 |
Could it be HANSEN flying to the wire
to win the 2012 Kentucky Derby? |
*****5/5 UPDATE, 3:22 PM: About to head off to the Derby Party. My main plays, of course, are:
HANSEN TO WIN
CREATIVE CAUSE TO WIN
I'm also on ALPHA to win at his current price of 21-1 ... that's nuts.
I'm in small on DONE TALKING and PROSPECTIVE, as well.
Finally, I'm keeping a close eye on BODEMEISTER. I'll be in at 7-1. I'll also be in if GEMOLOGIST hits 10-1 (unlikely).
I'll play a tri box with HANSEN/CREATIVE CAUSE/ALPHA/BODEMEISTER over all of themselves, along with DONE TALKING and PROSPECTIVE.
*****5/5 UPDATE, 1:36 PM: The weather doesn't seem to be an issue. A few other thoughts:
1. Nevermind my thoughts on CREATIVE CAUSE. I think the value is there — enough to ignore the rumors.
2. BODEMEISTER at 7-1 and ALPHA at 22-1 are value. I won't be ignoring that those if they're still around come post time.
3. The track seems to be playing a bit more fairly in that the frontrunners aren't carrying their speed completely to the wire ... winners are coming from slightly off the pace in the two races I've seen thus far.
*****5/4 UPDATE, 10:32 PM: A couple pressing notes from today:
1. Early day reports that CREATIVE CAUSE would be scratched have since been refuted, but he no longer looks like a bargain at 12-1 or thereabouts. The trainer has entirely dismissed the reports and claims he wished he never mentioned the shoe incident (apparently he lost a shoe during shipping and a piece of his foot came off with the shoe) that arose from shipping CREATIVE CAUSE, so it really might be a non-issue. But reports from the track have pegged him as stiff and "sore looking", so there might be reason for pause.
2. If the track plays as fast as it did today, I'm upgrading HANSEN to a legitimately strong play. We had a few track records fall and the Kentucky Oaks, which was supposed to be pace-laden and set up wonderfully for closers, turned into a match race with the first two finishers. This would also be to BODEMEISTER's benefit, of course, but I would definitely feel better about HANSEN if the track plays this much to speed tomorrow.
3. That said, the early odds on HANSEN in the Derby are not particularly enticing. At present, he has been bet down to 7-1. NOT COOL. That said, only $100k has been bet into the pool, which represents less than 1 percent of the expected handle ... so we can't get too excited. If you're so inclined, you can view current odds here:
http://www.drf.com/news/2012-kentucky-derby-union-rags-early-favorite-oaksderby-daily-double-will-pays For what it's worth (again, not much), I would make ALPHA a bet at 22-1 and also be on EL PADRINO at 34-1, with PROSPECTIVE at 69-1 being a true dreamer's delight.*****
If you know me at all, you know that writing the following 15 pages in a Microsoft Word document over the past few weeks has been a singular pleasure.
For the past five years or so, I haven't looked forward to any day on the calendar as I have the first Saturday in May.
Kentucky Derby Day never fails to deliver when it comes to drama and excitement. Like any other horse race, it's a true puzzle to figure it out ... only this is the most complicated and difficult puzzle of all. It's like putting together a puzzle without the picture of the finished product on the cover of the box.
I've been following most of the horses that will race in Saturday's Run For The Roses since last summer, but these horses are still developing and won't reach their true potentials until long after Saturday. That's part of the reason why it's so difficult to pick the winner of the Kentucky Derby.
Of course, the fact that there are 20 horses in the race also plays a factor, both because of the sheer number of options and the incredible traffic jams that seem to always play a factor in how this race plays out.
I've come a long way in handicapping the Kentucky Derby in the past four years. I began in 2009 by simply listing my (often horrible) visual impressions of horses in their last races, and then moved on to some rudimentary discussions of speed figures and pace in the 2010 version!
Looking back on it, last year's preview was pretty solid. Although my primary pick of SOLDAT didn't pan out, ANIMAL KINGDOM was pretty highly touted and one of my top three, so I have no qualms in saying that I finally picked the winner.
Still, it's downright impossible to quantify how much my handicapping prowess has grown in the past year. In one of the early previews, I jokingly referred to the fact that some handicappers were crazy enough to have "energy ratings", detailed spreadsheets with fractions, and something nutty called "pacelines" ... and that this was silly because it was all surely impossible to quantify.
And now I'm one of those crazy handicappers.
Frankly, I'm still in my infancy in using what's known as Sartin Methodology, but even having the spreadsheet set up to quantify some of the thought processes that I may have already been using is a huge advantage. In a race like the Kentucky Derby where it's so difficult to guess at how things might play out, having stone cold numbers to lean on can be a huge help.
At least I'd like to think so.
Overall, this preview (which honestly did ultimately hit the 15-page mark in Microsoft Word ... sad, I know) actually might harken back to the initial preview in that I have more visual evidence of certain things — only now, I at least know what I'm talking about. A horse closing quickly doesn't mean a thing unless the horses around him are also closing quickly; it's a mixture of visual impressions backed up by solid numbers.
What follows now is my 1-20 ranking of horses in the order of likelihood that I think they’ll win. Note that this does not necessarily mean that I think the No. 4 horse on this list is a better bet than the No. 10 horse … depending on the odds, the No. 10 horse may be a much better wager. A 4-1 line on my No. 4 horse is probably much less desirable than a 20-1 line on my No. 8 horse (for some of you with less betting accumen, 4-1 means that for each dollar that you wager, you will get four dollars back if your horse wins; 20-1 would return $20 for each $1 wagered). I’ll get into specifics on what horses I think will actually be a good bet later.
After each horse’s name, in parentheses will be the horse’s post number (1-20 with 1 on the rail and 20 the widest on the track), the morning line (set by Mike Battaglia, who Churchill Downs asks to create his best guesses at the odds on each horse) and the exchange betting line (taken from thegreek.com and likely the best representation of what we’ll see on Saturday).
For what it’s worth, I ranked the horses 1-20 last weekend (the odds only came out on Wednesday). In other words, you’ll get a pretty good idea of which horses I think might be good bets and which I don’t think as much of in relation to most others.
Finally, I'll probably have some updates on both Friday and Saturday as the final appearances/impressions of these horses roll in and as the weather comes into focus more clearly (rain could change this list quite a bit). I'll denote those changes with timestamps as I make the updates.
Now, without further ado ... here we go:
THE MAIN CONTENDERS:
1. UNION RAGS (Post Position #4, 9-2 Morning Line, 4.25-1 Exchange Betting): Here's one of the most hilarious things about horse racing: In the Florida Derby, UNION RAGS was a ridiculous 2-5 favorite. That means he would have had to win 60% of the time for you to break even on that bet. If he had won that race, he’d be an overwhelming favorite here in the Kentucky Derby and perhaps even considered a good shot to win the Triple Crown. But TAKE CHARGE INDY got away with some slowish early fractions and an easy lead, UNION RAGS got caught on the rail thanks to EL PADRINO tracking his every move, and TAKE CHARGE INDY held on to win the Florida Derby. Since then, some have questioned whether UNION RAGS really was as good as we all thought while others maintain trainer Michael Matz has UNION RAGS sitting on a big one similar to what he did with the great BARBARO in 2006. He has been working like an absolute stud at Churchill Downs this week and apparently looks like a million bucks. Of the two favorites, I think UNION RAGS is clearly a better wager as the pace setup for him will be much more suitable. Since he won his only start on an off track by his largest winning margin to date, I don’t think rain hurts him at all. The three questions raised by his detractors have been: 1. He hasn’t shown that great Beyer speed figure that some others in the field have popped off – so UNION RAGS may simply not be fast enough, 2. Despite a troubled and much longer trip than HANSEN in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he had every opportunity to run by HANSEN in the stretch and simply could not – was this cause for a class concern?, and 3. He may have some trouble getting the 1 ¼ mile trip with average winning distances of just 6.9 and 7.4 furlongs. I’m not overly worried about any of those issues, but they’re something to be considered.
2. BODEMEISTER (PP #6, 4-1 ML, 3.95-1 EB): Immediately after BODEMEISTER ran so huge in the Arkansas Derby (dial this race up on YouTube if you want to be impressed), I posted that he would be the Derby favorite. This was met with some initial questioning from the few people I know that like horse racing, but now it’s becoming clear that he almost certainly will be the favorite (although UNION RAGS is getting a lot of love for his strong workout last Saturday). BODEMEISTER has put up three straight triple digit speed figs and has shown a steady stream of improvement. Granted, his romp in the Arkansas Derby was over a field where the second best horse was SECRET CIRCLE, a horse whose connections decided he wasn’t good enough to waste his time in the Derby, but BODEMEISTER’s final time in the Arkansas Derby was more than a second better than the Grade 1 horses in the race prior. However, in that Grade 1 race, ALTERNATION grabbed an easy lead and kept it slow and reasonable throughout. BODEMEISTER, on the other hand, broke from post 12 and had to book it along with STAT to get to the lead, which he only grabbed after a 23 second first quarter. At that point, he had a completely uncontested lead and was able to click off 23.5 in the second quarter and then, this is the key: He was allowed to get away with a 24.86 third quarter. The race was absolutely over at that point. That's an absolute breather for a horse like BODEMEISTER. My initial impression was "Holy shit, he ran a half mile in 46.5 and then drew off like that?! This is next Triple Crown winner!" Upon further review, though, he's a bet against horse, unfortunately. Contrast how Mike Smith rode BODEMEISTER down the stretch with how HANSEN was ridden in the Blue Grass. Mike Smith knew his horse HAD to win to make the Derby. You can see that when he sees SECRET CIRCLE coming up to him, Smith gets BUSY with that stick. He knifes BODEMEISTER stiffly throughout the stretch and doesn't let up, giving him a vigorous hand ride all the way through the wire. Additionally, the Derby will be BODEMEISTER's fifth race so far this year. For today's breed of horses, that's a lot of work in 4.5 months. What I find extremely interesting with BODEMEISTER is that, while he's a speedy horse who has led at the second call of his three last races, his late pace has been the strongest of all in all of those races. That means one of two things: He's a super horse (possible!) or he has gotten away with easy leads. Fortunately, we can use the race shapes from Bris to discover that EVERY SINGLE RACE he has been in has been slower than average at the second call. Anyone can look at BODEMEISTER's finish in the Arkansas Derby and be amazed enough to bet him. That's why I won't.
3. HANSEN (PP #14, 10-1 ML, 11.5-1 EB): Between CREATIVE CAUSE and HANSEN, gray horses are well-represented in this year's Derby! HANSEN held off UNION RAGS at Churchill Downs to win the BC Juvenile last November (CREATIVE CAUSE was third) and hasn't done much wrong since. So how is he 10-1? Well, most still believe that he can't get the distance! It's all pedigree related. There's probably no horse that's more beloved by some and behated (I made that word up) by others. The haters state that he has NO CHANCE of getting the Derby distance. The lovers state that he already beat most of these same horses on this same course (in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile at 1 1/16 miles) and added a new dimension to his game by rating off the pace in the Gotham. His second-place finish to DULLAHAN in the Blue Grass was a blessing for those who like HANSEN. Had he won, he might go off as the Derby favorite. Horse racing is a funny game, especially when Dr. Kendall Hansen is your owner. This is a guy who is, first and foremost, someone who bets on horses. Don't discount that angle. If you pay close attention to the "stretch drive" in the Blue Grass, HANSEN (the horse) isn't asked for much of anything at all. It's my contention that that was NOT BY ACCIDENT. Even if you throw out my contention that Dr. Hansen wanting a better price in the Derby was a factor, HANSEN did not need to win this race AT ALL. This was a meaningless race to a horse that already had plenty of graded earnings in the tank. I am virtually certain that Mike Maker, HANSEN's trainer, told Ramon Dominguez, "Do NOT use this horse in the stretch. Get him out front, give him a few taps to make sure he remembers how to do this, but do NOT knife him repeatedly to win this race." Some people think HANSEN was gassed at the finish, but I didn’t see it that way at all. Would HANSEN have won the Blue Grass if pressed all-out? Who knows. Beyond the fact that it was irrelevant to begin with, the Blue Grass is run on polytrack, and in particular, a polytrack and a race that has functioned as a turf race won by turf horses! All in all, I think HANSEN is sitting on a big one in the Kentucky Derby. No, I'm not sure if he can get the distance — his sire's AWD was just 7.3 and his dam's was just 6.8 — but I think his talent is such that it can't be discounted. His post-position draw of No. 14 was pretty much perfect in that he can sit outside the main speed and also has a few extra feet of breaking room since the auxiliary gate begins at No. 15 to his outside. I’m not sure if he’s best-served on the pace or just off, but assuming that TRINNIBERG is going to gun it like it’s a sprint race, HANSEN will likely NEED to sit back just a bit and assume the lead as they enter the final turn when TRINNIBERG dies off a la SIDNEY’S CANDY a few years back. One of the biggest concerns is that HANSEN is white, and it's not because I'm some sort of horse racist. I think he'll garner a fair bit of support from the masses simply because he IS white, and if the horse racists out there get too bold in their wagering habits, he might not be a good bet after all.
4. CREATIVE CAUSE (PP #8, 12-1 ML, 10.5-1 EB): I have a soft spot in my heart for this one as he won me some nice change last fall in defeating DRILL (who has since proven to be a sprinter/miler, so it wasn’t that impressive, after all). He finished second to once-overlooked I'LL HAVE ANOTHER in the Santa Anita Derby, but there's not too much shame in that. The biggest concern for CREATIVE CAUSE is not unlike that of UNION RAGS in that he hasn’t put together that one big race where he throws up a big speed figure. On the other hand, in his four career races at greater than a mile, he has finished no worse than a length behind the winner (last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile) while closing from off the pace into what have been soft paces in every race BUT that BC Juvenile. Frankly, I pondered putting him ahead of both BODEMEISTER and HANSEN due to the pace concerns for the above two, but my biggest concern is his decline in the Santa Anita Derby to finish a nose back of I’LL HAVE ANOTHER — a horse I don’t think too highly of. Betting CREATIVE CAUSE to show might be the way to play here, but you could easily argue that his value at greater than 10-1 can’t be ignored.
5. GEMOLOGIST (PP #15, 6-1 ML, 6.25-1 EB): This is the only good horse that ALPHA has faced, and GEMOLOGIST showed a lot of moxie in holding that one off. However, the time in the Wood Memorial was painfully slow, and while time isn't everything, you have to wonder if it just doesn't mean that ALPHA isn't a very good horse to begin with, and GEMOLOGIST is just barely better. On the other hand, the adjusted pace numbers are strong and his Bris speed figure is much better than the final time itself would lead you to believe. The fact that an undefeated horse like GEMOLOGIST is only fifth in my rankings tells you everything you need to know about this year’s Kentucky Derby. It’s loaded! He’s well-bred and should like the extra distance, and that stubborn streak he showed in turning back ALPHA is huge in a race like the Derby. And you can’t fault a horse for winning, right? And not needing the lead is huge, right? It sure is. Frankly, I’ve swapped these Nos. 3-5 horses in my head 20 times already. It’s just that HANSEN and CREATIVE CAUSE have proven it against stronger competition than GEMOLOGIST has. That’s the only thing that separates these three.
THE POSSIBLE PARTY CRASHERS:
6. ALPHA (PP #11, 15-1 ML, 12.5-1 EB): There's no doubt that this is a strong horse, but he hasn't faced more than one good horse all year long. That horse was GEMOLOGIST, and ALPHA simply couldn’t get by him even though he had every chance to do so. On the other hand, he should absolutely love the 1 ¼ distance, perhaps more so than any other horse in the field. He turned in a great workout last week and has been said to be looking like a million bucks. He comes from off the pace. This horse has a LOT going for him. The biggest issue I see is that he ran so poorly against most of these same horses on the same track last fall in the BC Juvenile. Since then, he has beaten up mostly on inferior competition. ALPHA wouldn’t surprise me that much, but he’s certainly not my pick of the crop in the 10-1 range.
7. EL PADRINO (PP #16, 20-1 ML, 20.5-1 EB): I haven’t understood the hype on this horse from many people for quite some time, including one of my favorite Derby previewers. This horse GENERALLY strikes me as a plodder. A grinder. Sure, those types often run well in the Derby, but I personally don’t think he’s brilliant enough to win it. On the other hand, he’s in the ALPHA group of really being bred for the classic distance, and he’s also coming off three straight 100+ Bris speed figures — the only other horses to do that are BODEMEISTER, ALPHA and UNION RAGS. That’s pretty heady company. EL PADRINO went off at 2.7-1 in the Florida Derby, the second choice to UNION RAGS at less than even money. He boxed UNION RAGS in around the track and came up completely empty in the stretch run. Afterward, there weren’t many excuses other than that he was paying too much attention to running against UNION RAGS rather than running his own race. So that’s troubling. And what really bothered me was his race in the Risen Star Stakes. Some people viewed this as a really gutsy win, as he dug in and nosed out MARK VALESKI. I, on the other hand, immediately declared that if EL PADRINO could barely hold off MARK VALESKI (who was withdrawn from Derby consideration earlier this week because his trainer basically thought he wasn’t good enough), he has no chance of winning the Kentucky Derby. I still believe that. I think.
THE OVERRATED ZONE:
8. TAKE CHARGE INDY (PP #3, 15-1 ML, 14.25-1 EB): I was on Take Charge Indy in the Florida Derby because I felt strongly that his early pace would be a huge help in holding off the pressing UNION RAGS and EL PADRINO. I was right and cashed win, place and show tickets. TAKE CHARGE INDY is a nice horse, no doubt. And yet, I'll have to pass on him in the Kentucky Derby because of that win. He's now overvalued, especially in a race he has little to no chance of earning the lead. Especially because he has Derby wizard Calvin Borel on board (you may remember SUPER SAVER from earlier in this preview … Borel is unbelievably overbet). That said, his speed figures are extremely strong in the last two races (109-104) and label him a real threat. In fact, that 109 figure is second only to EL PADRINO’s 111 in the same race, but I view those two figures with some questioning due to that exact fact. Either way, what bothers me about TAKE CHARGE INDY is that his two last races have been by far the best in his career, and they have both come either on the lead or within half a length of the lead throughout. I don’t believe he has any real chance of making the lead in the Kentucky Derby, much less holding onto it throughout, so he’s a pretty easy toss for me.
9. DULLAHAN (PP #5, 8-1 ML, 4.55-1 EB): Well, if you read my take on HANSEN, you'll figure out pretty quickly that I don't think much of DULLAHAN's Blue Grass win. Again: this is basically a turf race won by turf horses that can close. DULLAHAN is developing into a wise guy horse of sorts and will probably continue to do so (being bet down to near co-favorite status on the exchange betting site is a great example of this), but I don't think he's anything more than a plodder. This doesn’t necessarily mean he won’t pass a bunch of tired horses late, but he is unbelievably overrated here. In three career tries on dirt (granted, two were at six furlongs or less and the first two races of his career), he hasn’t finished better than third. I’m not sold that this horse is well-bred enough, either! I don’t think he’s a great fit for this distance, either! He was shut down very quickly after the wire in the Blue Grass. Honestly the only good thing I have to say about DULLAHAN is that his speed figures have consistently gotten better from last August: 77-80-94-96-98-102. If he improves again, I suppose he could be right there … but people at the track this week have said he looks generally uncomfortable. This horse is a massive, massive underlay.
10. I’LL HAVE ANOTHER (PP #19, 12-1 ML, 11.5-1 EB): Aside from a pretty great name, this horse has a pretty great past two performances. The last race in particular being extremely impressive with an all-out stretch drive to nip CREATIVE CAUSE by a nose. He should like the distance and all … but this is not a particularly well-bred horse. Breeding matters at this level a lot, and it’s pretty hard to see him having the class to come out on top. Additionally, he appears to need to be pretty close to the lead to do his best, and this Derby pace might make that tactical style much tougher than in his last two wins (which had very, very slow early paces). What’s more, PP #19 either ensures that he a) has to expend a lot of early energy to clear the horses inside of him and get near the lead, b) gets hung very wide, or c) is stuck much further back than he ever has been. This was a generally very “fair” draw in terms of not knocking out horses of true import with bad posts (BODEMEISTER didn’t draw the rail and UNION RAGS didn’t draw No. 20, for example), but I’LL HAVE ANOTHER really saw his chances take a hit when he got hung out in No. 19. At the same odds as horses like HANSEN and CREATIVE CAUSE, you’d be a fool to bet I’LL HAVE ANOTHER.
11. WENT THE DAY WELL (PP #13, 20-1 ML, 25-1 EB): Hey look, it’s ANIMAL KINGDOM, the sequel! Same owners, same trainer, same path to the Kentucky Derby. Some people are pretty high on this angle, particularly because the trainer, Graham Motion, seems so much more confident with his charge this time. Additionally, WENT THE DAY WELL posted a 103 speed fig in his last race, which followed a 93 in the race before and a 92 in his third race back. ANIMAL KINGDOM, on the other hand, went 97-96-93. To me, however, WENT THE DAY WELL is a definite pass based on a) the similarities to ANIMAL KINGDOM — he’ll be overbet — and that 103 speed figure in the Spiral. What made ANIMAL KINGDOM most intriguing was that nearly paired speed fig that showed he was ready to take another jump. For WENT THE DAY WELL, pairing the 103 probably wouldn’t be good enough to win, and he’s just as or more likely to regress from the 103 back down to the 98 or 99 level. WENT THE DAY WELL is adding blinkers, which could make an important difference, of course, but based on the overbet connections and the barely good enough horse (keep in mind that he beat nobody in the Spiral this year), there’s no value here at all.
THE LIVE(-ISH) LONGSHOTS:
12. PROSPECTIVE (PP #12, 30-1 ML, 42.5-1 EB): This one holds some modicum of intrigue as a well-bred horse on the improve. He has a mid-pack style that I think will bode pretty well in this year’s Derby and just paired the top two Bris figures in his career in back-to-back races. Horses that do this usually take another step forward in their next race, and with another improvement it’s within the realm of possibility that he could get up to win the Kentucky Derby. I’ll be monitoring the odds on this guy pretty closely and would probably take 30-1or better. The worry is that he was just a well-beat sixth in the Blue Grass, but again … that was a polytrack race. Yeah, he was 13th in the BC Juvenile last year … but that was last year. This year on dirt, he has two wins and one second after being two-wide in both turns. You could do much worse at 35-1 or higher.
13. DONE TALKING (PP #17, 50-1 ML, 35.5-1 EB): This winner of the Illinois Derby didn’t prove much of anything by beating a pretty pathetic field in that race, and his 10th place finish against poor competition in the Gotham the race before said even less about his ability. That said, he ran a very respectable fourth (beaten by just a head) in the Remsen last November (where he was neck and neck with EL PADRINO), and the Derby would be his third race off a layoff. The way he rolled through the Illinois Derby field said something about his ability to navigate traffic and accelerate, too. The outside post won’t hurt him at all as he’ll be pulled back, and he could benefit from the potential hot pace. He deserves to be a pretty long shot, but 35-1 or more might be worth a look.
THE DADDY’S WHO CAN'T WIN ON MOTHER'S DAY WEEKEND:
14. DADDY NOSE BEST (PP #10, 15-1 ML, 22.5-1 EB): This horse came home SLOOOOOOOOWLY and barely got past a flailing ISN'T HE CLEVER in the Sunland. He reminds me a lot of DULLAHAN, which, as you should know by now, doesn’t say much about either! DADDY NOSE BEST has been attracting some attention in the online communities I frequent, and I find that laughable. He hasn’t beaten anyone more than DONE TALKING has, and yet he’s 15-1 on the morning line?! He’s a turf horse who ran on turf for six straight starts spanning from last July to December. He won on artificial stuff in February and then won that Sunland Derby (a shitty, shitty field) and now he’s 15-1? I seriously don’t have anything good to say about this horse other than his closing style, and man … give me most of the other closers over this one! The biggest thing he has going for him is the support of anyone who has been watching him work the past two weeks — they all say he's sitting on a big one with the way he has prepared.
15. DADDY LONG LEGS (PP #1, 30-1 ML, 22.5-1 EB): The winner of the UAE Derby at the Dubai World Cup in his last race, this horse might end up getting overlooked due to his dull 12th place finish here last year in the BC Juvenile. That said, that probably makes sense. His win in the UAE Derby this year was the only race he’s run since that 11th in the BC Juvenile, so there’s the (pretty good) possibility that he blew his wad on that race. Additionally, that race was run on the artificial Tapeta surface, which typically favors turf pedigrees like DADDY LONG LEGS to begin with. The BC Juvenile defeat remains the only race he’s run on dirt. He likes to track the leaders, too, and since he got stuck in post #1, which destroyed even a great horse like LOOKIN’ AT LUCKY’S chances a few years back, it’s pretty hard to see this one bombing in for a win. Not worth betting on.
THE NO-CHANCERS:
16. TRINNIBERG (PP #9, 50-1 ML, 42.5-1 EB): Hoooo boy, now we have something to talk about! TRINNIBERG has not run further than seven furlongs in his seven-race career. The Derby is run at 10 furlongs. The average winning distance of his sire and dam was 6.1 and 6.4 furlongs. After he won the G3 Bayshore at Aqueduct on April 12 with his second straight triple figure speed figure, his connections said they would not enter the Derby because they wanted to do right by the horse and use him as the stud sprinter he seems on his way to being. And then … they did a complete about-face and entered him into the Derby. OK then! Completely stupid. What makes TRINNIBERG worth discussing at all is his early speed. In the BC Juvenile Sprint last fall, he ran a first quarter in 20.8 seconds. Since he has had the lead at the first call in his last five races, it appears he will do whatever it takes to get the lead. In his last race, that was only a 23.4 second quarter mile — actually fairly reasonable. But fast-breaking horses and leaders like HANSON, BODEMEISTER and TAKE CHARGE INDY, the big question is if TRINNIBERG will take the pace to a meltdown by clicking off a first quarter in :22 and a half in :44 or :45. The “smart” thing to do for these other horses would simply be to let TRINNIBERG go as if he wasn’t even in the race … he has no chance of making the distance, so don’t worry about him getting the lead. On the other hand, these horses have a mind of their own and are living creatures with adrenaline that pumps just like humans. If they typically like to run on the lead and they see another horse bolt ahead of them … they’re most likely going to tug to go after him. He’s a handicapper’s nightmare as it’s truly anyone’s guess. For me, though, horses that HAVE TO BE ON THE LEAD to win like TAKE CHARGE INDY get downgraded with his presence, as does BODEMEISTER who wants to be right there. A horse like HANSEN, on the other hand, gets upgraded with that ability he showed to be taken back. It’s a tough call, but that’s what makes it fun. I moved TRINNIBERG up from No. 20 to No. 16 after writing more about him as there is at least the question of whether he has more in the tank than we give him credit for. With the others, there’s no question that they don’t have it. I still don’t really think he has a chance, but if half of the field gets wiped out behind him in a tragic accident, he could maybe run 1 ¼ miles before anyone else can catch him.
17. ROUSING SERMON (PP #7, 50-1 ML, 55.5-1 EB): My thoughts on this guy are pretty neatly summed up by my piece on LIAISON. Not only does he have little chance of getting the distance, at least he hasn’t won in his last five starts. What’s funny about ROUSING SERMON is that the talk from the connections was that he wasn’t going, wasn’t going … OH WAIT NOW HE’S GOING! I actually moved this guy up from No. 20 after writing a little bit more about him — he has at least showed some determination in his race, and most importantly, trainer Jerry Hollendorfer usually doesn’t bother bringing horses to the Derby at all … so he just might have an ace up his sleeve. Still … that’s really hard to see.
18. SABERCAT (PP #18, 30-1 ML, 35.5-1 EB): I’m not entirely sure why, but this one has gained some support from the wise guy community. His breeding is pretty solid and he closed well enough in the Arkansas Derby, but when you’re running from ninth to third and still losing two lengths to the winner in the stretch, you’re not doing much. The only thing I could potentially get excited about with this horse is, as with some others, a pace meltdown up top. SABERCAT’S best race came in the Delta Jackpot where they went the first quarter in :22 flat up front and he rallied from 10th at the first call to win by four lengths. Still, his 92 Bris speed fig at the second call was much, much slower than the majority of legit horses in this field, so it’s hard to see him making any noise at all.
19. LIAISON (PP #20, 50-1 ML, 40.5-1 EB): Some of these horses just have no business being here. In three starts at age 3, he lost his jockey and did not finish in the first, finished fourth in the San Felipe and finished a very dull sixth in the Santa Anita Derby. Additionally, I don’t think he has any chance of getting the 1 ¼ miles. Someone threw out the idea that Bob Baffert was running him “because he can” (LIAISON won three races to close out his 2-year-old season, including the G1 Cash Call Futurity that gave him the needed graded earnings to make the Derby) and that it would mean there’s one less potentially legit horse to beat BODEMEISTER. I don’t necessarily disagree with that reasoning.
20. OPTIMIZER (PP #2, 50-1 ML, 32.5-1 EB): This horse drew into the field when MARK VALESKI pulled out on Tuesday, but it’s a pretty irrelevant change — I had MARK VALESKI ranked 18th and only had to move OPTIMIZER down a few spots. The best thing you can say about this horse is that he hasn’t shied away from competition, facing most of the horses in this field at one point or another. The most honest thing you can say about this horse is that he has gotten destroyed by most of the horses in this field. In six starts on dirt, he has finished better than fourth just once, and that was a fast-closing second to SECRET CIRCLE (who, again, was deemed not good enough to run here)., if OPTIMIZER wins, I might view it as a bigger upset than MINE THAT BIRD. At least with MINE THAT BIRD, there was some question of how he might run against better competition. With OPTIMIZER, there are no questions: he sucks.
SO, that’s my 1-20 breakdown. Here’s how I expect the race to generally play out:
PACE SETTERS:
TRINNIBERG, BODEMEISTER, TAKE CHARGE INDY, HANSEN
SECOND TIER:
GEMOLOGIST, I’LL HAVE ANOTHER, ALPHA, EL PADRINO, UNION RAGS, CREATIVE CAUSE
THIRD TIER:
DADDY LONG LEGS, WENT THE DAY WELL, PROPSECTIVE
FOURTH TIER:
DADDY NOSE BEST, SABERCAT, LIAISON
WELL BACK:
DULLAHAN, ROUSING SERMON, DONE TALKING, OPTIMIZER
And here’s my “race call”:
TRINNIBERG and BODEMEISTER fire out of the gates together and battle through strong early fractions, with the half mile going in :46 flat. Not more than a length back are TAKE CHARGE INDY and HANSEN, with GEMOLOGIST and I’LL HAVE ANOTHER just tucked in behind them.
As the field hits the final turn, TRINNIBERG weakens and BODEMEISTER assumes the lead. TAKE CHARGE INDY, too, shows signs of weakening, as HANSEN ranges up on the outside of BODEMEISTER and takes the lead at the top of the stretch.
Meanwhile, GEMOLOGIST, ALPHA, EL PADRINO, UNION RAGS and CREATIVE CAUSE are in behind the battling frontrunners and look poised to pounce on any sign of weakness.
HANSEN is supposed to stop, but he doesn’t. He keeps running determinedly toward the wire while BODEMEISTER can do no more. GEMOLOGIST is just a length back of HANSEN with a furlong to go and UNION RAGS gets off the rail and swings to the outside just a length back of CREATIVE CAUSE, who is alongside GEMOLOGIST. ALPHA dives to the rail and it appears to be a five-horse race at this point.
With 100 yards to go, UNION RAGS has snuck past CREATIVE CAUSE and GEMOLOGIST. ALPHA doesn’t appear to have enough today.
But HANSEN won’t quit. UNION RAGS is a half-length back and desperately trying to get to him, but he switches leads at the worst time and veers out once again, as he has been wont to do late in races.
GEMOLOGIST and CREATIVE CAUSE are still digging on, but they’re still a length back. CREATIVE CAUSE eyes the crowd and spooks just a bit, bumping into GEMOLOGIST, thereby more or less ruining both of their chances of getting to HANSEN.
UNION RAGS lunges late but can’t get there.
HANSEN is your 2012 Kentucky Derby winner … by a neck. UNION RAGS second, GEMOLOGIST third by way of DQ on CREATIVE CAUSE, who finishes fourth. PROSPECTIVE and DONE TALKING come flying late but can do no better than fifth and sixth. EL PADRINO is seventh.
So, all in all, here are the horses I WILL NOT bet:
BODEMEISTER
TAKE CHARGE INDY
DULLAHAN
I’LL HAVE ANOTHER
WENT THE DAY WELL
DADDY NOSE BEST
DADDY LONG LEGS
TRINNIBERG
ROUSING SERMON
SABERCAT
LIAISON
OPTIMIZER
Horses I PROBABLY WON’T bet:
GEMOLOGIST
EL PADRINO
Horses I MIGHT bet:
ALPHA
UNION RAGS
Horses I WOULD LIKE to bet:
PROSPECTIVE
DONE TALKING
Horses I ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL bet:
CREATIVE CAUSE
HANSEN
I might also play around with some tri boxes including my top 7 horses, but we’ll see how things develop in the next few days and adjust accordingly.
To sum it all up: My official pick is HANSEN. The race he ran in the Gotham was how I expect him to run this particular race. I think the Blue Grass was nothing more than a workout. He has won on this exact stage once before. I think he has as good a chance as any to do it again, so at 10-1 or more, I think he’s a terrific bargain.
