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AWESOME FEATHER won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies
two years ago and is undefeated in 10 lifetime starts.
Can she make it 11 for 11 in this year's Ladies' Classic? |
Now the real fun begins.
There are six races to break down for Friday at the Breeders' Cup. After each horse, I'll list off their preferred BRIS running style (E=Early, E/P=Early/Presser, P=Presser, S=Sustained/Closer) and the morning line odds. From there, I'll discuss the pros and cons of each horse while explaining why I think that horse has a great shot/has no shot.
With so much to get to, let's just jump right in. Here goes ...
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint: Not a bad race to kick things off, although it did lose a bit of its luster to me when two speedy fillies who would have been among the favorites (Beholder and Kauai Katie) decided to go after the more lucrative Juvenile Fillies crown. This is the smallest field with just seven horses, and there’s a pretty good distribution of relatively experienced horses and highly touted newcomers. The morning line favorite is Merit Man at 8/5, and it appears warranted – he put up a 98 speed figure on this very track on Oct. 6 while running pace figures of 96-101-93, which almost exactly match the preferred shape of a winner: 96-103-93. Here’s a look at the field from the rail out:
1. HIGHTAIL (E3) 8/1 ML: The most experienced horse in the race is also the only maiden (horse yet to win a race). HIGHTAIL has run eight times and tried dirt sprints, polytrack routes, turf sprints and turf routes, but he hasn’t done better than finishing a neck back in one of the turf sprints. His trainer, D. Wayne Lukas, has made a habit of placing horses in over their heads recently, and nothing about HIGHTAIL makes me think he belongs here. He was seventh in the G2 Sanford and this field has roughly similar quality. His best running line has been 92-99-80 in a 6.5 furlong sprint at Saratoga on Aug. 4, and that doesn’t seem like enough to contend here.
