Early Preakness Thoughts

5/17 update: OFFICIAL PLAYS:

WPS SOCIAL INCLUSION
Trifecta: CAL CHROME/SOCIAL INCLUSION over CAL CHROME, SOCIAL INCLUSION, BAYERN, BAYERN, RIA ANTONIA, KID CRUZ, RIDE ON CURLIN over CAL CHROME, SOCIAL INCLUSION, BAYERN, BAYERN, RIA ANTONIA, KID CRUZ, RIDE ON CURLIN

The good news today is that I'm not going to be all that pissed at myself no matter what happens because I pretty clearly have no clue here. SOCIAL INCLUSION is the play because he's the only real value I see at the current odds -- if it wasn't *THE PREAKNESS* I would expect CALIFORNIA CHROME to be even money (not 3/5) and SOCIAL INCLUSION to be 2-1 or 3-1. 

5/16 update: After reviewing the form, I actually can't really see RIA ANTONIA winning this thing. I still she's useful in exotics, but she hasn't even closed that strongly in any of her races. A lot of folks seem to like KID CRUZ because of his late punch, but I'd actually rather upgrade RIDE ON CURLIN — KID CRUZ is jumping in the deep end here, and for him to win against these at first asking would be pretty amazing. RIDE ON CURLIN, on the other hand, has run quite respectably and had a ton of trouble in the Derby yet still ran on admirably. I'm swapping RIDE ON CURLIN and RIA ANTONIA.


Some fairly quick Preakness thoughts (at least by my standards) in case my second child is born at some point this week and I don't have the opportunity to get more in-depth:

Prior to the Kentucky Derby, I told everyone who would listen that I thought if California Chrome won the Derby, we would be looking at a possible Triple Crown at the Belmont because there was no way he would lose at Pimlico with the speed-favoring nature of that track and his style.

Well ... I kind of sort of changed my mind on that one.

The probable Preakness field is *loaded* with speed, and the speed in this race is -- to me -- of a higher caliber than the speed that signed on for the Derby. While I happily dismissed horses like WILDCAT RED and GENERAL A ROD and so on in the Derby, I can't do that quite so easily with horses like SOCIAL INCLUSION and BAYERN. Those are real horses. And that's to say nothing of PABLO DEL MONTE, who actually had the chance to run in the Derby but skipped it due to post position #20 with the idea being to point to this spot. And then there's RING WEEKEND, an impressive front running victor in the Tampa Bay Derby earlier this year.

And then there's truly *new shooters* in terms of stepping on the big stage like KID CRUZ and DYNAMIC IMPACT, both of whom I think just clearly lack the flat-out class.

All in all, the good news for CALIFORNIA CHROME is that all of the speed means he doesn't have to do the dirty work and keep a horse honest on the lead -- he should be able to sit the same sort of trip he did in the Derby.

The bad news is that he could get caught up in it anyway, and also that Pimlico has been speed-favoring enough in the past that I could see SOCIAL INCLUSION battling off other early speed types and still holding on (see SHACKLEFORD in 2011 after setting splits of 22 and 46 and change).

Again, not a ton of time here, so I'll break it into tiers as far as *win probability* once again. Listed along with each horse is the current Vegas odds:

FORGET IT:

10. DYNAMIC IMPACT 8/1: Coooome on. 8/1, really?!? There's no way. He beat a decent MIDNIGHT HAWK to win the Illinois Derby by a nose, but that was on the lead with a moderate pace. I'd need 28/1 to consider this one.

9. GENERAL A ROD 12/1: There seems to be some school of thought that he's going to run much better at Pimlico with a better trip, but I think all a better trip gives him is a chance to be in a speed duel against better horses. My thoughts from the Derby remain the same on this one.

8. RING WEEKEND 30/1: Very disappointing effort last out at Calder against much lesser than these. He still would have made the Derby field but spiked a fever and ultimately skipped it, leaving him pointed here. Even on his best day, I don't know that he belongs at this level. His win in the Tampa Bay Derby was over VINCEREMOS, who was 17th in the Derby. That said, Graham Motion is a genius and can do wonders with that kind of time off; the question is if he's ready for 1 3/16 miles off the bench, and even if he is, does it make a difference? I highly doubt it, but I'll give him a better shot than the other two here.

POSSIBLE EXOTIC USE:

7. KID CRUZ 20/1: Came with a withering run to win the Private Terms stakes at Laurel in last-to-first fashion, then sat off a slow pace and won the Federico Tesio stakes at Pimlico with ease. But the pace in both of those races was so incredibly slow ... to think he'll go much longer and much faster early and have the same punch at the end is pretty silly.

6. RIDE ON CURLIN 8/1: He again belongs on exotics -- especially with his style in this pace-laden field -- but I can't imagine him winning this race. His daddy did win the Preakness many years ago, but again, he's just lacked that brilliance, and there are actually more brilliant horses here than there were in the Derby. The other questionable thing here is that it sounds like he'll be closer to the pace -- the trainer was unhappy with the ride he got from Calvin Borel in the Derby -- so I still don't have a ton of confidence in this one.

IT COULD MAYBE HAPPEN?

5. PABLO DEL MONTE 20/1: Might be kind of interesting in a field with no pace, but as it is ... it's hard to see. His effort on the lead in the Blue Grass was fairly impressive, but ultimately it reminded me of HANSEN a few years back -- well run given the surface and shape of the race, but ultimately likely a red herring. He may have more in the tank and run huge here, but again, even if he does, I doubt he wins. His two dirt efforts to date have been on the speed-favoring Gulfstream strip, but he hasn't been capable of getting to the lead there ... so, in general, his dirt starts haven't shown he has the legit ability on dirt to belong here. But if his connections had enough sense to skip the Derby (which is almost unheard of these days), they're at least being sensible about it and I'll give him a solid *possibly.*

THE INTRIGUING PROSPECTS:

4. BAYERN 10/1: He was all out to win the Derby Trial the week prior to the Derby, and that was against much lesser competition than he'll face here (and he ultimately got DQ'd due to drifting out and impeding his competition in the stretch. Baffert is awfully high on him and seemed to want to run him in the Derby as opposed to CHITU ... but I'm not sold on his chances. Not with this pace set up and this competition. Baffert ran in the Trial in the hopes of getting enough points to make the Derby, so it's not as if we can use the "not fully cranked" excuse. As the fifth choice at 10/1, I don't hate him, but he's just really up against it here.

3. RIA ANTONIA 50/1: 50/1! 50/1! A filly taking on the boys. Why is the sixth-place finisher in the Kentucky Oaks trying the boys here? Well, I'm not exactly sure -- and as I'm writing this, I'm kind of asking myself, "Do I really think she can win this?" And I'm going to say YES. The case against her is pretty simple: She hasn't beaten anywhere near these kinds of colts, her only real big win to date was in a race that completely fell apart, she is, again, a filly trying the boys, etc. If you follow horse racing like I do, you'll find a million people saying she has no shot and that they hope she won't be hurt. Even her new trainer is sounding pessimistic, saying something like, "Whatever the plan for her is, we think she's doing great." In other words, it sounds like the owner is pushing for this for no real reason ... possibly why he took her from Baffert after the Oaks and gave her to Tom Amoss.

The case for her is also pretty simple: I think she's the only *true* closer in this field. KID CRUZ did in one race, but was more of a pressing position in his last. She'll likely be the longest shot in the field -- her Oaks effort was so uninspiring that I just can't believe most will give her a second look. And, finally, it's just such a weird move that it's either completely dumb or dumb like a fox. No filly has run in this race since the incomparable Rachel Alexandra won it in 2009 (awesome race, by the way -- "MINE THAT BIRD runs at her late" is one of my all-time favorite calls), so it's not like most owners/trainers go around tossing random fillies into this race. I'm willing to take a chance that these connections know something or at least know what they're doing somewhat and a have a good feeling that she'll run well. She continues to work very well as she did in the days leading up to the Oaks; not sure if that's a good sign or a bad sign, then, given the flop that was her Oaks run.

2. SOCIAL INCLUSION 6/1: This is the one horse I could see just being legit *better* than CALIFORNIA CHROME even with both of them on their best days. He has only lost once, and that was his first time facing a bunch of adversity and a field of real quality. He looked like he was gone at the top of the stretch but grew weary. That said, he romped so impressively in his first few starts that it's possible he's just amazingly good. The negatives: Had a foot problem that kept him out of a prep race on Derby Day; has the same hurdle of RING WEEKEND in terms of going 1 3/16 off the bench. Figure to be right on/very close to the lead in a hotly contested pace. Should absolutely be the second choice, but I'm not sure exactly how short is *too* short. If he hadn't had the foot problem and layoff, I think I would actually make him my stone cold pick here; those issues, however, are concerning enough to say he just belongs in the conversation.

1. CALIFORNIA CHROME 3/5: There's not a lot to say. He will be a deserving heavy favorite. The way he spurts away at the top of the stretch in most of his races is a pleasure to watch. The time of the Derby was historically slow on a fast track, but that is always as much an indicator of pace as it is quality, and I'm mostly ignoring it. If you wanted to, though, you could poke a hole in that piece of his Derby run, as well as simply pointing out that he got the most picture-perfect trip ever ... no problems whatsoever. Now, granted, a horse like him often makes his own trip -- he's so tractable that he can get wherever the jockey wants to put him -- but what if that doesn't happen in the Preakness? Can he deal with trouble? Finally, Art Sherman is going *really* easy on him in terms of workout schedule. He definitely deserves a bit of a break after the Derby, but I would feel better if they did a little something more than an easy jog or light gallop in the mornings.

SUMMARY: The Preakness is, historically speaking, won by the best horse. The best example that comes to mind is LOOKIN AT LUCKY in 2010; after a miserable trip in the Kentucky Derby, he showed up at Pimlico and won without much doubt. There have been so many Triple Crown tries recently because that's just how the track plays -- very true. The best horses win the most races at Pimlico.

The best horse is very likely CALIFORNIA CHROME. But SOCIAL INCLUSION is pretty interesting at 6/1 vs. 3/5. In fact, if he wasn't having the foot issue and/or had a race in him recently, I would be inclined to almost call it a tossup.

But he is, and so I generally don't have a ton of doubt that CALIFORNIA CHROME will win this race relatively easily. He should sit 5th or so, maybe 4-5 lengths off of the early leaders as they beat each other up on the front end. He'll respond willingly, open up on them as everyone else falls apart, and won't find much of anything running at him late.

I've liked the idea of RIA ANTONIA since I heard she was running, but I'll admit that I've cooled on her in recent days. The owner just seems insane.

With that said, the preliminary play in my head is:

Exacta wheel RIA ANTONIA with the field = $36

Trifecta: Intriguing Prospects over Intriguing Prospects + It Could Maybe Happen? + Possible Exotic Use over Intriguing Prospects + It Could Maybe Happen? + Possible Exotic Use = $60

Superfecta: Intriguing Prospects over Intriguing Prospects + It Could Maybe Happen? + Possible Exotic Use over Intriguing Prospects + It Could Maybe Happen? + Possible Exotic Use over Intriguing Prospects + It Could Maybe Happen? + Possible Exotic Use = $48

In other words, the idea is pretty much to play against DYNAMIC IMPACT, GENERAL A ROD and RING WEEKEND. What could possibly go wrong?

Derby Afterword

Ugh.

When you bet horses as often as I do, you can often go back after a race and say to yourself, “I should have noticed that,” or even, “You know, I thought about betting that horse!”

There’s a certain usefulness to that sort of exercise — you can learn from your mistakes, or train yourself on what you missed — but that’s also just kind of inherent in the game … you win some, you lose some. You can't win 'em all. And so on.

In the case of the 2014 Kentucky Derby, I learned that I can lose even when I’m right. I was wrong on INTENSE HOLIDAY, of course, but when you read my preview, I almost exactly pegged the finish.

Let’s take a look back at what I said about COMMANDING CURVE:

This is GOLDEN SOUL, the second-place finisher in 2013, all over again … same trainer, same plodding along, picking up the pieces style … he could very well bomb into the exotics like GOLDEN SOUL did and make them pay really nicely, but he’s just not anywhere near special enough. He has one win on his resume — yep, his maiden win. He was third, five lengths back, in the Louisiana Derby. He was bumped at the break and ran wide there, so you could say he's closer to VICAR'S IN TROUBLE and INTENSE HOLIDAY than lengths alone would show, but that was also by far his best speed figure to date. He'd have to take another big jump forward to win here, and I don't see it at all. I actually made the line on this horse 50-1, so if somehow he drifted up (he won't), I might actually consider a win bet despite his being placed in this tier.

OK, not the most ringing endorsement ever, but I went ahead and called him the second-place finisher from 2013 all over again. You have to consider him in any exotics with that thought, right?

Then, the next day, I said this:

17. Commanding Curve, 26-1 -- One guy I respect a lot thinks this one is worth a win bet. I still disagree --  especially at 26-1 -- but again, he's a must-use in exotics.

HE’S A MUST-USE IN EXOTICS!!!

HOW COULD I POSSIBLY WRITE THAT AND THEN NOT USE HIM?!?!?

I even punched in the following trifecta at one point on Saturday:

4/5/16 wt 4/5/9/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/20 wt 4/5/9/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/20

That would have been a $165 outlay, though, and then I started considering SAMRAAT who I noted had good reports, which would have pushed total cost up to $198 … and then I thought, gosh, a lot can happen, and that’s a lot to lose on one single bet!

So what did I do? I “diversified” and ended up dumping right about that same amount on the variety of other bets that I referenced in the last post.

Of course, the trifecta paid $856 and change, so … there has been a lot of self-loathing going on in the past few days.

I’ve lost more money in the past on various events, but this one just really, really stung. STINGS, actually. Basically a $1,000 swing because I don’t follow my own advice!

My uncle had the tri, I think at least in part due to my thoughts on it, and Peter had the exacta, solely due to my thoughts on it.

The final piece that still gnaws at me is that I made a brief recording of my "stretch call" for the race on Saturday morning. It was a request from Ed, so I obliged … and it wrapped up like this: “Intense Holiday got up for the win, California Chrome ran his heart out but settled for second, Danza rallied for third and a fast-closing Commanding Curve ran fourth.”

It was entirely off the cuff, but I thought, you know, just in case I’m completely right, I’m going to be the superfecta here. So I made a $1 superfecta bet on that exact combination. I wasn't going to box them up in a superfecta because that would have cost $120, but ...

For $12, why didn’t I bother to box those four up in a 50-cent trifecta box? WHY WHY WHY???

The only way I can defend myself against myself is by saying that I bet what I perceived to be the most value with WPS bets and I just turned out be wrong … but I also said I thought the horses in Commanding Curve’s tier were equally as likely to finish in the top four as many of the horses above them, so that’s really a useless defense when I look at the trifectas I actually did bet.

Now I’m all worked up again. This one is going to take me a while to get over.

The 6th Annual Wothism Kentucky Derby Preview

CALIFORNIA CHROME (pictured) has been dominant
thus far in 2014. But I'm taking INTENSE HOLIDAY to
win the 140th running of the Kentucky Derby.

(5/3/14 UPDATE: I'm ultimately just playing the straight math and going off of my odds like I should. My official plays:

• WPS INTENSE HOLIDAY
• WPS MEDAL COUNT, TAPITURE
• Ex Box INTENSE HOLIDAY/MEDAL COUNT/TAPITURE
• Tri Box CHITU/INTENSE HOLIDAY/MEDAL COUNT/TAPITURE
• Tri CAL CHROME/above four/above four)

(5/2/14 UPDATE: HOPPERTUNITY scratched yesterday morning, which is too bad as far as I'm concerned — as noted below, I thought he would be overbet, and his defection takes some of the value out of my other plays. I don't think his scratch impacts the race makeup much, though ... he didn't figure to be part of the pace, so the rest of the analysis below remains the same.

The only other note I have is that CALIFORNIA CHROME hasn't looked particularly great training over the track according to reports. I'm not totally switching my strategy to play against him, but I will up my "required odds to bet" to 4/1.

I'll be back with more later tonight or tomorrow.)

Before you go any further, I have to warn you: I started writing this year’s Kentucky Derby preview back on April 18.

In other words, this year’s edition of the Wothism Derby preview is every bit as long as it has been in the past. (About 11 pages of 12-point font follow below.)

This is my sixth year of writing an absurdly long Derby preview, and I’ve come a long way — after a handful of calendar years where I mostly treaded water, I turned a solid profit in 2013 for the first time. Between hitting (skip ahead to the next paragraph if you want to avoid my braggadocio) the Gulfstream Park Rainbow Pick 6, pegging the Preakness and Belmont winners, the Travers exacta and some nice Breeders' Cup winners, it was a fun year.

But I still missed the mark on last year’s Derby more than ever before. The horses I liked the most almost all ended up finishing in the back half of the field as the extremely fast early pace sunk most of their hopes.

What I’m saying, then, is this: I’m pretty good at this game now, but I could still certainly be way off on the Derby. For every big bet I’ve won, I’ve been wrong plenty more times. I'm confident the below analysis is solid, but please don’t run out and put your house on any of these horses. 

A few notes ...

I just have a few overarching notes for the less experienced horse fans to remember about the Kentucky Derby:

1. These horses are 3-year-olds, meaning they’re not yet completely physically mature in the truest sense of the word. They're capable of big, generally unforeseen improvements from race to race.

2. These 3-year-olds are running 10 furlongs for the first time in their lives — the longest any of them has run to date is 9 furlongs, and some have even run less than that. While this may not seem like a huge difference, one furlong is 660 feet. Ergo, an extra furlong is equivalent to an extra 2+ football fields. This extra furlong is generally considered “the championship furlong” — good horses can win at 9 furlongs, but only “true champions” can win at 10. 

3. These 3-year-olds running 10 furlongs for the first time ever are also facing the best horses they’ve ever faced, in front of a much larger crowd than they’ve ever seen. Many of these horses have run against a few of the others, but this a packed 20-horse field full of only the best of the best (fields typically don’t exceed 12, or at the most 14, horses in a single race). And the incredible size of the crowd can not be ignored: These are horses, flesh and blood … not machines. Temperament matters. For instance, PALACE MALICE strapped on some blinkers for the Derby last year and was ultimately so scared of the noise without being able to see it in his newly limited field of vision that he sprinted off to some of the fastest fractions ever in the Derby! And this was from a generally calm horse that had never needed the lead.

All of which is to say that there are a lot of unknowns in this race; even horses who went on to clearly be the best of their generation have lost the Derby due to any combination of the above.

A few more notes ...

I wrote the bulk of this before post positions were drawn and well before odds were out, so I ranked the horses from 20-1 in tiers that I labeled according to the chances I perceive the horse having. You’ll see some horses in their own tiers and some together with each other for now, and I’ll continually circle back to report on any updates and give a final list of “bets” vs. “non-bets” — in other words, I might ultimately be more interested in betting on a horse I have listed as the 10th-most likely winner at odds of 30-1 rather than a horse I have listed as the 5th-most likely winner at odds of 10-1.

The horses will be ranked solely on WIN PROBABILITY. The list below does not necessarily mean I think the 18th-ranked horse will finish 18th. In fact, I generally picture the horses I have ranked in that “PROBABLY CAN’T WIN” tier as being more or less a toss-up to finish ahead of the horse in the “POSSIBLE MONSTER IN THE MAKING” tier — the horses toward the bottom are just more likely to “be who they are” — they’re decent horses, but they have shown nothing special or even a sign of being special, and you have to be at least a little bit special to win the Kentucky Derby.

One final note (seriously, I’m almost done): I generally like the points system Churchill Downs enacted in 2013 to replace the graded earnings system as a means to determine the Derby field, but it’s a shame they don’t have some sort of exception for a dominant filly. As it is, a filly would have to win one of the major prep races against the boys, and that's a big risk to take! So now we’ve been robbed of a possible UNTAPABLE showdown against the boys, which is a real shame because she's the type that I think could have performed well against this group.

Predicted Pace and Race Shape

The pace will be fast. The way horses are bred these days, it just seems impossible to see a slow Derby pace anymore — I learned that last year, and there are plenty of horses here that want to be on the lead or up close early. I don’t think it’s impossible to win on the lead, but it will take a special, special horse to do it.

Here's generally where I expect horses to fall into place as they hit the backstretch:

On/very near the lead: VICAR'S IN TROUBLE, GENERAL A ROD, CHITU, WILDCAT RED, CALIFORNIA CHROME

Second flight behind the leaders: HARRY'S HOLIDAY, UNCLE SIGH, TAPITURE, HOPPERTUNITY, SAMRAAT

Third flight behind the leaders: INTENSE HOLIDAY, DANZA, MEDAL COUNT, VINCEREMOS, RIDE ON CURLIN, CANDY BOY, WE MISS ARTIE

At the rear: COMMANDING CURVE, WICKED STRONG, DANCE WITH FATE 

And now, without further ado ... here are my 20-1 rankings of this year's Derby field:

The "Seriously, why bother?" tier:

20. HARRY’S HOLIDAY (Post Position #2, 50-1 morning line): I literally know *nothing* about this horse. I follow this stuff pretty closely (obviously, as you’ll see below if you don’t believe me yet), but I had not heard of him until I heard he was getting in the Derby. He apparently finished second to WE MISS ARTIE in the Spiral after setting a blazing early pace and staggering home to lose by just a nose. He was then defeated by 28 lengths in the Blue Grass on synthetic, and he hasn't won on dirt since Dec. 20, 2013. I would not bet this horse at 100-1. I have literally nothing good to say here.

19. WE MISS ARTIE (PP #7, 50-1 ML): This is only slightly less of a joke. He was beaten by 17 lengths in the Fountain of Youth in his only 2014 start on dirt, but he won the Spiral on the fake stuff by a nose, so he's in! His Breeders' Cup Juvenile finish just four lengths back of the winner is probably his most impressive performance to date in terms of Derby evaluation ... but he was seventh in that race. The only reason I can give him a mild upgrade is because he comes from off the pace and he's better bred for the distance than HARRY'S HOLIDAY, but he's clearly a turf/synthetic specialist and it's hard to imagine him contending here, especially after a lackluster workout over the weekend.

18. WILDCAT RED (PP #10, 15-1 ML): Just a pure speedster without much apparent class from his pedigree. Not much looks good for him here, and if he couldn't hold on to a lead in the Florida Derby on the lead with a slow pace, I see no way he can do it on a less speed-happy track for another furlong. His performance in the Fountain of Youth actually was sort of impressive, but given the speed-favoring track, his breeding, his running style, and his lackluster appearance in Louisville so far (really surprisingly bad works), I can't possibly see him wiring this field, and the fact that he's 15-1 is extremely laughable.

17. GENERAL A ROD (PP #8, 15-1 ML): Just another speedster who I think will melt in the Derby pace. He has actually been beaten by WILDCAT RED in two of their last three starts, but he seems better bred for this and has showed a *bit* more restraint early -- he won't be coming from off the pace, but he might be more willing to sit back off of it just a bit. Either way, he was just sold to Starlight Racing this week ... who sells a horse that they think can win the Derby? And why would Starlight purchase a horse for the Derby when they already own INTENSE HOLIDAY? Hmm ... more on this later. Again, 15-1 here is just a complete farce.

The "Probably can't win but may plod up and hit the board" tier:

16. COMMANDING CURVE (PP #17, 50-1 ML): This is GOLDEN SOUL, the second-place finisher in 2013, all over again … same trainer, same plodding along, picking up the pieces style … he could very well bomb into the exotics like GOLDEN SOUL did and make them pay really nicely, but he’s just not anywhere near special enough. He has one win on his resume — yep, his maiden win. He was third, five lengths back, in the Louisiana Derby. He was bumped at the break and ran wide there, so you could say he's closer to VICAR'S IN TROUBLE and INTENSE HOLIDAY than lengths alone would show, but that was also by far his best speed figure to date. He'd have to take another big jump forward to win here, and I don't see it at all. I actually made the line on this horse 50-1, so if somehow he drifted up (he won't), I might actually consider a win bet despite his being placed in this tier.

15. VINCEREMOS (PP #9, 30-1 ML): I had him in the Sam F. Davis, but he has just been awful in the Tampa Bay Derby and the Blue Grass. I think he’s a tough, usable horse in exotics, but I would truly be surprised if he popped up and won. His breeding is solid, but it also indicated he should have taken better to the synthetic, so it's conceivable that you could draw a line through that performance and he could improve returning to dirt. That said, his workout at Churchill was generally unimpressive — not terrible, but not awe-inducing — and he'd have to improve *a lot.* Finally, trainer Todd Pletcher seemed on the fence about running him even when he was confirmed to be in the field if he wanted to be, so that doesn't inspire a ton of confidence, either.

14. RIDE ON CURLIN (PP #19, 15-1 ML): In nine starts, he has two wins, two seconds, four thirds and one fourth. Impressive consistency. On the other hand, he hasn't won a race at longer than 6 furlongs. Based on style and breeding, he just generally seems like he'll run all day, and if everything else falls apart, he could somehow win. But the Derby, while longer than these horses have ever run, typically requires some brilliance. Plodders don't win the Derby. I'd be interested in this guy in the Belmont if he runs there, but for now, I have to pass. DANZA, HOPPERTUNITY and TAPITURE have all beaten him recently. I think he's an almost must use in exotics at a likely nice price, but for a pure win bet? I just can't imagine how badly some of the more talented horses would have to fall apart for that to happen. Some of them may, but not all of them. I'm not all that bothered by him in post position 19 because I expect him to take back a bit, but it's obviously not ideal. Here's another horse that I don't see at 15-1 AT ALL.

The "Maaaaybe ... but let's be real here" tier:

13. VICAR'S IN TROUBLE (PP #1, 30-1 ML): He hasn't won without getting the lead, and he hasn't faced great fields. Not a great sign for the No. 2 horse on the points list. I don't think he's necessarily a terrible horse, but the expected hot pace scenario combined with the big step up in competition and an extra furlong for a horse with a pedigree that doesn't scream "classic distance" just doesn't seem like a good bet at all. I truly see no scenario in which I would be on this horse. On the positive side, he did run pretty quick early in the Louisiana Derby and still finished strongly enough to hold off a cross-firing INTENSE HOLIDAY, but — and this is a key distinction — he was by himself by a length on the lead. A horse running alone on the lead is typically much more relaxed than one that has to run eyeball to eyeball with another horse pushing him every step of the way.

12. UNCLE SIGH (PP #3, 30-1 ML): After SAMRAAT, his old New York rival, clearly got the best of him a few times, he disastrously switched tactics in the Wood, finishing seventh. I don't think the breeding supports this try, nor do the results to date. He's just another hard knocker who I think will likely attend the early pace and fade. I don't think SAMRAAT will win, and I don't see UNCLE SIGH beating SAMRAAT, so ...

11. CHITU (PP #13, 20-1 ML): The obvious knock here is that he wants to be on the lead and he hasn't proven himself by setting a really hot pace and holding on. I was more interested in this horse when I started writing this preview, actually, but that was before Bob Baffert was considering running him in the Derby Trial, before he lost a shoe and before his hoof damage came to light — there's just a lot of apparent negativity around this horse. On the positive side, I liked his breeding (by an A.P. Indy dam), his steady improvement (last three speed figs: 89-96-103), and his gutty second-place finish to CANDY BOY in the Robert B. Lewis. The bad news: He's always been on or very near the lead, his hoof has some possibly serious damage, and his trainer seemed more interested in running stablemate BAYERN in the Derby before it seems like CHITU's ownership put a stop to that idea. At big odds, I might consider this one, but the possibility of things going wrong for him seems a lot higher than the likelihood that they go right. I will add that I think he got the perfect post in 13 — there's absolutely no speed to his outside, so he may get a picture perfect trip if he can harness his speed at all. I ultimately made him 25-1, so he's somewhat near a bet even in this tier.

10. SAMRAAT (PP #6, 15-1 ML): This horse suffered his first defeat in the Wood but actually impressed me for the first time. Beating up on UNCLE SIGH got pretty old, so the work he did near the hot pace of that race really was impressive, especially at the distance. He's now run four straight 99 speed figures, which should indicate he's ready to pop a bigger one ... but 1 1/4 miles just seems like too much for him coming out of an Indian Charlie dam. He was worked a full mile — a rare move in horse racing these days — to apparently work on some of that stamina, but it was a relatively slow mile, so make of that what you will (I don't make much of it). He also likes to be closer to the pace than I'd prefer, especially for a horse with his apparent distance limitations. The question is ... is there really more there or is he just what he is at this point? My money will be against him. I will add that while I think SAMRAAT is clearly better than UNCLE SIGH by now, I don't see how 15-1 vs. 30-1 is justified. All but one of the field's 15-1 horses, in fact, I just find to be a complete joke. Speaking of that other horse ...

The "I really don't know" tier:

9. TAPITURE (PP #15, 15-1 ML): Pretty hollow performance in each of his last two. Absolutely no excuse in the Arkansas Derby as he actually regressed off a paired 99 speed figure in the Rebel and Southwest. It's pretty clear that he just doesn't run as well if he's not leading. Who knows what's up with Asmussen's barn, too -- was this guy on something that he's not anymore? You never know. I don't think so, but when you additionally consider his weak workout on April 22, this horse just completely seems like he's heading in the wrong direction. Finally, he has only won two races to date, and both have come when he's led at the second call. On the plus side, he has run at Churchill three times and won once with two third-place finishes, and he acquitted himself reasonably well in a workout in the pouring rain on April 28. In terms of what we've actually seen from him, he probably belongs lower, but the odds he has been bet down to in every start he's made seem to indicate there's more here than has met the eye to date. I don't plan on betting him because I literally do not know what to expect, but I wouldn't be all that shocked if he popped up and won.

8. CANDY BOY (PP #18, 20-1 ML): I liked him in the Santa Anita Derby, but then he got trounced by CALIFORNIA CHROME, so I'm not totally sure what to think. I generally expected him to be further off the pace than he was, so I feel like Gary Stevens took him out of his game a little bit. I would expect a smarter ride from Gary this time, but trying to predict jockeys is notoriously difficult. His breeding looks pretty iffy for the distance, but then again, Candy Ride's just are always indecipherable to me. He did have one of the better workouts I saw at Churchill, so I again feel like there's "something more" he has yet to show us. From a speed figure standpoint he's lacking, but he could be ready to move forward in his second off the layoff. 20-1 is halfway tempting here (I made him 24-1).

7. MEDAL COUNT (PP #14, 20-1 ML): Hmmmmph. Trainers are notoriously full of it — most of them will always tell you “the horse is doing great, we can’t wait to see him run in such peak condition” — but Dale Romans has historically shot pretty straight. And he says this is the best horse he’s brought to the Derby, which is not light praise considering he has sent out top-four finishers in three of the last four years (PADDY O’PRADO, SHACKLEFORD, DULLAHAN). On form alone, I really don’t see it — he was beaten pretty soundly by DANCE WITH FATE in the Blue Grass, and he needed to run there because he hadn’t done enough to date to warrant a spot in the Derby field. But Romans keeps touting this horse. He really has no reason to, either — this isn’t a situation where he has multiple horses in the field and maybe really wants to bet on the other one (see Baffert, Bob, and CHITU + HOPPERTUNITY). So, I’m generally inclined to take Romans at his word when he says this horse is really, really good. The thing is ... I made the fair odds here 22-1, so I'll be keeping an eye out.

The "Solid but overbet" tier:

6. DANCE WITH FATE (PP #12, 20-1 ML): His Blue Grass score was visually impressive, but he's been so much better on artificial surfaces (two wins and two seconds in five starts) than dirt (a second and an eighth-place finish) that it's hard to put a ton of stock in this. Additionally, his speed figure in the Blue Grass was a big jump for him, and it's a lot to ask for yet another improvement. On the other hand, he worked pretty spectacularly over dirt at Santa Anita on April 26 ... so it remains a question mark. His off-the-pace running style is a big plus, too, and that's why I put him this high — he's one of two true "out of the clouds" closers with quality in this race, so if he can handle dirt (Churchill's dirt surface is known for being more conducive to turf/synthetic horses than most dirt tracks) and the pace melts down, he could win. I just think that the visual impressiveness of the Blue Grass score will cloud the fact that his form is unlikely to transfer well. He's 20-1 on the morning line, but I really don't see that sticking; if it does, then he doesn't belong in the "overbet" tier at all — he'll belong in the "Bob is betting" tier.

(SCRATCHED!) 5. HOPPERTUNITY (PP #11, 6-1 ML): The case for him goes something like this: a) Baffert used the Santa Anita Derby as a prep race, b) HOPPERTUNITY wasn't fully cranked and the 5.25-length win for CALIFORNIA CHROME could be erased by another furlong and more conditioning. The case against him, which I will make, is this: a) Whatever the excuse, he got crushed by CALIFORNIA CHROME, INTENSE HOLIDAY (in the Risen Star) and only beat TAPITURE and RIDE ON CURLIN, b) His only wins have come when he has been within a length of the lead at the second call. Seems like kind of a toss-up, no? Which horse shows up here? I think he's a very solid horse, but not really all that different from a horse like SAMRAAT, for instance. I do like his breeding for the distance better than many others, and the generally paired speed figures in his last two races (100 and 99) are typically a good sign, but there's just no doubt that he'll be overbet as "Baffert's key horse." There seems to be some sort of perception that he could be equal with CALIFORNIA CHROME if he was asked in the Santa Anita Derby, but CALIFORNIA CHROME didn't feel the whip in that race, either. He could maybe win, but not with my money on him. One final note: Baffert's management of CHITU makes me think that, just maybe, he really likes CHITU and has built up HOPPERTUNITY as his real threat just to make the odds on CHITU better for himself/the owners/etc. I'm likely overthinking that, but there's a theory about the "other Baffert horse" in races like this and there's enough weird stuff going on here that I'll stay away. This line is definitely way too low — I would need 12-1 to consider him, even though I do think post 11 is pretty perfect for him.

4. WICKED STRONG (PP #20, 8-1 ML): From a visual standpoint, he could not have been more impressive winning the Wood. From a realistic standpoint, that race absolutely fell apart up front. Any horse could have picked up the pieces. That said, WICKED STRONG finished the final three furlongs in about 36.5 seconds, so it wasn't as if he was crawling to the finish line. He's bred for the distance and comes from off the pace, so there's enough to like here. What I don't love is how he was routed in two tries at Gulfstream over the winter in the Holy Bull and then again in an optional claimer by a combined 21.5 lengths. The excuse there would be that Gulfstream favors speed, but, you know, that didn't stop ORB last year. If he runs back to the Wood, he very well may be your Derby winner. But he figures to be one of the last three or four horses in the field, might bounce back to "normal" off of that otherworldly effort, and 17-19 horses in front of you is a lot of dirt to eat and a lot of traffic to navigate. I will say that I don't think post 20 hurts him all that much — he was going to drop back, anyway, so if anything this might help him in that he won't get banged around at the start. Finally, and this is definitely a very soft angle, but in addition to people overrating the Wood victory (which hasn't produced a Derby top-three finisher in a decade), the name of this horse pays homage to the whole "Boston Strong" mantra. The people who bet on horses based on their name are likely to gravitate to this one, so I'll again stay away. I made him 15-1 so definitely passing here.

The "Possible monster in the making" tier:

3. DANZA (PP #4, 10-1 ML): Allow me a brief moment to lament a bet that I "should have" made. It's a classic horseplayer regret, but in this case, I was legitimately trying to. With about two minutes to post in the Arkansas Derby and my BAYERN-RIDE ON CURLIN-TAPITURE exacta box locked and loaded, I took another look at the PPs and thought to myself, "You know, Todd (Pletcher, the trainer) doesn't need another runner in the Derby — I don't think he'd be running here if he thought he was that far in over his head. I should throw something on DANZA." I go to my ADW and they've closed the race for some inexplicable reason. I try to get to my other ADW and the password I have saved in Google Chrome isn't working. I'm frantically searching for it and finally get it as they're loading. I punch in a WPS amount as the last horse is walking in on my feed. NO DICE. Of course, DANZA won at 41-1. OY. Anyway, he sat off of a moderate pace in the Arkansas Derby, blew by up the rail and it was over. He looked incredible. The thing is ... I'm not sure he really beat anyone there. BAYERN was likely out of shape and/or just isn't that good (was beaten last Saturday in the Derby Trial against lesser out of competition), and as discussed, I have no idea what to make of TAPITURE at this point, and RIDE ON CURLIN is just kind of a plodder. In comparison with the other horses I've run through, though, this one seems maybe-sorta-possibly special. There's a seeming potential for greatness here — we just don't know what we're dealing with yet. I have him at 9-1 on my personal line, so I would indeed bet 10-1 here.

The "Just feels right" tier:

2. INTENSE HOLIDAY (PP #16, 12-1 ML): When I started writing this, I wrote, "I don't want to come out and say THIS IS MY DERBY HORSE, but ... ." Well, forget that now. THIS IS MY DERBY HORSE. I really liked his Risen Star win, I like his breeding, I like his generally paired speed figures (100 and 99, just like HOPPERTUNITY, actually), I like his off-the-pace running style, and I even liked his 3.5-length beaten effort in the Louisiana Derby (couldn't run down a loose on the lead VICAR'S IN TROUBLE while cross-firing (his front and back legs were out of sync, essentially — kind of like if a human was running with his right arm and right leg forward at the same time ... completely discombobulated)). The knock against him is that he has already been beaten by a number of horses in this field in the past: CAIRO PRINCE (actually out of the field now, but still) beat him three times, RIDE ON CURLIN beat him, WICKED STRONG beat him, and VICAR'S IN TROUBLE beat him. But as I noted near the beginning of this preview, these are 3-year-old horses. They develop and grow, and based on what I (and others) thought was the best work of any Derby horse, I strongly believe he's rounding into top form at the perfect time. He's also making his fourth start off of a layoff here with about 35 days between starts, and if they fixed that cross-firing issue (which, by all accounts, they think they have), he has every chance in this race. Finally, I mentioned earlier that I thought GENERAL A ROD being purchased was pretty weird — could he be in there to ensure an honest pace for INTENSE HOLIDAY to run into? He's kind of become "the buzz horse," which may ultimately lead him to be overbet, but as of right now, I expect him to be the fifth or sixth choice and to bet on him. At 12-1, he's a yes, please (I made him my 7-1 second choice).

The "Very deserving favorite, but can I really bet on a favorite in the Kentucky Derby?" tier:

1. CALIFORNIA CHROME (PP #5, 5-2 ML): Excuse me a moment while I kick myself a few times. 

...

OK, I'm back. The Kentucky Derby has "future wager" pools where you can bet on horses to win the Derby in four different pools in the months leading up to the race.

Anyway, there are a lot of funny bets we can look back on now as completely lost money (Honor Code at 12-1 was the lowest individual betting interest in Pool 2 and he's not running in the Derby, nor is No. 2 Top Billing, etc.), and I've never bet on horses in these pools because they're just generally impossible with the fickle nature of horses.

Flashback to Jan. 27 or so. I'm reviewing races from the weekend that was and watch the California Cup Derby. California Chrome blows away a pretty mediocre field. Ho hum, right? Normally, yes. I wouldn't look at his form, for instance, and say WOW, WHAT A WIN! But when I watched the race, I was absolutely blown away. He just blew by the leaders without any urging and then ran away from everyone. 

Now, to be fair, I've been fooled by my eyes in terms of "impressive" horses plenty of times in the past. But this was a time where I said, you know what, I'm going to bet on this horse to win the Derby during the next Derby pool.

Well, I didn't. I truly don't remember why, but I didn't. And now he's going to be something like 2-1 or 3-1 on Derby Day when I could have gotten 30-1 in that pool. WOOF.

Anyway, he's the horse to beat by a mile. With 20 horses and all of the traffic, it's hard to justify betting on a favorite, but ORB won as the Derby favorite last year, so it's not like they can't win.

The biggest issue I see is the pace for CALIFORNIA CHROME — while he has won from off the pace, he has won his last two races on the lead, and he was a close-up third in the aforementioned California Cup Derby. Even in that race, he didn't take dirt in his face; he sat wide and got that perfect kind of trip.

So, the question is whether you want to take something like 3-1 on a horse that is either going to have to a) run faster earlier than he ever has and still run longer than he ever has (and I'll add here that his pedigree for 1 1/4 miles does not necessarily look Derby-winner worthy) or b) do something he never has by getting some dirt in his race, fighting through it, and persevering to beat 19 other horses.

On the other hand, he is clearly the best horse in the race, so if he gets a good post draw (and not buried down inside like LOOKIN AT LUCKY in 2010), why wouldn't you bet on him when all of the dumb money is betting longshots based on the horse's names. The prevailing opinion is that *any horse* can win the Kentucky Derby (MINE THAT BIRD at 50-1 in 2009 reaffirmed this), and in the past few years the odds on some truly no-hope horses in the past few years have been laughably low. In other words, the favorite must have some value there.

As a racing fan, I'm pulling for CALIFORNIA CHROME because he seems like a lock in the Preakness (his speed and style on that track against fewer horses just strikes me as generally unbeatable) and the sport could really use added interest and, truly a Triple Crown bid, but do I actually want to bet on him in the Derby?

Well, not at 5/2. I think he belongs at 7/2, and I'll draw that line in the sand for myself right now. It will be interesting to see if he gets there. His Wednesday morning gallop was not pretty — he looked kind of awful compared to INTENSE HOLIDAY, actually, so I may even move that "line in the sand" up over the next couple of days if he doesn't start looking better.

Projected Top 5 Finishers and Bet List

I expect CALIFORNIA CHROME to be the only real speed that lasts and for INTENSE HOLIDAY and DANZA to get first run on WICKED STRONG and DANCE WITH FATE.

Ergo, my predicted top five order of finish is: 1. CALIFORNIA CHROME, 2. INTENSE HOLIDAY, 3. DANZA, 4. HOPPERTUNITY, 5. WICKED STRONG

With that said, here are the bets I plan on making at the moment (this list is subject to change given updates I get on the condition of horses and certainly how the actual odds look on Saturday):

Win bets on:

DANCE WITH FATE 20-1
DANZA 10-1
INTENSE HOLIDAY 12-1

I see some merit in enough of these horses that playing exotics is extremely difficult — I'd literally want to play about half the field in a trifecta, for instance. If I do anything, it would probably be INTENSE HOLIDAY wheeled with the following in an exacta: COMMANDING CURVE, WICKED STRONG, DANCE WITH FATE, CANDY BOY, MEDAL COUNT, DANZA, TAPITURE, RIDE ON CURLIN, HOPPERTUNITY, CHITU, CALIFORNIA CHROME. That's only a $44 ticket, so it might be worth a shot.

5/2 update, 11:03 p.m.: Quick look at the current odds and a brief comment on each:

Kentucky Derby Advance Wagering
1. Vicar’s in Trouble, 21-1 -- Yep, still pass. 
2. Harry’s Holiday, 35-1 -- Laughably low.
3. Uncle Sigh, 22-1 -- Nope.
4. Danza, 8-1 -- This is starting to feel a little bit low to  me. I have him right at 8-1 with the scratch of HOPPERTUNITY, so this would have to trickle back up for me to bet him to win.
5. California Chrome, 3-1 -- The closer the race gets, the less bullish I am on his chances. He's really one split-second at the start from losing hope because of all of the speed around him. Definitely need 4-1, I think, and don't see any way that shows up.
6. Samraat, 18-1 -- Conversely, I'm giving this one a little bit more credit. I had him No. 10 originally, and I'm inclined to use him on any exotics I might play at this point after hearing good reports from various sources.
7. We Miss Artie, 22-1 -- Even more laughable than Harry's Holiday. This has to be all Ramsey money, right?
8. General a Rod, 27-1 -- Would still have to trickle up even more to consider.
9. Vinceremos, 38-1 -- Remains a use in exotics, need closer to 50-1 to bother with a win bet.
10. Wildcat Red, 14-1 -- Yeah, no.
11. Hoppertunity, SCRATCHED
12. Dance With Fate, 14-1 -- Meh. 20-1 was a lot more appealing, but as I noted, I figured that wouldn't last. This is about right where I had him as fair, so would bet this only very lightly at this price.
13. Chitu, 25-1 -- Right on my line. If the track is playing fast, I'm interested.
14. Medal Count, 17-1 -- A little lower than the line I made, but I remain interested due to all the good vibrations I've heard around him.
15. Tapiture, 27-1 -- Love at this price.
16. Intense Holiday, 13-1 -- Love at this price, which is surprising since it seems like everyone likes him. 
17. Commanding Curve, 26-1 -- One guy I respect a lot thinks this one is worth a win bet. I still disagree --  especially at 26-1 -- but again, he's a must-use in exotics.
18. Candy Boy, 16-1 -- I remain halfway interested, but this price is too low.
19. Ride On Curlin, 12-1 -- Borel factor? Way too low.
20. Wicked Strong, 8-1 -- Too low.
21. Pablo Del Monte, SCRATCHED

Maybe I'll still come up with some great wagering strategy tomorrow, but there are enough horses I like enough that it feels more like *gambling* at this point than an educated investment. And, believe it or not, that's the goal of what I do!

Kentucky Oaks Preview

As I alluded to in the Derby preview, UNTAPABLE looks almost unbeatable based on her past two races. Her speed figures are that much higher than anyone else's in the field.

That said, the old saying goes that "pace makes the race," and she has a *lot* of company on the front end. She doesn't need the lead necessarily as she's pressed the pace nicely in her last two starts (won by a combined 17 lengths), but she has been within a half-length of the leader in both of those dominant wins. MY MISS SOPHIA and FASHION PLATE are no jokes, either.

I could see as many as eight of the 13 horses in the field leading or vying for it, so I'm taking a look at the horses that seem to have the ability to win from off the pace: ROSALIND, THANK YOU MARYLOU, GOT LUCKY, PLEASE EXPLAIN, and RIA ANTONIA.

Starting in post 12 and working our way in, if GOT LUCKY couldn't make up ground against a blistering early pace in the Gazelle — she was 4.5 lengths back of MY MISS SOPHIA at the second call and lost by 7.5 — it's hard to imagine her doing so today.

In post 4 (curveball!), ROSALIND ran huge at Keeneland in her last out, posting a 100 speed fig and dead-heating for a win by seven lengths with ROOM SERVICE (not running in the Oaks). Before that, though, she had been merely solid on dirt — in fact, she's never won on it! Her pedigree, too, is turf-oriented. What I like the most about her, actually, is that she has the best distance breeding in either the Oaks or Derby — she'll run for days. Still, we can find better.

In fact, I prefer THANK YOU MARYLOU in post 5 despite the fact that she was beaten by seven lengths by ROSALIND in the aforementioned Keeneland race. She has solid distance breeding, too, and should take a step forward returning to dirt and in her third off the layoff. She posted a sharp workout and at 30-1, this looks like a solid play. 

In post 2, RIA ANTONIA has been working lights out under the new-ish (March) tutelage of Bob Baffert — and should finally get a fast pace to close into again. She hasn't had one since she bombed home at 32-1 in the BC Juvenile Fillies, so this seems like a great spot for her at 10-1. Baffert putting the blinkers back on is interesting, too.

In post 1, PLEASE EXPLAIN clearly seems to lack the quality of the others, but she closed admirably in the Honeybee, placing third before getting placed 11th through disqualification. She shouldn't be 50-1, and I doubt she will be.

Summary: I think UNTAPABLE and MY MISS SOPHIA are pretty clearly standouts, but they'll have plenty of work to do with FASHION PLATE and each other up front. THANK YOU MARYLOU seems to offer a ton of value at 30-1, and I like RIA ANTONIA a lot, as well. Not sure exactly how I'll play it yet, but wheeling each of those in exotics and hoping another bomb staggers home after the favorites burn each other out seems like the way to play this race.

AND THAT'S IT. 

If you made it this far, you are very likely either a) related to me or b) insane. Congratulations on whichever category you fall into!