PACE OUTLOOK: You're kidding, right? Again, this is America. We like our horses to go as fast as they can, as far as they can, as if their tails were on fire. That said, you generally don't see sprints at Santa Anita won by closers from out of the clouds. Even when the pace is fast, you'll typically see a frontrunner get away or a mid-pack runner emerge and win going away. The track looked fair on Friday, but this is still dirt, after all. There will basically be an avalanche of speed from the outside, and any horse that wants a chance on the inside probably needs to either drop out the back or get going themselves. This will be absolutely fascinating.
GENERAL OUTLOOK: SECRET CIRCLE is the tepid 9-2 morning line favorite, and that sounds about right. This thing is anyone's race. WIND FIRE is just about the only horse I would feel comfortable tossing in any sort of multi-race wager.
1. Seeking The Sherif (Madonado/Ellis) 20-1: Former claimer is in way too deep here, especially from the rail.
2. Indianapolis (Smith/Baffert) 12-1: Undefeated Derby prospect reminds of SECRET CIRCLE a year ago. I think he actually looked better than SECRET CIRCLE in their drill together a few weeks ago, and I can't get that image out of my head even though I know winning from this post with this step up in class will be a huge task.
3. Wind Fire (Spencer/D. Brown) 30-1: Going long on the dirt? Maybe! Sprinting? Nah.
4. Secret Circle (Garcia/Baffert) 9-2: Let's face it ... last year's Sprint was kind of weak. He beat LAUGH TRACK and GENTLEMEN'S BET, OK? He hasn't won in two starts since, and INDIANAPOLIS outworked him. I'll look elsewhere.
5. Private Zone (Pedroza/Velasquez) 6-1: Has seemingly settled into a good race-bad race cycle, and he's due for a bad race after a huge effort to win the Vosburgh over DADS CAPS and PALACE. Plus with all of the other speed outside, any bobble at the start means a certain demise.
6. Rich Tapestry (Doleuze/Chang) 5-1: He beat GOLDENCENTS and SECRET CIRCLE in his lone American start, but that was kind of a strange race with a small field. Working out a trip this time will be the big challenge, and in this wide open race, 5-1 seems too low.
7. Mico Margarita (Napravnik/Asmussen) 15-1: Her Sept. 28 victory at Remington puts him right there speed figure wise with the best in this race. WORK ALL WEEK has whipped him on three separate occasions, but the closing style of this one is intriguing enough to keep him in mind.
8. Palace (C. Velasquez/Rice) 6-1: I think he peaked earlier this year against generally inferior competition. The running style helps matters, but I doubt he'll be the same horse in California.
9. Salutos Amigos (Castellano/Jacobson) 6-1: David Jacobson has turned this horse into a machine since getting him earlier this year. He has posted six straight 100+ speed figures, and seven of his last eight. Once again, though, he couldn't even beat PALACE on three occasions, and I don't think he's good enough, so ...
10. Big Macher (T. Baze/Baltas) 12-1: His win in the Bing Crosby notwithstanding, I think he'll be better returning to dirt. That said, he's only won while on or within a neck of the lead, and he's not quick enough to be there today.
11. Bakken (Stevens/C. Brown) 10-1: Lightly raced potential monster here. He was 2-0 when he went to Santa Anita for the Grade 1 Malibu, where he finished a no excuse fifth. Then PALACE narrowly beat him after a six-month layoff before he won an optional claimer. The worry is that he hasn't won from off the pace and has two extremely fast horses immediately to his outside.
12. Fast Anna (Velazquez/Ritvo) 12-1: Speaking of monsters, Bob Baffert — the king of speed — commented last week about how damn fast this horse is. He reportedly said they ought to make him into a quarter horse. He worked 5/8 in :57 flat the other day, but he had to work hard late to do it. He'll likely get to the lead from out there because it's just about the only choice, but I don't see him lasting.
13. Work All Week (Geroux/Brueggemann) 10-1: Then again, maybe this horse will get the lead. He's undefeated — 7-for-7 — on the dirt in his career, but he is also sort of the B team in that he never even ran in a graded event until a Grade 3 score at Keeneland in his last race. From this post, he has a lot of work to do, and people like to bet on undefeated horses. I won't.
14. Bourbon Courage (Santana Jr./Gorder) 20-1: I love that they're finally shortening this horse up after banging him into tough races going long. He should have a big late kick and showed enough speed in his last to be on the pace of a :45.4 half mile, so if he can work out a mid-pack trip while they go :44 up front ... this could be good. I'd certainly much rather bet him than SALUTOS AMIGOS, for instance.
SYSTEM PLAYS: BAKKEN and WORK ALL WEEK are the morning line value plays. BOURBON COURAGE and RICH TAPESTRY are both close.
SUMMARY: INDIANAPOLIS, MICO MARGARITA, BAKKEN and BOURBON COURAGE are the horses I generally like, but make that a very weak feeling. Things feel all wrong for INDIANAPOLIS on the inside with so much speed outside, MICO MARGARITA feels outclassed, BAKKEN is in trouble if he gets cut off early, and BOURBON COURAGE will have a lot of horses to pass either inside or with a very wide trip. In fact, now when I look at it again, RICH TAPESTRY does hold a lot of appeal as a horse with some tactical speed in a decent spot with slower early runners to his outside. This is a tough one.
SYSTEM PLAYS: BAKKEN and WORK ALL WEEK are the morning line value plays. BOURBON COURAGE and RICH TAPESTRY are both close.
SUMMARY: INDIANAPOLIS, MICO MARGARITA, BAKKEN and BOURBON COURAGE are the horses I generally like, but make that a very weak feeling. Things feel all wrong for INDIANAPOLIS on the inside with so much speed outside, MICO MARGARITA feels outclassed, BAKKEN is in trouble if he gets cut off early, and BOURBON COURAGE will have a lot of horses to pass either inside or with a very wide trip. In fact, now when I look at it again, RICH TAPESTRY does hold a lot of appeal as a horse with some tactical speed in a decent spot with slower early runners to his outside. This is a tough one.
No comments:
Post a Comment