The 6th Annual Wothism Kentucky Derby Preview

CALIFORNIA CHROME (pictured) has been dominant
thus far in 2014. But I'm taking INTENSE HOLIDAY to
win the 140th running of the Kentucky Derby.

(5/3/14 UPDATE: I'm ultimately just playing the straight math and going off of my odds like I should. My official plays:

• WPS INTENSE HOLIDAY
• WPS MEDAL COUNT, TAPITURE
• Ex Box INTENSE HOLIDAY/MEDAL COUNT/TAPITURE
• Tri Box CHITU/INTENSE HOLIDAY/MEDAL COUNT/TAPITURE
• Tri CAL CHROME/above four/above four)

(5/2/14 UPDATE: HOPPERTUNITY scratched yesterday morning, which is too bad as far as I'm concerned — as noted below, I thought he would be overbet, and his defection takes some of the value out of my other plays. I don't think his scratch impacts the race makeup much, though ... he didn't figure to be part of the pace, so the rest of the analysis below remains the same.

The only other note I have is that CALIFORNIA CHROME hasn't looked particularly great training over the track according to reports. I'm not totally switching my strategy to play against him, but I will up my "required odds to bet" to 4/1.

I'll be back with more later tonight or tomorrow.)

Before you go any further, I have to warn you: I started writing this year’s Kentucky Derby preview back on April 18.

In other words, this year’s edition of the Wothism Derby preview is every bit as long as it has been in the past. (About 11 pages of 12-point font follow below.)

This is my sixth year of writing an absurdly long Derby preview, and I’ve come a long way — after a handful of calendar years where I mostly treaded water, I turned a solid profit in 2013 for the first time. Between hitting (skip ahead to the next paragraph if you want to avoid my braggadocio) the Gulfstream Park Rainbow Pick 6, pegging the Preakness and Belmont winners, the Travers exacta and some nice Breeders' Cup winners, it was a fun year.

But I still missed the mark on last year’s Derby more than ever before. The horses I liked the most almost all ended up finishing in the back half of the field as the extremely fast early pace sunk most of their hopes.

What I’m saying, then, is this: I’m pretty good at this game now, but I could still certainly be way off on the Derby. For every big bet I’ve won, I’ve been wrong plenty more times. I'm confident the below analysis is solid, but please don’t run out and put your house on any of these horses. 

A few notes ...

I just have a few overarching notes for the less experienced horse fans to remember about the Kentucky Derby:

1. These horses are 3-year-olds, meaning they’re not yet completely physically mature in the truest sense of the word. They're capable of big, generally unforeseen improvements from race to race.

2. These 3-year-olds are running 10 furlongs for the first time in their lives — the longest any of them has run to date is 9 furlongs, and some have even run less than that. While this may not seem like a huge difference, one furlong is 660 feet. Ergo, an extra furlong is equivalent to an extra 2+ football fields. This extra furlong is generally considered “the championship furlong” — good horses can win at 9 furlongs, but only “true champions” can win at 10. 

3. These 3-year-olds running 10 furlongs for the first time ever are also facing the best horses they’ve ever faced, in front of a much larger crowd than they’ve ever seen. Many of these horses have run against a few of the others, but this a packed 20-horse field full of only the best of the best (fields typically don’t exceed 12, or at the most 14, horses in a single race). And the incredible size of the crowd can not be ignored: These are horses, flesh and blood … not machines. Temperament matters. For instance, PALACE MALICE strapped on some blinkers for the Derby last year and was ultimately so scared of the noise without being able to see it in his newly limited field of vision that he sprinted off to some of the fastest fractions ever in the Derby! And this was from a generally calm horse that had never needed the lead.

All of which is to say that there are a lot of unknowns in this race; even horses who went on to clearly be the best of their generation have lost the Derby due to any combination of the above.

A few more notes ...

I wrote the bulk of this before post positions were drawn and well before odds were out, so I ranked the horses from 20-1 in tiers that I labeled according to the chances I perceive the horse having. You’ll see some horses in their own tiers and some together with each other for now, and I’ll continually circle back to report on any updates and give a final list of “bets” vs. “non-bets” — in other words, I might ultimately be more interested in betting on a horse I have listed as the 10th-most likely winner at odds of 30-1 rather than a horse I have listed as the 5th-most likely winner at odds of 10-1.

The horses will be ranked solely on WIN PROBABILITY. The list below does not necessarily mean I think the 18th-ranked horse will finish 18th. In fact, I generally picture the horses I have ranked in that “PROBABLY CAN’T WIN” tier as being more or less a toss-up to finish ahead of the horse in the “POSSIBLE MONSTER IN THE MAKING” tier — the horses toward the bottom are just more likely to “be who they are” — they’re decent horses, but they have shown nothing special or even a sign of being special, and you have to be at least a little bit special to win the Kentucky Derby.

One final note (seriously, I’m almost done): I generally like the points system Churchill Downs enacted in 2013 to replace the graded earnings system as a means to determine the Derby field, but it’s a shame they don’t have some sort of exception for a dominant filly. As it is, a filly would have to win one of the major prep races against the boys, and that's a big risk to take! So now we’ve been robbed of a possible UNTAPABLE showdown against the boys, which is a real shame because she's the type that I think could have performed well against this group.

Predicted Pace and Race Shape

The pace will be fast. The way horses are bred these days, it just seems impossible to see a slow Derby pace anymore — I learned that last year, and there are plenty of horses here that want to be on the lead or up close early. I don’t think it’s impossible to win on the lead, but it will take a special, special horse to do it.

Here's generally where I expect horses to fall into place as they hit the backstretch:

On/very near the lead: VICAR'S IN TROUBLE, GENERAL A ROD, CHITU, WILDCAT RED, CALIFORNIA CHROME

Second flight behind the leaders: HARRY'S HOLIDAY, UNCLE SIGH, TAPITURE, HOPPERTUNITY, SAMRAAT

Third flight behind the leaders: INTENSE HOLIDAY, DANZA, MEDAL COUNT, VINCEREMOS, RIDE ON CURLIN, CANDY BOY, WE MISS ARTIE

At the rear: COMMANDING CURVE, WICKED STRONG, DANCE WITH FATE 

And now, without further ado ... here are my 20-1 rankings of this year's Derby field:

The "Seriously, why bother?" tier:

20. HARRY’S HOLIDAY (Post Position #2, 50-1 morning line): I literally know *nothing* about this horse. I follow this stuff pretty closely (obviously, as you’ll see below if you don’t believe me yet), but I had not heard of him until I heard he was getting in the Derby. He apparently finished second to WE MISS ARTIE in the Spiral after setting a blazing early pace and staggering home to lose by just a nose. He was then defeated by 28 lengths in the Blue Grass on synthetic, and he hasn't won on dirt since Dec. 20, 2013. I would not bet this horse at 100-1. I have literally nothing good to say here.

19. WE MISS ARTIE (PP #7, 50-1 ML): This is only slightly less of a joke. He was beaten by 17 lengths in the Fountain of Youth in his only 2014 start on dirt, but he won the Spiral on the fake stuff by a nose, so he's in! His Breeders' Cup Juvenile finish just four lengths back of the winner is probably his most impressive performance to date in terms of Derby evaluation ... but he was seventh in that race. The only reason I can give him a mild upgrade is because he comes from off the pace and he's better bred for the distance than HARRY'S HOLIDAY, but he's clearly a turf/synthetic specialist and it's hard to imagine him contending here, especially after a lackluster workout over the weekend.

18. WILDCAT RED (PP #10, 15-1 ML): Just a pure speedster without much apparent class from his pedigree. Not much looks good for him here, and if he couldn't hold on to a lead in the Florida Derby on the lead with a slow pace, I see no way he can do it on a less speed-happy track for another furlong. His performance in the Fountain of Youth actually was sort of impressive, but given the speed-favoring track, his breeding, his running style, and his lackluster appearance in Louisville so far (really surprisingly bad works), I can't possibly see him wiring this field, and the fact that he's 15-1 is extremely laughable.

17. GENERAL A ROD (PP #8, 15-1 ML): Just another speedster who I think will melt in the Derby pace. He has actually been beaten by WILDCAT RED in two of their last three starts, but he seems better bred for this and has showed a *bit* more restraint early -- he won't be coming from off the pace, but he might be more willing to sit back off of it just a bit. Either way, he was just sold to Starlight Racing this week ... who sells a horse that they think can win the Derby? And why would Starlight purchase a horse for the Derby when they already own INTENSE HOLIDAY? Hmm ... more on this later. Again, 15-1 here is just a complete farce.

The "Probably can't win but may plod up and hit the board" tier:

16. COMMANDING CURVE (PP #17, 50-1 ML): This is GOLDEN SOUL, the second-place finisher in 2013, all over again … same trainer, same plodding along, picking up the pieces style … he could very well bomb into the exotics like GOLDEN SOUL did and make them pay really nicely, but he’s just not anywhere near special enough. He has one win on his resume — yep, his maiden win. He was third, five lengths back, in the Louisiana Derby. He was bumped at the break and ran wide there, so you could say he's closer to VICAR'S IN TROUBLE and INTENSE HOLIDAY than lengths alone would show, but that was also by far his best speed figure to date. He'd have to take another big jump forward to win here, and I don't see it at all. I actually made the line on this horse 50-1, so if somehow he drifted up (he won't), I might actually consider a win bet despite his being placed in this tier.

15. VINCEREMOS (PP #9, 30-1 ML): I had him in the Sam F. Davis, but he has just been awful in the Tampa Bay Derby and the Blue Grass. I think he’s a tough, usable horse in exotics, but I would truly be surprised if he popped up and won. His breeding is solid, but it also indicated he should have taken better to the synthetic, so it's conceivable that you could draw a line through that performance and he could improve returning to dirt. That said, his workout at Churchill was generally unimpressive — not terrible, but not awe-inducing — and he'd have to improve *a lot.* Finally, trainer Todd Pletcher seemed on the fence about running him even when he was confirmed to be in the field if he wanted to be, so that doesn't inspire a ton of confidence, either.

14. RIDE ON CURLIN (PP #19, 15-1 ML): In nine starts, he has two wins, two seconds, four thirds and one fourth. Impressive consistency. On the other hand, he hasn't won a race at longer than 6 furlongs. Based on style and breeding, he just generally seems like he'll run all day, and if everything else falls apart, he could somehow win. But the Derby, while longer than these horses have ever run, typically requires some brilliance. Plodders don't win the Derby. I'd be interested in this guy in the Belmont if he runs there, but for now, I have to pass. DANZA, HOPPERTUNITY and TAPITURE have all beaten him recently. I think he's an almost must use in exotics at a likely nice price, but for a pure win bet? I just can't imagine how badly some of the more talented horses would have to fall apart for that to happen. Some of them may, but not all of them. I'm not all that bothered by him in post position 19 because I expect him to take back a bit, but it's obviously not ideal. Here's another horse that I don't see at 15-1 AT ALL.

The "Maaaaybe ... but let's be real here" tier:

13. VICAR'S IN TROUBLE (PP #1, 30-1 ML): He hasn't won without getting the lead, and he hasn't faced great fields. Not a great sign for the No. 2 horse on the points list. I don't think he's necessarily a terrible horse, but the expected hot pace scenario combined with the big step up in competition and an extra furlong for a horse with a pedigree that doesn't scream "classic distance" just doesn't seem like a good bet at all. I truly see no scenario in which I would be on this horse. On the positive side, he did run pretty quick early in the Louisiana Derby and still finished strongly enough to hold off a cross-firing INTENSE HOLIDAY, but — and this is a key distinction — he was by himself by a length on the lead. A horse running alone on the lead is typically much more relaxed than one that has to run eyeball to eyeball with another horse pushing him every step of the way.

12. UNCLE SIGH (PP #3, 30-1 ML): After SAMRAAT, his old New York rival, clearly got the best of him a few times, he disastrously switched tactics in the Wood, finishing seventh. I don't think the breeding supports this try, nor do the results to date. He's just another hard knocker who I think will likely attend the early pace and fade. I don't think SAMRAAT will win, and I don't see UNCLE SIGH beating SAMRAAT, so ...

11. CHITU (PP #13, 20-1 ML): The obvious knock here is that he wants to be on the lead and he hasn't proven himself by setting a really hot pace and holding on. I was more interested in this horse when I started writing this preview, actually, but that was before Bob Baffert was considering running him in the Derby Trial, before he lost a shoe and before his hoof damage came to light — there's just a lot of apparent negativity around this horse. On the positive side, I liked his breeding (by an A.P. Indy dam), his steady improvement (last three speed figs: 89-96-103), and his gutty second-place finish to CANDY BOY in the Robert B. Lewis. The bad news: He's always been on or very near the lead, his hoof has some possibly serious damage, and his trainer seemed more interested in running stablemate BAYERN in the Derby before it seems like CHITU's ownership put a stop to that idea. At big odds, I might consider this one, but the possibility of things going wrong for him seems a lot higher than the likelihood that they go right. I will add that I think he got the perfect post in 13 — there's absolutely no speed to his outside, so he may get a picture perfect trip if he can harness his speed at all. I ultimately made him 25-1, so he's somewhat near a bet even in this tier.

10. SAMRAAT (PP #6, 15-1 ML): This horse suffered his first defeat in the Wood but actually impressed me for the first time. Beating up on UNCLE SIGH got pretty old, so the work he did near the hot pace of that race really was impressive, especially at the distance. He's now run four straight 99 speed figures, which should indicate he's ready to pop a bigger one ... but 1 1/4 miles just seems like too much for him coming out of an Indian Charlie dam. He was worked a full mile — a rare move in horse racing these days — to apparently work on some of that stamina, but it was a relatively slow mile, so make of that what you will (I don't make much of it). He also likes to be closer to the pace than I'd prefer, especially for a horse with his apparent distance limitations. The question is ... is there really more there or is he just what he is at this point? My money will be against him. I will add that while I think SAMRAAT is clearly better than UNCLE SIGH by now, I don't see how 15-1 vs. 30-1 is justified. All but one of the field's 15-1 horses, in fact, I just find to be a complete joke. Speaking of that other horse ...

The "I really don't know" tier:

9. TAPITURE (PP #15, 15-1 ML): Pretty hollow performance in each of his last two. Absolutely no excuse in the Arkansas Derby as he actually regressed off a paired 99 speed figure in the Rebel and Southwest. It's pretty clear that he just doesn't run as well if he's not leading. Who knows what's up with Asmussen's barn, too -- was this guy on something that he's not anymore? You never know. I don't think so, but when you additionally consider his weak workout on April 22, this horse just completely seems like he's heading in the wrong direction. Finally, he has only won two races to date, and both have come when he's led at the second call. On the plus side, he has run at Churchill three times and won once with two third-place finishes, and he acquitted himself reasonably well in a workout in the pouring rain on April 28. In terms of what we've actually seen from him, he probably belongs lower, but the odds he has been bet down to in every start he's made seem to indicate there's more here than has met the eye to date. I don't plan on betting him because I literally do not know what to expect, but I wouldn't be all that shocked if he popped up and won.

8. CANDY BOY (PP #18, 20-1 ML): I liked him in the Santa Anita Derby, but then he got trounced by CALIFORNIA CHROME, so I'm not totally sure what to think. I generally expected him to be further off the pace than he was, so I feel like Gary Stevens took him out of his game a little bit. I would expect a smarter ride from Gary this time, but trying to predict jockeys is notoriously difficult. His breeding looks pretty iffy for the distance, but then again, Candy Ride's just are always indecipherable to me. He did have one of the better workouts I saw at Churchill, so I again feel like there's "something more" he has yet to show us. From a speed figure standpoint he's lacking, but he could be ready to move forward in his second off the layoff. 20-1 is halfway tempting here (I made him 24-1).

7. MEDAL COUNT (PP #14, 20-1 ML): Hmmmmph. Trainers are notoriously full of it — most of them will always tell you “the horse is doing great, we can’t wait to see him run in such peak condition” — but Dale Romans has historically shot pretty straight. And he says this is the best horse he’s brought to the Derby, which is not light praise considering he has sent out top-four finishers in three of the last four years (PADDY O’PRADO, SHACKLEFORD, DULLAHAN). On form alone, I really don’t see it — he was beaten pretty soundly by DANCE WITH FATE in the Blue Grass, and he needed to run there because he hadn’t done enough to date to warrant a spot in the Derby field. But Romans keeps touting this horse. He really has no reason to, either — this isn’t a situation where he has multiple horses in the field and maybe really wants to bet on the other one (see Baffert, Bob, and CHITU + HOPPERTUNITY). So, I’m generally inclined to take Romans at his word when he says this horse is really, really good. The thing is ... I made the fair odds here 22-1, so I'll be keeping an eye out.

The "Solid but overbet" tier:

6. DANCE WITH FATE (PP #12, 20-1 ML): His Blue Grass score was visually impressive, but he's been so much better on artificial surfaces (two wins and two seconds in five starts) than dirt (a second and an eighth-place finish) that it's hard to put a ton of stock in this. Additionally, his speed figure in the Blue Grass was a big jump for him, and it's a lot to ask for yet another improvement. On the other hand, he worked pretty spectacularly over dirt at Santa Anita on April 26 ... so it remains a question mark. His off-the-pace running style is a big plus, too, and that's why I put him this high — he's one of two true "out of the clouds" closers with quality in this race, so if he can handle dirt (Churchill's dirt surface is known for being more conducive to turf/synthetic horses than most dirt tracks) and the pace melts down, he could win. I just think that the visual impressiveness of the Blue Grass score will cloud the fact that his form is unlikely to transfer well. He's 20-1 on the morning line, but I really don't see that sticking; if it does, then he doesn't belong in the "overbet" tier at all — he'll belong in the "Bob is betting" tier.

(SCRATCHED!) 5. HOPPERTUNITY (PP #11, 6-1 ML): The case for him goes something like this: a) Baffert used the Santa Anita Derby as a prep race, b) HOPPERTUNITY wasn't fully cranked and the 5.25-length win for CALIFORNIA CHROME could be erased by another furlong and more conditioning. The case against him, which I will make, is this: a) Whatever the excuse, he got crushed by CALIFORNIA CHROME, INTENSE HOLIDAY (in the Risen Star) and only beat TAPITURE and RIDE ON CURLIN, b) His only wins have come when he has been within a length of the lead at the second call. Seems like kind of a toss-up, no? Which horse shows up here? I think he's a very solid horse, but not really all that different from a horse like SAMRAAT, for instance. I do like his breeding for the distance better than many others, and the generally paired speed figures in his last two races (100 and 99) are typically a good sign, but there's just no doubt that he'll be overbet as "Baffert's key horse." There seems to be some sort of perception that he could be equal with CALIFORNIA CHROME if he was asked in the Santa Anita Derby, but CALIFORNIA CHROME didn't feel the whip in that race, either. He could maybe win, but not with my money on him. One final note: Baffert's management of CHITU makes me think that, just maybe, he really likes CHITU and has built up HOPPERTUNITY as his real threat just to make the odds on CHITU better for himself/the owners/etc. I'm likely overthinking that, but there's a theory about the "other Baffert horse" in races like this and there's enough weird stuff going on here that I'll stay away. This line is definitely way too low — I would need 12-1 to consider him, even though I do think post 11 is pretty perfect for him.

4. WICKED STRONG (PP #20, 8-1 ML): From a visual standpoint, he could not have been more impressive winning the Wood. From a realistic standpoint, that race absolutely fell apart up front. Any horse could have picked up the pieces. That said, WICKED STRONG finished the final three furlongs in about 36.5 seconds, so it wasn't as if he was crawling to the finish line. He's bred for the distance and comes from off the pace, so there's enough to like here. What I don't love is how he was routed in two tries at Gulfstream over the winter in the Holy Bull and then again in an optional claimer by a combined 21.5 lengths. The excuse there would be that Gulfstream favors speed, but, you know, that didn't stop ORB last year. If he runs back to the Wood, he very well may be your Derby winner. But he figures to be one of the last three or four horses in the field, might bounce back to "normal" off of that otherworldly effort, and 17-19 horses in front of you is a lot of dirt to eat and a lot of traffic to navigate. I will say that I don't think post 20 hurts him all that much — he was going to drop back, anyway, so if anything this might help him in that he won't get banged around at the start. Finally, and this is definitely a very soft angle, but in addition to people overrating the Wood victory (which hasn't produced a Derby top-three finisher in a decade), the name of this horse pays homage to the whole "Boston Strong" mantra. The people who bet on horses based on their name are likely to gravitate to this one, so I'll again stay away. I made him 15-1 so definitely passing here.

The "Possible monster in the making" tier:

3. DANZA (PP #4, 10-1 ML): Allow me a brief moment to lament a bet that I "should have" made. It's a classic horseplayer regret, but in this case, I was legitimately trying to. With about two minutes to post in the Arkansas Derby and my BAYERN-RIDE ON CURLIN-TAPITURE exacta box locked and loaded, I took another look at the PPs and thought to myself, "You know, Todd (Pletcher, the trainer) doesn't need another runner in the Derby — I don't think he'd be running here if he thought he was that far in over his head. I should throw something on DANZA." I go to my ADW and they've closed the race for some inexplicable reason. I try to get to my other ADW and the password I have saved in Google Chrome isn't working. I'm frantically searching for it and finally get it as they're loading. I punch in a WPS amount as the last horse is walking in on my feed. NO DICE. Of course, DANZA won at 41-1. OY. Anyway, he sat off of a moderate pace in the Arkansas Derby, blew by up the rail and it was over. He looked incredible. The thing is ... I'm not sure he really beat anyone there. BAYERN was likely out of shape and/or just isn't that good (was beaten last Saturday in the Derby Trial against lesser out of competition), and as discussed, I have no idea what to make of TAPITURE at this point, and RIDE ON CURLIN is just kind of a plodder. In comparison with the other horses I've run through, though, this one seems maybe-sorta-possibly special. There's a seeming potential for greatness here — we just don't know what we're dealing with yet. I have him at 9-1 on my personal line, so I would indeed bet 10-1 here.

The "Just feels right" tier:

2. INTENSE HOLIDAY (PP #16, 12-1 ML): When I started writing this, I wrote, "I don't want to come out and say THIS IS MY DERBY HORSE, but ... ." Well, forget that now. THIS IS MY DERBY HORSE. I really liked his Risen Star win, I like his breeding, I like his generally paired speed figures (100 and 99, just like HOPPERTUNITY, actually), I like his off-the-pace running style, and I even liked his 3.5-length beaten effort in the Louisiana Derby (couldn't run down a loose on the lead VICAR'S IN TROUBLE while cross-firing (his front and back legs were out of sync, essentially — kind of like if a human was running with his right arm and right leg forward at the same time ... completely discombobulated)). The knock against him is that he has already been beaten by a number of horses in this field in the past: CAIRO PRINCE (actually out of the field now, but still) beat him three times, RIDE ON CURLIN beat him, WICKED STRONG beat him, and VICAR'S IN TROUBLE beat him. But as I noted near the beginning of this preview, these are 3-year-old horses. They develop and grow, and based on what I (and others) thought was the best work of any Derby horse, I strongly believe he's rounding into top form at the perfect time. He's also making his fourth start off of a layoff here with about 35 days between starts, and if they fixed that cross-firing issue (which, by all accounts, they think they have), he has every chance in this race. Finally, I mentioned earlier that I thought GENERAL A ROD being purchased was pretty weird — could he be in there to ensure an honest pace for INTENSE HOLIDAY to run into? He's kind of become "the buzz horse," which may ultimately lead him to be overbet, but as of right now, I expect him to be the fifth or sixth choice and to bet on him. At 12-1, he's a yes, please (I made him my 7-1 second choice).

The "Very deserving favorite, but can I really bet on a favorite in the Kentucky Derby?" tier:

1. CALIFORNIA CHROME (PP #5, 5-2 ML): Excuse me a moment while I kick myself a few times. 

...

OK, I'm back. The Kentucky Derby has "future wager" pools where you can bet on horses to win the Derby in four different pools in the months leading up to the race.

Anyway, there are a lot of funny bets we can look back on now as completely lost money (Honor Code at 12-1 was the lowest individual betting interest in Pool 2 and he's not running in the Derby, nor is No. 2 Top Billing, etc.), and I've never bet on horses in these pools because they're just generally impossible with the fickle nature of horses.

Flashback to Jan. 27 or so. I'm reviewing races from the weekend that was and watch the California Cup Derby. California Chrome blows away a pretty mediocre field. Ho hum, right? Normally, yes. I wouldn't look at his form, for instance, and say WOW, WHAT A WIN! But when I watched the race, I was absolutely blown away. He just blew by the leaders without any urging and then ran away from everyone. 

Now, to be fair, I've been fooled by my eyes in terms of "impressive" horses plenty of times in the past. But this was a time where I said, you know what, I'm going to bet on this horse to win the Derby during the next Derby pool.

Well, I didn't. I truly don't remember why, but I didn't. And now he's going to be something like 2-1 or 3-1 on Derby Day when I could have gotten 30-1 in that pool. WOOF.

Anyway, he's the horse to beat by a mile. With 20 horses and all of the traffic, it's hard to justify betting on a favorite, but ORB won as the Derby favorite last year, so it's not like they can't win.

The biggest issue I see is the pace for CALIFORNIA CHROME — while he has won from off the pace, he has won his last two races on the lead, and he was a close-up third in the aforementioned California Cup Derby. Even in that race, he didn't take dirt in his face; he sat wide and got that perfect kind of trip.

So, the question is whether you want to take something like 3-1 on a horse that is either going to have to a) run faster earlier than he ever has and still run longer than he ever has (and I'll add here that his pedigree for 1 1/4 miles does not necessarily look Derby-winner worthy) or b) do something he never has by getting some dirt in his race, fighting through it, and persevering to beat 19 other horses.

On the other hand, he is clearly the best horse in the race, so if he gets a good post draw (and not buried down inside like LOOKIN AT LUCKY in 2010), why wouldn't you bet on him when all of the dumb money is betting longshots based on the horse's names. The prevailing opinion is that *any horse* can win the Kentucky Derby (MINE THAT BIRD at 50-1 in 2009 reaffirmed this), and in the past few years the odds on some truly no-hope horses in the past few years have been laughably low. In other words, the favorite must have some value there.

As a racing fan, I'm pulling for CALIFORNIA CHROME because he seems like a lock in the Preakness (his speed and style on that track against fewer horses just strikes me as generally unbeatable) and the sport could really use added interest and, truly a Triple Crown bid, but do I actually want to bet on him in the Derby?

Well, not at 5/2. I think he belongs at 7/2, and I'll draw that line in the sand for myself right now. It will be interesting to see if he gets there. His Wednesday morning gallop was not pretty — he looked kind of awful compared to INTENSE HOLIDAY, actually, so I may even move that "line in the sand" up over the next couple of days if he doesn't start looking better.

Projected Top 5 Finishers and Bet List

I expect CALIFORNIA CHROME to be the only real speed that lasts and for INTENSE HOLIDAY and DANZA to get first run on WICKED STRONG and DANCE WITH FATE.

Ergo, my predicted top five order of finish is: 1. CALIFORNIA CHROME, 2. INTENSE HOLIDAY, 3. DANZA, 4. HOPPERTUNITY, 5. WICKED STRONG

With that said, here are the bets I plan on making at the moment (this list is subject to change given updates I get on the condition of horses and certainly how the actual odds look on Saturday):

Win bets on:

DANCE WITH FATE 20-1
DANZA 10-1
INTENSE HOLIDAY 12-1

I see some merit in enough of these horses that playing exotics is extremely difficult — I'd literally want to play about half the field in a trifecta, for instance. If I do anything, it would probably be INTENSE HOLIDAY wheeled with the following in an exacta: COMMANDING CURVE, WICKED STRONG, DANCE WITH FATE, CANDY BOY, MEDAL COUNT, DANZA, TAPITURE, RIDE ON CURLIN, HOPPERTUNITY, CHITU, CALIFORNIA CHROME. That's only a $44 ticket, so it might be worth a shot.

5/2 update, 11:03 p.m.: Quick look at the current odds and a brief comment on each:

Kentucky Derby Advance Wagering
1. Vicar’s in Trouble, 21-1 -- Yep, still pass. 
2. Harry’s Holiday, 35-1 -- Laughably low.
3. Uncle Sigh, 22-1 -- Nope.
4. Danza, 8-1 -- This is starting to feel a little bit low to  me. I have him right at 8-1 with the scratch of HOPPERTUNITY, so this would have to trickle back up for me to bet him to win.
5. California Chrome, 3-1 -- The closer the race gets, the less bullish I am on his chances. He's really one split-second at the start from losing hope because of all of the speed around him. Definitely need 4-1, I think, and don't see any way that shows up.
6. Samraat, 18-1 -- Conversely, I'm giving this one a little bit more credit. I had him No. 10 originally, and I'm inclined to use him on any exotics I might play at this point after hearing good reports from various sources.
7. We Miss Artie, 22-1 -- Even more laughable than Harry's Holiday. This has to be all Ramsey money, right?
8. General a Rod, 27-1 -- Would still have to trickle up even more to consider.
9. Vinceremos, 38-1 -- Remains a use in exotics, need closer to 50-1 to bother with a win bet.
10. Wildcat Red, 14-1 -- Yeah, no.
11. Hoppertunity, SCRATCHED
12. Dance With Fate, 14-1 -- Meh. 20-1 was a lot more appealing, but as I noted, I figured that wouldn't last. This is about right where I had him as fair, so would bet this only very lightly at this price.
13. Chitu, 25-1 -- Right on my line. If the track is playing fast, I'm interested.
14. Medal Count, 17-1 -- A little lower than the line I made, but I remain interested due to all the good vibrations I've heard around him.
15. Tapiture, 27-1 -- Love at this price.
16. Intense Holiday, 13-1 -- Love at this price, which is surprising since it seems like everyone likes him. 
17. Commanding Curve, 26-1 -- One guy I respect a lot thinks this one is worth a win bet. I still disagree --  especially at 26-1 -- but again, he's a must-use in exotics.
18. Candy Boy, 16-1 -- I remain halfway interested, but this price is too low.
19. Ride On Curlin, 12-1 -- Borel factor? Way too low.
20. Wicked Strong, 8-1 -- Too low.
21. Pablo Del Monte, SCRATCHED

Maybe I'll still come up with some great wagering strategy tomorrow, but there are enough horses I like enough that it feels more like *gambling* at this point than an educated investment. And, believe it or not, that's the goal of what I do!

Kentucky Oaks Preview

As I alluded to in the Derby preview, UNTAPABLE looks almost unbeatable based on her past two races. Her speed figures are that much higher than anyone else's in the field.

That said, the old saying goes that "pace makes the race," and she has a *lot* of company on the front end. She doesn't need the lead necessarily as she's pressed the pace nicely in her last two starts (won by a combined 17 lengths), but she has been within a half-length of the leader in both of those dominant wins. MY MISS SOPHIA and FASHION PLATE are no jokes, either.

I could see as many as eight of the 13 horses in the field leading or vying for it, so I'm taking a look at the horses that seem to have the ability to win from off the pace: ROSALIND, THANK YOU MARYLOU, GOT LUCKY, PLEASE EXPLAIN, and RIA ANTONIA.

Starting in post 12 and working our way in, if GOT LUCKY couldn't make up ground against a blistering early pace in the Gazelle — she was 4.5 lengths back of MY MISS SOPHIA at the second call and lost by 7.5 — it's hard to imagine her doing so today.

In post 4 (curveball!), ROSALIND ran huge at Keeneland in her last out, posting a 100 speed fig and dead-heating for a win by seven lengths with ROOM SERVICE (not running in the Oaks). Before that, though, she had been merely solid on dirt — in fact, she's never won on it! Her pedigree, too, is turf-oriented. What I like the most about her, actually, is that she has the best distance breeding in either the Oaks or Derby — she'll run for days. Still, we can find better.

In fact, I prefer THANK YOU MARYLOU in post 5 despite the fact that she was beaten by seven lengths by ROSALIND in the aforementioned Keeneland race. She has solid distance breeding, too, and should take a step forward returning to dirt and in her third off the layoff. She posted a sharp workout and at 30-1, this looks like a solid play. 

In post 2, RIA ANTONIA has been working lights out under the new-ish (March) tutelage of Bob Baffert — and should finally get a fast pace to close into again. She hasn't had one since she bombed home at 32-1 in the BC Juvenile Fillies, so this seems like a great spot for her at 10-1. Baffert putting the blinkers back on is interesting, too.

In post 1, PLEASE EXPLAIN clearly seems to lack the quality of the others, but she closed admirably in the Honeybee, placing third before getting placed 11th through disqualification. She shouldn't be 50-1, and I doubt she will be.

Summary: I think UNTAPABLE and MY MISS SOPHIA are pretty clearly standouts, but they'll have plenty of work to do with FASHION PLATE and each other up front. THANK YOU MARYLOU seems to offer a ton of value at 30-1, and I like RIA ANTONIA a lot, as well. Not sure exactly how I'll play it yet, but wheeling each of those in exotics and hoping another bomb staggers home after the favorites burn each other out seems like the way to play this race.

AND THAT'S IT. 

If you made it this far, you are very likely either a) related to me or b) insane. Congratulations on whichever category you fall into!

The Best March Madness Pool Ever ... 2014 Edition

Due to a Vegas run last week, I didn't have time to get this sorted out before the first round of the tournament. That said, I'm guessing that most of you have already failed miserably in your bracket prognostications and are looking for a second chance at glory.

Here's a quick overview of the rules:

1. Each person gets a budget of $100 each week (this year, that's this week before the Sweet 16/Elite 8, and before the Final 4/Championship).

2. Each person will select as many teams as they desire as long as said teams can fit in their budget.

3. Teams will earn points as follows:

Sweet 16 win = 2 points
Elite 8 win= 6 points
Final 4 win = 3 points
Championship win = 9 points

4. The most points at the end of the tournament wins. The winner will take 60% of the pot, second will take 30%, and third will take 10%.

5. The entry fee will be $30.

If you're wondering how the price per team will be created, I'll simply use a proprietary spreadsheet that gives each possible outcome in the tournament a percentage.

The idea is to use these percentages to price each team based on their likelihood of making it through the weekend unscathed. For instance, I give Florida roughly a 53% chance of making the Final Four (I have them beating UCLA about 66% of the time and beating Stanford/Dayton about 80% of the time).

So, without further ado, here is the price list for the Sweet 16 weekend:

FLORIDA 53
LOUISVILLE 51
ARIZONA 49
VIRGINIA 34
MICHIGAN ST. 27
IOWA ST. 25
UCLA 23
WISCONSIN 23
MICHIGAN 22
STANFORD 17
SAN DIEGO ST. 17
TENNESSEE 16
CONNECTICUT 14
KENTUCKY 12
BAYLOR 10
DAYTON 8

Again, you can construct a squad of however many teams you would like AS LONG AS YOU STAY AT OR UNDER $100. You could take Dayton, Baylor, Kentucky, Connecticut, Tennessee, San Diego State and Stanford AND potentially (but probably not) score as many as 36 points (more likely under 10 if we're being honest with ourselves)! Or you could just take Louisville and Arizona and more likely score 16.

Whatever you do, remember that even if your teams flame out this week, you'll be supplied with new team prices next week and could still have a small chance to win regardless of what happened.

You can have as many entries as you want. Feel free to share with friends, but if we get above 20 entries somehow, I'm keeping 5% for myself for doing the legwork.

If you want to be in, send me an email at bobwothe@gmail.com titled 2014 NCAA POOL WEEK 1 TEAMS with your teams and $30 via PayPal gift (bobwothe@gmail.com) or check (2190 Willow Hill Dr., Neenah, WI 54956) by Thursday, 3/27, at 10 a.m. CST. If you haven't gotten me the money or made other arrangements by then, your entry will not count, PERIOD.

Last thing: In order to remove any issues with me knowing other people's picks before giving my own, I will send my picks to a new email account each week before 11:59 p.m. CST Monday of that week. You will then need to get your picks to me by 11:59 p.m. CST Wednesday of that week. Then, on Thursday morning of each week, I will send out an email with a spreadsheet containing everyone's picks AS WELL AS the login credentials to the email account that I create. This will provide a timestamped version of my picks so that you can rest assured that I am not cheating.

As for this week, I have already sent my entry on to this new email address, so you may send in your entries whenever you wish.

Let me know if you have any questions. Again, feel free to share this with others!

The (sort-of-annual, mostly-ripped-off) Wothism College Football Playoff

I've done various riffs on the notion of a college football playoff in past years via various mediums, and now that we actually will have a four-team playoff next year, this post as a whole loses some of its luster.

HOWEVER ...

The four-team playoff still has one potential major flaw (there are many minor flaws, but I'll focus on the major one here) that I see: A smaller conference team still has almost no hope of making the national title game. Northern Illinois, for instance, was undefeated but only ranked No. 14 before their MAC title game loss.

You can say a lot of things about the schedule the Huskies played or the way they beat inferior teams, but almost any amount of non-conference scheduling wouldn't make up for the weak schedule NIU played this season. And you can't have teams switching conferences all the time like they have the past few years. It's unsustainable.

That's why I still like the 16-team model proposed by my former editor at the Washington County Daily News, Mr. Larry Hanson. It keeps the regular season and conference championships every bit as meaningful as they are now (except for maybe a few teams, which we'll get to in a minute), while also giving every team that a reasonable person would say *should* have a shot.

The model is also very simple: Each conference champion gets in plus at-large bids to the top-ranked BCS teams that *did not* win their conference.

Here's how that would look this season (BCS rankings listed first, when applicable):

1 ACC: Florida State (13-0)
2 SEC: Auburn (12-1)
4 Big Ten: Michigan State (12-1)
5 Pac-12: Stanford (11-2)
6 Big 12: Baylor (11-1)
15 American: UCF (11-1)
20 Mountain West: Fresno State (11-1)
MAC: Bowling Green (10-3)
C-USA: Rice (10-3)
Sun Belt: Louisiana Lafayette (8-4)

3 Alabama (11-1)
7 Ohio State (12-1)
8 Missouri (11-2)
9 South Carolina (10-2)
11 Oregon (10-2)
12 Oklahoma (10-2)

Part of me thinks the the conference champions should get higher seeds (i.e. Bowling Green is seeded eighth and hosts Rice, while UCF is seeded sixth and hosts Alabama), but let's be honest: That wouldn't fly, and really, it doesn't make a lot of sense. So, I would seed this based on the actual BCS standings, and seed teams based on their overall conference strength if they're not in the BCS top 25.

To wit, here's the first round (my projected final scores in parentheses after the matchup) to be played on Dec. 14:

#16 Louisiana-Lafayette at #1 Florida State (52-6 FSU)
#9 South Carolina at #8 Missouri (35-27 Missouri)

#12 UCF at #5 Stanford (31-17 Stanford)
#13 Fresno State at #4 Michigan State (28-20 Michigan State)

#11 Oklahoma at #6 Baylor (42-17 Baylor)
#14 Bowling Green at #3 Alabama (35-10 Alabama)

#10 Oregon at #7 Ohio State (38-35 Ohio State)
#15 Rice at #2 Auburn (40-20 Auburn)

Second round (Dec. 21):

#8 Missouri at #1 Florida State (42-17 FSU)
#5 Stanford at #4 Michigan State (21-14 Stanford)

#6 Baylor at #3 Alabama (31-30 Alabama)
#7 Ohio State at #2 Auburn (38-31 Ohio State)

Third round (neutral on Dec. 28):

#5 Stanford vs. #1 Florida State (35-17 FSU)
#7 Ohio State vs. #3 Alabama (28-24 Alabama)

Title game (neutral on Jan. 6):

#3 Alabama vs. #1 Florida State (28-20 FSU)

I'm the first to say that my predictions are likely too bullish for Florida State -- after all, Alabama was just a 10-point favorite *at* Auburn, and now Florida State is an 8-point favorite on a neutral field against Auburn, so Vegas may even have Alabama favored over Florida State -- but it sure would be nice to find out about FSU for sure.

I don't think that highly of Auburn at all -- personally or from a numbers perspective -- so if Florida State does indeed win the title, you could make a very strong case that they "proved it" less than any champion I can remember. Clemson and Auburn are two deeply flawed teams, in my opinion, but those would FSU's two signature wins. Not great.

This 16-team system would have required wins over Missouri, Stanford and Alabama. There would be no free lunch in this system. Granted, it's just like the NFL playoffs where the best team doesn't always win (ahem, Ravens last year), but at least this system would a) give everyone who possibly deserves a chance that chance, and b) require everyone to beat the best teams to win it at all.

Four teams next year will be a nice change of pace (this year, it would have been Michigan State vs. Florida State and Alabama vs. Auburn again ... not all that exciting, but again, even that one extra game against elite competition would make me feel better about it), but I'll still cling to this 16-team model for quite a while.

2013 Breeders' Cup Saturday

Well, that was fun.

After I hit four exactas in the five
Breeders' Cup races on Friday, I'm counting on
THE FUGUE to win me plenty all by herself on Saturday.

I hit four of five exactas on Breeders' Cup Friday, two trifectas and one superfecta. I've had a handful of days where I won more money this year -- most of the exactas were very formful results, and I spread pretty wide on a few of them -- and I've had days where I was more "on" -- none of the horses I really liked actually won -- but putting up results like that just feels fantastic.

Nine more races here on Saturday. The biggest variable is how speed-favoring the track was today -- it was a pretty big joke, actually. Santa Anita should be downright embarrassed that a horse can go 22 and change and then 44 change, and then stagger home in nearly 26 and change and still not be at all challenged at a flat mile. That's not championship racing.

What's tough is that, per what I've read on Twitter, Santa Anita is doing some things that they're hoping will make it more fair tomorrow. I can't imagine that's going to reverse everything, but I'm going to operate under the premise that it's going to play a little bit more fairly tomorrow than it did today while still somewhat favoring speed. Here goes:

Juvenile Fillies: My initial reaction was that this race would be won from off the pace, but upon further review, while there are two horses that absolutely need the lead, this field actually seems pretty balanced to me. So, with the bias in play, I think horses closer to the pace have an advantage. ARTEMIS AGROTERA is undefeated and I'm guessing won't be a great bet on her own, but she has won both as the leader in a fast-paced race and just off the pace in a slow-paced race. SCANDALOUS ACT is stepping up in class but can't be ignored here as a front-runner based on the bias and her speed figures. I mentioned SECRET COMPASS the last time, but she benefited from a very fast pace to win at 10-1. I think she'll be overbet here. SHE'S A TIGER is the best horse to my eye ... she set that fast pace and only lost by a head. If she can go a bit slower, there's no reason to think she won't win here. SWEET REASON would also be impossible to leave off the ticket; she's a closer, but she's only been a few lengths off, and that's a margin that she can make up. UNTAPABLE is undefeated and looks capable of sitting closely enough to get a piece. I prefer the first three to the latter two, and I'll try those.

THE PLAY: ARTEMIS AGROTERA-SCANDALOUS ACT-SHE'S A TIGER-SWEET REASON-UNTAPABLE $0.10 superfecta ($12). ARETMIS AGROTERA-SCANDALOUS ACT-SHE'S A TIGER $2 exacta box ($12). Total bet = $24

Filly and Mare Turf: LAUGHING might be the most fortunate horse in the world, because she might be getting her fifth consecutive perfect pace scenario in this race. As the only confirmed pacesetter here, you can't ignore her chances of wiring this field. I also think that MARKETING MIX, although seemingly perhaps not what she was last year in her second-place finish here, will get a fantastic trip under Gary Stevens and could be part of a merry go-round race with LAUGHING. DANK was extremely eye-catching in her Beverly D win, and although I didn't think it was as impressive as others did, you can't leave her off. ROMANTICA looks dangerous coming over from Europe. Although she only managed seventh in her last start, she has won 2-of-4 over "good" ground in Europe (essentially firm here) and was second in the other two starts over good. In fact, she's my win/place/show play in this race -- I tried this race with THE FUGUE last year and got extremely unlucky, so I'm hoping she'll get a good trip here. TIZ FLIRTATIOUS ran down MARKETING MIX on a very slow pace last time and it would be impossible to leave this one, who has never finished worse than third, off any tickets. LADY OF SHAMROCK and QUSCHI are two others that I don't like to necessarily win, but could fill out the bottom of some exotics. I just don't really like MARKETING MIX or DANK when it comes down to it. They both feel overrated to me, so while they very may well win or run well, I'm looking for a minor upset. I'm not going deep on the exotics here because the only horse I truly don't like is EMOLLIENT -- she has not impressed me at all with her turf efforts. I might throw small win bets on LADY OF SHAMROCK and QUSCHI if they drift up at all from their 20/1 morning lines.

THE PLAY: $10 win/place/show on ROMANTICA ($30). ROMANTICA-LAUGHING-TIZ FLIRTATIOUS $2 exacta box ($12). Total bet = $42.

Filly and Mare Sprint: This might be the most interesting race to look at from a speed bias dynamic standpoint. My initial thought was that this would be a pretty much average race from a pace standpoint, but given the bias, I think a few horses that might normally be more relaxed will be sent. Specifically, I think SWEET LULU and STARSHIP TRUFFLES are likely to go forward more than they might have on a less pace-friendly track. So I foresee a four-way pace battle with those two, ISMENE and TEDDY'S PROMISE.

This is a complicated race, so I'm going to narrow it down some. I'm tossing SUMMER APPLAUSE on the cutback, ISMENE on the big class hike, RENEE'S TITAN, GREAT HOT and BOOK REVIEW.

I don't particularly like DANCE TO BRISTOL at the price with the bias, but would never leave her off any exotics as she has only finished worse than second one time in 19 starts. I liked SWEET LULU in my initial thoughts and think she's worthy of a look with the speed bias, but I think she's just a cut below at this stage of her career.

JUDY THE BEAUTY beat GROUPIE DOLL in their last, but she was also beaten by STARSHIP TRUFFLES in July, so it's not as if that means a whole lot. JUDY THE BEAUTY feels destined for a respectable 3rd/4th place finish as a steady, keeps coming performer.

TEDDY'S PROMISE feels like the real speed bias test for tomorrow. I think she's the quickest in this race and should be on the lead, but with the others I mentioned not letting her off easy, we could see a repeat of last year where she ran the first half mile in 44 seconds flat and faded to eighth.

DANCE CARD is very interesting in her second race back after a nearly year-long break after winning the G1 Gazelle last November. And although she didn't show much pace in her last race, she was brushed at the gate, and she led in her starts at three, so she may be closer than her running style alone would show.

GROUPIE DOLL is impossible to look past, obviously. She's only 1-for-3 this year, but she hasn't been the beneficiary of good pace scenarios. I don't think she's what she was last year, but she's still a deserving favorite here.

STARSHIP TRUFFLES is my pick in this one. Her Princess Rooney win was the best race any of these have run this year, and she's had trouble in her last two starts. From the 3 hole, I expect her to go to the lead with TEDDY'S PROMISE, only I think she has more stamina. The worry is that the other speed horses break better and she gets stuck behind horses, but at a 15-1 morning line, that's worth the risk.

THE PLAY: $10 win-place-show on STARSHIP TRUFFLES ($30). $1 exacta box on STARSHIP TRUFFLES-GROUPIE DOLL-DANCE CARD-SWEET LULU ($12). Total bet = $42.

Turf Sprint: There's really a surprising lack of speed in this race, which gives the speed horse RENEESGOTZIP a huge edge here. Last year in this race, the early pace was hot and she was in fourth after the first call and third after the second call. She ultimately finished third, but she should be able to do it all her own way on the front end this time. I do expect TIGHTEND TOUCHDOWN to go early, but he doesn't bother me at all -- he hasn't run at this level, nor does he seem to be able to stretch his speed beyond five flat furlongs.

CAPO BASTONE was my "hunch" pick, but without any pace and in his first run on this tricky course, he actually almost seems like an underlay at an 8/1 ML. That said, he's going to come flying late and he should actually move forward on turf according to the pedigree stats, so I won't leave him off.

I actually have as surprisingly dim view of MIZDIRECTION here. She's obviously a master of this turf course and the defending champ, but she ran that race so differently than any of her other races. She was 11th and eight lengths back in that one, but has never been closer than three lengths back in any of her other tries. If you throw that out, her figures just don't look that great compared to the others here. I'll play against and tip my hat if she wins. I also will be looking past UNBRIDLED'S NOTE for that very reason -- I think there are some other classier competitors trying this course that are bigger prices, so why not take a shot.

SPRING TO THE SKY is tricky since he has run his last two races with a lot of pace, bucking what had been his style in the past. I'm leaving him off my tickets due to his poor performance in graded races in the past -- he's 0-for-4 with a third, a fifth, and a pair of ninth-place finishes.

CARACORTADO seems to be a "wise guy" pick, and while I think he'll be overbet, if he gets a faster pace than I anticipate, he might well be the one to beat.

Of all the horses that have run on this turf course, CHIPS ALL IN is the most interesting to me. I still don't think he's a great contender, but his running style might suit very well if things go a bit faster than expected up front. HAVELOCK is one that I don't really love as there are a lot of questions, but he's my top closer and seems likely to get a piece unless he runs out of gas at 6.5 furlongs.

People have almost been laughing at JERANIMO for trying this race, but he did win the G1 Eddie Read in July and this is an easier spot than that, so 12-1 seems really generous to me. I don't necessarily like the artficial and dirt tries in his last two, but getting back to turf should be a big upgrade for him.

THE PLAY: $4 win-place-show on RENEESGOTZIP and JERANIMO ($24). $1 exacta box on RENEESGOTZIP-JERANIMO-HAVELOCK-CARACORTADO-CAPO BASTONE ($20). Total bet = $44.

Juvenile: As biased as the track was today, you still didn't necessarily want to be ON the lead. You wanted to be near the pace, but leading was not necessarily a winning strategy (with GOLDENCENTS being the exception, although that was possibly just a case of the best horse winning -- not a bias). Since I don't have an interest in betting on any horse that has only won ON the lead at the second call because this pace will be absolutely scintillating, here's the list of horses I'll consider at all: BOND HOLDER, MEDAL COUNT, SMARTY'S ECHO, STRONG MANDATE, TAP IT RICH, WE MISS ARTIE.

I don't want to necessarily toss all of the horses that can only win on the lead, but they all generally seem like a crapshoot and they're just not efficient betting options.

WE MISS ARTIE has just been slow and has won by crawling down the stretch at KEENELAND and sitting right on top of the pace in a slowly run turf race. MEDAL COUNT has also run slow figs.

STRONG MANDATE never got into the Champagne, finishing a well-beaten seventh. He only won on the lead of a slow race and in the slop, so I'll pass here.

SMARTY'S ECHO got beat by WE MISS ARTIE in his last, but he's one that you would expect to run better on the dirt and he has only run on the fake stuff. Still, he would have to jump up a lot to be a contender here.

TAP IT RICH was off slow before advancing throughout to win, so he may actually have more speed than he showed in his last. He takes a big class hike here but as a $510,000 purchase, this is where he belongs. Interesting option. BOND HOLDER also looks worthwhile. as the winner of the Grade 1 Front Runner here. Both of these are suitable closers because they've already dealt with the Santa Anita kickback that's supposedly so nasty.

In the search for early speed types, I only wanted those that could win while setting a fast pace: HAVANA and NEW YEAR'S DAY. DIAMOND BACHELOR does actually also qualify, but I'll be surprised if he's as good on dirt as he was on turf.

Two late speed and two early speed horses smells like a tri to me.

THE PLAY: $1 exacta/$0.50 trifecta boxes on TAP IT RICH-BOND HOLDER-HAVANA-NEW YEAR'S DAY. Total bet = $24.

Turf:

The more I looked at this race, the more it became clear to me that THE FUGUE is an absolute standout. LITTLE MIKE may actually get the same type of trip he did last year with SKYRING in the race, but that seems more unlikely than not. POINT OF ENTRY is no doubt the best America has to offer, he has been off since June 8. He ran well in a 1 3/8 mile race off a layoff back in July 2012, but he beat CENTER DIVIDER and TAHOE LAKE that day. This field is better than that by, well, a lot.

BIG BLUE KITTEN, INDY POINT, REAL SOLUTION and VAGABOND SHOES all seem equally as likely to make some noise down the stretch. I'd be hard pressed to separate them.

So, I won't.

THE PLAY: $20 to win-place-show on THE FUGUE. Total bet = $60.

*****NOTE: I'm actually going to wait on handicapping the final three races until I can see how the track bias situation looks -- it's going to have a pretty large impact on who I play in the sprint for sure, and likely the Classic to an extent, as well.*****

OK, the speed bias seems somewhat lessened but still a small factor, so more or less how I began the day's capping. Here goes:

Sprint:

These are sprint horses, obviously, so it's impossible to assume this pace will be a truly slow pace, particularly with the speed bias. That said, I don't think it's going to be absolutely boiling on the front end.

Either way, JUSTIN PHILLIP is impossible to ignore as the best off the pace horse, if not just the best horse in the race. This doesn't strike me as the classiest bunch to ever run in the Sprint, and his keep-coming style, while at odds with the bias and likely not a great win bet, seems almost a cinch to hit the trifecta.

My easy tosses: TRINNIBERG (not the same as he was, even at his best this year), WINE POLICE (just literally see no way), MAJESTIC STRIDE (early speed type that doesn't seem to have enough early speed for these), THE LUMBER GUY (lots of issues here), FAST BULLET (not the same in Lukas' barn), BAHAMIAN SQUALL (just doesn't seem quite good enough to win against these with just 4-of-14 lifetime record).

I'm really having an impossible time with the final six. SUM OF THE PARTS and PRIVATE ZONE are the two pace factors I like, and I think PRIVATE ZONE is likely better, but he's 3-1 and SUM OF THE PARTS is 12-1. I want to include both.

SECRET CIRCLE has boundless potential to rout these and has to be considered even if I think his last race was a cut below what he needs to win. JUSTIN PHILIP, as mentioned, would have to be included.

Finally, we come to LAUGH TRACK and GENTLEMEN'S BET. GENTLEMEN'S BET would be tough to leave out because he has the tactical speed to sit right behind the pace and move by in the stretch. LAUGH TRACK is the second-longest shot in this field, but I see something here. In his lone start on actual dirt, he was fourth in the extremely classy Alysheba going 1 1/16 miles, which I don't think is his best distance. He should really move forward on the dirt as opposed to all-weather, too, so I'm willing to take a shot at 20-1.

I'm going to wait to see the will pays to decide which direction below I'm going.

THE PLAY:Exacta or superfecta box of SUM OF THE PARTS-PRIVATE ZONE-SECRET CIRCLE-JUSTIN PHILIP-GENTLEMEN'S BET-LAUGH TRACK. NOTE: The payoffs look plenty juicy for most of these exacta combinations since SECRET CIRCLE is a headscratchingly strong favorite, so I'm actually playing the exacta and dumping SECRET CIRCLE from the superfecta and going for a monster payoff if he runs out of the top four.

Mile:

SILVER MAX, OBVIOUSLY and BRIGHT THOUGHT. Those three are probably going to go at it on the lead. I can't dismiss SILVER MAX or OBVIOUSLY, though -- those are two that seem to thrive the faster they go. BRIGHT THOUGHT off the massive layoff would be a pretty big shocker.

Some of these are easy tosses: HE BE FIRE N ICE, NO JET LAG CRISTOFORO COLOMBO and SILENTIO.

The rest? WISE DAN, obviously, should win ... but I don't consider him a no-brainer. Either one of the two speed horses mentioned above could get away and be gone, and OLYMPIC GLORY is world-class.

And all of that is ignoring ZA APPROVAL. I don't know enough about OLYMPIC GLORY to know if he's really a late horse or a mid-packer, but ZA APPROVAL is the best horse that's most likely to benefit from a hot early pace. I don't LOVE this horse, but he should be coming late and seems very likely to hit the board.

THE PLAY: $4 WPS on ZA APPROVAL ($12). $1 exacta box on SILVER MAX-OBVIOUSLY-WISE DAN-OLYMPIC GLORY-ZA APPROVAL ($20). $0.10 superfecta box on the same ($12).

Classic:

Here we go. THE BIG ONE.

Given the track bias, I expect FORT LARNED, GAME ON DUDE and MORENO to definitely be gunning for the lead, and you may even see somewhat surprising factors like PAYNTER and MUCHO MACHO MAN.

From a pure pace and track dynamic standpoint, the horses that can sit just a bit off the pace and then go get extra consideration from me. FLAT OUT, PALACE MALICE and MUCHO MACHO MAN seem like these types, but again, MUCHO MACHO MAN was right on FORT LARNED's flank last year, so he may be more forwardly placed.

What's tough is that the race shape and dynamic are really in opposition to the track bias -- I would normally look for closers here, but even though they closed in the Juvenile, these horses are classy and they don't quit.

I'm a little surprised, but FORT LARNED looks like he'll be my win bet. He has to be on the lead to win, but the good news is that I think he is clearly the fastest and will be. MORENO will be his toughest competition for that lead, but I literally do not think GAME ON DUDE can get the lead. I would include him in exotics, but I don't think he's a good win bet.

Should the pace collapse like I think there's a good likelihood it will, MUCHO MACHO MAN does seem to be the best play as he should sit in the second tier and always comes with his run down the lane. FLAT OUT never seems to disappoint, but I will try to play against him today. LAST GUNFIGHTER lacks the class and speed. PAYNTER would be a great story, but he hasn't ever done anything that makes me think he belongs at this topmost level.

I don't like WILL TAKE CHARGE much, but he's the one closing type that I think has a real shot. Meanwhile, PALACE MALICE is just ultra consistent and should sit that beautiful trip.

People are ignoring PLANTEUR in favor of DECLARATION OF WAR, and it's easy to see why. If you had to pick one, you would pick DECLARATION OF WAR. Based on the speed bias, though, and a tidbit I read about DECLARATION OF WAR not handling kickback when he was in America, I'm not sure I want either on my tickets.

I'm really trying to show some restraint in betting this race. I just don't have a strong feeling about this at all, and the horses I want to root for, I would be inclined to bet against. Stay tuned for my play!

THE PLAY: Well, my numbers tell me FORT LARNED, and while my brain says he's going to have a wicked trip on the front end, I'm willing to take that shot at the astronomical price of 13-1. Honestly, how he's 13-1 and GAME ON DUDE is 9-5 is mind-boggling. I'll also bet MUCHO MACHO MAN based on the trip I expect him to get. $10 Win-Place on FORT LARNED and MUCHO MACHO MAN ($40). And, well, it's the Breeders' Cup Classic, so I'll try to hit the super: MUCHO MACHO MAN-FORT LARNED-PALACE MALICE-GAME ON DUDE-WILL TAKE CHARGE. I don't feel great about leaving out MORENO (so gritty, but I think this level is too much for him) or FLAT OUT (he's always coming late, but the bias might be too much for him here), but it's worth the $12 stab in the dark. Finally, I'll give MUCHO MACHO MAN-FORT LARNED-PALACE MALICE a $2 exacta box shot.

$64 is pretty light for me in a race like the Breeders' Cup Classic, but I just don't have a great feel for this race. Should be fun regardless!

2013 Breeders' Cup Friday

It's finally here — the best two days of racing all year.

CLOSE HATCHES is my pick to
upset the Breeders' Cup Distaff.

This will be plenty long as it is, so there's no need to get too lengthy in the preamble. For previous writings about this year's Breeders' Cup, click here and here. Here's my breakdown of the five Breeders' Cup races on Friday:

Marathon: I see a good deal of speed in this race. After taking a closer look, I'm pretty much ready to dismiss my initial thought of OLD TIME HOCKEY in this one. Between exiting a turf race and nothing a lifetime top in that turf race, I just don't know that he's worth the risk. COMMANDER is my top early speed selection, but I think he'll have plenty of company up top. WORLDY is my overall top pick due to his recent performances and getting beaten by FORT LARNED, PRAYER FOR RELIEF and GOLDEN TICKET in his last three. I really don't like POOL PLAY, INDIAN JONES or CEASE. BLUESKIESNRAINBOWS is sort of interesting, and I really have no idea what to make of LONDON BRIDGE or EVER RIDER. Yeah, so ... I am really just grasping at straws here. It's completely inscrutable. When you ask a random allotment of horses to run further than they ever have on a surface they may not be familiar with, how do you predict what happens?!? I'm tempted to try a WORLDLY-EVER RIDER-COMMANDER-SUNS OUT GUNS OUT-BLUESKIESNRAINBOWS superfecta, but then I think about POOL PLAY and INDIAN JONES coming late and getting a piece ... and, really, forget getting cute or betting this one too hard.

THE PLAY: $4 to win/place/show on WORDLY (insanely light, but really, I just don't have much of a feeling on this!) I'll also play a $1 exacta box of WORDLY, COMMANDER, SUNS OUT GUNS OUT and EVER RIDER. Why not. Total bet: $24

Juvenile Turf: This race, on the other hand, looks pretty slow to me on the front end. In other words, I think it will be run very much like a European turf race, which I think clearly favors the Euros -- as if they weren't already fairly clearly better. GIOVANI BOLDINI looks quite dangerous here, as does OUTSTRIP. Gun to my head, I would take OUTSTRIP of these two -- but narrowly. Due to the pace dynamic, BOBBY'S KITTEN may just obliterate this field. He was right on a blistering pace in the G3 Pilgrim, but that was no worry ... he just kept right on going, and I don't think the cutback in distance will hurt him any. I don't know that BON ACCORD will necessarily win, but I do like him to run better than what many might expect. He has only been on the turf once, a win at 5 furlongs in the Calder Dash at odds of 46-1. He's 20-1 on the morning line and could spice up my exotics.

THE PLAY: $1 Exacta and $.50 trifecta box with BOBBY'S KITTEN-BON ACCORD-OUTSTRIP-GIOVANI BOLDINI ($12 and $12); $4 Win-place-show on BON ACCORD. Total bet: $36

Dirt Mile: I think the pace here will be quite fast, although perhaps not quite blistering, whereas he has it between moderate and soft, while his late speed rating average is only "fair." I mentioned in an earlier thoughts post that I think this race is fantastic, and after running my numbers on it, I have not changed my position on that whatsoever. I'm comfortable throwing out the following right away: ALPHA (hasn't won without a slow pace and/or sloppy track), CENTRALINTELIGENCE (not sure why he would choose this race instead of the sprint; mile seems too far for him), FED BIZ (hasn't been good enough at this level), HOLY LUTE (stepping up too far in class).

But I really should come at this race first from a different perspective. VERRAZANO is an absolute standout when I laid out all of the numbers. He has both the best early and sustained pace, and he's my clear-cut winner. 

The worry, of course, is that they go too fast up front, so that's why I'm going to look a little bit deeper. PANTS ON FIRE and GOLDENCENTS both have shown the capability of coming from a bit off the pace, and GOLDEN TICKET is my top late running horse. I was actually pretty surprised at this, but I can make a much better case for him than HYMN BOOK. 

The horses I'm really struggling with are: BROADWAY EMPIRE, BRUJO DE OLLEROS and TAPTOWNE. I'm pretty comfortable tossing BROADWAY EMPIRE and TAPTOWNE overall -- I think they're the speed of the speed, and it would really take a herculean effort to go as fast as I think they will and still hold on since they're both taking steps up in class. That said, TAPTOWNE has run triple-digit figures in 6 of his last 8 starts and always seems to hang around for a piece. BRUJO DE OLLEROS is the most difficult because he really hasn't had a suitable running line to compare against the likely pace dynamic of this race. I don't think he can win, but he can certainly run into the exotics.

THE PLAY: $10 VERRAZANO to win/place/show ($30); exacta/trifecta box VERRAZANO-GOLDENCENTS-PANTS ON FIRE-GOLDEN TICKET ($12 and $12); those four on top and boxed below with TAPTOWNE and BRUJO DE OLLEROS in a superfecta ($12 24 ). 

(UPDATE: TAPTOWNE has scratched, so just including BRUJO DE OLLEROS in that super for a $12 bet. Total bet: $66)

Juvenile Fillies Turf: This just smells like another absolute blanket finish with the strongest late kick winning. That smells like another recipe for a Euro to win if you ask me, although I wouldn't ignore a frontrunner getting loose and holding on if I can find one.

And guess what? I did. I found two, actually -- NESSO and READY TO ACT. NESSO has set fairly quick paces in her last two starts yet has held on for second-place finishes to CLENOR. If she doesn't have to run so fast this time, I like her chances. Then there's READY TO ACT, who I think will be a good price after bolting in her last and dumping her rider while two lengths in front in the stretch. 

The Euros are almost impossible for me to separate. AL THAKIRA seems like an open book -- she has won 2-of-2, with one of those field being very high quality, but who knows. CHRISELLIAM won her last at a higher class than any American by far. I'd rather have her than VORDA, who has never run a full mile, but she seems really tough, too. 

TESTA ROSSI is the one American closer (former Euro herself) that I like because she closed strongly into a slow pace to win her last. 

THE PLAY: $1 Exacta box NESSO-READY TO ACT-AL THAKIRA-CHRISELLIAM-VORDA-TESTA ROSSI (seems kind of silly to box up six horses in the exacta, but I don't really want to leave any of them out, and the costs of some of the other exotics get prohibitive with that many horses). Total bet: $30

Distaff:  It's pretty clear right off the bat that STREET GIRL is extremely outclassed, and she has never run beyond 1 1/16 miles. But I can almost make a case for her -- only beaten two lengths in the Cotillion after stumbling at the start and only beaten 1 3/4 lengths in the Ballerina despite a slow pace. She hasn't ever ran a better speed figure than 96 on a fast track, and that's just about the equivalent of ROYAL DELTA's worst race, ever. STREET GIRL will not win, but I do think she may close into a slow pace and get a piece.

AUTHENTICITY seems to be getting some talk as a darkhorse in this one, but I don't really see it. She has been soundly defeated by BEHOLDER and ROYAL DELTA in her last two starts without any real excuse -- she sat right off of each and just couldn't produce the required run to go by in the stretch. 

BEHOLDER has run huge in the past, and is 5-of-6 at Santa Anita. But she really hasn't beaten anyone beyond AUTHENTICITY, and when she has been pressed to fractions above the par, she's only batting 1-for-3. I don't know what kind of odds she'll go off at, but they'll be too low for me to consider.

PRINCESS OF SYLMAR has the look of a horse that should have taken the rest of the year off as originally planned. After winning the Beldame, that's what everyone assumed was in store ... but then the connections changed course and decided to run her after all. What's interesting with her is that she has this perception of being well off the pace, but really she has been within four lengths at the first call in every race but the Oaks, and within 2.5 lengths at the second call in every race but her debut. That's not necessarily bad, but food for thought when you consider her being close to a fast, fast pace. What really has me against her here is just the intent -- she already looked "over the top" in the Beldame based on a 99 speed fig, and I just wonder if she really wants another race against these. I'll bet against at a low prices as one of the "big three."

If I had to bet one of the favorites, ROYAL DELTA would be it. At her best, she'll blow this field away. If she's anywhere near even money, I'll bet on her to win-place-show. She's just the best there is.

But the horse nobody is talking about is her barnmate CLOSE HATCHES. She beat PRINCESS OF SYLMAR at this distance back in April, and after poor showings in the Kentucky Oaks and Acorn, she bounced back to dominate the Mother Goose and Cotillion. The speed figs are unremarkable, but with five wins and a second in seven starts, she should be primed for a big step up in her second off a layoff in the fall of her 3-year-old year. She likes to sit just a bit off the pace, too, so she may be in that proverbial garden spot. 

The final piece is the trainer intent. Two trainers have two horses in this race -- Todd Pletcher has PRINCESS OF SYLMAR and AUTHENTICITY, while Bill Mott has CLOSE HATCHES and ROYAL DELTA. For everything I just said about ROYAL DELTA possibly not being fully cranked in her last race, I don't think Mott would run CLOSE HATCHES here if he didn't think she had a real shot. And, likewise, I don't think Pletcher would necessarily run AUTHENTICITY if he thought there was no chance she would beat PRINCESS OF SYLMAR. So, I think there's real reason to be skeptical of the chances of the two best horses in here, and I like CLOSE HATCHES better than AUTHENTICITY -- I just think the ceiling is higher.

And she'll be a good price.

THE PLAY: $10 CLOSE HATCHES to win-place-show, $2 wheel CLOSE HATCHES with the field in the exacta ($20) and $.50 trifecta wheel ($30). Total bet: $80