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| The top three finishers in the Derby meet again in the Preakness. It only takes one horse (the Derby winner) to win one race (the Preakness) for a Triple Crown to be on the line in the Belmont Stakes. Can AMERICAN PHAROAH do it? |
"It only takes one horse (the Derby winner) to win one race (the Preakness) for a Triple Crown to be
on the line in the Belmont Stakes."
That's a paraphrased version of a great quote I read within the last week but whose source has now escaped me. And we're just one race away from AMERICAN PHAROAH being the horse with a chance to capture the first Triple Crown since AFFIRMED in 1978.
This year's Preakness field has shaped up to be extraordinary in some — four of the top five finishers from the Derby are running — and disappointing in others — the total field size is just eight, and the fourth- and sixth-place finishers (FROSTED and MATERIALITY, respectively) are not running. That's a shame because I think those two ran the best races of any horse not named AMERICAN PHAROAH and would have been prime upset candidates in this race.
With that said, you can't rationally evaluate the Preakness without taking a look at the Derby. So let's start there. (If you would prefer an audio preview, here's a link to a podcast with myself and noted experts Zach Trexler and Ed Ronsman: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bxd6tcpYiDOha1ZkX2tfalpkdkk/view?usp=sharing)
KENTUCKY DERBY RECAP
"They didn't even run a damn race."
Those were my words in the immediate aftermath of the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby. In retrospect, maybe the pace wasn't *that* slow — 47.34 isn't fast by any means in comparison to previous runnings of the Derby but it's not necessarily crawling when we're talking about going 1 1/4 miles — but the "merry go round" nature of the race certainly supported the notion that the front running horses benefited from the pace. On the other hand, you could argue that the three horses in front that stayed there were clearly the best horses in the race — and the off odds agreed — so there was no real evidence of pace or track bias after all.
Personally, I have to trust my gut and stick with my initial assessment that between the track (I believe every winner on the main track was less than three lengths off the lead at the half-mile pole) and the pace, horses coming from further back were severely disadvantaged. That's not to say that the eventual top-three finishers were necessarily lucky or didn't run good races or anything like that, but they were definitely not hurt by the way the track was playing in the way that some of the others were.
With that said, probably the biggest Derby disappointment was DORTMUND. He got away with those relatively soft fractions and still folded up his tent at the eighth pole. As they hit the second turn after 3/4 in 1:11.29, DORTMUND led FIRING LINE and AMERICAN PHAROAH, with CARPE DIEM fourth and DANZIG MOON fifth (note now that the only changes in finishing order were FROSTED running on late while covering a ton of ground wide in the turn for fourth and DORTMUND and AMERICAN PHAROAH swapping spots). By the time they hit the top of the stretch, the three were about on even terms, with FIRING LINE and AMERICAN PHAROAH definitely going better than DORTMUND.
And then the stretch run was on. DORTMUND never looked like a winner, but stayed on rather well. As has been well-documented by now, AMERICAN PHAROAH had to be whipped 32 times down the stretch, and it just generally seemed like both the horse and jockey were working a lot harder FIRING LINE and his human counterpart. A lot of that is surely to do with jockey style — Gary is just more of a smooth operator than Victor — but it's fair to question if that kind of beating (I don't necessarily mean that derisively, but it really was some serious stick work from Victor) would take more out of AMERICAN PHAROAH than it did FIRING LINE as we head into the Preakness only two weeks later.
FIRING LINE drifted out a bit late as AMERICAN PHAROAH came in just a bit, but even Gary noted that he was doing some acting work as he "steadied" FIRING LINE in deep stretch when he knew he wasn't going by the eventual winner.
After surviving the mad rush early and getting beat around a bit, DANZIG MOON settled pretty nicely and ran the most even race ever. In my eyes, he took fifth almost by default as no other horses were able to close into the pace on that track.
I'll get into some more horse-by-horse specifics below as I detail the chances of the field. But first ...
OVERALL PREAKNESS FEELINGS
This race reeks of the 2012 edition. That's not a bad thing in terms of race quality — the 2012 edition was an absolute thriller (seriously, click here and go watch right now (note: somehow finding an HD version of this race is impossible)), but that makes it a pretty weak betting race. The 2012 Preakness was a rematch of I'LL HAVE ANOTHER and BODEMEISTER, with CREATIVE CAUSE the fifth-place Derby finisher. They ultimately finished in that order 1-2-3 in the Preakness, and it's really tough to see anything else happening in this year's Preakness. DIVINING ROD or DANZIG MOON could maybe fill out the bottom of the trifecta if one of the big three doesn't fire, but any other result seems nearly impossible to fathom. The Preakness almost always plays very true to form — the best horse usually does win (unlike the Derby, which is often won by the horse that gets the best trip). OK, here goes:
WHY BOTHER?
8. BODHISATTVA: He grabbed an easy lead in his last race, a $100k stake at Pimlico, walked through fractions of :49 and 1:13 3/5, and won by 1.5 lengths against weak competition. The last time he raced in graded competition, he went off at odds of 114-1 in the Grade 2 Remsen last November, and ultimately ran fifth, beaten 11 lengths. He may well have improved some since then, but he flattened out when he went 1 1/8 miles two starts back despite getting a nice pace to close into, and there's simply not a lot here to get excited about. He is the hometown hopeful, but there's not much hope to go around here.
7. MR Z: I am tickled by the way this all played out. For the past week or so, or at least for the past few days, D. Wayne Lukas has been adamant that MR Z would be running in the Preakness. Meanwhile, owner Ahmed Zayat seemed exasperated on Twitter, repeatedly saying HE WILL NOT RUN. Suddenly, earlier today (Wednesday, May 13), news broke that MR Z would be sold to Calumet Farm and that he *will* run in the Preakness. The lesson: Never doubt Coach Lukas. MR Z had a miserable Derby trip and actually ran on fairly well in the end to finish 13th of 18 horses. Lukas calls the race a throw out and says he has MR Z as good as he's ever been. Which, you know, is fine ... but I ranked him 19/19 in the Derby, and only put him at No. 7 here in the very, very unlikely case that Lukas is right (someone said "Lukas doesn't kidnap horses for the hell of it, you know") and MR Z uses the speed-favoring Pimlico strip to his advantage and runs back to his Los Alamitos performance from last year when he was nip and tuck with DORTMUND and FIRING LINE to the wire.
6. TALE OF VERVE: The case for him, I suppose, is that he won a race at Keeneland going 1 3/16 miles while closing into a very slow early pace despite being six lengths back. And that late kick was good enough to give him a 114 late pace figure, which is rivaled only by AMERICAN PHAROAH's 109 in the Rebel earlier this year. So what happens if get gets a faster pace to run into? Will he close even more strongly and make up even more ground? No, for three reason: 1. When a race is as slow as TALE OF VERVE's maiden breaking win was (they went the first 3/4 miles in 1:14 2/5), every horse in the race will have a mammoth late pace figure because they all have plenty of energy left. 2. While 114 is impressive no matter the early pace, he won solely because of the competition he faced — he was a 3/5 favorite in a six-horse field that got a race rating of 109 (by comparison, the Derby's race rating was 119). 3. Pimlico is a speed-favoring track. You just don't close successfully from that far back, not against these kinds of horses. So why run him? My guess is that it's because this horse was a $440,000 purchase last April and the owner is hoping against hope that his purchase can be somewhat justified. Good luck, Mr. Fipke.
THE MILDLY LESS HOPELESS
5. DANZIG MOON: I kind of summed up my thoughts on DANZIG MOON earlier, and I will copy and paste them here: "After surviving the mad rush early and getting beat around a bit, DANZIG MOON settled pretty nicely and ran the most even race ever. In my eyes, he took fifth almost by default as no other horses were able to close into the pace on that track." He was never sniffing even DORTMUND, who of course looked weary late as the two others ran by him. Despite the early action in the Derby, he was still more forwardly placed than he had been in any other start sans his maiden win, which by the way is still the only time he crossed the wire first. In this field, he sets up as being further back, and I really have to say that they should have awaited the Belmont, where his completely one-paced style and nice distance pedigree would have played pretty well. At the Preakness, I'll be quite surprised if he runs any better than third.
THE "WISE GUY" CHOICE
4. DIVINING ROD: He's the only horse in the race with anything close to the talent of the Derby runners, plus he's fresh, which puts him clearly ahead of DANZIG MOON. He looked like a real talent in winning the Lexington in dominating fashion, and let's not forget that he only lost the Tampa Bay Derby by a neck. But he got the quintessential perfect trip in the Lexington, and after that Tampa performance, he went on to finish 7.5 lengths back of CARPE DIEM in the Tampa Bay Derby. So you can play both sides here. What I like about him is that he showed the versatility to sit off the pace and inside of horses in the Lexington; even though the trip was perfect, he still was able to settle. The fun scenario for his backers is that the top three go too fast while being pressured by the likes of MR Z and BODHISATTVA (who I honestly doubt is quick enough to put real pressure on, but the connections may deem that suicide mission their best chance to win), and he settles in 2-3 lengths off the pace and has first run on the likes of DANZIG MOON. Even with that said, it's hard to envision him being good enough to win, but I think he'll get some solid support. One interesting subplot here is that Julien Leparoux — who rode DIVINING ROD in the Lexington and DANZIG MOON in the Derby — will stick with DANZIG MOON. Some might read that as Leparoux thinking DANZIG MOON is the superior horse, but I mostly read it as Leparoux sticking with a trainer (Casse) who gives him more business. Additionally, DIVINING ROD gets Castellano aboard, who I think is miles better, anyway.
THE DERBY TRIFECTA
3. FIRING LINE: The case for FIRING LINE is relatively simple in my mind, and it goes something like this: DORTMUND is a tired horse who didn't have an excuse for stopping like he did in the Kentucky Derby. He's "over the top" (to borrow some horse parlance) and needs a break to regain his best form. As I noted earlier, AMERICAN PHAROAH got hit 32 times in the stretch of the Derby — after barely, if ever, getting whipped in previous races — and it's fair to think that might have taken some starch out of him. FIRING LINE, on the other hand, had 40 days of rest before the Derby, and should be the freshest horse of the three. And staying the 1 1/4 miles like he did with that kind of rest between races bodes well for his second race back. Gosh, I have to say — I've almost talked myself into him! And Gary Stevens said he's learned a lot about him in riding him the past three races now ... very interesting. And -- AND -- he also never switched leads down the entire stretch, which some would say that, had he done, he would have won (others would say that it's a sign of a physical problem or extreme fatigue, but I digress). So what's the case against him? Simply that I don't think he's quite as good as the two above him. DORTMUND beat him twice and AMERICAN PHAROAH of course beat him last time. Betting on FIRING LINE to win, in my opinion, is betting that neither of those horses are at their best. And, you know, maybe that's true. But Baffert has no reason to run DORTMUND if he's not 100 percent — why put your chances of a Triple Crown at risk? — and AMERICAN PHAROAH appears no worse for the wear by all accounts. Another subplot here that is in my mind is that Gary Stevens won the Preakness on OXBOW in 2013 by walking the dog on the front end, and FIRING LINE has never been more than a head off the early pace in his last four starts. If DORTMUND doesn't break well or switches tactics in the smaller field, is he on the lead? Is he the one fending off early challenges from the longer shots? Is he the one potentially softening up a rating AMERICAN PHAROAH? The post position for FIRING LINE out at No. 8 certainly helps him as he can make his own race whereas AMERICAN PHAROAH and DORTMUND sort of have to go from down there, but in the end, there are too many questions at what I would guess will be the second choice price.
2. DORTMUND: So what happened? While I ultimately bet FROSTED to win most heavily, DORTMUND was the most likely winner in my mind. and when he got away with the fractions he did, it looked even better. But when FIRING LINE and AMERICAN PHAROAH made their moves, DORTMUND was empty-ish. He couldn't stick with them, but at the same time, he didn't throw in the towel. So did the track carry him home? Usually when you see a frontrunner throw in the towel at the top of the stretch, they throw it in completely and finish further back in the pack. And make no mistake, DORTMUND has run faster in past races and still finished more strongly, no matter which metric you use — his Santa Anita Derby was his best race speed figure wise, when he posted a 106 after fractions of :46 1/5, 1:10 2/5, and 1:35 3/5. Now, to be fair, I wondered aloud in my Derby preview if he might have trouble with the final quarter mile ... and maybe he did. But he was already third by the time they hit the stretch, and this was after fractions of :47 1/5, 1:11 1/5, and 1:36 2/5. Nearly a second slower at all calls, but instead of coming home in 13 seconds like he did in the Santa Anita Derby, Was the rail dead? MUBTAAHIJ and CARPE DIEM both had nice rail trips and backed up in a big way. DORTMUND galloped out past FIRING LINE and AMERICAN PHAROAH, which sort of runs counter to the idea that he ran out of gas, too. And then there's the noise at the Derby, which is surely unlike anything he's ever heard before, and the fact that he doesn't run with ear plugs, but wears them before the race. Also that he needed to get saddled in the tunnel as opposed to a stall. And look — it's easy to look at all of this stuff and say, "It sounds like excuse after excuse, Bob." And it is. The easy thing to do is to toss him. That's why I believe that he'll offer some nice value on a track that will play more to his strengths, and in post No. 2, he might get a sweet rating trip while hanging FIRING LINE wide.
1. AMERICAN PHAROAH: I thought about being cheeky and putting DORTMUND on top again, but that would just be kind of silly at this point. There's no doubt which horse should be the favorite, and in a race that is typically won by the best horse, AMERICAN PHAROAH should win the Preakness. He covered a lot more ground than the horses that ran behind him (29 more feet than FIRING LINE and 69 more feet than DORTMUND), and even if the outside was a better part of the track, that's significant. He also actually put away FIRING LINE late as opposed to just barely holding on; it's hard to watch the race and say that you think FIRING LINE was ever going past him. The post position draw added some intrigue to the race because if he happens to not get off to a great start, he'll have to work his way out to the clear ... but on the other hand, it reminds me very much of the Santa Anita Derby where DORTMUND broke from post No. 1 and ONE LUCKY DANE effectively operated as a force field, floating any other challengers pretty wide and giving DORTMUND the run of the race. I'm not saying that DORTMUND will function only in that capacity here, but he's certainly not going to purposefully shut the door on AMERICAN PHAROAH. What hurts the most is the presence of MR Z in post No. 3. I expect him to be going for the lead, and if he gets off to a better start, we know he has some serious speed, and we know Lukas really wants to run him ... so I don't think he's just laying back, and he could pose some problems for the big two here if he gets in front of them. But at the end of the day, he's just clearly the best horse. He has the speed to go to the lead, and I think he will, and I don't think they'll catch him. If you can get even money, that's a hand over first bet.
WAGERING THOUGHTS
Overall, don't get too cute here. As I mentioned earlier, this is extremely reminiscent of the 2012 running, and I actually hit the superfecta in that race. I'LL HAVE ANOTHER won at odds of 5-2, beating BODEMEISTER at odds of 8-5, CREATIVE CAUSE at odds of 6-1, and ZETTERHOLM at odds of 20-1. I boxed the big three with three others in a superfecta and hoped for some weird things to happen. The cost of the box was $36. The bet returned $42.40.
So yeah, don't get too cute chasing a big payout here, because it's not happening unless things go completely crazy. If, say, BODHISATTVA beats MR Z and TALE OF VERVE fills out the trifecta, yes, that will pay roughly $1 million USD. And maybe such a result is technically an overlay ... but it's the sort of overlay that you could bet a million times and never realize. If you're the sort that plays the lottery (I am not), then boxing up DANZIG MOON-TALE OF VERVE-BODHISSATVA-MR Z in a trifecta for $12 is probably some nice entertainment if you're OK with never seeing that money again. But I wouldn't bother trying to figure out who's going to run 3rd or 4th behind a couple of the big three here — that's what everyone else is doing, and it's not going to pay a thing. Horses like TALE OF VERVE in the third spot will be massive underlays in relation to their actual probability of finishing there.
At the end of the day, I think this is just simply a race where you roll old school and plop down a nice win bet on whichever of the three you think offers the most value. I think one of these three horses wins about 95% of the time, so you need some serious odds on the rest of the field to consider any of them for the top spot. And it's a Triple Crown race, so you get some more "public" money than you do normally, which means that you have people betting simply because they like the name, or the color, etc.
With all of that said, I'll play this one pretty straight. I might play some multi-race wagers heading into the Preakness, but the race itself will be pretty boring. If I can get the below odds or better at post time, I will bet the horse in question:
AMERICAN PHAROAH 1/1
DORTMUND 5/2
FIRING LINE 5/1
What this likely adds up to is simply a bet on DORTMUND, and me nervously watching to see if his last race was a fluke or a sign of true regression. Should be fun!
