The Second Annual Wothism Breeders' Cup Preview (Part III)

Hmmph. My first day of the 2012 Breeders’ Cup can be summed up as follows: I boxed up my top 4 horses in the Juvenile Fillies in search of hitting the tri, and it turned out that I would have hit the super if I had boxed up my top 5 for that bet. So, I did the logical thing and tried to hit the super in the Ladies’ Classic. This time, I would have hit the tri if I had tried boxing up my top 4. 

So, yeah … that’s just classic. 

The Second Annual Wothism Breeders' Cup Preview (Part II)

AWESOME FEATHER won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies
two years ago and is undefeated in 10 lifetime starts.
Can she make it 11 for 11 in this year's Ladies' Classic?

Now the real fun begins.

There are six races to break down for Friday at the Breeders' Cup. After each horse, I'll list off their preferred BRIS running style (E=Early, E/P=Early/Presser, P=Presser, S=Sustained/Closer) and the morning line odds. From there, I'll discuss the pros and cons of each horse while explaining why I think that horse has a great shot/has no shot.

With so much to get to, let's just jump right in. Here goes ...

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint: Not a bad race to kick things off, although it did lose a bit of its luster to me when two speedy fillies who would have been among the favorites (Beholder and Kauai Katie) decided to go after the more lucrative Juvenile Fillies crown. This is the smallest field with just seven horses, and there’s a pretty good distribution of relatively experienced horses and highly touted newcomers. The morning line favorite is Merit Man at 8/5, and it appears warranted – he put up a 98 speed figure on this very track on Oct. 6 while running pace figures of 96-101-93, which almost exactly match the preferred shape of a winner: 96-103-93. Here’s a look at the field from the rail out:

1. HIGHTAIL (E3) 8/1 ML: The most experienced horse in the race is also the only maiden (horse yet to win a race). HIGHTAIL has run eight times and tried dirt sprints, polytrack routes, turf sprints and turf routes, but he hasn’t done better than finishing a neck back in one of the turf sprints. His trainer, D. Wayne Lukas, has made a habit of placing horses in over their heads recently, and nothing about HIGHTAIL makes me think he belongs here. He was seventh in the G2 Sanford and this field has roughly similar quality. His best running line has been 92-99-80 in a 6.5 furlong sprint at Saratoga on Aug. 4, and that doesn’t seem like enough to contend here.

The Second Annual Wothism Breeders' Cup Preview (Part I)

My favorite two days of the year are upon us.

The Breeders' Cup is back.

In keeping with tradition, it's time for me to churn out 20,000 words about what I expect to happen in each of the 15 races taking place at Santa Anita on Friday and Saturday.

I've always intended to make this more than just a place where I write about horse racing a few times a year, but since it's not yet, I'd like to draw attention to my last post, where I heartily endorsed the eventual Belmont Stakes winner UNION RAGS.

Anyway, in keeping with last year's format, Part I of the Wothism Breeders' Cup Preview is reserved for some frequently asked questions about the Breeders' Cup:

Question: What the hell is the Breeders' Cup?

Answer: The Breeders' Cup is a 15-race event that takes place on the first Friday and Saturday in every November and is essentially the world championship for horse racing. The Breeders' Cup Classic is akin to the Super Bowl of horse racing -- the best of the best.

Question: Uh, isn't the Kentucky Derby the Super Bowl of horse racing? 

Answer: No. I mean, kind of. The Kentucky Derby has more pomp and circumstance, but the Kentucky Derby is a race limited to only three-year-olds. The Breeders' Cup Classic is an event with no age limits on any races except for the four races limited to just two-year-olds. In other words, while the Derby winners are the horses who will be remembered by the general public, the winners of the Breeders' Cup races -- particularly the Classic -- are truly the best in the world.

Question: So, why the hell do they need 15 races to figure this out?

Answer: It's a question many people much smarter than you or I have asked. The simple answer is: More races = more handle = more money. But many of the races make good sense, especially when you consider that many horsemen simply don't like to run females against males if at all possible (you can draw your own sexual bias conclusions here, but the general feeling is that the ladies are often too stubborn and push themselves harder than they ought to against males, which leads to more injuries ... which is obviously the worst case scenario in horse racing). For instance, while the Classic is run on dirt at 10 furlongs (1 1/4 miles) -- the classic distance and what most folks in the industry believe is a true test of champions -- some horses simply weren't built to go that far, or don't like to race on dirt. So there are turf races (at varying distances) and dirt races (at varying distances) so that all types of horses have a chance to prove their mettle. It's the same reason track and field has races like the 100 meter, 200 meter, etc. Some races -- the Breeders' Cup Marathon, in particular -- are widely panned by critics as being unnecessary or even entirely meaningless, but most of the races are worthwhile and help to settle scores that may have not been settled throughout the year. (In horse racing, one of the most fun/irritating points of contention is East Coast vs. West Coast -- due to the amount of strain travel can impose on horses, some horsemen will only bring their horses East or West for the Breeders' Cup races, so this is the first time many of these horses will meet.)

Question: OK ... when are these races and when can I see them?

Answer: Here's the list of post times (listed in CST ... because that's where I live) and the accompanying television coverage:

FRIDAY:
(Dirt) Juvenile Sprint ($500,000) -- 6 furlongs -- 3:06 p.m. -- NBCSports
(Dirt) Marathon ($500,000) -- 1 3/4 miles -- 3:48 p.m. -- NBCSports
Juvenile Fillies Turf ($1,000,000) -- 1 mile -- 4:28 p.m. -- NBCSports
(Dirt) Juvenile Fillies ($2,000,000) -- 1 1/16 miles -- 5:08 p.m. -- NBCSports
Filly and Mare Turf ($2,000,000) -- 1 1/4 miles -- 5:48 p.m. -- NBCSports
(Dirt) Ladies' Classic ($2,000,000) -- 1 1/8 miles -- 6:40 p.m. -- NBCSports

SATURDAY:
Juvenile Turf ($1,000,000) -- 1 mile -- 1:50 p.m. -- HRTV/NBCSports (unclear)
(Dirt) Filly and Mare Sprint ($1,000,000) -- 7 furlongs -- 2:35 p.m. -- NBCSports
Dirt Mile ($1,000,000) -- 1 mile -- 3:14 p.m. -- NBCSports
Turf Sprint ($1,000,000) -- 6.5 furlongs -- 3:57 p.m. -- NBCSports
(Dirt) Juvenile ($2,000,000)  -- 1 1/16 miles -- 4:36 p.m. -- NBCSports

Turf ($3,000,000) -- 1 1/2 miles -- 5:18 p.m. -- NBCSports

(Dirt) Sprint ($1,500,000) -- 6 furlongs -- 5:58 p.m. -- NBCSports
(Turf) Mile ($2,000,000) -- 1 mile -- 6:40 pm. -- NBCSports
(Dirt) Classic ($5,000,000) -- 1 1/4 miles -- 7:30 p.m. -- NBC

I kind of hate this year's Breeders' Cup TV schedule even more than last year's, and I hated last year's quite a bit. Last year, ABC took a few hours in the middle of the day to show generally uninteresting races like the Juvenile Turf and the Turf Sprint, while the Classic was on ESPN.

This year, at least we get the Classic on a network in primetime, but at the cost of being stuck on NBCSports the rest of the weekend? Ugh. Maybe if the Breeders' Cup spent some of their purse money on securing better TV deals the sport might attract a larger fanbase.

Question: My God, that's a long time to watch horses intermittently run around the track ... which races might actually be worth watching?

Answer: Typically, the Classic on Saturday night is the race to watch if you're only going to tune in for one. This year, however, I would encourage you to tune in on Friday night instead.

This edition of the Ladies' Classic is LOADED. I'll get into specifics in my next post, but you have two undefeated horses that were 2-year-old champions (MY MISS AURELIA last year and AWESOME FEATHER in 2010) ... and they won't even be the favorites. That honor falls to ROYAL DELTA, who won the Ladies' Classic last year and has won three of her four last starts. And then you have LOVE AND PRIDE, the only horse to beat ROYAL DELTA in the last six months, and QUESTING, a horse that seems to have more pure talent and speed than any of the others and was a heavy favorite over MY MISS AURELIA in her last race. And then there's GRACE HALL, a horse that was favored over QUESTING just two months ago! And while neither of the final two have faced the same competition all of the above have, CLASS INCLUDED has 10 wins and six second-place finishes from 16 starts, while INCLUDE ME OUT is the locally-based horse that has won 4 of her last 6. Can you tell I'm excited about this one?

You should definitely watch it.

Beyond that, the Breeders' Cup did a pretty good job of packaging the best races as a lead-in into the Classic. Other than the Turf Sprint (which I think they should have put before the Dirt Mile), I could make a case for even a casual fan having an interest in all of the late-day races.

I'll work backward from the Classic, which is still obviously the big prize. Problem is, it doesn't have all that great of a field in my opinion. We had a lot of defections throughout the year, and the best 3-year-old we're left with is ALPHA, a horse that's on the morning line at 20/1. There are some very good to borderline great horses that are running, but I don't think any of these are brilliant horses that you HAVE to see race. GAME ON DUDE no longer has Chantal Sutherland on his back, and that will take away some of the luster for women. You don't have a horse like UNCLE MO that most people had heard of giving his elders a shot. You don't have anything like ZENYATTA, who carried this event for a couple of years there. (As heartbreaking as it is to share this video: Zenyatta just misses history, watch it and feel the excitement. Man, she was fun to watch even in defeat.)

But still, it's the Classic, and there are actually some horses I think are capable of brilliance -- they just haven't shown it yet. Those are the ones I want to bet on, but we'll get to that more later. Either way, you should watch because I said so.

The race right before it -- the (Turf!) Mile -- actually is a lot more intriguing from just about every viewpoint. Better horses, better storylines ... it's just a really interesting race. You have WISE DAN, a horse that has won on every surface and done so brilliantly. He's the best horse in America according to most. Then you have EXCELEBRATION, a European horse that has won 6 of his last 10 starts ... and the only times he didn't win was when he was facing the best horse in the world (possibly ever), FRANKEL. Then you have the former Kentucky Derby winner ANIMAL KINGDOM making a comeback after being away from the races since February with an injury. If you're only watching one race on Saturday, make it this one.

Finally, there's the Breeders' Cup Sprint. Of the big-name races, this has to be the most wide-open. First, it has 14 horses, so things could get crazy at the start. You have the defending champion of the race in AMAZOMBIE, a couple of speedy 3-year-olds (TRINNIBERG and THE LUMBER GUY) taking on their elders, a couple grizzled veterans in with a huge shot (COIL in particular) and FAST BULLET, a 4-year-old who has only run twice but is undefeated and could just be far and away the best. It doesn't have the storylines of the Turf Mile, but it's unrivaled as a betting race.

So, in short, the casual fan should plan on tuning into NBCSports at 6:30 on Friday night and watching the Ladies' Classic. Then, on Saturday, try to get to the couch by 5:45 for the final three races, or at least make it there by 6:30 so you can see the Mile and the Classic.

That's it for this part of the preview. In parts 2 and 3 (to come in the next few days), I'll break down Friday and Saturday's races.

The 2012 Wothism Belmont Stakes Preview

UNION RAGS romped by 5 1/4 lengths in his lone
career start at Belmont Park last summer.
I expect him to do the same in the Belmont Stakes.

There’s really only one way to put it (earmuffs, children): The Belmont Stakes is a fucking mystery.

The crazy longshots that have won in recent years have easily made this the hardest race in which to use any real handicapping logic. Most horses these days are hard-pressed to run even nine furlongs reasonably well, so the 10 furlongs that the Kentucky Derby offers is a real distance test. 

The 12 furlongs in the Belmont Stakes is really nothing short of ridiculous for today’s racehorses.

Many of the recent Belmont Stakes winners have not been even “good” horses. Last year’s winner, RULER ON ICE, hasn’t won in six starts since. And he was one of the shorter priced and more logical winners in recent history at 24-1. 

DROSSELMEYER won at 13-1 in 2010. SUMMER BIRD (one of the few recent winners that turned out to be an outstanding horse) won at 11-1 in 2009. DA’ TARA shocked the world when BIG BROWN failed to fire in 2008 and paid 38-1. 

There were a few recent winners that paid less than double digit odds — RAGS TO RICHES won a thrilling stretch duel with CURLIN to win the 2007 edition at 4-1, JAZIL won at 6-1 in 2006 and AFLEET ALEX paid just more than even money in 2005 — but two of the three years before that featured bombs like BIRDSTONE at 36-1 in 2004 and the absolutely ridiculous SARAVA at 70-1. Yes, 70-1.

In other words, you have to go beyond conventional handicapping when taking a look at the Belmont. Past performances are important to see how horses have performed as they stretch out, but dazzling speed figures are not. Horses need not be brilliant to win the Belmont Stakes … they need to be steady runners. It’s not which horse has the most burst at the end. It’s which horse falls off the least. 

Yes, even OPTIMIZER, who I ranked dead-last in both my Derby and Preakness Previews, deserves a fresh look.

That said, this preview should be much shorter than the past two because there’s no need or benefit (as if there was a real benefit to the first two legs when I unsuccessfully went against I’LL HAVE ANOTHER) to writing at length.

Here goes. This roughly goes in order of most likely to win, although the one exception is that I think I’LL HAVE ANOTHER is the most likely winner but will be bet down too far to realistically consider as a win bet. In parentheses after each horse is the post position, the morning line set by Eric Donovan, the Belmont oddsmaker, and the exchange betting line (which is probably the best representation of what we’ll see on race day since that’s actually moving based on actual bets).

VALUE VALUE VALUE:

UNION RAGS (PP #3, 6-1 ML, 5.25-1 EB): 6/1 on a horse that hasn’t gotten to run in his past two starts but was a freaking world-beater in all of his other starts? He had an absolutely awful trip in the Kentucky Derby, and his Florida Derby wasn’t that much prettier. He gets what I think is a major upgrade at jockey, from Julien Leparoux (who’s a great turf rider but who I think kind of sucks on dirt) to the outstanding (although cold lately) John Velazquez. He put in a bullet work on June 3 of five furlongs in 59 seconds. My only concern is that he doesn’t get 1.5 miles. I don’t know that. I don’t know that about any of these horses, though. There’s a good bit of talk that Dixie Union has never sired a horse that has won at 10 furlongs or more, but then there’s more talk that UNION RAGS matches up well with DROSSELMEYER, the 2010 winner of the Belmont Stakes and the 2011 winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic. I still think DROSSELMEYER pretty much sucks and is the very definition of a plodder, but the point is that the pedigree UNION RAGS boasts compares well to DROSSELMEYER’s. Both have sires with reputations as milers, but they have cross-bred stamina going well back. DIXIE UNION was by DIXIELAND BAND who was by NORTHERN DANCER, with the latter two full of stamina. Yet others say it’s “bloodlines 101” that the offspring of DIXIELAND BAND and MR. PROSPECTOR will absolutely not get 12 furlongs. So, as with everything, who knows?! For me, I think he’ll get the distance. He’s a big colt who should benefit from a smaller field and wider turns and more room to find his stride. His energy ratings indicate 1.5 miles should be doable. He’s had bad racing luck, but others say racing luck is garbage and that good horses, like good people, make their own luck. I say everyone gets a raw deal sometimes. If they ran this race 10 times, I think he would win three times, so he ought to be about 2-1 in my book. At anything more than that, I’m playing him. If he’s at 5-1 or above, I’ll go reasonably big (say $100) on this colt. I’m worried he’ll attract a lot of attention and go off at closer to 3-1, but who knows.

PROBABLY OVERBET BUT POSSIBLY DESERVEDLY:

PAYNTER (PP #9, 8-1 ML, 7.25-1 EB): I bet on PAYNTER back on April 7 in the Santa Anita Derby, which was his second start. At 10-1 running against what I perceived to be one decent horse – CREATIVE CAUSE – he seemed like a good bet. He finished fourth as I’LL HAVE ANOTHER started his bid for greatness. In his two starts since, he’s ran a couple of great speed figures in a 105 (a second two starts back in the one mile Derby trial) and a 107 (a dominant win on the Preakness undercard at 1 1/16 miles). He showed more speed in those last two starts than he did in the first two starts of his career, and that might be a good thing for his chances because he’s probably the horse that figures to be alone on the lead here. I just don’t think the pedigree is that great for 1.5 miles and that, combined with a good deal of wise guy love and not many starts, is enough to keep me off of PAYNTER.

TOSSING BECAUSE YOU NEED A PRICE:

I’LL HAVE ANOTHER (PP #11, 4-5 ML, 1.15-1 EB): This horse hasn’t won four straight and the first two legs of the Triple Crown on smoke and mirrors. Yes, he got a great trip in the Derby, but the way he ran down BODEMEISTER to win the Preakness was the stuff of legends. He had no business catching BODEMEISTER, but he dug in and, god damnit, he caught him. With it, he paired speed figs at 108-109, which would indicate to me he could be ready for another leap. He even has one of the better breeding lines to get the distance with a 7.3 and 7.7 furlong average winning distance from his parents. If there’s something that bothers me just a bit it’s that he has only been galloped from the Preakness until now. He has been putting in strong gallops of a mile every day and closing in razor sharp fractions of 12 seconds/furlong for about two furlongs, typically, but it’s just a bit bothersome. I would have liked to see a four or five furlong work last weekend. Another factor going against him is that the NYRA will not allow him to wear what is the equivalent of a Breathe-Right strip on his nose, which he has worn regularly. Sure, like humans, maybe it does absolutely nothing. But maybe it does! I’m also not sure what he does with this pace. In both the Preakness and the Derby, BODEMEISTER pretty much guaranteed a reasonably honest pace up front … even if the Preakness got pretty slow after all. I guess I see I’LL HAVE ANOTHER ducking in behind PAYNTER and MY ADONIS, but being in post 11 could end up leaving him hung wide in that first turn, and Belmont has truly sweeping turns where a little bit of ground out from the rail can really add up. Finally, jockey Mario Gutierrez has never ridding at Belmont Park before. SMARTY JONES lost in 2004 after his jockey, Stewart Elliot, made his move too soon and used his mount too much, too early. Gutierrez has been absolutely amazing in the first two legs of the Triple Crown, but can he put in another perfect ride at perhaps the hardest track to ride around? One plus is that he’ll have a “test run” at 1.5 miles at Belmont in the Brooklyn Handicap on Friday, but what if he waits too long in that one? Will he then overcompensate and move too early on Saturday? Or vice versa? There are quite a few questions against a number of solid competitors to make me think I’LL HAVE ANOTHER’s true fair odds are more like 2/1 than 4/5. Don’t get me wrong: If I lose a hundred bucks or more on this race and I’LL HAVE ANOTHER wins the Triple Crown, I’ll be on Cloud Nine. So you can call the way I’m playing this race a Triple Crown hedge. Why not!

DULLAHAN (PP #5, 5-1 ML, 3.25-1 EB): I just don’t believe in this horse. Bottom. Line. His win in the Bluegrass was discussed at length back in my Derby preview as probably a fluke. His turn time in the last race was stellar — 111 on the Brisnet ratings — and turn time is typically one of the best indicators of next-out success. He also worked a sick four furlongs a few days ago. Everyone’s jumping on the bandwagon, as shown by the ridiculous 3.25-1 exchange betting line. I don’t like him because: a) the Derby set up EXTREMELY WELL for him with the early split of 45.2 and he still could only manage third, b) he’s not a freaking dirt horse and c) everyone loves him. He might win, sure, but his price will be far too low. The Blue Grass set up ridiculously well for him, so I don’t give him much credit there. I’ll be pissed if he wins, but whatever. I don’t think his breeding – 6.7 furlongs and 7.5 furlongs of average win distance – or late running style lends itself to this distance. The end.

PRETTY INTRIGUING:

ATIGUN (PP #4, 30-1 ML, 32.5-1 EB): This horse has won 3 of 9 lifetime starts and in his lone start going 9 furlongs, steadily improved late. Granted, that was a well-beaten 5th in the Arkansas Derby, but the breeding shows the average winning distance of his sire was 7.2 furlongs and his dam’s was 8.9 furlongs. Those are pretty gaudy numbers in this day and age, believe it or not, so there might be reason to believe this one could steadily mow down the field in the final two furlongs. The worry is that he’s too slow early — typically, horses that win the Belmont are mid-pack. As started earlier, it’s not a question of late kick — no horses really have that at 12 furlongs —so asking this horse to close from too far back might be tough.

SO WHAT I'M SAYING IS THERE’S A CHANCE:

RAVELO’S BOY (PP #6, 50-1 ML, 50.5-1 EB): This horse has made 13 – THIRTEEN! – starts since last August. But he hasn’t raced since March 10 and hasn’t finished better than fourth against stakes competition, and that was in a Grade 3 race. So why do I think he might have a slim chance in hell? Well, he’s working absolute bullets down at Calder. His races show he’s a stone-cold closer, but his recent workouts indicate he has suddenly developed a ton of speed. A stiff six-furlong drill in 1:11.8 on June 3 made the owners decide to give him a shot, and they could just maybe be rewarded. The breeding isn’t bad at 7.2 and 7.2. Stranger things have happened.

MY ADONIS (PP #12, 20-1 ML, 34.5-1 EB): Really the only horse other than PAYNTER with any discernible speed in the race, he figures to be in the first flight and has only been worse than a length off the lead in any start but one (and that was due to being bumped) in his last nine races. So, OK, might be a pace advantage with a slow-ish pace up front. Is he good enough? He did run a 102 speed fig in the Gotham behind HANSEN three starts back, so that wasn’t bad. He really fell apart in the Wood, unfortunately, fading late after a pretty hot early pace and finishing seventh. If he gets a slower pace here, which I think he will, he could be a player. 

OUTRIGHT TOSSES:

STREET LIFE (PP #1, 12-1 ML, 12.15-1 EB): I’m not quite sure what makes this horse any better than most of the horses in my tosses section, but whatever. He put in a reasonably solid effort at 9 furlongs in coming in third in the Peter Pan, closing like a relative freight train from 10th and 9 lengths back at the second call to finish third just 1.75 lengths back of the winner. But that winner was MARK VALESKI, a horse that wasn’t good enough to run in the Derby and a horse who I don’t think is even that good at 9 furlongs. He’s by STREET SENSE, so he’s got that big name in his pedigree, but his sixth place finish in the Wood won by Derby afterthought GEMOLOGIST and followed by Derby washout ALPHA doesn’t really inspire much greatness to me. This is another stone-cold closer without much pace to run into. At 12-1 he’s the easiest toss in the book even if you can make the case that he could improve from that May 12 race and has a race in on this sometimes trick Belmont surface.

UNSTOPPABLE U (PP #2, 30-1 ML, 32.5-1 EB): This horse is undefeated in two starts, but the competition was clearly about 30 cuts below what he’ll face Saturday … if he starts. UNSTOPPABLE U has trained very poorly recently and trainer Ken McPeek has hinted he might opt for an easier spot on the undercard or in weeks to come. The breeding also doesn’t indicate he wants this much distance. An easy toss.

FIVE SIXTEEN (PP #7, 50-1 ML, 50.5-1 EB): Other than one turf start, this horse has run better times in every consecutive race he’s run. Problem is, he only broke his maiden in his fifth start, and the only race he ran since then was a fourth-place finish against allowance company on April 18. This was an expensive horse once upon a time at $225,000, but I don’t think he belongs here at all. The breeding indicates he probably wants shorter.

GUYANA STAR DWEEJ (PP #8, 50-1 ML, 65.5-1 EB): This horse nearly ran in the Preakness and it was pretty much the biggest joke ever, so the feeling is the same here. The breeding doesn’t indicate he can go 1.5 miles at all, and this is another that only broke his maiden two starts back. He put in a horrible work on Monday, covering four furlongs in 49 seconds and generally looking like shit. No chance.

OPTIMIZER (PP #10, 20-1 ML, 34.5-1 EB): I was kidding earlier. Fuck this shitty horse! It’s funny, actually – he has one of the better-looking pedigrees in that the average winning distances of his parents was 8.0 and 8.2 furlongs. But in the late stages of both the Preakness and the Derby, he hasn’t made up any ground on the leaders at all. So he’s not good enough, but at least he’s not fresh. He keeps the last spot on my list! I would entertain any size wager on OPTIMIZER at 20-1. That’s hilarious. I would love to book that.

----

So, that’s the horse-by-horse breakdown. If I was betting this race RIGHT NOW (as of 8 p.m. Thursday night), here’s how I’d play it based on the exchange betting odds:

$100 to win on 3-UNION RAGS

$5 to win on 4-ATIGUN

$5 to win on 6-RAVELO’S BOY

$5 to win on 12-MY ADONIS

I think that I’LL HAVE ANOTHER, DULLAHAN and PAYNTER being overbet leaves all of these horses with some modicum of value. 

I tried a superfecta in the Preakness that didn’t work out – got the top three but not the fourth – and really wasn’t that heartbroken since I probably would have only made around $10 if my horse had hit the fourth spot, anyway. 

This race is much more difficult to call and obviously will be much more lucrative if you do, but I don’t have the bankroll to go after this too seriously. Just making those win bets and calling it a day will be good enough for me.

The 2012 Wothism Preakness Preview

Let's get a few things from the Derby out of the way first:

CREATIVE CAUSE beat BODEMEISTER in the San
Felipe Stakes on March 10. Can he run back to that
effort in the Preakness? I'm banking on it!

1. I was simply off the mark with HANSEN in the Kentucky Derby. Sometimes, when everyone says one thing ... they're right. I like to seek out the contrarian viewpoint more often than not, and this time I played the part of contrarian ... and it hurt. HANSEN's incredible washing out certainly didn't help matters (for non super-fans, washing out = he got really hot and sweaty before the race). I also hated how he was ridden, as his jockey strangled him early in an attempt to rate. When a horse wants to go, you have to let him go. You can try to hold him back a bit, but if he fights it, you simply have to let go. I have never seen a horse fight his jockey early like HANSEN did and win late. Sure, if he sprints out and battles BODEMEISTER, he probably doesn't have a chance, either ... but it was just terrible all around. 

2. "You'd be a fool to bet I'LL HAVE ANOTHER." Yes, that's what I said about the eventual Derby winner. The lesson I'm taking away from this Kentucky Derby is that I allowed my own personal prejudices to get in the way of solid handicapping. I even said that I'LL HAVE ANOTHER has an impressive list of past performances, but I ignored that mostly because I had a soft spot for CREATIVE CAUSE. There's no way of getting past the fact that I'LL HAVE ANOTHER outran CREATIVE CAUSE in the Santa Anita Derby, and he did so again in the Kentucky Derby. Now, granted — I'LL HAVE ANOTHER had a perfect trip in the Kentucky Derby while CREATIVE CAUSE got jostled a bit and ran the furthest of any horse — but even taking away that ground loss, I'LL HAVE ANOTHER would have beat CREATIVE CAUSE once again. All of that said, my real knocks on I'LL HAVE ANOTHER were his failure to do anything but win from second and his post. Well, he proved to me that rating in second is pretty much as good as rating in fourth or fifth, and that I'd be stupid to ever rule out a horse based on his post position again.

3. The stream of respected horse racing analysts who are heralding BODEMEISTER's near-miss in the Kentucky Derby as the stuff of legends has not been a slow trickle. It has been a virtual deluge. Granted, BODEMEISTER ran a faster 3/4 mile than almost every horse in the Kentucky Derby has in the past half-century. Granted, I got butterflies thinking he might be the super horse to save racing when he spurted away at the top of the stretch. But he ran his last two furlongs in 26 SECONDS. He was crawling to the finish. It turns out that more of these horses than we thought have distance troubles. I also don't think TRINNIBERG really was pushing BODEMEISTER that hard. There has been a big hub bub about whether Mike Smith rode BODEMEISTER the right way or completely wrong, but I think that's just how BODEMEISTER wants and needs to run. He's going to go as fast as he can for as far as he can ... and I think, more than likely, that's 9 furlongs. The Derby is 10 furlongs, the Preakness is 9.5 furlongs. Hmm ...

Anyway, on to the Preakness! The first thing you need to know about this year's Preakness is that we have a lot of new shooters. What that means is that, of the likely 12 runners, seven of them did not run in the Kentucky Derby. While you might think that this means they're fresh (it does), it also means they're not as good as almost any of the Derby horses (as they didn't have enough graded earnings to make the Derby field). 


You can't totally discount the chance of one of these horses winning, but it's pretty unlikely based both on history and talent.


The second thing you need to know is that the Black Eyed Susan, the official drink of the Preakness, is one hell of a drink. It destroys the mint julep in every conceivable way. 

• 2 parts bourbon
• 1 part vodka citrus
• 3 parts sweet & sour mix
• 1 part (really, just fill up the rest of the glass) orange juice

This drink is a screwdriver on steroids. You will not regret giving it a shot on Saturday.


Anyway, logic and history tell us the winner will be one of these six horses:


I'LL HAVE ANOTHER (1st in the Derby)

BODEMEISTER (2nd)

WENT THE DAY WELL (4th)

CREATIVE CAUSE (5th) 

DADDY NOSE BEST (10th)

OPTIMIZER (11th)

The new shooters are:

TEETH OF THE DOG

TIGER WALK

COZZETTI

PRETENSION

ZETTERHOLM

Below, I'll breakdown the horses into two groups: POSSIBILITIES, which I'll define as horses I think have either a shot at winning or are likely to finish in the top four for superfecta purposes, and TOSSES, which I'll define as horses I really don't think have a chance of winning at all and likely won't even finish in the top four.

As always, after each horse’s name in parentheses will be the horse’s post number (1-20 with 1 on the rail and 20 the widest on the track), the morning line (set by Mike Battaglia, who Churchill Downs asks to create his best guesses at the odds on each horse) and the exchange betting line (taken from thegreek.com and likely the best representation of what we’ll see on Saturday).  

POSSIBILITIES:

1. BODEMEISTER (PP #7, 9-5 ML, 1.65-1 EB): If you don't think he's too worn out from the past two huge races that he ran, it's almost impossible to think he'll get beat. With a complete lack of early speed (quite the opposite from the Derby), he should be able to get an easy early lead and roll to a relatively easy victory. Apart from I'LL HAVE ANOTHER, who was eight lengths off of BODEMEISTER at the first call in the Kentucky Derby, TEETH OF THE DOG is the only horse to display anything resembling front-running ability ... and he did that in a maiden race with an extremely slow pace. If BODEMEISTER is anything even close to what he was in the Derby, he wins this race by a mile. The notion that he'll be worn out by two such big races in the past 35 days or so might be a valid one, but the other side of the coin is that he basically paired the two top figures of his career ... and horses like that typically run even bigger.  So ... it's really hard to get past BODEMEISTER, even at what are likely to be very low odds. I honestly think if he's at his best, he wins against this field 60% of the time. Even a bit off his best, I have to think that he wins 40% of the time ... which means that even at odds as low as 2-1, he's a good bet. Below that, though — which people are starting to believe is likely — and you have to look elsewhere.

2. I'LL HAVE ANOTHER (PP #9, 2-1 ML, 2.15-1 EB): He's the only horse in the field that has showed any sort of capability to potentially stick with a horse like BODEMEISTER, and that really hurts his chances of winning. Typically, history has shown that the best horse wins the Preakness. Too many weird things always happen in the Derby for it to be the truest test, but the Preakness usually plays pretty true to form. What I mean is that while I would take I'LL HAVE ANOTHER over any other horse in this field if I had a gun to my head, it's really pretty hard to see him pressing BODEMEISTER and running by in the stretch. If he does and we have a potential Triple Crown on the line at Belmont on June 9, I'll be thrilled … albeit a bit more poor after betting against him AGAIN in this race. 

3. CREATIVE CAUSE (PP #6, 6-1 ML, 7.15-1 EB): Yeah, I'll go back to the well again here. As stated earlier, he ran much further than any other horse in the Derby. It's really, really hard for me to see any horse other than BODEMEISTER or CREATIVE CAUSE winning this race. If I'LL HAVE ANOTHER lets BODEMEISTER go with an easy early lead, it's all over — BODEMEISTER wins with relative ease. But if I'LL HAVE ANOTHER presses BODEMEISTER into another hot pace, then CREATIVE CAUSE runs by both of them from a perfect stalking position in the stretch. That's that. What worries me with CREATIVE CAUSE is a truly stupid traveling schedule. He was flown back to California from Kentucky, then from California out to Maryland. The generally accepted maxim is that flying horses like that takes a good bit out of them, so the worry here is that he's just going to be too fatigued. Still, I think he's just about the only horse who can beat BODEMEISTER (he did it two starts back in the San Felipe Stakes).

4. TEETH OF THE DOG (PP #2, 15-1 ML, 15.5-1 EB): If you're looking for a horse that just might shock the world, this is probably your guy. In just four career races, he has improved each time. He's had about 40 days to freshen since a pretty impressive effort in the Wood (a third-place finish three lengths back of GEMOLOGIST), a race in which he put up a 98 speed figure. If he improves off of that break and effort, it wouldn't be too unreasonable to see him move up into the low to mid-100s ... which might put him right there. He showed enough early speed in that race to stick reasonably close to a decent pace, and as mentioned earlier, he did wire that maiden field two starts back. In fact, if there's one horse who might mess up BODEMEISTER's plan on the front end, it's probably this guy. I'm banking, however, that he can sit back in the 3rd or 4th spot and make a run at BODEMEISTER and I'LL HAVE ANOTHER late. My biggest worry is that his trainer is playing this race off like he didn't even necessarily want to run him in this spot ... but trainers are strange characters and sometimes say what owners want them to say. 

5. WENT THE DAY WELL (PP #5, 6-1, 5.5-1 EB): Looking back on the Kentucky Derby, it has become fashionable to say that WENT THE DAY WELL would have won the race if not for a nightmare trip. He finished a fast-closing fourth, just 2.5 lengths back of the winner after being 17th and 18 lengths back at the first call. His sustained move was extremely impressive. Before the Derby, I said that I didn't see WENT THE DAY WELL moving forward off his best effort, but he just paired it up at 105-103. Can he move forward yet again? I'll say no, once again due to the pace setup. His late pace has been tremendous in all of his races on dirt, but I don't think the horses up front will be tired enough to make that matter. If you think back to last year, you'll remember that ANIMAL KINGDOM couldn't catch SHACKLEFORD in the stretch. Pimlico absolutely favors speed, and this guy doesn't have it. Exotics? Sure!

6. TIGER WALK (PP #1, 30-1 ML, 35.5-1 EB): This colt also ran solidly enough in the Wood, running fourth. He has had the same break as TEETH OF THE DOG, so he might also have the advantage of freshness. The difference is that this guy hasn't shown enough early pace on dirt for me to believe that he can stick close enough to catch BODEMEISTER or I'LL HAVE ANOTHER. That said, I could see using him in exotics.

TOTAL THROWOUTS:

7. DADDY NOSE BEST (PP #8, 15-1 ML, 14.5-1 EB): I was one of the seemingly few people who didn't think highly of him (I actually called it laughable that others thought he might win) in the Derby, and I was at least right on that one as he finished a very even 10th — he was never closer than 7th and never worse than 10th. He just didn't move at all. And that was in a Derby that should have set up well for his preferred closing style. So who could honestly expect him to close into what will almost assuredly be a slow pace? Not a chance.

8. ZETTERHOLM (PP #4, 30-1 ML, 24.5-1 EB): He hasn't faced any competition (only New York breds) and has shown no early speed. The things I can give him credit for are: 1) Winning 3/4 starts in 2012 and finishing second in the other. 2) Pairing 94-94 in his past two starts. 3) Having an interesting pedigree with some Argentinian bloodlines. There's a reason he has been bet down some on the exchange betting line. Still, he hasn't run longer than a mile, and it's really tough to see him beating, or even competing, with these. 

9. PRETENSION (PP #3, 30-1 ML, 35.5-1 EB): This horse ran 5th to HANSEN in the Gotham and 9th in the ILLINOIS DERBY. He did win a bottom barrel stakes race at Pimlico on Derby Day, but I'll jump off a building if he wins the Preakness. (NOTE: I will not really jump off a building.)

10. COZZETTI (PP #11, 30-1 ML, 38.5-1 EB): In seven races, he has won once and finished third once. His best speed figure is 94. He'd be a real shocker.

11. OPTIMIZER (PP #10, 30-1 ML, 35.5-1 EB): I had OPTIMIZER ranked dead-last in 20th for the Derby, so do you really think his extremely even 11th place finish in that race changed my mind? I have NO FREAKING CLUE why he's running back here. I'll say it again: he sucks.

OK, fine: Other than DADDY NOSE BEST, I'm barely taking a stand with anything. But that's kind of the nature of the Preakness — it really plays to true horse skill, and I truly think the top five (TIGER WALK probably doesn't belong as a true win threat, but I'd take him at 30-1 over DADDY NOSE BEST at 15-1) are leaps and bounds ahead of hte rest of the field. 

So how will this race really play out?

There's no doubt that BODEMEISTER will get the lead. I'LL HAVE ANOTHER will absolutely apply at least token pressure as trainer Doug O'Neill is too good to let BODEMEISTER wire this field with ease. 

CREATIVE CAUSE will also be up close, with TEETH OF THE DOG not far back. I do believe that WENT THE DAY WELL won't be too far back, either, as trainer Graham Motion is no fool and will know darn well his horse can't try to rally from well back like ANIMAL KINGDOM did unsuccessfully last year. 

There's a term for races that really don't see horses pass each other: MERRY GO-ROUND. That's really by and large what I, and most others, expect this race to be. As they hit the top of the stretch, the crowd is going to roar as I'LL HAVE ANOTHER collars BODEMEISTER and CREATIVE CAUSE looms large in behind them. 

If CREATIVE CAUSE gets the perfect trip I think he might, I think he can catch these two in mid-stretch. Every once in a while you see a truly tight finish, and I could see these three horses hitting the wire noses apart. 

I don't think these three horses up front will slow down enough for WENT THE DAY WELL to make up the necessary ground, but if the pace gets closer to :46 than :47 or even :48, I'd say he has a pretty darn good chance ... but even then, I don't think he gets by CREATIVE CAUSE.

I see CREATIVE CAUSE at 7-1 or so as a darn good bet once again. He has beaten BODEMEISTER (in the San Felipe Stakes while carrying five more pounds), so there's no reason he can't run back to that effort. I'LL HAVE ANOTHER has beaten him twice in a row, but once was by a nose and once was largely a result of disparate trips. If there's a value win bet in the Preakness, it's CREATIVE CAUSE.

I'd truly be quite surprised if TIGER WALK or TEETH OF THE DOG actually won this dang thing, but they're fresh and talented horses taking on potentially weary horses here. I don't feel as comfortable tossing them as I do the others.

In short, here's how I'll play the race:

• $36 Dime super box: 1/2/5/6/7/9 (TIGER WALK/TEETH OF THE DOG/WENT THE DAY WELL/CREATIVE CAUSE/BODEMEISTER/I'LL HAVE ANOTHER

• $20 Win bet: 6 - CREATIVE CAUSE

I just really hope it's I'LL HAVE ANOTHER or CREATIVE CAUSE. If I don't get to see CREATIVE CAUSE return a nice chunk of change for me, I would at least appreciate three weeks of buzz about a possible Triple Crown winner. 


It'd be nice if the Belmont Stakes doesn't suck for a change!

The 4th Annual Wothism Kentucky Derby Preview

Could it be HANSEN flying to the wire
to win the 2012 Kentucky Derby?

*****5/5 UPDATE, 3:22 PM: About to head off to the Derby Party. My main plays, of course, are:

HANSEN TO WIN
CREATIVE CAUSE TO WIN

I'm also on ALPHA to win at his current price of 21-1 ... that's nuts.

I'm in small on DONE TALKING and PROSPECTIVE, as well.

Finally, I'm keeping a close eye on BODEMEISTER. I'll be in at 7-1. I'll also be in if GEMOLOGIST hits 10-1 (unlikely).

I'll play a tri box with HANSEN/CREATIVE CAUSE/ALPHA/BODEMEISTER over all of themselves, along with DONE TALKING and PROSPECTIVE.

*****5/5 UPDATE, 1:36 PM: The weather doesn't seem to be an issue. A few other thoughts:
1. Nevermind my thoughts on CREATIVE CAUSE. I think the value is there — enough to ignore the rumors.

2. BODEMEISTER at 7-1 and ALPHA at 22-1 are value. I won't be ignoring that those if they're still around come post time.

3. The track seems to be playing a bit more fairly in that the frontrunners aren't carrying their speed completely to the wire ... winners are coming from slightly off the pace in the two races I've seen thus far.

*****5/4 UPDATE, 10:32 PM: A couple pressing notes from today:
1. Early day reports that CREATIVE CAUSE would be scratched have since been refuted, but he no longer looks like a bargain at 12-1 or thereabouts. The trainer has entirely dismissed the reports and claims he wished he never mentioned the shoe incident (apparently he lost a shoe during shipping and a piece of his foot came off with the shoe) that arose from shipping CREATIVE CAUSE, so it really might be a non-issue. But reports from the track have pegged him as stiff and "sore looking", so there might be reason for pause.

2. If the track plays as fast as it did today, I'm upgrading HANSEN to a legitimately strong play. We had a few track records fall and the Kentucky Oaks, which was supposed to be pace-laden and set up wonderfully for closers, turned into a match race with the first two finishers. This would also be to BODEMEISTER's benefit, of course, but I would definitely feel better about HANSEN if the track plays this much to speed tomorrow.

3. That said, the early odds on HANSEN in the Derby are not particularly enticing. At present, he has been bet down to 7-1. NOT COOL. That said, only $100k has been bet into the pool, which represents less than 1 percent of the expected handle ... so we can't get too excited. If you're so inclined, you can view current odds here: http://www.drf.com/news/2012-kentucky-derby-union-rags-early-favorite-oaksderby-daily-double-will-pays For what it's worth (again, not much), I would make ALPHA a bet at 22-1 and also be on EL PADRINO at 34-1, with PROSPECTIVE at 69-1 being a true dreamer's delight.*****

If you know me at all, you know that writing the following 15 pages in a Microsoft Word document over the past few weeks has been a singular pleasure.

For the past five years or so, I haven't looked forward to any day on the calendar as I have the first Saturday in May.

Kentucky Derby Day never fails to deliver when it comes to drama and excitement. Like any other horse race, it's a true puzzle to figure it out ... only this is the most complicated and difficult puzzle of all. It's like putting together a puzzle without the picture of the finished product on the cover of the box.

I've been following most of the horses that will race in Saturday's Run For The Roses since last summer, but these horses are still developing and won't reach their true potentials until long after Saturday. That's part of the reason why it's so difficult to pick the winner of the Kentucky Derby.

Of course, the fact that there are 20 horses in the race also plays a factor, both because of the sheer number of options and the incredible traffic jams that seem to always play a factor in how this race plays out.

I've come a long way in handicapping the Kentucky Derby in the past four years. I began in 2009 by simply listing my (often horrible) visual impressions of horses in their last races, and then moved on to some rudimentary discussions of speed figures and pace in the 2010 version!

Looking back on it, last year's preview was pretty solid. Although my primary pick of SOLDAT didn't pan out, ANIMAL KINGDOM was pretty highly touted and one of my top three, so I have no qualms in saying that I finally picked the winner.

Still, it's downright impossible to quantify how much my handicapping prowess has grown in the past year. In one of the early previews, I jokingly referred to the fact that some handicappers were crazy enough to have "energy ratings", detailed spreadsheets with fractions, and something nutty called "pacelines" ... and that this was silly because it was all surely impossible to quantify.

And now I'm one of those crazy handicappers.

Frankly, I'm still in my infancy in using what's known as Sartin Methodology, but even having the spreadsheet set up to quantify some of the thought processes that I may have already been using is a huge advantage. In a race like the Kentucky Derby where it's so difficult to guess at how things might play out, having stone cold numbers to lean on can be a huge help.

At least I'd like to think so.

Overall, this preview (which honestly did ultimately hit the 15-page mark in Microsoft Word ... sad, I know) actually might harken back to the initial preview in that I have more visual evidence of certain things — only now, I at least know what I'm talking about. A horse closing quickly doesn't mean a thing unless the horses around him are also closing quickly; it's a mixture of visual impressions backed up by solid numbers.

What follows now is my 1-20 ranking of horses in the order of likelihood that I think they’ll win. Note that this does not necessarily mean that I think the No. 4 horse on this list is a better bet than the No. 10 horse … depending on the odds, the No. 10 horse may be a much better wager. A 4-1 line on my No. 4 horse is probably much less desirable than a 20-1 line on my No. 8 horse (for some of you with less betting accumen, 4-1 means that for each dollar that you wager, you will get four dollars back if your horse wins; 20-1 would return $20 for each $1 wagered). I’ll get into specifics on what horses I think will actually be a good bet later.

After each horse’s name, in parentheses will be the horse’s post number (1-20 with 1 on the rail and 20 the widest on the track), the morning line (set by Mike Battaglia, who Churchill Downs asks to create his best guesses at the odds on each horse) and the exchange betting line (taken from thegreek.com and likely the best representation of what we’ll see on Saturday).

For what it’s worth, I ranked the horses 1-20 last weekend (the odds only came out on Wednesday). In other words, you’ll get a pretty good idea of which horses I think might be good bets and which I don’t think as much of in relation to most others.

Finally, I'll probably have some updates on both Friday and Saturday as the final appearances/impressions of these horses roll in and as the weather comes into focus more clearly (rain could change this list quite a bit). I'll denote those changes with timestamps as I make the updates.

Now, without further ado ... here we go:

THE MAIN CONTENDERS:

1. UNION RAGS (Post Position #4, 9-2 Morning Line, 4.25-1 Exchange Betting): Here's one of the most hilarious things about horse racing: In the Florida Derby, UNION RAGS was a ridiculous 2-5 favorite. That means he would have had to win 60% of the time for you to break even on that bet. If he had won that race, he’d be an overwhelming favorite here in the Kentucky Derby and perhaps even considered a good shot to win the Triple Crown. But TAKE CHARGE INDY got away with some slowish early fractions and an easy lead, UNION RAGS got caught on the rail thanks to EL PADRINO tracking his every move, and TAKE CHARGE INDY held on to win the Florida Derby. Since then, some have questioned whether UNION RAGS really was as good as we all thought while others maintain trainer Michael Matz has UNION RAGS sitting on a big one similar to what he did with the great BARBARO in 2006. He has been working like an absolute stud at Churchill Downs this week and apparently looks like a million bucks. Of the two favorites, I think UNION RAGS is clearly a better wager as the pace setup for him will be much more suitable. Since he won his only start on an off track by his largest winning margin to date, I don’t think rain hurts him at all. The three questions raised by his detractors have been: 1. He hasn’t shown that great Beyer speed figure that some others in the field have popped off – so UNION RAGS may simply not be fast enough, 2. Despite a troubled and much longer trip than HANSEN in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he had every opportunity to run by HANSEN in the stretch and simply could not – was this cause for a class concern?, and 3. He may have some trouble getting the 1 ¼ mile trip with average winning distances of just 6.9 and 7.4 furlongs. I’m not overly worried about any of those issues, but they’re something to be considered.


2. BODEMEISTER (PP #6, 4-1 ML, 3.95-1 EB): Immediately after BODEMEISTER ran so huge in the Arkansas Derby (dial this race up on YouTube if you want to be impressed), I posted that he would be the Derby favorite. This was met with some initial questioning from the few people I know that like horse racing, but now it’s becoming clear that he almost certainly will be the favorite (although UNION RAGS is getting a lot of love for his strong workout last Saturday). BODEMEISTER has put up three straight triple digit speed figs and has shown a steady stream of improvement. Granted, his romp in the Arkansas Derby was over a field where the second best horse was SECRET CIRCLE, a horse whose connections decided he wasn’t good enough to waste his time in the Derby, but BODEMEISTER’s final time in the Arkansas Derby was more than a second better than the Grade 1 horses in the race prior. However, in that Grade 1 race, ALTERNATION grabbed an easy lead and kept it slow and reasonable throughout. BODEMEISTER, on the other hand, broke from post 12 and had to book it along with STAT to get to the lead, which he only grabbed after a 23 second first quarter. At that point, he had a completely uncontested lead and was able to click off 23.5 in the second quarter and then, this is the key: He was allowed to get away with a 24.86 third quarter. The race was absolutely over at that point. That's an absolute breather for a horse like BODEMEISTER. My initial impression was "Holy shit, he ran a half mile in 46.5 and then drew off like that?! This is next Triple Crown winner!" Upon further review, though, he's a bet against horse, unfortunately. Contrast how Mike Smith rode BODEMEISTER down the stretch with how HANSEN was ridden in the Blue Grass. Mike Smith knew his horse HAD to win to make the Derby. You can see that when he sees SECRET CIRCLE coming up to him, Smith gets BUSY with that stick. He knifes BODEMEISTER stiffly throughout the stretch and doesn't let up, giving him a vigorous hand ride all the way through the wire. Additionally, the Derby will be BODEMEISTER's fifth race so far this year. For today's breed of horses, that's a lot of work in 4.5 months. What I find extremely interesting with BODEMEISTER is that, while he's a speedy horse who has led at the second call of his three last races, his late pace has been the strongest of all in all of those races. That means one of two things: He's a super horse (possible!) or he has gotten away with easy leads. Fortunately, we can use the race shapes from Bris to discover that EVERY SINGLE RACE he has been in has been slower than average at the second call. Anyone can look at BODEMEISTER's finish in the Arkansas Derby and be amazed enough to bet him. That's why I won't.


3. HANSEN (PP #14, 10-1 ML, 11.5-1 EB): Between CREATIVE CAUSE and HANSEN, gray horses are well-represented in this year's Derby! HANSEN held off UNION RAGS at Churchill Downs to win the BC Juvenile last November (CREATIVE CAUSE was third) and hasn't done much wrong since. So how is he 10-1? Well, most still believe that he can't get the distance! It's all pedigree related. There's probably no horse that's more beloved by some and behated (I made that word up) by others. The haters state that he has NO CHANCE of getting the Derby distance. The lovers state that he already beat most of these same horses on this same course (in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile at 1 1/16 miles) and added a new dimension to his game by rating off the pace in the Gotham. His second-place finish to DULLAHAN in the Blue Grass was a blessing for those who like HANSEN. Had he won, he might go off as the Derby favorite. Horse racing is a funny game, especially when Dr. Kendall Hansen is your owner. This is a guy who is, first and foremost, someone who bets on horses. Don't discount that angle. If you pay close attention to the "stretch drive" in the Blue Grass, HANSEN (the horse) isn't asked for much of anything at all. It's my contention that that was NOT BY ACCIDENT. Even if you throw out my contention that Dr. Hansen wanting a better price in the Derby was a factor, HANSEN did not need to win this race AT ALL. This was a meaningless race to a horse that already had plenty of graded earnings in the tank. I am virtually certain that Mike Maker, HANSEN's trainer, told Ramon Dominguez, "Do NOT use this horse in the stretch. Get him out front, give him a few taps to make sure he remembers how to do this, but do NOT knife him repeatedly to win this race." Some people think HANSEN was gassed at the finish, but I didn’t see it that way at all. Would HANSEN have won the Blue Grass if pressed all-out? Who knows. Beyond the fact that it was irrelevant to begin with, the Blue Grass is run on polytrack, and in particular, a polytrack and a race that has functioned as a turf race won by turf horses! All in all, I think HANSEN is sitting on a big one in the Kentucky Derby. No, I'm not sure if he can get the distance — his sire's AWD was just 7.3 and his dam's was just 6.8 — but I think his talent is such that it can't be discounted. His post-position draw of No. 14 was pretty much perfect in that he can sit outside the main speed and also has a few extra feet of breaking room since the auxiliary gate begins at No. 15 to his outside. I’m not sure if he’s best-served on the pace or just off, but assuming that TRINNIBERG is going to gun it like it’s a sprint race, HANSEN will likely NEED to sit back just a bit and assume the lead as they enter the final turn when TRINNIBERG dies off a la SIDNEY’S CANDY a few years back. One of the biggest concerns is that HANSEN is white, and it's not because I'm some sort of horse racist. I think he'll garner a fair bit of support from the masses simply because he IS white, and if the horse racists out there get too bold in their wagering habits, he might not be a good bet after all.


4. CREATIVE CAUSE (PP #8, 12-1 ML, 10.5-1 EB): I have a soft spot in my heart for this one as he won me some nice change last fall in defeating DRILL (who has since proven to be a sprinter/miler, so it wasn’t that impressive, after all). He finished second to once-overlooked I'LL HAVE ANOTHER in the Santa Anita Derby, but there's not too much shame in that. The biggest concern for CREATIVE CAUSE is not unlike that of UNION RAGS in that he hasn’t put together that one big race where he throws up a big speed figure. On the other hand, in his four career races at greater than a mile, he has finished no worse than a length behind the winner (last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile) while closing from off the pace into what have been soft paces in every race BUT that BC Juvenile. Frankly, I pondered putting him ahead of both BODEMEISTER and HANSEN due to the pace concerns for the above two, but my biggest concern is his decline in the Santa Anita Derby to finish a nose back of I’LL HAVE ANOTHER — a horse I don’t think too highly of. Betting CREATIVE CAUSE to show might be the way to play here, but you could easily argue that his value at greater than 10-1 can’t be ignored.


5. GEMOLOGIST (PP #15, 6-1 ML, 6.25-1 EB): This is the only good horse that ALPHA has faced, and GEMOLOGIST showed a lot of moxie in holding that one off. However, the time in the Wood Memorial was painfully slow, and while time isn't everything, you have to wonder if it just doesn't mean that ALPHA isn't a very good horse to begin with, and GEMOLOGIST is just barely better. On the other hand, the adjusted pace numbers are strong and his Bris speed figure is much better than the final time itself would lead you to believe. The fact that an undefeated horse like GEMOLOGIST is only fifth in my rankings tells you everything you need to know about this year’s Kentucky Derby. It’s loaded! He’s well-bred and should like the extra distance, and that stubborn streak he showed in turning back ALPHA is huge in a race like the Derby. And you can’t fault a horse for winning, right? And not needing the lead is huge, right? It sure is. Frankly, I’ve swapped these Nos. 3-5 horses in my head 20 times already. It’s just that HANSEN and CREATIVE CAUSE have proven it against stronger competition than GEMOLOGIST has. That’s the only thing that separates these three.

THE POSSIBLE PARTY CRASHERS: 


6. ALPHA (PP #11, 15-1 ML, 12.5-1 EB): There's no doubt that this is a strong horse, but he hasn't faced more than one good horse all year long. That horse was GEMOLOGIST, and ALPHA simply couldn’t get by him even though he had every chance to do so. On the other hand, he should absolutely love the 1 ¼ distance, perhaps more so than any other horse in the field. He turned in a great workout last week and has been said to be looking like a million bucks. He comes from off the pace. This horse has a LOT going for him. The biggest issue I see is that he ran so poorly against most of these same horses on the same track last fall in the BC Juvenile. Since then, he has beaten up mostly on inferior competition. ALPHA wouldn’t surprise me that much, but he’s certainly not my pick of the crop in the 10-1 range.


7. EL PADRINO (PP #16, 20-1 ML, 20.5-1 EB): I haven’t understood the hype on this horse from many people for quite some time, including one of my favorite Derby previewers. This horse GENERALLY strikes me as a plodder. A grinder. Sure, those types often run well in the Derby, but I personally don’t think he’s brilliant enough to win it. On the other hand, he’s in the ALPHA group of really being bred for the classic distance, and he’s also coming off three straight 100+ Bris speed figures — the only other horses to do that are BODEMEISTER, ALPHA and UNION RAGS. That’s pretty heady company. EL PADRINO went off at 2.7-1 in the Florida Derby, the second choice to UNION RAGS at less than even money. He boxed UNION RAGS in around the track and came up completely empty in the stretch run. Afterward, there weren’t many excuses other than that he was paying too much attention to running against UNION RAGS rather than running his own race. So that’s troubling. And what really bothered me was his race in the Risen Star Stakes. Some people viewed this as a really gutsy win, as he dug in and nosed out MARK VALESKI. I, on the other hand, immediately declared that if EL PADRINO could barely hold off MARK VALESKI (who was withdrawn from Derby consideration earlier this week because his trainer basically thought he wasn’t good enough), he has no chance of winning the Kentucky Derby. I still believe that. I think.

THE OVERRATED ZONE:


8. TAKE CHARGE INDY (PP #3, 15-1 ML, 14.25-1 EB): I was on Take Charge Indy in the Florida Derby because I felt strongly that his early pace would be a huge help in holding off the pressing UNION RAGS and EL PADRINO. I was right and cashed win, place and show tickets. TAKE CHARGE INDY is a nice horse, no doubt. And yet, I'll have to pass on him in the Kentucky Derby because of that win. He's now overvalued, especially in a race he has little to no chance of earning the lead. Especially because he has Derby wizard Calvin Borel on board (you may remember SUPER SAVER from earlier in this preview … Borel is unbelievably overbet). That said, his speed figures are extremely strong in the last two races (109-104) and label him a real threat. In fact, that 109 figure is second only to EL PADRINO’s 111 in the same race, but I view those two figures with some questioning due to that exact fact. Either way, what bothers me about TAKE CHARGE INDY is that his two last races have been by far the best in his career, and they have both come either on the lead or within half a length of the lead throughout. I don’t believe he has any real chance of making the lead in the Kentucky Derby, much less holding onto it throughout, so he’s a pretty easy toss for me.


9. DULLAHAN (PP #5, 8-1 ML, 4.55-1 EB): Well, if you read my take on HANSEN, you'll figure out pretty quickly that I don't think much of DULLAHAN's Blue Grass win. Again: this is basically a turf race won by turf horses that can close. DULLAHAN is developing into a wise guy horse of sorts and will probably continue to do so (being bet down to near co-favorite status on the exchange betting site is a great example of this), but I don't think he's anything more than a plodder. This doesn’t necessarily mean he won’t pass a bunch of tired horses late, but he is unbelievably overrated here. In three career tries on dirt (granted, two were at six furlongs or less and the first two races of his career), he hasn’t finished better than third. I’m not sold that this horse is well-bred enough, either! I don’t think he’s a great fit for this distance, either! He was shut down very quickly after the wire in the Blue Grass. Honestly the only good thing I have to say about DULLAHAN is that his speed figures have consistently gotten better from last August: 77-80-94-96-98-102. If he improves again, I suppose he could be right there … but people at the track this week have said he looks generally uncomfortable. This horse is a massive, massive underlay.


10. I’LL HAVE ANOTHER (PP #19, 12-1 ML, 11.5-1 EB): Aside from a pretty great name, this horse has a pretty great past two performances. The last race in particular being extremely impressive with an all-out stretch drive to nip CREATIVE CAUSE by a nose. He should like the distance and all … but this is not a particularly well-bred horse. Breeding matters at this level a lot, and it’s pretty hard to see him having the class to come out on top. Additionally, he appears to need to be pretty close to the lead to do his best, and this Derby pace might make that tactical style much tougher than in his last two wins (which had very, very slow early paces). What’s more, PP #19 either ensures that he a) has to expend a lot of early energy to clear the horses inside of him and get near the lead, b) gets hung very wide, or c) is stuck much further back than he ever has been. This was a generally very “fair” draw in terms of not knocking out horses of true import with bad posts (BODEMEISTER didn’t draw the rail and UNION RAGS didn’t draw No. 20, for example), but I’LL HAVE ANOTHER really saw his chances take a hit when he got hung out in No. 19. At the same odds as horses like HANSEN and CREATIVE CAUSE, you’d be a fool to bet I’LL HAVE ANOTHER.


11. WENT THE DAY WELL (PP #13, 20-1 ML, 25-1 EB): Hey look, it’s ANIMAL KINGDOM, the sequel! Same owners, same trainer, same path to the Kentucky Derby. Some people are pretty high on this angle, particularly because the trainer, Graham Motion, seems so much more confident with his charge this time. Additionally, WENT THE DAY WELL posted a 103 speed fig in his last race, which followed a 93 in the race before and a 92 in his third race back. ANIMAL KINGDOM, on the other hand, went 97-96-93. To me, however, WENT THE DAY WELL is a definite pass based on a) the similarities to ANIMAL KINGDOM — he’ll be overbet — and that 103 speed figure in the Spiral. What made ANIMAL KINGDOM most intriguing was that nearly paired speed fig that showed he was ready to take another jump. For WENT THE DAY WELL, pairing the 103 probably wouldn’t be good enough to win, and he’s just as or more likely to regress from the 103 back down to the 98 or 99 level. WENT THE DAY WELL is adding blinkers, which could make an important difference, of course, but based on the overbet connections and the barely good enough horse (keep in mind that he beat nobody in the Spiral this year), there’s no value here at all.

THE LIVE(-ISH) LONGSHOTS:


12. PROSPECTIVE (PP #12, 30-1 ML, 42.5-1 EB): This one holds some modicum of intrigue as a well-bred horse on the improve. He has a mid-pack style that I think will bode pretty well in this year’s Derby and just paired the top two Bris figures in his career in back-to-back races. Horses that do this usually take another step forward in their next race, and with another improvement it’s within the realm of possibility that he could get up to win the Kentucky Derby. I’ll be monitoring the odds on this guy pretty closely and would probably take 30-1or better. The worry is that he was just a well-beat sixth in the Blue Grass, but again … that was a polytrack race. Yeah, he was 13th in the BC Juvenile last year … but that was last year. This year on dirt, he has two wins and one second after being two-wide in both turns. You could do much worse at 35-1 or higher.


13. DONE TALKING (PP #17, 50-1 ML, 35.5-1 EB): This winner of the Illinois Derby didn’t prove much of anything by beating a pretty pathetic field in that race, and his 10th place finish against poor competition in the Gotham the race before said even less about his ability. That said, he ran a very respectable fourth (beaten by just a head) in the Remsen last November (where he was neck and neck with EL PADRINO), and the Derby would be his third race off a layoff. The way he rolled through the Illinois Derby field said something about his ability to navigate traffic and accelerate, too. The outside post won’t hurt him at all as he’ll be pulled back, and he could benefit from the potential hot pace. He deserves to be a pretty long shot, but 35-1 or more might be worth a look.

THE DADDY’S WHO CAN'T WIN ON MOTHER'S DAY WEEKEND:


14. DADDY NOSE BEST (PP #10, 15-1 ML, 22.5-1 EB): This horse came home SLOOOOOOOOWLY and barely got past a flailing ISN'T HE CLEVER in the Sunland. He reminds me a lot of DULLAHAN, which, as you should know by now, doesn’t say much about either! DADDY NOSE BEST has been attracting some attention in the online communities I frequent, and I find that laughable. He hasn’t beaten anyone more than DONE TALKING has, and yet he’s 15-1 on the morning line?! He’s a turf horse who ran on turf for six straight starts spanning from last July to December. He won on artificial stuff in February and then won that Sunland Derby (a shitty, shitty field) and now he’s 15-1? I seriously don’t have anything good to say about this horse other than his closing style, and man … give me most of the other closers over this one! The biggest thing he has going for him is the support of anyone who has been watching him work the past two weeks — they all say he's sitting on a big one with the way he has prepared.


15. DADDY LONG LEGS (PP #1, 30-1 ML, 22.5-1 EB): The winner of the UAE Derby at the Dubai World Cup in his last race, this horse might end up getting overlooked due to his dull 12th place finish here last year in the BC Juvenile. That said, that probably makes sense. His win in the UAE Derby this year was the only race he’s run since that 11th in the BC Juvenile, so there’s the (pretty good) possibility that he blew his wad on that race. Additionally, that race was run on the artificial Tapeta surface, which typically favors turf pedigrees like DADDY LONG LEGS to begin with. The BC Juvenile defeat remains the only race he’s run on dirt. He likes to track the leaders, too, and since he got stuck in post #1, which destroyed even a great horse like LOOKIN’ AT LUCKY’S chances a few years back, it’s pretty hard to see this one bombing in for a win. Not worth betting on.

THE NO-CHANCERS:


16. TRINNIBERG (PP #9, 50-1 ML, 42.5-1 EB): Hoooo boy, now we have something to talk about! TRINNIBERG has not run further than seven furlongs in his seven-race career. The Derby is run at 10 furlongs. The average winning distance of his sire and dam was 6.1 and 6.4 furlongs. After he won the G3 Bayshore at Aqueduct on April 12 with his second straight triple figure speed figure, his connections said they would not enter the Derby because they wanted to do right by the horse and use him as the stud sprinter he seems on his way to being. And then … they did a complete about-face and entered him into the Derby. OK then! Completely stupid. What makes TRINNIBERG worth discussing at all is his early speed. In the BC Juvenile Sprint last fall, he ran a first quarter in 20.8 seconds. Since he has had the lead at the first call in his last five races, it appears he will do whatever it takes to get the lead. In his last race, that was only a 23.4 second quarter mile — actually fairly reasonable. But fast-breaking horses and leaders like HANSON, BODEMEISTER and TAKE CHARGE INDY, the big question is if TRINNIBERG will take the pace to a meltdown by clicking off a first quarter in :22 and a half in :44 or :45. The “smart” thing to do for these other horses would simply be to let TRINNIBERG go as if he wasn’t even in the race … he has no chance of making the distance, so don’t worry about him getting the lead. On the other hand, these horses have a mind of their own and are living creatures with adrenaline that pumps just like humans. If they typically like to run on the lead and they see another horse bolt ahead of them … they’re most likely going to tug to go after him. He’s a handicapper’s nightmare as it’s truly anyone’s guess. For me, though, horses that HAVE TO BE ON THE LEAD to win like TAKE CHARGE INDY get downgraded with his presence, as does BODEMEISTER who wants to be right there. A horse like HANSEN, on the other hand, gets upgraded with that ability he showed to be taken back. It’s a tough call, but that’s what makes it fun. I moved TRINNIBERG up from No. 20 to No. 16 after writing more about him as there is at least the question of whether he has more in the tank than we give him credit for. With the others, there’s no question that they don’t have it. I still don’t really think he has a chance, but if half of the field gets wiped out behind him in a tragic accident, he could maybe run 1 ¼ miles before anyone else can catch him.


17. ROUSING SERMON (PP #7, 50-1 ML, 55.5-1 EB): My thoughts on this guy are pretty neatly summed up by my piece on LIAISON. Not only does he have little chance of getting the distance, at least he hasn’t won in his last five starts. What’s funny about ROUSING SERMON is that the talk from the connections was that he wasn’t going, wasn’t going … OH WAIT NOW HE’S GOING! I actually moved this guy up from No. 20 after writing a little bit more about him — he has at least showed some determination in his race, and most importantly, trainer Jerry Hollendorfer usually doesn’t bother bringing horses to the Derby at all … so he just might have an ace up his sleeve. Still … that’s really hard to see.


18. SABERCAT (PP #18, 30-1 ML, 35.5-1 EB): I’m not entirely sure why, but this one has gained some support from the wise guy community. His breeding is pretty solid and he closed well enough in the Arkansas Derby, but when you’re running from ninth to third and still losing two lengths to the winner in the stretch, you’re not doing much. The only thing I could potentially get excited about with this horse is, as with some others, a pace meltdown up top. SABERCAT’S best race came in the Delta Jackpot where they went the first quarter in :22 flat up front and he rallied from 10th at the first call to win by four lengths. Still, his 92 Bris speed fig at the second call was much, much slower than the majority of legit horses in this field, so it’s hard to see him making any noise at all.


19. LIAISON (PP #20, 50-1 ML, 40.5-1 EB): Some of these horses just have no business being here. In three starts at age 3, he lost his jockey and did not finish in the first, finished fourth in the San Felipe and finished a very dull sixth in the Santa Anita Derby. Additionally, I don’t think he has any chance of getting the 1 ¼ miles. Someone threw out the idea that Bob Baffert was running him “because he can” (LIAISON won three races to close out his 2-year-old season, including the G1 Cash Call Futurity that gave him the needed graded earnings to make the Derby) and that it would mean there’s one less potentially legit horse to beat BODEMEISTER. I don’t necessarily disagree with that reasoning.


20. OPTIMIZER (PP #2, 50-1 ML, 32.5-1 EB): This horse drew into the field when MARK VALESKI pulled out on Tuesday, but it’s a pretty irrelevant change — I had MARK VALESKI ranked 18th and only had to move OPTIMIZER down a few spots. The best thing you can say about this horse is that he hasn’t shied away from competition, facing most of the horses in this field at one point or another. The most honest thing you can say about this horse is that he has gotten destroyed by most of the horses in this field. In six starts on dirt, he has finished better than fourth just once, and that was a fast-closing second to SECRET CIRCLE (who, again, was deemed not good enough to run here)., if OPTIMIZER wins, I might view it as a bigger upset than MINE THAT BIRD. At least with MINE THAT BIRD, there was some question of how he might run against better competition. With OPTIMIZER, there are no questions: he sucks.

SO, that’s my 1-20 breakdown. Here’s how I expect the race to generally play out:

PACE SETTERS:
TRINNIBERG, BODEMEISTER, TAKE CHARGE INDY, HANSEN

SECOND TIER:
GEMOLOGIST, I’LL HAVE ANOTHER, ALPHA, EL PADRINO, UNION RAGS, CREATIVE CAUSE

THIRD TIER:
DADDY LONG LEGS, WENT THE DAY WELL, PROPSECTIVE

FOURTH TIER:
DADDY NOSE BEST, SABERCAT, LIAISON

WELL BACK:
DULLAHAN, ROUSING SERMON, DONE TALKING, OPTIMIZER

And here’s my “race call”:

TRINNIBERG and BODEMEISTER fire out of the gates together and battle through strong early fractions, with the half mile going in :46 flat. Not more than a length back are TAKE CHARGE INDY and HANSEN, with GEMOLOGIST and I’LL HAVE ANOTHER just tucked in behind them.

As the field hits the final turn, TRINNIBERG weakens and BODEMEISTER assumes the lead. TAKE CHARGE INDY, too, shows signs of weakening, as HANSEN ranges up on the outside of BODEMEISTER and takes the lead at the top of the stretch.

Meanwhile, GEMOLOGIST, ALPHA, EL PADRINO, UNION RAGS and CREATIVE CAUSE are in behind the battling frontrunners and look poised to pounce on any sign of weakness.

HANSEN is supposed to stop, but he doesn’t. He keeps running determinedly toward the wire while BODEMEISTER can do no more. GEMOLOGIST is just a length back of HANSEN with a furlong to go and UNION RAGS gets off the rail and swings to the outside just a length back of CREATIVE CAUSE, who is alongside GEMOLOGIST. ALPHA dives to the rail and it appears to be a five-horse race at this point.

With 100 yards to go, UNION RAGS has snuck past CREATIVE CAUSE and GEMOLOGIST. ALPHA doesn’t appear to have enough today.

But HANSEN won’t quit. UNION RAGS is a half-length back and desperately trying to get to him, but he switches leads at the worst time and veers out once again, as he has been wont to do late in races.

GEMOLOGIST and CREATIVE CAUSE are still digging on, but they’re still a length back. CREATIVE CAUSE eyes the crowd and spooks just a bit, bumping into GEMOLOGIST, thereby more or less ruining both of their chances of getting to HANSEN.

UNION RAGS lunges late but can’t get there.

HANSEN is your 2012 Kentucky Derby winner … by a neck. UNION RAGS second, GEMOLOGIST third by way of DQ on CREATIVE CAUSE, who finishes fourth. PROSPECTIVE and DONE TALKING come flying late but can do no better than fifth and sixth. EL PADRINO is seventh.

So, all in all, here are the horses I WILL NOT bet:

BODEMEISTER
TAKE CHARGE INDY
DULLAHAN
I’LL HAVE ANOTHER
WENT THE DAY WELL
DADDY NOSE BEST
DADDY LONG LEGS
TRINNIBERG
ROUSING SERMON
SABERCAT
LIAISON
OPTIMIZER

Horses I PROBABLY WON’T bet:
GEMOLOGIST
EL PADRINO

Horses I MIGHT bet:
ALPHA
UNION RAGS

Horses I WOULD LIKE to bet:
PROSPECTIVE
DONE TALKING

Horses I ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL bet:
CREATIVE CAUSE
HANSEN

I might also play around with some tri boxes including my top 7 horses, but we’ll see how things develop in the next few days and adjust accordingly.

To sum it all up: My official pick is HANSEN. The race he ran in the Gotham was how I expect him to run this particular race. I think the Blue Grass was nothing more than a workout. He has won on this exact stage once before. I think he has as good a chance as any to do it again, so at 10-1 or more, I think he’s a terrific bargain.

The Best March Madness Pool Ever

Picking brackets is fun, but let's face it: It gets old fast and is over fast (if your title team loses early, you're pretty much done).

I have a revolutionary new idea that will operate under the following rules:

1. Each person gets a budget of $100 each week of the tournament (before the second/third rounds, before the Sweet 16/Elite 8, and before the Final 4/Championship).

2. Each person will select as many teams as many teams as they desire as long as said teams can fit in their budget.

3. Teams will earn points as follows:

Second round win = 1 point
Third round win = 3 points
Sweet 16 win = 2 points
Elite 8 win= 6 points
Final 4 win = 3 points
Championship win = 9 points

If you're wondering why the scoring works this way, it's because A) It's harder to pick the second game of the weekend than it is the first and B) It's harder to pick games later in the tournament.

4. The most points at the end of the tournament wins. If this pool has 10 or less people, the winner will take 70% and 2nd place will take 30%. If it has more than 10 people, the winner will take 60%, 2nd will take 30%, and 3rd will take 10%.

If you're wondering how the price per team will be created, I'll simply use a proprietary spreadsheet uses a proprietary rating that gives outcome a percentage (St. Bonaventure has a .005% chance to win it all).

As some examples, Wisconsin is 55.5% likely to win both games by my calculations and Virginia is 13% likely to win both games. When you add all of the calculations together from all 64 teams, you get a total of 16.

The idea is to use these percentages, then, to price each team. If a team were somehow 100% likely to win both games, their cost would be $50.

So, without further ado, here is the price list for week 1:

KENTUCKY        42
OHIO ST.        42
NORTH CAROLINA  37
KANSAS  34
MICHIGAN ST.    34
SYRACUSE        33
MISSOURI        31
WISCONSIN       28
DUKE    25
WICHITA ST.     25
NEW MEXICO      23
GEORGETOWN      22
BAYLOR  21
MARQUETTE       21
FLORIDA ST.     20
MICHIGAN        19
NEVADA LAS VEGAS        18
CINCINNATI      16
INDIANA 16
LOUISVILLE      15
MURRAY ST.      15
VANDERBILT      15
CALIFORNIA      13
FLORIDA 13
KANSAS ST.      12
NOTRE DAME      11
BELMONT 10
BRIGHAM YOUNG   10
SAN DIEGO ST.   10
TEXAS   10
XAVIER  10
LONG BEACH ST.  9
MEMPHIS 9
OHIO    9
PURDUE  9
TEMPLE  9
NORTH CAROLINA ST.      7
SOUTH DAKOTA ST.        7
ST. LOUIS       7
VIRGINIA        7
ALABAMA 6
CREIGHTON       6
ST. MARY'S      6
COLORADO        5
HARVARD 5
LEHIGH  5
ST. BONAVENTURE 5
COLORADO ST.    4
CONNECTICUT     4
GONZAGA 4
IOWA ST.        4
NEW MEXICO ST.  4
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI    4
VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH   4
DAVIDSON        3
WEST VIRGINIA   3
LAMAR   2
MONTANA 2
DETROIT 1
LONG ISLAND     1
LOYOLA MD       1
NC ASHEVILLE    1
NORFOLK ST.     1
WESTERN KENTUCKY        1

(Note that I just picked a random team from each First Four matchup, so you'll probably want to ignore those unless you feel really confident.)

Again, you can construct a squad of however many teams you would like AS LONG AS YOU STAY AT OR UNDER $100. You could literally have 28 teams in your stable! Unfortunately, almost none of these teams would be likely to win even one game, let alone two, so that's what you need to grapple with. Do you want to take a few near sure-things (like Kentucky and Ohio State) or do you want to do something in-between?

Whatever you do, remember that you'll be supplied with new team prices next week.

Entry is $30 per entry ... and you can have as many entries as you want. Feel free to share with friends, but if we get above 20 entries somehow, I'm keeping 5% for myself for doing the legwork.

If you want to be in, send me an email titled 2012 NCAA POOL WEEK 1 TEAMS with your teams and their prices included (to save me some legwork on inputting into the master spreadsheet) and $30 via PayPal gift (bobwothe@gmail.com) or check (2190 Willow Hill Dr., Neenah, WI 54956) by Thursday at 10 a.m. CST.

OH, last thing: In order to remove any issues with me knowing other people's picks before giving my own, I (and my wife if she chooses to play) will send our picks to a new email account each week before 11:59 p.m. CST Tuesday. At game time, I will send out an email with a spreadsheet containing everyone's picks AS WELL AS the login credentials to the email account that I create. This will provide a timestamped version of our picks so that y'all can rest assured that I am not cheating.

Let me know if you have any questions and feel free to share with others!