One thing I learned my lesson on after last year's Breeders' Cup -- seriously, I swear I learned my lesson this time -- is that you don't have to hunt for a price in the Breeders' Cup. If you think you have the winner pegged, go with it, and you're likely to get plenty of price for your trouble. I passed on betting TRINNIBERG and MIZDIRECTION because I thought they were underlays at the price they were bet down to. Well, those two winning would have paid for the rest of my missteps, so I'm keeping that as my No. 1 rule for myself this year: Don't try to get too cute.
I have some knee-jerk thoughts to each race that I'll share here before I delve more fully into my handicapping process later this week:
Marathon: Based mostly on pedigree, I think OLD TIME HOCKEY deserves a shot here at what's likely to be a price. He has only run once on dirt, but he should love the extra distance and should really be just as good on dirt as he has been on turf ... which isn't great, but he doesn't need to be great. WORLDLY would be my second choice, but I just think OLD TIME HOCKEY will like the distance more. POOL PLAY is pseudo-interesting as the clear class of the field, but he hasn't won in more than a year.
Juvenile Turf: Too indiscernible/too many Euros to comment on without a further look. I will say, however, that BON ACCORD looks interesting at what is likely to be a price.
Dirt Mile: GOLDENCENTS seems to be the "wise guy" pick and I think there's a good chance he goes off as favored, but I just feel like this race is tailor made for VERRAZANO. He has been nothing short of brilliant in the majority of his races, and his only two losses have come at 1.25 miles. PANTS ON FIRE could not be coming in looking any better. I could make an argument for a lot of horses in here, so I plan on just keeping it simple and rolling with VERRAZANO. I do think, however, that this race may stack up extremely well for HYMN BOOK. He's the only true closer in this race and it may set up very well for him.
Juvenile Fillies Turf: I need to look at this one, too, but I will say for sure that I am looking to play against MY CONQUESTADORY. She was somehow hailed as a potential great after her last and I just didn't see it at all. It looked OK but was absolutely not jaw-dropping by any means.
Distaff: Well, it's pretty impossible to make a case for STREET GIRL, and AUTHENTICITY has been beaten fairly convincingly by ROYAL DELTA and BEHOLDER in her last two, but I find the other four fairly inseparable. BEHOLDER would be my fourth choice because *most* of her wins have been after establishing relatively easy leads, and I don't think ROYAL DELTA will let her get that. PRINCESS OF SYLMAR would be my third choice -- yes, she has beaten both ROYAL DELTA and BEHOLDER, but BEHOLDER had to run very fast early in the Oaks and still almost held on (this was her best race in my opinion), and ROYAL DELTA was well below her established best in their last-out for whatever reason. ROYAL DELTA is my second choice because we don't really know why she ran so poorly last-out. The odds are that she wasn't cranked fully and will bounce back in a big way, but it's a question mark. My pick, at this moment, is CLOSE HATCHES. She beat PRINCESS OF SYLMAR in the Gazelle before stepping up in class and failing in the Oaks, beaten 10 lengths. She had a rough trip in the Acorn before bouncing back to trounce a tough field in the Mother Goose, took a break, and came back with a nice effort in winning the Cotillion. My general concern would be that she's not at her best at 1 1/8 miles, but she took the Gazelle wire to wire at the distance, so as the fourth or even fifth choice here, I like her to move forward in the second race off the layoff for Bill Mott.
Saturday:
Juvenile Fillies: I need to look more closely, but SECRET COMPASS and UNTAPABLE seem like horses who can win from slightly off the pace, so they're my knee-jerk picks.
Filly & Mare Turf: DANK looked awesome in winning the Beverly D, but I think this will be a slow-paced race that won't set up as well for her. The stars might just be aligned for LAUGHING as she could walk on the lead once more and win this thing, but ALTERITE, ROMANTICA and TIZ FLIRTATIOUS all seem dangerous to me. TIZ FLIRTATIOUS was particularly impressive mowing down horses in her last despite a slowly paced race. I am not a MARKETING MIX believer at this point -- she had no excuse for not holding off TIZ FLIRTATIOUS in the last and just got overwhelmed.
Filly & Mare Sprint: For a sprint race, there's a surprising lack of speed. And I didn't really realize how underwhelming this race is overall. I actually think I have to go back to GROUPIE DOLL getting back on dirt at a sprint distance -- she hasn't run something fitting that description since her tour de force last fall in the Breeders' Cup, and I think she'll be close enough to take advantage of a slow-ish pace. SWEET LULU seems like the other big threat to me -- I don't think TEDDY'S PROMISE has the class here.
Turf Sprint: I need to look at this more closely, but I feel like the maxim that horses who have run well on the Santa Anita course do well again is so well-known that there HAS to be value in going against that. I'd rather play UNBRIDLED'S NOTE than MIZDIRECTION despite her 6-for-6 record, but I kind of like CAPO BASTONE ... I don't think Pletcher would bother running him here as his first time on turf if he didn't have a pretty good feeling about it.
Juvenile: BOND HOLDER, CLEBURNE and TAP IT RICH are the knee-jerk reactions because they will be COOKING up front. The rest of these horses (with the exception of WE MISS ARTIE, who I think should be in the juvenile turf to have a shot) haven't won without the lead at the second call, so to ask them to do it today seems insane to me.
Turf: This is a fantastic race. That's my first thought. THE FUGUE and POINT OF ENTRY are obviously the favorites, but LITTLE MIKE again appears to have a tactical speed advantage. I also think INDY POINT has plenty more to show us, and MAGICIAN is intriguing as a 3-year-old import. I literally have no idea on this one at this point.
Sprint: It sucks that POINTSOFFTHEBENCH had to be euthanized last weekend -- I thought he was a very deserving favorite. As it is, this group is just going to murder each other on the front end. BAHAMIAN SQUALL seems potentially OK. JUSTIN PHILLIP is the obvious off-the-pace choice, but he's more of an exotics player to me -- he always seems to just not quite get there. Someone closer up always seems to run a bit bigger. SECRET CIRCLE is intriguing, but you have to wonder if that first effort back off the layoff just two weeks ago took too much out of him. A bullet work last week would indicate not, but I don't know. I don't think TRINNIBERG is a smart play this year.
Mile: The Euros don't impress me much here. SILVER MAX ran huge last-out to beat WISE DAN, but he'll have to contend with OBVIOUSLY on the front end, and frankly, he just hasn't been a great turf miler. WISE DAN will be heavily favored, but deservedly so.
Classic: I have extensive thoughts on basically every horse here, but I'll save that for the full preview. As for now, I think GAME ON DUDE is a very deserving favorite, but FORT LARNED's presence inside of him means he'll want the lead and that's scary. GAME ON DUDE has been more consistent, but FORT LARNED has been more brilliantly fast, and who knows what happens with those two if they hook up ... and, hey, MORENO is in there as well. Scary stuff on the front end. And the way PAYNTER was worked yesterday made me also wonder what his strategy will be (he was sent in front of a workmate ... kind of bizarre in my eyes, actually). I have two initial thoughts: MUCHO MACHO MAN and DECLARATION OF WAR. I've been a MUCHO MACHO MAN detractor ever since the 2011 Triple Crown, but I finally bet on him in his last race and he delivered his first Grade 1 win. He was so close last year and I don't think he could be doing much better right now as far as I can tell. I think DECLARATION OF WAR is extremely dangerous. He's an American bred horse and while I do think he's likely better on turf, he should love the distance and he has won 3-of-3 starts on all-weather surfaces. I don't want to violate my own "just pick the winner" rule, but I can't overlook him in any exotics for sure.
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