A quick look at the probables list for the Travers and Pacific Classic this coming weekend got me all kinds of excited.
Without seeing PPs or even confirmed entries yet, here are my thoughts:
2014 Travers
I think there's a ton of pace in store here.
WICKED STRONG won the Jim Dandy on the pace. TONALIST set the pace in the Peter Pan. COLTIMUS PRIME was on the engine when winning the Prince of Wales. And we all know about BAYERN, who is almost undoubtedly the speed of the speed here.
If nobody goes with BAYERN early, well, it's probably over. He appears to be very much in the GAME ON DUDE mode where if he gets everything his way on the front end, he's money in the bank. And while I don't think TONALIST will be pressing him, WICKED STRONG or COLTIMUS PRIME seem likely to go.
TONALIST figures to sit a relatively ideal trip in third or fourth, but my worry would be that he may still be too close to what I believe will be a hot pace. I don't think a lot of COMMANDING CURVE, but if he's going to win a Grade 1 race or even show up at all again, this is probably his spot.
MR SPEAKER will be the wise guy horse here, and Steve Haskin makes a compelling case for backing him in his blog over at Bloodhorse. While he has excelled on turf to date, his pedigree is all dirt, so ... it's iffy. I'm not one to dismiss a horse based on the grounds of not wanting to ask a horse to do something he hasn't before, but at what I'm guessing will be in the 7-1 range, I don't see myself taking him.
KID CRUZ interests me here. To my eye, his Jim Dandy trip was extremely poor, and yet he was still running on late with interest -- probably the third time he had to re-rally in that race. If he's on the board at 15-1, that feels like a good bet to me given the probablity of the race falling apart and the likelihood of continued improvement at this distance.
The others aren't worthy of discussing further until they're entered, so at this point I would say KID CRUZ is my tepid pick to win the Travers.
2014 Pacific Classic
Oh. My. God.
This looks like a stellar edition of the Travers, but it doesn't touch this year's Pacific Classic:
The young hotshot SHARED BELIEF vs. the old guard GAME ON DUDE vs. the synthetic specialist FRAC DADDY vs. the flavor of the week MAJESTIC HARBOR vs. the ultra-consistent and possibly re-peaking CLUBHOUSE RIDE vs. the hard-to-figure IMPERATIVE vs. UAE Derby winner TOAST OF NEW YORK vs. my probable pick ... FOOTBRIDGE. And maybe more!
It starts like this ... GAME ON DUDE is *going.* Baffert has seen him wallow in mediocrity when he doesn't enough by now, so whatever he has to do to get that lead, he's going. If he can't hold it, he can't hold it, but it's obvious he's not passing anyone at this point of his career (if he ever was).
SHARED BELIEF is the hotshot and possible super horse, but he's being asked a lot here at what I would guess will be odds of 2-1 or less. He'll need to run longer and faster than he ever has, and while I don't think he'll mind sitting off of GAME ON DUDE, he has to put some pressure on I would think, and who knows how that role will suit when the real running gets started after a mile.
FRAC DADDY didn't run well in his last as he lost his first on synthetic after starting his career 4-for-4 on the stuff. He wants to be on or near the lead, too, though, so we have what we did in the Travers — a likely fast pace that benefits those a bit off of it.
MAJESTIC HARBOR got an absolute dream trip in the Gold Cup (I know because I bet on him and benefited from it), and I wouldn't want to bet on him to repeat that at assuredly much less odds. Ditto for CLUBHOUSE RIDE.
IMPERATIVE has been an incredible underlay in the races I've seen him run since winning the Charles Town Classic. I just don't like this horse that much, although he may benefit from a swift early pace.
Finally ... FOOTBRIDGE. I bet this horse in the San Diego only to watch him run a near-course record .. behind course record-setting FED BIZ. I think he's rounding into top form as a four-year-old and should be 20 or 25-1 while sitting a perfect mid-pack trip.
