I have a reasonably strong opinion in this one that I'll try not to let cloud my judgment too much.
GENERAL OUTLOOK: OK, fine. I like SWEET REASON HERE. In one-turn miles or seven furlong races, she has been dominant. She faces tougher here than she has in three-year-old only races, but as long as STONETASTIC doesn't totally steal this race, I think SWEET REASON is a very likely winner.
1. Sweet Reason (I. Ortiz/Gyarmati) 9-2: Cat's out of the bag here. I like her, period.
2. Little Alexis (Rosario/Green) 15-1: She's bred to go longer, so while the cutback may be helpful here ... I don't really see it.
3. Stonetastic (Lopez/Breen) 8-1: Her Prioress win was really impressive, but did she actually beat anyone there? I think a more likely run is her last at Keeneland, where she was beaten by LEIGH COURT and SOUTHERN HONEY when pressed by the prior.
4. Thank You Marylou (Velasquez/Maker) 20-1: Wheeling back on two weeks rest here after getting beaten by 10 lengths in the Raven Run. That very well may have been a career-best effort, but expecting her to repeat that, if that was even good enough, again after flying cross country seems like stretch.
5. Artemis Agrotera (J. Ortiz/Hushion) 3-1: Absolutely lost contact with the field in the Gallant Bloom before coming flying late. I would love to know what happened between the Acorn, when she was beaten by 14 lengths on June 7 (by Sweet Reason), and an option claimer on July 23, when she ran a 104 speed fig on the lead. I don't trust this horse and am not sure she has beaten much in her last three. I'll pass at 3-1.
6. Leigh Court (G. Boulanger/Carroll) 4-1: The question with this one is which horse shows up. Does she sit off the pace like she did in her last, her first on dirt in 10 starts, or is she the speed horse she had been on turf and synthetic in the previous eight starts? I'm not willing to bet on what she does here.
7. Judy The Beauty (Smith/Ward) 5-2: Hasn't run since Aug. 14, and before that, hadn't run since May 3. She ran her lifetime best race at Santa Anita last fall when second to GROUPIE DOLL, but she has only won once on dirt. That seems like a problem when we're talking about odds of 5-2. And she worked on the turf for her last work. With that said, it's hard to see her not bringing her A game, so don't try to get too cute with exotics here.
8. Better Lucky (Castellano/Albertrani) 15-1: This all-surface performer beat the likes of GRACE HALL and MY MISS AURELIA on dirt three back before starting slow two back and nearly beating DAY AT THE SPA on good turf in her last. I would generally say she's unlikely to get the pace she needs here, but she's the true late runner I like the most.
9. Living The Life (Bejarano/G. Mandella) 12-1: Has never run on the dirt, but has won two straight tries on the synthetic since coming to America. I would generally think she won't like the dirt, and the works have been kind of slow ... but that has been true on both dirt and synthetic. Too many questions in this field.
10. Southern Honey (Laparoux/Arnold) 20-1: Consistent performer who won the Grade 3 Winning Colors earlier this year but has been beaten by SWEET REASON, LITTLE ALEXIS, LEIGH COURT and STONETASTIC since. I'll pass on the win end.
SYSTEM PLAYS: The system really likes BETTER LUCKY. THANK YOU MARYLOU and SOUTHERN HONEY are close, and the general system feel is that this race is too wide open for anyone to be less than 4-1.
SUMMARY: I don't really disagree with the system here, but I still have that gut feeling that SWEET REASON is really, really good at one-turn races despite not having the speed figures to outright say it. I do also like BETTER LUCKY, and may play exotics with those two on top and the field on bottom.
SYSTEM PLAYS: The system really likes BETTER LUCKY. THANK YOU MARYLOU and SOUTHERN HONEY are close, and the general system feel is that this race is too wide open for anyone to be less than 4-1.
SUMMARY: I don't really disagree with the system here, but I still have that gut feeling that SWEET REASON is really, really good at one-turn races despite not having the speed figures to outright say it. I do also like BETTER LUCKY, and may play exotics with those two on top and the field on bottom.
No comments:
Post a Comment