Arlington Park race 6: LIZ PENDENS looks like a threat as the lone legit speed, but she absolutely appears to need the lead and she may not get it with SOME TEMPER breaking from the rail. MY OPTION has the most class in the field, has won her only try on grass (back in October of last year), and likely wins if she runs back to her G3 triumph in the Arlington Oaks on polytrack. But who knows? I find it curious that she hasn't run on grass more than once, so that seems to tell me that her trainer thinks she's better on the poly. She may very well be good enough regardless, but at a short price, I'll pass. BOLD KITTEN is similar in that she has only run on the turf once, but I think she has a better turf pedigree and I would prefer her at a slightly longer price. Still, she'll be the second choice and not a great price for a horse with questions. I'M ALREADY SEXY is probably the most proven play, and she appears razor sharp after a 46.8 second work at Arlington on Tuesday. She has put up very strong speed figures on the turf time and time again and lost her last start by just half a length despite being checked badly in the first turn. She's the third choice on the morning line but likely the best value. I think BELLE CHAUSSEE is an intriguing longshot. After two unsuccessful tries against older horses this year, she gets a new trainer and a try against only her peers. Neither of those races were good trips, either, and she still ran respectably. I give her a good shot here.
Arlington Park race 7: The American St. Leger is a bizarre race at 1 11/16 miles. WIGMORE HALL could certainly win, but I think he would prefer softer ground and didn't run particularly well in the Million last year on his first start after shipping from England. All DARK COVE has done this year is won at 1.5 miles on the turf. He has won three straight and at 3/1 offers a modicum of value here. IOYA BIGTIME figures to contend but hasn't won since last September and appears outclassed here. He has been beaten by DARK COVE by at least eight lengths in those past three races. SUNTRACER was coming at DARK COVE late in the last race and only lost by 1.75 lengths, but he only wins when presented with a really fast pace to close into, and I don't see the pace being too hot in this one. NAJJAAR is winless in six starts on turf but should absolutely love the distance -- he put up a 110 speed figure in his only 1.5 mile start and this race will be his second off the layoff. He has worked lights out on turf recently and I think offers the best value among horses with established American form. This race likely comes down to how good DANDINO is, a shipper who was second in the G2 Hardwicke at Ascot last out. He ran pretty huge in a second at Woodbine last fall (111 speed fig), but in the past year he has now been from England to Canada to Hong Kong to England to Chicago. And as good as his form looks, he has won just once in his last 10 starts, and that wasn't on turf. I'm comfortable taking a shot with NAJJAAR here. UPDATE: DARK COVE scratched, which is probably best for my NAJJAAR wager as I thought DARK COVE had a real shot at going all the way on the lead. IOYA BIGTIME probably becomes more of a threat without DARK COVE to battle with on the front end.
Arlington Park race 8: I might be more excited for this race than the Million. The general impression of this race seems to be that it's wide open, but I'm not sure I subscribe to that notion. None of the Euros jump out enough for me to seriously consider them, and there are some clearly outclassed horses here, as well. JACK MILTON will likely be the post time favorite, but I think he'll have value. I like RYDILLUC somewhat as I think the pace will be relatively soft, but I really think 1 1/4 miles is too far for him. I also think ADMIRAL KITTEN would prefer shorter and won't get the pace he would be best closing into. STORMY LEN's only non-maiden win came at the head of a very slow race, and he won't get that with RYDILLUC in the field. DRAW TWO appears to be a different horse on softer going, but he won't get that and looks like a big underlay to me at 6/1. JACK MILTON just seems by far the best any way you measure it -- his third last time should have been a win if not for traffic issues, and Rosario is in for the ride. If I was trying to beat JACK MILTON, I would go with either TATTENHAM or AMEN KITTEN. AMEN KITTEN was only beaten by 4.25 lengths by JACK MILTON in April at Keeneland and he always seems to show up -- he hasn't been beaten by more than five lengths in any of his last five starts. The biggest knock for him is that his best performances have come, as you would expect, against stronger paces, and that's unlikely in this one. TATTENHAM is probably more defensible as he comes in off a narrow second against older horses going 1 1 1/4 miles. Of note is that he was beaten by HANGOVER KID two starts back, a horse that finished third in the G1 United Nations and won his last start Thursday against stakes company. I still think JACK MILTON is the standout here, but if he drifts down in price rather than up, I will be tempted to play against him.
Arlington Park race 9: MARKETING MIX is the clear draw and favorite in the Beverly D, but her last effort was huge and I wouldn't be all that surprised if she bounces a bit. STARFORMER has run well with any pace, and she's working lights out for Bill Mott recently and I don't take him shipping her in to face MARKETING MIX lightly. He's pretty conservative when he places horses and he doesn't run unless he thinks he has a real shot. Of the Euros, I prefer DANK over DUNTLE because she has exhibited more success going longer. At a mile, I would take DUNTLE, but at 1 3/16, it's DANK out of that group. Still, STARFORMER would be my play here as the likely fourth or fifth choice.
Arlington Park race 10: Who knows. And I say that because I really don't know what will happen up front. Dale Romans says he wants LITTLE MIKE to be on the lead, but he's going to have to absolutely go nuts to beat NATES MINESHAFT to it. If he does, neither horse has any chance. Actually, NATES MINESHAFT has no chance regardless, but I think those two will battle to some extent and create a quicker than average pace. A lot of people are giving INDY POINT a lot of love and he's undoubtedly the wise guy horse, but I think he's going to be pretty close to this early pace, too, based on how he pulled in his last race against inferior competition. I love RAHYSTRADA but he's just not good enough for this level. A true warrior, but just not good enough for these. THE APACHE has garnered a lot of attention as a Euro shipper but I don't think he has been as good going this long, period. REAL SOLUTION, HUNTER'S LIGHT and GRANDEUR are the three that I view as real contenders. If it magically rains, REAL SOLUTION might be the play, but otherwise I don't think he's as good on firm turf. As of March, HUNTER'S LIGHT was pretty much considered the best horse in the world as the favorite for the Dubai World Cup. He appears to be better on synthetic, but he has had plenty of success on turf, too, and hasn't exactly been embarrassed on turf in either of his last two starts in Signapore or Germany. In fact, it's all that travel that's probably my biggest concern. I like GRANDEUR despite his likely role as the favorite here. He won at 1 1/8 and 1 1/2 miles at Hollywood Park last winter, and was second by 1.5 lengths in another despite getting no pace to close into. MIDNIGHT EDIT: I may live to regret this, but HUNTER'S LIGHT seems like the value play here. I'd rather play him at 8/1 than GRANDEUR from post 13 at 7/2.
Del Mar race 2: Oh boy, 2-year-old fillies. There are five first-time starters and I would normally look primarily at one of them to win because the second-time starters here didn't do much in their debuts, but there's not a lot to look at. The first-time starter I like the most is NATIVE EMPRESS on the rail, but she certainly doesn't do a lot for me. Her trainer only wins with 5% of his first-time starters, so that's not a great track record to bet into. I'm totally split on CAL GAL vs. MEINERTZHAGENI. The latter put up a better speed figure and has a better trainer for second-time starters, but CAL GAL dueled on the lead and still held on for third in her debut. Gun to my head, I'm taking CAL GAL as speed has been good at 5.5 furlongs at Del Mar, but if there's a big odds disparity, I may go with MEINERTZHAGENI.
Del Mar race 3: My initial impression was that this race would be fairly slow up front, but upon further examination, even though there are only two real speed horses, it seems likely they will both go for the lead with all they have. BENCH BEAUTY is interesting as a horse who may have "finally figured it out" with back-to-back speed figs of 80+ here at Del Mar, but she hasn't ever run well at a mile. My three top contenders are HARD BUNS, CHESTNUT MOON and JERRY'SHONEYCAROL. I would guess that CHESTNUT MOON will be the favorite based on a class drop just three starts removed from a second-place finish in a $40,000 optional claimer, but HARD BUNS also figures to battle for favoritism. I don't like either as much as JERRY'SHONEYCAROL at what figures to be a much larger price. The former two are either on or close to the pace runners, and in addition to what I see being a fairly hot pace, the front hasn't been the place to be in Del Mar routes. JERRY'SHONEYCAROL gets back to a route after three unsuccessful tries going 6 or 5.5 furlongs. Her best effort came on Jan. 13 when she went a mile at Golden Gate in a $50,000 optional claimer and was beaten just two lengths. Getting back to her preferred distance at this much lower level should work and offers great value at a 15/1 ML. UPDATE: Well, that sucks. JERRY'SHONEYCAROL has scratched. I like CHESTNUT MOON better than HARD BUNS, but shit, I felt good about this one.
Saratoga race 7: The pace is HOT HOT HOT in this one. ALE has had bad trips in his last two races yet only lost both by a combined five lengths. Only two horses are listed as true off the pace horses -- LIQUIDITY TRAP and GOLD MEGILLAH -- but I'm not overly taken by either of those. GOLD MEGILLAH has made a habit of finishing well but not well enough, so I have little interest there at 7/2 in the favorite's role. LIQUIDITY TRAP is tempting if only because he's yet to get a strong pace to close into, yet he still has ran very well. The one race he did get a *little* early pace in was a $25,000 claimer that he won two starts back. I still like ALE. This is an improving 3-year-old who is dropping this low on the claiming ladder for the first time -- he was in a $75,000 optional claimer last time and a $50,000 race before that. He'll sit off the pace and get first run on the other late runners. UPDATE: LIQUIDITY TRAP scratched, so I feel even better about ALE.
Saratoga race 8: This race is basically the opposite of the last -- should be a SLOW PACE up front. If NOW AND THEN's dirt form transfers to this first try on dirt, I think he walks on the lead and draws off to win by open lengths. But I just generally find the way this horse has been campaigned as confusing. I don't think he's going to be as good on turf, period. I have no interest in him in the favorite's role. I like three horses here to some extent: HAILSTONE, LEAD SINGER and KATHY'S KITTEN. HAILSTONE is the "back class" pick -- last year at this time, he was running third in the John's Call while notching a 105 speed fig, and he even ran a somewhat decent sixth in the Grade 1 Sword Dance exactly a year ago Sunday. But he has been off his game recently and was no threat in an eighth-place finish in his last start against lesser competition than these. I have a fairly hard time separating LEAD SINGER and KATHY'S KITTEN, but I do think LEAD SINGER has a higher ceiling than KATHY'S KITTEN as this is just his sixth start, and he sold for $315,000 last February as a 2-year-old. He worked a bullet on the turf on Monday and is double the odds of KATHY'S KITTEN on the morning line. He seems worth a shot. UPDATE: HAILSTONE scratched, so I feel better about ignoring his back class.
Saratoga race 9: The Sword Dancer! Great name for a race. STORMY LORD and OPTIMIZER are the only two pace players in this race, and there's a chance STORMY LORD will scratch, although I think he's likely to run as somewhat of a rabbit for entrymate BIG BLUE KITTEN. Therefore, I think the pace will be decent for this 1.5 mile race on the turf. My general reaction to this race is that I think there's a solid chance for a big price. Most of the horses in this race have run well enough at some point to win a race of this caliber, so it just comes down to who shows up today. BOISTEROUS and BIG BLUE KITTEN, in that order, do indeed win if they run back to their last races. But both of those races were the best of their careers. If they run their "norm," so to speak, they're eminently beatable. And that's what I'll try to do here. TWILIGHT ECLIPSE is sort of interesting as I have him ranked "next best," but taking 5/1 on him when he was soundly beaten by BOISTEROUS last out and beaten by OPTIMIZER before that is hard to justify. TANNERY is interesting to me. His last race is a complete throwout due to the extremely slow pace there, and he hasn't been beaten by more than 2.5 lengths in any race with a better than average pace. At 20/1, he seems worth a shot. OPTIMIZER is the other horse I would take just mainly based on the projected slow pace, but this horse probably really needs a break -- he runs almost every month and he hasn't won since February. If STORMY LORD does scratch, he's the play, but otherwise I'm happy to go elsewhere. Additionally, if I had to decide between BOISTEROUS and BIG BLUE KITTEN, the decision is fairly easy: BOISTEROUS is quite a bit better in my book.
To recap:
SAR7: ALE (8/1 ML)
AP6: I'M ALREADY SEXY (5/1 ML)
SAR8: LEAD SINGER (12/1 ML)
AP7: NAJJAAR (6/1 ML)
SAR9: TANNERY (20/1 ML)
AP8: JACK MILTON (3/1 ML)
DMR2: CAL GAL (5/2 ML)
AP9: STARFORMER (8/1 ML)
DMR3: JERRY'SHONEYCAROL (15/1 ML)
AP10: HUNTER'S LIGHT (8/1 ML)
Friday, August 16, 2013
Friday, August 2, 2013
The Whitney
When I first started this blog and sort-of-tongue-in-cheekily named it "Wothism," I had aspirations of tackling all sorts of weighty topics and sharing deep thoughts that would change the world.
As it turns out, "Wothism" has evolved (nah, devolved) into nothing more than a horse racing blog.
Oh well.
I'm 2-for-2 on my last two posts (OXBOW in the Preakness and PALACE MALICE in the Belmont), so I'm trying to make it three in a row in this Saturday's Grade 1 Whitney Invitational Handicap at Saratoga.
Beyond the five-week Triple Crown season, the month of August is undoubtedly the best time to be a horse racing fan. In fact, I think it would be hard to say that, taken as a whole, it's not better than the Triple Crown season, period. The dual meets of Saratoga and Del Mar on opposite coasts are the pinnacle of horse racing. Everyone on the West Coast wants to win at Del Mar, located about 30 minutes north of San Diego.
And everyone — and I mean everyone — wants to win at Saratoga.
Saratoga, or as those in the industry like to call it, THE SPA, is located in a town that I generally view as a throwback to a different era. I visited Saratoga Springs for a day or two when I was working for Michels back in 2010. Unfortunately, it was a June trip, so I didn't get to see the track in action, and I was actually doing, you know, work, so I didn't get much time to hang out in the city. In fact, my best memory of the city is of watching Lakers-Celtics game 7 in some non-descript bar across the street from the hotel.
I also didn't totally understand where I was in 2010. I KNEW of Saratoga and I was excited to be there, but I didn't *know* Saratoga. Most of my trip was spent driving around aimlessly when it's really a great city to walk around in.
Anyway, the Whitney is probably the second or third biggest race at Saratoga. Maybe 2A or 2B. There's no doubt that the Travers is the biggest draw, and then there's the Woodward and the Whitney right behind it.
The 2013 Whitney looks particularly stellar. A Grade 1 race for older horses, it's a Win and You're In for the Breeders' Cup Classic — the biggest of big races on the first Saturday of November.
Here's the field from the rail out with their BRIS preferred running style and Quirin points after:
1 - Successful Dan (S4)
2 - Mucho Macho Man (E/P8)
3 - Fort Larned (E4)
4 - Cross Traffic (E/P8)
5 - Ron the Greek (S1)
6 - Alpha (E/P5)
7 - Csaba (E/P5)
8 - Fast Falcon (S4)
FORT LARNED is the defending Breeders' Cup Classic champion and undoubtedly the horse to beat. After a rough start to 2013 — he threw his jockey at the start of his first race in March and then ran a very dull and well-beaten fifth in a subsequent April start — he ran huge in the Stephen Foster on June 15 to reclaim his place atop the handicap division.
What makes this such a great race is that you can make a case for pretty much every horse in here. If you had to throw one out, you'd probably go with FAST FALCON, a horse that has only won 1-in-15 starts ... but as we'll get to, I think the likely pace scenario in this race favors late-running horses. CSABA seems unlikely until you consider that the best speed figure races of his career have come when the pace is extremely quick, which it's likely to be on Saturday. ALPHA hasn't finished better than fourth in his last five starts, but his last win came six starts ago in the Travers, and he's 3-for-3 lifetime at Saratoga.
And then you get to the five that most people will consider real contenders:
RON THE GREEK is the true late-runner in this group, and he figures to get a tremendous pace to rally into. Despite a relatively slow six furlongs from FORT LARNED in last year's Whitney, RON THE GREEK made up four lengths in the stretch of last year's race to take second just 1.25 lengths behind FORT LARNED. With a faster pace, you can make a strong argument that he would zip right by a more weary FORT LARNED.
CROSS TRAFFIC ran a relatively amazing race in the Met Mile. He threw down fractions of 22.4 and 44.8 seconds, which are just absurdly fast for a mile race. And yet he still nearly held on to win, just getting nipped by a nose. He's the speed of the speed.
FORT LARNED is the champ. If he runs like he did in the Breeders' Cup Classic, they're all running for second. His last race looks extremely impressive on paper — in fact, on paper, it looks more impressive than the BC win — but I wasn't as impressed. He opened up a clear easy lead, was never pressured, and ran away from everyone else. He won't be able to do that here. So, as the favorite, I have no doubt that he's vulnerable.
MUCHO MACHO MAN is a horse that I've been happily betting against for a while now, but his Suburban win last summer was as good as any race FORT LARNED has ever run, and he was just half a length back in the Breeders' Cup Classic last year. His recent form has been poor — a bizarre DNF in his first start of 2013 where he just didn't want to run, apparently, and then a very well-beaten third in his last start — but his best puts him right there with the best others here have.
SUCCESSFUL DAN is likely the most talented horse in this field. A winner of eight of this 13 lifetime starts, his best race ever came back on May 4, 2012, when he beat FORT LARNED and MUCHO MACHO MAN at Churchill Downs in the Grade 2 Alysheba. He only had one more race last year, when he finished three lengths back of FORT LARNED (FORT LARNED got away with slow early fractions that day) before missing the rest of the year. He returned this April to win the Ben Ali while on the lead, but he had the worst race of his career on June 15, finishing 15 lengths back of FORT LARNED while putting in no late run.
All in all, there's really no doubt in my mind that the pace is going to be hot. As a general rule, that would be cause for throwing out the frontrunners and looking for a closer. But what makes it so difficult to do that is that some of these frontrunners have run huge/better on the sharp end of a hot pace. Sometimes, a pace can be so hot that even the late runners have to expend more energy just to stay somewhat close early, and that flattens out their late run. That could happen here. CSABA's best race, a 108 speed figure, was earned on the front end of a 46 and 3/5 second pace (112-123-89). The exploits of CROSS TRAFFIC and FORT LARNED have already been detailed.
BUT ... I am indeed looking at a closer in this race. Here's why:
MUCHO MACHO MAN: I'm not suddenly going to start betting on him now when he's completely off-form. I don't know what's going on with him this year, but I don't trust his trainer further than I can throw her (and she's not exactly skinny). Even if he's miraculously fully cranked and back to form, he's shown an enormous propensity for finishing second or third. Unless he sits further back than he typically has, he's going to be in the heat of that early pace battle and really up against it.
CSABA: As mentioned, he won both of the races that have had intense pace battles. And, in one of them, he sat a couple lengths off the battle and went by in the stretch. But those races were at a mile and 1 1/16 miles, and the extra 1/8 here against this competition is just too much to ask. He was fifth, beaten nine lengths, in his only other Grade 1 try to date.
ALPHA: This is the easiest toss in my book. He hasn't been effective running from further back, and he hasn't run any race that suggests that he could beat the likes of these even on his best day, which is something you can say of almost any other runner. I honestly think he should be 30/1 or higher.
FORT LARNED: If he runs back to last year's Breeders' Cup Classic, everyone else is likely running for second. But I can even poke holes in that race compared to that one. In that race, GAME ON DUDE broke poorly and FORT LARNED didn't have to work hard to get the early lead after the first quarter mile. From there, yes, he worked pretty darn hard to keep it. But he was able to settle into stride fairly comfortably on the lead. He won't have that luxury today. Either he sits off the pace -- which he has only done sucessfully once, in last year's Whitney -- or he's going to work every step of the way to fend off other pace battlers. His last race was extremely fast, but he had no pace pressure. This race will be both extremely fast and feature a lot of pressure. It's a huge ask at a small price.
CROSS TRAFFIC: He hasn't run further than a mile, but given the insane early pace he set in the Met Mile, he still looked pretty good at the end. I think it's harder to stay away from him than FORT LARNED because we just don't know how good he might be with just four starts under his belt. Given that he's likely to be a short-priced second choice, though, I'm pretty comfortable letting him beat me with a great performance if he has it in him.
I'm tempted by all of the closers, honestly. Here's why:
FAST FALCON: Even though he has won just one race, FAST FALCON is appealing because he hasn't ever really been involved in a race that figures to be this fast. Only two of his races have seen paces that are faster than average, and those were only moderately so. And he was second in both, beaten by CROSS TRAFFIC and CIGAR STREET, another very good horse. So if he gets that really fast pace that I expect, who knows? He'll be coming, and he'll be the highest-priced closer (although I expect CSABA and ALPHA) to go off at higher odds.
RON THE GREEK: When the pace is hot up front, this guy just wins. The only exception was his third last out in the Stephen Foster, but I already discussed how FORT LARNED had such an advantage with an unpressured early lead. The knock on him is that he's likely to be the shortest priced closer and there's a little bit of a lack of brilliance here. He's a very good horse, but is he a great horse? I'm not sure, and I generally think you need to be a great horse to win this race.
SUCCESSFUL DAN: I'm throwing his last race out because he got squeezed at the top of the stretch, which cut off any momentum he had. He wasn't beating FORT LARNED that night, but I don't think he would have finished fourth and 15 lengths back had that not happened. He sat third, about five lengths off FORT LARNED for much of that race, and I think that's precisely the sweet spot in this race. He'll get first run on RON THE GREEK and FAST FALCON, and he won't be caught up in the early pace battle. The worry is that, at age 7 and with two lackluster starts this year in terms of speed figures (although you can't fault his first start as he was on the lead and only went as fast as he needed to), he's just not the same horse anymore. But I'm willing to take some solid odds (I'll guess 10/1) and bet that he's ready to run back to his peak, which puts him right there.
SUCCESSFUL DAN is the pick.
I'm also involved in a qualifying tournament that gives out seats in the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge in November worth $10,000, so here are the remainder of my picks:
Saratoga race 8: I don't see much pace in this race at all. I like ABILIO, a horse that figures to be right on the pace and has run very well when allowed to keep the pace slow. He steps down off of a number of stakes tries into this optional claimer, which is tough but not overly so.
Saratoga race 9: This is a really tough race. LAUGH OUT LOUD is the likely post-time favorite, making the drop from the Grade 1 Just A Game in June. There's a clear class edge and she's getting Lasix for the first time, but the layoff and the fact that she didn't really run that well in June leave plenty of questions. BAFFLE and ASSATEAGUE figure to push each other on the front end enough that I don't see either of them going all the way. RUTHENIA seems to fit well here, especially with the pace up front, but she'll be a very short price, too. I'm going with OPEN WATER. I actually have her ranked as my top horse because I think she has been somewhat unlucky going a mile on the grass with a lack of pace. When she got some pace to run at last summer in the G1 Del Mar Oaks, she led at the top of the stretch but held on for third. She's capable of winning if she runs back to that.
Saratoga race 10: As discussed at length above, SUCCESSFUL DAN.
Saratoga race 11: I bet UPTOWN GAL at 38/1 on the first day of the Saratoga meet. This time, she's 5/1 as part of an entry, but I'm still betting her again. She figures to be close enough to the pace but not right on it, and that's a perfect spot in these wild turf sprints. If she happens to scratch, I would go with AVE'S HALO, who finished second in a race of similar quality last summer at Saratoga.
Saratoga race 12: This is a pretty impossible race, but the horse with the highest ceiling is ST. SINCERE. He hasn't run since last August, but dropping into a $25k maiden claimer and getting his first start with trainer George Weaver is enough for me. RYVIT would be my second choice if ST. SINCERE scratches or takes more play than I hope.
Del Mar race 1: These baby maiden races can be difficult, but they also present great opportunities. You can make a case for almost any of these, but TANZANITE CAT is by a 15% first-time sire and runs for a 31% first-time trainer. He also ripped off a 46.6 half-mile work on July 28, so he's sharp as a tack.
Del Mar race 2: GOLDEN MEXICO is the only true speed here and so should get a much easier trip than his last, when he ran second after setting an opening split of 22.6 seconds.
Del Mar race 3: There's not much speed in this race at all. That said, these "clear-cut" races often seem to turn out opposite of what you assume because jockeys aren't stupid. They can handicap, too, and they'll realize that, whoa, nobody's going to want the lead here! So then three or four of them gun for it, and ... it's a blazing fast pace. I think KEY DECISION goes to the front, but TRUELEE SCRAPPIN is the pick as he'll stay close enough to blow by in the stretch. He's only run once in the past two years, but that comeback race was a nice fourth at Hollywood. I think he's just too good for these.
Del Mar race 4: None of these horses do much for me. My preferences were for either the first-time starter TOP MARQUEE or my actual pick, MR LEMON TREE, who might as well be a firster since he hasn't run in 11 months. But despite poor starts in both of those races he ran last summer at Del Mar, he finished within 4.5 lengths of the winner in each race. He has shown speed in some works and put in six furlongs in his last work, so he should be fit and a nice price.
Del Mar race 5: This race has plenty of pace. It sets up tremendously well for YOU KNOW I KNOW, a horse that won from off a similarly contested pace two starts back at Hollywood Park. TONES would be the backup selection here as he figures to sit a bit off the pace before coming home with a solid run.
As it turns out, "Wothism" has evolved (nah, devolved) into nothing more than a horse racing blog.
Oh well.
I'm 2-for-2 on my last two posts (OXBOW in the Preakness and PALACE MALICE in the Belmont), so I'm trying to make it three in a row in this Saturday's Grade 1 Whitney Invitational Handicap at Saratoga.
Beyond the five-week Triple Crown season, the month of August is undoubtedly the best time to be a horse racing fan. In fact, I think it would be hard to say that, taken as a whole, it's not better than the Triple Crown season, period. The dual meets of Saratoga and Del Mar on opposite coasts are the pinnacle of horse racing. Everyone on the West Coast wants to win at Del Mar, located about 30 minutes north of San Diego.
And everyone — and I mean everyone — wants to win at Saratoga.
Saratoga, or as those in the industry like to call it, THE SPA, is located in a town that I generally view as a throwback to a different era. I visited Saratoga Springs for a day or two when I was working for Michels back in 2010. Unfortunately, it was a June trip, so I didn't get to see the track in action, and I was actually doing, you know, work, so I didn't get much time to hang out in the city. In fact, my best memory of the city is of watching Lakers-Celtics game 7 in some non-descript bar across the street from the hotel.
I also didn't totally understand where I was in 2010. I KNEW of Saratoga and I was excited to be there, but I didn't *know* Saratoga. Most of my trip was spent driving around aimlessly when it's really a great city to walk around in.
Anyway, the Whitney is probably the second or third biggest race at Saratoga. Maybe 2A or 2B. There's no doubt that the Travers is the biggest draw, and then there's the Woodward and the Whitney right behind it.
The 2013 Whitney looks particularly stellar. A Grade 1 race for older horses, it's a Win and You're In for the Breeders' Cup Classic — the biggest of big races on the first Saturday of November.
Here's the field from the rail out with their BRIS preferred running style and Quirin points after:
1 - Successful Dan (S4)
2 - Mucho Macho Man (E/P8)
3 - Fort Larned (E4)
4 - Cross Traffic (E/P8)
5 - Ron the Greek (S1)
6 - Alpha (E/P5)
7 - Csaba (E/P5)
8 - Fast Falcon (S4)
FORT LARNED is the defending Breeders' Cup Classic champion and undoubtedly the horse to beat. After a rough start to 2013 — he threw his jockey at the start of his first race in March and then ran a very dull and well-beaten fifth in a subsequent April start — he ran huge in the Stephen Foster on June 15 to reclaim his place atop the handicap division.
What makes this such a great race is that you can make a case for pretty much every horse in here. If you had to throw one out, you'd probably go with FAST FALCON, a horse that has only won 1-in-15 starts ... but as we'll get to, I think the likely pace scenario in this race favors late-running horses. CSABA seems unlikely until you consider that the best speed figure races of his career have come when the pace is extremely quick, which it's likely to be on Saturday. ALPHA hasn't finished better than fourth in his last five starts, but his last win came six starts ago in the Travers, and he's 3-for-3 lifetime at Saratoga.
And then you get to the five that most people will consider real contenders:
RON THE GREEK is the true late-runner in this group, and he figures to get a tremendous pace to rally into. Despite a relatively slow six furlongs from FORT LARNED in last year's Whitney, RON THE GREEK made up four lengths in the stretch of last year's race to take second just 1.25 lengths behind FORT LARNED. With a faster pace, you can make a strong argument that he would zip right by a more weary FORT LARNED.
CROSS TRAFFIC ran a relatively amazing race in the Met Mile. He threw down fractions of 22.4 and 44.8 seconds, which are just absurdly fast for a mile race. And yet he still nearly held on to win, just getting nipped by a nose. He's the speed of the speed.
FORT LARNED is the champ. If he runs like he did in the Breeders' Cup Classic, they're all running for second. His last race looks extremely impressive on paper — in fact, on paper, it looks more impressive than the BC win — but I wasn't as impressed. He opened up a clear easy lead, was never pressured, and ran away from everyone else. He won't be able to do that here. So, as the favorite, I have no doubt that he's vulnerable.
MUCHO MACHO MAN is a horse that I've been happily betting against for a while now, but his Suburban win last summer was as good as any race FORT LARNED has ever run, and he was just half a length back in the Breeders' Cup Classic last year. His recent form has been poor — a bizarre DNF in his first start of 2013 where he just didn't want to run, apparently, and then a very well-beaten third in his last start — but his best puts him right there with the best others here have.
SUCCESSFUL DAN is likely the most talented horse in this field. A winner of eight of this 13 lifetime starts, his best race ever came back on May 4, 2012, when he beat FORT LARNED and MUCHO MACHO MAN at Churchill Downs in the Grade 2 Alysheba. He only had one more race last year, when he finished three lengths back of FORT LARNED (FORT LARNED got away with slow early fractions that day) before missing the rest of the year. He returned this April to win the Ben Ali while on the lead, but he had the worst race of his career on June 15, finishing 15 lengths back of FORT LARNED while putting in no late run.
All in all, there's really no doubt in my mind that the pace is going to be hot. As a general rule, that would be cause for throwing out the frontrunners and looking for a closer. But what makes it so difficult to do that is that some of these frontrunners have run huge/better on the sharp end of a hot pace. Sometimes, a pace can be so hot that even the late runners have to expend more energy just to stay somewhat close early, and that flattens out their late run. That could happen here. CSABA's best race, a 108 speed figure, was earned on the front end of a 46 and 3/5 second pace (112-123-89). The exploits of CROSS TRAFFIC and FORT LARNED have already been detailed.
BUT ... I am indeed looking at a closer in this race. Here's why:
MUCHO MACHO MAN: I'm not suddenly going to start betting on him now when he's completely off-form. I don't know what's going on with him this year, but I don't trust his trainer further than I can throw her (and she's not exactly skinny). Even if he's miraculously fully cranked and back to form, he's shown an enormous propensity for finishing second or third. Unless he sits further back than he typically has, he's going to be in the heat of that early pace battle and really up against it.
CSABA: As mentioned, he won both of the races that have had intense pace battles. And, in one of them, he sat a couple lengths off the battle and went by in the stretch. But those races were at a mile and 1 1/16 miles, and the extra 1/8 here against this competition is just too much to ask. He was fifth, beaten nine lengths, in his only other Grade 1 try to date.
ALPHA: This is the easiest toss in my book. He hasn't been effective running from further back, and he hasn't run any race that suggests that he could beat the likes of these even on his best day, which is something you can say of almost any other runner. I honestly think he should be 30/1 or higher.
FORT LARNED: If he runs back to last year's Breeders' Cup Classic, everyone else is likely running for second. But I can even poke holes in that race compared to that one. In that race, GAME ON DUDE broke poorly and FORT LARNED didn't have to work hard to get the early lead after the first quarter mile. From there, yes, he worked pretty darn hard to keep it. But he was able to settle into stride fairly comfortably on the lead. He won't have that luxury today. Either he sits off the pace -- which he has only done sucessfully once, in last year's Whitney -- or he's going to work every step of the way to fend off other pace battlers. His last race was extremely fast, but he had no pace pressure. This race will be both extremely fast and feature a lot of pressure. It's a huge ask at a small price.
CROSS TRAFFIC: He hasn't run further than a mile, but given the insane early pace he set in the Met Mile, he still looked pretty good at the end. I think it's harder to stay away from him than FORT LARNED because we just don't know how good he might be with just four starts under his belt. Given that he's likely to be a short-priced second choice, though, I'm pretty comfortable letting him beat me with a great performance if he has it in him.
I'm tempted by all of the closers, honestly. Here's why:
FAST FALCON: Even though he has won just one race, FAST FALCON is appealing because he hasn't ever really been involved in a race that figures to be this fast. Only two of his races have seen paces that are faster than average, and those were only moderately so. And he was second in both, beaten by CROSS TRAFFIC and CIGAR STREET, another very good horse. So if he gets that really fast pace that I expect, who knows? He'll be coming, and he'll be the highest-priced closer (although I expect CSABA and ALPHA) to go off at higher odds.
RON THE GREEK: When the pace is hot up front, this guy just wins. The only exception was his third last out in the Stephen Foster, but I already discussed how FORT LARNED had such an advantage with an unpressured early lead. The knock on him is that he's likely to be the shortest priced closer and there's a little bit of a lack of brilliance here. He's a very good horse, but is he a great horse? I'm not sure, and I generally think you need to be a great horse to win this race.
SUCCESSFUL DAN: I'm throwing his last race out because he got squeezed at the top of the stretch, which cut off any momentum he had. He wasn't beating FORT LARNED that night, but I don't think he would have finished fourth and 15 lengths back had that not happened. He sat third, about five lengths off FORT LARNED for much of that race, and I think that's precisely the sweet spot in this race. He'll get first run on RON THE GREEK and FAST FALCON, and he won't be caught up in the early pace battle. The worry is that, at age 7 and with two lackluster starts this year in terms of speed figures (although you can't fault his first start as he was on the lead and only went as fast as he needed to), he's just not the same horse anymore. But I'm willing to take some solid odds (I'll guess 10/1) and bet that he's ready to run back to his peak, which puts him right there.
SUCCESSFUL DAN is the pick.
I'm also involved in a qualifying tournament that gives out seats in the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge in November worth $10,000, so here are the remainder of my picks:
Saratoga race 8: I don't see much pace in this race at all. I like ABILIO, a horse that figures to be right on the pace and has run very well when allowed to keep the pace slow. He steps down off of a number of stakes tries into this optional claimer, which is tough but not overly so.
Saratoga race 9: This is a really tough race. LAUGH OUT LOUD is the likely post-time favorite, making the drop from the Grade 1 Just A Game in June. There's a clear class edge and she's getting Lasix for the first time, but the layoff and the fact that she didn't really run that well in June leave plenty of questions. BAFFLE and ASSATEAGUE figure to push each other on the front end enough that I don't see either of them going all the way. RUTHENIA seems to fit well here, especially with the pace up front, but she'll be a very short price, too. I'm going with OPEN WATER. I actually have her ranked as my top horse because I think she has been somewhat unlucky going a mile on the grass with a lack of pace. When she got some pace to run at last summer in the G1 Del Mar Oaks, she led at the top of the stretch but held on for third. She's capable of winning if she runs back to that.
Saratoga race 10: As discussed at length above, SUCCESSFUL DAN.
Saratoga race 11: I bet UPTOWN GAL at 38/1 on the first day of the Saratoga meet. This time, she's 5/1 as part of an entry, but I'm still betting her again. She figures to be close enough to the pace but not right on it, and that's a perfect spot in these wild turf sprints. If she happens to scratch, I would go with AVE'S HALO, who finished second in a race of similar quality last summer at Saratoga.
Saratoga race 12: This is a pretty impossible race, but the horse with the highest ceiling is ST. SINCERE. He hasn't run since last August, but dropping into a $25k maiden claimer and getting his first start with trainer George Weaver is enough for me. RYVIT would be my second choice if ST. SINCERE scratches or takes more play than I hope.
Del Mar race 1: These baby maiden races can be difficult, but they also present great opportunities. You can make a case for almost any of these, but TANZANITE CAT is by a 15% first-time sire and runs for a 31% first-time trainer. He also ripped off a 46.6 half-mile work on July 28, so he's sharp as a tack.
Del Mar race 2: GOLDEN MEXICO is the only true speed here and so should get a much easier trip than his last, when he ran second after setting an opening split of 22.6 seconds.
Del Mar race 3: There's not much speed in this race at all. That said, these "clear-cut" races often seem to turn out opposite of what you assume because jockeys aren't stupid. They can handicap, too, and they'll realize that, whoa, nobody's going to want the lead here! So then three or four of them gun for it, and ... it's a blazing fast pace. I think KEY DECISION goes to the front, but TRUELEE SCRAPPIN is the pick as he'll stay close enough to blow by in the stretch. He's only run once in the past two years, but that comeback race was a nice fourth at Hollywood. I think he's just too good for these.
Del Mar race 4: None of these horses do much for me. My preferences were for either the first-time starter TOP MARQUEE or my actual pick, MR LEMON TREE, who might as well be a firster since he hasn't run in 11 months. But despite poor starts in both of those races he ran last summer at Del Mar, he finished within 4.5 lengths of the winner in each race. He has shown speed in some works and put in six furlongs in his last work, so he should be fit and a nice price.
Del Mar race 5: This race has plenty of pace. It sets up tremendously well for YOU KNOW I KNOW, a horse that won from off a similarly contested pace two starts back at Hollywood Park. TONES would be the backup selection here as he figures to sit a bit off the pace before coming home with a solid run.
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