The Breeders' Cup is back.
In keeping with tradition, it's time for me to churn out 20,000 words about what I expect to happen in each of the 15 races taking place at Santa Anita on Friday and Saturday.
I've always intended to make this more than just a place where I write about horse racing a few times a year, but since it's not yet, I'd like to draw attention to my last post, where I heartily endorsed the eventual Belmont Stakes winner UNION RAGS.
Anyway, in keeping with last year's format, Part I of the Wothism Breeders' Cup Preview is reserved for some frequently asked questions about the Breeders' Cup:
Question: What the hell is the Breeders' Cup?
Answer: The Breeders' Cup is a 15-race event that takes place on the first Friday and Saturday in every November and is essentially the world championship for horse racing. The Breeders' Cup Classic is akin to the Super Bowl of horse racing -- the best of the best.
Question: Uh, isn't the Kentucky Derby the Super Bowl of horse racing?
Answer: No. I mean, kind of. The Kentucky Derby has more pomp and circumstance, but the Kentucky Derby is a race limited to only three-year-olds. The Breeders' Cup Classic is an event with no age limits on any races except for the four races limited to just two-year-olds. In other words, while the Derby winners are the horses who will be remembered by the general public, the winners of the Breeders' Cup races -- particularly the Classic -- are truly the best in the world.
Question: So, why the hell do they need 15 races to figure this out?
Answer: It's a question many people much smarter than you or I have asked. The simple answer is: More races = more handle = more money. But many of the races make good sense, especially when you consider that many horsemen simply don't like to run females against males if at all possible (you can draw your own sexual bias conclusions here, but the general feeling is that the ladies are often too stubborn and push themselves harder than they ought to against males, which leads to more injuries ... which is obviously the worst case scenario in horse racing). For instance, while the Classic is run on dirt at 10 furlongs (1 1/4 miles) -- the classic distance and what most folks in the industry believe is a true test of champions -- some horses simply weren't built to go that far, or don't like to race on dirt. So there are turf races (at varying distances) and dirt races (at varying distances) so that all types of horses have a chance to prove their mettle. It's the same reason track and field has races like the 100 meter, 200 meter, etc. Some races -- the Breeders' Cup Marathon, in particular -- are widely panned by critics as being unnecessary or even entirely meaningless, but most of the races are worthwhile and help to settle scores that may have not been settled throughout the year. (In horse racing, one of the most fun/irritating points of contention is East Coast vs. West Coast -- due to the amount of strain travel can impose on horses, some horsemen will only bring their horses East or West for the Breeders' Cup races, so this is the first time many of these horses will meet.)
Question: OK ... when are these races and when can I see them?
Answer: Here's the list of post times (listed in CST ... because that's where I live) and the accompanying television coverage:
FRIDAY:
(Dirt) Juvenile Sprint ($500,000) -- 6 furlongs -- 3:06 p.m. -- NBCSports
(Dirt) Marathon ($500,000) -- 1 3/4 miles -- 3:48 p.m. -- NBCSports
Juvenile Fillies Turf ($1,000,000) -- 1 mile -- 4:28 p.m. -- NBCSports
(Dirt) Juvenile Fillies ($2,000,000) -- 1 1/16 miles -- 5:08 p.m. -- NBCSports
Filly and Mare Turf ($2,000,000) -- 1 1/4 miles -- 5:48 p.m. -- NBCSports
(Dirt) Ladies' Classic ($2,000,000) -- 1 1/8 miles -- 6:40 p.m. -- NBCSports
SATURDAY:
Juvenile Turf ($1,000,000) -- 1 mile -- 1:50 p.m. -- HRTV/NBCSports (unclear)
(Dirt) Filly and Mare Sprint ($1,000,000) -- 7 furlongs -- 2:35 p.m. -- NBCSports
Dirt Mile ($1,000,000) -- 1 mile -- 3:14 p.m. -- NBCSports
Turf Sprint ($1,000,000) -- 6.5 furlongs -- 3:57 p.m. -- NBCSports
(Dirt) Juvenile ($2,000,000) -- 1 1/16 miles -- 4:36 p.m. -- NBCSports
Turf ($3,000,000) -- 1 1/2 miles -- 5:18 p.m. -- NBCSports
(Dirt) Sprint ($1,500,000) -- 6 furlongs -- 5:58 p.m. -- NBCSports(Turf) Mile ($2,000,000) -- 1 mile -- 6:40 pm. -- NBCSports
(Dirt) Classic ($5,000,000) -- 1 1/4 miles -- 7:30 p.m. -- NBC
I kind of hate this year's Breeders' Cup TV schedule even more than last year's, and I hated last year's quite a bit. Last year, ABC took a few hours in the middle of the day to show generally uninteresting races like the Juvenile Turf and the Turf Sprint, while the Classic was on ESPN.
This year, at least we get the Classic on a network in primetime, but at the cost of being stuck on NBCSports the rest of the weekend? Ugh. Maybe if the Breeders' Cup spent some of their purse money on securing better TV deals the sport might attract a larger fanbase.
Question: My God, that's a long time to watch horses intermittently run around the track ... which races might actually be worth watching?
Answer: Typically, the Classic on Saturday night is the race to watch if you're only going to tune in for one. This year, however, I would encourage you to tune in on Friday night instead.
This edition of the Ladies' Classic is LOADED. I'll get into specifics in my next post, but you have two undefeated horses that were 2-year-old champions (MY MISS AURELIA last year and AWESOME FEATHER in 2010) ... and they won't even be the favorites. That honor falls to ROYAL DELTA, who won the Ladies' Classic last year and has won three of her four last starts. And then you have LOVE AND PRIDE, the only horse to beat ROYAL DELTA in the last six months, and QUESTING, a horse that seems to have more pure talent and speed than any of the others and was a heavy favorite over MY MISS AURELIA in her last race. And then there's GRACE HALL, a horse that was favored over QUESTING just two months ago! And while neither of the final two have faced the same competition all of the above have, CLASS INCLUDED has 10 wins and six second-place finishes from 16 starts, while INCLUDE ME OUT is the locally-based horse that has won 4 of her last 6. Can you tell I'm excited about this one?
You should definitely watch it.
Beyond that, the Breeders' Cup did a pretty good job of packaging the best races as a lead-in into the Classic. Other than the Turf Sprint (which I think they should have put before the Dirt Mile), I could make a case for even a casual fan having an interest in all of the late-day races.
I'll work backward from the Classic, which is still obviously the big prize. Problem is, it doesn't have all that great of a field in my opinion. We had a lot of defections throughout the year, and the best 3-year-old we're left with is ALPHA, a horse that's on the morning line at 20/1. There are some very good to borderline great horses that are running, but I don't think any of these are brilliant horses that you HAVE to see race. GAME ON DUDE no longer has Chantal Sutherland on his back, and that will take away some of the luster for women. You don't have a horse like UNCLE MO that most people had heard of giving his elders a shot. You don't have anything like ZENYATTA, who carried this event for a couple of years there. (As heartbreaking as it is to share this video: Zenyatta just misses history, watch it and feel the excitement. Man, she was fun to watch even in defeat.)
But still, it's the Classic, and there are actually some horses I think are capable of brilliance -- they just haven't shown it yet. Those are the ones I want to bet on, but we'll get to that more later. Either way, you should watch because I said so.
The race right before it -- the (Turf!) Mile -- actually is a lot more intriguing from just about every viewpoint. Better horses, better storylines ... it's just a really interesting race. You have WISE DAN, a horse that has won on every surface and done so brilliantly. He's the best horse in America according to most. Then you have EXCELEBRATION, a European horse that has won 6 of his last 10 starts ... and the only times he didn't win was when he was facing the best horse in the world (possibly ever), FRANKEL. Then you have the former Kentucky Derby winner ANIMAL KINGDOM making a comeback after being away from the races since February with an injury. If you're only watching one race on Saturday, make it this one.
Finally, there's the Breeders' Cup Sprint. Of the big-name races, this has to be the most wide-open. First, it has 14 horses, so things could get crazy at the start. You have the defending champion of the race in AMAZOMBIE, a couple of speedy 3-year-olds (TRINNIBERG and THE LUMBER GUY) taking on their elders, a couple grizzled veterans in with a huge shot (COIL in particular) and FAST BULLET, a 4-year-old who has only run twice but is undefeated and could just be far and away the best. It doesn't have the storylines of the Turf Mile, but it's unrivaled as a betting race.
So, in short, the casual fan should plan on tuning into NBCSports at 6:30 on Friday night and watching the Ladies' Classic. Then, on Saturday, try to get to the couch by 5:45 for the final three races, or at least make it there by 6:30 so you can see the Mile and the Classic.
That's it for this part of the preview. In parts 2 and 3 (to come in the next few days), I'll break down Friday and Saturday's races.
