With three experienced running backs and the bulk of the offensive line returning for Minnesota's football team this season, the expectation was that the Gophers would go only as far as young quarterback Tanner Morgan could take them.
As the upstart 8-0 squad prepares for its Game of the Century this Saturday at home against 8-0 Penn State, it remains up to Morgan -- only for a different reason than expected.
Morgan and his three future NFL wideouts (Tyler Johnson, Rashod Bateman and Chris Autman-Bell) have been the clear bright spot for a team that has struggled running the ball from time to time -- a struggle that's likely to rear its head against a Penn State run defense that has allowed just 3.19 yards per rush against teams that typically average 4.65 yards per rush. With Minnesota's rushing attack looking barely above average at 5.02 yards per rush against teams that typically allow 4.77 yards per rush, it's hard to see the Gophers clearing 4 yards per rush (The Chalice projects 3.72 yards per rush).
With tough sledding likely in the ground game, it's the passing game that Minnesota will need to be the difference maker. It's no secret that the Gophers haven't played a tough schedule to date, and Gophers opponents have typically given up 7.28 yards per pass play. But the Gophers have solidly exceeded that mark, averaging 8.95 yards per pass play. Meanwhile, although Penn State has played a much tougher schedule overall, they've actually faced a very weak schedule in regard to the passing game: their opponents have averaged just 5.65 yards per pass play. This is nearly a yard below the NCAA average as a whole, and it's no surprise when you think of the offensive statistics even generally "good" Penn State opponents like Iowa, Michigan State and Michigan have put up this year (not to mention Maryland, Purdue, Pittsburgh, Buffalo and Idaho).
While Penn State has allowed just 4.84 yards per pass to those teams (and as such rank fifth in passer rating allowed; coincidentally, Minnesota is fourth), it's clear that Minnesota's passing offense is unlike anything the Nittany Lions have faced in the past.
It's for that reason that the Gophers fans have reason to be hopeful against one of the top teams in the country.
While the stats overall are surely in favor of the Nittany Lions to win -- The Chalice projects 4.56 yards per rush and 7.7 yards per pass for Penn State to just 3.72 yards per rush and 7.34 yards per pass for Minnesota (full detail: Penn State averages 4.46 yards per rush against teams that allow 4.09 while Minnesota D allows 4.27 to teams that average 5.03; 7.4 yards per pass vs. teams that allow 5.87 yards per pass while Minnesota D allows 4.59 yards per pass vs. teams that average an almost impossibly poor 4.9 yards per pass) -- this is the biggest game Minnesota football has played in most people's lifetimes.
And it's at home. At 11 a.m. on what promises to be a crisp fall Saturday in Minneapolis. While Minnesota football fans have decades of PTSD from letdowns in big games, coach PJ Fleck's schtick-y yet inspiring ROW THE BOAT mantra has people believing that this year might finally be the one.
Prediction: ROW THE BOAT
Prediction: Minnesota 28, Penn State 27
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