One of the most difficult parts of handicapping an event like this is removing fandom from the equation. With these big name horses that we all see and talk about all year, it's easy to get attached to one as "your horse." MORENO, for instance, still holds a soft spot in my heart for his gutsy run in filling out the Travers exacta last year. PRAYER FOR RELIEF is always game, and he's filled out some nice exotics in the past.
But this is the Breeders' Cup Classic, and this is the 2014 Wothism Breeders' Cup Classic Preview. I want to win money *today*, not tell you about money I've won in the past (of course, it's too late for that). Let's roll:
PACE OUTLOOK: Fast to blistering. BAYERN and MORENO are going to ruin each other on the front end. MORENO hasn't been competitive if he hasn't been on the lead at the second call, nor has BAYERN. Taking back is simply not an option for either one of these horses. CIGAR STREET is in the 2 hole and also hasn't won a race where he's more than a half-length off the lead at the second call. They all have to go.
GENERAL OUTLOOK: I can't really knock SHARED BELIEF. Who could?!? He has answered every question, even a question that should never be asked (can you win while being grossly floated 8 wide in the first turn?). But. But! Let's take a closer look at the horses he has beaten: CANDY BOY. TOAST OF NEW YORK. FOOTBRIDGE. IMPERATIVE. All of those horses are at least 12-1 on the morning line here. The water gets significantly deeper here, and he has to go 1.25 miles, and it's on a surface at Santa Anita that he didn't seem to get over all that well last time. He's 9/5 on the morning line, but I would be pretty surprised if he wasn't even money by post time. I will look to play against.
1. Prayer for Relief (I. Ortiz/Romans) 30-1: Has always been just a cut below the best. His running style is what I want to see in this race, however, as he should sit in that second tier of horses and come moving late. He has long odds for a reason, though, and there's probably something to be said about John Velazquez opting for CIGAR STREET over PRAYER FOR RELIEF. In the end, I think the 1 1/4 is the backbreaker for me, but he's certainly a must-use in exotics at a big price.
2. Cigar Street (Velasquez/Mott) 12-1: He'll be bet down from this morning line, but I don't understand it much at all. He appears to need to be on the pace; if he can win from on it, he has to show us something new. And as the probable 4th choice? I'd much rather have PRAYER FOR RELIEF.
3. Imperative (Dettori/Papaprodromou) 30-1: Has won 3 of 19 starts lifetime. Has been soundly beaten by SHARED BELIEF, FOOTBRIDGE, TOAST OF NEW YORK and MAJESTIC HARBOR in his last four starts. Very tough to see this one.
4. Moreno (Castellano/Guillot) 20-1: Trainer Eric Guillot has always sworn up and down that 1 1/4 is MORENO's best distance, but the statistics just don't show that. He didn't run his race at all last year at the Breeders' Cup as he contested the lead early but was already in seventh after three quarters in 1:10.2. This is another hard trying horse that has only 3 wins in 22 starts and if he can get away with 1:11 and change, he might be tough to catch, but it's just really hard to see that happening against this field at this level.
5. V.E. Day (Talamo/Jerkens) 20-1: His trainer initially said he didn't plan to run here, only he changed course because the owners said they wanted to take a shot. That's a bad sign. Worse is that he could barely reel in WICKED STRONG in the Travers after they flew early in one of the weirdest run races you'll ever see. At Santa Anita, that kind of collapse will favor someone mid-pack, not someone from the clouds.
6. Shared Belief (Smith/Hollendorfer) 9-5: His ridiculously good Pacific Classic notwithstanding, other horses in this field have run faster races on dirt. BAYERN is obvious, but even beyond BAYERN's pace-aided triumphs, other horses have run faster than SHARED BELIEF on dirt. He went 1 1/4 on the fake stuff and if he runs back to that, he wins with relative ease. But he has to prove that to me to bet on him against a field like this at even money.
7. Bayern (Garcia/Baffert) 6-1: It's GAME ON DUDE all over again. If he has a clear lead, he will win. If he doesn't, he won't. If MORENO and CIGAR STREET break poorly, then BAYERN might have a chance. Otherwise, I simply cannot see it.
8. Zivo (Lezcano/Brown) 15-1: Broke through with a smashing Suburban win in July at 1 1/4 miles, then got beat by 1.75 lengths to TONALIST while being steadied to avoid the fallen WICKED STRONG in the Jockey Club Gold Cup in September. My initial reaction to this horse was that his style won't translate well to Santa Anita, but fast pace or slow pace, he's brought the goods. On the other hand, he looks a lot like PRAYER FOR RELIEF at lower odds. Hmm.
9. Toast of New York (Spencer/Osborne) 12-1: Can he run on dirt? After giving SHARED BELIEF a real scare on synthetic at Del Mar, it's obvious he has enough class to compete at this level despite the uninspiring pedigree. But ... my answer is no, he can't run on dirt.
10. Footbridge (Bejarano/Harty) 30-1: DAMN THIS HORSE. I've been on his train at long odds in his last two starts, and he ran well to finish third behind SHARED BELIEF, 2.5 lengths back, in the Awesome Again. Will the extra quarter mile make a difference? Well, he did win at this distance back on April 10 in a $40k optional claimer. Bejarano was on for that ride, and he's back on today. He was bred to win at this distance. Worth a shot.
11. Tonalist (Rosario/Clement) 5-1: Speaking of horses bred to win classic events, TONALIST just picked up his second grade 1 of the year while employing a new closing style with blinkers off in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. If you take the hype out of the equation, there's not much separating TONALIST and SHARED BELIEF in my eyes. The worries are the poor workout and the new closing style, which may not play well at Santa Anita. But ... at 5-1 vs. 9-5, you know who I'd be backing.
12. Candy Boy (Nakatani/Sadler) 20-1: CALIFORNIA CHROME and SHARED BELIEF have been beating him like a drum dating back to last year. He couldn't beat the nearly fallen TAPITURE in the West Virginia Derby, so there's little reason to think he could step way up and win here.
13. California Chrome (Espinoza/Sherman) 4-1: Nothing about the Pennsylvania Derby was set up right for him: The way he was working going into the race, the way he had to travel across the country, the way he was inside of horses, the way BAYERN walked on the lead. It was a disaster. Draw a line through it. From there, you start looking back to his earlier races, and the Belmont was actually not a bad race given the trouble he had, the injury and the distance. He looked so good in his workout and I think the outside post gives him the ideal position to sit off of the pace in the clear and pounce when everyone starts fading up front. What's rough, of course, is that he won the Derby and Preakness, so you have to wonder how much money he'll attract. Gulp.
14. Majestic Harbor (Baze/McCarthy) 20-1: He romped on this track at this distance on June 28, but that was about the weirdest race you'll ever see with the field wildly strung out. He has been soundly beaten by SHARED BELIEF, TOAST OF NEW YORK, IMPERATIVE and FOOTBRIDGE since. I will pass.
SYSTEM PLAYS: Three horses make the cut in this event, and I can see why with all three:
MORENO 20-1: In my mind, MORENO is BAYERN without the hype. Both should be about 12-1 per my system, so MORENO is a solid overlay.
PRAYER FOR RELIEF 30-1: Again, I pretty much agree here. The system says 25-1 is fair on PRAYER FOR RELIEF, and that seems correct — he needs things to break the right way, but he's consistent enough that he'll be in the mix.
ZIVO 15-1: I have him at 13-1, so this is a small play, but a play nonetheless. I'm definitely conflicted but certainly agree he should be in exotics.
The rest of the field in "percent off" order (i.e. Tonalist at 5-1 vs. 5.9-1 on my line is 12.76% off):
TONALIST 12.76%
CALIFORNIA CHROME 22.29%
SHARED BELIEF 33.64%
CIGAR STREET 35.17%
VE DAY 39.84%
FOOTBRIDGE 42.54%
BAYERN 42.71%
MAJESTIC HARBOR 45.34%
IMPERATIVE 50.48%
CANDY BOY 51.95%
TOAST OF NEW YORK 56.6%
SUMMARY: CALIFORNIA CHROME is my clear pick here, and I really don't feel that's me being a fanboy. He has won at this distance on dirt, and his best races on dirt are better than SHARED BELIEF's. His style fits well at this track, he's working great, he got the perfect post ... all of the pieces are there.
Now, on the other hand, the question becomes: What is a fair price? In a field like this, 4-1 seems about as low as I would want to go. There's nothing worse than setting a relatively arbitrary line like that and then seeing your horse win at 3-1, though, so you can rest assured I will be betting him regardless in a race like this. I may have discipline on a Saturday in July, but when it comes to the Breeders' Cup Classic, I will fire away.
Beyond Chrome, I will likely trust the mixture of the system and my intuition and make win bets of varying sizes on PRAYER FOR RELIEF and ZIVO, as well as FOOTBRIDGE.
Finally, my horses to use in exotics would be: PRAYER FOR RELIEF, MORENO, ZIVO, TONALIST, SHARED BELIEF, FOOTBRIDGE. Granted, that's half the field, but since I'll likely be wheeling behind CALIFORNIA CHROME, it doesn't feel so bad.
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