PACE OUTLOOK: OBVIOUSLY is entered, so that's probably all you need to know. He drew perfectly in post 2 with no speed to his inside and the only other potential pace factor, TOURIST, marooned out in post 12. I don't think anyone can go with OBVIOUSLY, however, so it's just a matter of how fast TOURIST can push him to go.
GENERAL OUTLOOK: It's probably OBVIOUSLY or bust here for the American cause as the Euros again brought a strong contingent. If he runs back to his 2013 form, or at least his Shoemaker Mile from this year, he may well run them all of their feet in smashing style. Otherwise, the Euros will inhale him and everyone else in the stretch. The rain complicates matters for OBVIOUSLY a bit, as he likely would benefit from rock hard turf.
1. Grand Arch (Velasquez/Lynch) 20-1: Looked like he would go right by WISE DAN in his last, but hung pretty bad. Even his best race ever is very unlikely to be good enough here.
2. Obviously (Talamo/D'Amato) 8-1: Without rain, I was prepared to bet on him. With rain, it seems exceedingly likely that the Euros will be too much for him to overcome.
3. Veda (Soumillon/Royer Dupre) 12-1: 3-year-old French filly hasn't done much wrong in six career starts. The other Euros will get more attention, but this hard luck filly seems worth a shot.
4. Mustajeeb (Smullen/Weld) 6-1: He hasn't done much wrong, either, but he's one Euro that I don't think is helped by the soft ground.
5. Toronado (Hughes/Hannon) 5-2: Multiple Group 1 winner is absolutely a deserving favorite here. In three starts this year, hasn't been beaten by more than a length. Should probably be no more than 2-1.
6. Tom's Tribute (Smith/Cassidy) 15-1: The Euros are much better than him with likely the same style. Can't see it.
7. Kaigun (Husbands/Casse) 20-1: Outclassed and outgunned.
8. Trade Storm (Spencer/Simcock) 12-1: Wasn't very good in Dubai earlier this year, but picked his game up with a few seconds in Britain and then a win in the Woodbine Mile over KAIGUN. Still, seems clearly outclassed here.
9. Anodin (Peslier/Head) 6-1: Winner of just 2-of-13 lifetime. Recently has been within 2 lengths of both KINGMAN and TORONADO, but there's really not much reason for me to think he can turn the tables.
10. Summer Front (Castellano/Clement) 30-1: This is one I move way up on softer turf as he has run no worse than second on off turf in his career, including the biggest speed figure he's ever posted. Christophe Clement wouldn't send him cross country unless he felt he had a real chance, either.
11. Sayaad (Leparoux/McLaughlin) 30-1: OBVIOUSLY will submarine any chance this one might have had — from this outside post, he'll have to go early, and that's game over.
12. Seek Again (Rosario/Mott) 6-1: Has had some tough trips in America and yet has two wins in graded stakes. He's not impossible, but it's likely that the Euros are just a lot better in this same odds range.
13. Tourist (Napravnik/Mott) 12-1: Again, OBVIOUSLY likely sinks any other speed horse, and breaking this wide is disastrous for this one.
14. Karakontie (Pesquier/Pease) 10-1: Won a Group 1 race in June, but has been severely off form since then. He has a sparking record on soft ground, however — 3-for-3 with two Group 1 wins — and is an intriguing option despite the wide post.
