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| UNION RAGS romped by 5 1/4 lengths in his lone career start at Belmont Park last summer. I expect him to do the same in the Belmont Stakes. |
The crazy longshots that have won in recent years have easily made this the hardest race in which to use any real handicapping logic. Most horses these days are hard-pressed to run even nine furlongs reasonably well, so the 10 furlongs that the Kentucky Derby offers is a real distance test.
The 12 furlongs in the Belmont Stakes is really nothing short of ridiculous for today’s racehorses.
Many of the recent Belmont Stakes winners have not been even “good” horses. Last year’s winner, RULER ON ICE, hasn’t won in six starts since. And he was one of the shorter priced and more logical winners in recent history at 24-1.
DROSSELMEYER won at 13-1 in 2010. SUMMER BIRD (one of the few recent winners that turned out to be an outstanding horse) won at 11-1 in 2009. DA’ TARA shocked the world when BIG BROWN failed to fire in 2008 and paid 38-1.
There were a few recent winners that paid less than double digit odds — RAGS TO RICHES won a thrilling stretch duel with CURLIN to win the 2007 edition at 4-1, JAZIL won at 6-1 in 2006 and AFLEET ALEX paid just more than even money in 2005 — but two of the three years before that featured bombs like BIRDSTONE at 36-1 in 2004 and the absolutely ridiculous SARAVA at 70-1. Yes, 70-1.
In other words, you have to go beyond conventional handicapping when taking a look at the Belmont. Past performances are important to see how horses have performed as they stretch out, but dazzling speed figures are not. Horses need not be brilliant to win the Belmont Stakes … they need to be steady runners. It’s not which horse has the most burst at the end. It’s which horse falls off the least.
Yes, even OPTIMIZER, who I ranked dead-last in both my Derby and Preakness Previews, deserves a fresh look.
That said, this preview should be much shorter than the past two because there’s no need or benefit (as if there was a real benefit to the first two legs when I unsuccessfully went against I’LL HAVE ANOTHER) to writing at length.
Here goes. This roughly goes in order of most likely to win, although the one exception is that I think I’LL HAVE ANOTHER is the most likely winner but will be bet down too far to realistically consider as a win bet. In parentheses after each horse is the post position, the morning line set by Eric Donovan, the Belmont oddsmaker, and the exchange betting line (which is probably the best representation of what we’ll see on race day since that’s actually moving based on actual bets).
VALUE VALUE VALUE:
UNION RAGS (PP #3, 6-1 ML, 5.25-1 EB): 6/1 on a horse that hasn’t gotten to run in his past two starts but was a freaking world-beater in all of his other starts? He had an absolutely awful trip in the Kentucky Derby, and his Florida Derby wasn’t that much prettier. He gets what I think is a major upgrade at jockey, from Julien Leparoux (who’s a great turf rider but who I think kind of sucks on dirt) to the outstanding (although cold lately) John Velazquez. He put in a bullet work on June 3 of five furlongs in 59 seconds. My only concern is that he doesn’t get 1.5 miles. I don’t know that. I don’t know that about any of these horses, though. There’s a good bit of talk that Dixie Union has never sired a horse that has won at 10 furlongs or more, but then there’s more talk that UNION RAGS matches up well with DROSSELMEYER, the 2010 winner of the Belmont Stakes and the 2011 winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic. I still think DROSSELMEYER pretty much sucks and is the very definition of a plodder, but the point is that the pedigree UNION RAGS boasts compares well to DROSSELMEYER’s. Both have sires with reputations as milers, but they have cross-bred stamina going well back. DIXIE UNION was by DIXIELAND BAND who was by NORTHERN DANCER, with the latter two full of stamina. Yet others say it’s “bloodlines 101” that the offspring of DIXIELAND BAND and MR. PROSPECTOR will absolutely not get 12 furlongs. So, as with everything, who knows?! For me, I think he’ll get the distance. He’s a big colt who should benefit from a smaller field and wider turns and more room to find his stride. His energy ratings indicate 1.5 miles should be doable. He’s had bad racing luck, but others say racing luck is garbage and that good horses, like good people, make their own luck. I say everyone gets a raw deal sometimes. If they ran this race 10 times, I think he would win three times, so he ought to be about 2-1 in my book. At anything more than that, I’m playing him. If he’s at 5-1 or above, I’ll go reasonably big (say $100) on this colt. I’m worried he’ll attract a lot of attention and go off at closer to 3-1, but who knows.
PROBABLY OVERBET BUT POSSIBLY DESERVEDLY:
PAYNTER (PP #9, 8-1 ML, 7.25-1 EB): I bet on PAYNTER back on April 7 in the Santa Anita Derby, which was his second start. At 10-1 running against what I perceived to be one decent horse – CREATIVE CAUSE – he seemed like a good bet. He finished fourth as I’LL HAVE ANOTHER started his bid for greatness. In his two starts since, he’s ran a couple of great speed figures in a 105 (a second two starts back in the one mile Derby trial) and a 107 (a dominant win on the Preakness undercard at 1 1/16 miles). He showed more speed in those last two starts than he did in the first two starts of his career, and that might be a good thing for his chances because he’s probably the horse that figures to be alone on the lead here. I just don’t think the pedigree is that great for 1.5 miles and that, combined with a good deal of wise guy love and not many starts, is enough to keep me off of PAYNTER.
TOSSING BECAUSE YOU NEED A PRICE:
I’LL HAVE ANOTHER (PP #11, 4-5 ML, 1.15-1 EB): This horse hasn’t won four straight and the first two legs of the Triple Crown on smoke and mirrors. Yes, he got a great trip in the Derby, but the way he ran down BODEMEISTER to win the Preakness was the stuff of legends. He had no business catching BODEMEISTER, but he dug in and, god damnit, he caught him. With it, he paired speed figs at 108-109, which would indicate to me he could be ready for another leap. He even has one of the better breeding lines to get the distance with a 7.3 and 7.7 furlong average winning distance from his parents. If there’s something that bothers me just a bit it’s that he has only been galloped from the Preakness until now. He has been putting in strong gallops of a mile every day and closing in razor sharp fractions of 12 seconds/furlong for about two furlongs, typically, but it’s just a bit bothersome. I would have liked to see a four or five furlong work last weekend. Another factor going against him is that the NYRA will not allow him to wear what is the equivalent of a Breathe-Right strip on his nose, which he has worn regularly. Sure, like humans, maybe it does absolutely nothing. But maybe it does! I’m also not sure what he does with this pace. In both the Preakness and the Derby, BODEMEISTER pretty much guaranteed a reasonably honest pace up front … even if the Preakness got pretty slow after all. I guess I see I’LL HAVE ANOTHER ducking in behind PAYNTER and MY ADONIS, but being in post 11 could end up leaving him hung wide in that first turn, and Belmont has truly sweeping turns where a little bit of ground out from the rail can really add up. Finally, jockey Mario Gutierrez has never ridding at Belmont Park before. SMARTY JONES lost in 2004 after his jockey, Stewart Elliot, made his move too soon and used his mount too much, too early. Gutierrez has been absolutely amazing in the first two legs of the Triple Crown, but can he put in another perfect ride at perhaps the hardest track to ride around? One plus is that he’ll have a “test run” at 1.5 miles at Belmont in the Brooklyn Handicap on Friday, but what if he waits too long in that one? Will he then overcompensate and move too early on Saturday? Or vice versa? There are quite a few questions against a number of solid competitors to make me think I’LL HAVE ANOTHER’s true fair odds are more like 2/1 than 4/5. Don’t get me wrong: If I lose a hundred bucks or more on this race and I’LL HAVE ANOTHER wins the Triple Crown, I’ll be on Cloud Nine. So you can call the way I’m playing this race a Triple Crown hedge. Why not!
DULLAHAN (PP #5, 5-1 ML, 3.25-1 EB): I just don’t believe in this horse. Bottom. Line. His win in the Bluegrass was discussed at length back in my Derby preview as probably a fluke. His turn time in the last race was stellar — 111 on the Brisnet ratings — and turn time is typically one of the best indicators of next-out success. He also worked a sick four furlongs a few days ago. Everyone’s jumping on the bandwagon, as shown by the ridiculous 3.25-1 exchange betting line. I don’t like him because: a) the Derby set up EXTREMELY WELL for him with the early split of 45.2 and he still could only manage third, b) he’s not a freaking dirt horse and c) everyone loves him. He might win, sure, but his price will be far too low. The Blue Grass set up ridiculously well for him, so I don’t give him much credit there. I’ll be pissed if he wins, but whatever. I don’t think his breeding – 6.7 furlongs and 7.5 furlongs of average win distance – or late running style lends itself to this distance. The end.
PRETTY INTRIGUING:
ATIGUN (PP #4, 30-1 ML, 32.5-1 EB): This horse has won 3 of 9 lifetime starts and in his lone start going 9 furlongs, steadily improved late. Granted, that was a well-beaten 5th in the Arkansas Derby, but the breeding shows the average winning distance of his sire was 7.2 furlongs and his dam’s was 8.9 furlongs. Those are pretty gaudy numbers in this day and age, believe it or not, so there might be reason to believe this one could steadily mow down the field in the final two furlongs. The worry is that he’s too slow early — typically, horses that win the Belmont are mid-pack. As started earlier, it’s not a question of late kick — no horses really have that at 12 furlongs —so asking this horse to close from too far back might be tough.
SO WHAT I'M SAYING IS THERE’S A CHANCE:
RAVELO’S BOY (PP #6, 50-1 ML, 50.5-1 EB): This horse has made 13 – THIRTEEN! – starts since last August. But he hasn’t raced since March 10 and hasn’t finished better than fourth against stakes competition, and that was in a Grade 3 race. So why do I think he might have a slim chance in hell? Well, he’s working absolute bullets down at Calder. His races show he’s a stone-cold closer, but his recent workouts indicate he has suddenly developed a ton of speed. A stiff six-furlong drill in 1:11.8 on June 3 made the owners decide to give him a shot, and they could just maybe be rewarded. The breeding isn’t bad at 7.2 and 7.2. Stranger things have happened.
MY ADONIS (PP #12, 20-1 ML, 34.5-1 EB): Really the only horse other than PAYNTER with any discernible speed in the race, he figures to be in the first flight and has only been worse than a length off the lead in any start but one (and that was due to being bumped) in his last nine races. So, OK, might be a pace advantage with a slow-ish pace up front. Is he good enough? He did run a 102 speed fig in the Gotham behind HANSEN three starts back, so that wasn’t bad. He really fell apart in the Wood, unfortunately, fading late after a pretty hot early pace and finishing seventh. If he gets a slower pace here, which I think he will, he could be a player.
OUTRIGHT TOSSES:
STREET LIFE (PP #1, 12-1 ML, 12.15-1 EB): I’m not quite sure what makes this horse any better than most of the horses in my tosses section, but whatever. He put in a reasonably solid effort at 9 furlongs in coming in third in the Peter Pan, closing like a relative freight train from 10th and 9 lengths back at the second call to finish third just 1.75 lengths back of the winner. But that winner was MARK VALESKI, a horse that wasn’t good enough to run in the Derby and a horse who I don’t think is even that good at 9 furlongs. He’s by STREET SENSE, so he’s got that big name in his pedigree, but his sixth place finish in the Wood won by Derby afterthought GEMOLOGIST and followed by Derby washout ALPHA doesn’t really inspire much greatness to me. This is another stone-cold closer without much pace to run into. At 12-1 he’s the easiest toss in the book even if you can make the case that he could improve from that May 12 race and has a race in on this sometimes trick Belmont surface.
UNSTOPPABLE U (PP #2, 30-1 ML, 32.5-1 EB): This horse is undefeated in two starts, but the competition was clearly about 30 cuts below what he’ll face Saturday … if he starts. UNSTOPPABLE U has trained very poorly recently and trainer Ken McPeek has hinted he might opt for an easier spot on the undercard or in weeks to come. The breeding also doesn’t indicate he wants this much distance. An easy toss.
FIVE SIXTEEN (PP #7, 50-1 ML, 50.5-1 EB): Other than one turf start, this horse has run better times in every consecutive race he’s run. Problem is, he only broke his maiden in his fifth start, and the only race he ran since then was a fourth-place finish against allowance company on April 18. This was an expensive horse once upon a time at $225,000, but I don’t think he belongs here at all. The breeding indicates he probably wants shorter.
GUYANA STAR DWEEJ (PP #8, 50-1 ML, 65.5-1 EB): This horse nearly ran in the Preakness and it was pretty much the biggest joke ever, so the feeling is the same here. The breeding doesn’t indicate he can go 1.5 miles at all, and this is another that only broke his maiden two starts back. He put in a horrible work on Monday, covering four furlongs in 49 seconds and generally looking like shit. No chance.
OPTIMIZER (PP #10, 20-1 ML, 34.5-1 EB): I was kidding earlier. Fuck this shitty horse! It’s funny, actually – he has one of the better-looking pedigrees in that the average winning distances of his parents was 8.0 and 8.2 furlongs. But in the late stages of both the Preakness and the Derby, he hasn’t made up any ground on the leaders at all. So he’s not good enough, but at least he’s not fresh. He keeps the last spot on my list! I would entertain any size wager on OPTIMIZER at 20-1. That’s hilarious. I would love to book that.
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So, that’s the horse-by-horse breakdown. If I was betting this race RIGHT NOW (as of 8 p.m. Thursday night), here’s how I’d play it based on the exchange betting odds:
$100 to win on 3-UNION RAGS
$5 to win on 4-ATIGUN
$5 to win on 6-RAVELO’S BOY
$5 to win on 12-MY ADONIS
I think that I’LL HAVE ANOTHER, DULLAHAN and PAYNTER being overbet leaves all of these horses with some modicum of value.
I tried a superfecta in the Preakness that didn’t work out – got the top three but not the fourth – and really wasn’t that heartbroken since I probably would have only made around $10 if my horse had hit the fourth spot, anyway.
This race is much more difficult to call and obviously will be much more lucrative if you do, but I don’t have the bankroll to go after this too seriously. Just making those win bets and calling it a day will be good enough for me.
