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| After I hit four exactas in the five Breeders' Cup races on Friday, I'm counting on THE FUGUE to win me plenty all by herself on Saturday. |
I hit four of five exactas on Breeders' Cup Friday, two trifectas and one superfecta. I've had a handful of days where I won more money this year -- most of the exactas were very formful results, and I spread pretty wide on a few of them -- and I've had days where I was more "on" -- none of the horses I really liked actually won -- but putting up results like that just feels fantastic.
Nine more races here on Saturday. The biggest variable is how speed-favoring the track was today -- it was a pretty big joke, actually. Santa Anita should be downright embarrassed that a horse can go 22 and change and then 44 change, and then stagger home in nearly 26 and change and still not be at all challenged at a flat mile. That's not championship racing.
What's tough is that, per what I've read on Twitter, Santa Anita is doing some things that they're hoping will make it more fair tomorrow. I can't imagine that's going to reverse everything, but I'm going to operate under the premise that it's going to play a little bit more fairly tomorrow than it did today while still somewhat favoring speed. Here goes:
Juvenile Fillies: My initial reaction was that this race would be won from off the pace, but upon further review, while there are two horses that absolutely need the lead, this field actually seems pretty balanced to me. So, with the bias in play, I think horses closer to the pace have an advantage. ARTEMIS AGROTERA is undefeated and I'm guessing won't be a great bet on her own, but she has won both as the leader in a fast-paced race and just off the pace in a slow-paced race. SCANDALOUS ACT is stepping up in class but can't be ignored here as a front-runner based on the bias and her speed figures. I mentioned SECRET COMPASS the last time, but she benefited from a very fast pace to win at 10-1. I think she'll be overbet here. SHE'S A TIGER is the best horse to my eye ... she set that fast pace and only lost by a head. If she can go a bit slower, there's no reason to think she won't win here. SWEET REASON would also be impossible to leave off the ticket; she's a closer, but she's only been a few lengths off, and that's a margin that she can make up. UNTAPABLE is undefeated and looks capable of sitting closely enough to get a piece. I prefer the first three to the latter two, and I'll try those.
THE PLAY: ARTEMIS AGROTERA-SCANDALOUS ACT-SHE'S A TIGER-SWEET REASON-UNTAPABLE $0.10 superfecta ($12). ARETMIS AGROTERA-SCANDALOUS ACT-SHE'S A TIGER $2 exacta box ($12). Total bet = $24
Filly and Mare Turf: LAUGHING might be the most fortunate horse in the world, because she might be getting her fifth consecutive perfect pace scenario in this race. As the only confirmed pacesetter here, you can't ignore her chances of wiring this field. I also think that MARKETING MIX, although seemingly perhaps not what she was last year in her second-place finish here, will get a fantastic trip under Gary Stevens and could be part of a merry go-round race with LAUGHING. DANK was extremely eye-catching in her Beverly D win, and although I didn't think it was as impressive as others did, you can't leave her off. ROMANTICA looks dangerous coming over from Europe. Although she only managed seventh in her last start, she has won 2-of-4 over "good" ground in Europe (essentially firm here) and was second in the other two starts over good. In fact, she's my win/place/show play in this race -- I tried this race with THE FUGUE last year and got extremely unlucky, so I'm hoping she'll get a good trip here. TIZ FLIRTATIOUS ran down MARKETING MIX on a very slow pace last time and it would be impossible to leave this one, who has never finished worse than third, off any tickets. LADY OF SHAMROCK and QUSCHI are two others that I don't like to necessarily win, but could fill out the bottom of some exotics. I just don't really like MARKETING MIX or DANK when it comes down to it. They both feel overrated to me, so while they very may well win or run well, I'm looking for a minor upset. I'm not going deep on the exotics here because the only horse I truly don't like is EMOLLIENT -- she has not impressed me at all with her turf efforts. I might throw small win bets on LADY OF SHAMROCK and QUSCHI if they drift up at all from their 20/1 morning lines.
THE PLAY: $10 win/place/show on ROMANTICA ($30). ROMANTICA-LAUGHING-TIZ FLIRTATIOUS $2 exacta box ($12). Total bet = $42.
Filly and Mare Sprint: This might be the most interesting race to look at from a speed bias dynamic standpoint. My initial thought was that this would be a pretty much average race from a pace standpoint, but given the bias, I think a few horses that might normally be more relaxed will be sent. Specifically, I think SWEET LULU and STARSHIP TRUFFLES are likely to go forward more than they might have on a less pace-friendly track. So I foresee a four-way pace battle with those two, ISMENE and TEDDY'S PROMISE.
This is a complicated race, so I'm going to narrow it down some. I'm tossing SUMMER APPLAUSE on the cutback, ISMENE on the big class hike, RENEE'S TITAN, GREAT HOT and BOOK REVIEW.
I don't particularly like DANCE TO BRISTOL at the price with the bias, but would never leave her off any exotics as she has only finished worse than second one time in 19 starts. I liked SWEET LULU in my initial thoughts and think she's worthy of a look with the speed bias, but I think she's just a cut below at this stage of her career.
JUDY THE BEAUTY beat GROUPIE DOLL in their last, but she was also beaten by STARSHIP TRUFFLES in July, so it's not as if that means a whole lot. JUDY THE BEAUTY feels destined for a respectable 3rd/4th place finish as a steady, keeps coming performer.
TEDDY'S PROMISE feels like the real speed bias test for tomorrow. I think she's the quickest in this race and should be on the lead, but with the others I mentioned not letting her off easy, we could see a repeat of last year where she ran the first half mile in 44 seconds flat and faded to eighth.
DANCE CARD is very interesting in her second race back after a nearly year-long break after winning the G1 Gazelle last November. And although she didn't show much pace in her last race, she was brushed at the gate, and she led in her starts at three, so she may be closer than her running style alone would show.
GROUPIE DOLL is impossible to look past, obviously. She's only 1-for-3 this year, but she hasn't been the beneficiary of good pace scenarios. I don't think she's what she was last year, but she's still a deserving favorite here.
STARSHIP TRUFFLES is my pick in this one. Her Princess Rooney win was the best race any of these have run this year, and she's had trouble in her last two starts. From the 3 hole, I expect her to go to the lead with TEDDY'S PROMISE, only I think she has more stamina. The worry is that the other speed horses break better and she gets stuck behind horses, but at a 15-1 morning line, that's worth the risk.
THE PLAY: $10 win-place-show on STARSHIP TRUFFLES ($30). $1 exacta box on STARSHIP TRUFFLES-GROUPIE DOLL-DANCE CARD-SWEET LULU ($12). Total bet = $42.
Turf Sprint: There's really a surprising lack of speed in this race, which gives the speed horse RENEESGOTZIP a huge edge here. Last year in this race, the early pace was hot and she was in fourth after the first call and third after the second call. She ultimately finished third, but she should be able to do it all her own way on the front end this time. I do expect TIGHTEND TOUCHDOWN to go early, but he doesn't bother me at all -- he hasn't run at this level, nor does he seem to be able to stretch his speed beyond five flat furlongs.
CAPO BASTONE was my "hunch" pick, but without any pace and in his first run on this tricky course, he actually almost seems like an underlay at an 8/1 ML. That said, he's going to come flying late and he should actually move forward on turf according to the pedigree stats, so I won't leave him off.
I actually have as surprisingly dim view of MIZDIRECTION here. She's obviously a master of this turf course and the defending champ, but she ran that race so differently than any of her other races. She was 11th and eight lengths back in that one, but has never been closer than three lengths back in any of her other tries. If you throw that out, her figures just don't look that great compared to the others here. I'll play against and tip my hat if she wins. I also will be looking past UNBRIDLED'S NOTE for that very reason -- I think there are some other classier competitors trying this course that are bigger prices, so why not take a shot.
SPRING TO THE SKY is tricky since he has run his last two races with a lot of pace, bucking what had been his style in the past. I'm leaving him off my tickets due to his poor performance in graded races in the past -- he's 0-for-4 with a third, a fifth, and a pair of ninth-place finishes.
CARACORTADO seems to be a "wise guy" pick, and while I think he'll be overbet, if he gets a faster pace than I anticipate, he might well be the one to beat.
Of all the horses that have run on this turf course, CHIPS ALL IN is the most interesting to me. I still don't think he's a great contender, but his running style might suit very well if things go a bit faster than expected up front. HAVELOCK is one that I don't really love as there are a lot of questions, but he's my top closer and seems likely to get a piece unless he runs out of gas at 6.5 furlongs.
People have almost been laughing at JERANIMO for trying this race, but he did win the G1 Eddie Read in July and this is an easier spot than that, so 12-1 seems really generous to me. I don't necessarily like the artficial and dirt tries in his last two, but getting back to turf should be a big upgrade for him.
THE PLAY: $4 win-place-show on RENEESGOTZIP and JERANIMO ($24). $1 exacta box on RENEESGOTZIP-JERANIMO-HAVELOCK-CARACORTADO-CAPO BASTONE ($20). Total bet = $44.
Juvenile: As biased as the track was today, you still didn't necessarily want to be ON the lead. You wanted to be near the pace, but leading was not necessarily a winning strategy (with GOLDENCENTS being the exception, although that was possibly just a case of the best horse winning -- not a bias). Since I don't have an interest in betting on any horse that has only won ON the lead at the second call because this pace will be absolutely scintillating, here's the list of horses I'll consider at all: BOND HOLDER, MEDAL COUNT, SMARTY'S ECHO, STRONG MANDATE, TAP IT RICH, WE MISS ARTIE.
I don't want to necessarily toss all of the horses that can only win on the lead, but they all generally seem like a crapshoot and they're just not efficient betting options.
WE MISS ARTIE has just been slow and has won by crawling down the stretch at KEENELAND and sitting right on top of the pace in a slowly run turf race. MEDAL COUNT has also run slow figs.
STRONG MANDATE never got into the Champagne, finishing a well-beaten seventh. He only won on the lead of a slow race and in the slop, so I'll pass here.
SMARTY'S ECHO got beat by WE MISS ARTIE in his last, but he's one that you would expect to run better on the dirt and he has only run on the fake stuff. Still, he would have to jump up a lot to be a contender here.
TAP IT RICH was off slow before advancing throughout to win, so he may actually have more speed than he showed in his last. He takes a big class hike here but as a $510,000 purchase, this is where he belongs. Interesting option. BOND HOLDER also looks worthwhile. as the winner of the Grade 1 Front Runner here. Both of these are suitable closers because they've already dealt with the Santa Anita kickback that's supposedly so nasty.
In the search for early speed types, I only wanted those that could win while setting a fast pace: HAVANA and NEW YEAR'S DAY. DIAMOND BACHELOR does actually also qualify, but I'll be surprised if he's as good on dirt as he was on turf.
Two late speed and two early speed horses smells like a tri to me.
THE PLAY: $1 exacta/$0.50 trifecta boxes on TAP IT RICH-BOND HOLDER-HAVANA-NEW YEAR'S DAY. Total bet = $24.
Turf:
The more I looked at this race, the more it became clear to me that THE FUGUE is an absolute standout. LITTLE MIKE may actually get the same type of trip he did last year with SKYRING in the race, but that seems more unlikely than not. POINT OF ENTRY is no doubt the best America has to offer, he has been off since June 8. He ran well in a 1 3/8 mile race off a layoff back in July 2012, but he beat CENTER DIVIDER and TAHOE LAKE that day. This field is better than that by, well, a lot.
BIG BLUE KITTEN, INDY POINT, REAL SOLUTION and VAGABOND SHOES all seem equally as likely to make some noise down the stretch. I'd be hard pressed to separate them.
So, I won't.
THE PLAY: $20 to win-place-show on THE FUGUE. Total bet = $60.
*****NOTE: I'm actually going to wait on handicapping the final three races until I can see how the track bias situation looks -- it's going to have a pretty large impact on who I play in the sprint for sure, and likely the Classic to an extent, as well.*****
OK, the speed bias seems somewhat lessened but still a small factor, so more or less how I began the day's capping. Here goes:
Sprint:
These are sprint horses, obviously, so it's impossible to assume this pace will be a truly slow pace, particularly with the speed bias. That said, I don't think it's going to be absolutely boiling on the front end.
Either way, JUSTIN PHILLIP is impossible to ignore as the best off the pace horse, if not just the best horse in the race. This doesn't strike me as the classiest bunch to ever run in the Sprint, and his keep-coming style, while at odds with the bias and likely not a great win bet, seems almost a cinch to hit the trifecta.
My easy tosses: TRINNIBERG (not the same as he was, even at his best this year), WINE POLICE (just literally see no way), MAJESTIC STRIDE (early speed type that doesn't seem to have enough early speed for these), THE LUMBER GUY (lots of issues here), FAST BULLET (not the same in Lukas' barn), BAHAMIAN SQUALL (just doesn't seem quite good enough to win against these with just 4-of-14 lifetime record).
I'm really having an impossible time with the final six. SUM OF THE PARTS and PRIVATE ZONE are the two pace factors I like, and I think PRIVATE ZONE is likely better, but he's 3-1 and SUM OF THE PARTS is 12-1. I want to include both.
SECRET CIRCLE has boundless potential to rout these and has to be considered even if I think his last race was a cut below what he needs to win. JUSTIN PHILIP, as mentioned, would have to be included.
Finally, we come to LAUGH TRACK and GENTLEMEN'S BET. GENTLEMEN'S BET would be tough to leave out because he has the tactical speed to sit right behind the pace and move by in the stretch. LAUGH TRACK is the second-longest shot in this field, but I see something here. In his lone start on actual dirt, he was fourth in the extremely classy Alysheba going 1 1/16 miles, which I don't think is his best distance. He should really move forward on the dirt as opposed to all-weather, too, so I'm willing to take a shot at 20-1.
I'm going to wait to see the will pays to decide which direction below I'm going.
THE PLAY:Exacta or superfecta box of SUM OF THE PARTS-PRIVATE ZONE-SECRET CIRCLE-JUSTIN PHILIP-GENTLEMEN'S BET-LAUGH TRACK. NOTE: The payoffs look plenty juicy for most of these exacta combinations since SECRET CIRCLE is a headscratchingly strong favorite, so I'm actually playing the exacta and dumping SECRET CIRCLE from the superfecta and going for a monster payoff if he runs out of the top four.
Mile:
SILVER MAX, OBVIOUSLY and BRIGHT THOUGHT. Those three are probably going to go at it on the lead. I can't dismiss SILVER MAX or OBVIOUSLY, though -- those are two that seem to thrive the faster they go. BRIGHT THOUGHT off the massive layoff would be a pretty big shocker.
Some of these are easy tosses: HE BE FIRE N ICE, NO JET LAG CRISTOFORO COLOMBO and SILENTIO.
The rest? WISE DAN, obviously, should win ... but I don't consider him a no-brainer. Either one of the two speed horses mentioned above could get away and be gone, and OLYMPIC GLORY is world-class.
And all of that is ignoring ZA APPROVAL. I don't know enough about OLYMPIC GLORY to know if he's really a late horse or a mid-packer, but ZA APPROVAL is the best horse that's most likely to benefit from a hot early pace. I don't LOVE this horse, but he should be coming late and seems very likely to hit the board.
THE PLAY: $4 WPS on ZA APPROVAL ($12). $1 exacta box on SILVER MAX-OBVIOUSLY-WISE DAN-OLYMPIC GLORY-ZA APPROVAL ($20). $0.10 superfecta box on the same ($12).
Classic:
Here we go. THE BIG ONE.
Given the track bias, I expect FORT LARNED, GAME ON DUDE and MORENO to definitely be gunning for the lead, and you may even see somewhat surprising factors like PAYNTER and MUCHO MACHO MAN.
From a pure pace and track dynamic standpoint, the horses that can sit just a bit off the pace and then go get extra consideration from me. FLAT OUT, PALACE MALICE and MUCHO MACHO MAN seem like these types, but again, MUCHO MACHO MAN was right on FORT LARNED's flank last year, so he may be more forwardly placed.
What's tough is that the race shape and dynamic are really in opposition to the track bias -- I would normally look for closers here, but even though they closed in the Juvenile, these horses are classy and they don't quit.
I'm a little surprised, but FORT LARNED looks like he'll be my win bet. He has to be on the lead to win, but the good news is that I think he is clearly the fastest and will be. MORENO will be his toughest competition for that lead, but I literally do not think GAME ON DUDE can get the lead. I would include him in exotics, but I don't think he's a good win bet.
Should the pace collapse like I think there's a good likelihood it will, MUCHO MACHO MAN does seem to be the best play as he should sit in the second tier and always comes with his run down the lane. FLAT OUT never seems to disappoint, but I will try to play against him today. LAST GUNFIGHTER lacks the class and speed. PAYNTER would be a great story, but he hasn't ever done anything that makes me think he belongs at this topmost level.
I don't like WILL TAKE CHARGE much, but he's the one closing type that I think has a real shot. Meanwhile, PALACE MALICE is just ultra consistent and should sit that beautiful trip.
People are ignoring PLANTEUR in favor of DECLARATION OF WAR, and it's easy to see why. If you had to pick one, you would pick DECLARATION OF WAR. Based on the speed bias, though, and a tidbit I read about DECLARATION OF WAR not handling kickback when he was in America, I'm not sure I want either on my tickets.
I'm really trying to show some restraint in betting this race. I just don't have a strong feeling about this at all, and the horses I want to root for, I would be inclined to bet against. Stay tuned for my play!
THE PLAY: Well, my numbers tell me FORT LARNED, and while my brain says he's going to have a wicked trip on the front end, I'm willing to take that shot at the astronomical price of 13-1. Honestly, how he's 13-1 and GAME ON DUDE is 9-5 is mind-boggling. I'll also bet MUCHO MACHO MAN based on the trip I expect him to get. $10 Win-Place on FORT LARNED and MUCHO MACHO MAN ($40). And, well, it's the Breeders' Cup Classic, so I'll try to hit the super: MUCHO MACHO MAN-FORT LARNED-PALACE MALICE-GAME ON DUDE-WILL TAKE CHARGE. I don't feel great about leaving out MORENO (so gritty, but I think this level is too much for him) or FLAT OUT (he's always coming late, but the bias might be too much for him here), but it's worth the $12 stab in the dark. Finally, I'll give MUCHO MACHO MAN-FORT LARNED-PALACE MALICE a $2 exacta box shot.
$64 is pretty light for me in a race like the Breeders' Cup Classic, but I just don't have a great feel for this race. Should be fun regardless!
