It's just generally really hard to feel strongly about any of these juvenile races, especially on the turf. All horse racing, of course, is a guessing game, but these juvenile races are often largely impenetrable — see ANTONIA, RIA, at 32-1 last year winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies.
As such, these juvenile races will get a fair amount less attention than their older counterparts. Less information = less to say, but here goes:
PACE OUTLOOK: I think we'll see a somewhat quick pace in this one, yet not *too* fast. LUCK OF THE KITTEN and HOOTENANNY figure to be forwardly placed, but I don't think they'll run each other into the ground to get the lead.
GENERAL OUTLOOK: As usual, it seems, the Euros appear head and shoulders above the American contingent. It's hard to get excited about betting any American horse to win, and even the exotics figure to be populated by Euros.
As such, these juvenile races will get a fair amount less attention than their older counterparts. Less information = less to say, but here goes:
PACE OUTLOOK: I think we'll see a somewhat quick pace in this one, yet not *too* fast. LUCK OF THE KITTEN and HOOTENANNY figure to be forwardly placed, but I don't think they'll run each other into the ground to get the lead.
GENERAL OUTLOOK: As usual, it seems, the Euros appear head and shoulders above the American contingent. It's hard to get excited about betting any American horse to win, and even the exotics figure to be populated by Euros.
2. Daddy D T (Nakatani/Sadler) 15-1: Comes back to what should be his preferred surface after a dud in the Frontrunner on dirt. His one win came in an ungraded stakes race at Del Mar, but speed figure-wise, it was about the same as the dud on the Frontrunner. I think he can move forward coming back to the turf and I could see taking a shot here.
3. Luck of the Kitten (Smith/Ward) 8-1: The confirmed speed of the field. He hasn't beaten much of anything to date, and HOOTENANNY will likely put enough pressure on to keep him honest.
4. Commemorative (Doyle/Hills) 8-1: Comes into this race off of two turf mile wins in Great Britain. His sire is less imposing than some of the others we see here, and his two wins have been more lumbering than flashy. He won't be able to lumber around on the lead on Friday, so this is one Euro I feel comfortable passing on.
5. Hootenanny (Dettori/Ward) 3-1: This was actually my knee jerk pick to win, and it's hard to forget about his powerhouse win in the Windsor Castle at Ascot back in June. But that was at five furlongs. He was caught at the wire in the Group 1 Darley Prix Morny in France on August 24 at six furlongs, and his pedigree strongly indicates that he would be best sticking to a turf sprint. At a mile and a short price, and with likely pace pressure from LUCK OF THE KITTEN, I'll pass on this Wesley Ward trainee.
6. Conquest Typhoon (Husbands/Casse) 12-1: Kind of a tweener ... I'm not totally comfortable going against him, and yet I can't endorse him. He won a G2 at Woodbine on yielding turf this summer, then just missed in a G3 on the fake stuff there. How will he do on the rock hard turf at Santa Anita? My gut is not quite as well, particularly given that he figures to be part of that pace scenario, as well.
7. War Envoy (Moore/O'Brien) 9-2: Pretty clearly the class of the field here and one who figures to improve with some extra ground this time. You could knock him for only winning one of seven starts to date, but that would almost be like betting against the Jacksonville Jaguars playing a high school team ... WAR ENVOY is taking a clear class drop here and is absolutely playable at odds of more than 3-1.
8. Offering Plan (I. Ortiz/Brown) 20-1: Was two lengths back at each call in his last race with no pace to run into. The pedigree is nothing to write home about, but with only two races under his belt, there's certainly room for improvement. That said, as a May foal, he's likely giving up a great deal of maturity to the others here, and IMPERIA ran right by him in their last start against each other.
10. Startup Nation (Rosario/Brown) 12-1: Was dominant when closing into a fast pace in the With Anticipation at Saratoga. Was unimpressive without the pace in the Pilgrim at Belmont. Shortening up to a mile here could help, but the With Anticipation just completely fell apart — he was in front by 3 at the top of the stretch. I don't see it.
11. Imperia (Castellano/McLaughlin) 6-1: This horse illustrates the difficulty with two-year-olds. In two races, particularly his last, he closed sharply into a slow pace to win decisively. With a fast pace, you'd like to think that will only improve that closing kick. But ... without any evidence, will it really? Or will he fall too far back against a faster pace? Or will he expend too much energy keeping up early? At a short price, I'll keep my money in my pocket.
12. International Star (Velasquez/Maker) 15-1: My first thought is that I'd rather see this one on dirt, but my next thought is that he's just not good enough to win. I could see him catching a piece late, but so could any of these.
13. Lawn Ranger (Landeros/McPeek) 20-1: Rarely do you see horses that have a slower pace at the second call than both their first call and late call, but this one has done that in all of his races. He just seems clearly a cut below here in every possible way, from breeding to speed figures to competition faced. I wouldn't bet him with counterfeit money.
14. Danny Boy (Leparoux/Romans) 20-1: The above comment applies almost verbatim to this one, but this one at least has better breeding. Still, there doesn't seem much of a chance here.
SUMMARY: #1 WET SAIL, #2 DADDY DT, #7 WAR ENVOY, #9 AKTABANTAY are the four that primarily interest me. I don't have much of a nuanced strategy here ... I'll likely make win bets of varying sizes on all of them, and probably throw them into an exacta box, as well.
FINAL PLAY: Will bet 1, 2 and 7 to win. With the 9 scratching, I will throw the 12 into an exacta box with the other 3.
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