Ah, a race with some real form that we can dig into. After handicapping juveniles, this seems pretty straightforward (gulp). Let's go.
PACE OUTLOOK: Saucy. From the rail, GOLDENCENTS pretty much has to go, and we all remember how he won this race last year in blistering fashion on the front end. VICAR'S IN TROUBLE either likes to be on the lead or a head off of it. FED BIZ had been mostly uncompetitive on dirt until he went to the lead last tie and nearly beat SHARED BELIEF. So ... yeah. I would be surprised if this half was slower than :45.
GENERAL OUTLOOK: Last year's tour de force from GOLDENCENTS notwithstanding, this race has often been bombs away city, and the field this year feels very evenly matched. At a glance, I don't really feel comfortable tossing anyone.
1. Goldencents (Bejarano/Mora) 6-5: His win last year was uber impressive and a devastating display of speed. The difference, I think, is that he was out there all alone. I just don't see that happening this year, and the rail poses some issues, as well. Now, on the other hand, his workout was fantastic. I would absolutely not leave him out of exotics chasing a huge score because he seems unlikely to throw a completely clunker, but at close to even money, I think there are better options here.
2. Carve (Smith/Cox) 15-1: He might fit here just fine. He was only 1 1/4 lengths back earlier this year against the likes of WILL TAKE CHARGE and REVOLUTIONARY, and after a tough luck start in the Pimlico Special, he reeled off three straight wins, the first of which was piloted by Mike Smith, who gets back aboard Friday. He should benefit from the turn back to the mile and should sit a good trip a few lengths off the lead. He'll be overlooked and good value.
3. Vicar's In Trouble (Velasquez/Maker) 12-1: Simply seems a cut below the best whenever he's tried them before. He's been dominant in Louisiana and underwhelming elsewhere. Play against, especially with GOLDENCENTS on the rail to burn him out.
4. Pants On Fire (Lopez/Breen) 6-1: Has been OK, but he simply hasn't been the same horse he was a year ago. Father time may be catching up to this one at age 6.
6. Golden Ticket (Rosario/McPeek) 15-1: A hard trying type that ran some big speed figures earlier this year before getting crushed in the Whitney and then the Kelso in his last race. A cut below here.
7. Bronzo (Torres/Inda) 12-1: It's hard to make an argument for this one knowing that the winner of a race he finished fourth, 10 lengths back in, on March 15, came to the U.S. and was beaten by 13 lengths in the Gold Cup in June. On the plus side, he has six works at Santa Anita and they've been quick — a good sign for a horse that hasn't run less than a 1 1/8 this year. It's a wild stab here, but given the potential for a pace meltdown, there could be value here.
8. Fed Biz (Garcia/Baffert) 7-2: Extremely difficult call here, but I will lean on my workout assessment of him and say his last dirt performance was either a fluke or took something out of him. His past dirt performances have been below his best synthetic runs, and so I will expect him to run a generally non-threatening race and/or burn out on the lead.
9. Tapiture (Napravnik/Asmussen) 6-1: His West Virginia Derby was one of the most impressive races I've seen this year, and it's hard to fault him for getting blown out after BAYERN walked on the lead in the PA Derby. Aaaand I think a mile may be his best distance. His last work was impressive and I think he can become the second consecutive three-year-old to win this race.
10. Big Bane Theory (Talamo/Gaines) 15-1: Huh. Tough spot to make your dirt debut, don't you think? He has worked fine over the dirt, but seems likely much better on dirt and turf. It's actually such a strange move that it scares me a bit, but this seems more likely to be the result of owners wanting to take a crazy shot than someone keeping bullets close to their vest.
SYSTEM PLAYS: The first appearance of a system play section! Keep in mind that these are against the morning line and not necessarily what I'll do:
CARVE 15-1
VICAR'S IN TROUBLE 12-1
Ignore the system! I would definitely argue that VICAR'S IN TROUBLE is a better bet than FED BIZ, but 12-1 is not enough to get me involved.
SUMMARY: #2 CARVE, #9 TAPITURE and #7 BRONZO all seem to offer real value against a pace that's likely to be brutal on the favorites and some older knockers that don't have the punch they used to. From a pure value standpoint, you should probably leave GOLDENCENTS out of exotics, but I would say you don't want to be too cute chasing the huge score and keep him involved.
No comments:
Post a Comment