2015 WOTHISM BREEDERS' CUP PREVIEW

I'm so giddy.

For a guy who's undergoing willful injury to his pelvic region (read: I'm getting a vasectomy) on Thursday, I couldn't be much more excited about this week. One hundred and forty hours to go to the Breeders' Cup Classic and an absolutely epic showdown between the likes of AMERICAN PHAROAH and BEHOLDER (and plenty of others that I'll probably actually bet rather than those two, but we'll get to that later).

The post position draw is tomorrow, Oct. 26, so I won't get too in-depth with my previews just yet. But given my level of excitement, I need to blow off some steam here, so what follows is a reverse 13-1 ranking of the races I'm most excited for:

#13 JUVENILE TURF: Listen, I watch a lot of horse racing. And the list of names on the pre-entries list is almost wholly unfamiliar to me. Some of the Euros making the trip over seem to be pretty good at first glance, but if this wasn't a Breeders' Cup race, I would think about not betting it at all.

#12 JUVENILE FILLIES TURF: This race at least has some recognizable "bigger" names in line to run against the strong Euro contingent. I'm still not too excited about betting a number of juveniles going long on the turf for the first or second time, but it's one of the better juvenile fillies turf renditions I can remember.

#11 TURF SPRINT: Don't get me wrong, I like some of the horses here, but this doesn't do much more for me than any other random G3 turf sprint across the nation on any other random Saturday. This was one of the most exciting races last year with BOBBY'S KITTEN storming from well back late to claim the title, but that was also on the downhill turf course at Santa Anita vs. a rather pedestrian 5.5 furlongs at Keeneland.

#10 F&M TURF: It's nice to see STEPHANIE'S KITTEN keep rolling along and all, and seeing her against the seemingly top-notch Euros that are coming will be nice, but the rest of the American contingent is like the rest of this division ... uninspiring.

#9 JUVENILE: Maybe NYQUIST will show us that we have an incredible Kentucky Derby candidate on our hands. But I doubt it given the pedigree, and none of these others juveniles have really shown me all that much just yet. I hope we do see something transcendent, however, and that's always the fun part of this race.

#8 F&M SPRINT: This race might turn out to be better than I'm giving it credit for right now, but JUDY THE BEAUTY on real dirt is pretty "meh," I'm yet to be convinced that CAVORTING is doing anything other than beating up on subpar 3-year-old sprinters, and ARTEMIS AGROTERA hasn't run in a year. The nice thing about this race is that I think I'll get good betting value on whoever I ultimately like, but I'm just not blown away by the quality of the field at all.

#7 TURF MILE: I will always call it the *TURF* Mile simply because I don't understand why nobody else does. Calling it simply THE MILE just seems weird to me, but maybe they do that because the only people that seemingly care about sending good horses to it are the rest of the world. The defending champ KARAKONTIE is back along with a bunch of other top-notch foreigners, but it's hard to get *too* excited about horses you haven't seen all year long. But I'm still plenty excited.

#6 JUVENILE FILLIES: I'm more excited for this race than I have been in a while given how incredible SONGBIRD has looked to date and then the lineage of RACHEL'S VALENTINA and how good she has looked to date. In fact, I'm probably unreasonably excited for this one, but so be it.

#5 DIRT MILE: A lot of serious horse racing people seem to like to disparage the Dirt Mile as being unworthy of Breeders' Cup designation. But these same people love the Met Mile. Go figure. Anyway, we'll wait to see exactly who ends up here given that some of the bigger name horses are cross-entered, but while LIAM'S MAP will be strongly favored to be the next GOLDENCENTS here, horses like VALID and MR Z and BRADESTER are likely to make him work early, so TAPITURE/RED VINE/BARBADOS could be interesting late. Should be a fun one.

#4 TURF: Most of this ranking is based on seeing what GOLDEN HORN can do. And then there's THE PIZZA MAN, one of the all-around coolest horses in training, so those two alone sort of almost make up for the absence of FLINTSHIRE, who chose to go to Japan instead of coming back to the Breeders' Cup. A lot of the other American horses are your run of the mill Saturday Grade 1 turf stake types, but they're all hard-trying types you have to respect.

#3 DISTAFF: I'm really glad BEHOLDER is running in the Classic for a lot of reasons, but the Distaff benefits from it almost as much as the Classic. With BEHOLDER, the Distaff is essentially a walkover. Without her, there are probably 10 horses with a very reasonable chance of winning. I see a lot of very good horses, but no great horses (UNTAPABLE can't be called great at this point, sorry). The pace scenario will be interesting. Can't wait.

#2 SPRINT: This is American racing, so the Sprint is always super-competitive and intriguing. PRIVATE ZONE running here and not the Dirt Mile seems like a mistake to me, but alas, we'll see how things go for him against the rest of the top-notch speed signed on. I'm really interested to see what happens with RUNHAPPY. Other than his ruinous start in the one-mile LeComte, he has repeatedly impressed the hell out of me, and so far his sprint efforts have stamped him as one of the most incredible speed horses I've ever seen. Even just those two facing off would be exciting, so I can't wait to see what happens with all the rest.

#1 CLASSIC: Well, duh. This is simply a stupendous running of the Classic. You've got the boy vs. girl AMERICAN PHAROAH-BEHOLDER story line, and that alone would make this race absolutely awesome. But then you toss in GLENEAGLES, a superlative miler in Europe. Stout closers like TONALIST and HONOR CODE. Great 3-year-olds in FROSTED and KEEN ICE. And, finally, a lightly-raced 4-year-old in SMOOTH ROLLER who could be the most talented horse in the field somehow. (I'm not mentioning EFFINEX and HARD ACES for a reason, although it's worth noting that EFFINEX beat TONALIST at this distance in their last try on a fast track!) Anyway, I have a million words to come on this race, but I'll tease it by saying that I see the winner coming from off the pace ...

All in all, I'd say I'm truly *excited* for six races, *looking forward* to three, and then sort of just *along for the ride* with the other four. Saturday is of course the best day with nine races of top-tier competition, but Friday notches two of the top five despite only having four races (unfortunately, it also has the bottom two). That's all for now -- volumes more on the way in the next few days!

The Pre-Post Draw 2015 Belmont Stakes Preview

Triple Crown fever is upon us.

Since I'm actually attending the Belmont Stakes for the second straight year (and the third time in the past five years), I wanted to get my thoughts organized a bit earlier than usual so I'm not scrambling after the draw.

As such, this will lack the pomp and circumstance that typically accompanies my previews. Let's just jump right in with an 8-1 reverse order of win likelihood:

8. FRAMMENTO: I will admit that I drank the Nick Zito Kool-Aid before the Derby. He was so high on him and said so many good things that I ignored the raw numbers and said that he actually had a reasonable shot. Well, no. Zito said he's a "true stayer," and based on how evenly he ran in the Derby, maybe that's true. But the idea that he could fall 14 lengths back and then come with a big run late here is just really hard to fathom. I don't even think I would use him in exotics at this point.

7. KEEN ICE: The pedigree is one of the better ones as he's by CURLIN out of an AWESOME AGAIN mare. And, given that, I would say you should use him at the bottom of your exotic plays. That said, there are plenty of horses that can run 1.5 miles ... but can he run fast enough to be competitive here? He's 1-for-8 lifetime, and given how poorly his type of late speed plays in races that are this long, it's hard to imagine him closing with aplomb to win no matter how fast they go early.

6. MUBTAAHIJ: Remains a total mystery to me. A very ho hum Derby that may have been impacted by a dead-ish rail, or maybe not. The positive way to look at him is to say that he needed a race in this country and some time to adjust before being ready to fire his best shot, and his distance pedigree looks great. The negative way to look at him is to say that the distance pedigree is inflated by most of those offspring running in longer races to begin with, and that the Derby showcased that all he really ever did overseas was beat up on inferior horses. Gun to my head, I think the performance of DORTMUND in the Preakness kind of threw out the idea that the rail was that bad a place to be on Derby day, and MUBTAAHIJ just isn't quite good enough at this level.

5. TALE OF VERVE: This horse, along with the previous two, could all be swapped depending on my mood, but ultimately I think there's more potential here. He has a similar solid pedigree; even though TALE OF EKATI has mostly thrown sprinting types, 2008-era Bob Wothe picked the eventual sixth-place Belmont finisher to win the Belmont in the pages of the Washington County Daily News given his own pedigree, so I think there's hope here. Additionally, he's flashed more early pace than KEEN ICE (and been faster in the mornings), had to go wide and check in the Preakness, and still made up 10 lengths on AMERICAN PHAROAH in the final mile or so of that race. Rosario knows Belmont very well, so that's another advantage here. Of the true longshots, this is definitely my preference.

4. MATERIALITY: Upsetting the apple cart again here a bit with my dim view of this one. He had a horrible start in the Derby that put him behind horses where he's never been before, and then he had to go wide as he picked off horses coming down the stretch, making up more than three lengths on the leaders to finish a solid sixth. As one of the lone horses to close at all in the Derby, that's noteworthy. The pedigree also looks very nice. But for whatever reason, I felt like the Preakness would have been a better shot for him, and I think the race dynamics don't work out so well for him here. He's probably the truest pace challenger for AP, so he sort of *has* to go early. AP and others might let another longer shot go on the lead if someone else went for it, but I don't see MATERIALITY getting free lunch if he looks like he might be all alone. From that pedigree perspective he does look great, but I think he's more likely to act as a sacrificial lamb than be the winner.

3. MADEFROMLUCKY: Huh? How is Pletcher's other horse ahead of MATERIALITY? Simple: I think he has every bit as good a shot at likely three times the price. In fact, I think it's more likely that MATERIALITY and AMERICAN PHAROAH burn each other out on the lead and MADEFROMLUCKY comes from in behind them to pick up the pieces than MATERIALITY somehow putting away AMERICAN PHAROAH and rolling on home to win. I also think, depending on the draw, that MADEFROMLUCKY gets the "Commissioner trip" from last year where the rest of the field lets a longer shot lope along on the lead and he takes them all the way. I don't think other horses will let MATERIALITY get away on the lead by himself, but they might let MADEFROMLUCKY go if things work out that way. Speed figure wise, his 99 fig in the last race was on par with what AP did in the Derby and Preakness, and other than a 107 from FROSTED in the Wood and a 105 from MATERIALITY in the Florida Derby (p.s. I don't buy that number for MATERIALITY at all), that's on par with their best performances, too. At 15-1(ish), MADEFROMLUCKY is the value play if you buy into his continual improvement with Pletcher's impeccable Belmont record. 

2. AMERICAN PHAROAH: OK, stop scoffing. Throw away all of the hype and superlatives and I have some serious questions. 1) Can Victor Espinoza actually win at Belmont? He's 4/73 lifetime? Granted, numbers can say a lot things, and maybe of his 73 mounts, you would only expect him to win about 4 times. But ... that's unlikely given the quality of mounts a jockey of his caliber gets? Is it statistically significant either way? Probably not, but it's something to keep in mind. 2) Can AMERICAN PHAROAH run 1.5 miles on a dry track? Listen, if the track comes up sloppy, he might as well be 1/9 as he obviously loves the stuff. But on a fast track, I have serious questions about his pedigree getting him the distance. 3) Does Baffert know what he's doing? Not training him over the Belmont surface was officially due to the fact that he liked Churchill and didn't get sore running over it, so why run the risk that he wouldn't like Belmont and get sore? On its face, it actually makes a lot of sense to me. But others aren't so sure. Does this mean he actually *is* a bit sore? Will he show up and not be comfortable by race time? 4) Who did he beat in the Preakness? FIRING LINE hated the slop just as much as you would have expected him to. DORTMUND looked over the top and not totally comfortable. TALE OF VERVE, a horse still eligible for a N2L, ran second, narrowly beating out a G3 winner in DIVINING ROD. So, you know ... he didn't really beat anyone.

With all of that said, let's bring the hype back in. Baffert has been saying since before the Derby that this horse is "different," and all along the whispers about how he always knew AP was better than DORTMUND have been there. His workouts have continued to be absolutely amazing, and there are no whispers of weight loss like there were with CALIFORNIA CHROME last year. Just watching him run ... it's quite literally like he's floating or skipping or whatever you want to call it. He just barely seems to touch the ground. He's surely not the only horse in history to look that good, but he's the best mover I can remember seeing. I can't advocate betting him at what will likely be 3/5 or so, but I'll be there, and I would love to celebrate history. And yet ...

1. FROSTED: He had a generally horrible trip in the Derby, getting shuffled back early and then going impossibly wide turning for home, yet he only finished three lengths back of AP. He should relish the extra distance being by TAPIT out of a DEPUTY MINISTER mare, he ran well in a Belmont start last fall (i.e. he doesn't mind the track), he has a very strong Belmont-based rider in Rosario, a great trainer .. what's not to like? I think the "public" will knock him from being a "closer," but really, when you look at his form, that's not really the case. He was four lengths off the pace in the Wood — that's not exactly a deep closer's territory. The Derby doesn't really count for the same reason that we're not calling MATERIALITY a closer heading into this race. He has been working lights out. He's more rested than AP. His best speed figure is higher than AP's. And the Derby performance can be excused due to a) the trip and b) the possibility of a slight bounce after that Wood performance (he went from 107 to 96 in speed fig). On his best day, at least by the numbers, he has been better than AP. And given that he's had a month-long break and AP hasn't, along with all of the above ... I truly think he has a better chance of winning this race.

RECAP:

It feels a little bit silly to put FROSTED ahead of AMERICAN PHAROAH, but my ultimate rationale was this: If I put these two horses side by side in a blind comparison (Horse A vs. Horse B style), who would I take? And the answer is undoubtedly FROSTED. I just think he'll like the distance so much more than AP will, and there are so many fewer questions coming into the race, as well. He's not running his third race in five weeks, etc. 

From a gambling perspective, all I can really advocate for is win bets on FROSTED and MADEFROMLUCKY, and maybe an exacta box with those two and MATERIALITY. In the long-term, I have little doubt that exotics with AP out of the tri are winners, but good luck filling those, and good luck winning. 

Theoretically, my trifecta would be:

FROSTED-MADEFROMLUCKY-MATERIALITY with FROSTED-MADEFROMLUCKY-MATERIALITY with ALL 

That's only an $18 bet, so maybe I will give that a shot. Even throwing AP into the second spot would be $27, so that's also reasonable. I would not put AP in the top spot because I can guarantee plenty of people are playing AP-ALL-ALL for $21 and hoping a few longshots come in for the scraps. You might "win" that bet and still lose money.

To review last year's payouts, the $1 exacta of 9-1 TONALIST over 27-1 COMMISSIONER paid $174, whereas the $0.50 trifecta of TONALIST-COMMISSIONER and 26-1 MEDAL COUNT was $1695.25. Of course, that was an 11-horse field — so the payouts should be more muted no matter what happens this year — but it seems like it's worth the extra bucks to play the trifecta than the exacta. The 10-cent super last year was $380,80 with CALIFORNIA CHROME in fourth and $572.85 with WICKED STRONG (you may remember that they dead heated). 

So, OK, I will play that trifecta I suppose (that's called stream of conciousness bet structuring). Official plays:

WIN: $50 FROSTED

WIN: $50 MADEFROMLUCKY

TRIFECTA: $27 FROSTED-MADEFROMLUCKY-MATERIALITY with AMERICAN PHAROAH-FROSTED-MADEFROMLUCKY-MATERIALITY with ALL 

The 2015 Wothism Preakness Preview

The top three finishers in the Derby meet again in the Preakness.
It only takes one horse (the Derby winner) to win one race
(the Preakness) for a Triple Crown to be on the line in the
Belmont Stakes. Can AMERICAN PHAROAH do it?

"It only takes one horse (the Derby winner) to win one race (the Preakness) for a Triple Crown to be
on the line in the Belmont Stakes."

That's a paraphrased version of a great quote I read within the last week but whose source has now escaped me. And we're just one race away from AMERICAN PHAROAH being the horse with a chance to capture the first Triple Crown since AFFIRMED in 1978.

This year's Preakness field has shaped up to be extraordinary in some — four of the top five finishers from the Derby are running — and disappointing in others — the total field size is just eight, and the fourth- and sixth-place finishers (FROSTED and MATERIALITY, respectively) are not running. That's a shame because I think those two ran the best races of any horse not named AMERICAN PHAROAH and would have been prime upset candidates in this race.

With that said, you can't rationally evaluate the Preakness without taking a look at the Derby. So let's start there. (If you would prefer an audio preview, here's a link to a podcast with myself and noted experts Zach Trexler and Ed Ronsman: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bxd6tcpYiDOha1ZkX2tfalpkdkk/view?usp=sharing)

KENTUCKY DERBY RECAP

"They didn't even run a damn race."

Those were my words in the immediate aftermath of the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby. In retrospect, maybe the pace wasn't *that* slow — 47.34 isn't fast by any means in comparison to previous runnings of the Derby but it's not necessarily crawling when we're talking about going 1 1/4 miles — but the "merry go round" nature of the race certainly supported the notion that the front running horses benefited from the pace. On the other hand, you could argue that the three horses in front that stayed there were clearly the best horses in the race — and the off odds agreed — so there was no real evidence of pace or track bias after all.

Personally, I have to trust my gut and stick with my initial assessment that between the track (I believe every winner on the main track was less than three lengths off the lead at the half-mile pole) and the pace, horses coming from further back were severely disadvantaged. That's not to say that the eventual top-three finishers were necessarily lucky or didn't run good races or anything like that, but they were definitely not hurt by the way the track was playing in the way that some of the others were.

With that said, probably the biggest Derby disappointment was DORTMUND. He got away with those relatively soft fractions and still folded up his tent at the eighth pole. As they hit the second turn after 3/4 in 1:11.29, DORTMUND led FIRING LINE and AMERICAN PHAROAH, with CARPE DIEM fourth and DANZIG MOON fifth (note now that the only changes in finishing order were FROSTED running on late while covering a ton of ground wide in the turn for fourth and DORTMUND and AMERICAN PHAROAH swapping spots). By the time they hit the top of the stretch, the three were about on even terms, with FIRING LINE and AMERICAN PHAROAH definitely going better than DORTMUND.

And then the stretch run was on. DORTMUND never looked like a winner, but stayed on rather well. As has been well-documented by now, AMERICAN PHAROAH had to be whipped 32 times down the stretch, and it just generally seemed like both the horse and jockey were working a lot harder FIRING LINE and his human counterpart. A lot of that is surely to do with jockey style — Gary is just more of a smooth operator than Victor — but it's fair to question if that kind of beating (I don't necessarily mean that derisively, but it really was some serious stick work from Victor) would take more out of AMERICAN PHAROAH than it did FIRING LINE as we head into the Preakness only two weeks later.

FIRING LINE drifted out a bit late as AMERICAN PHAROAH came in just a bit, but even Gary noted that he was doing some acting work as he "steadied" FIRING LINE in deep stretch when he knew he wasn't going by the eventual winner.

After surviving the mad rush early and getting beat around a bit, DANZIG MOON settled pretty nicely and ran the most even race ever. In my eyes, he took fifth almost by default as no other horses were able to close into the pace on that track.

I'll get into some more horse-by-horse specifics below as I detail the chances of the field. But first ...

OVERALL PREAKNESS FEELINGS

This race reeks of the 2012 edition. That's not a bad thing in terms of race quality — the 2012 edition was an absolute thriller (seriously, click here and go watch right now (note: somehow finding an HD version of this race is impossible)), but that makes it a pretty weak betting race. The 2012 Preakness was a rematch of I'LL HAVE ANOTHER and BODEMEISTER, with CREATIVE CAUSE the fifth-place Derby finisher. They ultimately finished in that order 1-2-3 in the Preakness, and it's really tough to see anything else happening in this year's Preakness. DIVINING ROD or DANZIG MOON could maybe fill out the bottom of the trifecta if one of the big three doesn't fire, but any other result seems nearly impossible to fathom. The Preakness almost always plays very true to form — the best horse usually does win (unlike the Derby, which is often won by the horse that gets the best trip). OK, here goes:

WHY BOTHER?

8. BODHISATTVA: He grabbed an easy lead in his last race, a $100k stake at Pimlico, walked through fractions of :49 and 1:13 3/5, and won by 1.5 lengths against weak competition. The last time he raced in graded competition, he went off at odds of 114-1 in the Grade 2 Remsen last November, and ultimately ran fifth, beaten 11 lengths. He may well have improved some since then, but he flattened out when he went 1 1/8 miles two starts back despite getting a nice pace to close into, and there's simply not a lot here to get excited about. He is the hometown hopeful, but there's not much hope to go around here.

7. MR Z: I am tickled by the way this all played out. For the past week or so, or at least for the past few days, D. Wayne Lukas has been adamant that MR Z would be running in the Preakness. Meanwhile, owner Ahmed Zayat seemed exasperated on Twitter, repeatedly saying HE WILL NOT RUN. Suddenly, earlier today (Wednesday, May 13), news broke that MR Z would be sold to Calumet Farm and that he *will* run in the Preakness. The lesson: Never doubt Coach Lukas. MR Z had a miserable Derby trip and actually ran on fairly well in the end to finish 13th of 18 horses. Lukas calls the race a throw out and says he has MR Z as good as he's ever been. Which, you know, is fine ... but I ranked him 19/19 in the Derby, and only put him at No. 7 here in the very, very unlikely case that Lukas is right (someone said "Lukas doesn't kidnap horses for the hell of it, you know") and MR Z uses the speed-favoring Pimlico strip to his advantage and runs back to his Los Alamitos performance from last year when he was nip and tuck with DORTMUND and FIRING LINE to the wire.

6. TALE OF VERVE: The case for him, I suppose, is that he won a race at Keeneland going 1 3/16 miles while closing into a very slow early pace despite being six lengths back. And that late kick was good enough to give him a 114 late pace figure, which is rivaled only by AMERICAN PHAROAH's 109 in the Rebel earlier this year. So what happens if get gets a faster pace to run into? Will he close even more strongly and make up even more ground? No, for three reason: 1. When a race is as slow as TALE OF VERVE's maiden breaking win was (they went the first 3/4 miles in 1:14 2/5), every horse in the race will have a mammoth late pace figure because they all have plenty of energy left. 2. While 114 is impressive no matter the early pace, he won solely because of the competition he faced — he was a 3/5 favorite in a six-horse field that got a race rating of 109 (by comparison, the Derby's race rating was 119). 3. Pimlico is a speed-favoring track. You just don't close successfully from that far back, not against these kinds of horses. So why run him? My guess is that it's because this horse was a $440,000 purchase last April and the owner is hoping against hope that his purchase can be somewhat justified. Good luck, Mr. Fipke.

THE MILDLY LESS HOPELESS

5. DANZIG MOON: I kind of summed up my thoughts on DANZIG MOON earlier, and I will copy and paste them here: "After surviving the mad rush early and getting beat around a bit, DANZIG MOON settled pretty nicely and ran the most even race ever. In my eyes, he took fifth almost by default as no other horses were able to close into the pace on that track." He was never sniffing even DORTMUND, who of course looked weary late as the two others ran by him. Despite the early action in the Derby, he was still more forwardly placed than he had been in any other start sans his maiden win, which by the way is still the only time he crossed the wire first. In this field, he sets up as being further back, and I really have to say that they should have awaited the Belmont, where his completely one-paced style and nice distance pedigree would have played pretty well. At the Preakness, I'll be quite surprised if he runs any better than third.

THE "WISE GUY" CHOICE

4. DIVINING ROD: He's the only horse in the race with anything close to the talent of the Derby runners, plus he's fresh, which puts him clearly ahead of DANZIG MOON. He looked like a real talent in winning the Lexington in dominating fashion, and let's not forget that he only lost the Tampa Bay Derby by a neck. But he got the quintessential perfect trip in the Lexington, and after that Tampa performance, he went on to finish 7.5 lengths back of CARPE DIEM in the Tampa Bay Derby. So you can play both sides here. What I like about him is that he showed the versatility to sit off the pace and inside of horses in the Lexington; even though the trip was perfect, he still was able to settle. The fun scenario for his backers is that the top three go too fast while being pressured by the likes of MR Z and BODHISATTVA (who I honestly doubt is quick enough to put real pressure on, but the connections may deem that suicide mission their best chance to win), and he settles in 2-3 lengths off the pace and has first run on the likes of DANZIG MOON. Even with that said, it's hard to envision him being good enough to win, but I think he'll get some solid support. One interesting subplot here is that Julien Leparoux — who rode DIVINING ROD in the Lexington and DANZIG MOON in the Derby — will stick with DANZIG MOON. Some might read that as Leparoux thinking DANZIG MOON is the superior horse, but I mostly read it as Leparoux sticking with a trainer (Casse) who gives him more business. Additionally, DIVINING ROD gets Castellano aboard, who I think is miles better, anyway.

THE DERBY TRIFECTA

3. FIRING LINE: The case for FIRING LINE is relatively simple in my mind, and it goes something like this: DORTMUND is a tired horse who didn't have an excuse for stopping like he did in the Kentucky Derby. He's "over the top" (to borrow some horse parlance) and needs a break to regain his best form. As I noted earlier, AMERICAN PHAROAH got hit 32 times in the stretch of the Derby — after barely, if ever, getting whipped in previous races — and it's fair to think that might have taken some starch out of him. FIRING LINE, on the other hand, had 40 days of rest before the Derby, and should be the freshest horse of the three. And staying the 1 1/4 miles like he did with that kind of rest between races bodes well for his second race back. Gosh, I have to say — I've almost talked myself into him! And Gary Stevens said he's learned a lot about him in riding him the past three races now ... very interesting. And -- AND -- he also never switched leads down the entire stretch, which some would say that, had he done, he would have won (others would say that it's a sign of a physical problem or extreme fatigue, but I digress). So what's the case against him? Simply that I don't think he's quite as good as the two above him. DORTMUND beat him twice and AMERICAN PHAROAH of course beat him last time. Betting on FIRING LINE to win, in my opinion, is betting that neither of those horses are at their best. And, you know, maybe that's true. But Baffert has no reason to run DORTMUND if he's not 100 percent — why put your chances of a Triple Crown at risk? — and AMERICAN PHAROAH appears no worse for the wear by all accounts. Another subplot here that is in my mind is that Gary Stevens won the Preakness on OXBOW in 2013 by walking the dog on the front end, and FIRING LINE has never been more than a head off the early pace in his last four starts. If DORTMUND doesn't break well or switches tactics in the smaller field, is he on the lead? Is he the one fending off early challenges from the longer shots? Is he the one potentially softening up a rating AMERICAN PHAROAH? The post position for FIRING LINE out at No. 8 certainly helps him as he can make his own race whereas AMERICAN PHAROAH and DORTMUND sort of have to go from down there, but in the end, there are too many questions at what I would guess will be the second choice price.

2. DORTMUND: So what happened? While I ultimately bet FROSTED to win most heavily, DORTMUND was the most likely winner in my mind. and when he got away with the fractions he did, it looked even better. But when FIRING LINE and AMERICAN PHAROAH made their moves, DORTMUND was empty-ish. He couldn't stick with them, but at the same time, he didn't throw in the towel. So did the track carry him home? Usually when you see a frontrunner throw in the towel at the top of the stretch, they throw it in completely and finish further back in the pack. And make no mistake, DORTMUND has run faster in past races and still finished more strongly, no matter which metric you use — his Santa Anita Derby was his best race speed figure wise, when he posted a 106 after fractions of :46 1/5, 1:10 2/5, and 1:35 3/5. Now, to be fair, I wondered aloud in my Derby preview if he might have trouble with the final quarter mile ... and maybe he did. But he was already third by the time they hit the stretch, and this was after fractions of :47 1/5, 1:11 1/5, and 1:36 2/5. Nearly a second slower at all calls, but instead of coming home in 13 seconds like he did in the Santa Anita Derby, Was the rail dead? MUBTAAHIJ and CARPE DIEM both had nice rail trips and backed up in a big way. DORTMUND galloped out past FIRING LINE and AMERICAN PHAROAH, which sort of runs counter to the idea that he ran out of gas, too. And then there's the noise at the Derby, which is surely unlike anything he's ever heard before, and the fact that he doesn't run with ear plugs, but wears them before the race. Also that he needed to get saddled in the tunnel as opposed to a stall. And look — it's easy to look at all of this stuff and say, "It sounds like excuse after excuse, Bob." And it is. The easy thing to do is to toss him. That's why I believe that he'll offer some nice value on a track that will play more to his strengths, and in post No. 2, he might get a sweet rating trip while hanging FIRING LINE wide.

1. AMERICAN PHAROAH: I thought about being cheeky and putting DORTMUND on top again, but that would just be kind of silly at this point. There's no doubt which horse should be the favorite, and in a race that is typically won by the best horse, AMERICAN PHAROAH should win the Preakness. He covered a lot more ground than the horses that ran behind him (29 more feet than FIRING LINE and 69 more feet than DORTMUND), and even if the outside was a better part of the track, that's significant. He also actually put away FIRING LINE late as opposed to just barely holding on; it's hard to watch the race and say that you think FIRING LINE was ever going past him. The post position draw added some intrigue to the race because if he happens to not get off to a great start, he'll have to work his way out to the clear ... but on the other hand, it reminds me very much of the Santa Anita Derby where DORTMUND broke from post No. 1 and ONE LUCKY DANE effectively operated as a force field, floating any other challengers pretty wide and giving DORTMUND the run of the race. I'm not saying that DORTMUND will function only in that capacity here, but he's certainly not going to purposefully shut the door on AMERICAN PHAROAH. What hurts the most is the presence of MR Z in post No. 3. I expect him to be going for the lead, and if he gets off to a better start, we know he has some serious speed, and we know Lukas really wants to run him ... so I don't think he's just laying back, and he could pose some problems for the big two here if he gets in front of them. But at the end of the day, he's just clearly the best horse. He has the speed to go to the lead, and I think he will, and I don't think they'll catch him. If you can get even money, that's a hand over first bet.

WAGERING THOUGHTS

Overall, don't get too cute here. As I mentioned earlier, this is extremely reminiscent of the 2012 running, and I actually hit the superfecta in that race. I'LL HAVE ANOTHER won at odds of 5-2, beating BODEMEISTER at odds of 8-5, CREATIVE CAUSE at odds of 6-1, and ZETTERHOLM at odds of 20-1. I boxed the big three with three others in a superfecta and hoped for some weird things to happen. The cost of the box was $36. The bet returned $42.40.

So yeah, don't get too cute chasing a big payout here, because it's not happening unless things go completely crazy. If, say, BODHISATTVA beats MR Z and TALE OF VERVE fills out the trifecta, yes, that will pay roughly $1 million USD. And maybe such a result is technically an overlay ... but it's the sort of overlay that you could bet a million times and never realize. If you're the sort that plays the lottery (I am not), then boxing up DANZIG MOON-TALE OF VERVE-BODHISSATVA-MR Z in a trifecta for $12 is probably some nice entertainment if you're OK with never seeing that money again. But I wouldn't bother trying to figure out who's going to run 3rd or 4th behind a couple of the big three here — that's what everyone else is doing, and it's not going to pay a thing. Horses like TALE OF VERVE in the third spot will be massive underlays in relation to their actual probability of finishing there.

At the end of the day, I think this is just simply a race where you roll old school and plop down a nice win bet on whichever of the three you think offers the most value. I think one of these three horses wins about 95% of the time, so you need some serious odds on the rest of the field to consider any of them for the top spot. And it's a Triple Crown race, so you get some more "public" money than you do normally, which means that you have people betting simply because they like the name, or the color, etc.

With all of that said, I'll play this one pretty straight. I might play some multi-race wagers heading into the Preakness, but the race itself will be pretty boring. If I can get the below odds or better at post time, I will bet the horse in question:

AMERICAN PHAROAH 1/1
DORTMUND 5/2
FIRING LINE 5/1

What this likely adds up to is simply a bet on DORTMUND, and me nervously watching to see if his last race was a fluke or a sign of true regression. Should be fun!

The 7th Annual Wothism Kentucky Derby (AND OAKS!) Preview

FROSTED is my top pick in the 2015 Kentucky Derby.

This is the most intriguing Kentucky Derby in the history of the Wothism Kentucky Derby Preview.

Granted, that may not be saying all that much — this is only the seventh edition. But the showdown between AMERICAN PHAROAH and DORTMUND is unprecedented in my span as a serious horse racing fan. It truly sets up as an AFFIRMED and ALYDAR type of showdown, but let's not put them in the same breath as those two all-time greats just yet.

Beyond those two, you have CARPE DIEM, a horse with wins in four of his five lifetime starts, INTERNATIONAL STAR, undefeated in three starts at 3, MATERIALITY, undefeated and trying to break the curse of APOLLO in being the last horse to win the Derby with no starts at the age of 2, and the best foreign invader since ARAZI in MUBTAAHIJ.

It's safe to say that I am sufficiently excited.

As always, I have a few notes to get everyone up to speed and in the right mindset before we jump all the way in to the muddy water that is a 20-horse field.

Keep these things in mind

1. These horses are 3-year-olds, meaning they’re not yet completely physically mature in the truest sense of the word. They're capable of big, generally unforeseen improvements from race to race. From a wagering perspective, this generally means that we're more interested in what a horse might be capable of than what he has already accomplished.
2. These 3-year-olds are running 10 furlongs for the first time in their lives — the longest any of them has run to date is 9 furlongs, and some have even run less than that. While this may not seem like a huge difference, one furlong is 660 feet. Ergo, an extra furlong is equivalent to an extra 2+ football fields. This extra furlong is generally considered “the championship furlong” — good horses can win at 9 furlongs, but only “true champions” can win at 10.
3. These 3-year-olds running 10 furlongs for the first time ever are also facing the best horses they have ever faced, in front of a much larger crowd than they have ever seen. Many of these horses have run against a few of the others, but this a packed 20-horse field full of only the best of the best (fields typically don’t exceed 14 horses in a single race). And the incredible size of the crowd can not be ignored: These are horses, flesh and blood … not machines. Temperament matters. For instance, PALACE MALICE strapped on some blinkers for the Derby in 2013 and was ultimately so scared of the noise without being able to see it in his newly limited field of vision that he sprinted off to some of the fastest fractions ever in the Derby! And this was from a generally calm horse that had never needed the lead.

All of which is to say that there are a lot of unknowns in this race; even horses who went on to clearly be the best of their generation have lost the Derby due to any combination of the above.

The importance of pace

The Derby pace is always fast. It's the way horses are bred, it's the way brilliant young horses run, and with a horse that has natural speed in a 20-horse field, it's a lot safer as a trainer or owner to tell your jockey to get to the front end and see how far he can take them than to take your chances with traffic.

It's not impossible to win on the lead, but it will take an extremely special horse to do it. And, for a change, there are a few of those that actually may be capable of pulling it off.

With that said, here's where I expect the horses to fall into place as they settle into stride on the backstretch:

On/very near the lead: DORTMUND, AMERICAN PHAROAH, MATERIALITY, FIRING LINE, OCHO OCHO OCHO, MR. Z

Second flight behind the leaders: CARPE DIEM, UPSTART, BOLO, STANFORD, MUBTAAHIJ, ITSAKNOCKOUT

Third flight behind the leaders: FROSTED, TENCENDUR, EL KABEIR, WAR STORY, DANZIG MOON

At the rear: INTERNATIONAL STAR, FAR RIGHT, KEEN ICE

What I see as being different about this year's Derby is that there are more horses at either extreme than in recent memory. AMERICAN PHAROAH did "rate" in the Arkansas Derby, but he was still within a length of the lead ... he's not suddenly going to be in behind the leaders unless things go wrong. So we've got five horses who I think want to either be on the lead or within a literal length of it, and then we've got three absolutely stone cold closers.

I felt the biggest "losers" in the post position draw were, in order: 1. MATERIALITY, 2. CARPE DIEM, 3. AMERICAN PHAROAH, 4. UPSTART.

MATERIALITY *has* to go from the 3rd post; he has no choice unless they're really going to ask him to sit in a huge pack of horses when he's never done that even in a small pack before. I think that goose gets cooked early. CARPE DIEM has a tough choice breaking from post two -- does he go to avoid traffic, or does he conserve energy and hope they go faster than anyone can handle up front. AMERICAN PHAROAH is sort of like MATERIALITY with a little bit more of an option in that he doesn't *have* to go early and could still get a clean, albeit wide, trip ... but there's the risk of being extremely wide on that first turn, which could come back to haunt him late. UPSTART's post may not be horrible for him as he shouldn't get slammed too hard from either side and will have some options in terms of where he sits in the pack, but obviously he'll have to cover some additional ground from way out there.

With all of that said ... here's my overview of the Derby field. The horses are listed in reverse order of win probability and placed into tiers, because why not:

The "I bet that owner's suite is pretty nice" (horses from owners who got Derby fever) tier:

19. MR. Z (Post position #17, 66/1 offshore odds): This has to be a purely vanity play from the Zayat family, right? If this horse was named anything but MR. Z in a nod to their last name, he wouldn't be running, right? This horse has been running steadily since at least last August (12 starts pre-Derby is amazing these days), and gosh, maybe he deserves a break. He has just one win in 12 lifetime starts and likes to be forwardly placed in a field where that's not really preferred at all. The less logical among us might look back to December when he ran a narrowly beaten third to DORTMUND and FIRING LINE. But since then he has been beaten by AMERICAN PHAROAH, FAR RIGHT, INTERNATIONAL STAR, WAR STORY and STANFORD. All in all, if you decide it's a good idea to bet this horse, I want what you're on.

18. OCHO OCHO OCHO (Post position #1, 60/1 offshore odds): If you draw a line through his San Felipe in which he had a miserable trip, this seems like a somewhat enticing candidate based on speed figures alone. The problem here is that I think his speed is his best asset, and a) using it here would be suicide, so b) his trainer would like to see him laying off the pace. Which is, you know, what resulted in the worst race he has ever run. I feel like the best case scenario for OCHO OCHO OCHO is something like OXBOW's run in 2013 — staying on for a nice check in sixth place or so. But this horse winning or hitting the board would be a real shocker. I don't know that post #1 actually hinders him, however; his connections were talking about taking him a bit off the pace, which I thought was silly, so now that he's back in the 1 hole he just has to go and see what happens.

The "longshot late-running exotic players" tier:

17. WAR STORY (Post position #16, 50/1 offshore odds): I don't think he'll be too interested in a mile and a quarter, and I just generally feel like if he can't beat INTERNATIONAL STAR in races of all different types (fast/slow, fast/fast, slow/slow), then why should the Derby be any different? His last three works have been slow, too, and that seems weird to me given that he has fired bullets in the past. I don't need to see bullets, but in the absence of other mitigating factors, I want to see a horse running 12-second furlongs, more or less. If he's not doing that going four or five furlongs, he's not doing that going 10 furlongs, and he's not going to have the stamina he needs. Could this one clunk up late? Of course it's possible, but I think he'll run 14th or so.

16. FAR RIGHT (Post position #20, 50/1 offshore odds): He barely beat MR. Z on three occasions, and we know where that one landed. This one gets a mild upgrade due to the Mike Smith factor and the running style — he'll come from somewhere late, but if he couldn't get any closer to AMERICAN PHAROAH after fractions of :45 2/5 and 1:10 2/5 in the Arkansas Derby, it's tough to see him playing a major factor here.

15. KEEN ICE (Post position #14, 55/1 offshore odds): He almost belongs in the "nice owner's suite" tier, but then I thought to myself ... this is actually probably the best race for KEEN ICE to run in. He probably doesn't have the speed to win against any sort of decent competition at a mile or under. His one lifetime win came at Churchill Downs last September. His best Derby prep was the Risen Star, where they set a nice pace up front and he rallied strongly to get within three lengths of INTERNATIONAL STAR. So there's some legitimate hope here! What bothered me was his April 25 workout in 1:01 3/5. The time is slower than I'd like, but that's not a deal breaker on its own ... it's the fact that he went :11 4/5, :24, :36, :48 3/5, 1:01 3/5. So he came home in :13, which you would typically say means he got tired. So he doesn't have great speed and his stamina is now in question ... so I'd say you can probably make better bets than KEEN ICE.

The "severely pace compromised" tier:

15. STANFORD (Post position #11, 70/1 offshore odds): He destroyed workmate MADEFROMLUCKY so badly that the latter is now out of the race. That's something, although MADEFROMLUCKY was also supposedly injured in some way, so who knows. This one is a little bit hard to figure in that he did lay off the pace successfully in his first start of the year going six furlongs, but that was at the 112 class level and most likely due to getting bumped at the start. He was actually favored over MATERIALITY two starts back but was of course well-beaten, and then he got run down by INTERNATIONAL STAR after setting a tepid 3/4 fraction in 1:13 1/5. If he couldn't hold on after that in his third start off the layoff, then I don't really see why you would think he can go faster in the Derby and win, or come from off the pace. There are three sons of MALIBU MOON in this race, though ... smells like an overbet trifecta to me. (SCRATCHED)

14. FIRING LINE (Post position #10, 16/1 offshore odds): Up to this point, I haven't really been particularly bold with any of these rankings — I think any ranking of the Derby horses would be pretty similar to mine so far. But I expect for the informed reader to perk up now and say, "HOW DARE YOU PUT FIRING LINE AT #14?!?" He has been within a head of DORTMUND twice now, and destroyed an inferior field at Sunland by 14 lengths. Here's the deal: I don't think FIRING LINE wants any part of 1 1/4 miles. He was a winner turning for home in the Robert B. Lewis. He had more or less put DORTMUND away and was in front by a full length. Go watch the race. DORTMUND is being ridden along and Gary Stevens is sitting chilly on FIRING LINE. This was a 1 1/16 mile race and FIRING LINE has it won. He floats a bit wide and DORTMUND comes a little bit closer again but FIRING LINE re-rallies and it should be over. And then ... it's not. FIRING LINE shortens stride a bit as DORTMUND keeps reaching out. FIRING LINE looked tired to me. The Sunland Derby simply doesn't count because he was on such an easy lead — horses that get away like that do often post the best speed figures of their career, and it's clear he was much classier. The question is where he'll sit. The PPs are somewhat misleading in that he was actually 2-3 lengths back on the first turn of the Robert Lewis, so he's not the stone cold frontrunner he necessarily looks like, but you also know that he's not going to be mid-pack. This is where it starts to get tough, but you have to make some tough decisions in such a competitive race ... and with his limited distance pedigree, I feel pretty comfortable leaving him out of my wagers. 

13. MATERIALITY (Post position #3, 12/1 offshore odds): Putting an undefeated horse who just ran a 105 Brisnet speed figure at #13 tells you all you need to know about the depth and quality of this Derby field. There's no doubt that Gulfstream was playing pretty weird, but he went 3/4 in 1:12 2/5 and then ran a 26+ second quarter mile to get a mile in 1:38.57 and came home in just under an eternal 14 seconds to cover 1 1/8 miles in 1:52 2/5. They say time only matters in jail, and there's no doubt that Gulfstream must have been ridiculous tiring because he and UPSTART ran away from the rest of the field, but he was also leg weary and bumped UPSTART late before putting him away. There's also the whole curse of APOLLO thing with MATERIALITY never running at age 2, and Pletcher's well-documented struggles with this kind of horse in the Derby. He's a typical Pletcher Derby disappointment — great speed figures as a horse that likes the lead but folds up his tent come the Derby. GEMOLOGIST comes to mind here. Post position #3 complicates things for him, as well; any chance of him sitting off the pace kind of went out the window there. He, like OCHO OCHO to his inside, pretty much has to go. And a lightly raced horse being inside is not a recipe for success in my eyes.

The "if they go fast enough up front ... " tier

12. TENCENDUR (Post position #4, 50/1 offshore odds): Before the Wood, he probably belonged in the "exotics-only" tier, but he showed enough speed there that he could be the type of horse that's peaking at the right time. There's no doubt that he'll be further back than he was in the Wood, where he he was only a half-length back at the second call on a slowly-playing track but with a fast pace (3/4 in 1:13 2/5 was actually considered +5 by the Bris race shape figures), so he figures to get first run on some of the deeper closers. His problem is probably pedigree at the end of the day — I'm not betting against him on that alone, but he was all-out as FROSTED kind of leisurely went by in the stretch. Given the huge step forward he took there, as well, I would kind of expect him to fall back to Earth a little bit ... the old "bounce." The bullets he has been working look nice on paper, but he did the same thing before a non-threatening fifth in the Withers. But maybe that was due to the off track? Ultimately he feels like a mid-pack runner who will finish mid-pack, but if things fall apart just the right way and he runs big, you couldn't say you were entirely surprised.

11. INTERNATIONAL STAR (Post position #12, 25/1 offshore odds): It's difficult to put the top horse in the points standings all the way down here, but he just doesn't inspire much in me. After failing to win any races on dirt in six starts at two (two of which actually were on dirt), he has gone 3-for-3 in 2015, sweeping the Le Comte, the Risen Star and the Lousiana Derby. In the Le Comte and the Risen Star, he got generally perfect setups and perfect trips. A total throwout based on those races. The Louisiana Derby, however, was a different story. STANFORD got loose on the lead and was able to get three quarters in 1:13 1/5 ... but INTERNATIONAL STAR was still able to run him down. He came home in the neighborhood of :36 there, which is pretty darn impressive. He also has shown he has moxie in darting through some tight holes, which is what you need to show in the Derby. I'm talking myself into this one a bit and would say he has to be considered for exotics, but I still just question the pedigree and overall quality enough to save my money on a win bet here. 

11. EL KABEIR (Post position #7, 40/1 offshore odds): This is the horse that I've done the biggest 180 on through the course of the Derby prep season, and it's simply because he has shown, perhaps accidentally, that he can come from the back of the pack. He rallied nicely into a quick pace to win the Gotham, and then was coming late in the Wood. He was mostly passing tired horses and really didn't make up any ground on FROSTED, but it's hard to fault him too much for that — the owners put much of the blame on the jockey, in fact, and opted to give the mount to Calvin Borel. For the most part, I think Borel is overrated and depresses the odds of the horses he rides ... but I just have the feeling that he fits EL KABEIR like a glove. And, in fact, he rode him to a win at Churchill Downs last November! I don't think I would take less than 25-1 here, and who knows where he ends up with Borel aboard ... but he's a tempting thought if they go fast enough up front. I had him at the top of this list but given his training schedule this week (he really hasn't done any training) and rumors of a possible scratch; even if he does run, I don't really think putting money behind on him is a great idea at this point. (SCRATCHED)

10. FRAMMENTO (Post position #20, 50/1 offshore odds): As far as late additions go, this is a pretty interesting one. Another pure closer, he closed to finish fourth in the Blue Grass after a slow early pace, and prior to that he closed stoutly in the Fountain of Youth on an incredibly tiring track. He probably belongs in the "exotics" category based on what he's done, but Nick Zito is incredibly high on him, and that's not something to be sniffed at. It is interesting, however, that Zito calls him a true stayer when the pedigree by itself wouldn't necessarily indicate that to me, at least from FRAMMENTO's direct parents. With that said, he's got plenty of stamina in his pedigree, and he'll be coming late. He's a must-use in the bottom of exotics and I may even put a few bucks on him to win.

9. DANZIG MOON (Post position #5, 50/1 offshore odds): I've heard a lot about how great this horse is looking from multiple sources, which makes him very similar to INTENSE HOLIDAY from last year, a horse with somewhat middling results that got everyone's pick based on his fantastic appearance in the weeks leading up to the Derby. He gave CARPE DIEM backers a few anxious moments in the Blue Grass, but he ultimately could get no closer than three lengths. He should absolutely relish the distance, and the faster pace gives plenty of reason for hope. But he had a fast pace to close into in the Tampa Bay Derby and actually lost four lengths in the stretch. A little bit hard to reconcile what happened there with success in the Derby. Another reason for hope is that this is somewhat of a turf-y pedigree, and Churchill has played well for turf horses in the past. I'm kind of talking myself into this one. He's a definite exotics player and, assuming INTERNATIONAL STAR gets the bulk of the play as the closer, could be juicy enough to justify a win bet.

8. ITSAKNOCKOUT (Post position #13, 50/1 offshore odds): If you throw out his Florida Derby — which I think you have to given that a) he didn't get 18 lengths worse from the Fountain of Youth, which is how much further behind UPSTART he was and b) he just worked beautifully eye-to-eye with MATERIALITY, who was 21 lengths ahead of him in that race — then you have a horse who has successfully sat off the pace (defined here as more than two lengths off the lead at the second call) and ran a triple digit Bris speed figure to win a race, which makes him one of just two horses to do so as a 3-year-old (FROSTED was the other). He didn't beat UPSTART in the Fountain of Youth, but he very well may have without the interference, and I think he'll be much more overlooked. The pedigree is a bit of a mixed bag but he is a son of Belmont winner LEMON DROP KID, so 1 1/4 should be plenty doable. He reminds me of SUPER SAVER, Pletcher's lone Derby winner that ran third in the Tampa Bay Derby and second in the Arkansas Derby before winning the Kentucky Derby. ITSAKNOCKOUT ran three times before finishing fourth in the Florida Derby and now heads to Louisville. I do like this horse, but realistically, he has to move forward in a big way to come home. If he gets the right trip, he could shock as a forgotten sort of horse.

The "talented question marks" tier:

7. MUBTAAHIJ (Post position #6, 12/1 offshore odds): Seriously ... who knows? If you watch the UAE Derby from start to finish, you'll hear the track announcer say he's enjoying "the run of the race" as they hit the far turn — he's perfectly positioned behind four frontrunners across the track, and the two in front of him keep going while the two outside stop, and so he's able to ease out as they straighten away for home beautifully. I think most horses in this Derby would have won that race with that kind of trip ... but would they have won it the way that MUBTAAHIJ did when he absolutely exploded and was ahead by eight lengths before you could pronounce his name? We can tell that he's bred for distance like no other horse in this race and that he has won twice at 1 3/16, but those races were run in 1:58 1/5 and 1:59. Again, time only matters in jail, but the Preakness at 1 3/16 has been won in a time worse than 1:57 only *ONCE* since 1961 (OXBOW in 2013). And they actually were going pretty fast early in the UAE Derby, so it wasn't necessarily a slow early pace that resulted in the slow time. On the other hand, his workout Arlington was allegedly "missed" by official clockers, but people on hand had him coming home his final two furlongs in :23 flat despite not switching leads. I think he'll be wildly overbet with all of this said, but honestly ... WHO KNOWS. Drawing the #6 post is a perfect post for him, and actually if he does stay at the (what I deem to be ridiculous) morning line of 20/1, I'd be fairly interested after all.

6. UPSTART (Post position #19, 15/1 offshore odds): Derby trivia: Which horse has four triple-digit speed figures yet is being mostly ignored? Yep, it's UPSTART. He has never run worse than third, and crossed the wire first twice in his three preps (debatably should have been placed first in all there, but as it was he officially finished first in one and second in the other two). I think the reason he's being overlooked is because he looked so weary late, and when you look at his finishes compared to MUBTAAHIJ, it's just a completely different look. Even throwing that out, you would logically say that 1 1/4 miles may not be his bread and butter — he is the grandson of AP Indy, but his sire, Flatter, has been more of a speed influence. So there's a huge question mark here because he's clearly capable of a performance that could beat just about any of these even on their best days (see the Holy Bull), but there's also all of these questions if you should believe your eyes or the speed figures. Nobody seems to be talking about him despite a couple of bullets down at Prairie Meadows, though, which I do like — I think there's some definite value here here if you're willing to accept the possibility that he comes up empty in the stretch. Post position 19 certainly complicates things for him a bit, but it also feels like perhaps a blessing in disguise. If you do accept that he's one of the fastest horses here and able to make his own trip, he's certainly able to do that from out there; he can go forward if he breaks well, or he can take back if he doesn't.

5. BOLO (Post position #9, 45/1 offshore odds): I swapped him with UPSTART after reading reports on how well he's getting over the ground at Churchill, which has historically been kind to turf horses (ANIMAL KINGDOM comes to mind recently). If he hadn't been steadied in the San Felipe, I think he could have gotten to DORTMUND. If he hadn't been seriously hung wide in both turns in the Santa Anita Derby, he could have maybe gotten to DORTMUND. And he was working incredibly well at Santa Anita, so if he's getting over the ground even better at Churchill ... there could be something here. His damside pedigree is a little bit lacking in distance to my eye, but Steve Haskin says he'll relish it, and I'll take his opinion over mine. He should sit a nice midpack trip and if he gets a clean one, I think he could offer fantastic value at potentially large odds.

4. FROSTED (Post position #15, 15/1 offshore odds): It doesn't get much better than his Wood Memorial win. DORTMUND and AMERICAN PHAROAH are freaky good, and MATERIALITY is undefeated, and other horses have a lot of great qualities ... but nobody ran a race like FROSTED in the Wood. It was a nice, clean trip, and he didn't beat any particularly great competition, but he was wide in both turns and still just rollllled in the stretch without any obvious asking from Joel Rosario. TENCENDUR is getting knifed like crazy and Rosario looks like he's winding up in a workout until very late in the stretch when he starts asking a bit, but even then, I don't think he ever feels the whip. He also ran a huge 3/4 of a race in the Fountain of Youth before apparently running into some breathing problems and floundering in the stretch. If you trust that the throat surgery and smaller blinkers and whatever the heck else they did to him simply just worked, then he would belong in the next tier of obvious favorites. But did he really solve the issues, or was he just facing a substandard field? Will he bounce off that huge effort, or is he freaky along the lines of AMERICAN PHAROAH with these things fixed? I think he will offer some value and likely end up as my "official" play. He drew absolutely perfectly in post 15, which affords him some extra space to his inside since he's the first stall in the auxiliary gate.

The "obvious favorites" tier:

3. AMERICAN PHAROAH (Post position #18, 1.85/1 offshore odds): Do you hear that? It's another pundit or jockey or trainer or groom or your wife's sister's friend praising AMERICAN PHAROAH. The buzz around this horse is insane. He might be the second-coming of SECRETARIAT ... or maybe we just live in the year 2015 where Twitter has taken over and become a sort of resonance board where people just generally get too excited about everything and turn everything into a huge deal. Don't get me wrong — this horse looks tremendous in everything he does. He has done nothing wrong in his races. But allow me to deconstruct this fable with one sentence: This horse is the second-coming of 2011 2-year-old champion HANSEN. Both were brilliantly precocious speed horses, and both were the 2-year-old champions of their class. Both had huge question marks hanging over their heads in regard to being able to rate, and both proved they could in a big Derby prep (HANSEN in the Gotham, AMERICAN PHAROAH in the Arkansas Derby). Both had question marks about the competition they beat. The big difference, of course, is that AMERICAN PHAROAH won his final prep in a huge way, whereas HANSEN lost the Blue Grass after setting a blistering early pace. Ultimately, I see these horses as very similar. I loved HANSEN in 2012 leading up to the race, and then he got heated up pre-race and choked by the jockey before not firing in the lane and running, and now I'm rambling because I'm still upset that I was fooled by him. NEVER AGAIN.  The fact is that AMERICAN PHAROAH very likely is better than HANSEN, but I just think AMERICAN PHAROAH hasn't had to deal with anything but perfect trips and slow paces. What happens when 20 horses are there and they're flying up front? Our eyes lie to us all the time. But the third quarter mile fractions — which to me tell a huge story in the outcome of route races — of his two three-year-old races have been as follows: :25 3/5 and :24 3/5. That's him taking a break on the lead in all of those races. Compare that to DORTMUND who has gone :23 4/5, :24 2/5, and :24 1/5. And everyone wants to bet on the slower horse who has proven less because he looks good when he does it and his trainer has been talking him up? Especially at a short price, no thanks. And does he really want to go 1 1/4 miles? His damside pedigree doesn't exactly give me the best feelings about that, either. Our eyes lie to us all the time. I will take a strong stance against AMERICAN PHAROAH and either be blown away by greatness or blown away with money in my pocket. It's a no-lose scenario. And being marooned out in post #18 seems less ideal to me than some folks are saying. He's a front-running horse who wants to be up near the lead, and I actually would say from out there they are more likely to just outright send him from out there, lest he be caught 5-6-7-wide into that first turn (because there are plenty of horses inside him that probably want to go early).

2. CARPE DIEM (Post position #2, 8/1 offshore odds): This is a horse who is just professional when it comes to racing. He'll likely be the third choice, but you could make a strong argument that he should actually be the favorite if you discount more truly early speed horses. After being purchased for $1.6 million last March, he has almost earned all of that back in five lifetime starts, winning four of them and running second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall when getting a wide trip. With that said, I'm not convinced he's the mid-pack horse people want to label him as. When you look at the past performances, this horse has been within a half-length of the lead at the second call in all but one of his races. I don't think he'll be that close in the Derby, and then what? And while he's a complete professional in the race in that he ran well even in the BC Juvenile despite a bad start and a wide trip, he has been tough pre-race and prone to getting washy and not wanting to go into the gate. The distance should absolutely not be an issue, however, and while we're playing the 2012 Derby comparison game, he does remind me a bit of I'LL HAVE ANOTHER in that he won two major preps heading into the race but still will be overlooked. And as a final feather in his cap, he came home strongly in :35 3/5 in his last work. I don't think he'll offer a ton of value here, especially now that he's coming out of post #2. As discussed earlier, he has actually shown good speed in many of his races, so does Pletcher think about sending him, too? Or does he want MATERIALITY to get that run to the rail, forcing CARPE DIEM take back a bit more?

1. DORTMUND (2.5/1 offshore odds): What this horse has done in winning his three preps this year has been incredible. He has run against good horses and he has responded with big wins. He battled tooth and nail with FIRING LINE in the Robert B. Lewis, getting passed but responding in the lane to prevail as that pair finished 21 1/2 lengths ahead of the next finisher. His San Felipe was probably the least impressive as he had to dig in to hold off PROSPECT PARK and BOLO after slow fractions, but the important thing is that he did while coming home the final three furlongs in just a shade over 30 seconds and was a stellar overall time of 1:41 3/5. And finally, he won the Santa Anita Derby after laying down six furlongs in 1:10 2/5. To that end and to round out the 2012 Kentucky Derby comparison game, DORTMUND very much reminds me of BODEMEISTER in that I think they're both just kind of freaks. It's almost as if there's a contract that you have to mention DORTMUND's size when you write about him, and so I'll do so here yet again: It's a pleasure to watch this near-Clydesdale run. Did he briefly waver a bit in the stretch of his last two races? Yes. Might he have trouble with the final quarter mile? Yes. Does his size leave him more vulnerable to traffic trouble if he doesn't break well enough? Yes. Is he potentially subject to a pace duel with any random horse that decides going to the front is worth a shot? Yes! I do think the latter concern is the biggest once to me — I think he has to go to the front and take them as far as he can, but he may be able to work out a CALIFORNIA CHROME-type trip ... not necessarily right on top of the lead, but get into the clear and have space to work with all the way around. I think Baffert's ideal world, though, is for DORTMUND to be leading and AMERICAN PHAROAH sitting off his flank as they hit the far turn, and from there it's just a question of who's more battle-tested and if they can get the distance. The last tidbit I'll add here is that his last work was seemingly slow at 1:13 3/5 ... until you consider that a few clockers had him coming home in a six furlong work in :22 2/5! That's freaky. He drew a nice post whereas the other main competitors didn't; even if he doesn't get away well and go to the lead, he won't get slammed around. I truly think he should be favored here.

THE PICKS

OK, if you're still with me after all of that, two things: 1. Thank you. 2. Don't you have something else to do?

Ultimately, while I do like DORTMUND, I think he'll be overbet as he's too prone to pace pressures and traffic trouble to take a short price. 

CARPE DIEM does fit well, but he's stuck in that #2 post, and Lord only knows what kind of trip he'll be able to work out from there. If I can get 10-1 on him, I'll bet it, but otherwise I will pass.

I ultimately think FROSTED and UPSTART are the two horses that have the right kind of running style to win and will be somewhat overlooked in the wagering, although I have seen some sharp bettors giving some attention to each. As a longer shot, BOLO offers a ton of value, as well. I think these three are capable of running the same kind of race as CARPE DIEM at what figures to be 2-3-4-5x the price. 

ITSAKNOCKOUT might be worth the smallest of bets, but there has been a mixed opinion on him throughout the week, and he almost didn't run ... so I've cooled on him a bit. 

KEEN ICE and DANZIG MOON are the late-running horses that interest me most. They should stay on and could be eligible for a piece. FRAMMENTO also belongs in the mix. 

With all of that said, here are the *official* Wothism plays:

To win/place: FROSTED = $50

To win/place: UPSTART = $30

To win/place: BOLO = $20

Trifecta: DORTMUND, BOLO, FROSTED, AMERICAN PHAROAH, UPSTART with CARPE DIEM, DORTMUND, BOLO, FROSTED, AMERICAN PHAROAH, UPSTART with CARPE DIEM, DANZIG MOON, DORTMUND, BOLO, ITSAKNOCKOUT, KEEN ICE, FROSTED, AMERICAN PHAROAH, UPSTART, FRAMMENTO = $100

I do somewhat want to toss AMERICAN PHAROAH entirely, but there's absolutely a chance that we're dealing with a horse that is simply by far the best of his generation. And if DORTMUND somehow gets out there without much pace pressure, he's obviously dangerous and the most likely winner in my eyes. I'd rather risk a little bit more than kick myself after the fact for missing out on a huge payday (and unless it goes AP-DORTMUND-CARPE, it will be a huge payday).

BONUS: KENTUCKY OAKS PREVIEW

First off, the Oaks card is fantastic ... even more so than usual. Graded stakes action starts at 1:26 Eastern with Race 6 and runs through Race 11, the Oaks, at 5:49 Eastern. That's a nice Friday afternoon to get the weekend started right. 

With that said, the Oaks is the main attraction, and STELLAR WIND is the 7/2 morning line favorite off of a few dominating performances in the Santa Anita Oaks and San Ysabel. She can seemingly make her own race, having won in a few different ways.

CONDO COMMANDO and I'M A CHATTERBOX are fairly easy to dismiss because I think the odds are high that they, or others here without hope to begin with, will run each other into the ground at 1 1/8 miles. CONDO COMMANDO got a dream run with only PUCA to deal with in the Gazelle, and PUCA is not a front-running horse at heart. 

INCLUDE BETTY is an interesting longshot as she rallied into a slow pace from 13 lengths back at the start to win the Fantasy at Oaklawn. With a faster pace up front, she may be even better. OCEANWAVE came out of the same race and while she wasn't as far back, dealt with traffic issues before closing and missing by a neck. Without knowing exactly what happened that day at Oaklawn, I might hazard a guess that the track was favoring closers.

BIRDATTHEWIRE looks a lot like STELLAR WIND to me ... very hard to go against. Can make her own race and has overcome trouble to win, as well.

Finally, we come to PUCA, who I think will offer value when she can lay off of a strong pace (as opposed to needing to make it against CONDO COMMANDO last time). She hasn't really gotten much of a clean trip or a great setup in any race she's run (minus her smashing 16-length maiden win), and I think she very well may be just as good as the top pair if she gets the trip.

So there's your super or tri box: BIRDATTHEWIRE, STELLAR WIND, PUCA, INCLUDE BETTY and OCEANWAVE.

To win, I'll try to beat the two favorites with the longer shots PUCA, INCLUDE BETTY and OCEANWAVE — small plays, no doubt, but I think there's enough value there to warrant it.

THE BEST POOL EVER 2015

THE BEST MARCH MADNESS POOL EVER is back.

Here's a quick overview of the rules:

1. Each person gets a budget of $100 each week of the tournament (before the second/third rounds, before the Sweet 16/Elite 8, and before the Final 4/Championship).

2. Each person will select as many teams as they desire as long as said teams can fit in their budget.

3. Teams will earn points as follows:

Second round win = 1 point
Third round win = 3 points
Sweet 16 win = 2 points
Elite 8 win= 6 points
Final 4 win = 3 points
Championship win = 9 points

If you're wondering why the scoring works this way, it's because A) It's harder to pick the second game of the weekend than it is the first, B) It's harder to pick games later in the tournament, C) You need more points when there are less games to more properly even the scoring out (even though it's not necessarily completely even, it's a bit more distributed this way).

4. The most points at the end of the tournament wins. The winner will take 60% of the pot, second will take 30%, and third will take 10%.

5. The entry fee will be $30.

So, without further ado, here is the price list for week 1 (you'll note that I just guessed at play-in game winners; you only get the team I guessed below ... so you probably want to avoid those teams unless you feel super confident in BYU because, you know, Mormons):

KENTUCKY	46
WISCONSIN	43
DUKE	41
VILLANOVA	40
VIRGINIA	39
ARIZONA	36
GONZAGA	36
OKLAHOMA	36
NORTH CAROLINA	35
IOWA ST.	33
UTAH	33
LOUISVILLE	32
KANSAS	32
BAYLOR	29
NOTRE DAME	23
WEST VIRGINIA	23
MARYLAND	16
NORTHERN IOWA	15
GEORGETOWN	15
WICHITA ST.	14
TEXAS	13
BUTLER	13
XAVIER	13
ARKANSAS	13
OHIO ST.	11
PROVIDENCE	10
SMU	10
IOWA	9
MICHIGAN ST.	8
BUFFALO	6
UCLA	6
NORTH CAROLINA ST.	6
BYU	6
SAN DIEGO ST.	6
DAVIDSON	5
OKLAHOMA ST.	5
VALPARAISO	4
INDIANA	4
DAYTON	4
ST. JOHN'S	3
LSU	3
VCU	3
GEORGIA	2
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN	2
PURDUE	2
OREGON	2
GEORGIA ST.	2
UC IRVINE	2
CINCINNATI	2
HARVARD	2
WYOMING	1
WOFFORD	1
NEW MEXICO ST.	1
UAB	1
NORTHEASTERN	1
EASTERN WASHINGTON	1
ALBANY	1
NORTH FLORIDA	1
COASTAL CAROLINA	1
NORTH DAKOTA ST.	1
LAFAYETTE	1
BELMONT	1
MANHATTAN	1
TEXAS SOUTHERN	1

Again, you can construct a squad of however many teams you would like AS LONG AS YOU STAY AT OR UNDER $100. Do you want to take a few near sure-things (like Kentucky and Duke, maybe not Wisconsin) and a few longer shots, or do you take a ton of longshots? Or try for some happy medium?

Whatever you do, remember that even if your teams flame out this week, you'll be supplied with new team prices next week and should still have a chance to win regardless of what happened (last year, everyone was still in contention after the first weekend and only one of 11 people was eliminated entirely heading into the Final Four).

You can have as many entries as you want. Feel free to share with friends.

If you want to be in, send me an email at bobwothe@gmail.com titled 2015 NCAA POOL WEEK 1 TEAMS with your teams and $30 via PayPal (bobwothe@gmail.com) or check (2190 Willow Hill Dr., Neenah, WI 54956) by Wednesday, 3/18, at 10 p.m. CST. If you haven't gotten me the money or made other arrangements by then, your entry will not count, PERIOD.

Last thing: In order to remove any issues with me knowing other people's picks before giving my own, I will send my picks to a new email account each week before 11:59 p.m. CST Monday of that week. You will then need to get your picks to me by 11:59 p.m. CST Tuesday of that week. Then, Wednesday night/Thursday morning of each week, I will send out an email with a spreadsheet containing everyone's picks AS WELL AS the login credentials to the email account that I create. This will provide a timestamped version of my picks so that you can rest assured that I am not cheating.

As for this first week, I have already sent my entry on to this new email address, so you may send in your entries whenever you wish.

Let me know if you have any questions. Again, feel free to share this with others!