Truly a ton going on this week -- between caring for my 10-day-old son, going back to work after 10 days off, and prepping for a TRIP TO THE BELMONT STAKES, I wanted to get my written thoughts out here before I simply run out of time.
I think CALIFORNIA CHROME has a great shot to win the Triple Crown as none of the horses that truly scared me are here (DANZA and INTENSE HOLIDAY). The 1.5-mile distance of the Belmont is clearly a question, but it is for every horse in the field. The problem is that, well, based on pedigree alone, it's a *bigger* question for CALIFORNIA CHROME than it is for any other horse in the field.
And that's primarily why, while I'll absolutely be rooting for him to win, I'll be betting against him. While he stayed on perfectly well in both the Derby and the Preakness (103-101 early-late pace figs in the Preakness and 98-98 early-late figs in the Derby), it sure seemed to me that he was all-out late to stay ahead of a better-moving RIDE ON CURLIN.
On the other hand, the fallacy every year is that closers will relish extra ground. In fact, it's often very much the opposite -- horses simply don't win from far back in the Belmont. COMMANDING CURVE's Derby run will be the most overbet angle of the year. Everyone saw him flying late, so the thinking goes, if he has another two furlongs, he'll fly by.
It doesn't work that way. I don't have the exact stat, but an extremely high percentage of Belmont winners have the lead by the quarter pole (i.e. two furlongs out). PALACE MALICE did it with a strong turn move last year and kept the lead while everyone staggered down the stretch.
As always, here are some quick and dirty tiers with all possible runners listed by tier:
NOT ON MY TICKETS:
13. MATUSZAK: I have no real idea why he's in against these, and the fact that the typically conservative Bill Mott is the trainer is literally the *only* piece that gives me pause. He's a stone cold closer that has won just one race against much lesser competition, so he'd have to be something like 100/1 to be any value.
12. MATTERHORN: Scratching my head again here. Hasn't been closer than 6.5 lengths in any non-maiden race, yet now he's trying these? Maybe Pletcher knows something, but again, we're talking 100/1 range here.
11. KID CRUZ: I would have thought this "experiment" was over after the pathetic Preakness showing. Breeding is bad, run style is worse. At least with the other two above him here, there's a question of "well, maybe they know something," but there's no chance KID CRUZ wins.
TOO MUCH TO ASK:
10. COMMISSIONER: I am mostly inclined to write this horse off — he was beaten 10 lengths in the Fountain of Youth, seven lengths in the Sunland Derby, and then 11 lengths in the Arkansas Derby. And I have no real intention of betting this horse. Buuut ... he ran well in the Peter Pan against TONALIST, and he has flashed some signs of that consistent running style that plays well here. Overall, I don't see him jumping up to win, but he's playable in exotics.
9. SAMRAAT: He stayed on better in the Derby than I expected, but he's probably the second-biggest question in the field as far as distance goes. He's a sturdy performer with a good, seemingly one-paced style that plays well in this race, but I just don't think he's good enough with the distance questions.
8. SOCIAL INCLUSION: He looked CALIFORNIA CHROME in the eye on the Preakness turn ... and CALIFORNIA CHROME spurted right away. IF he runs here (I don't think he will ... if he is, why are they drilling him 3 furlongs in 33 2/5 seconds?), I just don't see how he could turn the tables. He doesn't have the racing foundation that CHROME does, so to ask him to wheel back and step up in distance is an awfully big ask when he had every opportunity to beat CHROME last time and was clearly beaten.
THE HALFWAY INTRIGUING HORSE:
7. GENERAL A ROD: I warmed on him a bit the nearer the Preakness drew, and he really should have finished third in the race. Maybe even closer! He got shuffled back *badly* on the turn, and he actually made up more ground on CALIFORNIA CHROME in the stretch than did RIDE ON CURLIN. His breeding is a bit of a mixed bag but is great on the sire side, and his running lines would indicate he'll just keep on going as far as needed. I think he'll be close and if some horses fall apart in front of him, he could pull a shocker. Probably the worst mark against him is that he hasn't taken a break, and historically new shooters (either those that ran the Derby and skipped the Preakness or skipped both) have just been better than worn down horses.
THE OVERBET CREW:
6. COMMANDING CURVE: Everyone saw that fast-closing second in the Derby. He lagged well back, came flying eight wide, and fell less than two lengths short. HOW COULD YOU NOT BET ON THIS HORSE WITH AN EXTRA QUARTER MILE? Well, as mentioned, this was ICE BOX, FLY DOWN, etc., all over again. And let's not forget: I said that COMMANDING CURVE was GOLDEN SOUL all over again in my Derby Preview, then neglected to bet him like an idiot. Well, GOLDEN SOUL finished second in last year's Derby and then ran ninth in the Belmont. Again, that one-run style just doesn't play well at Belmont, and he'll definitely be overbet.
5. WICKED STRONG: Well-bred for the distance, has won at this track ... but don't let that fool you. He won while racing *on the lead* at the second call. In other words, his purely deep-closer style of late did not get him there. Despite coming strong in the stretch of the Derby -- he made up a few lengths on CALIFORNIA CHROME down the stretch -- he actually lost ground on him from the second call (four lengths back at the second call and 5.75 lengths back at the finish). And, of course, his style doesn't fit with this race. So, he'll clearly be overbet.
4. TONALIST: Looms a *huge* threat if the track is muddy or sloppy. His breeding is fantastic for both the distance and the slop. His 107 speed figure in that race is better than any CHROME has ever run, but the key to me was that he was on an uncontested lead and was allowed to set a fairly slow pace all on his own. He was never challenged, and horses often run the best figures of their lives when presented with such a situation. And that's why, ultimately, while I think he's a real threat, I won't be betting him -- the public loves speed figures and often follows them blindly, and they won't take *how* he achieved that figure into account. If you erase that race, he's only had three starts and he never ran a speed figure better than 93. A clear pass to me as the likely second choice.
MY WIN CONTENDERS:
3. RIDE ON CURLIN: His daddy nearly won the Belmont in 2007, so the breeding is certainly there. He seems to have more speed than his purely "closer" status would portray, so I think he'll sit the right kind of trip. The question is if he could make up another 1.5 lengths with two more furlongs on top of the 1.5 lengths he made up in the Preakness stretch against CALIFORNIA CHROME. It's absolutely possible. It's also possible that he'll be overbet based on that performance, but I'd like to bet him at 8/1 or better.
2. MEDAL COUNT: Going "back to the well" worked last year with PALACE MALICE, and I'm likely doing so again here. History has shown in the past 12 years or so that the most successful Belmont horses have been Derby runners that skipped the Preakness. MEDAL COUNT got shuffled back a bit early but was only three lengths off the lead at the second call, and then he was coming hard down the stretch but got completely stopped by DANZA. He likely would have been third or even second if not for that issue. So, without making too much of a troubled trip, I liked a lot about this colt in the Derby, and I still like plenty about him now. He has the best "long distance" pedigree in the race; well, either him or TONALIST. I'll take a shot here at a much bigger price.
THE LIKELY TRIPLE CROWN WINNER:
1. CALIFORNIA CHROME: I really, really do hope he wins. Based on the horses in the field, I would actually not be at all surprised if he doesn't go straight to the lead here and tries to carry his speed all the way around. I hope not, frankly, because I fear we would see a repeat of SMARTY JONES in 2004 where a number of horses took a crack at him around the track before he finally gave way late. There's no doubt that he's the best horse, but between the breeding and the running style thing, there are enough questions here that I would only make him even money ... and I would be pretty surprised if he's going off above that. If he is, well, I'M IN. But he'll likely be 3/5.
As I'm typing this on Sunday, I foresee betting GENERAL A ROD, RIDE ON CURLIN, and MEDAL COUNT to win, and those three in exactas and maybe even a trifecta with CALIFORNIA CHROME. I don't want to burn too much money playing deep exotics in a race like this because it's so hard to figure who's going to run out of gas in the stretch. IF I was going to try a super, I think you'd have to include TONALIST and WICKED STRONG despite their likely overbet status.
As a final word, this may not even be the third-best race on the card. There are five Grade 1's on the card, and man, the Met Mile is going to be AWESOME. And the Ogden Phipps is probably even better. I couldn't be more excited to be heading to New York later this week!
