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| FROSTED is my top pick in the 2015 Kentucky Derby. |
Granted, that may not be saying all that much — this is only the seventh edition. But the showdown between AMERICAN PHAROAH and DORTMUND is unprecedented in my span as a serious horse racing fan. It truly sets up as an AFFIRMED and ALYDAR type of showdown, but let's not put them in the same breath as those two all-time greats just yet.
Beyond those two, you have CARPE DIEM, a horse with wins in four of his five lifetime starts, INTERNATIONAL STAR, undefeated in three starts at 3, MATERIALITY, undefeated and trying to break the curse of APOLLO in being the last horse to win the Derby with no starts at the age of 2, and the best foreign invader since ARAZI in MUBTAAHIJ.
It's safe to say that I am sufficiently excited.
As always, I have a few notes to get everyone up to speed and in the right mindset before we jump all the way in to the muddy water that is a 20-horse field.
Keep these things in mind
- These horses are 3-year-olds, meaning they’re not yet completely physically mature in the truest sense of the word. They're capable of big, generally unforeseen improvements from race to race. From a wagering perspective, this generally means that we're more interested in what a horse might be capable of than what he has already accomplished.
- These 3-year-olds are running 10 furlongs for the first time in their lives — the longest any of them has run to date is 9 furlongs, and some have even run less than that. While this may not seem like a huge difference, one furlong is 660 feet. Ergo, an extra furlong is equivalent to an extra 2+ football fields. This extra furlong is generally considered “the championship furlong” — good horses can win at 9 furlongs, but only “true champions” can win at 10.
- These 3-year-olds running 10 furlongs for the first time ever are also facing the best horses they have ever faced, in front of a much larger crowd than they have ever seen. Many of these horses have run against a few of the others, but this a packed 20-horse field full of only the best of the best (fields typically don’t exceed 14 horses in a single race). And the incredible size of the crowd can not be ignored: These are horses, flesh and blood … not machines. Temperament matters. For instance, PALACE MALICE strapped on some blinkers for the Derby in 2013 and was ultimately so scared of the noise without being able to see it in his newly limited field of vision that he sprinted off to some of the fastest fractions ever in the Derby! And this was from a generally calm horse that had never needed the lead.
The importance of pace
The Derby pace is always fast. It's the way horses are bred, it's the way brilliant young horses run, and with a horse that has natural speed in a 20-horse field, it's a lot safer as a trainer or owner to tell your jockey to get to the front end and see how far he can take them than to take your chances with traffic.
It's not impossible to win on the lead, but it will take an extremely special horse to do it. And, for a change, there are a few of those that actually may be capable of pulling it off.
With that said, here's where I expect the horses to fall into place as they settle into stride on the backstretch:
On/very near the lead: DORTMUND, AMERICAN PHAROAH, MATERIALITY, FIRING LINE, OCHO OCHO OCHO, MR. Z
Second flight behind the leaders: CARPE DIEM, UPSTART, BOLO, STANFORD, MUBTAAHIJ, ITSAKNOCKOUT
Third flight behind the leaders: FROSTED, TENCENDUR, EL KABEIR, WAR STORY, DANZIG MOON
At the rear: INTERNATIONAL STAR, FAR RIGHT, KEEN ICE
What I see as being different about this year's Derby is that there are more horses at either extreme than in recent memory. AMERICAN PHAROAH did "rate" in the Arkansas Derby, but he was still within a length of the lead ... he's not suddenly going to be in behind the leaders unless things go wrong. So we've got five horses who I think want to either be on the lead or within a literal length of it, and then we've got three absolutely stone cold closers.
I felt the biggest "losers" in the post position draw were, in order: 1. MATERIALITY, 2. CARPE DIEM, 3. AMERICAN PHAROAH, 4. UPSTART.
MATERIALITY *has* to go from the 3rd post; he has no choice unless they're really going to ask him to sit in a huge pack of horses when he's never done that even in a small pack before. I think that goose gets cooked early. CARPE DIEM has a tough choice breaking from post two -- does he go to avoid traffic, or does he conserve energy and hope they go faster than anyone can handle up front. AMERICAN PHAROAH is sort of like MATERIALITY with a little bit more of an option in that he doesn't *have* to go early and could still get a clean, albeit wide, trip ... but there's the risk of being extremely wide on that first turn, which could come back to haunt him late. UPSTART's post may not be horrible for him as he shouldn't get slammed too hard from either side and will have some options in terms of where he sits in the pack, but obviously he'll have to cover some additional ground from way out there.
I felt the biggest "losers" in the post position draw were, in order: 1. MATERIALITY, 2. CARPE DIEM, 3. AMERICAN PHAROAH, 4. UPSTART.
MATERIALITY *has* to go from the 3rd post; he has no choice unless they're really going to ask him to sit in a huge pack of horses when he's never done that even in a small pack before. I think that goose gets cooked early. CARPE DIEM has a tough choice breaking from post two -- does he go to avoid traffic, or does he conserve energy and hope they go faster than anyone can handle up front. AMERICAN PHAROAH is sort of like MATERIALITY with a little bit more of an option in that he doesn't *have* to go early and could still get a clean, albeit wide, trip ... but there's the risk of being extremely wide on that first turn, which could come back to haunt him late. UPSTART's post may not be horrible for him as he shouldn't get slammed too hard from either side and will have some options in terms of where he sits in the pack, but obviously he'll have to cover some additional ground from way out there.
With all of that said ... here's my overview of the Derby field. The horses are listed in reverse order of win probability and placed into tiers, because why not:
The "I bet that owner's suite is pretty nice" (horses from owners who got Derby fever) tier:
19. MR. Z (Post position #17, 66/1 offshore odds): This has to be a purely vanity play from the Zayat family, right? If this horse was named anything but MR. Z in a nod to their last name, he wouldn't be running, right? This horse has been running steadily since at least last August (12 starts pre-Derby is amazing these days), and gosh, maybe he deserves a break. He has just one win in 12 lifetime starts and likes to be forwardly placed in a field where that's not really preferred at all. The less logical among us might look back to December when he ran a narrowly beaten third to DORTMUND and FIRING LINE. But since then he has been beaten by AMERICAN PHAROAH, FAR RIGHT, INTERNATIONAL STAR, WAR STORY and STANFORD. All in all, if you decide it's a good idea to bet this horse, I want what you're on.
18. OCHO OCHO OCHO (Post position #1, 60/1 offshore odds): If you draw a line through his San Felipe in which he had a miserable trip, this seems like a somewhat enticing candidate based on speed figures alone. The problem here is that I think his speed is his best asset, and a) using it here would be suicide, so b) his trainer would like to see him laying off the pace. Which is, you know, what resulted in the worst race he has ever run. I feel like the best case scenario for OCHO OCHO OCHO is something like OXBOW's run in 2013 — staying on for a nice check in sixth place or so. But this horse winning or hitting the board would be a real shocker. I don't know that post #1 actually hinders him, however; his connections were talking about taking him a bit off the pace, which I thought was silly, so now that he's back in the 1 hole he just has to go and see what happens.
The "longshot late-running exotic players" tier:
17. WAR STORY (Post position #16, 50/1 offshore odds): I don't think he'll be too interested in a mile and a quarter, and I just generally feel like if he can't beat INTERNATIONAL STAR in races of all different types (fast/slow, fast/fast, slow/slow), then why should the Derby be any different? His last three works have been slow, too, and that seems weird to me given that he has fired bullets in the past. I don't need to see bullets, but in the absence of other mitigating factors, I want to see a horse running 12-second furlongs, more or less. If he's not doing that going four or five furlongs, he's not doing that going 10 furlongs, and he's not going to have the stamina he needs. Could this one clunk up late? Of course it's possible, but I think he'll run 14th or so.
16. FAR RIGHT (Post position #20, 50/1 offshore odds): He barely beat MR. Z on three occasions, and we know where that one landed. This one gets a mild upgrade due to the Mike Smith factor and the running style — he'll come from somewhere late, but if he couldn't get any closer to AMERICAN PHAROAH after fractions of :45 2/5 and 1:10 2/5 in the Arkansas Derby, it's tough to see him playing a major factor here.
15. KEEN ICE (Post position #14, 55/1 offshore odds): He almost belongs in the "nice owner's suite" tier, but then I thought to myself ... this is actually probably the best race for KEEN ICE to run in. He probably doesn't have the speed to win against any sort of decent competition at a mile or under. His one lifetime win came at Churchill Downs last September. His best Derby prep was the Risen Star, where they set a nice pace up front and he rallied strongly to get within three lengths of INTERNATIONAL STAR. So there's some legitimate hope here! What bothered me was his April 25 workout in 1:01 3/5. The time is slower than I'd like, but that's not a deal breaker on its own ... it's the fact that he went :11 4/5, :24, :36, :48 3/5, 1:01 3/5. So he came home in :13, which you would typically say means he got tired. So he doesn't have great speed and his stamina is now in question ... so I'd say you can probably make better bets than KEEN ICE.
The "severely pace compromised" tier:
14. FIRING LINE (Post position #10, 16/1 offshore odds): Up to this point, I haven't really been particularly bold with any of these rankings — I think any ranking of the Derby horses would be pretty similar to mine so far. But I expect for the informed reader to perk up now and say, "HOW DARE YOU PUT FIRING LINE AT #14?!?" He has been within a head of DORTMUND twice now, and destroyed an inferior field at Sunland by 14 lengths. Here's the deal: I don't think FIRING LINE wants any part of 1 1/4 miles. He was a winner turning for home in the Robert B. Lewis. He had more or less put DORTMUND away and was in front by a full length. Go watch the race. DORTMUND is being ridden along and Gary Stevens is sitting chilly on FIRING LINE. This was a 1 1/16 mile race and FIRING LINE has it won. He floats a bit wide and DORTMUND comes a little bit closer again but FIRING LINE re-rallies and it should be over. And then ... it's not. FIRING LINE shortens stride a bit as DORTMUND keeps reaching out. FIRING LINE looked tired to me. The Sunland Derby simply doesn't count because he was on such an easy lead — horses that get away like that do often post the best speed figures of their career, and it's clear he was much classier. The question is where he'll sit. The PPs are somewhat misleading in that he was actually 2-3 lengths back on the first turn of the Robert Lewis, so he's not the stone cold frontrunner he necessarily looks like, but you also know that he's not going to be mid-pack. This is where it starts to get tough, but you have to make some tough decisions in such a competitive race ... and with his limited distance pedigree, I feel pretty comfortable leaving him out of my wagers.
13. MATERIALITY (Post position #3, 12/1 offshore odds): Putting an undefeated horse who just ran a 105 Brisnet speed figure at #13 tells you all you need to know about the depth and quality of this Derby field. There's no doubt that Gulfstream was playing pretty weird, but he went 3/4 in 1:12 2/5 and then ran a 26+ second quarter mile to get a mile in 1:38.57 and came home in just under an eternal 14 seconds to cover 1 1/8 miles in 1:52 2/5. They say time only matters in jail, and there's no doubt that Gulfstream must have been ridiculous tiring because he and UPSTART ran away from the rest of the field, but he was also leg weary and bumped UPSTART late before putting him away. There's also the whole curse of APOLLO thing with MATERIALITY never running at age 2, and Pletcher's well-documented struggles with this kind of horse in the Derby. He's a typical Pletcher Derby disappointment — great speed figures as a horse that likes the lead but folds up his tent come the Derby. GEMOLOGIST comes to mind here. Post position #3 complicates things for him, as well; any chance of him sitting off the pace kind of went out the window there. He, like OCHO OCHO to his inside, pretty much has to go. And a lightly raced horse being inside is not a recipe for success in my eyes.
The "if they go fast enough up front ... " tier
12. TENCENDUR (Post position #4, 50/1 offshore odds): Before the Wood, he probably belonged in the "exotics-only" tier, but he showed enough speed there that he could be the type of horse that's peaking at the right time. There's no doubt that he'll be further back than he was in the Wood, where he he was only a half-length back at the second call on a slowly-playing track but with a fast pace (3/4 in 1:13 2/5 was actually considered +5 by the Bris race shape figures), so he figures to get first run on some of the deeper closers. His problem is probably pedigree at the end of the day — I'm not betting against him on that alone, but he was all-out as FROSTED kind of leisurely went by in the stretch. Given the huge step forward he took there, as well, I would kind of expect him to fall back to Earth a little bit ... the old "bounce." The bullets he has been working look nice on paper, but he did the same thing before a non-threatening fifth in the Withers. But maybe that was due to the off track? Ultimately he feels like a mid-pack runner who will finish mid-pack, but if things fall apart just the right way and he runs big, you couldn't say you were entirely surprised.
10. FRAMMENTO (Post position #20, 50/1 offshore odds): As far as late additions go, this is a pretty interesting one. Another pure closer, he closed to finish fourth in the Blue Grass after a slow early pace, and prior to that he closed stoutly in the Fountain of Youth on an incredibly tiring track. He probably belongs in the "exotics" category based on what he's done, but Nick Zito is incredibly high on him, and that's not something to be sniffed at. It is interesting, however, that Zito calls him a true stayer when the pedigree by itself wouldn't necessarily indicate that to me, at least from FRAMMENTO's direct parents. With that said, he's got plenty of stamina in his pedigree, and he'll be coming late. He's a must-use in the bottom of exotics and I may even put a few bucks on him to win.
8. ITSAKNOCKOUT (Post position #13, 50/1 offshore odds): If you throw out his Florida Derby — which I think you have to given that a) he didn't get 18 lengths worse from the Fountain of Youth, which is how much further behind UPSTART he was and b) he just worked beautifully eye-to-eye with MATERIALITY, who was 21 lengths ahead of him in that race — then you have a horse who has successfully sat off the pace (defined here as more than two lengths off the lead at the second call) and ran a triple digit Bris speed figure to win a race, which makes him one of just two horses to do so as a 3-year-old (FROSTED was the other). He didn't beat UPSTART in the Fountain of Youth, but he very well may have without the interference, and I think he'll be much more overlooked. The pedigree is a bit of a mixed bag but he is a son of Belmont winner LEMON DROP KID, so 1 1/4 should be plenty doable. He reminds me of SUPER SAVER, Pletcher's lone Derby winner that ran third in the Tampa Bay Derby and second in the Arkansas Derby before winning the Kentucky Derby. ITSAKNOCKOUT ran three times before finishing fourth in the Florida Derby and now heads to Louisville. I do like this horse, but realistically, he has to move forward in a big way to come home. If he gets the right trip, he could shock as a forgotten sort of horse.
The "talented question marks" tier:
7. MUBTAAHIJ (Post position #6, 12/1 offshore odds): Seriously ... who knows? If you watch the UAE Derby from start to finish, you'll hear the track announcer say he's enjoying "the run of the race" as they hit the far turn — he's perfectly positioned behind four frontrunners across the track, and the two in front of him keep going while the two outside stop, and so he's able to ease out as they straighten away for home beautifully. I think most horses in this Derby would have won that race with that kind of trip ... but would they have won it the way that MUBTAAHIJ did when he absolutely exploded and was ahead by eight lengths before you could pronounce his name? We can tell that he's bred for distance like no other horse in this race and that he has won twice at 1 3/16, but those races were run in 1:58 1/5 and 1:59. Again, time only matters in jail, but the Preakness at 1 3/16 has been won in a time worse than 1:57 only *ONCE* since 1961 (OXBOW in 2013). And they actually were going pretty fast early in the UAE Derby, so it wasn't necessarily a slow early pace that resulted in the slow time. On the other hand, his workout Arlington was allegedly "missed" by official clockers, but people on hand had him coming home his final two furlongs in :23 flat despite not switching leads. I think he'll be wildly overbet with all of this said, but honestly ... WHO KNOWS. Drawing the #6 post is a perfect post for him, and actually if he does stay at the (what I deem to be ridiculous) morning line of 20/1, I'd be fairly interested after all.
6. UPSTART (Post position #19, 15/1 offshore odds): Derby trivia: Which horse has four triple-digit speed figures yet is being mostly ignored? Yep, it's UPSTART. He has never run worse than third, and crossed the wire first twice in his three preps (debatably should have been placed first in all there, but as it was he officially finished first in one and second in the other two). I think the reason he's being overlooked is because he looked so weary late, and when you look at his finishes compared to MUBTAAHIJ, it's just a completely different look. Even throwing that out, you would logically say that 1 1/4 miles may not be his bread and butter — he is the grandson of AP Indy, but his sire, Flatter, has been more of a speed influence. So there's a huge question mark here because he's clearly capable of a performance that could beat just about any of these even on their best days (see the Holy Bull), but there's also all of these questions if you should believe your eyes or the speed figures. Nobody seems to be talking about him despite a couple of bullets down at Prairie Meadows, though, which I do like — I think there's some definite value here here if you're willing to accept the possibility that he comes up empty in the stretch. Post position 19 certainly complicates things for him a bit, but it also feels like perhaps a blessing in disguise. If you do accept that he's one of the fastest horses here and able to make his own trip, he's certainly able to do that from out there; he can go forward if he breaks well, or he can take back if he doesn't.
5. BOLO (Post position #9, 45/1 offshore odds): I swapped him with UPSTART after reading reports on how well he's getting over the ground at Churchill, which has historically been kind to turf horses (ANIMAL KINGDOM comes to mind recently). If he hadn't been steadied in the San Felipe, I think he could have gotten to DORTMUND. If he hadn't been seriously hung wide in both turns in the Santa Anita Derby, he could have maybe gotten to DORTMUND. And he was working incredibly well at Santa Anita, so if he's getting over the ground even better at Churchill ... there could be something here. His damside pedigree is a little bit lacking in distance to my eye, but Steve Haskin says he'll relish it, and I'll take his opinion over mine. He should sit a nice midpack trip and if he gets a clean one, I think he could offer fantastic value at potentially large odds.
4. FROSTED (Post position #15, 15/1 offshore odds): It doesn't get much better than his Wood Memorial win. DORTMUND and AMERICAN PHAROAH are freaky good, and MATERIALITY is undefeated, and other horses have a lot of great qualities ... but nobody ran a race like FROSTED in the Wood. It was a nice, clean trip, and he didn't beat any particularly great competition, but he was wide in both turns and still just rollllled in the stretch without any obvious asking from Joel Rosario. TENCENDUR is getting knifed like crazy and Rosario looks like he's winding up in a workout until very late in the stretch when he starts asking a bit, but even then, I don't think he ever feels the whip. He also ran a huge 3/4 of a race in the Fountain of Youth before apparently running into some breathing problems and floundering in the stretch. If you trust that the throat surgery and smaller blinkers and whatever the heck else they did to him simply just worked, then he would belong in the next tier of obvious favorites. But did he really solve the issues, or was he just facing a substandard field? Will he bounce off that huge effort, or is he freaky along the lines of AMERICAN PHAROAH with these things fixed? I think he will offer some value and likely end up as my "official" play. He drew absolutely perfectly in post 15, which affords him some extra space to his inside since he's the first stall in the auxiliary gate.
The "obvious favorites" tier:
3. AMERICAN PHAROAH (Post position #18, 1.85/1 offshore odds): Do you hear that? It's another pundit or jockey or trainer or groom or your wife's sister's friend praising AMERICAN PHAROAH. The buzz around this horse is insane. He might be the second-coming of SECRETARIAT ... or maybe we just live in the year 2015 where Twitter has taken over and become a sort of resonance board where people just generally get too excited about everything and turn everything into a huge deal. Don't get me wrong — this horse looks tremendous in everything he does. He has done nothing wrong in his races. But allow me to deconstruct this fable with one sentence: This horse is the second-coming of 2011 2-year-old champion HANSEN. Both were brilliantly precocious speed horses, and both were the 2-year-old champions of their class. Both had huge question marks hanging over their heads in regard to being able to rate, and both proved they could in a big Derby prep (HANSEN in the Gotham, AMERICAN PHAROAH in the Arkansas Derby). Both had question marks about the competition they beat. The big difference, of course, is that AMERICAN PHAROAH won his final prep in a huge way, whereas HANSEN lost the Blue Grass after setting a blistering early pace. Ultimately, I see these horses as very similar. I loved HANSEN in 2012 leading up to the race, and then he got heated up pre-race and choked by the jockey before not firing in the lane and running, and now I'm rambling because I'm still upset that I was fooled by him. NEVER AGAIN. The fact is that AMERICAN PHAROAH very likely is better than HANSEN, but I just think AMERICAN PHAROAH hasn't had to deal with anything but perfect trips and slow paces. What happens when 20 horses are there and they're flying up front? Our eyes lie to us all the time. But the third quarter mile fractions — which to me tell a huge story in the outcome of route races — of his two three-year-old races have been as follows: :25 3/5 and :24 3/5. That's him taking a break on the lead in all of those races. Compare that to DORTMUND who has gone :23 4/5, :24 2/5, and :24 1/5. And everyone wants to bet on the slower horse who has proven less because he looks good when he does it and his trainer has been talking him up? Especially at a short price, no thanks. And does he really want to go 1 1/4 miles? His damside pedigree doesn't exactly give me the best feelings about that, either. Our eyes lie to us all the time. I will take a strong stance against AMERICAN PHAROAH and either be blown away by greatness or blown away with money in my pocket. It's a no-lose scenario. And being marooned out in post #18 seems less ideal to me than some folks are saying. He's a front-running horse who wants to be up near the lead, and I actually would say from out there they are more likely to just outright send him from out there, lest he be caught 5-6-7-wide into that first turn (because there are plenty of horses inside him that probably want to go early).
2. CARPE DIEM (Post position #2, 8/1 offshore odds): This is a horse who is just professional when it comes to racing. He'll likely be the third choice, but you could make a strong argument that he should actually be the favorite if you discount more truly early speed horses. After being purchased for $1.6 million last March, he has almost earned all of that back in five lifetime starts, winning four of them and running second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall when getting a wide trip. With that said, I'm not convinced he's the mid-pack horse people want to label him as. When you look at the past performances, this horse has been within a half-length of the lead at the second call in all but one of his races. I don't think he'll be that close in the Derby, and then what? And while he's a complete professional in the race in that he ran well even in the BC Juvenile despite a bad start and a wide trip, he has been tough pre-race and prone to getting washy and not wanting to go into the gate. The distance should absolutely not be an issue, however, and while we're playing the 2012 Derby comparison game, he does remind me a bit of I'LL HAVE ANOTHER in that he won two major preps heading into the race but still will be overlooked. And as a final feather in his cap, he came home strongly in :35 3/5 in his last work. I don't think he'll offer a ton of value here, especially now that he's coming out of post #2. As discussed earlier, he has actually shown good speed in many of his races, so does Pletcher think about sending him, too? Or does he want MATERIALITY to get that run to the rail, forcing CARPE DIEM take back a bit more?
1. DORTMUND (2.5/1 offshore odds): What this horse has done in winning his three preps this year has been incredible. He has run against good horses and he has responded with big wins. He battled tooth and nail with FIRING LINE in the Robert B. Lewis, getting passed but responding in the lane to prevail as that pair finished 21 1/2 lengths ahead of the next finisher. His San Felipe was probably the least impressive as he had to dig in to hold off PROSPECT PARK and BOLO after slow fractions, but the important thing is that he did while coming home the final three furlongs in just a shade over 30 seconds and was a stellar overall time of 1:41 3/5. And finally, he won the Santa Anita Derby after laying down six furlongs in 1:10 2/5. To that end and to round out the 2012 Kentucky Derby comparison game, DORTMUND very much reminds me of BODEMEISTER in that I think they're both just kind of freaks. It's almost as if there's a contract that you have to mention DORTMUND's size when you write about him, and so I'll do so here yet again: It's a pleasure to watch this near-Clydesdale run. Did he briefly waver a bit in the stretch of his last two races? Yes. Might he have trouble with the final quarter mile? Yes. Does his size leave him more vulnerable to traffic trouble if he doesn't break well enough? Yes. Is he potentially subject to a pace duel with any random horse that decides going to the front is worth a shot? Yes! I do think the latter concern is the biggest once to me — I think he has to go to the front and take them as far as he can, but he may be able to work out a CALIFORNIA CHROME-type trip ... not necessarily right on top of the lead, but get into the clear and have space to work with all the way around. I think Baffert's ideal world, though, is for DORTMUND to be leading and AMERICAN PHAROAH sitting off his flank as they hit the far turn, and from there it's just a question of who's more battle-tested and if they can get the distance. The last tidbit I'll add here is that his last work was seemingly slow at 1:13 3/5 ... until you consider that a few clockers had him coming home in a six furlong work in :22 2/5! That's freaky. He drew a nice post whereas the other main competitors didn't; even if he doesn't get away well and go to the lead, he won't get slammed around. I truly think he should be favored here.
THE PICKS
OK, if you're still with me after all of that, two things: 1. Thank you. 2. Don't you have something else to do?
Ultimately, while I do like DORTMUND, I think he'll be overbet as he's too prone to pace pressures and traffic trouble to take a short price.
CARPE DIEM does fit well, but he's stuck in that #2 post, and Lord only knows what kind of trip he'll be able to work out from there. If I can get 10-1 on him, I'll bet it, but otherwise I will pass.
I ultimately think FROSTED and UPSTART are the two horses that have the right kind of running style to win and will be somewhat overlooked in the wagering, although I have seen some sharp bettors giving some attention to each. As a longer shot, BOLO offers a ton of value, as well. I think these three are capable of running the same kind of race as CARPE DIEM at what figures to be 2-3-4-5x the price.
ITSAKNOCKOUT might be worth the smallest of bets, but there has been a mixed opinion on him throughout the week, and he almost didn't run ... so I've cooled on him a bit.
KEEN ICE and DANZIG MOON are the late-running horses that interest me most. They should stay on and could be eligible for a piece. FRAMMENTO also belongs in the mix.
With all of that said, here are the *official* Wothism plays:
To win/place: FROSTED = $50
To win/place: UPSTART = $30
To win/place: BOLO = $20
Trifecta: DORTMUND, BOLO, FROSTED, AMERICAN PHAROAH, UPSTART with CARPE DIEM, DORTMUND, BOLO, FROSTED, AMERICAN PHAROAH, UPSTART with CARPE DIEM, DANZIG MOON, DORTMUND, BOLO, ITSAKNOCKOUT, KEEN ICE, FROSTED, AMERICAN PHAROAH, UPSTART, FRAMMENTO = $100
I do somewhat want to toss AMERICAN PHAROAH entirely, but there's absolutely a chance that we're dealing with a horse that is simply by far the best of his generation. And if DORTMUND somehow gets out there without much pace pressure, he's obviously dangerous and the most likely winner in my eyes. I'd rather risk a little bit more than kick myself after the fact for missing out on a huge payday (and unless it goes AP-DORTMUND-CARPE, it will be a huge payday).
BONUS: KENTUCKY OAKS PREVIEW
First off, the Oaks card is fantastic ... even more so than usual. Graded stakes action starts at 1:26 Eastern with Race 6 and runs through Race 11, the Oaks, at 5:49 Eastern. That's a nice Friday afternoon to get the weekend started right.
With that said, the Oaks is the main attraction, and STELLAR WIND is the 7/2 morning line favorite off of a few dominating performances in the Santa Anita Oaks and San Ysabel. She can seemingly make her own race, having won in a few different ways.
CONDO COMMANDO and I'M A CHATTERBOX are fairly easy to dismiss because I think the odds are high that they, or others here without hope to begin with, will run each other into the ground at 1 1/8 miles. CONDO COMMANDO got a dream run with only PUCA to deal with in the Gazelle, and PUCA is not a front-running horse at heart.
INCLUDE BETTY is an interesting longshot as she rallied into a slow pace from 13 lengths back at the start to win the Fantasy at Oaklawn. With a faster pace up front, she may be even better. OCEANWAVE came out of the same race and while she wasn't as far back, dealt with traffic issues before closing and missing by a neck. Without knowing exactly what happened that day at Oaklawn, I might hazard a guess that the track was favoring closers.
BIRDATTHEWIRE looks a lot like STELLAR WIND to me ... very hard to go against. Can make her own race and has overcome trouble to win, as well.
Finally, we come to PUCA, who I think will offer value when she can lay off of a strong pace (as opposed to needing to make it against CONDO COMMANDO last time). She hasn't really gotten much of a clean trip or a great setup in any race she's run (minus her smashing 16-length maiden win), and I think she very well may be just as good as the top pair if she gets the trip.
So there's your super or tri box: BIRDATTHEWIRE, STELLAR WIND, PUCA, INCLUDE BETTY and OCEANWAVE.
To win, I'll try to beat the two favorites with the longer shots PUCA, INCLUDE BETTY and OCEANWAVE — small plays, no doubt, but I think there's enough value there to warrant it.
To win, I'll try to beat the two favorites with the longer shots PUCA, INCLUDE BETTY and OCEANWAVE — small plays, no doubt, but I think there's enough value there to warrant it.
