PACE OUTLOOK: In a field this large, the pace will almost always be quick. Races down the hill are almost always quick, too. There will be no free lunch here.
GENERAL OUTLOOK: This thing is wide open. 9-2 is the lowest price on the morning line, and at first blush, it seems like literally any horse in the field has a good shot. The conventional wisdom is that horses with previous experience down the hill have a big advantage, and I can't discount that, but I think that's so well-known that I would like to find a horse without that experience.
GENERAL OUTLOOK: This thing is wide open. 9-2 is the lowest price on the morning line, and at first blush, it seems like literally any horse in the field has a good shot. The conventional wisdom is that horses with previous experience down the hill have a big advantage, and I can't discount that, but I think that's so well-known that I would like to find a horse without that experience.
1. Reneesgotzip (Moldonado/Miller) 5-1: Has been second and third in the past two editions of this race. There's no real reason to think she can't win without MIZDIRECTION to deal with this year.
2. Silentio (Espinoza/G. Madnella) 8-1: Shortens up from mostly mile events for this one, and I have to wonder if he'll get too far back early. He'll be coming late but I think he'll have too much work to do.
3. Sweet Swap (Nakatani/Sadler) 12-1: Is a veteran down the hill coming in off of a Grade 3 win. Definitely a cut below on class here, however.
4. Tightend Touchdown (Castellano/Servis) 8-1: Second last year, but he hasn't shown the same early zip in his races this year. I'll pass.
5. Ambitious Brew (Smith/M. Jones) 12-1: I've heard this one bandied about a bit in this spot, but he doesn't seem too special to me. The Eddie D was a clear cut below the competition here, and he couldn't close the deal in that one.
6. Bobby's Kitten (Rosario/C. Brown) 10-1: This seems like the ideal race for him. He ran well in his last at Woodbine against older, and Brown is tough off the layoff. I like him here.
7. Marchman (Desormeaux/Desormeaux) 12-1: Well beaten by NO NAY NEVER in his last, and he frankly may have peaked earlier this year. I've backed him a few times in a row now, but I'll jump off of his train here.
8. Something Extra (Da Silva/G. Cox) 20-1: His last race at this distance was one of his worst, but Kentucky Downs plays long at the 6.5 furlong distance, whereas it plays more like 6 furlongs at Santa Anita. SOMETHING EXTRA should like the "shortening" here and is tempting at a price.
10. Home Run Kitten (Talamo/Hofmans) 12-1: Won the Eddie D last out, but has to deal with even more traffic and much more class in this race. I'll play against.
11. Undrafted (Velasquez/Ward) 8-1: Extremely nice win in the Jaipur earlier this year to collar MARCHMAN late; then nearly won a Group 1 at Newmarket, and then was a half-length back in his last at Kentucky Downs. Probably the class of the field and should improve second off the layoff.
12. Dimension (Moore/Murphy) 12-1: Did beat UNDRAFTED last out, but being at Kentucky Downs, that's just hard form to transfer elsewhere.
13. Caspar Netscher (Smullen/Simcock) 10-1: Wheeling back on short rest here and running his third race in four weeks. Wasn't very good in group races overseas, though, so you have to wonder if the Nearctic win was just a function of lesser competition than he'll see here.
14. No Nay Never (Dettori/Ward) 9-2: The Woodford win was downright dominant. It says he only won by half a length, but he was never losing that race. A group 1 winner in France last year, he nearly won the Swale on dirt here in March, and that was the only loss in his career. I'll be a bit surprised if he's not more like 2-1 or 3-1.
15. Ageless (Leparoux/Delacour) 20-1: It would be pretty easy to make a case for this one at this price. If it holds, add this one to the list!
GENERAL OUTLOOK: Well, RENEESGOTZIP is hard to bet against, but I guess I also wouldn't bet on her at this point. I like BOBBY'S KITTEN, UNDRAFTED and NO NAY NEVER the most, while SOMETHING EXTRA and AGELESS seem to just be value plays at square prices. This does have the feeling, however, of a "wide open" race that ends up going chalk-chalk and pays $8 on the winning favorite.
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