MAS JUVENILES. MAS.
The theme is the same as with the other Juvenile races: how good are you at guessing?
PACE OUTLOOK: Warm, with a chance of cool. There are plenty of horses who might want the lead, but only one that I think can get it. I'll explain later.
GENERAL OUTLOOK: ANGELA RENEE might be the weakest morning line favorite in the entire Breeders' Cup. Even in the unpredictable world of juveniles, this one seems nearly impossible to figure. But I will try. Oh, I'll try.
The theme is the same as with the other Juvenile races: how good are you at guessing?
PACE OUTLOOK: Warm, with a chance of cool. There are plenty of horses who might want the lead, but only one that I think can get it. I'll explain later.
GENERAL OUTLOOK: ANGELA RENEE might be the weakest morning line favorite in the entire Breeders' Cup. Even in the unpredictable world of juveniles, this one seems nearly impossible to figure. But I will try. Oh, I'll try.
1. Feathered (Castellano/Pletcher) 8-1: Ran a 97 speed fig two back, but that was a slow pace while on the lead. Ho hum. That will not happen Saturday.
2. Angela Renee (Velasquez/Pletcher) 3-1: We're obviously throwing out the clunker on the Saratoga slop on Aug. 31. But what are we left with? The same kind of win that FEATHERED posted, only with mildly more honest paces. I don't understand the 3-1 morning line here at all.
3. Danette (Desormeaux/Desormeaux) 20-1: Hasn't really shown anything that would make you think she belongs here. Even with a major move forward, she's probably not good enough.
4. Conquest Eclipse (Nakatani/Casse) 4-1: She was beaten by ANGELA RENEE in her last, but I would much rather take CONQUEST ECLIPSE here. She's not a pure deep closer by any means, so I don't think there's a need to worry about the track profile. With the likely brisk pace, I do really like her here.
5. Cristina's Journey (Mena/Romans) 6-1: First off, I loved her Oct. 25th work over the track ... and that wasn't even her best work over the track. She worked a bullet on Oct. 18. On top of that, this is one frontrunner who has set a fast pace and still won. It wasn't against the competition she'll see here, but it's at least something to cling onto.
6. Take Charge Brandi (Espinoza/Lukas) 30-1: Has been beaten by double digit lengths in the past three starts. Don't see it.
7. Majestic Presence (Trujillo/Hollendorfer) 20-1: She was close in the Chandelier before the field ran away from her late. Her workouts have bordered upon monstrous as of late, though, and maybe she just needed a start. At 20-1, worth a shot.
8. Puca (Rosario/Mott) 6-1: The lights went on in the last out for this one as she won by 16 lengths over a maiden field in her third start. With that said, I would have kept her on turf — I'm more impressed by the way she rallied into a slow pace at Saratoga on Aug. 25! She needs to make another big jump in both speed and class to win here, and at 6-1, that's more questions than I want to make her answer with my money.
9. Hennythelovepenny (Perez/Miller) 20-1: Another one that probably belongs on the turf and fits the same profile as PUCA — steps way up in class and doesn't seem good enough.
10. Wonder Gal (Smith/Gyarmati) 12-1: Fits much the same profile as CONQUEST ECLIPSE, only at a likely much higher price with Mike Smith aboard. Sign me up!
11. Top Decile (Napravnik/Stall) 10-1: The post could do this one in, but we don't really know what we have here yet. Her races to date have been impressive and very opposite in style: in her first, she was a head off the lead and rallied by as they moved into the stretch; in her second, she was 12 lengths back at the first call and rallied to miss by just a half length. Could move forward off that effort and must be bet.
12. By The Moon (J. Ortiz/Nevin) 6-1: The Frizette win was a sizzling display early and a walk late. She was comparably slow in the slop a race before that in the Spinaway. It's hard to know, obviously, but I think the post puts me over the edge on leaving this one off any tickets.
SUMMARY: #4 CONQUEST ECLIPSE, #5 CRISTINA'S JOURNEY, #7 MAJESTIC PRESENCE, #10 WONDER GAL and #11 TOP DECILE are all relatively intriguing. Of those, I think CONQUEST ECLIPSE is definitely the most likely winner, but WONDER GAL is very interesting at the higher price and seems like the best value. MAJESTIC PRESENCE is pretty speculative, but it just kind of "feels right." Ditto for TOP DECILE. In the final analysis, I don't really know that I love CRISTINA'S JOURNEY with some of the other speed in her, but her workout was just so professional that I couldn't totally ignore her at this point.
SUMMARY: #4 CONQUEST ECLIPSE, #5 CRISTINA'S JOURNEY, #7 MAJESTIC PRESENCE, #10 WONDER GAL and #11 TOP DECILE are all relatively intriguing. Of those, I think CONQUEST ECLIPSE is definitely the most likely winner, but WONDER GAL is very interesting at the higher price and seems like the best value. MAJESTIC PRESENCE is pretty speculative, but it just kind of "feels right." Ditto for TOP DECILE. In the final analysis, I don't really know that I love CRISTINA'S JOURNEY with some of the other speed in her, but her workout was just so professional that I couldn't totally ignore her at this point.
No comments:
Post a Comment