Hmmph. My first day of the 2012 Breeders’ Cup can be summed up as follows: I boxed up my top 4 horses in the Juvenile Fillies in search of hitting the tri, and it turned out that I would have hit the super if I had boxed up my top 5 for that bet. So, I did the logical thing and tried to hit the super in the Ladies’ Classic. This time, I would have hit the tri if I had tried boxing up my top 4.
So, yeah … that’s just classic.
A quick recap on the other races:
Juvenile Sprint: I don’t think many had HIGHTAIL here and I don’t feel bad about it. At least I had MERIT MAN to place, but, uh, that paid $0.40 on a $2 bet, so that didn’t go so far.
Marathon: This irritated me a bit as I wasn’t paying enough attention to the off odds. I loved GRASSY at the 30/1 ML and thought CALIDOSCOPIO at 8/1 was overbet. HOWEVER, GRASSY went off at 13/1 and CALIDOSCOPIO went off at 17/1. Ugh. GRASSY ran really well to finish second just as I expected, but at 17/1 I would have been on CALIDOSCOPIO without a doubt. Just foolish.
Juvenile Fillies Turf: TARA OF THE CAPE got a great trip just as I expected, but didn’t close. FLOTILLA wouldn’t have probably been more than my eighth choice, so whatever. Sometimes you miss.
Juvenile Fillies: After making such a silly mistake in the Marathon, I paid close attention to the odds here and thought DREAMING OF JULIA went off at much too high of odds. I also decided I would take a shot with a tri because, hey, my biggest issue with a favorite in this race was that BEHOLDER wouldn’t get the distance. Well, she got away with a slower half-mile than I expected, and she held it to the wire. Oops. I would have missed with SPRING IN THE AIR regardless, so whatever.
Filly and Mare Turf: I just totally missed this one. I ended up just betting UP and RIDASIYNA to win and boxed them up with THE FUGUE in exactas, and it turned out that ZAGORA was plenty brilliant. Oops.
Ladies’ Classic: I like AWESOME FEATHER the most and she struggled keeping up throughout, so I was just wrong again. That said, after my tri box failed in the Juvi Fillies with my top 4 horses when my top 5 would have hit the super, I took a shot at the super in this race with my top 5. Well, I would have hit the tri with my top 4 here. SONOFA …
Yeah, rough day. I feel like I had three races pegged pretty much correctly, but I didn’t bet them the right way. Oh well, that’s why this is a two-day event! Let’s do this:
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf: This is a wide-open affair with absolutely no clear favorite and a lot of guessing to be done. This does, at least, figure to be a more honestly run turf race than some of the others with more pace for closers to run at. From the rail out:
1. SUMMIT COUNTRY (E/P 5) 30/1 ML: Finished fifth by three lengths in the G3 Bourbon and that was with a somewhat troubled trip (notes say: bothered, stead 1/8). But that’s the best thing I can say about this horse, and he was 60/1 in the Bourbon. Easy toss.
2. ARTIGIANO (NA 0) 8/1: The first of six Euros in this field. He ran second in his last try, which was his first at a route distance. His lone win came in a pretty lowly race and at 6 furlongs. We can do better than 8/1 on this guy.
3. GEORGE VANCOUVER (NA 0) 8/1: His resume is basically the same as ARTIGIANO’s, so 8/1 doesn’t seem like a great bet to me here, either. The one difference is that he hasn’t tried a mile race yet and perhaps will appreciate the additional ground … but again, at 8/1, who knows.
4. GERVINHO (S 4) 15/1: Undefeated, but against pretty middling competition. Won a maiden race for Cal state breds on the fake stuff at Del Mar on Sept. 3, then won at a mile here at Santa Anita as the odds-on favorite. He has no problem passing other horses and should get the opportunity to do so late here, so let’s keep him in mind while remembering that he has a lot to prove in terms of class and speed jump (90-82-95 in his last is well below the par of 94-104-93).
5. FANTASTIC MOON (NA 0) 12/1: Won two pretty tough 7 furlong races to open his career – one of them a G3 – and then moved up to G2 competition at a mile, where he finished fifth. In that race, however, he was stuck in the rear, and then got bumped while trying to advance. To me, that race darkens his form to some casual race bettors and gives me better odds than I should get. I can’t figure out why FANTASTIC MOON is 12/1 and DUNDONNELL is 4/1, so that makes FANTASTIC MOON a pretty good bet at a nice price.
6. DUDONNELL (NA 0) 4/1: Yes, he has defeated the toughest field of any horse in this race. But it was only mildly tougher than the field FANTASTIC MOON beat, or the fields that BALANCE THE BOOKS or JOHA beat, and all are at higher odds than DUDONNELL. Yes, he could certainly win, but not at the price you should be getting.
7. BROWN ALMIGHTY (E/P 5) 20/1: You could almost make a case of him at this price based on the finish of the Bourbon in which he was steadied in the stretch yet still finished third, just 1.5 lengths back of BALANCE THE BOOKS. But, frankly, that’s more of an indictment than BALANCE THE BOOKS than anything. This horse just doesn’t appear to be fast enough to challenge at this level, and the breeding isn’t anything to write home about.
8. BALANCE THE BOOKS (S 0) 8/1: A winner of two straight, I actually expected him to be lower on the ML than this. I was pretty much all set to bet against him, but if he’s going off near double digits, I might have to reconsider. I generally didn’t think he has beaten much, and he’s going to have to run better than he did in the Bourbon to win here. But if he runs back to his score in the With Anticipation where he rallied like a freight train to nip JOHA at the wire? I think he can do it.
9. NOBLE TUNE (P 2) 6/1: This colt has won both of his starts fairly comfortably, but he also truly hasn’t beaten anyone of consequence. He has more to prove than BALANCE THE BOOKS and at a lower price, so I’m passing on this guy.
10. JOHA (E/P 8) 6/1: Here’s your likely pacesetter. I like him at the mile, as he would have beaten BALANCE THE BOOKS at that distance in the With Anticipation. I also really liked his last race in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, a place that pretty well mimics turf racing overall. He ran 93-104-87 there, figures that I think would stand up in this race if he can replicate him. Impossible to dismiss.
11. DRY SUMMER (S 4) 10/1: His 93-100-82 performance to win at Del Mar on Sept. 5 in a one-mile stake is probably the best figure race at the distance any horse in this field has run, but he was closing into a breakneck pace to pick up that win by a neck against a weak field. I think we’ll get a solid pace in this race, but not a suicidal one, and I think there are much better closers than DRY SUMMER here.
12. I’M BOUNDTOSCORE (E/P 8) 20/1: One of JOHA’s biggest worries has to be this speed coming from two posts outside of him. This horse was a turf sprinter until his last start, when he won going a mile over yielding turf at Woodbine. He had a very uncontested lead, however, and the field was weak. I think JOHA is going to be too much for this one on the front end.
13. KNOW MORE (E/P 8) 8/1: Some more outside speed. It’s pretty confusing why the connections felt like running KNOW MORE here rather than in the Juvenile itself considering that he has never raced on turf and his pedigree seems to indicate dirt would be his preferred surface. But, uh, whatever. At 8/1, the price seems way too low for a horse that hasn’t been a world beater on dirt and I think will be even less so on grass.
14. LINES OF BATTLE (NA 0) 12/1: Is coming off a win in a 7 furlong race over fake stuff over in Ireland and was favored in a 7 furlong race the caliber of which DUNDONNELL won but finished a neck back. Again, 12/1 here seems much better than 4/1 on DUNDONNELL.
OVERALL ANALYSIS: FANTASTIC MOON, BALANCE THE BOOKS, JOHA and LINES OF BATTLE seem like the most worthy candidates to me. Of those four, I think FANTASTIC MOON is not only quite probably the best horse, but he also has the best post – outside posts have been downright terrible in these turf races. FINALLY, we don’t have to worry about the Lasix question for FANTASTIC MOON, so this is a pretty easy decision for me. FANTASTIC MOON all the way.
Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint: I’m going to save myself typing out every horse here because, really, this is probably the most cut and dry race of the group. GROUPIE DOLL stands head and shoulders above the rest of the field. She has been an absolute monster who hasn’t won by less than three lengths since adding blinkers earlier this year. She beat MUSICAL ROMANCE by seven lengths on Derby Day and blew away STRIKE THE MOON by six in her last race. MUSICAL ROMANCE has not run back (even that close to) her F&M Sprint-winning effort last fall, so she can be pretty safely eliminated as overbet, in my opinion. There are really only two horses with a legit shot to topple GROUPIE DOLL in my opinion: TURBULENT DESCENT and DUST AND DIAMONDS. If TURBULENT DESCENT runs back to her 2011 form that won the Test Stakes, then she could win. Emphasis on could. The real horse that poses GROUPIE DOLL a threat is DUST AND DIAMONDS. Her last race was at 6.5 furlongs and a 95-104-98 effort that stamps her as the only true speed in the race. If she gets the uncontested lead, which seems almost certain, than GROUPIE DOLL could have a battle on her hands in the stretch. It’s those two and those two only in this race for me. Very simple for a change.
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile: I’ll try to be objective about this one even though SHACKLEFORD is pretty easily my favorite horse in training. If he runs anything close to his Met Mile earlier this year, he wins. But he has been somewhat off form and there might be a good candidate to take him out in this fairly tough field. There’s a lot of pace in here, so a horse that can sit back a bit is likely the ticket. From the rail out:
1. RAIL TRIP (E/P 5) 10/1: The mile distance probably suits him best, and he should benefit from cutting back to it. That said, at age 7, he’s not what he once was. I expect that he’ll run reasonably well, but I don’t see him winning against a field like this. I don’t think he’s capable of doing much more than a 100 speed figure anymore, and that simply won’t be enough.
2. DELEGATION (E 8) 12/1: Has never run on real dirt, nor has he ever cracked the triple digit speed figure threshold. He also hasn’t had to deal with a fast pace as a frontrunner – all of his races, win or lose, have been slow. He’ll see some real speed in this one and likely wilt early.
3. JERSEY TOWN (E/P 6) 4/1: After not winning in nearly two years, he parlayed an extremely favorable pace setup into being just 4/1 here in the Dirt Mile. Whaaaaa? He looked great in winning that race, but that was on an off track, too. He’s just 3-for-13 on fast tracks vs. 3-for-6 on off tracks, so that was another factor in his favor. All in all, I don’t see how he went off at 8/1 in the Kelso but now is 4/1 here.
4. JOHN SCOTT (E/P 5) 12/1: This horse has finished third and fourth in two dirt starts. Hmm. Granted, the fourth was in his first start back off a two-year layoff, but he didn’t have much of an excuse other than going wide in the Cal Cup on Oct. 13. One thing with this horse is that he’s never run into or with a truly brisk pace – like DELEGATION, he’s had a lot of slow-paced races to deal with. There’s a chance that a quicker pace up top could help his chances, but he could also run himself ragged trying to chase it. Too many questions, not enough class.
5. FED BIZ (E/P 8) 6/1: Ah, the highly touted FED BIZ. He has been favored nearly odds-on in all of his five starts, and he has won three of them. A wise guy Derby pick after he ran 90-94-100 to win an optional claimer at Santa Anita in February, he fell off the trail before re-emerging in the El Cajon at Del Mar and running 98-110-96 on the fake stuff. His last out was a disappointing third in the Indiana Derby, a race in which he set slow fractions up front but still couldn’t close the deal. That, however, was on an off-track, so if you also throw out his debut race, he’s undefeated on a fast track at a mile. He’ll have to improve some more and SHACKLEFORD and EMCEE might boil him up on the front end, where he prefers to be, but I’d prefer 6/1 on an improving 3-year-old to most of the other bets in this race.
6. SHACKLEFORD (E 8) 2/1: This horse is a joy. An absolute warrior. It’s easy to forget, though, based on the strength of his earlier performances this year, that he has only won 5 of 18 lifetime starts. In fact, after winning the Preakness last year, he dropped seven straight before pulling out an awesome victory over AMAZOMBIE and a jaw-dropping win over CALEB’S POSSE in the Met Mile. As mentioned, that race – which earned him a 115 figure after he ran 107-121-102 – was the best I’ve seen all year. But the question is this: Can he run that same race again today? Well, he seemed “off form” when he threw in a clunker in the 6 furlong Vanderbilt in August, a race in which he finished eighth, but THE SHACK simply hates off tracks – he’s managed no wins, no thirds, and only one second in four lifetime starts on them. Then, he had an illness, and then he ran off the layoff in the Kelso, where he ran a half mile in 45 seconds flat and still held on for second after posting a 106-116-85 performance for a 102 figure. It’s awfully similar to his last runs off layoffs: an 86-92-112 performance in the Carter, which led directly into his 98-112-91 win over AMAZOMBIE. Before that, he ran seventh in the Donn off the layoff, and was second in the Haskell off the layoff. In other words, he has never won off of a layoff. He has raced at the one-mile distance three times, winning once and finishing second twice (Kelso and last year’s BC Dirt Mile). Pace pressure has never bothered this guy, and he has sat back slightly off the pace early when it suits him. I’m betting SHACKLEFORD to move forward off his last start and close out his career with a win. I couldn’t live with myself if I didn’t.
7. EMCEE (E/P 8) 5/2: Drawing outside of SHACKLEFORD helps this horse a lot, obviously. If you draw a line through his Carter in which he lost his footing at the start, he has never finished worse than third and never lost by more than a half-length. Again, drawing a line through the Carter, he is 2-for-2 on fast dirt tracks, winning his maiden race by 4.5 lengths and his last effort, the Forego, with a huge 109 speed fig and a paceline of 86-95-114. To me, though, that doesn’t say all that much. Any horse can lope along just off the lead early and explode late. EMCEE has never been in a race with anything more than barely quick fractions, and guess what? He has finished third in both of those. You can definitely play both sides of the arugment with this horse, but as a SHACKLEFORD fan, I’m sticking with the notion that this guy will get fried up top and that I’d rather take my chances at twice the odds with FED BIZ sticking it out in a fight than EMCEE.
8. TAPIZAR (E 6) 12/1: Has run some really good races but has never actually beaten a horse of true import or class. He was a distant sixth in the Kelso last out and a distant fifth in the Dirt Mile last year. The bottom line seems to be that he just lacks the class to be in against horses like SHACKLEFORD. He dominated while walking on the lead in the West Virginia Governor’s Cup, but otherwise hasn’t won since January. His actual best race of the year was the Razorback in March at Oaklawn when he went toe to toe with ALTERNATION through solidly quick fractions and only lost by 1.5 lengths while running a 95-105-94 line. Still, if you’ve been paying attention, that’s not good enough here.
9. SECOND CITY (E/P 4) 30/1: Had four wins in four starts up in Canada before coming to Indiana to get trounced at 18-1 odds in the Indiana Derby, finishing 10th of 11. Really has no chance whatsoever.
OVERALL ANALYSIS: Since the entirety of the field is composed of E or E/P runners, there’s really no good choice coming off the pace like I would have hoped. This is so hard to believe that I had to look at it twice, but no horse in this field has won a race where he has been more than ONE HALF LENGTH back at the second call. If you go further back, JOHN SCOTT was much more of a closer in 2009, and perhaps he will be again if he finally gets a quicker pace. I certainly prefer him as the closer to JERSEY TOWN at 4/1. I know I’ll be betting SHACKLEFORD in some shape or form, especially if EMCEE becomes the favorite (very possible), but I have to be honest in my thought that FED BIZ probably offers the most value. That last race was flukey slow and he has a boatload of potential. I think he’ll take money as a hyped Baffert runner, though, so who knows where he’ll end up. I could see FED BIZ, EMCEE and SHACKLEFORD being co-favorites in the 3 or 4-1 range and getting something like 18-1 on JOHN SCOTT, in which case I would take my chances that they kill each other up top and JOHN SCOTT springs the upset.
Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint: Turf sprints are just impossible and defy most handicapping logic, perhaps even more so than the Marathon. In 22 turf sprints here at Santa Anita, the favorite has won just 18 percent and the $2 ROI has been -$1.10. That’s really, really bad. That tells you all you need to know about how hard this race is to handicap, so I am once again going to save myself some time and give some very general thoughts:
• First and foremost, this race is 6.5 furlongs on a downhill course. Now, this downhill course is FREAKING AWESOME, but the 6.5 furlong distance is barely a turn sprint since most turf sprints are 5 or 5.5 furlongs. So for most true turf sprinters, this is a different ballgame than they’re used to. It’s like asking a 100 meter sprinter to go out and run the 400 all of a sudden.
• Five horses are lower than 10/1 on the ML, but none of them are lower than 9/2. That horse would be BRIDGETOWN, but he hasn’t run longer than 5.5 furlongs in the past two years (if not longer).
• Nearly 1 in 4 winners go off at odds of greater than 10/1, so if you can find something with a price, you probably have good cause to bet it.
• Some thoughts on select runners:
o CALIFORNIA FLAG is 5-for-7 lifetime at this distance and 6-for-9 at Santa Anita, but he has raced just once this year, and that was back in April.
o NEXT QUESTION has won two straight starts at 6 and 7 furlongs, but might perform best in front and that might be relying too much on the break at 10/1.
o UPGRADE seems kind of generous at 30/1 given that he won his only start at 7 furlongs on firm turf with a 100 speed fig.
o MIZDIRECTION is 2-for-2 on this course with wins coming in January and February of this year. Comes in off a layoff, but she did the same in February before winning and looks nice at 20/1.
o UNBRIDLED’S NOTE won a G3 on this course on Sept. 28 and very well may be the class of the field, but why take the shot at only 5/1?
OVERALL ANALYSIS: MIZDIRECTION has been very versatile, winning both on and off the pace. I like that play the best. UPGRADE has as good a shot as many others that have much lower odds, so I’ll probably throw a few bucks on each of those and hope that things get crazy. I think UNBRIDLED’S NOTE will probably go off as the favorite based on the distance question for BRIDGETOWN, and CALIFORNIA FLAG would probably be the favorite if he wasn’t coming off the 6-month layoff. In terms of crapshoots, this is actually a reasonably solid race.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile: A pretty short field in comparison to year’s past, most likely primarily due to the Lasix ban. It’s still pretty interesting with four real solid horses and a pretty solid distribution of frontrunners and closers, so here goes from the rail out:
1. TITLE CONTENDER (E 6) 6/1: One of two Bob Baffert trainees in the race, this one seems fairly easy to toss, actually. He walked on the lead in both starts, and although he finished nicely to win by 2.5 and 3.5 lengths in each, respectively, he’s facing much tougher competition now even a :59 workout on Oct. 28 makes me change my mind here.
2. SPEAK LOGISTICS (E 6) 8/1: Another horse that needed an easy lead to win both of his starts, this one against even weaker competition. Easy pass.
3. HE’S HAD ENOUGH (S 0) 20/1: There was a lot of head scratching when KNOW MORE was entered in the turf and HE’S HAD ENOUGH was entered in this race by the Reddam Racing Team. It was almost like, wait, was this a mistake? This horse did break its maiden on the fake stuff at 6.5 furlongs, but the last try on Keeneland’s poly resulted in an 11th-place finish. Would be a real surprise.
4. SHANGHAI BOBBY (E/P 8) 2/1: Hasn’t even really been challenged yet and did show a little bit of a different dimension in coming from slightly off the pace in the G2 Hopeful. Proved he could handle a hot pace going 5.5 furlongs without much issue, but can he do it at 1.0625 miles? I’m not sure and while he’s a deserving favorite, it gives you reason to pause at 2/1.
5. MONUMENT (E/P 6) 12/1: The speed figures aren’t there, but he won at this distance on this track with an 89-98-76 on Oct. 13. Can he wheel back in three weeks and do it again? He has come from off the pace to win three of his four races, too, so he seems likely to offer good value.
6. DYNAMIC SKY (S 4) 12/1: Has a real nice chance if he can adapt to real dirt – all three starts to date have been on the fake stuff. He’s a confirmed closer with solid sustained runs, so I think he’s very live. An Oct. 20 work at Churchill went in 1:01.2, the 2nd fasted of 53 at the distance, so it seems he can handle dirt just fine.
7. CAPO BASTONE (S 3) 15/1: Just doesn’t stack up to the two similarly priced horses above at all. His pedigree also suggests that he doesn’t want to go this long. Curious spot for this horse and I want no part of it.
8. FORTIFY (E/P 7) 9/2: Let’s keep in mind that this horse was favored over SHANGHAI BOBBY back in the Hopeful on Sept. 3. He finished a clear second that day and was a length away from being a clear second again on Oct. 6 in the Champagne. The difference is that I like this horse more the longer he goes and he has showed steady improvement. He’s listed as an E/P horse but he has been third and fourth in his last two races at the second call against slow paces. If he gets a stiffer pace up front, like his chances to make some noise down the stretch.
9. POWER BROKER (E/P 8) 5/2: Bob Baffert’s other runner that pressed a soft-ish pace on this track at this distance in his last out and won by 6.5 lengths. This, however, was a MUCH weaker field than the likes that FORTIFY and SHANGHAI BOBBY faced. He could just be a dirt loving freak and win for fun, but at 5/2, that’s a big assumption.
OVERALL ANALYSIS: Gun to my head, I’m taking FORTIFY to win, but 9/2 doesn’t seem like great value. DYNAMIC SKY to adapt to the dirt seems pretty good at 12/1, so that’s what I’d call my “best bet” here. SHANGHAI BOBBY is certainly dangerous and it would be fun to see him freak again and go into next year as a stone-cold Derby favorite, but I can’t bet him at 2/1. MONUMENT really hasn’t beaten much of anyone, but I think he’ll drift up in the odds and could be a nice play at 15/1 or more.
Breeders’ Cup Turf: I don’t think this is really close to the classiest field you’ll ever see in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, but it’s interesting nonetheless. The pace should be fairly quick as there are a number of horses who have done their best running on the lead, so we’ll see if a hot pace materializes up front. There are some clear and obvious favorites here that are hard to ignore, but I can make a case for some others, too. From the rail out:
1. POINT OF ENTRY (E/P 6) 3/1: After a fourth-place finish to open his 2012 campaign, this 4-year-old has won five straight, including three races at the BC Turf’s distance of 1.5 miles. He has won three straight G1’s and frankly hasn’t even been pushed. If there’s any worry, it’s that he hasn’t been faced with a quick pace like he’ll see today, and he likes to be a length or two off the pace. Overall, though, 3/1 seems like a true bargain.
2. TURBO COMPRESSOR (E/P 6) 15/1: Wilted at 1.5 miles at Saratoga in August, which was somewhat surprising since he won nicely at 1.375 miles at Monmouth in July. He has just generally been off form as of late. His best races have come up on the lead, but suddenly last race he was 8.5 lengths back of SLIM SHADEY at the second call and although he rallied, made up no ground in the stretch. So this one is kind of darned if he does – LITTLE MIKE and SLIM SHADEY will be intent on making the pace – and darned if he doesn’t – because he’s not going to close like POINT OF ENTRY or any of the Euros. He’s in too deep here.
3. ST. NICHOLAS ABBEY (S 1) 7/2: The defending champion of this race, he closed like a freight train to win at Churchill last November. I’m willing to excuse his 11th place finish in the Arc due to the heavy going, and some of the other horses he’s been beaten by this year – SNOW FAIRY, NATHANIEL, DANEDREAM, FRANKEL – would easily be the favorites in this race. Besides the flukey Arc this year, he has never been beaten by more than 1.5 lengths at 1.5 miles. I don’t necessarily think there’s any value at the 7/2 ML, though. It seems about right given that there is a question if he’s off form after the Arc, and he has had a long campaign dating back to March that has consisted of flying from England to Dubai, then Ireland, then England, then Ireland, then France, and now here. I’d rather have POINT OF ENTRY at roughly the same price, and it should be noted that this race will almost surely be run differently than the BC Turf last year, when the pace was absolutely crawling throughout.
4. TREASURE BEACH (E/P 3) 12/1: Kind of a Euro, kind of not at this point. This horse has run his best on yielding turf and was fifth, beaten ten lengths by POINT OF ENTRY, earlier this summer at Belmont. LITTLE MIKE also beat him in the Arlington Million. Very unlikely against this field.
5. SHARETA (NA 0) 7/2: Second in the Arc last year, this filly won two G1s heading into this year’s Arc before being another victim of the heavy going. I could go into more detail, but really I’m passing here because of her poor effort in her lone start on firm turf. She was 7th in last fall’s Japan Cup, so whether it was the firm turf or the trip to Japan, she’ll be facing the same issues with her trip to Santa Anita and firm turf here, so 7/2 is too low for me.
6. COGITO (NA 0) 30/1: Reddam Racing continues its questionable placement of horses at this year’s Breeders’ Cup. COGITA finished second in a decent G2 in France back in July, then came here and ran fourth in a lesser G1 here in the U.S. Just doesn’t seem to have a chance at all.
7. LITTLE MIKE (E 7) 12/1: A horse that primarily specialized in mile races throughout his career, he was a mild surprise at 1.125 miles on the Kentucky Derby undercard, and again surprised in the Arlington Million after he got an uncontested lead. His last out came against POINT OF ENTRY and everyone wondered if he could get 1.5 miles, and it seemed he answered that question with a fifth-place finish. HOWEVER, that came on yielding turf, and he was 2.5 lengths back at the first call (he had been first in all of his previous races and 12 back at the second call. So, the bottom line is that he simply didn’t handle the yielding turf and we can cross it out. Still, I don’t think he can get the 1.5 miles against these horses. I think his connections would have preferred the Mile but knew OBVIOUSLY would tear him up and decided they could take a shot that SLIM SHADEY let him get away. And, hey, that could happen … but all indications say otherwise, and TURBO COMPRESSOR could mix it up, too. Probably not worth it against these.
8. KINDERGARDEN KID (S 3) 30/1: Just clearly and completely outclassed here. Doesn’t belong at all.
9. DULLAHAN (S 2) 12/1: Definitely your biggest question mark of the race. I’ve been a noted DULLAHAN opponent throughout his career – see my Belmont preview for that – and he still hasn’t won on anything but fake stuff. He’s a synthetic freak that still hasn’t won on any other surface. He was beaten by much weaker in his last race, but he was severely compromised by a slow pace. For the first time in his career, DULLAHAN might be a bit undervalued. That said, he still hasn’t won on the turf against anyone, and this is deep water to break that turf maiden. Finally, 1.5 miles is probably too long for him, so forget it.
10. OPTIMIZER (E/P 6) 20/1: I’ve hated on OPTIMIZER even more than DULLAHAN. This joke of a horse ran in all three Triple Crown races and was terrible, although to be fair, I shouldn’t call him a joke anymore as he won a G3 at Delaware by 4.5 lengths in his last out. He won his race right before that, too, giving him three wins and one second in five starts on turf. So, hey, maybe he’s found his niche! Problem for him is that these last two front-running turf wins have been against weak fields and they’ve been front-running … which won’t work against strong competition up front. Not much of a chance.
11. SLIM SHADEY (E/P 5) 10/1: He’s going to the front and will go as fast as he can for as far as he can. He’s tried different tactics throughout his career and that works by far the best for him, so that’s what he’ll do. But I think LITTLE MIKE has a lot more class. SLIM SHADEY has also been beaten by TURBO COMPRESSOR (though he turned the tables in his last), and I think the real contenders in this race are better than either of those, so SLIM SHADEY is an underlay at 10/1.
12. TRAILBLAZER (S 0) 6/1: Ran second to OBVIOUSLY in the American debut last-out, and the mile was almost surely too short for him, so I actually think it was a really good showing. I have to proclaim some ignorance in how good the competition he faced in Japan actually was, but he won a couple G2s over there and was just 2.5 lengths back in a G1. I could see him drifting up and offering some value, but as it stands, I have too many questions.
OVERALL ANALYSIS: Well, it feels like I tossed just about every horse other than the two favorites. But, hey, favorites have to win sometimes! It’s really hard to imagine a scenario in which POINT OF ENTRY or ST. NICHOLAS ABBEY don’t win. I guess the two other horses I view as “most live” are LITTLE MIKE and TRAILBLAZER, but I have plenty of questions with both. If the prices improve dramatically on them or POE and SNA take a lot of money, I might take a shot with one of them.
Breeders’ Cup Sprint: This is a phenomenal betting race. It doesn’t turn me on from a fandom or “great race” standpoint – I don’t think any of the horses here are truly that special, even the defending BC Sprint champ AMAZOMBIE – but so be it. There’s a solid amount of speed as you might expect in any sprint race, but there’s not THAT much speed, if that makes sense. I think this race is most likely to be won on or near the pace. This race is just so tough to pick through that I kind of have to make that stand right now … you can really make a case for any horse as almost all of them have run at least one race good enough to win here. From the rail out:
1. SUM OF THE PARTS (E 8) 20/1: And here’s your probable pacesetter on the rail at 20/1 despite having won 4-of-4 non-turf starts this year! Has led at both the first and second call of all of his races – even the unsuccessful turf try (finished a half-length back in second) – so he will almost certainly be on the lead again. Has run 21 and change and 44 and change and still held on to win, so there’s no reason to think he can’t do that here. The fields he has beaten haven’t been strong and he may absolutely crumble against a classier horse, but on a speed-favoring strip as possibly the lone real speed, he could get away with one here.
2. JIMMY CREED (E/P 3) 6/1: This $900,000 son of DISTORTED HUMOR is obviously pretty classy and finished just .75 lengths back of COIL in his last start, which was his first loss at the 6 furlong distance. I certainly could make a very good case for him, but again, he’s been coming from further off the pace recently, and I don’t think that will work so well for him this time around. It’s only his sixth lifetime start, too, so he might be somewhat green compared to many others. Finally, I think I’d rather see him in the Dirt Mile than here. I think that will be a better fit for him as he grows older – his closing figures at 6 furlongs are really strong and make me think he wants more ground.
3. GANTRY (E/P 6) 10/1: Switched from turf to sprinting last fall at Belmont and reeled off four straight wins, finally getting a shot at graded company in the Churchill Downs when he finished third, five back of AMAZOMBIE. He was beaten at 3/10 odds in his last race and comes in off the layoff, and his work here was slow for what generally looked like a solid workhorse. Lots of class issues and form issues – don’t see how he goes off anywhere near 10/1, to be honest.
4. COIL (E/P 3) 5/1: Three wins in three starts at this distance and a solid winner in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship last out by a head over CAPITAL ACCOUNT. This horse is one who generally hasn’t seemed to care if the pace is fast or slow, though – he just gobbles up fields regardless. He’s won at as long as 9 furlongs and then, of course, three times at 6 furlongs. To me, there’s no question that COIL is the class of the field. I would generally say I’m looking for a price in this race, but COIL is one favorite I would take at a generous number.
5. JUSTIN PHILLIP (P 0) 20/1: He’s only actually won on a fast track ONCE in his 13 tries on one. And based on the whole pace idea I have, he doesn’t work well here at all.
6. FAST BULLET (E/P 6) 12/1: Here’s your major wild card. This horse is 4 years old but hasn’t raced since Nov. 12 of last year. He won his two starts by 6.5 and 3.5 lengths. The competition was poor, yes, but Bob Baffert isn’t exactly a fool when it comes to winning big races. He obviously thinks he fits and he has registered two bullet works here in the month of October. He figures to be right up on the pace … so, hmm. I’m not saying, I’m just saying … I don’t want to doubt Baffert’s placement ability here. Frankly, he might think he can slip him in and get some sweet odds on a horse he sees as truly superb. The horse has been working all summer, basically, so there was really no reason he hadn’t run beforehand. Just kind of crazy.
7. THE LUMBER GUY (E/P 5) 6/1: The winner of the Vosburgh on an off track, he seems to be the trendy pick among sharps that I follow. I personally don’t see it at 6/1. Yes, he ran a nice race, but the field wasn’t exactly the strongest ever, and he’s not near as regally bred as many of the other horses in the race. He just feels quite a bit overbet to me.
8. CAPITAL ACCOUNT (P 2) 8/1: He has never actually won at 6 furlongs. 6.5 and 7 furlongs, yes, but he’s 0-for-4 at 6 furlongs. He wants more distance. He also is 4-for-5 on all-weather (fake) tracks but just 1 for 4 on dirt. He certainly could grab a minor placing but I don’t think he’ll get up in time for the big prize.
9. TRINNIBERG (E 7) 15/1: He relaxed a bit more in his last race to sit back off the lead before taking the lead into the stretch and getting caught to lose by half a length, but this is probably the other horse I can pretty safely say we’ll see on the lead. People are down on TRINNIBERG after three straight losses, and that’s fine with me. I think 15/1 is really nice value here. He was right on the pace of 21.4 and 43.8!! second splits on a day at Parx that was not kind to frontrunners, yet he still stayed on to nearly win. That’s really impressive. He has run speed figures of 102 in both of his 6 furlong starts this year. He’ll have to improve, but in his second off the layoff and primed with a sharp workout here on Oct. 27, I like TRINNIBERG a lot.
10. SMILING TIGER (E/P 2) 12/1: For some reason, it feels like this horse has been around forever. He should have stayed home this time as he’s another AW specialist who has won just once on a fast dirt track. He has typically come from off the pace and is off of his best form from 2011, as he has managed just one third and two fifth-place finishes in three starts this year.
11. AMAZOMBIE (E/P 4) 4/1: This is a pretty consistent, gritty horse who ran a huge race in the BC Sprint last year. But in his only race at 6 furlongs on dirt since, he was fourth last-out behind three other competitors in this race without much of an excuse. He’s not necessarily a false favorite, but with so many other talented options, I expect more out of a 4/1 horse.
12. HAMAZING DESTINY (P 1) 12/1: This horse delivered a nice win for me on Preakness Day at 6 furlongs, but that was against a pretty weak field. He has been fourth, fourth and second against tougher field since and will be further off the pace than I want my pick to be here. I’ll pass.
13. POSEIDON’S WARRIOR (E/P 6) 15/1: This horse had run some pretty big speed figures in the past at places like Penn National and Parx – particularly last year – but floundered whenever he had taken on big-track competition. Then, in a try in the G1 Vanderbilt, he caught a muddy track that he apparently loved and beat a pretty stout field to score at 36/1. He ran well enough in the Vosburgh to not totally dismiss him here, but I’d want something more like 25/1 to get involved again.
14. BOXEUR DES RUES (P 0) 30/1: I think Paul Reddam and Doug O’Neill were high when they entered horses for the Breeders’ Cup. That’s my only explanation. This horse is 1-for-6 lifeitme on the dirt and was running 1.5 miles in the Brooklyn as recently as June. Now he’s in the best sprint race in the world? If he wins, I will immediately demand a thorough drug test as there is no way he belongs.
OVERALL ANALYSIS: The more I considered this race, the more I like TRINNIBERG. His last race pace figure of 117 is enormous – definitely the best in the field – and that has often been a nice indicator of continuing form and likelihood of success if said horse gets a slower pace. I also obviously like SUM OF THE PARTS. The real concern for me is these two hooking up and killing each other, which absolutely could happen. I think TRINNIBERG has matured enough to sit just off of SUM OF THE PARTS, but that can be a fine line between settling and pressuring. Either way, I think those two horses hold the most value. If they can’t get it done, I think COIL is the most likely to sweep by them in the stretch, although again, you can make a case for so many of these. FAST BULLET is really interesting and I think it will be important to see how early betting impacts his odds – if you see a strong move to him, it could be that he is even more live than I think he might be.
Breeders’ Cup (Turf) Mile: THIS is a Breeders’ Cup race. This race has the best talent and the best storylines. I can’t wait to talk about this race, so let’s get to it:
1. MR. COMMONS (S 3) 12/1: I bet this horse at 20/1 in last year’s BC Mile and he was rank early and ultimately finished fourth. In seven starts at a mile on firm turf since, he has won two, finished second thrice, third once and fourth once, never beaten by more than two lengths. He’s always coming late, but the field he faces today is almost certainly by far the best field he’s ever seen. The water is too deep this time around.
2. WISE DAN (P 6) 9/5: This horse is an absolute monster. After a fourth-place finish in the Shadwell Turf Mile last October at Keeneland, he has won 6 of his last 7 starts. And the wins have come on turf, dirt, and even poly! I think the connections made the absolute right call in running on the turf as his only defeat in that time span came by a head on dirt. He makes every win look so easy. Check out these winning margins: 4 lengths. 3.5 lengths. 10. 5, 3.5 and 2.5. Goodness. And these are G1 and G2 races! It’s nuts. He’s 4-for-5 on the turf lifetime and 4-for-5 on the turf at this distance. He’ll probably sit just off of OBVIOUSLY and blow by in the stretch. I can’t find anything bad to say about this horse whatsoever.
3. OBVIOUSLY (E 8) 6/1: This is your lone speed horse, but you can throw any notion that he’s going to lope along on the lead out the window. He has only run at a mile three times, but every race has been kind of ridiculous. He has won by 5 lengths, a nose, and a half-length, which is great, but his early splits are just seemingly hilariously unnecessary. He opened up five lengths at the first call of the Del Mar Mile, going 22.6 and 45.4 seconds. He went even faster in the race before that, opening up with a 22.2 split. And, again, he has never been pressed into these – that’s just how he does it. And I’m OK with that: He has a high cruising speed, so he should use it. Slowing it down and trying to kick home with the Euros would almost certainly have disastrous results, so he might as well try to run them off their feet. I just think that WISE DAN is exponentially better and that I’d need to see 15/1 to be OBVIOUSLY here.
4. JERANIMO (P 0) 15/1: He won two starts back, but the speed fig was low and he hasn’t popped off a 100+ speed fig since last year’s BC Mile. He had a nice workout on Oct. 28 at Hollywood, but that doesn’t mean as much to me as a work here at Santa Anita. He has split with MR. COMMONS in their last few meetings and was well-beaten by 4.5 lengths by OBVIOUSLY in his last. My level of confidence is low in this one.
5. ANIMAL KINGDOM (S 2) 8/1: Almost by definition, this horse will be overbet. He has ran twice on the turf in his career, finishing second back in March 2011 and then winning an optional claiming race in February in his lone start this season, and he obviously has plenty of class after winning the Kentucky Derby and nearly the Preakness. But, wow … this is one hell of a spot for a comeback. If it was most other horses and trainers, I’d immediately dismiss him. But I have a lot of respect for Graham Motion, so I’m trying to figure out why he’d bring him back in the toughest BC race of the year. I mean, really, I’d make him lower odds in the Classic than I would in this race. This is just an incredibly tall task. I’ll be rooting for him, but he won’t be getting my money.
6. EXCELEBRATION (NA 0) 2/1: Allow me to list the horses that have beaten EXCELEBRATION since May 2011: Frankel, Frankel, Frankel and … FRANKEL. (OK, Zoffany also finished ahead of him in one of those races.) But wow – if FRANKEL is the best horse ever (and he’s the best I’ve ever seen, at least), what does that make EXCELEBRATION? Well, we might find out just how good FRANKEL has been based on how EXCELEBRATION runs tomorrow. If EXCELEBRATION decimates this field and he was getting routinely decimated by FRANKEL, then, yeah – FRANKEL’s legend gets even more illustrious. If not, maybe FRANKEL wasn’t as good as we all wanted to believe. Anyway, my one concern here is that maybe he doesn’t like firmer ground as much as softer. He has two wins, one second and one third on Good going versus four wins and two seconds on Soft going. He’ll get it firm as can be at Santa Anita tomorrow, so that’s the one question mark. But seeing as how this horse hasn’t lost to anyone other than FRANKEL lately, I’ll take him against the Americans at almost any price.
7. WILLCOX INN (S 3) 30/1: I guess he’s here because he only lost to WISE DAN by 2.5 lengths in his last race. But I think the mile is too short for him, and the only races he has won in the past few years have been against field that are much weaker than this one.
8. SUGGESTIVE BOY (E/P 5) 15/1: Can the Argentines strike again? This guy came from South America with four wins and one second in six turf starts but finished second in his U.S. debut at a mile to Jeranimo. He took his next start in an ungraded stake against a fairly solid field, then finished fifth while going over a mile in a few starts on fake stuff and dirt. So now he’s back to turf, which he likes best, and a distance that I think suits him best. That said, 15/1 seems roughly right on with the couple monsters in this race. More than 20/1 could be intriguing.
9. MOONLIGHT CLOUD (NA 0): God, this field just keeps spitting out good horses. The winner of 3 G1’s since last year, she comes off a win over the very talented FARHH. In her race prior to that, she was just 1.5 lengths back of EXCELEBRATION after she was “badly hampered” while making steady progress, according to the notes. Hmm. HMM. 6/1 seems about right, but 10/1 might pique my interest tomorrow.
OVERALL ANALYSIS: In a nine-horse field, I want to keep an eye on WISE DAN, OBVIOUSLY, EXCELEBRATION, SUGGESTIVE BOY and MOONLIGHT CLOUD. I think WISE DAN will almost certainly be overbet, so I’d probably rather stay away there. The same might be true of EXCELEBRATION, though, and I wonder if MOONLIGHT CLOUD might not be “just as good” based on finishing so close despite trouble in their lone matchup. OBVIOUSLY and SUGGESTIVE BOY are a few that I’d probably rather avoid, but I don’t want to let them go off at huge odds without getting a piece.
Breeders’ Cup Classic: I’m doing my best to talk myself into getting excited about this. Although I don’t think any of these horses are truly special, there are plenty of very good horses and hey – you dance with the ones who brought ya. The problem I was finding myself with on the first run-through is that you can make a case for so many of these, but let’s just get started:
1. POOL PLAY (S 0) 30/1: This horse is UNDEFEATED on dirt. Sure, nobody can figure out exactly why he’s only run on it twice in his 32-race career, but he bombed the Stephen Foster at 36-1 in June 2011, then won the Hawthorne Gold Cup his last-out at 16-1. The Gold Cup came at 1.25 miles, but he didn’t really beat anyone much there. Still, if he drifts up a bit, I probably won’t be able to resist him at 40/1 for a little bit.
2. FLAT OUT (P 2) 5/1: Some horses, like SHACKLEFORD, you just feel like you have to bet on. This is a horse I just have to bet against. He beat STAY THIRSTY by a gutty head in the Jockey Club Gold Cup on Sept. 29 in a really gutty race, but this horse still has won just 4 of 15 starts on a fast track in his career. He’s a solid horse that’s getting priced like he’s a great horse. This has happened throughout his career and I still can’t figure it out. He’s a definite money burner.
3. ALPHA (E/P 7) 20/1: Won a flukey Jim Dandy on the lead, then beat a bunch of garbage (generally speaking) in the Travers at 1.25 miles after laying just off the pace. Went to the lead again in the Pennsylvania Derby and ran out of gas that time. He came off the pace earlier this year, though, so who knows what to expect this time. I’d need more like 30/1 to take a shot with this total question mark – honestly, even his best performances probably haven’t been enough to win this, and he seems unlikely to be his best today.
4. FORT LARNED (E/P 5) 5/1: Notched a bullet work at Churchill earlier this week and was favored over FLAT OUT in the Gold Cup before ultimately finishing third, beaten by 5.5 lengths. My thing with FORT LARNED is that while I don’t want to call him a strict NEED THE LEAD type since he won from just off the pace in the Whitney, if he’s not leading at the second call, he’s not likely to win. In 8 starts this year, he has 4 wins, and he’s been leading at the second call in three of them (he was one length back in third for the Whitney, but it should be noted that he hit the stretch four lengths in front, so it was a big middle move. He tired in his last race but, then again, it was his first off a layoff and he needed a race off his last layoff, too, before getting down to the business of running well. I’m going to say 10/1 is my cutoff line for FORT LARNED.
5. GAME ON DUDE (E/P 7) 9/5: Has lost just one race in North America this year, and that came on fake stuff. He’s 5-for-5 lifetime at Santa Anita and doesn’t seem to matter much how fast or slow he goes early. He’s also shown a little bit of maturity in not needing to lead at the first call lately, although he’ll likely be there by the second call. The one question most will bring up is his record at 1.25 miles, but he still has two wins and three seconds at 6 starts at the distance, AND turned in his highest speed figure of the year at the distance. He also (probably) has upgraded his jockey (many would say “probably” is unnecessary) and 2/1 seems kind of generous if it lasts.
6. BRILLIANT SPEED (P 3) 20/1: Anyone that bets this horse to win when he’s 1-for-5 lifetime on dirt, hasn’t run on dirt since July 2011, and is just 3-for-20 lifetime PERIOD is insane. Honestly, he should be 50 or 60-1.
7. HANDSOME MIKE (E 6) 30/1: Got a gift of going very slow on the pace in the Pennsylvania Derby and stuck it out to beat MACHO MACHO. Not all that impressive, especially since it was just his second win in 10 starts. I’ll pass as the competition gets much stiffer against his elders here.
8. NONIOS (E/P 4) 20/1: Many people were excited to see NONIOS try the Dirt Mile off of a solid second to GAME ON DUDE in his last out. Count me in that group. In his Travers try, he lacked a late kick, and his late kick in last race was probably only due to a slower pace up top. I don’t think 1.25 miles against these is something he’s ready for at this stage.
9. RICHARD’S KID (S 0) 12/1: Boy, he’ll be coming late. He’s tangled with GAME ON DUDE twice now at 1.25 miles this year and fell 1.5 lengths short once and was 2.5 back the other try. If GAME ON DUDE gets any pace pressure and has to go faster than either of those races, RICHARD’S KID could spring the upset as a 7-year-old.
10. RON THE GREEK (S 0) 6/1: I’ve had a generally low opinion of this horse all year, but he did win the Santa Anita Handicap at 1.25 miles. I think that field was pretty weak, but he validated it with a win in the tough Whitney Handicap. His last out was a flag non-effort in the Gold Cup at 1.25 miles – he finished sixth, 11 lengths back of FLAT OUT. At 10/1, I like this horse. He reminds me of DROSSELMEYER (a horse I never thought much of) in that seems one-paced and just grinds. Not flashy but able to pick up the pieces if things fall apart in front of him.
11. MUCHO MACHO MAN (E/P 5) 8/1: I’ve also bet against this horse pretty consistently, but I might change my tune here. He kind of got run off his feet in the Alysheba in May, but he bounced back to win the Suburban with a gaudy speed fig and ran second by a neck to TO HONOR AND SERVE in the Woodward. There appears to be some true value here and maybe Mike Smith can take down the Classic double.
12. TO HONOR AND SERVE (E/P 5) 8/1: I’m OK drawing a line through his last race because I don’t think he liked the off going. Before that, I don’t really know. I bet him last year in the Classic and he loomed dangerously before not running on home, ultimately finishing seventh but just 3.5 lengths back. From there he took down the Cigar Mile and then the Westchester dominantly in April. Then he threw in a clunker in the Met Mile and didn’t do anything in the Suburban before winning the Woodward. He has looked really good on the track lately but I just don’t know here – will probably leave him alone unless he drifts to, say , 12-1.
OVERALL ANALYSIS: POOL PLAY, FORT LARNED, GAME ON DUDE, RICHARD’S KID, RON THE GREEK, MUCHO MACHO MAN and TO HONOR AND SERVE merit further consideration. Yeah, that’s basically the whole field. Generally speaking, I think the presence of GAME ON DUDE means that no other horse is going to win on or near the pace. It’s either GAME ON DUDE or nobody up front. That removes FORT LARNED from consideration for sure and probably MUCHO MACHO MAN and TO HONOR AND SERVE as well since neither of those horses have won from more than 1.5 lengths off the pace. So, which closer do you like? Can you take a closer the way this Santa Anita track is playing? Well, at double the odds of RON THE GREEK, I’d take RICHARD’S KID over that one. But what about POOL PLAY at double the odds of RICHARD’S KID? Hmm. I don’t see any way GAME ON DUDE isn’t right there at the end, so I’m thinking keying him on top of and bottom of at least the closers and perhaps all of these horses is the play.
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