This is potentially the best chance for an American horse to win a turf race at this year's Breeders' Cup. Let's get right to it.
PACE OUTLOOK: DAYATTHESPA figures to take them as long as far as she can, and frankly, without much pace pressure, that could be all the way. We could see PARRANDA or RUSTY SLIPPER sent from their outside posts, but the pace seems slow regardless.
GENERAL OUTLOOK: The Euros seem vulnerable here. They're all under 8-1, and I certainly can't get behind any of them at those prices. This is definitely the B team from Europe, and that even includes DANK, who has been sidelined since June.
PACE OUTLOOK: DAYATTHESPA figures to take them as long as far as she can, and frankly, without much pace pressure, that could be all the way. We could see PARRANDA or RUSTY SLIPPER sent from their outside posts, but the pace seems slow regardless.
GENERAL OUTLOOK: The Euros seem vulnerable here. They're all under 8-1, and I certainly can't get behind any of them at those prices. This is definitely the B team from Europe, and that even includes DANK, who has been sidelined since June.
1. Abaco (J. Ortiz/McGaughey) 15-1: Made a nice run in the Flower Bowl to finish 1.25 lengths back of STEPHANIE'S KITTEN. She hasn't won a Grade 1 yet, but she hasn't missed by much, and 15-1 seems like a gift.
2. Just The Judge (Spencer/Hills) 5-1: The EP Taylor was reallllly slow early. 1:16.4 for six furlongs is barely a gallop. I don't expect this race to be *that* slow, and so I would look back to the Beverly D for a more representative effort. There, she was a neck behind STEPHANIE'S KITTEN. I think she'll be close, but doesn't strike me as brilliant enough to win here.
3. Dank (Moore/Stoute) 5-2: Her win here last year was super impressive, but she came into that one riding a two-race win streak and she had been 3-for-4 in 2013 entering the race. This year, she has finished third and fifth, beaten by 8 and 10 lengths, respectively. At 5-2, there are plenty of other options.
4. Dayatthespa (Castellano/C. Brown) 8-1: It's all about the distance here. Can she get it? The pedigree leans on the no side of the fence, but she has won at 1 1/8 (with the benefit of a slow pace). Her last effort was her best to date. I would like better than 8-1, but she's a clear must include no matter what you decide on the win end.
5. Secret Gesture (Smullen/Beckett) 6-1: Has typically run longer than 1 1/4 miles, but she has run second and third in a couple Grade 1's in Europe, so that would theoretically be plenty good to win here in America. She has also run better on good ground than soft or heavy (in general) so that bodes well. Of the Euro contingent, this is the one I fancy most (see what I did there? FANCY).
6. Fiesolana (Billy Lee/McCreery) 8-1: This one might be interesting at a mile, but 1 1/4 seems too ambitious at this stage of her career.
7. Emollient (Napravnik/Mott) 12-1: When this one has come up against the true top class fillies and mares from out East, she has disappointed fairly consistently. Maybe she just hates being out East. She ran a very nice race here last year, but I can't shake the feeling that she's just a cut below no matter what happens here.
8. Irish Mission (Rosario/Clement) 20-1: In a field of horses with plenty of distance concerns, this one seems to relish it. Closed into a crawling pace last out in the Rodeo Drive, so if she gets more to run at this time ... worth a shot at 20-1.
9. Parranda (Trujillo/Hollendorfer) 20-1: Wasn't good enough on that aforementioned crawling pace last time and seems like nothing more than a solid Grade 3 performer. That's not good enough here.
10. Stephanie's Kitten (Velasquez/C. Brown) 3-1: We all wondered if she had lost a step this year after she hadn't shown her prior early pace, but she was only a couple lengths off of a slow-ish pace in the Flower Bowl, which she powered by to win with ease in her last. She's obviously very good and a real threat to win, but the fact remains that she has only won once this year and may be over the top here. I'll pass at this price.
11. Rusty Slipper (Gryder/Motion) 20-1: I would dismiss her immediately if she wasn't trained by Graham Motion, who I would say is typically fairly conservative with placing his horses. She has steadily improved in her three starts since coming back from a year-plus layoff in June, but the water is much deeper here.
SYSTEM PLAYS: Very small plays on both DAYATTHESPA and ABACO. Nobody else is close.
SUMMARY: DAYATTHESPA, ABACO, SECRET GESTURE AND IRISH MISSION look pretty good to me here. DANK and STEPHANIE'S KITTEN both scare me a bit, but they're obvious plays against at low prices.
SYSTEM PLAYS: Very small plays on both DAYATTHESPA and ABACO. Nobody else is close.
SUMMARY: DAYATTHESPA, ABACO, SECRET GESTURE AND IRISH MISSION look pretty good to me here. DANK and STEPHANIE'S KITTEN both scare me a bit, but they're obvious plays against at low prices.
No comments:
Post a Comment