The (sort-of-annual, mostly-ripped-off) Wothism College Football Playoff

I've done various riffs on the notion of a college football playoff in past years via various mediums, and now that we actually will have a four-team playoff next year, this post as a whole loses some of its luster.

HOWEVER ...

The four-team playoff still has one potential major flaw (there are many minor flaws, but I'll focus on the major one here) that I see: A smaller conference team still has almost no hope of making the national title game. Northern Illinois, for instance, was undefeated but only ranked No. 14 before their MAC title game loss.

You can say a lot of things about the schedule the Huskies played or the way they beat inferior teams, but almost any amount of non-conference scheduling wouldn't make up for the weak schedule NIU played this season. And you can't have teams switching conferences all the time like they have the past few years. It's unsustainable.

That's why I still like the 16-team model proposed by my former editor at the Washington County Daily News, Mr. Larry Hanson. It keeps the regular season and conference championships every bit as meaningful as they are now (except for maybe a few teams, which we'll get to in a minute), while also giving every team that a reasonable person would say *should* have a shot.

The model is also very simple: Each conference champion gets in plus at-large bids to the top-ranked BCS teams that *did not* win their conference.

Here's how that would look this season (BCS rankings listed first, when applicable):

1 ACC: Florida State (13-0)
2 SEC: Auburn (12-1)
4 Big Ten: Michigan State (12-1)
5 Pac-12: Stanford (11-2)
6 Big 12: Baylor (11-1)
15 American: UCF (11-1)
20 Mountain West: Fresno State (11-1)
MAC: Bowling Green (10-3)
C-USA: Rice (10-3)
Sun Belt: Louisiana Lafayette (8-4)

3 Alabama (11-1)
7 Ohio State (12-1)
8 Missouri (11-2)
9 South Carolina (10-2)
11 Oregon (10-2)
12 Oklahoma (10-2)

Part of me thinks the the conference champions should get higher seeds (i.e. Bowling Green is seeded eighth and hosts Rice, while UCF is seeded sixth and hosts Alabama), but let's be honest: That wouldn't fly, and really, it doesn't make a lot of sense. So, I would seed this based on the actual BCS standings, and seed teams based on their overall conference strength if they're not in the BCS top 25.

To wit, here's the first round (my projected final scores in parentheses after the matchup) to be played on Dec. 14:

#16 Louisiana-Lafayette at #1 Florida State (52-6 FSU)
#9 South Carolina at #8 Missouri (35-27 Missouri)

#12 UCF at #5 Stanford (31-17 Stanford)
#13 Fresno State at #4 Michigan State (28-20 Michigan State)

#11 Oklahoma at #6 Baylor (42-17 Baylor)
#14 Bowling Green at #3 Alabama (35-10 Alabama)

#10 Oregon at #7 Ohio State (38-35 Ohio State)
#15 Rice at #2 Auburn (40-20 Auburn)

Second round (Dec. 21):

#8 Missouri at #1 Florida State (42-17 FSU)
#5 Stanford at #4 Michigan State (21-14 Stanford)

#6 Baylor at #3 Alabama (31-30 Alabama)
#7 Ohio State at #2 Auburn (38-31 Ohio State)

Third round (neutral on Dec. 28):

#5 Stanford vs. #1 Florida State (35-17 FSU)
#7 Ohio State vs. #3 Alabama (28-24 Alabama)

Title game (neutral on Jan. 6):

#3 Alabama vs. #1 Florida State (28-20 FSU)

I'm the first to say that my predictions are likely too bullish for Florida State -- after all, Alabama was just a 10-point favorite *at* Auburn, and now Florida State is an 8-point favorite on a neutral field against Auburn, so Vegas may even have Alabama favored over Florida State -- but it sure would be nice to find out about FSU for sure.

I don't think that highly of Auburn at all -- personally or from a numbers perspective -- so if Florida State does indeed win the title, you could make a very strong case that they "proved it" less than any champion I can remember. Clemson and Auburn are two deeply flawed teams, in my opinion, but those would FSU's two signature wins. Not great.

This 16-team system would have required wins over Missouri, Stanford and Alabama. There would be no free lunch in this system. Granted, it's just like the NFL playoffs where the best team doesn't always win (ahem, Ravens last year), but at least this system would a) give everyone who possibly deserves a chance that chance, and b) require everyone to beat the best teams to win it at all.

Four teams next year will be a nice change of pace (this year, it would have been Michigan State vs. Florida State and Alabama vs. Auburn again ... not all that exciting, but again, even that one extra game against elite competition would make me feel better about it), but I'll still cling to this 16-team model for quite a while.

2013 Breeders' Cup Saturday

Well, that was fun.

After I hit four exactas in the five
Breeders' Cup races on Friday, I'm counting on
THE FUGUE to win me plenty all by herself on Saturday.

I hit four of five exactas on Breeders' Cup Friday, two trifectas and one superfecta. I've had a handful of days where I won more money this year -- most of the exactas were very formful results, and I spread pretty wide on a few of them -- and I've had days where I was more "on" -- none of the horses I really liked actually won -- but putting up results like that just feels fantastic.

Nine more races here on Saturday. The biggest variable is how speed-favoring the track was today -- it was a pretty big joke, actually. Santa Anita should be downright embarrassed that a horse can go 22 and change and then 44 change, and then stagger home in nearly 26 and change and still not be at all challenged at a flat mile. That's not championship racing.

What's tough is that, per what I've read on Twitter, Santa Anita is doing some things that they're hoping will make it more fair tomorrow. I can't imagine that's going to reverse everything, but I'm going to operate under the premise that it's going to play a little bit more fairly tomorrow than it did today while still somewhat favoring speed. Here goes:

Juvenile Fillies: My initial reaction was that this race would be won from off the pace, but upon further review, while there are two horses that absolutely need the lead, this field actually seems pretty balanced to me. So, with the bias in play, I think horses closer to the pace have an advantage. ARTEMIS AGROTERA is undefeated and I'm guessing won't be a great bet on her own, but she has won both as the leader in a fast-paced race and just off the pace in a slow-paced race. SCANDALOUS ACT is stepping up in class but can't be ignored here as a front-runner based on the bias and her speed figures. I mentioned SECRET COMPASS the last time, but she benefited from a very fast pace to win at 10-1. I think she'll be overbet here. SHE'S A TIGER is the best horse to my eye ... she set that fast pace and only lost by a head. If she can go a bit slower, there's no reason to think she won't win here. SWEET REASON would also be impossible to leave off the ticket; she's a closer, but she's only been a few lengths off, and that's a margin that she can make up. UNTAPABLE is undefeated and looks capable of sitting closely enough to get a piece. I prefer the first three to the latter two, and I'll try those.

THE PLAY: ARTEMIS AGROTERA-SCANDALOUS ACT-SHE'S A TIGER-SWEET REASON-UNTAPABLE $0.10 superfecta ($12). ARETMIS AGROTERA-SCANDALOUS ACT-SHE'S A TIGER $2 exacta box ($12). Total bet = $24

Filly and Mare Turf: LAUGHING might be the most fortunate horse in the world, because she might be getting her fifth consecutive perfect pace scenario in this race. As the only confirmed pacesetter here, you can't ignore her chances of wiring this field. I also think that MARKETING MIX, although seemingly perhaps not what she was last year in her second-place finish here, will get a fantastic trip under Gary Stevens and could be part of a merry go-round race with LAUGHING. DANK was extremely eye-catching in her Beverly D win, and although I didn't think it was as impressive as others did, you can't leave her off. ROMANTICA looks dangerous coming over from Europe. Although she only managed seventh in her last start, she has won 2-of-4 over "good" ground in Europe (essentially firm here) and was second in the other two starts over good. In fact, she's my win/place/show play in this race -- I tried this race with THE FUGUE last year and got extremely unlucky, so I'm hoping she'll get a good trip here. TIZ FLIRTATIOUS ran down MARKETING MIX on a very slow pace last time and it would be impossible to leave this one, who has never finished worse than third, off any tickets. LADY OF SHAMROCK and QUSCHI are two others that I don't like to necessarily win, but could fill out the bottom of some exotics. I just don't really like MARKETING MIX or DANK when it comes down to it. They both feel overrated to me, so while they very may well win or run well, I'm looking for a minor upset. I'm not going deep on the exotics here because the only horse I truly don't like is EMOLLIENT -- she has not impressed me at all with her turf efforts. I might throw small win bets on LADY OF SHAMROCK and QUSCHI if they drift up at all from their 20/1 morning lines.

THE PLAY: $10 win/place/show on ROMANTICA ($30). ROMANTICA-LAUGHING-TIZ FLIRTATIOUS $2 exacta box ($12). Total bet = $42.

Filly and Mare Sprint: This might be the most interesting race to look at from a speed bias dynamic standpoint. My initial thought was that this would be a pretty much average race from a pace standpoint, but given the bias, I think a few horses that might normally be more relaxed will be sent. Specifically, I think SWEET LULU and STARSHIP TRUFFLES are likely to go forward more than they might have on a less pace-friendly track. So I foresee a four-way pace battle with those two, ISMENE and TEDDY'S PROMISE.

This is a complicated race, so I'm going to narrow it down some. I'm tossing SUMMER APPLAUSE on the cutback, ISMENE on the big class hike, RENEE'S TITAN, GREAT HOT and BOOK REVIEW.

I don't particularly like DANCE TO BRISTOL at the price with the bias, but would never leave her off any exotics as she has only finished worse than second one time in 19 starts. I liked SWEET LULU in my initial thoughts and think she's worthy of a look with the speed bias, but I think she's just a cut below at this stage of her career.

JUDY THE BEAUTY beat GROUPIE DOLL in their last, but she was also beaten by STARSHIP TRUFFLES in July, so it's not as if that means a whole lot. JUDY THE BEAUTY feels destined for a respectable 3rd/4th place finish as a steady, keeps coming performer.

TEDDY'S PROMISE feels like the real speed bias test for tomorrow. I think she's the quickest in this race and should be on the lead, but with the others I mentioned not letting her off easy, we could see a repeat of last year where she ran the first half mile in 44 seconds flat and faded to eighth.

DANCE CARD is very interesting in her second race back after a nearly year-long break after winning the G1 Gazelle last November. And although she didn't show much pace in her last race, she was brushed at the gate, and she led in her starts at three, so she may be closer than her running style alone would show.

GROUPIE DOLL is impossible to look past, obviously. She's only 1-for-3 this year, but she hasn't been the beneficiary of good pace scenarios. I don't think she's what she was last year, but she's still a deserving favorite here.

STARSHIP TRUFFLES is my pick in this one. Her Princess Rooney win was the best race any of these have run this year, and she's had trouble in her last two starts. From the 3 hole, I expect her to go to the lead with TEDDY'S PROMISE, only I think she has more stamina. The worry is that the other speed horses break better and she gets stuck behind horses, but at a 15-1 morning line, that's worth the risk.

THE PLAY: $10 win-place-show on STARSHIP TRUFFLES ($30). $1 exacta box on STARSHIP TRUFFLES-GROUPIE DOLL-DANCE CARD-SWEET LULU ($12). Total bet = $42.

Turf Sprint: There's really a surprising lack of speed in this race, which gives the speed horse RENEESGOTZIP a huge edge here. Last year in this race, the early pace was hot and she was in fourth after the first call and third after the second call. She ultimately finished third, but she should be able to do it all her own way on the front end this time. I do expect TIGHTEND TOUCHDOWN to go early, but he doesn't bother me at all -- he hasn't run at this level, nor does he seem to be able to stretch his speed beyond five flat furlongs.

CAPO BASTONE was my "hunch" pick, but without any pace and in his first run on this tricky course, he actually almost seems like an underlay at an 8/1 ML. That said, he's going to come flying late and he should actually move forward on turf according to the pedigree stats, so I won't leave him off.

I actually have as surprisingly dim view of MIZDIRECTION here. She's obviously a master of this turf course and the defending champ, but she ran that race so differently than any of her other races. She was 11th and eight lengths back in that one, but has never been closer than three lengths back in any of her other tries. If you throw that out, her figures just don't look that great compared to the others here. I'll play against and tip my hat if she wins. I also will be looking past UNBRIDLED'S NOTE for that very reason -- I think there are some other classier competitors trying this course that are bigger prices, so why not take a shot.

SPRING TO THE SKY is tricky since he has run his last two races with a lot of pace, bucking what had been his style in the past. I'm leaving him off my tickets due to his poor performance in graded races in the past -- he's 0-for-4 with a third, a fifth, and a pair of ninth-place finishes.

CARACORTADO seems to be a "wise guy" pick, and while I think he'll be overbet, if he gets a faster pace than I anticipate, he might well be the one to beat.

Of all the horses that have run on this turf course, CHIPS ALL IN is the most interesting to me. I still don't think he's a great contender, but his running style might suit very well if things go a bit faster than expected up front. HAVELOCK is one that I don't really love as there are a lot of questions, but he's my top closer and seems likely to get a piece unless he runs out of gas at 6.5 furlongs.

People have almost been laughing at JERANIMO for trying this race, but he did win the G1 Eddie Read in July and this is an easier spot than that, so 12-1 seems really generous to me. I don't necessarily like the artficial and dirt tries in his last two, but getting back to turf should be a big upgrade for him.

THE PLAY: $4 win-place-show on RENEESGOTZIP and JERANIMO ($24). $1 exacta box on RENEESGOTZIP-JERANIMO-HAVELOCK-CARACORTADO-CAPO BASTONE ($20). Total bet = $44.

Juvenile: As biased as the track was today, you still didn't necessarily want to be ON the lead. You wanted to be near the pace, but leading was not necessarily a winning strategy (with GOLDENCENTS being the exception, although that was possibly just a case of the best horse winning -- not a bias). Since I don't have an interest in betting on any horse that has only won ON the lead at the second call because this pace will be absolutely scintillating, here's the list of horses I'll consider at all: BOND HOLDER, MEDAL COUNT, SMARTY'S ECHO, STRONG MANDATE, TAP IT RICH, WE MISS ARTIE.

I don't want to necessarily toss all of the horses that can only win on the lead, but they all generally seem like a crapshoot and they're just not efficient betting options.

WE MISS ARTIE has just been slow and has won by crawling down the stretch at KEENELAND and sitting right on top of the pace in a slowly run turf race. MEDAL COUNT has also run slow figs.

STRONG MANDATE never got into the Champagne, finishing a well-beaten seventh. He only won on the lead of a slow race and in the slop, so I'll pass here.

SMARTY'S ECHO got beat by WE MISS ARTIE in his last, but he's one that you would expect to run better on the dirt and he has only run on the fake stuff. Still, he would have to jump up a lot to be a contender here.

TAP IT RICH was off slow before advancing throughout to win, so he may actually have more speed than he showed in his last. He takes a big class hike here but as a $510,000 purchase, this is where he belongs. Interesting option. BOND HOLDER also looks worthwhile. as the winner of the Grade 1 Front Runner here. Both of these are suitable closers because they've already dealt with the Santa Anita kickback that's supposedly so nasty.

In the search for early speed types, I only wanted those that could win while setting a fast pace: HAVANA and NEW YEAR'S DAY. DIAMOND BACHELOR does actually also qualify, but I'll be surprised if he's as good on dirt as he was on turf.

Two late speed and two early speed horses smells like a tri to me.

THE PLAY: $1 exacta/$0.50 trifecta boxes on TAP IT RICH-BOND HOLDER-HAVANA-NEW YEAR'S DAY. Total bet = $24.

Turf:

The more I looked at this race, the more it became clear to me that THE FUGUE is an absolute standout. LITTLE MIKE may actually get the same type of trip he did last year with SKYRING in the race, but that seems more unlikely than not. POINT OF ENTRY is no doubt the best America has to offer, he has been off since June 8. He ran well in a 1 3/8 mile race off a layoff back in July 2012, but he beat CENTER DIVIDER and TAHOE LAKE that day. This field is better than that by, well, a lot.

BIG BLUE KITTEN, INDY POINT, REAL SOLUTION and VAGABOND SHOES all seem equally as likely to make some noise down the stretch. I'd be hard pressed to separate them.

So, I won't.

THE PLAY: $20 to win-place-show on THE FUGUE. Total bet = $60.

*****NOTE: I'm actually going to wait on handicapping the final three races until I can see how the track bias situation looks -- it's going to have a pretty large impact on who I play in the sprint for sure, and likely the Classic to an extent, as well.*****

OK, the speed bias seems somewhat lessened but still a small factor, so more or less how I began the day's capping. Here goes:

Sprint:

These are sprint horses, obviously, so it's impossible to assume this pace will be a truly slow pace, particularly with the speed bias. That said, I don't think it's going to be absolutely boiling on the front end.

Either way, JUSTIN PHILLIP is impossible to ignore as the best off the pace horse, if not just the best horse in the race. This doesn't strike me as the classiest bunch to ever run in the Sprint, and his keep-coming style, while at odds with the bias and likely not a great win bet, seems almost a cinch to hit the trifecta.

My easy tosses: TRINNIBERG (not the same as he was, even at his best this year), WINE POLICE (just literally see no way), MAJESTIC STRIDE (early speed type that doesn't seem to have enough early speed for these), THE LUMBER GUY (lots of issues here), FAST BULLET (not the same in Lukas' barn), BAHAMIAN SQUALL (just doesn't seem quite good enough to win against these with just 4-of-14 lifetime record).

I'm really having an impossible time with the final six. SUM OF THE PARTS and PRIVATE ZONE are the two pace factors I like, and I think PRIVATE ZONE is likely better, but he's 3-1 and SUM OF THE PARTS is 12-1. I want to include both.

SECRET CIRCLE has boundless potential to rout these and has to be considered even if I think his last race was a cut below what he needs to win. JUSTIN PHILIP, as mentioned, would have to be included.

Finally, we come to LAUGH TRACK and GENTLEMEN'S BET. GENTLEMEN'S BET would be tough to leave out because he has the tactical speed to sit right behind the pace and move by in the stretch. LAUGH TRACK is the second-longest shot in this field, but I see something here. In his lone start on actual dirt, he was fourth in the extremely classy Alysheba going 1 1/16 miles, which I don't think is his best distance. He should really move forward on the dirt as opposed to all-weather, too, so I'm willing to take a shot at 20-1.

I'm going to wait to see the will pays to decide which direction below I'm going.

THE PLAY:Exacta or superfecta box of SUM OF THE PARTS-PRIVATE ZONE-SECRET CIRCLE-JUSTIN PHILIP-GENTLEMEN'S BET-LAUGH TRACK. NOTE: The payoffs look plenty juicy for most of these exacta combinations since SECRET CIRCLE is a headscratchingly strong favorite, so I'm actually playing the exacta and dumping SECRET CIRCLE from the superfecta and going for a monster payoff if he runs out of the top four.

Mile:

SILVER MAX, OBVIOUSLY and BRIGHT THOUGHT. Those three are probably going to go at it on the lead. I can't dismiss SILVER MAX or OBVIOUSLY, though -- those are two that seem to thrive the faster they go. BRIGHT THOUGHT off the massive layoff would be a pretty big shocker.

Some of these are easy tosses: HE BE FIRE N ICE, NO JET LAG CRISTOFORO COLOMBO and SILENTIO.

The rest? WISE DAN, obviously, should win ... but I don't consider him a no-brainer. Either one of the two speed horses mentioned above could get away and be gone, and OLYMPIC GLORY is world-class.

And all of that is ignoring ZA APPROVAL. I don't know enough about OLYMPIC GLORY to know if he's really a late horse or a mid-packer, but ZA APPROVAL is the best horse that's most likely to benefit from a hot early pace. I don't LOVE this horse, but he should be coming late and seems very likely to hit the board.

THE PLAY: $4 WPS on ZA APPROVAL ($12). $1 exacta box on SILVER MAX-OBVIOUSLY-WISE DAN-OLYMPIC GLORY-ZA APPROVAL ($20). $0.10 superfecta box on the same ($12).

Classic:

Here we go. THE BIG ONE.

Given the track bias, I expect FORT LARNED, GAME ON DUDE and MORENO to definitely be gunning for the lead, and you may even see somewhat surprising factors like PAYNTER and MUCHO MACHO MAN.

From a pure pace and track dynamic standpoint, the horses that can sit just a bit off the pace and then go get extra consideration from me. FLAT OUT, PALACE MALICE and MUCHO MACHO MAN seem like these types, but again, MUCHO MACHO MAN was right on FORT LARNED's flank last year, so he may be more forwardly placed.

What's tough is that the race shape and dynamic are really in opposition to the track bias -- I would normally look for closers here, but even though they closed in the Juvenile, these horses are classy and they don't quit.

I'm a little surprised, but FORT LARNED looks like he'll be my win bet. He has to be on the lead to win, but the good news is that I think he is clearly the fastest and will be. MORENO will be his toughest competition for that lead, but I literally do not think GAME ON DUDE can get the lead. I would include him in exotics, but I don't think he's a good win bet.

Should the pace collapse like I think there's a good likelihood it will, MUCHO MACHO MAN does seem to be the best play as he should sit in the second tier and always comes with his run down the lane. FLAT OUT never seems to disappoint, but I will try to play against him today. LAST GUNFIGHTER lacks the class and speed. PAYNTER would be a great story, but he hasn't ever done anything that makes me think he belongs at this topmost level.

I don't like WILL TAKE CHARGE much, but he's the one closing type that I think has a real shot. Meanwhile, PALACE MALICE is just ultra consistent and should sit that beautiful trip.

People are ignoring PLANTEUR in favor of DECLARATION OF WAR, and it's easy to see why. If you had to pick one, you would pick DECLARATION OF WAR. Based on the speed bias, though, and a tidbit I read about DECLARATION OF WAR not handling kickback when he was in America, I'm not sure I want either on my tickets.

I'm really trying to show some restraint in betting this race. I just don't have a strong feeling about this at all, and the horses I want to root for, I would be inclined to bet against. Stay tuned for my play!

THE PLAY: Well, my numbers tell me FORT LARNED, and while my brain says he's going to have a wicked trip on the front end, I'm willing to take that shot at the astronomical price of 13-1. Honestly, how he's 13-1 and GAME ON DUDE is 9-5 is mind-boggling. I'll also bet MUCHO MACHO MAN based on the trip I expect him to get. $10 Win-Place on FORT LARNED and MUCHO MACHO MAN ($40). And, well, it's the Breeders' Cup Classic, so I'll try to hit the super: MUCHO MACHO MAN-FORT LARNED-PALACE MALICE-GAME ON DUDE-WILL TAKE CHARGE. I don't feel great about leaving out MORENO (so gritty, but I think this level is too much for him) or FLAT OUT (he's always coming late, but the bias might be too much for him here), but it's worth the $12 stab in the dark. Finally, I'll give MUCHO MACHO MAN-FORT LARNED-PALACE MALICE a $2 exacta box shot.

$64 is pretty light for me in a race like the Breeders' Cup Classic, but I just don't have a great feel for this race. Should be fun regardless!

2013 Breeders' Cup Friday

It's finally here — the best two days of racing all year.

CLOSE HATCHES is my pick to
upset the Breeders' Cup Distaff.

This will be plenty long as it is, so there's no need to get too lengthy in the preamble. For previous writings about this year's Breeders' Cup, click here and here. Here's my breakdown of the five Breeders' Cup races on Friday:

Marathon: I see a good deal of speed in this race. After taking a closer look, I'm pretty much ready to dismiss my initial thought of OLD TIME HOCKEY in this one. Between exiting a turf race and nothing a lifetime top in that turf race, I just don't know that he's worth the risk. COMMANDER is my top early speed selection, but I think he'll have plenty of company up top. WORLDY is my overall top pick due to his recent performances and getting beaten by FORT LARNED, PRAYER FOR RELIEF and GOLDEN TICKET in his last three. I really don't like POOL PLAY, INDIAN JONES or CEASE. BLUESKIESNRAINBOWS is sort of interesting, and I really have no idea what to make of LONDON BRIDGE or EVER RIDER. Yeah, so ... I am really just grasping at straws here. It's completely inscrutable. When you ask a random allotment of horses to run further than they ever have on a surface they may not be familiar with, how do you predict what happens?!? I'm tempted to try a WORLDLY-EVER RIDER-COMMANDER-SUNS OUT GUNS OUT-BLUESKIESNRAINBOWS superfecta, but then I think about POOL PLAY and INDIAN JONES coming late and getting a piece ... and, really, forget getting cute or betting this one too hard.

THE PLAY: $4 to win/place/show on WORDLY (insanely light, but really, I just don't have much of a feeling on this!) I'll also play a $1 exacta box of WORDLY, COMMANDER, SUNS OUT GUNS OUT and EVER RIDER. Why not. Total bet: $24

Juvenile Turf: This race, on the other hand, looks pretty slow to me on the front end. In other words, I think it will be run very much like a European turf race, which I think clearly favors the Euros -- as if they weren't already fairly clearly better. GIOVANI BOLDINI looks quite dangerous here, as does OUTSTRIP. Gun to my head, I would take OUTSTRIP of these two -- but narrowly. Due to the pace dynamic, BOBBY'S KITTEN may just obliterate this field. He was right on a blistering pace in the G3 Pilgrim, but that was no worry ... he just kept right on going, and I don't think the cutback in distance will hurt him any. I don't know that BON ACCORD will necessarily win, but I do like him to run better than what many might expect. He has only been on the turf once, a win at 5 furlongs in the Calder Dash at odds of 46-1. He's 20-1 on the morning line and could spice up my exotics.

THE PLAY: $1 Exacta and $.50 trifecta box with BOBBY'S KITTEN-BON ACCORD-OUTSTRIP-GIOVANI BOLDINI ($12 and $12); $4 Win-place-show on BON ACCORD. Total bet: $36

Dirt Mile: I think the pace here will be quite fast, although perhaps not quite blistering, whereas he has it between moderate and soft, while his late speed rating average is only "fair." I mentioned in an earlier thoughts post that I think this race is fantastic, and after running my numbers on it, I have not changed my position on that whatsoever. I'm comfortable throwing out the following right away: ALPHA (hasn't won without a slow pace and/or sloppy track), CENTRALINTELIGENCE (not sure why he would choose this race instead of the sprint; mile seems too far for him), FED BIZ (hasn't been good enough at this level), HOLY LUTE (stepping up too far in class).

But I really should come at this race first from a different perspective. VERRAZANO is an absolute standout when I laid out all of the numbers. He has both the best early and sustained pace, and he's my clear-cut winner. 

The worry, of course, is that they go too fast up front, so that's why I'm going to look a little bit deeper. PANTS ON FIRE and GOLDENCENTS both have shown the capability of coming from a bit off the pace, and GOLDEN TICKET is my top late running horse. I was actually pretty surprised at this, but I can make a much better case for him than HYMN BOOK. 

The horses I'm really struggling with are: BROADWAY EMPIRE, BRUJO DE OLLEROS and TAPTOWNE. I'm pretty comfortable tossing BROADWAY EMPIRE and TAPTOWNE overall -- I think they're the speed of the speed, and it would really take a herculean effort to go as fast as I think they will and still hold on since they're both taking steps up in class. That said, TAPTOWNE has run triple-digit figures in 6 of his last 8 starts and always seems to hang around for a piece. BRUJO DE OLLEROS is the most difficult because he really hasn't had a suitable running line to compare against the likely pace dynamic of this race. I don't think he can win, but he can certainly run into the exotics.

THE PLAY: $10 VERRAZANO to win/place/show ($30); exacta/trifecta box VERRAZANO-GOLDENCENTS-PANTS ON FIRE-GOLDEN TICKET ($12 and $12); those four on top and boxed below with TAPTOWNE and BRUJO DE OLLEROS in a superfecta ($12 24 ). 

(UPDATE: TAPTOWNE has scratched, so just including BRUJO DE OLLEROS in that super for a $12 bet. Total bet: $66)

Juvenile Fillies Turf: This just smells like another absolute blanket finish with the strongest late kick winning. That smells like another recipe for a Euro to win if you ask me, although I wouldn't ignore a frontrunner getting loose and holding on if I can find one.

And guess what? I did. I found two, actually -- NESSO and READY TO ACT. NESSO has set fairly quick paces in her last two starts yet has held on for second-place finishes to CLENOR. If she doesn't have to run so fast this time, I like her chances. Then there's READY TO ACT, who I think will be a good price after bolting in her last and dumping her rider while two lengths in front in the stretch. 

The Euros are almost impossible for me to separate. AL THAKIRA seems like an open book -- she has won 2-of-2, with one of those field being very high quality, but who knows. CHRISELLIAM won her last at a higher class than any American by far. I'd rather have her than VORDA, who has never run a full mile, but she seems really tough, too. 

TESTA ROSSI is the one American closer (former Euro herself) that I like because she closed strongly into a slow pace to win her last. 

THE PLAY: $1 Exacta box NESSO-READY TO ACT-AL THAKIRA-CHRISELLIAM-VORDA-TESTA ROSSI (seems kind of silly to box up six horses in the exacta, but I don't really want to leave any of them out, and the costs of some of the other exotics get prohibitive with that many horses). Total bet: $30

Distaff:  It's pretty clear right off the bat that STREET GIRL is extremely outclassed, and she has never run beyond 1 1/16 miles. But I can almost make a case for her -- only beaten two lengths in the Cotillion after stumbling at the start and only beaten 1 3/4 lengths in the Ballerina despite a slow pace. She hasn't ever ran a better speed figure than 96 on a fast track, and that's just about the equivalent of ROYAL DELTA's worst race, ever. STREET GIRL will not win, but I do think she may close into a slow pace and get a piece.

AUTHENTICITY seems to be getting some talk as a darkhorse in this one, but I don't really see it. She has been soundly defeated by BEHOLDER and ROYAL DELTA in her last two starts without any real excuse -- she sat right off of each and just couldn't produce the required run to go by in the stretch. 

BEHOLDER has run huge in the past, and is 5-of-6 at Santa Anita. But she really hasn't beaten anyone beyond AUTHENTICITY, and when she has been pressed to fractions above the par, she's only batting 1-for-3. I don't know what kind of odds she'll go off at, but they'll be too low for me to consider.

PRINCESS OF SYLMAR has the look of a horse that should have taken the rest of the year off as originally planned. After winning the Beldame, that's what everyone assumed was in store ... but then the connections changed course and decided to run her after all. What's interesting with her is that she has this perception of being well off the pace, but really she has been within four lengths at the first call in every race but the Oaks, and within 2.5 lengths at the second call in every race but her debut. That's not necessarily bad, but food for thought when you consider her being close to a fast, fast pace. What really has me against her here is just the intent -- she already looked "over the top" in the Beldame based on a 99 speed fig, and I just wonder if she really wants another race against these. I'll bet against at a low prices as one of the "big three."

If I had to bet one of the favorites, ROYAL DELTA would be it. At her best, she'll blow this field away. If she's anywhere near even money, I'll bet on her to win-place-show. She's just the best there is.

But the horse nobody is talking about is her barnmate CLOSE HATCHES. She beat PRINCESS OF SYLMAR at this distance back in April, and after poor showings in the Kentucky Oaks and Acorn, she bounced back to dominate the Mother Goose and Cotillion. The speed figs are unremarkable, but with five wins and a second in seven starts, she should be primed for a big step up in her second off a layoff in the fall of her 3-year-old year. She likes to sit just a bit off the pace, too, so she may be in that proverbial garden spot. 

The final piece is the trainer intent. Two trainers have two horses in this race -- Todd Pletcher has PRINCESS OF SYLMAR and AUTHENTICITY, while Bill Mott has CLOSE HATCHES and ROYAL DELTA. For everything I just said about ROYAL DELTA possibly not being fully cranked in her last race, I don't think Mott would run CLOSE HATCHES here if he didn't think she had a real shot. And, likewise, I don't think Pletcher would necessarily run AUTHENTICITY if he thought there was no chance she would beat PRINCESS OF SYLMAR. So, I think there's real reason to be skeptical of the chances of the two best horses in here, and I like CLOSE HATCHES better than AUTHENTICITY -- I just think the ceiling is higher.

And she'll be a good price.

THE PLAY: $10 CLOSE HATCHES to win-place-show, $2 wheel CLOSE HATCHES with the field in the exacta ($20) and $.50 trifecta wheel ($30). Total bet: $80

Pre-numbers Breeders' Cup Thoughts

One thing I learned my lesson on after last year's Breeders' Cup -- seriously, I swear I learned my lesson this time -- is that you don't have to hunt for a price in the Breeders' Cup. If you think you have the winner pegged, go with it, and you're likely to get plenty of price for your trouble. I passed on betting TRINNIBERG and MIZDIRECTION because I thought they were underlays at the price they were bet down to. Well, those two winning would have paid for the rest of my missteps, so I'm keeping that as my No. 1 rule for myself this year: Don't try to get too cute.

I have some knee-jerk thoughts to each race that I'll share here before I delve more fully into my handicapping process later this week:

Marathon: Based mostly on pedigree, I think OLD TIME HOCKEY deserves a shot here at what's likely to be a price. He has only run once on dirt, but he should love the extra distance and should really be just as good on dirt as he has been on turf ... which isn't great, but he doesn't need to be great. WORLDLY would be my second choice, but I just think OLD TIME HOCKEY will like the distance more. POOL PLAY is pseudo-interesting as the clear class of the field, but he hasn't won in more than a year.

Juvenile Turf: Too indiscernible/too many Euros to comment on without a further look. I will say, however, that BON ACCORD looks interesting at what is likely to be a price.

Dirt Mile: GOLDENCENTS seems to be the "wise guy" pick and I think there's a good chance he goes off as favored, but I just feel like this race is tailor made for VERRAZANO. He has been nothing short of brilliant in the majority of his races, and his only two losses have come at 1.25 miles. PANTS ON FIRE could not be coming in looking any better. I could make an argument for a lot of horses in here, so I plan on just keeping it simple and rolling with VERRAZANO. I do think, however, that this race may stack up extremely well for HYMN BOOK. He's the only true closer in this race and it may set up very well for him.

Juvenile Fillies Turf: I need to look at this one, too, but I will say for sure that I am looking to play against MY CONQUESTADORY. She was somehow hailed as a potential great after her last and I just didn't see it at all. It looked OK but was absolutely not jaw-dropping by any means.

Distaff: Well, it's pretty impossible to make a case for STREET GIRL, and AUTHENTICITY has been beaten fairly convincingly by ROYAL DELTA and BEHOLDER in her last two, but I find the other four fairly inseparable. BEHOLDER would be my fourth choice because *most* of her wins have been after establishing relatively easy leads, and I don't think ROYAL DELTA will let her get that. PRINCESS OF SYLMAR would be my third choice -- yes, she has beaten both ROYAL DELTA and BEHOLDER, but BEHOLDER had to run very fast early in the Oaks and still almost held on (this was her best race in my opinion), and ROYAL DELTA was well below her established best in their last-out for whatever reason. ROYAL DELTA is my second choice because we don't really know why she ran so poorly last-out. The odds are that she wasn't cranked fully and will bounce back in a big way, but it's a question mark. My pick, at this moment, is CLOSE HATCHES. She beat PRINCESS OF SYLMAR in the Gazelle before stepping up in class and failing in the Oaks, beaten 10 lengths. She had a rough trip in the Acorn before bouncing back to trounce a tough field in the Mother Goose, took a break, and came back with a nice effort in winning the Cotillion. My general concern would be that she's not at her best at 1 1/8 miles, but she took the Gazelle wire to wire at the distance, so as the fourth or even fifth choice here, I like her to move forward in the second race off the layoff for Bill Mott.

Saturday:

Juvenile Fillies: I need to look more closely, but SECRET COMPASS and UNTAPABLE seem like horses who can win from slightly off the pace, so they're my knee-jerk picks.

Filly & Mare Turf: DANK looked awesome in winning the Beverly D, but I think this will be a slow-paced race that won't set up as well for her. The stars might just be aligned for LAUGHING as she could walk on the lead once more and win this thing, but ALTERITE, ROMANTICA and TIZ FLIRTATIOUS all seem dangerous to me. TIZ FLIRTATIOUS was particularly impressive mowing down horses in her last despite a slowly paced race. I am not a MARKETING MIX believer at this point -- she had no excuse for not holding off TIZ FLIRTATIOUS in the last and just got overwhelmed.

Filly & Mare Sprint: For a sprint race, there's a surprising lack of speed. And I didn't really realize how underwhelming this race is overall. I actually think I have to go back to GROUPIE DOLL getting back on dirt at a sprint distance -- she hasn't run something fitting that description since her tour de force last fall in the Breeders' Cup, and I think she'll be close enough to take advantage of a slow-ish pace. SWEET LULU seems like the other big threat to me -- I don't think TEDDY'S PROMISE has the class here.

Turf Sprint: I need to look at this more closely, but I feel like the maxim that horses who have run well on the Santa Anita course do well again is so well-known that there HAS to be value in going against that. I'd rather play UNBRIDLED'S NOTE than MIZDIRECTION despite her 6-for-6 record, but I kind of like CAPO BASTONE ... I don't think Pletcher would bother running him here as his first time on turf if he didn't have a pretty good feeling about it.

Juvenile: BOND HOLDER, CLEBURNE and TAP IT RICH are the knee-jerk reactions because they will be COOKING up front. The rest of these horses (with the exception of WE MISS ARTIE, who I think should be in the juvenile turf to have a shot) haven't won without the lead at the second call, so to ask them to do it today seems insane to me.

Turf: This is a fantastic race. That's my first thought. THE FUGUE and POINT OF ENTRY are obviously the favorites, but LITTLE MIKE again appears to have a tactical speed advantage. I also think INDY POINT has plenty more to show us, and MAGICIAN is intriguing as a 3-year-old import. I literally have no idea on this one at this point.

Sprint: It sucks that POINTSOFFTHEBENCH had to be euthanized last weekend -- I thought he was a very deserving favorite. As it is, this group is just going to murder each other on the front end. BAHAMIAN SQUALL seems potentially OK. JUSTIN PHILLIP is the obvious off-the-pace choice, but he's more of an exotics player to me -- he always seems to just not quite get there. Someone closer up always seems to run a bit bigger. SECRET CIRCLE is intriguing, but you have to wonder if that first effort back off the layoff just two weeks ago took too much out of him. A bullet work last week would indicate not, but I don't know. I don't think TRINNIBERG is a smart play this year.

Mile: The Euros don't impress me much here. SILVER MAX ran huge last-out to beat WISE DAN, but he'll have to contend with OBVIOUSLY on the front end, and frankly, he just hasn't been a great turf miler. WISE DAN will be heavily favored, but deservedly so.

Classic: I have extensive thoughts on basically every horse here, but I'll save that for the full preview. As for now, I think GAME ON DUDE is a very deserving favorite, but FORT LARNED's presence inside of him means he'll want the lead and that's scary. GAME ON DUDE has been more consistent, but FORT LARNED has been more brilliantly fast, and who knows what happens with those two if they hook up ... and, hey, MORENO is in there as well. Scary stuff on the front end. And the way PAYNTER was worked yesterday made me also wonder what his strategy will be (he was sent in front of a workmate ... kind of bizarre in my eyes, actually). I have two initial thoughts: MUCHO MACHO MAN and DECLARATION OF WAR. I've been a MUCHO MACHO MAN detractor ever since the 2011 Triple Crown, but I finally bet on him in his last race and he delivered his first Grade 1 win. He was so close last year and I don't think he could be doing much better right now as far as I can tell. I think DECLARATION OF WAR is extremely dangerous. He's an American bred horse and while I do think he's likely better on turf, he should love the distance and he has won 3-of-3 starts on all-weather surfaces. I don't want to violate my own "just pick the winner" rule, but I can't overlook him in any exotics for sure.

Initial 2013 Breeders' Cup Thoughts

​I'm a little bit ... disconcerted, I think is the best word ... with this year's Breeders' Cup.

Friday just looks kind of generally boring. People were clamoring for the Juvenile Sprint to go away after last year's five-horse race, and alas, it is now gone, but I kind of liked that race -- most juveniles at least have more substantial sprint form to look at. Most of those in the remai​​ning juvenile races -- the juvenile and the juvenile turf, and the juvenile fillies and the juvenile fillies turf -- have no form at the distance or on the surface, and it's a complete guessing game. So the Juvenile Turf and the Juvenile Fillies Turf are generally just boring to me. Yeah, I'll bet them and try to handicap them, but they'll be small bets, and the way they're split up on the card means I likely won't make any horizontal wagers on Friday ... which is annoying, because obviously I would like to take a shot.

The Marathon is the Marathon, so ... meh. It's too bad CALIDOSCOPIO isn't running again -- if he were, it would have a lot of appeal. As it is ... meh. So that makes three of the five BC races on Friday barely more appealing than a Sunday night race at Mountaineer, for example. Not good, Breeders' Cup.

Fortunately, I like the Dirt Mile a lot more than most people seem to, and I'm looking forward to seeing VERRAZANO and GOLDENCENTS run against some elders. And the Distaff looks fantastic once again -- I'm glad that the connections of PRINCESS OF SYLMAR to run her. The fact that Mike Watchmaker thinks it's a questionable decision because it might cost her an Eclipse Award is incredibly dumb -- pretty sure that an award that's voted on should be a very low concern for the owners. If they were going to skip it due to wanting her back in top form next year, or because her style might not suit Santa Anita, that would be one thing. But trying to hold on to an Eclipse Award by not running in the biggest race of the year for her? Ridiculous.

Anyway, those two races notwithstanding, I'm just not that excited about Friday as I have been in the past. I'd have to look back, but I thought they typically put one other "big" race on Friday -- for a while, I think it was "Ladies" day, and I thought that concept worked. Oh well.​

That said, the lack of excitement is made up for on Saturday. Every race on Saturday appears AWESOME. I'm not all that pumped up about the Juvenile Fillies, but there are some potentially great horses in there, so what the heck!

I do, however, have a rant about horse racing in general to get out of the way:

I'm not a huge fan of how late they're running these races. 7:30 Central is fine for me personally, but if you're trying to attract more fans to the sport, 8:30 on the East Coast on a Saturday night is unequivocally not where you want to be. Horse racing struggles due to a lot of things, but primarily I think it fails to cater to new potential fans. Just look at the races on any given day -- they're primarily run DURING THE WORK DAY. This is stupid. I know the horsemen and what not are you up at 5 a.m. with the horses and probably hate night racing for the most part, but when you're putting your best product out there at times nobody but retired folks and those who don't work at all because they're either just that rich or just that poor can see it, you're not going to gain new fans. People are constantly talking about how racing needs to embrace younger fans, and while running at night wouldn't suddenly make horse racing as popular as football, if you get a few good tracks to run night cards regularly, I think people in the industry would be surprised at how a simple change like that would get people interested again. Granted, some tracks don't have lights nor have the funds to install them, but I don't see why tracks that do have lights wouldn't run ALL night cards? The Downs After Dark thing has been immensely popular because, gosh, people aren't working and can get to the track! WHAT A NOVEL CONCEPT. Nobody's going to Churchill on a Wednesday afternoon, anyway, right? So why not run all nights for an entire meet and see what happens?

Anyway, all of that said, a Saturday night is probably *the worst* night to run on because it's the opposite of how the work week operates -- people are usually out and about on a Saturday night. People are looking for in-home entertainment during the week, but the industry chooses to run its biggest event on a Saturday, when they have to take on college football and people going out on the town. Other major sports have the sense to play their biggest games on these "at-home" nights -- the NCAA plays all of its championships on Monday night, the Super Bowl is on Sunday night, the NBA Finals would skip a Saturday for a Sunday night, etc. 

One final thought on this: A lot of the purists are excited about the switch back to "Distaff" from "Ladies' Classic." And, OK, if you like tradition you like "Distaff." There's just one problem -- NO LAYMAN KNOWS WHAT THE HELL DISTAFF MEANS. Again, this is just remarkably poor marketing for what you would hope is your second biggest event.

Anyway, back to the task at hand. Here are some other interesting bets that I may take part in this coming weekend:

* The first five races each day are part of a 50-cent Pick 5. I don't see doing this on Friday with a couple allowance races sprinkled in there, but the Saturday sequence is interesting with two stakes, a Grade 3 and then the Juvenile Fillies and the F&M Turf. It would become REALLY sexy if it carries over from Friday because it's a mandatory payout on Saturday. I'll only cap those three races and get involved on Saturday if it does indeed carry over.

* There are rolling 50-cent Pick 3s each day, as well as a late Pick 4 guarantee of $1.5 million on Friday and two Pick 4's on Saturday -- $1 million guarantee in races 4-7 and $3 million guarantee on races 8-11. There's a good chance that I'll play both of the Saturday Pick 4's and skip the Friday guy due to my concerns about the racing quality above.

* There's a 50-cent Super Hi 5 bet on both the Juvenile Fillies Turf and the Classic. I won't be the Juvenile Fillies Turf Hi 5 as that is just completely indiscernible, but the best part is that it will carry to the Classic if it's not hit and is a mandatory payout. So that's another carryover-dependent bet I'll keep my eyes on.

* There's a $2 Double from the Distaff to the Classic that I'll probably play at least lightly for fun.

* 10-cent superfectas are nice, and I'll likely play a few of those. (Another brief rant: Racing executives are OBSESSED with handle and some folks think that people will either bet or not bet -- they'll either play for $2 if that's the minimum, or they'll play for 10 cents if that's the minimum. So between that and a vague notion of "depressed payouts" if you lower the minimum (newsflash: if you want to make more, bet more), many are very much against these cheaper bets. But I think that is another example of cutting off the industry's proverbial nose to spite its own face. If you get someone new at the track, the name of the game is betting. If they have to play a $2 superfecta box with four horses, that's $48. They're just not going to bet. With a 10-cent super box, they can play five horses for $12. That's more appealing by a longshot. The mistake I think these executives make is that they think "hitting it big" is everyone's goal at the track, so they want to see BIG PRICES, which obviously can simply be a result of higher minimum bets. The reality is that people just want to have a good time and not lose in the process. Risk aversion is a much more powerful motivator than getting rich for the majority of casual fans that go to the track, and yet there are plenty of forces that still argue against commonsense cheaper bets like this one.)

* I don't foresee playing the Pick 6 since it could carry into Sunday and is a $2 bet, anyway. Those $2 Pick 6's get expensive in a hurry.

On any given race that I play, my typical wager amount is $14 -- two $4 win bets and a $6 exacta box. On a per race basis, I don't see myself going too far beyond that -- maybe $20-$30 per race.

For reference, here are the full Friday and Saturday cards with all post times listed in West Coast time. I'll have plenty more to come on the races themselves as the week rolls on:

Friday, November 1

1. Allowance 10:40 am

WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD Pick 5

2. 300 North Capital Allowance 11:15 am

WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD

3. Golden State Juvenile Fillies Stakes 11:50 pm

WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD Pick 4

4. Golden State Juvenile 12:27 pm

WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD

5. Twilight Derby (gr. II) 1:02 pm

WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD Pick 6

6. $500,000 Breeders’ Cup Marathon (gr. II) 1:45 pm

WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD

7. $1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. I) 2:25 pm

WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD Pick 4

8. $1 million Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (gr. I) 3:05 pm

WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD

9. $1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. I) 3:50 pm

WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD Super Hi 5

10. $2 million Breeders’ Cup Distaff (gr. I) 4:35 pm

WPS EX TRI SUPER Special DD

11. $150,00 President of the United Arab Emirates Cup (gr. 1) 5:10 pm

WPS EX TRI SUPER

Saturday, November 2

1. Juvenile Turf Sprint 10:15 am

WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD PICK 5

2. Damascus Stakes 10:50 am

WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD

3. Ken Maddy Stakes (gr. III) 11:25 am

WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD

Opening Ceremonies

4. $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I) 12:05 pm

WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD PICK 4

5. $1 million Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (gr. I) 12:43 pm

WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD

6. $1 Million Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (gr. I) 1:21 pm

WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD

7. $1 million Geico Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (gr. I) 2:05 pm

WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD PICK 6

8. $1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. I) 2:43 pm

WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD

9. $3 million Breeders’ Cup Turf (gr. I) 3:22 pm

WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD PICK 4

10. $1.5 million Xpressbet Breeders’ Cup Sprint (gr. I) 4:01 pm

WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD

11. $2 million Breeders’ Cup Mile (gr. I) 4:40 pm

WPS EX TRI SUPER DD

12. $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. I) 5:35 pm

WPS EX TRI SUPER Sup Hi 5

My Eulogy for Grandpa

The morning after my grandpa passed away, I spoke to my mom. She filled me in on all of the wake and funeral details, and also asked me if I would be a pallbearer and do the eulogy.

I started writing it Monday night, the day before the wake, only to essentially rework the entire thing on Tuesday night after the wake.

In the end, I was very happy with the final result. I don't know that I did my grandpa all the justice he deserved, but I felt I came as close as I possibly could. Although the below may not exactly match what I said -- I spoke from note cards and only later transcribed the full speech -- I think it's pretty close.

As I finished speaking, I heard a clap from behind me, and then the rest of the church joined in. As it turns out, it was the priest that was the first one to clap. He very well may do that for all eulogies, but it made me feel good to get a round of applause at all, and especially from the priest ... especially after my family had fought such a battle with the parish's bereavement lady to let the eulogy happen at church at all.

Anyway, here's roughly what I said at my grandpa's funeral mass:

Good morning everyone,

For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Bob Wothe and I am Bob Ollerman’s grandson. On behalf of myself, my grandma, my mom, my uncle and the rest of our families, I want to thank all of you so much for being here today. It’s so good to see so many people who cared so much about my grandpa — from those of you I’ve known to those of you I just met, it’s really special to have so many people here to help us say goodbye. It really means a lot.

I don’t imagine that any eulogy is ever an easy one to give, but I feel a little bit of extra pressure here today because my grandpa was always the MC of various events, always the man behind the microphone … so I’ll try to do you proud here today grandpa.

I do have to say, though, that I feel a bit unqualified giving this eulogy because I’ve only been here for 28 of his amazing 86 years. Fortunately, though, my grandpa was a great storyteller. In fact, he was so good at telling stories that he could tell them multiple times and I would still love it every time.

For example … have you ever heard how he won World War II?

I had to mention that because if I heard it once, I heard it 500 times. For those of you who haven’t heard it before, my grandpa of course served in World War II and was on a ship headed to Japan when they surrendered. He knew how lucky he was to not be involved in any of the intense fighting of the war, but of course he always said since he was on that ship, they knew he was coming and didn’t want any part of him.

I wanted to share that story today not only because it was his most famous story, but it sums up how lighthearted he was and how much he liked to enjoy himself. In talking to people yesterday, the thing I heard more than anything else was how much fun he was to be around. He had a line for everyone and every occasion with his legendary wit.

My grandpa connected to people and left his mark on them. I’ll never forget how people less than half his age would come up to him and say, “Hey Ole, how you doing? How’ve you been?” every time we were out in public. I was consistently blown away by the number of people he knew and appreciated him.

And I think people liked him so much because he had such a bright outlook on life. He made life fun and made the people around him feel good. He just enjoyed being alive, and everyone who was around him understood that immediately.

There’s one story in particular that I shared in the obituary but wanted to share one last time because I think it sums up how much he enjoyed life so well. It’s probably my favorite memory of him. I was 10 years old and pitching in the championship game of my summer baseball league. I recorded the final out and started running off the field, but I didn’t get far. Grandpa always had some knee issues and was dealing with that, but that day I think he covered 40 yards in about 4 seconds flat to run on to the diamond and give me a huge hug to celebrate with me.

And I just really think beyond meaning so much to me and making me feel so good that day, it sums up how invested in life’s moments he was — how invested in other people’s lives and happiness he was — he just couldn’t contain himself from celebrating the success of others.

Even in his later years, grandpa still wanted to get out and live his life. We would go to the bar on Saturday afternoons — of course I had to pick him up at 2:30 so he could be home for dinner by 5 — but he would tell me stories all the time. And, like I said earlier, he would tell me the same stories a lot, but one in particular kept coming up and really hit home with me.

To sum it up briefly, he had the opportunity to make more money at the railroad, but it would have required working nights.

He passed it up.

He was happy making what he was making what he was making and living how he was living. And he realized he already had it all — he had a wife and kids he loved at home, his nights free to spend time with them and do other things he loved, be it bowling, baseball, and so on.

And I always thought to myself … in today’s world, and especially my generation, everyone wants more all the time. Nothing is every enough. But grandpa had his priorities figured out and he knew what was important. We’re all here to have a little fun, and I think anyone here today would tell you that my grandpa had plenty.

I’ll remember so many other things about him:

• Watching him bowl: Obviously, my grandpa lived bowling, and it was so cool to see him do it. We should all be so lucky to find something we’re so passionate about and leave the kind of mark he did in the bowling community.
• The attention he paid to that old white fence in the backyard: I think he nearly drove my grandma crazy for a while there.
• The martinis he drank that could get you drunk from five feet away.
• Singing Christmas carols in the car on the way home from John and Dolores’ on Christmas Eve, which may or may not have had something to do with those martinis.
• The stories about the pools he ran at the Soo Line: I talked to a few retirees yesterday and they said, yep, we were in those.
• The stories he told me about good times with friends at Brickles bar and other family events from before my time.
• And that pile of coins on his kitchen table that never seemed to get smaller: Father Ryan mentioned coins earlier and I know I’ll think of grandpa any time I have one in my hand.

Now we’ve all shed some tears in the past few days, but that’s OK because grandpa wore his heart on his sleeve. He wasn’t afraid to cry. My grandma was always the strong, steady one. And grandma, you and grandpa were such a perfect match and complemented each other so well.

I remember when my wife Candeth and I got married, right here in this church actually, we said to each other that we hope we can have the kind of marriage and be as great together as my grandma and grandpa. I want to thank you, grandma, and thank you, grandpa, for setting such a great example for us.

And that example he set is, to me, my grandpa’s enduring legacy. I remember being in grade school and our teachers would ask us who our hero was. My classmates would say someone like Michael Jordan or Brett Favre or some other athlete.

I would always say my grandpa.

And to this day, and for the rest of my life, I’ll consider him my role model. If I can be even half the husband, father, grandfather, uncle, brother-in-law and friend he was, I know I will have lived an absolutely amazing life. Thank you, grandpa, for all you did for me over the years and everything you were. I love you and I hope they have Schlitz in heaven. 

Grandpa's Obituary

My grandpa passed away last Friday, Sept. 20, at about 11 p.m.

I had seen him earlier that morning. Really early that morning. My mom had called be around 9 p.m. on Thursday night and said that they didn't think he would last much longer, so I made the trip down to Fond du Lac to "say goodbye."

I barely recognized the almost skeletal version of my grandpa lying in the bed when I walked in. It's sad to say, but he looked more like an Egyptian mummy than my grandpa. He had lost around 60 pounds and was all but unconscious, mouth agape and gasping for air every few minutes.

I sat there with my grandma, mom, Uncle Bob and Aunt Linda for a while. Then, they went home, but I stayed for a little bit longer. I didn't have all that much to say to him, but I thanked him for always being so supportive of me, and loving me, and so on. I held his hand and every time I tried to pull away, he would squeeze it a little bit. It's one of those things where you really don't know if it's like babies do -- where they involuntarily grasp your fingers -- or if he was actually able to hear me at all, but when I told him about my favorite memory of him, I swear he squeezed my hand harder than at any other time. While it may have just been a coincidence, it makes me feel better that he may have actually been able to hear me ... so I'm going to say he could.

When I left that night, I told him that I was going home, and that it was OK for him to go home now, too. We just wanted him to finally be comfortable again, and it was his time. Less than 24 hours later, he did "go home." Not being particularly religious, I think he's just gone now, but I can see why people choose to believe in God and heaven -- it feels a whole lot better to think that he's up there hanging out, having a few beers with his brothers and sisters, bowling, etc. But honestly, even if he is "just gone," even that is a blessing -- at least he's not miserable and in pain anymore.

Anyway, I got home around 1 a.m. that morning and started writing his obituary. While the final published version omitted some of these things, this is what I wrote (I did later update the visitation times and my uncle's missing birth date, but it is otherwise unchanged):

Robert (Bob) Alvin Ollerman, better known as “Ole” to those he bowled with for more than 50 years and worked with for more than 40 years at the Soo Line Railroad, passed away peacefully yesterday at Harbor Haven Nursing Home in Fond du Lac after a battle with Alzheimer’s. He was 86.

Bob was born, raised and made his home in Fond du Lac. The youngest of Robert and Alvina (Friese) Ollerman’s eight children, he was born on Nov. 28, 1926, and grew up during the Great Depression, during which he collected dirty rags and sold them for pennies to help his family get by.

After graduating from L.P. Goodrich High School in 1943, he started working at the Soo Line in North Fond du Lac at age 18. He was drafted into the United States Army shortly thereafter and was en route to Japan for a possible land invasion when the Japanese surrendered to end World War II. Although Bob ultimately served in both Japan and the Philippines, he made sure that the Japanese surrender was the enduring legacy of his service: He spent the rest of his life lightheartedly telling anyone that would listen — and even those that wouldn’t — that he “won the war” because the enemy knew he was coming and didn’t dare take him on.

After his tour of service was complete, Bob returned to the Soo Line and ultimately worked there for nearly 42 years as a carman helper before retiring in 1986. Despite repeated attempts by his superiors to move him into a job that paid more and carried greater responsibility, Bob always turned them down, preferring to keep his nights free for other pursuits, be it family-related, baseball or bowling. Additionally, the day shift was a better time to run his innumerable pools, which he always kept folded up inside his shirt.

Bob married Charlene Wenzler on August 4, 1951, and they welcomed a daughter, Debra (Martin), on December 27, 1952. They later welcomed a son, Robert, Jr., on June 25, 1956.

Still, for all of that, Charlene may have put it best when she simply said, “He lived bowling.”

Bob began bowling when he was 17, became an ABC-sanctioned bowler in 1946, and started as a regular bowler in two leagues beginning in 1947. He ultimately spent 50 years in the Uecker-Witt Businessman’s League (which started at the Arcade before moving to Ledgeview Lanes), serving as league secretary for 34 years from 1954 through 1988. He additionally served as President of the Fond du Lac Bowling Association in 1977, was inducted into the Fond du Lac Men’s Bowling Association Hall of Fame in 1985, served as president of the Wisconsin State Bowling Association from 1989-1990, and was inducted into the Wisconsin State Bowling Association Hall of Fame in 1994.

In the early days of his retirement, Bob spent countless hours tending to the white fence in his backyard, golfing, drinking Old Style, teaching his grandchildren to play cards, and attending any sporting events he could get to. He was a particularly exuberant and emotional fan, once running onto a baseball diamond and picking up his 10-year-old grandson after he had recorded the final out of a winning game.

In his later years, when a balky knee finally stopped him from bowling and began to limit his mobility, Ollerman kept himself busy with lunches and dinners with fellow retirees, casino trips, and even a yearly excursion to the Dubuque dog track. He was a member of the Holy Family Catholic Community and the Knights of Columbus Council #664.

Bob was preceded in death by his parents, five brothers and their wives, two sisters and one brother-in-law: Lester (Viola) Ollerman, Irving (Kathryn) Ollerman, Clarence (Adell) Ollerman, Donald (Rosella) Ollerman, Melvin (Edythe) Ollerman, Leone Ollerman, and Bernice (Kenneth) Grimmer.

Bob is survived by his wife of 52 years, Charlene; his daughter, Debra Martin and her husband, Rick, of Fond du Lac; his son, Robert Ollerman, Jr., and his wife, Linda, of Ripon; his grandchildren, Sara and Emma Ollerman of Middleton, Kalee Wothe of St. Louis Park, Minn., and Bob Wothe and his wife, Candeth, of Neenah; and one great-grandchild, Clara Wothe.

He is further survived by a sister-in-law and her husband, Dolores and John Supple of Oshkosh, a brother-in-law and his wife, Joe and Ann Wenzler of Mequon, and numerous nieces, nephews and friends.

Visitation will be held at the Zacherl Funeral Home, 875 E. Division Street in Fond du Lac, this Tuesday, September 24, 2013, from 4:00 PM to 8:00 PM, with a prayer service at 7:00 PM. Additional visitation will be held at the funeral home on Wednesday morning from 8:30 AM to 9:30 AM., with a Mass of Christian Burial to follow at 10:00 AM at St. Mary's Church, Holy Family Parish, 59 E. Merrill Street in Fond du Lac. Entombment will follow in the Chapel of The Risen Christ Mausoleum, Calvary Cemetery.

The family extends special thanks to Harbor Haven Nursing Home for their dedicated care to Bob in his final days. In lieu of flowers, memorials to St. Mary's Springs Academy Second Century Campaign or Holy Family Catholic Parish are appreciated.

8-17-13 BC Qualifier

Arlington Park race 6: LIZ PENDENS looks like a threat as the lone legit speed, but she absolutely appears to need the lead and she may not get it with SOME TEMPER breaking from the rail. MY OPTION has the most class in the field, has won her only try on grass (back in October of last year), and likely wins if she runs back to her G3 triumph in the Arlington Oaks on polytrack. But who knows? I find it curious that she hasn't run on grass more than once, so that seems to tell me that her trainer thinks she's better on the poly. She may very well be good enough regardless, but at a short price, I'll pass. BOLD KITTEN is similar in that she has only run on the turf once, but I think she has a better turf pedigree and I would prefer her at a slightly longer price. Still, she'll be the second choice and not a great price for a horse with questions. I'M ALREADY SEXY is probably the most proven play, and she appears razor sharp after a 46.8 second work at Arlington on Tuesday. She has put up very strong speed figures on the turf time and time again and lost her last start by just half a length despite being checked badly in the first turn. She's the third choice on the morning line but likely the best value. I think BELLE CHAUSSEE is an intriguing longshot. After two unsuccessful tries against older horses this year, she gets a new trainer and a try against only her peers. Neither of those races were good trips, either, and she still ran respectably. I give her a good shot here.

Arlington Park race 7: The American St. Leger is a bizarre race at 1 11/16 miles. WIGMORE HALL could certainly win, but I think he would prefer softer ground and didn't run particularly well in the Million last year on his first start after shipping from England. All DARK COVE has done this year is won at 1.5 miles on the turf. He has won three straight and at 3/1 offers a modicum of value here. IOYA BIGTIME figures to contend but hasn't won since last September and appears outclassed here. He has been beaten by DARK COVE by at least eight lengths in those past three races. SUNTRACER was coming at DARK COVE late in the last race and only lost by 1.75 lengths, but he only wins when presented with a really fast pace to close into, and I don't see the pace being too hot in this one. NAJJAAR is winless in six starts on turf but should absolutely love the distance -- he put up a 110 speed figure in his only 1.5 mile start and this race will be his second off the layoff. He has worked lights out on turf recently and I think offers the best value among horses with established American form. This race likely comes down to how good DANDINO is, a shipper who was second in the G2 Hardwicke at Ascot last out. He ran pretty huge in a second at Woodbine last fall (111 speed fig), but in the past year he has now been from England to Canada to Hong Kong to England to Chicago. And as good as his form looks, he has won just once in his last 10 starts, and that wasn't on turf. I'm comfortable taking a shot with NAJJAAR here. UPDATE: DARK COVE scratched, which is probably best for my NAJJAAR wager as I thought DARK COVE had a real shot at going all the way on the lead. IOYA BIGTIME probably becomes more of a threat without DARK COVE to battle with on the front end.

Arlington Park race 8: I might be more excited for this race than the Million. The general impression of this race seems to be that it's wide open, but I'm not sure I subscribe to that notion. None of the Euros jump out enough for me to seriously consider them, and there are some clearly outclassed horses here, as well. JACK MILTON will likely be the post time favorite, but I think he'll have value. I like RYDILLUC somewhat as I think the pace will be relatively soft, but I really think 1 1/4 miles is too far for him. I also think ADMIRAL KITTEN would prefer shorter and won't get the pace he would be best closing into. STORMY LEN's only non-maiden win came at the head of a very slow race, and he won't get that with RYDILLUC in the field. DRAW TWO appears to be a different horse on softer going, but he won't get that and looks like a big underlay to me at 6/1. JACK MILTON just seems by far the best any way you measure it -- his third last time should have been a win if not for traffic issues, and Rosario is in for the ride. If I was trying to beat JACK MILTON, I would go with either TATTENHAM or AMEN KITTEN. AMEN KITTEN was only beaten by 4.25 lengths by JACK MILTON in April at Keeneland and he always seems to show up  -- he hasn't been beaten by more than five lengths in any of his last five starts. The biggest knock for him is that his best performances have come, as you would expect, against stronger paces, and that's unlikely in this one. TATTENHAM is probably more defensible as he comes in off a narrow second against older horses going 1 1 1/4 miles. Of note is that he was beaten by HANGOVER KID two starts back, a horse that finished third in the G1 United Nations and won his last start Thursday against stakes company. I still think JACK MILTON is the standout here, but if he drifts down in price rather than up, I will be tempted to play against him.

Arlington Park race 9: MARKETING MIX is the clear draw and favorite in the Beverly D, but her last effort was huge and I wouldn't be all that surprised if she bounces a bit. STARFORMER has run well with any pace, and she's working lights out for Bill Mott recently and I don't take him shipping her in to face MARKETING MIX lightly. He's pretty conservative when he places horses and he doesn't run unless he thinks he has a real shot. Of the Euros, I prefer DANK over DUNTLE because she has exhibited more success going longer. At a mile, I would take DUNTLE, but at 1 3/16, it's DANK out of that group. Still, STARFORMER would be my play here as the likely fourth or fifth choice.

Arlington Park race 10: Who knows. And I say that because I really don't know what will happen up front. Dale Romans says he wants LITTLE MIKE to be on the lead, but he's going to have to absolutely go nuts to beat NATES MINESHAFT to it. If he does, neither horse has any chance. Actually, NATES MINESHAFT has no chance regardless, but I think those two will battle to some extent and create a quicker than average pace. A lot of people are giving INDY POINT a lot of love and he's undoubtedly the wise guy horse, but I think he's going to be pretty close to this early pace, too, based on how he pulled in his last race against inferior competition. I love RAHYSTRADA but he's just not good enough for this level. A true warrior, but just not good enough for these. THE APACHE has garnered a lot of attention as a Euro shipper but I don't think he has been as good going this long, period. REAL SOLUTION, HUNTER'S LIGHT and GRANDEUR are the three that I view as real contenders. If it magically rains, REAL SOLUTION might be the play, but otherwise I don't think he's as good on firm turf. As of March, HUNTER'S LIGHT was pretty much considered the best horse in the world as the favorite for the Dubai World Cup. He appears to be better on synthetic, but he has had plenty of success on turf, too, and hasn't exactly been embarrassed on turf in either of his last two starts in Signapore or Germany. In fact, it's all that travel that's probably my biggest concern. I like GRANDEUR despite his likely role as the favorite here. He won at 1 1/8 and 1 1/2 miles at Hollywood Park last winter, and was second by 1.5 lengths in another despite getting no pace to close into. MIDNIGHT EDIT: I may live to regret this, but HUNTER'S LIGHT seems like the value play here. I'd rather play him at 8/1 than GRANDEUR from post 13 at 7/2.

Del Mar race 2: Oh boy, 2-year-old fillies. There are five first-time starters and I would normally look primarily at one of them to win because the second-time starters here didn't do much in their debuts, but there's not a lot to look at. The first-time starter I like the most is NATIVE EMPRESS on the rail, but she certainly doesn't do a lot for me. Her trainer only wins with 5% of his first-time starters, so that's not a great track record to bet into. I'm totally split on CAL GAL vs. MEINERTZHAGENI. The latter put up a better speed figure and has a better trainer for second-time starters, but CAL GAL dueled on the lead and still held on for third in her debut. Gun to my head, I'm taking CAL GAL as speed has been good at 5.5 furlongs at Del Mar, but if there's a big odds disparity, I may go with MEINERTZHAGENI.

Del Mar race 3: My initial impression was that this race would be fairly slow up front, but upon further examination, even though there are only two real speed horses, it seems likely they will both go for the lead with all they have. BENCH BEAUTY is interesting as a horse who may have "finally figured it out" with back-to-back speed figs of 80+ here at Del Mar, but she hasn't ever run well at a mile. My three top contenders are HARD BUNS, CHESTNUT MOON and JERRY'SHONEYCAROL. I would guess that CHESTNUT MOON will be the favorite based on a class drop just three starts removed from a second-place finish in a $40,000 optional claimer, but HARD BUNS also figures to battle for favoritism. I don't like either as much as JERRY'SHONEYCAROL at what figures to be a much larger price. The former two are either on or close to the pace runners, and in addition to what I see being a fairly hot pace, the front hasn't been the place to be in Del Mar routes. JERRY'SHONEYCAROL gets back to a route after three unsuccessful tries going 6 or 5.5 furlongs. Her best effort came on Jan. 13 when she went a mile at Golden Gate in a $50,000 optional claimer and was beaten just two lengths. Getting back to her preferred distance at this much lower level should work and offers great value at a 15/1 ML. UPDATE: Well, that sucks. JERRY'SHONEYCAROL has scratched. I like CHESTNUT MOON better than HARD BUNS, but shit, I felt good about this one.

Saratoga race 7: The pace is HOT HOT HOT in this one. ALE has had bad trips in his last two races yet only lost both by a combined five lengths. Only two horses are listed as true off the pace horses -- LIQUIDITY TRAP and GOLD MEGILLAH -- but I'm not overly taken by either of those. GOLD MEGILLAH has made a habit of finishing well but not well enough, so I have little interest there at 7/2 in the favorite's role. LIQUIDITY TRAP is tempting if only because he's yet to get a strong pace to close into, yet he still has ran very well. The one race he did get a *little* early pace in was a $25,000 claimer that he won two starts back. I still like ALE. This is an improving 3-year-old who is dropping this low on the claiming ladder for the first time -- he was in a $75,000 optional claimer last time and a $50,000 race before that. He'll sit off the pace and get first run on the other late runners. UPDATE: LIQUIDITY TRAP scratched, so I feel even better about ALE.

Saratoga race 8: This race is basically the opposite of the last -- should be a SLOW PACE up front. If NOW AND THEN's dirt form transfers to this first try on dirt, I think he walks on the lead and draws off to win by open lengths. But I just generally find the way this horse has been campaigned as confusing. I don't think he's going to be as good on turf, period. I have no interest in him in the favorite's role. I like three horses here to some extent: HAILSTONE, LEAD SINGER and KATHY'S KITTEN. HAILSTONE is the "back class" pick -- last year at this time, he was running third in the John's Call while notching a 105 speed fig, and he even ran a somewhat decent sixth in the Grade 1 Sword Dance exactly a year ago Sunday. But he has been off his game recently and was no threat in an eighth-place finish in his last start against lesser competition than these. I have a fairly hard time separating LEAD SINGER and KATHY'S KITTEN, but I do think LEAD SINGER has a higher ceiling than KATHY'S KITTEN as this is just his sixth start, and he sold for $315,000 last February as a 2-year-old. He worked a bullet on the turf on Monday and is double the odds of KATHY'S KITTEN on the morning line. He seems worth a shot. UPDATE: HAILSTONE scratched, so I feel better about ignoring his back class.

Saratoga race 9: The Sword Dancer! Great name for a race. STORMY LORD and OPTIMIZER are the only two pace players in this race, and there's a chance STORMY LORD will scratch, although I think he's likely to run as somewhat of a rabbit for entrymate BIG BLUE KITTEN. Therefore, I think the pace will be decent for this 1.5 mile race on the turf. My general reaction to this race is that I think there's a solid chance for a big price. Most of the horses in this race have run well enough at some point to win a race of this caliber, so it just comes down to who shows up today. BOISTEROUS and BIG BLUE KITTEN, in that order, do indeed win if they run back to their last races. But both of those races were the best of their careers. If they run their "norm," so to speak, they're eminently beatable. And that's what I'll try to do here. TWILIGHT ECLIPSE is sort of interesting as I have him ranked "next best," but taking 5/1 on him when he was soundly beaten by BOISTEROUS last out and beaten by OPTIMIZER before that is hard to justify. TANNERY is interesting to me. His last race is a complete throwout due to the extremely slow pace there, and he hasn't been beaten by more than 2.5 lengths in any race with a better than average pace. At 20/1, he seems worth a shot. OPTIMIZER is the other horse I would take just mainly based on the projected slow pace, but this horse probably really needs a break -- he runs almost every month and he hasn't won since February. If STORMY LORD does scratch, he's the play, but otherwise I'm happy to go elsewhere. Additionally, if I had to decide between BOISTEROUS and BIG BLUE KITTEN, the decision is fairly easy: BOISTEROUS is quite a bit better in my book.

To recap:

SAR7: ALE (8/1 ML)
AP6: I'M ALREADY SEXY (5/1 ML)
SAR8: LEAD SINGER (12/1 ML)
AP7: NAJJAAR (6/1 ML)
SAR9: TANNERY (20/1 ML)
AP8: JACK MILTON (3/1 ML)
DMR2: CAL GAL (5/2 ML)
AP9: STARFORMER (8/1 ML)
DMR3: JERRY'SHONEYCAROL (15/1 ML)
AP10: HUNTER'S LIGHT (8/1 ML)