2014 WOTHISM BC JUVENILE PREVIEW

PACE OUTLOOK: Speed kills. Basically every horse here seemingly wants to be on or very near the lead. I think there are a few who could potentially take it all the way, but coming from off the pace, if possible, seems preferred.

GENERAL OUTLOOK: The departure of AMERICAN PHAROAH was saddening, but it made this race a bit more wide open-seeming, so that's not all bad.

1. Calculator (TrujilloMiller) 10-1: Running second to AMERICAN PHAROAH is nothing to sniff at, but the fact remains that this horse has never won a race, period.

2. Private Prospect (Campbell/Campbell) 20-1: Doesn't seem to fit at all here.

3. Blue Dancer (Walcott/Tracy) 30-1: From Northlands to Assiniboia to Hastings to ... the Breeders' Cup. No way.

4. The Great War (Moore/O'Brien) 10-1: Reminds me very much of DECLARATION OF WAR last year and has been successful closing on the turf at sprint distances. This $1 million horse has a good shot in my eyes.

6. Lucky Player (Santana Jr./Asmussen) 20-1: Won his last while running slow on the lead early. That won't happen today.

7. Texas Red (Desormeaux/Desormeaux) 15-1: Displayed nice kick late in the Frontrunner to finish third despite the slow pace. AMERICAN PHAROAH was running away from everyone but this one, as he was fourish lengths back all the way around. Again, with a hotter pace, this could be a nice play, but I don't know that the upside is there. He may just be a grinder and nothing more.

8. Souper Colossal (Lopez/Plesa) 8-1: The bullet work on Oct. 27 and undefeated record look great. The layoff since Aug. 31 and need for the lead don't look as great. He should be better the longer he goes, and he has overcome trouble (stumbled start) in the past. He doesn't look bad at all.

9. Carpe Diem (Velasquez/Pletcher) 3-1: His Breeders' Futurity win didn't do much for me as it was a slow pace. With that said, it was a contested pace, and his breeding fits here.

10. Mr. Z (Smith/Lukas) 15-1: Still winless since breaking his maiden, but he has three second-place finishes in stakes ranging from Grade 1 to 2 and 3. But these have been well-beaten seconds, and the addition of blinkers here scares me with the pace.

11. One Lucky Dane (Bejarano/Baffert) 8-1: Broke through with a nine-length win in his last. Did it all the way on the front end, though, and he doesn't appear quick enough to do that here. Betting against Baffert in baby races is tough, but I will here.

12. Daredevil (Castellano/Pletcher) 5-2: His Champagne win was beyond dominant. He went fast, he went wide, he was on the lead ... and it didn't matter. Now he has to prove it on a fast track at a short price. One interesting aspect of this is that Johnny V ended up on CARPE DIEM ... he had ridden both of these in their first starts, but they both ran on Oct. 4 and he went to Keeneland on CARPE DIEM. Now, it's likely that this wasn't an either-or decision — there were more Grade 1s at Keeneland that day, for instance — but it's mildly curious nonetheless.

13. Upstart (J. Ortiz/Violette) 6-1: This is your proven closing horse as he has run back-to-back 100+ speed figures while coming from off the pace in both a fast and slow race. He feels right, but if he couldn't get past DAREDEVIL last time with a generally perfect setup ... why should this time be any different?

SUMMARY: I think THE GREAT WAR fits pretty well here. SOUPER COLOSSAL and CARPE DIEM are the other two I would bet — even though they're likely pace factors, their potential seems the most unlimited.