The 2012 Wothism Preakness Preview

Let's get a few things from the Derby out of the way first:

CREATIVE CAUSE beat BODEMEISTER in the San
Felipe Stakes on March 10. Can he run back to that
effort in the Preakness? I'm banking on it!

1. I was simply off the mark with HANSEN in the Kentucky Derby. Sometimes, when everyone says one thing ... they're right. I like to seek out the contrarian viewpoint more often than not, and this time I played the part of contrarian ... and it hurt. HANSEN's incredible washing out certainly didn't help matters (for non super-fans, washing out = he got really hot and sweaty before the race). I also hated how he was ridden, as his jockey strangled him early in an attempt to rate. When a horse wants to go, you have to let him go. You can try to hold him back a bit, but if he fights it, you simply have to let go. I have never seen a horse fight his jockey early like HANSEN did and win late. Sure, if he sprints out and battles BODEMEISTER, he probably doesn't have a chance, either ... but it was just terrible all around. 

2. "You'd be a fool to bet I'LL HAVE ANOTHER." Yes, that's what I said about the eventual Derby winner. The lesson I'm taking away from this Kentucky Derby is that I allowed my own personal prejudices to get in the way of solid handicapping. I even said that I'LL HAVE ANOTHER has an impressive list of past performances, but I ignored that mostly because I had a soft spot for CREATIVE CAUSE. There's no way of getting past the fact that I'LL HAVE ANOTHER outran CREATIVE CAUSE in the Santa Anita Derby, and he did so again in the Kentucky Derby. Now, granted — I'LL HAVE ANOTHER had a perfect trip in the Kentucky Derby while CREATIVE CAUSE got jostled a bit and ran the furthest of any horse — but even taking away that ground loss, I'LL HAVE ANOTHER would have beat CREATIVE CAUSE once again. All of that said, my real knocks on I'LL HAVE ANOTHER were his failure to do anything but win from second and his post. Well, he proved to me that rating in second is pretty much as good as rating in fourth or fifth, and that I'd be stupid to ever rule out a horse based on his post position again.

3. The stream of respected horse racing analysts who are heralding BODEMEISTER's near-miss in the Kentucky Derby as the stuff of legends has not been a slow trickle. It has been a virtual deluge. Granted, BODEMEISTER ran a faster 3/4 mile than almost every horse in the Kentucky Derby has in the past half-century. Granted, I got butterflies thinking he might be the super horse to save racing when he spurted away at the top of the stretch. But he ran his last two furlongs in 26 SECONDS. He was crawling to the finish. It turns out that more of these horses than we thought have distance troubles. I also don't think TRINNIBERG really was pushing BODEMEISTER that hard. There has been a big hub bub about whether Mike Smith rode BODEMEISTER the right way or completely wrong, but I think that's just how BODEMEISTER wants and needs to run. He's going to go as fast as he can for as far as he can ... and I think, more than likely, that's 9 furlongs. The Derby is 10 furlongs, the Preakness is 9.5 furlongs. Hmm ...

Anyway, on to the Preakness! The first thing you need to know about this year's Preakness is that we have a lot of new shooters. What that means is that, of the likely 12 runners, seven of them did not run in the Kentucky Derby. While you might think that this means they're fresh (it does), it also means they're not as good as almost any of the Derby horses (as they didn't have enough graded earnings to make the Derby field). 


You can't totally discount the chance of one of these horses winning, but it's pretty unlikely based both on history and talent.


The second thing you need to know is that the Black Eyed Susan, the official drink of the Preakness, is one hell of a drink. It destroys the mint julep in every conceivable way. 

• 2 parts bourbon
• 1 part vodka citrus
• 3 parts sweet & sour mix
• 1 part (really, just fill up the rest of the glass) orange juice

This drink is a screwdriver on steroids. You will not regret giving it a shot on Saturday.


Anyway, logic and history tell us the winner will be one of these six horses:


I'LL HAVE ANOTHER (1st in the Derby)

BODEMEISTER (2nd)

WENT THE DAY WELL (4th)

CREATIVE CAUSE (5th) 

DADDY NOSE BEST (10th)

OPTIMIZER (11th)

The new shooters are:

TEETH OF THE DOG

TIGER WALK

COZZETTI

PRETENSION

ZETTERHOLM

Below, I'll breakdown the horses into two groups: POSSIBILITIES, which I'll define as horses I think have either a shot at winning or are likely to finish in the top four for superfecta purposes, and TOSSES, which I'll define as horses I really don't think have a chance of winning at all and likely won't even finish in the top four.

As always, after each horse’s name in parentheses will be the horse’s post number (1-20 with 1 on the rail and 20 the widest on the track), the morning line (set by Mike Battaglia, who Churchill Downs asks to create his best guesses at the odds on each horse) and the exchange betting line (taken from thegreek.com and likely the best representation of what we’ll see on Saturday).  

POSSIBILITIES:

1. BODEMEISTER (PP #7, 9-5 ML, 1.65-1 EB): If you don't think he's too worn out from the past two huge races that he ran, it's almost impossible to think he'll get beat. With a complete lack of early speed (quite the opposite from the Derby), he should be able to get an easy early lead and roll to a relatively easy victory. Apart from I'LL HAVE ANOTHER, who was eight lengths off of BODEMEISTER at the first call in the Kentucky Derby, TEETH OF THE DOG is the only horse to display anything resembling front-running ability ... and he did that in a maiden race with an extremely slow pace. If BODEMEISTER is anything even close to what he was in the Derby, he wins this race by a mile. The notion that he'll be worn out by two such big races in the past 35 days or so might be a valid one, but the other side of the coin is that he basically paired the two top figures of his career ... and horses like that typically run even bigger.  So ... it's really hard to get past BODEMEISTER, even at what are likely to be very low odds. I honestly think if he's at his best, he wins against this field 60% of the time. Even a bit off his best, I have to think that he wins 40% of the time ... which means that even at odds as low as 2-1, he's a good bet. Below that, though — which people are starting to believe is likely — and you have to look elsewhere.

2. I'LL HAVE ANOTHER (PP #9, 2-1 ML, 2.15-1 EB): He's the only horse in the field that has showed any sort of capability to potentially stick with a horse like BODEMEISTER, and that really hurts his chances of winning. Typically, history has shown that the best horse wins the Preakness. Too many weird things always happen in the Derby for it to be the truest test, but the Preakness usually plays pretty true to form. What I mean is that while I would take I'LL HAVE ANOTHER over any other horse in this field if I had a gun to my head, it's really pretty hard to see him pressing BODEMEISTER and running by in the stretch. If he does and we have a potential Triple Crown on the line at Belmont on June 9, I'll be thrilled … albeit a bit more poor after betting against him AGAIN in this race. 

3. CREATIVE CAUSE (PP #6, 6-1 ML, 7.15-1 EB): Yeah, I'll go back to the well again here. As stated earlier, he ran much further than any other horse in the Derby. It's really, really hard for me to see any horse other than BODEMEISTER or CREATIVE CAUSE winning this race. If I'LL HAVE ANOTHER lets BODEMEISTER go with an easy early lead, it's all over — BODEMEISTER wins with relative ease. But if I'LL HAVE ANOTHER presses BODEMEISTER into another hot pace, then CREATIVE CAUSE runs by both of them from a perfect stalking position in the stretch. That's that. What worries me with CREATIVE CAUSE is a truly stupid traveling schedule. He was flown back to California from Kentucky, then from California out to Maryland. The generally accepted maxim is that flying horses like that takes a good bit out of them, so the worry here is that he's just going to be too fatigued. Still, I think he's just about the only horse who can beat BODEMEISTER (he did it two starts back in the San Felipe Stakes).

4. TEETH OF THE DOG (PP #2, 15-1 ML, 15.5-1 EB): If you're looking for a horse that just might shock the world, this is probably your guy. In just four career races, he has improved each time. He's had about 40 days to freshen since a pretty impressive effort in the Wood (a third-place finish three lengths back of GEMOLOGIST), a race in which he put up a 98 speed figure. If he improves off of that break and effort, it wouldn't be too unreasonable to see him move up into the low to mid-100s ... which might put him right there. He showed enough early speed in that race to stick reasonably close to a decent pace, and as mentioned earlier, he did wire that maiden field two starts back. In fact, if there's one horse who might mess up BODEMEISTER's plan on the front end, it's probably this guy. I'm banking, however, that he can sit back in the 3rd or 4th spot and make a run at BODEMEISTER and I'LL HAVE ANOTHER late. My biggest worry is that his trainer is playing this race off like he didn't even necessarily want to run him in this spot ... but trainers are strange characters and sometimes say what owners want them to say. 

5. WENT THE DAY WELL (PP #5, 6-1, 5.5-1 EB): Looking back on the Kentucky Derby, it has become fashionable to say that WENT THE DAY WELL would have won the race if not for a nightmare trip. He finished a fast-closing fourth, just 2.5 lengths back of the winner after being 17th and 18 lengths back at the first call. His sustained move was extremely impressive. Before the Derby, I said that I didn't see WENT THE DAY WELL moving forward off his best effort, but he just paired it up at 105-103. Can he move forward yet again? I'll say no, once again due to the pace setup. His late pace has been tremendous in all of his races on dirt, but I don't think the horses up front will be tired enough to make that matter. If you think back to last year, you'll remember that ANIMAL KINGDOM couldn't catch SHACKLEFORD in the stretch. Pimlico absolutely favors speed, and this guy doesn't have it. Exotics? Sure!

6. TIGER WALK (PP #1, 30-1 ML, 35.5-1 EB): This colt also ran solidly enough in the Wood, running fourth. He has had the same break as TEETH OF THE DOG, so he might also have the advantage of freshness. The difference is that this guy hasn't shown enough early pace on dirt for me to believe that he can stick close enough to catch BODEMEISTER or I'LL HAVE ANOTHER. That said, I could see using him in exotics.

TOTAL THROWOUTS:

7. DADDY NOSE BEST (PP #8, 15-1 ML, 14.5-1 EB): I was one of the seemingly few people who didn't think highly of him (I actually called it laughable that others thought he might win) in the Derby, and I was at least right on that one as he finished a very even 10th — he was never closer than 7th and never worse than 10th. He just didn't move at all. And that was in a Derby that should have set up well for his preferred closing style. So who could honestly expect him to close into what will almost assuredly be a slow pace? Not a chance.

8. ZETTERHOLM (PP #4, 30-1 ML, 24.5-1 EB): He hasn't faced any competition (only New York breds) and has shown no early speed. The things I can give him credit for are: 1) Winning 3/4 starts in 2012 and finishing second in the other. 2) Pairing 94-94 in his past two starts. 3) Having an interesting pedigree with some Argentinian bloodlines. There's a reason he has been bet down some on the exchange betting line. Still, he hasn't run longer than a mile, and it's really tough to see him beating, or even competing, with these. 

9. PRETENSION (PP #3, 30-1 ML, 35.5-1 EB): This horse ran 5th to HANSEN in the Gotham and 9th in the ILLINOIS DERBY. He did win a bottom barrel stakes race at Pimlico on Derby Day, but I'll jump off a building if he wins the Preakness. (NOTE: I will not really jump off a building.)

10. COZZETTI (PP #11, 30-1 ML, 38.5-1 EB): In seven races, he has won once and finished third once. His best speed figure is 94. He'd be a real shocker.

11. OPTIMIZER (PP #10, 30-1 ML, 35.5-1 EB): I had OPTIMIZER ranked dead-last in 20th for the Derby, so do you really think his extremely even 11th place finish in that race changed my mind? I have NO FREAKING CLUE why he's running back here. I'll say it again: he sucks.

OK, fine: Other than DADDY NOSE BEST, I'm barely taking a stand with anything. But that's kind of the nature of the Preakness — it really plays to true horse skill, and I truly think the top five (TIGER WALK probably doesn't belong as a true win threat, but I'd take him at 30-1 over DADDY NOSE BEST at 15-1) are leaps and bounds ahead of hte rest of the field. 

So how will this race really play out?

There's no doubt that BODEMEISTER will get the lead. I'LL HAVE ANOTHER will absolutely apply at least token pressure as trainer Doug O'Neill is too good to let BODEMEISTER wire this field with ease. 

CREATIVE CAUSE will also be up close, with TEETH OF THE DOG not far back. I do believe that WENT THE DAY WELL won't be too far back, either, as trainer Graham Motion is no fool and will know darn well his horse can't try to rally from well back like ANIMAL KINGDOM did unsuccessfully last year. 

There's a term for races that really don't see horses pass each other: MERRY GO-ROUND. That's really by and large what I, and most others, expect this race to be. As they hit the top of the stretch, the crowd is going to roar as I'LL HAVE ANOTHER collars BODEMEISTER and CREATIVE CAUSE looms large in behind them. 

If CREATIVE CAUSE gets the perfect trip I think he might, I think he can catch these two in mid-stretch. Every once in a while you see a truly tight finish, and I could see these three horses hitting the wire noses apart. 

I don't think these three horses up front will slow down enough for WENT THE DAY WELL to make up the necessary ground, but if the pace gets closer to :46 than :47 or even :48, I'd say he has a pretty darn good chance ... but even then, I don't think he gets by CREATIVE CAUSE.

I see CREATIVE CAUSE at 7-1 or so as a darn good bet once again. He has beaten BODEMEISTER (in the San Felipe Stakes while carrying five more pounds), so there's no reason he can't run back to that effort. I'LL HAVE ANOTHER has beaten him twice in a row, but once was by a nose and once was largely a result of disparate trips. If there's a value win bet in the Preakness, it's CREATIVE CAUSE.

I'd truly be quite surprised if TIGER WALK or TEETH OF THE DOG actually won this dang thing, but they're fresh and talented horses taking on potentially weary horses here. I don't feel as comfortable tossing them as I do the others.

In short, here's how I'll play the race:

• $36 Dime super box: 1/2/5/6/7/9 (TIGER WALK/TEETH OF THE DOG/WENT THE DAY WELL/CREATIVE CAUSE/BODEMEISTER/I'LL HAVE ANOTHER

• $20 Win bet: 6 - CREATIVE CAUSE

I just really hope it's I'LL HAVE ANOTHER or CREATIVE CAUSE. If I don't get to see CREATIVE CAUSE return a nice chunk of change for me, I would at least appreciate three weeks of buzz about a possible Triple Crown winner. 


It'd be nice if the Belmont Stakes doesn't suck for a change!