2014 WOTHISM JUVENILE FILLIES TURF PREVIEW

JUVENILES. And not just juveniles, JUVENILE FILLIES.

I'll start by saying that if you're inclined to take your children trick or treating on Halloween (not sure if I am so inclined or not yet), you want to aim to get out the door after the Dirt Mile and be back before the Distaff.

With that disclaimer, let's go:

PACE OUTLOOK: Kind of slow! I could see someone stealing this race on the front end.

GENERAL OUTLOOK: Whereas the Euros seem destined to dominate the boys half of this event, the homeland has a chance of winning here. SUNSET GLOW has demonstrated versatility to be on the lead or just off it, and even went to England earlier this year to finish second in the Group 3 Albany. Beyond that, though ... Euros.

1. Partisan Politics (Castellano/Brown) 15-1: Shortening up to a mile here doesn't seem like the best for her. Could catch a piece if they fly early.

2. Osalia (Dettori/Hannon) 5-1: Only beaten a length in a group 1 in Ireland two back, she would otherwise enter having won four straight at distances from 6-7 furlongs. She should like the stretch out to a mile and is likely a deserving favorite; the only worry is that if it's far enough. And frankly, that worry is large enough to me to play against.

3. Sunset Glow (Espinoza/Ward) 7-2: In her defeat in England, the jockey dropped the whip. Might that have made the difference? Perhaps! Beyond that blemish, she has done absolutely nothing wrong and should be even better at a mile than she has been at shorter distances. The deserving favorite, and yet ... I don't think anyone should be 7-2 in this race. This sucker feels too wide open for such a short price.

4. Lady Eli (I. Ortiz/Brown) 6-1: Overcame a ton of trouble winning her first, and then won the slowly run Miss Grillo with ease in her second to enter this one undefeated. But the breeding is suspect, and the price seems low for a filly who hasn't beaten much.

5. Isabella Sings (Velasquez/Pletcher) 12-1: This one could be the downfall of SUNSET GLOW. A burner who's very likely to be the leader by the second call, she ran :46.4 on yielding! turf at Woodbine before giving in late. You could talk me into 12-1 on this one being a better bet than SUNSET GLOW at 7-2.

6. Sivoliere (Stevens/Brown) 12-1: This French import seems to hate soft ground ... fortunately, that won't be an issue at Santa Anita! Getting Gary Stevens on might normally be an upgrade, but I'm leery of trusting a rusty Stevens here. It's literally his first race back. I still like this horse, but what might have been a slam dunk play becomes a meek recommendation.

7. Rainha Da Bateria (Rosario/Motion) 12-1: Seems eligible for another step forward here and at a likely huge price, I would kick myself for not having her.

8. Nicky's Brown Miss (Torres/Capilupi) 20-1: Doesn't seem at all competitive.

9. Lady Zuzu (Leparoux/Lukas) 15-1: Lost a maiden turf sprint, jumped into the Grade 1 Spinaway on a sloppy track, then won by a ton in a Keeneland maiden. This is a $1.225 million horse, so the question is whether she belongs here or if the owners are trying to force something that should come more organically. Since she showed pace in her last and then drew off, I am somewhat inclined to use her.

10. Quality Rocks (Lezcano/Mott) 20-1: RAINHA DA BATERIA ran right by her in the Jessamine. Would need to move way up to compete here, and I don't see it.

11. Conquest Harlanate (Husbands/Casse) 10-1: Got the perfect pace setup in the aforementioned Natalma at Woodbine on yielding turf, putting her at 2-for-2 on turf entering this race. And she did that on yielding turf, which is intriguing because the pedigree would indicate that firmer ground (even dirt) would be better.

12. Tammy The Torpedo (Bejarano/Brown) 12-1: The favorite in the bizarrely run Miss Grillo, she ran third. Probably needs more pace than she'll get here.

13. Prize Exhibit (Spencer/Osborne) 20-1: Appears to be clearly a cut below the better Euros in this race.

14. Qualify (Moore/O'Brien) 5-1: Won a Group 3 in Ireland last out, and finished within three lengths of the winner in Group 1 and Group 2 tries in her two starts before that at 7 furlongs. An extra furlong should help here, but she'll have to overcome the outside post. I'd be inclined to play against this one at a short price.

SUMMARY: So, uh, did I actually say I liked every horse in the field or did it just feel that way? #5 ISABELLA SINGS, #6 SIVOLIERE, #7 RAINHA DA BATERIA, #9 LADY ZUZU AND #11 CONQUEST HARLANATE are the five that stick out to me. I can live with five. I do like SIVOLIERE the most, followed by CONQUEST HARLANATE, then RAINHA DA BATERIA, then LADY ZUZU, and then ISABELLA SINGS. Do with that what you will.