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| AWESOME FEATHER won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies two years ago and is undefeated in 10 lifetime starts. Can she make it 11 for 11 in this year's Ladies' Classic? |
There are six races to break down for Friday at the Breeders' Cup. After each horse, I'll list off their preferred BRIS running style (E=Early, E/P=Early/Presser, P=Presser, S=Sustained/Closer) and the morning line odds. From there, I'll discuss the pros and cons of each horse while explaining why I think that horse has a great shot/has no shot.
With so much to get to, let's just jump right in. Here goes ...
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint: Not a bad race to kick things off, although it did lose a bit of its luster to me when two speedy fillies who would have been among the favorites (Beholder and Kauai Katie) decided to go after the more lucrative Juvenile Fillies crown. This is the smallest field with just seven horses, and there’s a pretty good distribution of relatively experienced horses and highly touted newcomers. The morning line favorite is Merit Man at 8/5, and it appears warranted – he put up a 98 speed figure on this very track on Oct. 6 while running pace figures of 96-101-93, which almost exactly match the preferred shape of a winner: 96-103-93. Here’s a look at the field from the rail out:
1. HIGHTAIL (E3) 8/1 ML: The most experienced horse in the race is also the only maiden (horse yet to win a race). HIGHTAIL has run eight times and tried dirt sprints, polytrack routes, turf sprints and turf routes, but he hasn’t done better than finishing a neck back in one of the turf sprints. His trainer, D. Wayne Lukas, has made a habit of placing horses in over their heads recently, and nothing about HIGHTAIL makes me think he belongs here. He was seventh in the G2 Sanford and this field has roughly similar quality. His best running line has been 92-99-80 in a 6.5 furlong sprint at Saratoga on Aug. 4, and that doesn’t seem like enough to contend here.
2. CEILING KITTY (NA 0) 12/1 ML: Our first international candidate won a G2 stake at Ascot on June 12 but was off form upon returning to action in September, finish 4th and 7th in a pair of turf stakes. CEILING KITTY won three in a row from May to June, with the first of those wins coming on an artificial surface. But that was against what appeared to be a pretty weak field, and the competition in the turf stakes she finished well back in were more along the lines of what the rest of the field has faced. It would be pretty hard to talk yourself into taking anything close to 12/1 on this horse.
3. MERIT MAN (E/P 6) 8/5 ML: As mentioned, favoritism here seems well-deserved. The running line of 96-101-93 is exactly what I want to see. The apparently extremely slow work of 1:04.2 for 5 furlongs doesn’t seem concerning when you consider that his last work before winning his last race was 51.4 for 4 furlongs and that the work before that was 1:04.4 at 5 furlongs. Best of all, this horse doesn’t need the lead, which is pretty rare at this stage of most horses’ careers. In his first race, he sat 1.5 lengths off the pace before pulling clear late. In his last, he didn’t sit back as much as he dueled for the lead, but he disposed of his opposition and exploded down the stretch to win by 5.5 lengths. I truly see no chinks in the armor here.
4. SOUTH FLOYD (E 6) 6/1 ML: This is the horse that dueled with MERIT MAN in their last race, and he was summarily dispatched at the top of the stretch. The running line there was 96-102-81, so certainly not bad, and if something happens to MERIT MAN at the break you could potentially see SOUTH FLOYD getting away with some slower early fractions and having more in the tank late. But to me, I just think MERIT MAN is much better and I’d have to get a much better price on SOUTH FLOYD to warrant a bet.
5. SUPER NINETY NINE (E 4) 5/2 ML: This Bob Baffert-trainee sat right on a slow pace in his only start to date and won by 1.25 lengths, which doesn’t exactly inspire a lot of confidence in me. His running line was 90-94-99 in the 7 furlong race, and a running line like that where a horse picks up speed as he goes along typically means that the horse would be best suited to go longer. So I don’t view the cutback in distance to 6 furlongs here as a good thing. He did have a really sharp work of 59.4 seconds, 2/36 at the distance, on Oct. 27, which is the only thing that is stopping me from dismissing as a total underlay. As a son of PULPIT, he is probably the most well-bred horse in the field, but again, that A.P. INDY line is typically suited for going longer. I just don’t think this was the right spot for this horse and I wouldn’t take a chance at these low odds.
6. HAZARDOUS (P 4) 8/1 ML: This horse trounced a $25,000 claiming field by 13.25 lengths in his last race, and now these folks want to try the Breeders’ Cup? He has yet to race against non-claimers and will almost certainly find these waters too deep. His best running line is 83-91-92, which is pretty far and away the worst in the field.
7. SWEET SHIRLEY MAE (E/P 3) 4/1 ML: Here’s another horse that I don’t think should be running short here. She’s coming off a second-place finish in the G1 Spinaway at 7 furlongs, which was impressive only because of the way she fell behind by 15 lengths at the first call and then mowed down the rest of the field to still finish 2.5 lengths behind the winner. Again, I think a horse with a sustained run like that would be better suited to a longer race, and her pedigree also indicates that. She ran a 68-83-100 in that race, but the slow early pace number is mostly due to bad gate behavior. Her previous race, a 6 furlong try in the G3 Schuylerville at Saratoga in July, saw her post figs of 93-96-77 in an even fifth-place finish, well beaten by 8 lengths. I could see her getting a piece of the pie, but I’d be pretty surprised if she won.
OVERALL ANALYSIS: It’s not a whole lot of fun or creative to start the Breeders’ Cup by picking a nearly odds-on favorite, but I see no reason why MERIT MAN shouldn’t win this race. If I felt like playing an exacta or trifecta, I’d toss in CEILING KITTY, SUPER NINETY NINE and SWEET SHIRLEY MAE.
Breeders’ Cup Marathon: Ah, the Breeders’ Cup race that everyone loves to hate. This is pretty close to the only time all year that North American horses will run 1.75 miles, so there’s a whole lot of guessing going on in this race. European horses that run this sort of distance more often would seem to have an advantage, but they’re typically doing so on turf with slower early fractions than you’ll see in this dirt race. Historically, you want to toss the favorite in this race because they just don’t seem to win. Currently, that favorite is ATIGUN at a tepid 9/2 on the ML, with three other horses at 5/1 figuring to also vie for favoritism. In other words, there is no real favorite for a change, and in a 14-horse field, you could see some huge payouts in this one. For a change, this is at least an interesting betting race.
From the rail out:
1. ATIGUN (S 0) 9/2 ML: When I saw that ATIGUN was running in this spot, I said to myself, “Ah, cool, he ran well in the Belmont at 1.5 miles so surely he’ll be a good bet here.” And that thinking is surely why he’s the 9/2 ML favorite! He has run in a lot of very tough races over a route of ground, but he hasn’t run particularly well in them. After his third-place finish in the Belmont, he was sixth in the Jim Dandy, and then fourth in both the Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup. His best running line was probably his last in the Jockey Club with 78-105-99, and that’s not too far off the preferred 93-102-92 shape. In the Belmont at 1.5 miles, though, he still had the nice mid-race move, but flattened off more at the end with an 80-102-87 showing. In the end, sure, he could win based on class alone, but I’d prefer a better price than a name horse in a race like this.
2. FAME AND GLORY (NA 0) 5/1 ML: Euro shipper! What I like about this horse is that his best performances have come on firmer ground, which is kind of a rarity over in Europe. That gives me more hope that he’ll transfer his performance to dirt. In fact, his last two races on good going were both wins at 1.75 and 2 miles, and before that, he was second and first at 1.75 miles. Based on the race ratings, he hasn’t faced the competition ATIGUN has, but with demonstrated ability to win at this distance and the addition of Lasix, I think it would be impossible to throw this horse out.
3. BALLADRY (S 2) 30/1 ML: I guess a couple of distant third-place finishes to Classic contender RICHARD’S KID at 1.375 and 1.5 miles now qualifies you to run in the Breeders’ Cup marathon. His running line in the shorter of those two races was a not bad 81-94-85, but the longer was 77-92-74. And those came on polytrack, where he’s 2-0-2 in 8 lifetime starts, which is better than his dirt record of 3-1-3 in 15 lifetime starts and a surface on which he posted a 77-86-79 performance while finishing last of nine in his last race. He does take blinkers off which has been a positive move for this trainer, but I don’t see this horse having much of a chance here.
4. GRASSY (P 0) 30/1 ML: This is the first dirt race for GRASSY, so that’s a big question mark. On the plus side, this horse has shown real brilliance over a route of ground in the past. At 1.5 miles over the turf back in June 2011, he posted a 109 speed fig with pace figures of 91-108-98 while running second by a neck to MUSKETIER. His last race was at Santa Anita on the turf at 1.25 miles and he went off very slowly, falling 19 lengths behind at the second call before rallying to finish just 3.75 lengths back of the winner. You could do much worse than GRASSY at 30/1.
5. JAYCITO (E/P4) 6/1 ML: I guess I really don’t understand this placement at all from Bob Baffert. You hate to doubt the white-haired wizard, but he has only run 1.125 miles or longer TWICE in his career and hasn’t finished closer than 7 lengths either time. Someone said the other day that it turns out JAYCITO has really just always been overrated, and I think 6/1 is seriously overrating him here. Give me GRASSY and JAYCITO at the same odds and I’m taking GRASSY every time.
6. CALIDOSCOPIO (NA 0) 8/1 ML: Ships in from Argentina and is another that has demonstrated good ability at long distances. His last race was a win in a G2 there at 1.55 miles, and he won a G3 at the same distance last fall, too. This 9-year-old is obviously a warrior, but his strike rate of 7 wins in 24 dirt starts isn’t all that great for an invader, so I’m looking elsewhere.
7. NOT ABROAD (S 0) 5/1 ML: This horse ran a great race in his last effort, posting a 107 speed fig with pace figures of 91-117-91. 117 is truly a great middle move and you don’t see that often. If he runs back to that, you’d think he’d be golden … but that race was at 1.125 miles! In two efforts I can see at 1.5 miles, he has posted 88-99-82 and 67-96-84. As mentioned in the Juvenile Sprint section, you typically don’t see horses that want to go longer with lower late figures than middle figures. So I think to ask this horse to go an extra 1.5 furlongs off of his best (and non-winning) efforts at 1.5 miles is a huge task and not something you’d want to bet on at 5/1.
8. ROMP (E/P 5) 30/1 ML: This horse has won just 4 of 53 lifetime starts, and now they’re asking him to win a Breeders’ Cup race? This would be a real shocker.
9. ALMUDENA (NA 0) 30/1 ML: Another South American invader, this one seems much better on grass as he has won 50 percent of his lifetime starts on that surface versus just 20 percent of his starts on dirt. He did put in a strong work of 35.2 on the Santa Anita surface back on Sunday, so that’s definitely a positive, and he has run well off a layoff in the past. I wouldn’t entirely dismiss this one.
10. ELDAAFER (E 5) 8/1 ML: The 2010 Breeders’ Cup Marathon champion can’t be entirely dismissed here, but that was two years ago when he was a 5-year-old. He’s now 7, and the numbers aren’t quite what they once were. It’s hard to say that post position really matters that much in a 1.75-mile race, but it might be a negative for ELDAAFER as all of the true speed has drawn outside of him. He ran a pretty darn nice race at long odds in the Hawthorne Gold Cup last out, posting 90-102-81 while finishing 3rd to Classic participant POOL PLAY. But what ELDAAFER hasn’t shown at all this year is any sort of closing kick. Maybe it’s age, who knows, but he doesn’t seem to have the same burst he once did. Granted, the Marathon is more of a grind, but after finishing a combined 44 lengths back in his last three races at 1.5 miles or greater, I don’t think the old boy has it anymore.
11. COMMANDER (E 8) 15/1 ML: A winner of six straight races and a G3 at 1.375 miles his last out, you might think COMMANDER should have lower odds. And I think he probably will in the end. But he hasn’t faced much of anyone in those races up in Canada, and now he returns to California where he was little more than an average optional claimer as recently as February 2012. This is likely your true speed in the race, as he has been on the lead at the second call in each of his last four races. I do think he’ll handle the extra distance fine, and he has put in a couple of solid workouts at Santa Anita in two works there. They’re not quite as fast as what he was doing in Canada, though, so I’m a bit hesitant. Still, he’s one to keep in mind.
12. WORTH REPEATING (E/P 7) 5/1 ML: Seemingly the best favorite to take a shot with. He’s 2-for-2 lifetime on fast dirt tracks and is coming off an 87-95-105 win at 1.125 miles on dirt. His other dirt track win was at 1.5 miles with an 88-102-83 figure here at Santa Anita back in March 2011. His pedigree says the added distance should suit him well and he drew perfectly outside of COMMANDER, the horse he’ll likely want to track just off the lead. Impossible to leave off any tickets.
13. SENSE OF PURPOSE (NA 0) 15/1 ML: Euro! Had he come over last year, when he posted a string of three wins and one second from May to August, I might be intrigued. But he hasn’t done much of anything against weaker fields in three starts this year, never finishing better than fourth and finishing 10th, 25 lengths back, in his last try in September. He also hasn’t been good off of layoffs, so this would be a surprise.
14. JUNIPER PASS (E/P 7) 30/1 ML: He hasn’t been bad in a couple dirty tries in his last two races, but he also hasn’t won, posting one second and one third at tracks like Fairplex. Yikes. If you wanted to make a case for him, you would probably point to a 94-93-85 in April 2011 on the turf at 1.75 miles here at Santa Anita that won him a G2 race. There’s a chance that he’ll show up in the exotics, but I don’t see him winning this race. I don’t think the extra ground suits him all that well, so I’m leaving him off of my tickets.
OVERALL ANALYSIS: I find some redeeming qualities in five horses: FAME AND GLORY, GRASSY, ALMUDENA, COMMANDER and WORTH REPEATING. If I had to whittle that down to three horses, I’d go with WORTH REPEATING, GRASSY and FAME AND GLORY. It should be obviously that I think GRASSY is the best bet in the field, so I’ll have him to win and then keyed in various exotics. I generally don’t care much about jockeys, but having Garrett Gomez on board is a big plus, too, and it’s GRASSY’s third race off a layoff – a form pattern that has worked really well for him before. I’d be surprised if he goes off at more than 25/1 or even 20/1, actually, but I guess we’ll see. My biggest worry with WORTH REPEATING is that he and COMMANDER will go too fast up front, but if they don’t get stupid up front, they should have a tactical advantage on the rest of the field. Gun to my head, I’d take ALMUDENA over FAME AND GLORY. I think FAME AND GLORY is very live, but there are more questions with him than with ALMUDENA, and he’s likely to go off at a much lower price.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf: This is probably the least interesting race from my perspective – I just don’t think the horses in this race are all that good or all that interesting. It’s a full field of 14, though, so it’s worth trying to seek out a good betting opportunity. One thing I didn’t mention in the Juvenile Sprint write-up is that this is the first year that the Breeders’ Cup has banned Lasix from being used in the Juvenile races. Overseas horses never use Lasix, anyway, so you could probably make the argument that their form is a bit more “trustworthy” than that of horses who will be racing without Lasix for the first time. (Lasix is, essentially, a drug that stops the lungs of horses from bleeding during a race. So, by taking Lasix away, you might have a horse that really ran well in the past all of a sudden run terribly and have it be discovered that it was because he or she is a “bleeder.”) From the rail out:
1. KITTEN’S POINT (P 1) 12/1 ML: This is one of the few American-based horses that has not run on Lasix, so you might give her more of an upgrade than you would otherwise. A debut winner on the polytrack at Presque Isle Downs, KITTEN’S POINT ran in the G3 Jessamine and closed very well to finish second by a nose. She was probably compromised by a slow pace there and you could easily argue that the 60-59-104 paceline shouldn’t be held against her. That said, I think a mile is too short for this one. I expect her to run well but probably run out of real estate to get the win.
2. SUMMER OF FUN (E/P 5) 30/1 ML: This horse was the third-place finisher in the aforementioned Jessamine with a nearly identical line of 63-62-101. The pacelines aren’t quite as effective on turf since they can be so compromised by slow paces up front, but the gist is that KITTEN’S POINT and SUMMER OF FUN appear to be pretty similar in terms of ability. SUMMER OF FUN will probably be a bit closer, but also comes off Lasix for the first time. There doesn’t seem to be enough upside here to take as hot.
3. SKY LANTERN (NA 0) 3/1 ML: This Euro invader is hard to get past in this one. A winner of 3 of 5 lifetime starts, including a G1 in her last effort, she has been second in both of her other tries at the G3 level. All of those races were in the 6-7 furlong range, and her pedigree indicates she should only get better at a mile. Taking 3-1 on a horse that flew across the Atlantic and all of America is kind of scary, but she’s a deserving favorite here.
4. FLOTILLA (NA 0) 8/1 ML: This particular Euro, on the other hand, feels like a definite underlay. Her only win in four starts came against inferior competition. Her last race effort in a solid G1 was nothing to sniff at as she finished just 1.5 lengths back, but she also hasn’t run on anything but soft or heavy going. More questions, less success. And yeah, there’s still the same trip. I’ll pass on FLOTILLA.
5. SPRING VENTURE (E/P 5) 5/1 ML: This precocious young lady is undefeated in three lifetime starts, although the competition hasn’t exactly been stout. One win was on yielding turf and her most recent was polytrack, so here most applicable line is probably her maiden race in which she went 82-89-83, sat two lengths off the pace at the second call and rolled on to a 4.5 length win. She was purchased in June for $320,000, so expectations are certainly high for this one. That said, I just generally don’t think that SPRING VENTURE is good enough against some of these Euro invaders and the top U.S. horses.
6. WATSDACHANCES (S 0) 4/1 ML: Originally a Euro herself, she came over after this summer and has since went 2-for-2 in New York in a pair of stakes races at 1.0625 miles. Her last figure on yielding turf was 98-101-83 and she went 80-81-91 in the race before that on firm going. I also don’t think that’s good enough. INFANTA BRANCA, who is on the alternate entry list, is a shipper that finished ahead of WATSDACHANCES in the first race for both horses back in April. Yes, 2-year-olds develop and mature a lot throughout the year, but the fact that INFANTA BRANCA is up at 15/1 on the ML makes me feel pretty certain that WATSDACHANCES is a bit overrated and not necessarily likely to improve enough to beat some of the better Euros.
7. OSCAR PARTY (P 4) 20/1 ML: Another Jessamine veteran that ran a 62-61-102 in that race. In other words, all of the horses in the Jessamine loped along together in a pack, then gave it all they had in the stretch. It was basically run in the style of a European race. Unfortunately for all of the horses in the Jessamine, none were actually that good, and with just one win in four other starts and no speed figure better than 87, this would be a surprise.
8. TARA FROM THE CAPE (P 6) 12/1 ML: I’ve been looking through this field trying to figure out which horse will be on the lead, and I think this might be the one. In a 4.5 mile sprint on the polytrack at Woodbine, she led throughout. She was third by 1.5 lengths at the second call in a 7.5 furlong race at Delaware that she won, and then second by a head at the second call in a race ultimately won by WATSDACHANCES. Her last race, the G1 Alcibiades at 1.0625 miles on the poly, she was third by two lengths at the second call and went on to finish fourth, beaten four lengths. Her running line there was 98-108-74. The pace was very fast there and she probably suffered from being so close. Her 85-85 and 85-91 first and second call figures in her two turf starts are probably going to put her on the lead here, and her willingness to stay on last race after the blistering pace bodes well. She comes off Lasix but is a Pletcher runner, and Pletcher’s strike rate has always been very good with 2-year-olds.
9. NANCY O (P 3) 30/1 ML: Her 86-81-99 in a third-place effort in the G2 Natalma doesn’t do too much for me, but the notes there mentioned that she was squeezed back and then lacked a path. Her connections thought enough of her to toss her into the G1 Frizette, a race in which she summarily was eased. Her work out here was slow, but then again most of her works have been. This would be my real longshot pick.
10. WATERWAY RUN (NA 0) 10/1 ML: This Euro has won 3-of-4 starts, but the competition hasn’t been very good. The outside post doesn’t help. 15/1 seems more appropriate.
11. MOONWALK (E/P 5) 20/1 ML: Here’s your winner of the oft-mentioned Jessamine. She was a length off the lead and managed to hold on by a nose over KITTEN’S POINT. But she was 36-1 in that race for a reason, and one flukey slow-paced race doesn’t change that. She might actually be able to walk along up front once again, but I think the Euros would still easily mow her down in such a case.
12. THE GOLD CHEONGSAM (NA 0) 20/1 ML: I just really enjoy this horse’s name. THE GOLD CHEONGSAM. Say that out loud and you will smile. Anyway, this horse could do no better than 11th against competition similar to what he’ll see here, and he finished third in a claiming race in his last out. I would be shocked if this horse won.
13. FLASHY WAYS (P 4) 10/1 ML: Here’s one that could be interesting. 89-96-87 in winning over this very turf course back on Oct. 8, she’s now 2-for-2 in two starts. On the other hand, this is by far the cheapest horse in the field, purchased for just $3,500 last October. Horses come from rags to riches all the time – I’LL HAVE ANOTHER was purchased for just $35,000 – but $3,500 is crazy cheap. I wouldn’t totally dismiss her but she steps up in class here and I’m not sure she’ll be good enough to take a shot at 10/1.
14. SUSTAINED (P 1) 12/1 ML: Her last race figs of 101-103 are misleading since she was 4.5 lengths off of what was a blistering pace that day on yielding turf, but the fact that she stayed on to only finish 2.25 lengths back of WATSDACHANCES is very positive. She won her one other turf start to date with an even 80-80-78 bid. She’s also the opposite of FLASHY WAYS in that she was sold for $300,000 last fall. Now, there are myriad stories of horses who sold for millions that never turned out to be squat and nearly as many that sold for nothing and became champions, but breeding typically plays a role in stakes success and SUSTAINED has it. If there’s a less blistering pace and no bumping in this race (which she had to deal with in her last race), who’s to say she can’t get first run on WATSDACHANCES and have more left in the tank in a shorter race to turn the tables? In other words, I’d rather bet SUSTAINED at 12/1 than WATSDACHANCES at 4/1.
OVERALL ANALYSIS: I think SKY LANTERN is definitely the horse to beat, and I think most of the other favorites are fraudulent. TARA OF THE CAPE is the horse I’m most excited about at her current odds. SUSTAINED seems OK, but I’d much rather have TARA OF THE CAPE at the same odds. NANCY O could be worth a shot in the dark if she drifts up at all.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies: Now we’re talking! After three races full of questionable horses, we have some legit superstars of tomorrow in this one. The complexion of this race changed dramatically earlier this week when BEHOLDER and KAUAI KATIE opted for this race instead of taking on the boys in the sprint. There were initially a couple speed horses here that you thought might hook up, but now, there are 4-5 depending on your take. The pace is likely to get HOT and a horse that can lay back a bit might have a huge edge.
1. BEHOLDER (E 8) 5/2 ML: She freaked in her last race, popping off a 110 speed figure while destroying an allowance field by 11 lengths. One race earlier, she nearly topped EXECUTIVEPRIVILEGE before getting nipped at the wire in a 7 furlong race. Now, she tackles 1.0625 miles. I don’t see her carrying her speed that distance. She has slowed down late in all of her races at shorter distances, and has been beaten by EXECUTIVEPRIVILEGE twice, and needs to be on the lead. Lots of problems to take at 5/2, regardless of how freaky she might actually be.
2. EXECUTIVEPRIVILEGE (E/P 8) 2/1 ML: She has 5 wins in 5 starts, and she’s coming off a dominant 6.25 length win in her first try on real dirt here at Santa Anita. Unfortunately, she was setting a slow pace in that one, so that’s not all that applicable in handicapping how she might do in this race. She has been fourth, third, fourth and fifth in all at the second call of her other starts, though, which is exactly what I want to see.
3. SPRING IN THE AIR (P 3) 15/1 ML: I feel even better about the race shape for this horse. Seventh and 11th at the second call of her last two races, she rallied to win at this very distance and finish a close second at a mile on yielding turf. The biggest concern is that she has yet to run on real dirt, but seeing as how nasty things are likely to get at the front, I like how things set up for this longer shot.
4. RENEE’S QUEEN (E 6) 30/1 ML: She also hasn’t run on real dirt, and she also hasn’t shown any propensity for passing horses and has been twice well-beaten by EXECUTIVE PRIVILEGE. Doesn’t seem to have much of a chance here.
5. DREAMING OF JULIA (E 8) 5/2 ML: I like this one better than BEHOLDER because she has raced at a route and gotten into a dogfight and won despite it. The G1 Frizette pace figures were 92-103-84 and she was on the lead all the way, fighting to the wire to prevail by a head at a mile. I don’t think distance should be any problem for her and only wonder if things might get too hot even for her.
6. ALMOST AN ANGEL (E 3) 30/1 ML: Has one win and one second from five tries. In tries against G2 and G1 competition, she has finished 7th and 6th, respectively. She has also never run on dirt. Confusing spot for this one. No chance.
7. BROKEN SPELL (P 3) 20/1 ML: This horse finished just a length back of SPRING IN THE AIR in the G1 Alcibiades and only a neck back of WATSDACHANCES in his prior race. The big worry for me is that while SPRING IN THE AIR is a question of sorts on the dirt, BROKEN SPELL has run on it twice (granted, they were his first two starts) and been terrible both times. I’m not ruling him out as getting a piece in exotics, but I can’t see him stepping up out of nowhere to win this one.
8. KAUAI KATIE (E/P 8) 3/1 ML: Did I mention the pace is going to be hot? Goodness. This horse has been on top at the second call in all of her races and there’s no reason to think she’ll be anywhere else in this one, especially breaking from an outside post. Her and BEHOLDER from the rail pretty much are going to fly to that first turn … and then DREAMING OF JULIA probably won’t want to get pinned between those two, so man … :21 flat for the first quarter, anyone? I would definitely take KAUAI KATIE over BEHOLDER, though, as both her pedigree and speed figures tell me she wouldn’t have quite the same problem with more ground. Also, they paid $490,000 for this horse in February. Just saying – you don’t usually do that for *just* a sprinter. She went 94-99-93 in her last in the Matron, never being asked while winning by 7.5 lengths. Before that, she went 95-99-89 and 97-105-99, winning by 2.75 and 12 lengths with those two efforts. Scary.
OVERALL ANALYSIS: It seems kind of silly to throw out the horse that I believe is quite possibly the most talented in the race, but I’m doing with that with BEHOLDER. I think DREAMING OF JULIA is a better play than KAUAI KATIE at similar odds, but if I can get closer to 5/1 on KAUAI KATIE, then I might change my tune. All of that said, it should be obvious that I’m looking for a horse that can take advantage of the likely meltdown up top. EXECUTIVEPRIVILEGE might be able to do that, but she also might be too close to it herself. The only horse I feel good about truly rallying into a pace and winning is SPRING IN THE AIR. My guess is that others will also see that and she’ll get bet down some, but I’d still take 10/1 or better. This should be a fun race and we might just see something truly breathtaking if one of these speedballs gets brave on the front end.
Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf: This race generally reminds me of the Juvenile Fillies Turf in that I can’t figure out where the pace is going to come from. I’m excited about the caliber of horses – the two Euros, THE FUGUE and RIDASIYNA, in particular – but it’s going to be a puzzle to figure out who’s coming from where when all of these horses seemingly have the same running styles. From the rail out:
1. STAR BILLING (P 3) 30/1 ML: She ran on turf once this year – an 8th-place finish in an ungraded stake back in June. No chance.
2. ZAGORA (P 4) 8/1 ML: In a 1.25-mile race in her last out, she was caught in the shadow of the wire by NAHRAIN. That was yielding going, so you might say that she wouldn’t have slowed down like that on firm turf. And, indeed, she has won 4 of her last 7 starts on firm turf. There has been some talk that 1.25 miles is too far for her, but she has never finished out of the money in four starts at the distance and while I don’t love her here, don’t see how you could dismiss her.
3. STORMY LUCY (S 2) 30/1: Has run OK since jumping from allowance races to graded competition this year, but the most applicable paceline would seem to be the slowly paced American Oaks at 1.25 miles back on July 12. She finished 5th, well beaten by LADY OF SHAMROCK. If STORMY LUCY somehow got a pace to run into I could see her finishing up well for a piece, but I don’t see the pace here.
4. THE FUGUE (NA 0) 7/2: Won a G1 race in her only start at 1.25 miles this year and won another at 1.3125, so you could probably safely say this is her best distance. In her last race, another G1 at 1.5 miles, she was just nipped at the wire. She probably deserves favoritism and merits a bet, but the concern I do have is that her first performance off the layoff this May was a fourth-place showing in which she was 10 lengths back of the winner. On the other hand, that was a layoff of seven months and this has been two, and that was only her second race.
6. LADY OF SHAMROCK (S 0) 12/1 ML: Won this year’s edition of the American Oaks at 1.25 miles and has won four of her last five starts (only loss coming by a nose), so you’d dismiss her at your own peril. Her speed figures aren’t great and she’s coming off a layoff, but she’s done well off the layoff before. The pace typically impacts closers, but she’s done well closing into races both fast and slow. She might lack a little bit of brilliance, but she’s a rock solid performer.
7. UP (E/P 4) 12/1 ML: This is probably the only other shot at a pacemaker. UP ran in the Beverly D at Arlington in August, posting 91-100-88 pace figures while sitting second before briefly taking the lead at the top of the stretch and ultimately faltering to finish sixth. She did win her last try at 1.25 miles on September 9 in Ireland, as well. This will be his second trip across the Atlantic and his second time on Lasix. You could probably argue that having one trip “under his belt” is meaningful, and you could definitely argue that second time Lasix is beneficial. Again, though, she was defeated by three lengths by MARKETING MIX in the Beverly D, and now she’s going across the country to MARKETING MIX’s home turf. I don’t think she’ll win, but if NEREID doesn’t go with her … I’d have a hard time leaving her off my Pick 4 ticket.
8. NAHRAIN (P 2) 6/1 ML: I bet this horse in last year’s Breeders’ Cup, and now I’m basically going to guarantee that she wins this year when I explain why I’m not taking her this time. She had won four straight races last year and looked on top of her game before getting beaten at odds of 3-1. This year, she finished ninth in her first race, then was beaten by 8 lengths by THE FUGUE and then was beaten by UP by 1.5 lengths. Her closing kick to nip ZAGORA was nice, but again, that was yielding turf and it doesn’t come close to excusing her other flaws this year when she’s 6/1 on the ML.
9. MARKETING MIX (P 2) 9/2 ML: Has won 7 of her last 10 starts and was compromised by traffic in one of the losses. Was beaten by a head in the Beverly D in August, but bounced back to win at 1.25 miles over NEREID and STORMY LUCY. The biggest concern is that in her three toughest races in the last year – the Beverly D, the Distaff Mile, and the Queen Elizabeth last fall, she has not won. She has been close, but not quite there. At 9/2 I can still think about forgiving that, but at much lower I wouldn’t.
10. RIDASIYNA (NA 0) 4/1 ML: Has won 4 of 5 starts on ground ranging from heavy to good. It’s hard to find many problems with this horse, but if you wanted to grasp at stratws you would say that his try at 1.25 miles on good ground resulted in his only 5th-place finish. So, basically, you have to ask yourself if even firmer ground would be a detriment to this horse, because Santa Anita will surely be pretty firm. In other words, I prefer THE FUGUE at nearly the same odds, but I could certainly see RIDASIYNA being much the best and going on to be a great horse.
11. I’M A DREAMER (P 1) 8/1: After topping MARKETING MIX for the Beverly D, I’M A DREAMER certainly didn’t embarrass herself in the Flower Bowl’s blanket finish where she wound up fourth. I could go either way on this horse because her two non-winning efforts in the U.S. were both on yielding turf. Maybe the Lasix really does help her. She has won two efforts at 1.1875 miles on good turf since last May, and she has consistently faced the best competition of any horse in the field.
12. IN LINGERIE (P 3) 12/1: She has never raced on the grass but has been a polytrack freak (3 for 3 on the surface) and also worked like a champion going 46.6 over the Santa Anita turf course on Oct. 27. Her one try at 1.25 miles was on dirt and resulted in a 9-length trouncing from QUESTING, but it’s hard to hold that against her. She has typically sat a couple lengths off the pace and then run by in the stretch, and therein lies half of the reason that I’m willing to pass on her: In the races where the leader has set a slower than average pace, she has been no match. And since, for the last time, I don’t see much pace in this race at all, that and the first time on grass is too much to ask.
OVERALL ANALYSIS: *****UPDATE: NEREID scratched after I had written about this race, leaving UP as perhaps the lone speed. Upgrade UP to a stronger play.***** This is a TOUGH race. If all on-track reports about THE FUGUE are good, though, she’s my clear pick. I could certainly see a number of others winning this, but I think THE FUGUE would win 1 of 3 runnings or thereabouts, so there’s an overlay at 7/2. Beyond that, I like UP at 12/1 and NEREID at 15/1 as potential frontrunning upsetters. MARKETING MIX could never be ignored in exotics and multi-race bets, but I don’t think there’s enough value at 9/2. Ditto for I’M A DREAMER at 8/1. I’ve gone back and forth on LADY OF SHAMROCK but decided that the winner of this race will need to be too brilliant for both her at 12/1 and ZAGORA at 8/1.
Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic: From part 1 of my preview: “This edition of the Ladies' Classic is LOADED … you have two undefeated horses that were 2-year-old champions (MY MISS AURELIA last year and AWESOME FEATHER in 2010) ... and they won't even be the favorites. That honor falls to ROYAL DELTA, who won the Ladies' Classic last year and has won three of her four last starts. And then you have LOVE AND PRIDE, the only horse to beat ROYAL DELTA in the last six months, and QUESTING, a horse that seems to have more pure talent and speed than any of the others and was a heavy favorite over MY MISS AURELIA in her last race. And then there's GRACE HALL, a horse that was favored over QUESTING just two months ago! And while neither of the final two have faced the same competition all of the above have, CLASS INCLUDED has 10 wins and six second-place finishes from 16 starts, while INCLUDE ME OUT is the locally-based horse that has won 4 of her last 6. Can you tell I'm excited about this one?” Figuring this race out is incredibly interesting, so let’s just start from the rail out:
1. GRACE HALL (E/P 6) 10/1: Finished second to MY MISS AURELIA in last year’s Juvenile Fillies. Opened up the year with a shocking defeat to YARA, and then finished third in the Kentucky Oaks after winning the Gulfstream Oaks. Dominated a pretty weak field in the Delaware Oaks before finishing fifth, 31 lengths back of QUESTING in the Alabama. Her last race was a pretty easy win at Hoosier Park in the Indiana Oaks. All in all, the theme here is that while she is 5 for 8 lifetime on a fast track, she hasn’t actually beaten any of these top tier females. She also hasn’t proven that she can truly pass horses from further back in the back since her G1 win in the Spinaway last September. She’s a surprisingly easy toss for me.
2. MY MISS AURELIA (E/P 6) 4/1: Last year’s undefeated two-year-old champion took a nine-month break after winning the Juvenile Fillies last fall. She came back in a pretty easy stakes race at Saratoga at 6.5 furlongs and won as a 1-4 favorite by three lengths, which was impressive only because she did so after breaking poorly and trailing the entire field early. More impressive, on its face at least, was her win over QUESTING in the G1 Cotillion at Parx on Sept. 22. The race was at 1.0625 miles and MY MISS AURELIA had to fight against QUESTING tooth and nail to pull out the win. I’m really not sure what to make of that race, though. The fractions were extremely slow, and some people will hold that against QUESTING for not maintaining the lead. Others say that the surface was extremely tiring for frontrunners and actually give QUESTING more credit for staying on so strongly. As for me, I take it at face value because MY MISS AURELIA was basically right there with QUESTING the whole way. She was 2.5 lengths back at the first call but had moved up to just .5 lengths back at the second call, so the playing field was even as far as I’m concerned. The big difference was the seven extra pounds QUESTING was carrying. Weight is probably generally overrated when we’re talking about thousand-plus pound animals, but when the margin of victory is a head, most would make the argument that even weights – which you get here in the Breeders’ Cup – would put QUESTING ahead. I have to say that I’m in agreement. Finally, the speed figs just aren’t on par with the rest of the major contenders. WE may not have gotten to the bottom of MY MISS AURELIA yet, and we might see something special if we do, but for now, 4/1 on a horse that hasn’t gone this far or faced this many great horses is too low of a price to accept.
3. CLASS INCLUDED (P 7) 30/1: Yeah, 10 wins and 6 seconds in 16 starts. But she hasn’t faced anything close to this field of fillies and mares. Her best race was probably two races ago, when she posted a 92-102-86. Honestly, that’s not THAT far from what this will take, but she’d need to take yet another step forward to do it. She also wants to be pretty close to the pace and she will likely wilt when she looks some of these other uber-classy horses in the eyes.
4. QUESTING (E 8) 4/1: This year’s wonder horse. Started her career with some decent showings in England on the turf, then came over for the Juvenile Fillies and ran fifth, well-beaten by MY MISS AURELIA and GRACE HALL. After two non-effectual starts in optional claimers on the turf, they switched her back to the dirt and she started a streak of four straight 100+ BRIS speed figure performances. After a 93-101-109 in an optional claimer at a mile, she moved to 1.125 miles in the Coaching Club Oaks and posted a 91-99-101 in a four-length win. Then came the Alabama, where she got away with some pretty soft fractions and won by nine lengths with a 88-102-100 performance. Finally, there was that weird Cotillion race that I’ve already discussed. Here’s the thing for me with QUESTING: She hasn’t been pushed on the lead yet. All of those races have been slower than the norm at both the first and second calls. That won’t happen in this race. She will be pushed by at least one, if not two or even three horses. Therefore, at 4/1, it’s impossible for me to bet her even if the eye test tells me she may destroy this field.
5. AWESOME FEATHER (E/P 7) 3/1: A winner of 10 races in 10 starts, this undefeated monster figures to be pressing the pace. Her last race was 93-111-98 at a mile, and before that, she posted 97-109-95 last January and 83-101-99 at 1.125 miles last November, a race in which she beat LOVE AND PRIDE by 5.5 lengths. This race will be her second off the layoff, a formula that worked well for her in 2012 winning the Juvenile Fillies. She hasn’t strung two races together since then, unfortunately. The only concern I have with AWESOME FEATHER is that pace question. She has never been further back than 2.5 lengths in any of her races. I’m not sure the winner in this race will want to be that close early, but I think she’s brilliant enough to overcome whatever comes her way. There’s just one horse that I really think has a good shot of beating her.
6. ROYAL DELTA (E/P 6) 9/5: Three wins and one second-place finish this summer have cemented this defending Ladies’ Classic champion as the horse to beat. Her rousing eight-length triumph in the Fleur de Lis was exceeded only by her nine-length runaway performance last-out in the Beldame. Probably her best feature in this race is that she has shown the ability to lay back early and make a sustained run, which again, is crucial so that she stays off the pace. She actually has been more keen to go on lately, but I think we’ll see her lay a little bit further back in this one – say three to four lengths off – and come with that patented run. Her 92-113-92 effort in the Beldame was exactly what you would want to see. She was upset by LOVE AND PRIDE back on Aug. 26, but that race had no pace and that will not happen again. It’s pretty much her race to lose.
7. INCLUDE ME OUT (P 3) 15/1: OK, so I’m on the two favorites? That’s not very exciting! INCLUDE ME OUT is the one true “value” play that I can endorse here, and it’s all because of that torrid pace we’re likely to see. The faster they go up front, the better it is for INCLUDE ME OUT. Her average position at the second call is 4.2, and she’s typically about 3-4 lengths back. LOVE AND PRIDE got away with a nearly 25-second fraction in their last race on the front end, and INCLUDE ME OUT had no chance against that. In this race, though, assuming a half-mile goes in around :46, INCLUDE ME OUT has a solid shot to win and a really good shot to hit the board. She has won three of six starts at Santa Anita and has one win and one second at the distance.
8. LOVE AND PRIDE (E 8) 8/1: Here’s your other main pace factor to run anyone near the pace into the ground. She’s a really easy toss when you take a look at her results in any race that has a pace that’s even slightly faster than typical: she hasn’t won. She’s a stone cold need the lead type that has been in first at the first call in 8 of her last 10 races (and only a combined .75 lengths back in second in the other two) and in first at the second call in 9 of her last 10 (and just a head back in the other). With an honest pace in the Delaware, she was beaten by ROYAL DELTA by 9.5 lengths. With a not honest pace in the Personal Ensign, she beat ROYAL DELTA by half a length. There will be an honest pace here. You do the math.
OVERALL ANALYSIS: Despite the quality of the field, this race has a lot of clarity to me. I’ll likely place win bets on AWESOME FEATHER and ROYAL DELTA and then key those two in exactas with INCLUDE ME OUT to try to get a bit of a price. What makes this race so great is that there’s a lot of room for strong feelings about almost the entire field. Races with a field full of great horses are great betting races because everyone has a conviction and everyone puts their money where their mouth is. Pretty much no matter which horse wins, we’re all going to say, “I can’t believe I got X-1 on THAT superhorse!”
That's it for Day 1. In case you were wondering, that was more than 14 pages of text and and nearly 9,000 words. Hope it turns out to be worth something.
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