Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Review of Breeders' Cup Works

I'm far from an expert when it comes to workouts for horses — in fact, unless you're really familiar with a horse, I would argue even people in the sport all their lives can be fooled — but there are also some obviously good and obviously bad works. Overall, I won't let a borderline work sway me too much either way, but as you'll see below, there are some that will probably push me to a given horse in each of these races:

DIRT MILE:

GOLDENCENTS: Lord, he looked good. Not asked for anything and he went in 59.2. I couldn't ask a horse for much more than that. A+.

TAPITURE: Didn't look like he's moving much at all but came home in :24. That's generally a fairly good sign. A-.

FED BIZ: I didn't like how he came around the turn and down the stretch. It seemed like he lost himself a bit there. He did finish up well, however, so ... B.

GOLDEN TICKET: Looked really choppy at the start of the work, but he gets asked a bit and comes home really nicely. I'd give the start a D and the finish a B+. Let's say C+ overall.

DISTAFF:

RIA ANTONIA: I can't really knock it, but it didn't do a ton for me either. B.

VALIANT EMILIA: Very so-so work. Just kind of casually running around the track with mild asking. B.

UNTAPABLE: She looked super eager. Came home strongly but didn't seem totally comfortable somehow. B+. (latest workout) Oy, she seems way too aggressive early for me given her running style. The time of :50.2 would give you the idea she didn't use herself much, but she looked like she wanted to go :45. I was disappointed. C-. Overall, B-

DON'T TELL SOPHIA: Rider was asking her pretty hard early, but she kicked home pretty nicely. Didn't love it, though. C.

TIZ MIDNIGHT: Meh. I didn't hate it but it looked difficult for her. C-.

JUVENILE FILLIES:

CRISTINA'S JOURNEY: Man, she looked really good. Absolutely no complaints. A.

FILLY AND MARE SPRINT:

SWEET REASON: Looked like a dream. Usually not a fan of urging in the stretch, but she responded so nicely while finishing up in :46.4. A.

STONETASTIC: Really got out coming around the turn. Ran nicely but I don't like to see that. B-.

TURF SPRINT:

RENEESGOTZIP: Worked 48.2 around the dogs, seemed to really like the turf. Not much of a gallop out but she was being restrained so hard I don't hold that against her. B+.

SILENTIO: I would have liked to see more here. Just seemed to mostly be moving up and down. The time was fair but ... eh. B.

MARCHMAN: He seemed to move well around the turn, quickened a bit (not a lot) when called on ... but still only ran :50. It was slower than it looked, i.e. probably not good. B-.

SWEET SWAP: The rider had to show the whip down the lane to run a 1:12.4. That's not good. Nice turn on the move had me thinking A/B, but he finished out poorly. C.

JUVENILE:

AMERICAN PHAROAH: Hoooo ... just looks like a dream coming down the stretch in :58.3. The gallop out had a bit of a hiccup, though, so ... I'll say A-. He looked even better in his latest work but, eh, he's scratched. BOOOOO.

LUCKY PLAYER: Really seemed to like the track -- strided out nicely. Rider never asked. He switched leads at the end of the work briefly which might not be a huge deal, but if it happens once, it could happen again. B.

SPRINT:

INDIANAPOLIS: A+ to the max. He looked unbelievably comfortable doing it while Secret Circle had to work a bit. He came off of a workmate in his last and had to get asked quite a bit more than in the co-work with SECRET CIRCLE. The time was extremely swift but it was only maybe a B. Overall, let's say A-.

PALACE: He was getting scrubbed on the whole work, but he seemed to get over the track really nicely. Came home in :23. Faster than I think I would have liked but hard to complain too much. A-.

SECRET CIRCLE: I thought INDIANAPOLIS was just better than SECRET CIRCLE in their co-work. His work yesterday was better but he just seems overly anxious. B+.

PRIVATE ZONE: Looked good, not flashy, just good. Slow, but good. B+.

MICO MARGARITA: Never got out of a gallop as far as I could tell. Nothing good, nothing bad! B.

SEEKING THE SHERIF: Broke very nicely out of the gate, galloped out beautifully, but seemed to tire at the end of his actual work. B.

RICH TAPESTRY: Came home very strongly but did get hit with the stick to do so ... B-.

BIG MACHER: Gallop out on this one was not great. B-.

SALUTOS AMIGOS: Not a work, but a win in the Bold Ruler at Belmont. It was a solid win, but he had to do a lot of work to get it. Hard to see him turning back around, flying across country, and winning after exerting that much energy. B- based on how much grinding he had to do to win.

FAST ANNA: Looked crazy aggressive and eager early, but seemed to tire getting to the wire. No bueno. C-.

TURF MILE:

OBVIOUSLY: Works :58.2 somehow despite going around the dogs and barely looking like he's trying. A+.

KAIGUN: Looked very comfortable, never asked, 1:00.2. I liked it. A.

TOM'S TRIBUTE: Time not great, but I liked the way he quickened when asked in the stretch. A-. Latest work: He didn't seem quite as great at the top of the stretch, but still looked nice and smooth. B+.

GRAND ARCH: Switched leads in the stretch, didn't look comfortable. Worked on dirt and is running on turf, so that's a minor pass, but not much. C.

CLASSIC:

CALIFORNIA CHROME: He looked READY TO GO right away in his work. Then, however, he seemed to slow down a bit up the backstretch. Coming into the stretch he looked ready to roll. Espinoza didn't ask him for anything and he looked ready to eat someone as he hit the wire. :59.3 for 5/8 and 1:12 with the gallop out. He looked like a monster. A.

SHARED BELIEF: Another time of 1:14.2 but this one was pretty awesome. He ran up inside horses on the rail and then flew after he passed them down the stretch. The splits were weird and incongruous, but that was mostly a function of the way they worked him with two other horses. I'll give it an A- only because he was being urged with gusto late in the work.

MAJESTIC HARBOR: Just skipped over the ground and never was asked while working in :48.3. A-.

PRAYER FOR RELIEF: The fact that he went :47.2 without any real asking was nice, but it wasn't flashy. Would have liked something flashy from a horse like this that hasn't shown much brilliance in his races. B+.

BAYERN: Interesting that Baffert worked him behind and outside a workmate. Not sure what the reason there was, and he got out juuuust a bit coming off the turn. He came home in :23.2 so that's impressive, but ... eh. B.

MORENO: He looked kind of tired coming down the stretch, and yet ... he went 1:12.3. Visually it looked bad, but the time was solid enough, so that's almost a reverse positive? B-.

CANDY BOY: Worked 7 furlongs in 1:25. He broke off behind a workmate, rolled up aside the workmate on the far turn, gets shaken up a bit coming down the stretch and comes home nicely. He looked a bit tired to me toward the end, and I feel like the 7 furlongs may have been too much. B-.

TONALIST: The time of 1:14.2 is uninspiring, and the jockey did ask him for a little bit more than I would have liked to see. I'll give it a C.

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