2014 WOTHISM BC SPRINT PREVIEW

This is America, and we love our dirt sprints here. So, aside from the Classic, this is the one I'm most looking forward to.

PACE OUTLOOK: You're kidding, right? Again, this is America. We like our horses to go as fast as they can, as far as they can, as if their tails were on fire. That said, you generally don't see sprints at Santa Anita won by closers from out of the clouds. Even when the pace is fast, you'll typically see a frontrunner get away or a mid-pack runner emerge and win going away. The track looked fair on Friday, but this is still dirt, after all. There will basically be an avalanche of speed from the outside, and any horse that wants a chance on the inside probably needs to either drop out the back or get going themselves. This will be absolutely fascinating.

GENERAL OUTLOOK: SECRET CIRCLE is the tepid 9-2 morning line favorite, and that sounds about right. This thing is anyone's race. WIND FIRE is just about the only horse I would feel comfortable tossing in any sort of multi-race wager.

1. Seeking The Sherif (Madonado/Ellis) 20-1: Former claimer is in way too deep here, especially from the rail.

2. Indianapolis (Smith/Baffert) 12-1: Undefeated Derby prospect reminds of SECRET CIRCLE a year ago. I think he actually looked better than SECRET CIRCLE in their drill together a few weeks ago, and I can't get that image out of my head even though I know winning from this post with this step up in class will be a huge task.

3. Wind Fire (Spencer/D. Brown) 30-1: Going long on the dirt? Maybe! Sprinting? Nah.

4. Secret Circle (Garcia/Baffert) 9-2: Let's face it ... last year's Sprint was kind of weak. He beat LAUGH TRACK and GENTLEMEN'S BET, OK? He hasn't won in two starts since, and INDIANAPOLIS outworked him. I'll look elsewhere.

5. Private Zone (Pedroza/Velasquez) 6-1: Has seemingly settled into a good race-bad race cycle, and he's due for a bad race after a huge effort to win the Vosburgh over DADS CAPS and PALACE. Plus with all of the other speed outside, any bobble at the start means a certain demise.

6. Rich Tapestry (Doleuze/Chang) 5-1: He beat GOLDENCENTS and SECRET CIRCLE in his lone American start, but that was kind of a strange race with a small field. Working out a trip this time will be the big challenge, and in this wide open race, 5-1 seems too low.

7. Mico Margarita (Napravnik/Asmussen) 15-1: Her Sept. 28 victory at Remington puts him right there speed figure wise with the best in this race. WORK ALL WEEK has whipped him on three separate occasions, but the closing style of this one is intriguing enough to keep him in mind.

8. Palace (C. Velasquez/Rice) 6-1: I think he peaked earlier this year against generally inferior competition. The running style helps matters, but I doubt he'll be the same horse in California.

9. Salutos Amigos (Castellano/Jacobson) 6-1: David Jacobson has turned this horse into a machine since getting him earlier this year. He has posted six straight 100+ speed figures, and seven of his last eight. Once again, though, he couldn't even beat PALACE on three occasions, and I don't think he's good enough, so ...

10. Big Macher (T. Baze/Baltas) 12-1: His win in the Bing Crosby notwithstanding, I think he'll be better returning to dirt. That said, he's only won while on or within a neck of the lead, and he's not quick enough to be there today.

11. Bakken (Stevens/C. Brown) 10-1: Lightly raced potential monster here. He was 2-0 when he went to Santa Anita for the Grade 1 Malibu, where he finished a no excuse fifth. Then PALACE narrowly beat him after a six-month layoff before he won an optional claimer. The worry is that he hasn't won from off the pace and has two extremely fast horses immediately to his outside.

12. Fast Anna (Velazquez/Ritvo) 12-1: Speaking of monsters, Bob Baffert — the king of speed — commented last week about how damn fast this horse is. He reportedly said they ought to make him into a quarter horse. He worked 5/8 in :57 flat the other day, but he had to work hard late to do it. He'll likely get to the lead from out there because it's just about the only choice, but I don't see him lasting.

13. Work All Week (Geroux/Brueggemann) 10-1: Then again, maybe this horse will get the lead. He's undefeated — 7-for-7 — on the dirt in his career, but he is also sort of the B team in that he never even ran in a graded event until a Grade 3 score at Keeneland in his last race. From this post, he has a lot of work to do, and people like to bet on undefeated horses. I won't.

14. Bourbon Courage (Santana Jr./Gorder) 20-1: I love that they're finally shortening this horse up after banging him into tough races going long. He should have a big late kick and showed enough speed in his last to be on the pace of a :45.4 half mile, so if he can work out a mid-pack trip while they go :44 up front ... this could be good. I'd certainly much rather bet him than SALUTOS AMIGOS, for instance.

SYSTEM PLAYS: BAKKEN and WORK ALL WEEK are the morning line value plays. BOURBON COURAGE and RICH TAPESTRY are both close.

SUMMARY: INDIANAPOLIS, MICO MARGARITA, BAKKEN and BOURBON COURAGE are the horses I generally like, but make that a very weak feeling. Things feel all wrong for INDIANAPOLIS on the inside with so much speed outside, MICO MARGARITA feels outclassed, BAKKEN is in trouble if he gets cut off early, and BOURBON COURAGE will have a lot of horses to pass either inside or with a very wide trip. In fact, now when I look at it again, RICH TAPESTRY does hold a lot of appeal as a horse with some tactical speed in a decent spot with slower early runners to his outside. This is a tough one.

2014 WOTHISM BC TURF PREVIEW

PACE OUTLOOK: The pace should be slow, and that might be the only hope the American have — that a horse like IMAGINING can pull a coup like LITTLE MIKE a few years back. On the other hand, the Europeans are used to slowly run races and then powering home, so I would almost say the pace doesn't matter here.

GENERAL OUTLOOK: It's all about the Euros: current Euros and former Euros. The defection of MAGICIAN sucks, but it doesn't change the fact that anything other than a win from a European or former European MAIN SEQUENCE would be a shocker. Throw in the European style of training that HARDEST CORE gets and it seems any true American horse is juuuust about hopeless.

1. Telescope (Moore/Stoute) 4-1: If Ryan Moore doesn't get him stopped, it's between him and FLINTSHIRE. These two are just head and shoulders above all others.

2. Twilight Eclipse (Castellano/Albertrani) 12-1: Less than a length back in his last three races, but always to MAIN SEQUENCE and once to IMAGINING. I think he'll be a better bet at the likely odds than MAIN SEQUENCE, but I'd still rather bet ...

3. Imagining (Rosario/McGaughey) 12-1: I said it before — the best American hope is for IMAGINING to get away on the lead, relax, and have enough left to hold off the onslaught at the end.

4. Brown Panther (Kingscote/Dascombe) 8-1: This race actually feels too short for him. I question whether he has the requisite kick at this distance, and I also don't like how he was redirected here after his late scratch at Woodbine two weekends ago.

5. Hangover Kid (Lezcano/Servis) 30-1: No way.

6. Finnegans Wake (Talamo/Miller) 30-1: The absolute best race of his life might put him in the superfecta. That's about it.

7. Flintshire (Guyon/Fabre) 7-2: He has three seconds in four races in 2014. They have been by 2 lengths to TREVE, 1.5 lengths to RULER OF THE WORLD, and 2 lengths to CIRRUS DES AIGLES. These are all *fantastic* horses. The only reason for pause is that his last race was the Arc de Triomphe, and the Breeders' Cup Turf is very much an afterthought compared to that $6.2 million race. So if he was fully cranked for that one, ran his heart out to be second, then had to fly to California four weeks later ... hmm.

9. Hardest Core (Vaz/Graham) 10-1: Just a fascinating horse but one that, in my estimation, got really lucky that nobody else showed up in the Arlington Million. He has a track record of success going long-ish on the grass, but his wins in races at 1 1/4 miles or longer have been aided by being on a slow pace. That could happen again here, no doubt, but he'd have to be a much bigger price.

10. Star Spangled Heat (Nakatani/Abrams) 30-1: If this horse wins, I will demand the immediate inspection of his bloodstream.

11. Chicquita (Dettori/O'Brien) 8-1: This filly sold for $8 million last November. Yes, $8 million. She then didn't run until Sept. 14, finishing a close 2nd in a Group 2 for females. Then she was a well-beaten 15th in the Arc on Oct. 5. And then, most recently, she was 3rd on Oct. 18. This will be her third race in four weeks and her fourth race in seven weeks. On the plus side, she won the Group 1 Irish Oaks in July 2013. There are just far too many questions with this one at a somewhat short price.

12. Main Sequence (Velasquez/Motion) 6-1: Undefeated in America this year, BROWN PANTHER defeated him by 13 lengths last summer, and he was defeated by the same margin in his last start in Europe last fall. Additionally, he's been winning by narrow margins here, so it's not as if he's head and shoulders the best. This is perhaps the worst horse to bet in the field.

13. Big John B (Smith/D'Amato) 20-1: Left himself way too much to do last time and was running in a $40k claimer as recently as May. Nope.

SUMMARY: I primarily like TELESCOPE because it feels like he's been pointed to this race rather than just tossed in as an afterthought like FLINTSHIRE. I could see including IMAGINING in exotics with these two with the hope that he gets brave on the lead.

2014 WOTHISM BC JUVENILE PREVIEW

PACE OUTLOOK: Speed kills. Basically every horse here seemingly wants to be on or very near the lead. I think there are a few who could potentially take it all the way, but coming from off the pace, if possible, seems preferred.

GENERAL OUTLOOK: The departure of AMERICAN PHAROAH was saddening, but it made this race a bit more wide open-seeming, so that's not all bad.

1. Calculator (TrujilloMiller) 10-1: Running second to AMERICAN PHAROAH is nothing to sniff at, but the fact remains that this horse has never won a race, period.

2. Private Prospect (Campbell/Campbell) 20-1: Doesn't seem to fit at all here.

3. Blue Dancer (Walcott/Tracy) 30-1: From Northlands to Assiniboia to Hastings to ... the Breeders' Cup. No way.

4. The Great War (Moore/O'Brien) 10-1: Reminds me very much of DECLARATION OF WAR last year and has been successful closing on the turf at sprint distances. This $1 million horse has a good shot in my eyes.

6. Lucky Player (Santana Jr./Asmussen) 20-1: Won his last while running slow on the lead early. That won't happen today.

7. Texas Red (Desormeaux/Desormeaux) 15-1: Displayed nice kick late in the Frontrunner to finish third despite the slow pace. AMERICAN PHAROAH was running away from everyone but this one, as he was fourish lengths back all the way around. Again, with a hotter pace, this could be a nice play, but I don't know that the upside is there. He may just be a grinder and nothing more.

8. Souper Colossal (Lopez/Plesa) 8-1: The bullet work on Oct. 27 and undefeated record look great. The layoff since Aug. 31 and need for the lead don't look as great. He should be better the longer he goes, and he has overcome trouble (stumbled start) in the past. He doesn't look bad at all.

9. Carpe Diem (Velasquez/Pletcher) 3-1: His Breeders' Futurity win didn't do much for me as it was a slow pace. With that said, it was a contested pace, and his breeding fits here.

10. Mr. Z (Smith/Lukas) 15-1: Still winless since breaking his maiden, but he has three second-place finishes in stakes ranging from Grade 1 to 2 and 3. But these have been well-beaten seconds, and the addition of blinkers here scares me with the pace.

11. One Lucky Dane (Bejarano/Baffert) 8-1: Broke through with a nine-length win in his last. Did it all the way on the front end, though, and he doesn't appear quick enough to do that here. Betting against Baffert in baby races is tough, but I will here.

12. Daredevil (Castellano/Pletcher) 5-2: His Champagne win was beyond dominant. He went fast, he went wide, he was on the lead ... and it didn't matter. Now he has to prove it on a fast track at a short price. One interesting aspect of this is that Johnny V ended up on CARPE DIEM ... he had ridden both of these in their first starts, but they both ran on Oct. 4 and he went to Keeneland on CARPE DIEM. Now, it's likely that this wasn't an either-or decision — there were more Grade 1s at Keeneland that day, for instance — but it's mildly curious nonetheless.

13. Upstart (J. Ortiz/Violette) 6-1: This is your proven closing horse as he has run back-to-back 100+ speed figures while coming from off the pace in both a fast and slow race. He feels right, but if he couldn't get past DAREDEVIL last time with a generally perfect setup ... why should this time be any different?

SUMMARY: I think THE GREAT WAR fits pretty well here. SOUPER COLOSSAL and CARPE DIEM are the other two I would bet — even though they're likely pace factors, their potential seems the most unlimited.

2014 WOTHISM BC TURF SPRINT PREVIEW

PACE OUTLOOK: In a field this large, the pace will almost always be quick. Races down the hill are almost always quick, too. There will be no free lunch here.

GENERAL OUTLOOK: This thing is wide open. 9-2 is the lowest price on the morning line, and at first blush, it seems like literally any horse in the field has a good shot. The conventional wisdom is that horses with previous experience down the hill have a big advantage, and I can't discount that, but I think that's so well-known that I would like to find a horse without that experience.

1. Reneesgotzip (Moldonado/Miller) 5-1: Has been second and third in the past two editions of this race. There's no real reason to think she can't win without MIZDIRECTION to deal with this year.

2. Silentio (Espinoza/G. Madnella) 8-1: Shortens up from mostly mile events for this one, and I have to wonder if he'll get too far back early. He'll be coming late but I think he'll have too much work to do.

3. Sweet Swap (Nakatani/Sadler) 12-1: Is a veteran down the hill coming in off of a Grade 3 win. Definitely a cut below on class here, however.

4. Tightend Touchdown (Castellano/Servis) 8-1: Second last year, but he hasn't shown the same early zip in his races this year. I'll pass.

5. Ambitious Brew (Smith/M. Jones) 12-1: I've heard this one bandied about a bit in this spot, but he doesn't seem too special to me. The Eddie D was a clear cut below the competition here, and he couldn't close the deal in that one.

6. Bobby's Kitten (Rosario/C. Brown) 10-1: This seems like the ideal race for him. He ran well in his last at Woodbine against older, and Brown is tough off the layoff. I like him here.

7. Marchman (Desormeaux/Desormeaux) 12-1: Well beaten by NO NAY NEVER in his last, and he frankly may have peaked earlier this year. I've backed him a few times in a row now, but I'll jump off of his train here.

8. Something Extra (Da Silva/G. Cox) 20-1: His last race at this distance was one of his worst, but Kentucky Downs plays long at the 6.5 furlong distance, whereas it plays more like 6 furlongs at Santa Anita. SOMETHING EXTRA should like the "shortening" here and is tempting at a price.

10. Home Run Kitten (Talamo/Hofmans) 12-1: Won the Eddie D last out, but has to deal with even more traffic and much more class in this race. I'll play against.

11. Undrafted (Velasquez/Ward) 8-1: Extremely nice win in the Jaipur earlier this year to collar MARCHMAN late; then nearly won a Group 1 at Newmarket, and then was a half-length back in his last at Kentucky Downs. Probably the class of the field and should improve second off the layoff.

12. Dimension (Moore/Murphy) 12-1: Did beat UNDRAFTED last out, but being at Kentucky Downs, that's just hard form to transfer elsewhere.

13. Caspar Netscher (Smullen/Simcock) 10-1: Wheeling back on short rest here and running his third race in four weeks. Wasn't very good in group races overseas, though, so you have to wonder if the Nearctic win was just a function of lesser competition than he'll see here.

14. No Nay Never (Dettori/Ward) 9-2: The Woodford win was downright dominant. It says he only won by half a length, but he was never losing that race. A group 1 winner in France last year, he nearly won the Swale on dirt here in March, and that was the only loss in his career. I'll be a bit surprised if he's not more like 2-1 or 3-1.

15. Ageless (Leparoux/Delacour) 20-1: It would be pretty easy to make a case for this one at this price. If it holds, add this one to the list!

SYSTEM PLAYS: 4-8-13-15 ... TIGHTEND TOUCHDOWN-SOMETHING EXTRA-CASPER NETSCHER-AGELESS. I will say, however, that I believe this is mostly a function of NO NAY NEVER being underrated per the system.

GENERAL OUTLOOK: Well, RENEESGOTZIP is hard to bet against, but I guess I also wouldn't bet on her at this point. I like BOBBY'S KITTEN, UNDRAFTED and NO NAY NEVER the most, while SOMETHING EXTRA and AGELESS seem to just be value plays at square prices. This does have the feeling, however, of a "wide open" race that ends up going chalk-chalk and pays $8 on the winning favorite.

2014 WOTHISM BC DISTAFF PREVIEW

This race lacks some of the top-tier sizzle it has had in the past few years — there's no ROYAL DELTA vs. BEHOLDER vs. PRINCESS OF SYLMAR showdown — but it's plenty satiating for a Friday night.

PACE OUTLOOK: On the quick side of moderate. CLOSE HATCHES will likely be hustled to get good position out of the 11 hole, and TIZ MIDNIGHT will be going from the 2 hole. It is, of course, possible that both hook up and even IOTAPA goes hard from post 3, but I think TIZ MIDNIGHT is on a generally clear early lead with only mild pressure from IOTAPA and CLOSE HATCHES. The X factor here is UNTAPABLE, and I'll explain why in a bit.

GENERAL OUTLOOK: Do you like balloons and cake on Halloween? I think this race will deliver some big prices. I am pretty solidly against UNTAPABLE and IOTAPA, and even CLOSE HATCHES seems to on a downward form cycle here — let's not forget ROYAL DELTA, Bill Mott's last great filly to suddenly take a turn for the worse, and that was it for her. DON'T TELL SOPHIA and BELLE GALLANTEY don't do a lot for me. This should be fun.

1. L'Armour de Ma Vie (Guyon/Brandt) 15-1: Has shown some affinity for artificial surfaces in the past, but has never run on dirt and doesn't seem to be best on the surface. I'm not even sure I would take her on turf against this bunch. 50-1 seems like the right price here.

2. Tiz Midnight (Espinoza/Baffert) 10-1: Generally looked atrocious in her last work. Has never been worse than third in seven starts as she's advanced up the class ladder, but she's also never went further than 1 1/16 miles and doesn't fit the profile of wanting to that far. I think there's enough pressure on her from IOTAPA and CLOSE HATCHES that she melts on the far turn.

3. Iotapa (Talamo/Sadler) 6-1: Bled in her last race. The works since have been solid enough, but not quite what she was doing before. I think she'll drift up in the betting as word is likely out on this one, and even then, she won't have my money. Her 10-length win in the Grade 1 Vanity earlier this year was probably the best race she'll ever run.

4. Belle Gallantey (J. Ortiz/Rodriguez) 6-1: A tricky sort. She clearly benefited from a dawdling pace in her last race, as she opened up 2.5 lengths by the first call and ultimately won by 8 over STOP CHARGING MARIA. She also walked on the lead in the Delaware Handicap, and inbetween, she threw a clunker in the slop at Saratoga. She's no joke, but it's hard to view any of those races as truly representative efforts of what she'll do Friday. Instead, I'll go back to the Ogden Phipps on June 7, when CLOSE HATCHES beat fifth-place BELLE GALLANTEY by all of 1.75 lengths. That effort was good, but not good enough to win this race. So if she can't walk on the lead, can she win? I don't think so.

5. Unbridled Forever (Velasquez/Stewart) 20-1: I bet this horse intermittently throughout the year, and she still hasn't won since January 18. She just doesn't seem quite good enough here, although perhaps you could make the case she's ready to fire second off the layoff.

6. Stanwyck (Nakatani/Shirreffs) 20-1: I honestly don't know if STANWYCK can win this race. I'd like to think so, but I don't know that they'll be going fast enough up front to counteract the generally speed favoring nature of the strip. With that said, one my strongest opinions of the weekend is that STANWYCK will finish in the top 3. Her fourth-place finish last time out was compromised by a slow pace, and her two prior runs were potentially compromised by the mud. Dial it back to earlier this year at Santa Anita and she was third by half a length to IOTAPA in the Santa Margarita on March 15. She was third behind a slow paced IOTAPA in the Santa Maria on February 15. And she started the year second by a head in the Pasadena. With enough pace and a dry track, I am all but certain she will outrun her odds. Again, I'm not sure she's good enough to win, but she will be coming late, and Nakatani is skilled with closers.

7. Don't Tell Sophia (Rocco Jr./Sims) 5-1: I'm not sure what to do with the Spinster. The pace was slow, but DON'T TELL SOPHIA had rallied from 10 lengths back to take the lead at the top of the stretch. It was impressive, but it was also the best race she has ever run. She has won more than STANWYCK, but she also hasn't faced quite the competition that STANWYCK has. 5-1 seems like a serious underlay on this track in particular, especially given a so-so workout.

8. Valiant Emilia (Bejarano/G. Mandella) 20-1: Is she good enough? Probably not. But here again, given my lack of interest in some of the favorites in this race, this Peruvian entrant may be worth a shot. She gets great connections in Mandella and Bejarano, and her workouts have been good enough, so ... why not?

9. Ria Antonia (Lopez/Amoss) 15-1: She's the buzz horse all of a sudden after people shit on her campaign the rest of the year. I was high on her back in the spring, and she obviously didn't deliver ... in fact, she has only crossed the wire first in one of her 13 races (her BC win last year was via DQ). Disposing of CLOSE HATCHES was nice, but again, that was just such a weird race in every way that I'm drawing a line through it. That said, she has run races that would be halfway competitive with these, so I don't mind her.

10. Untapable (Napravnik/Asmussen) 5-2: She has easily been the best three-year-old filly this year. But after finishing the month of June with an unblemished record and never winning by less than four lengths, she tried the Haskell and was trounced (not much shame there), and then was all-out to beat SWEET REASON around two turns (not SWEET REASON's bread and butter at all). Some folks have raved about her workouts — "jaw-dropping" was used — but I truly felt like she looked far too aggressive early. She has a wide post, she didn't run a step last year at Santa Anita, and she may be a pace factor if she's anywhere near as aggressive as she was in her work. Why would you want to bet on that at 5-2 or likely less?

11. Close Hatches (Rosario/Mott) 3-1: I've been a fan of this filly since the beginning and backed her in almost every one of her nine wins (in 13 tries). But that last race was just so ... peculiar and bad. Mott said that when fillies and mares are done running, they are DONE RUNNING (he said this about ROYAL DELTA in particular), and I can't help but wonder if she's just done at this point.

SYSTEM PLAYS: NONE! I have no system plays on this race, which generally means the computer thinks the morning line is pretty much fair. The closest (i.e. most expected value, even though it's still negative) to being plays are (in order):

CLOSE HATCHES 3-1

UNTAPABLE 5-2

BELLE GALLANTEY 6-1

RIA ANTONIA 15-1

SUMMARY: All aboard the STANWYCK express. I don't mind VALIANT EMILIA, obviously, and RIA ANTONIA seems OK, but I want to structure my plays on this race around STANWYCK running top 3. I will definitely play against L'AMOUR DE MA VIE, TIZ MIDNIGHT and IOTAPA, so I could see wheeling STANWYCK in all spots with the remaining runners.

2014 WOTHISM BC FILLY & MARE SPRINT PREVIEW

I have a reasonably strong opinion in this one that I'll try not to let cloud my judgment too much.

PACE OUTLOOK: There ain't much. STONETASTIC moves up by default because she may very well be the only one going. On the other hand, LEIGH COURT was on the lead at almost all calls of her past nine races before falling four lengths back early in her last. Either way, there are enough horses that like to be close to the pace that I don't think we're talking about a SLOW race — more likely just "average."

GENERAL OUTLOOK: OK, fine. I like SWEET REASON HERE. In one-turn miles or seven furlong races, she has been dominant. She faces tougher here than she has in three-year-old only races, but as long as STONETASTIC doesn't totally steal this race, I think SWEET REASON is a very likely winner.

1. Sweet Reason (I. Ortiz/Gyarmati) 9-2: Cat's out of the bag here. I like her, period.

2. Little Alexis (Rosario/Green) 15-1: She's bred to go longer, so while the cutback may be helpful here ... I don't really see it.

3. Stonetastic (Lopez/Breen) 8-1: Her Prioress win was really impressive, but did she actually beat anyone there? I think a more likely run is her last at Keeneland, where she was beaten by LEIGH COURT and SOUTHERN HONEY when pressed by the prior.

4. Thank You Marylou (Velasquez/Maker) 20-1: Wheeling back on two weeks rest here after getting beaten by 10 lengths in the Raven Run. That very well may have been a career-best effort, but expecting her to repeat that, if that was even good enough, again after flying cross country seems like stretch.

5. Artemis Agrotera (J. Ortiz/Hushion) 3-1: Absolutely lost contact with the field in the Gallant Bloom before coming flying late. I would love to know what happened between the Acorn, when she was beaten by 14 lengths on June 7 (by Sweet Reason), and an option claimer on July 23, when she ran a 104 speed fig on the lead. I don't trust this horse and am not sure she has beaten much in her last three. I'll pass at 3-1.

6. Leigh Court (G. Boulanger/Carroll) 4-1: The question with this one is which horse shows up. Does she sit off the pace like she did in her last, her first on dirt in 10 starts, or is she the speed horse she had been on turf and synthetic in the previous eight starts? I'm not willing to bet on what she does here.

7. Judy The Beauty (Smith/Ward) 5-2: Hasn't run since Aug. 14, and before that, hadn't run since May 3. She ran her lifetime best race at Santa Anita last fall when second to GROUPIE DOLL, but she has only won once on dirt. That seems like a problem when we're talking about odds of 5-2. And she worked on the turf for her last work. With that said, it's hard to see her not bringing her A game, so don't try to get too cute with exotics here.

8. Better Lucky (Castellano/Albertrani) 15-1: This all-surface performer beat the likes of GRACE HALL and MY MISS AURELIA on dirt three back before starting slow two back and nearly beating DAY AT THE SPA on good turf in her last. I would generally say she's unlikely to get the pace she needs here, but she's the true late runner I like the most.

9. Living The Life (Bejarano/G. Mandella) 12-1: Has never run on the dirt, but has won two straight tries on the synthetic since coming to America. I would generally think she won't like the dirt, and the works have been kind of slow ... but that has been true on both dirt and synthetic. Too many questions in this field.

10. Southern Honey (Laparoux/Arnold) 20-1: Consistent performer who won the Grade 3 Winning Colors earlier this year but has been beaten by SWEET REASON, LITTLE ALEXIS, LEIGH COURT and STONETASTIC since. I'll pass on the win end.

SYSTEM PLAYS: The system really likes BETTER LUCKY. THANK YOU MARYLOU and SOUTHERN HONEY are close, and the general system feel is that this race is too wide open for anyone to be less than 4-1.

SUMMARY: I don't really disagree with the system here, but I still have that gut feeling that SWEET REASON is really, really good at one-turn races despite not having the speed figures to outright say it. I do also like BETTER LUCKY, and may play exotics with those two on top and the field on bottom.

2014 WOTHISM FILLY & MARE TURF PREVIEW

This is potentially the best chance for an American horse to win a turf race at this year's Breeders' Cup. Let's get right to it.

PACE OUTLOOK: DAYATTHESPA figures to take them as long as far as she can, and frankly, without much pace pressure, that could be all the way. We could see PARRANDA or RUSTY SLIPPER sent from their outside posts, but the pace seems slow regardless.

GENERAL OUTLOOK: The Euros seem vulnerable here. They're all under 8-1, and I certainly can't get behind any of them at those prices. This is definitely the B team from Europe, and that even includes DANK, who has been sidelined since June.

1. Abaco (J. Ortiz/McGaughey) 15-1: Made a nice run in the Flower Bowl to finish 1.25 lengths back of STEPHANIE'S KITTEN. She hasn't won a Grade 1 yet, but she hasn't missed by much, and 15-1 seems like a gift.

2. Just The Judge (Spencer/Hills) 5-1: The EP Taylor was reallllly slow early. 1:16.4 for six furlongs is barely a gallop. I don't expect this race to be *that* slow, and so I would look back to the Beverly D for a more representative effort. There, she was a neck behind STEPHANIE'S KITTEN. I think she'll be close, but doesn't strike me as brilliant enough to win here.

3. Dank (Moore/Stoute) 5-2: Her win here last year was super impressive, but she came into that one riding a two-race win streak and she had been 3-for-4 in 2013 entering the race. This year, she has finished third and fifth, beaten by 8 and 10 lengths, respectively. At 5-2, there are plenty of other options.

4. Dayatthespa (Castellano/C. Brown) 8-1: It's all about the distance here. Can she get it? The pedigree leans on the no side of the fence, but she has won at 1 1/8 (with the benefit of a slow pace). Her last effort was her best to date. I would like better than 8-1, but she's a clear must include no matter what you decide on the win end.

5. Secret Gesture (Smullen/Beckett) 6-1: Has typically run longer than 1 1/4 miles, but she has run second and third in a couple Grade 1's in Europe, so that would theoretically be plenty good to win here in America. She has also run better on good ground than soft or heavy (in general) so that bodes well. Of the Euro contingent, this is the one I fancy most (see what I did there? FANCY).

6. Fiesolana (Billy Lee/McCreery) 8-1: This one might be interesting at a mile, but 1 1/4 seems too ambitious at this stage of her career.

7. Emollient (Napravnik/Mott) 12-1: When this one has come up against the true top class fillies and mares from out East, she has disappointed fairly consistently. Maybe she just hates being out East. She ran a very nice race here last year, but I can't shake the feeling that she's just a cut below no matter what happens here.

8. Irish Mission (Rosario/Clement) 20-1: In a field of horses with plenty of distance concerns, this one seems to relish it. Closed into a crawling pace last out in the Rodeo Drive, so if she gets more to run at this time ... worth a shot at 20-1.

9. Parranda (Trujillo/Hollendorfer) 20-1: Wasn't good enough on that aforementioned crawling pace last time and seems like nothing more than a solid Grade 3 performer. That's not good enough here.

10. Stephanie's Kitten (Velasquez/C. Brown) 3-1: We all wondered if she had lost a step this year after she hadn't shown her prior early pace, but she was only a couple lengths off of a slow-ish pace in the Flower Bowl, which she powered by to win with ease in her last. She's obviously very good and a real threat to win, but the fact remains that she has only won once this year and may be over the top here. I'll pass at this price.

11. Rusty Slipper (Gryder/Motion) 20-1: I would dismiss her immediately if she wasn't trained by Graham Motion, who I would say is typically fairly conservative with placing his horses. She has steadily improved in her three starts since coming back from a year-plus layoff in June, but the water is much deeper here.

SYSTEM PLAYS: Very small plays on both DAYATTHESPA and ABACO. Nobody else is close.

SUMMARY: DAYATTHESPA, ABACO, SECRET GESTURE AND IRISH MISSION look pretty good to me here. DANK and STEPHANIE'S KITTEN both scare me a bit, but they're obvious plays against at low prices.

2014 WOTHISM JUVENILE FILLIES TURF PREVIEW

JUVENILES. And not just juveniles, JUVENILE FILLIES.

I'll start by saying that if you're inclined to take your children trick or treating on Halloween (not sure if I am so inclined or not yet), you want to aim to get out the door after the Dirt Mile and be back before the Distaff.

With that disclaimer, let's go:

PACE OUTLOOK: Kind of slow! I could see someone stealing this race on the front end.

GENERAL OUTLOOK: Whereas the Euros seem destined to dominate the boys half of this event, the homeland has a chance of winning here. SUNSET GLOW has demonstrated versatility to be on the lead or just off it, and even went to England earlier this year to finish second in the Group 3 Albany. Beyond that, though ... Euros.

1. Partisan Politics (Castellano/Brown) 15-1: Shortening up to a mile here doesn't seem like the best for her. Could catch a piece if they fly early.

2. Osalia (Dettori/Hannon) 5-1: Only beaten a length in a group 1 in Ireland two back, she would otherwise enter having won four straight at distances from 6-7 furlongs. She should like the stretch out to a mile and is likely a deserving favorite; the only worry is that if it's far enough. And frankly, that worry is large enough to me to play against.

3. Sunset Glow (Espinoza/Ward) 7-2: In her defeat in England, the jockey dropped the whip. Might that have made the difference? Perhaps! Beyond that blemish, she has done absolutely nothing wrong and should be even better at a mile than she has been at shorter distances. The deserving favorite, and yet ... I don't think anyone should be 7-2 in this race. This sucker feels too wide open for such a short price.

4. Lady Eli (I. Ortiz/Brown) 6-1: Overcame a ton of trouble winning her first, and then won the slowly run Miss Grillo with ease in her second to enter this one undefeated. But the breeding is suspect, and the price seems low for a filly who hasn't beaten much.

5. Isabella Sings (Velasquez/Pletcher) 12-1: This one could be the downfall of SUNSET GLOW. A burner who's very likely to be the leader by the second call, she ran :46.4 on yielding! turf at Woodbine before giving in late. You could talk me into 12-1 on this one being a better bet than SUNSET GLOW at 7-2.

6. Sivoliere (Stevens/Brown) 12-1: This French import seems to hate soft ground ... fortunately, that won't be an issue at Santa Anita! Getting Gary Stevens on might normally be an upgrade, but I'm leery of trusting a rusty Stevens here. It's literally his first race back. I still like this horse, but what might have been a slam dunk play becomes a meek recommendation.

7. Rainha Da Bateria (Rosario/Motion) 12-1: Seems eligible for another step forward here and at a likely huge price, I would kick myself for not having her.

8. Nicky's Brown Miss (Torres/Capilupi) 20-1: Doesn't seem at all competitive.

9. Lady Zuzu (Leparoux/Lukas) 15-1: Lost a maiden turf sprint, jumped into the Grade 1 Spinaway on a sloppy track, then won by a ton in a Keeneland maiden. This is a $1.225 million horse, so the question is whether she belongs here or if the owners are trying to force something that should come more organically. Since she showed pace in her last and then drew off, I am somewhat inclined to use her.

10. Quality Rocks (Lezcano/Mott) 20-1: RAINHA DA BATERIA ran right by her in the Jessamine. Would need to move way up to compete here, and I don't see it.

11. Conquest Harlanate (Husbands/Casse) 10-1: Got the perfect pace setup in the aforementioned Natalma at Woodbine on yielding turf, putting her at 2-for-2 on turf entering this race. And she did that on yielding turf, which is intriguing because the pedigree would indicate that firmer ground (even dirt) would be better.

12. Tammy The Torpedo (Bejarano/Brown) 12-1: The favorite in the bizarrely run Miss Grillo, she ran third. Probably needs more pace than she'll get here.

13. Prize Exhibit (Spencer/Osborne) 20-1: Appears to be clearly a cut below the better Euros in this race.

14. Qualify (Moore/O'Brien) 5-1: Won a Group 3 in Ireland last out, and finished within three lengths of the winner in Group 1 and Group 2 tries in her two starts before that at 7 furlongs. An extra furlong should help here, but she'll have to overcome the outside post. I'd be inclined to play against this one at a short price.

SUMMARY: So, uh, did I actually say I liked every horse in the field or did it just feel that way? #5 ISABELLA SINGS, #6 SIVOLIERE, #7 RAINHA DA BATERIA, #9 LADY ZUZU AND #11 CONQUEST HARLANATE are the five that stick out to me. I can live with five. I do like SIVOLIERE the most, followed by CONQUEST HARLANATE, then RAINHA DA BATERIA, then LADY ZUZU, and then ISABELLA SINGS. Do with that what you will.

2014 WOTHISM BC CLASSIC PREVIEW

If you're reading along as I post this one-by-one, I apologize for jumping ahead. But, then again, let's be real: we're all excited for the main event!

One of the most difficult parts of handicapping an event like this is removing fandom from the equation. With these big name horses that we all see and talk about all year, it's easy to get attached to one as "your horse." MORENO, for instance, still holds a soft spot in my heart for his gutsy run in filling out the Travers exacta last year. PRAYER FOR RELIEF is always game, and he's filled out some nice exotics in the past. 

But this is the Breeders' Cup Classic, and this is the 2014 Wothism Breeders' Cup Classic Preview. I want to win money *today*, not tell you about money I've won in the past (of course, it's too late for that). Let's roll:

PACE OUTLOOK: Fast to blistering. BAYERN and MORENO are going to ruin each other on the front end. MORENO hasn't been competitive if he hasn't been on the lead at the second call, nor has BAYERN. Taking back is simply not an option for either one of these horses. CIGAR STREET is in the 2 hole and also hasn't won a race where he's more than a half-length off the lead at the second call. They all have to go.

GENERAL OUTLOOK: I can't really knock SHARED BELIEF. Who could?!? He has answered every question, even a question that should never be asked (can you win while being grossly floated 8 wide in the first turn?). But. But! Let's take a closer look at the horses he has beaten: CANDY BOY. TOAST OF NEW YORK. FOOTBRIDGE. IMPERATIVE. All of those horses are at least 12-1 on the morning line here. The water gets significantly deeper here, and he has to go 1.25 miles, and it's on a surface at Santa Anita that he didn't seem to get over all that well last time. He's 9/5 on the morning line, but I would be pretty surprised if he wasn't even money by post time. I will look to play against.

1. Prayer for Relief (I. Ortiz/Romans) 30-1: Has always been just a cut below the best. His running style is what I want to see in this race, however, as he should sit in that second tier of horses and come moving late. He has long odds for a reason, though, and there's probably something to be said about John Velazquez opting for CIGAR STREET over PRAYER FOR RELIEF. In the end, I think the 1 1/4 is the backbreaker for me, but he's certainly a must-use in exotics at a big price.

2. Cigar Street (Velasquez/Mott) 12-1: He'll be bet down from this morning line, but I don't understand it much at all. He appears to need to be on the pace; if he can win from on it, he has to show us something new. And as the probable 4th choice? I'd much rather have PRAYER FOR RELIEF.

3. Imperative (Dettori/Papaprodromou) 30-1: Has won 3 of 19 starts lifetime. Has been soundly beaten by SHARED BELIEF, FOOTBRIDGE, TOAST OF NEW YORK and MAJESTIC HARBOR in his last four starts. Very tough to see this one.

4. Moreno (Castellano/Guillot) 20-1: Trainer Eric Guillot has always sworn up and down that 1 1/4 is MORENO's best distance, but the statistics just don't show that. He didn't run his race at all last year at the Breeders' Cup as he contested the lead early but was already in seventh after three quarters in 1:10.2. This is another hard trying horse that has only 3 wins in 22 starts and if he can get away with 1:11 and change, he might be tough to catch, but it's just really hard to see that happening against this field at this level.

5. V.E. Day (Talamo/Jerkens) 20-1: His trainer initially said he didn't plan to run here, only he changed course because the owners said they wanted to take a shot. That's a bad sign. Worse is that he could barely reel in WICKED STRONG in the Travers after they flew early in one of the weirdest run races you'll ever see. At Santa Anita, that kind of collapse will favor someone mid-pack, not someone from the clouds.

6. Shared Belief (Smith/Hollendorfer) 9-5: His ridiculously good Pacific Classic notwithstanding, other horses in this field have run faster races on dirt. BAYERN is obvious, but even beyond BAYERN's pace-aided triumphs, other horses have run faster than SHARED BELIEF on dirt. He went 1 1/4 on the fake stuff and if he runs back to that, he wins with relative ease. But he has to prove that to me to bet on him against a field like this at even money.

7. Bayern (Garcia/Baffert) 6-1: It's GAME ON DUDE all over again. If he has a clear lead, he will win. If he doesn't, he won't. If MORENO and CIGAR STREET break poorly, then BAYERN might have a chance. Otherwise, I simply cannot see it.

8. Zivo (Lezcano/Brown) 15-1: Broke through with a smashing Suburban win in July at 1 1/4 miles, then got beat by 1.75 lengths to TONALIST while being steadied to avoid the fallen WICKED STRONG in the Jockey Club Gold Cup in September. My initial reaction to this horse was that his style won't translate well to Santa Anita, but fast pace or slow pace, he's brought the goods. On the other hand, he looks a lot like PRAYER FOR RELIEF at lower odds. Hmm.

9. Toast of New York (Spencer/Osborne) 12-1: Can he run on dirt? After giving SHARED BELIEF a real scare on synthetic at Del Mar, it's obvious he has enough class to compete at this level despite the uninspiring pedigree. But ... my answer is no, he can't run on dirt.

10. Footbridge (Bejarano/Harty) 30-1: DAMN THIS HORSE. I've been on his train at long odds in his last two starts, and he ran well to finish third behind SHARED BELIEF, 2.5 lengths back, in the Awesome Again. Will the extra quarter mile make a difference? Well, he did win at this distance back on April 10 in a $40k optional claimer. Bejarano was on for that ride, and he's back on today. He was bred to win at this distance. Worth a shot.

11. Tonalist (Rosario/Clement) 5-1: Speaking of horses bred to win classic events, TONALIST just picked up his second grade 1 of the year while employing a new closing style with blinkers off in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. If you take the hype out of the equation, there's not much separating TONALIST and SHARED BELIEF in my eyes. The worries are the poor workout and the new closing style, which may not play well at Santa Anita. But ... at 5-1 vs. 9-5, you know who I'd be backing.

12. Candy Boy (Nakatani/Sadler) 20-1: CALIFORNIA CHROME and SHARED BELIEF have been beating him like a drum dating back to last year. He couldn't beat the nearly fallen TAPITURE in the West Virginia Derby, so there's little reason to think he could step way up and win here.

13. California Chrome (Espinoza/Sherman) 4-1: Nothing about the Pennsylvania Derby was set up right for him: The way he was working going into the race, the way he had to travel across the country, the way he was inside of horses, the way BAYERN walked on the lead. It was a disaster. Draw a line through it. From there, you start looking back to his earlier races, and the Belmont was actually not a bad race given the trouble he had, the injury and the distance. He looked so good in his workout and I think the outside post gives him the ideal position to sit off of the pace in the clear and pounce when everyone starts fading up front. What's rough, of course, is that he won the Derby and Preakness, so you have to wonder how much money he'll attract. Gulp.

14. Majestic Harbor (Baze/McCarthy) 20-1: He romped on this track at this distance on June 28, but that was about the weirdest race you'll ever see with the field wildly strung out. He has been soundly beaten by SHARED BELIEF, TOAST OF NEW YORK, IMPERATIVE and FOOTBRIDGE since. I will pass.

SYSTEM PLAYS: Three horses make the cut in this event, and I can see why with all three:

MORENO 20-1: In my mind, MORENO is BAYERN without the hype. Both should be about 12-1 per my system, so MORENO is a solid overlay.

PRAYER FOR RELIEF 30-1: Again, I pretty much agree here. The system says 25-1 is fair on PRAYER FOR RELIEF, and that seems correct — he needs things to break the right way, but he's consistent enough that he'll be in the mix.

ZIVO 15-1: I have him at 13-1, so this is a small play, but a play nonetheless. I'm definitely conflicted but certainly agree he should be in exotics.

The rest of the field in "percent off" order (i.e. Tonalist at 5-1 vs. 5.9-1 on my line is 12.76% off):

TONALIST 12.76%
CALIFORNIA CHROME 22.29%
SHARED BELIEF 33.64%
CIGAR STREET 35.17%
VE DAY 39.84%
FOOTBRIDGE 42.54%
BAYERN 42.71%
MAJESTIC HARBOR 45.34%
IMPERATIVE 50.48%
CANDY BOY 51.95%
TOAST OF NEW YORK 56.6%

SUMMARY: CALIFORNIA CHROME is my clear pick here, and I really don't feel that's me being a fanboy. He has won at this distance on dirt, and his best races on dirt are better than SHARED BELIEF's. His style fits well at this track, he's working great, he got the perfect post ... all of the pieces are there.

Now, on the other hand, the question becomes: What is a fair price? In a field like this, 4-1 seems about as low as I would want to go. There's nothing worse than setting a relatively arbitrary line like that and then seeing your horse win at 3-1, though, so you can rest assured I will be betting him regardless in a race like this. I may have discipline on a Saturday in July, but when it comes to the Breeders' Cup Classic, I will fire away.

Beyond Chrome, I will likely trust the mixture of the system and my intuition and make win bets of varying sizes on PRAYER FOR RELIEF and ZIVO, as well as FOOTBRIDGE.

Finally, my horses to use in exotics would be: PRAYER FOR RELIEF, MORENO, ZIVO, TONALIST, SHARED BELIEF, FOOTBRIDGE. Granted, that's half the field, but since I'll likely be wheeling behind CALIFORNIA CHROME, it doesn't feel so bad.