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| Although everyone seems ready to hand the Breeders' Cup Classic to UNCLE MO or HAVRE DE GRACE, TO HONOR AND SERVE is my pick in the sport's biggest race. |
It started off perfectly with SECRET CIRCLE topping SHUMOOS for a nice $28 exacta winner, but it got ugly from there.
The Euros failed to fire in the Juvi Fillies Turf as STEPHANIE'S KITTEN got up to score, and then MUSICAL ROMANCE ran huge to win the F&M Sprint ahead of my bet, the second place SWITCH, quickly submarining my Pick 4 in the first leg.
The Juvi Fillies went basically according to plan ... other than the fact that I DID take a stand against MY MISS AURELIA, who won ahead of my bets of GRACE HALL and WEEMISSFRANKIE.
Then PERFECT SHIRL pulled another huge upset in the F&M Turf ahead of my bet NAHRAIN.
Finally, ROYAL DELTA reeled in my bet IT'S TRICKY despite the latter getting first run.
In short, I had the second place horse in the final four races. Sonofa ...
Anyway, we move on. Saturday boasts a sick nine-race card that I remain extremely excited about despite today's less than stellar results.
Let's review Saturday's schedule (all times in CST):
(Dirt) Marathon -- 1 3/4 miles -- 12:20 p.m. -- TBD
Juvenile Turf -- 1 mile -- 1:02 p.m. -- ABC
(Dirt) Sprint -- 6 furlongs -- 1:37 p.m. -- ABC
Turf Sprint -- 5 furlongs -- 2:21 p.m. -- ABC
Dirt Mile -- 1 mile -- 3:01 p.m. -- ESPN
Turf -- 1 1/2 miles -- 3:45 p.m. -- ESPN
(Dirt) Juvenile -- 1 1/16 miles -- 4:25 p.m. -- ESPN
(Turf) Mile -- 1 mile -- 5:07 pm. -- ESPN
(Dirt) Classic -- 1 1/4 miles -- 6 p.m. -- ESPN
Breeders' Cup Marathon
1 Birdrun John Velazquez William I. Mott 7/2
2 Baryshnikov Mike Smith Michael J. Maker 12/1
3 Meeznah Tom Queally David Lanigan 12/1
4 Pleasant Prince Joel Rosario Wesley A. Ward 12/1
5 Giant Oak Shaun Bridgmohan Chris M. Block 9/2
6 Brigantin Julien Leparoux Andre Fabre 8/1
7 Harrison's Cave (GB) Ryan Moore Aidan P. O'Brien 30/1
8 Afleet Again Cornelio Velasquez Robert E. Reid Jr. 30/1
9 Cease Garrett Gomez Albert M. Stall Jr. 6/1
10 Eldaafer Javier Castellano Diane Alvarado 10/1
11 A. U. Miner Calvin Borel Clark Hanna 3/1
While this race has often been kind of a joke in past years, I'm actually fairly impressed with this year's field.
BIRDRUN has run well at distances of 1 1/4+ miles this year, claiming a win in the 1 1/2 mile Brooklyn and another win at 1 1/2 miles after A.U. MINER was disqualified in the Greenwood. I'm guessing 1 3/4 will be too much for him, though -- the pedigree suggests it, although, to be fair, the pedigree also suggests 1 1/2 would be too long.
The Euros can all run all day, but you're asking a lot for grass horses to handle kickback for the first time. Additionally, great closing speed is usually nullified at longer distances.
PLEASANT PRINCE is a horse a lot seem to like -- but he hasn't finished better than 9th in races longer than 1 1/8 and there's no guarantee he'll run to his distance-loving pedigree.
CEASE looked solid stretching out to 1 1/4 for the first time and fits the mid-pack profile that won this race last year. He should enjoy the extra distance and remains eligible to improve in just his seventh career start.
ELDAAFER, last year's winner of this event, seems to offer value at 10/1. The biggest concern is his potential fitness after sitting on the sidelines for 56 days and not running more than 1 1/2 miles since June.
A.U. MINER is probably a deserving favorite but only ran three times all year, finishing fifth in two of those races and DQ'ing in the one race he did win due to medication issues.
Summary: CEASE was supplemented to this field and, considering that means that the connections dropped $100k to enter him, they must feel pretty good about his chances. I do, too. At such a weird distance, anything can happen, so I'm just betting CEASE to win and being done with it.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf
2 Fantastic Song Javier Castellano Chad C. Brown 20/1
3 Shkspeare Shaliyah Alex Solis Doodnauth Shivmangal 15/1
4 Farraaj (IRE) Neil Callan Roger Varian 15/1
5 Wrote (IRE) Ryan Moore Aidan P. O'Brien 12/1
6 Coalport Junior Alvarado Wayne M. Catalano 15/1
7 Caspar Netscher (GB) Kieran Fallon Alan McCabe 6/1
8 Majestic City Garrett Gomez Peter Miller 4/1
9 Daddy Nose Best Julien Leparoux Steven M. Asmussen 30/1
10 Animal Spirits Robby Albarado Albert M. Stall Jr. 8/1
11 Excaper Emma-Jayne Wilson Ian Black 30/1
12 Lucky Chappy (IRE) Joel Rosario H. Graham Motion 10/1
13 Finale John Velazquez Todd A. Pletcher 5/1
14 State of Play Ramon Dominguez H. Graham Motion 5/1
15 Tequila Factor Rafael Bejarano Wayne M. Catalano 30/1
Of the Euros, only CASPAR NETSCHER seems at all worthy of consideration. Seems iffy since he hasn't ever run at more than 6 furlongs, though the pedigree doesn't indicate this might be an issue.
MAJESTIC CITY is the morning line favorite despite never running on turf and not specifically seeming like any sort of turf monster in waiting. This sounds like a fine bet against.
ANIMAL SPIRTS won the G3 Bourbon his last out and has been training strongly in the morning. Might be a bit too short for him to be at his best, though.
FINALE would be a relatively easy pick if not breaking from post 13. Has won three straight -- two at the mile distance -- and showed the capacity to rate just off the pace in the last contest.
STATE OF PLAY is 2-for-2 in his career and beat a stronger field than others in a G2 on Sept. 1, but the speed figs have been awfully low.
Summary: All of my main contenders are breaking from out wide, which is a tough ask at this mile distance at Churchill. Therefore, I have to introduce COALPORT breaking from post 6. Beaten just half a length by ANIMAL SPIRTS in his last out, he was a winner in his debut in September. Appears green and has had "lackluster a.m. preps" according to the workout analysis, but his running style and the spot appears to fit. I would otherwise opt for FINALE ahead of the late-running ANIMAL SPIRITS.
Breeders' Cup Sprint
1 Euroears Rafael Bejarano Bob Baffert 4/1
2 Giant Ryan Cornelio Velasquez Bisnath Parbhoo 8/1
3 Aikenite Javier Castellano Todd A. Pletcher 8/1
4 Hamazing Destiny Robby Albarado D. Wayne Lukas 10/1
5 Jackson Bend Corey Nakatani Nicholas P. Zito 7/2
6 Force Freeze John Velazquez Peter R. Walder 10/1
7 Amazombie Mike Smith William Spawr 5/1
8 Big Drama Ramon Dominguez David Fawkes 5/2
9 Apriority Joel Rosario David Fawkes 30/1
A truly sick field in this one. Absolutely wide open. I barely even know where to start.
EUROEARS doesn't appeal too much due to some real inconsistencies. Even when you toss the Vosburgh, the last four six furlong dirt races have yielded two wins, a third and a sixth. He's a need-the-lead type that will have plenty of competition for it.
GIANT RYAN is 3-for-3 on off tracks like the one he won the Vosburgh on, but he has been good on everything for a while, going 6 for his last 6. It's truly a remarkable turnaround for the previously very average 5-year-old. Still, the Vosburgh was his first G1 win and it was probably track-aided, so I'm tossing.
JACKSON BEND is a horse I've been fond of for quite some time, and while I wish this race were at 7 furlongs, he is 2-for-2 lifetime at 6 furlongs and has led both of his 6 furlong races at the top of the stretch, so I feel good about his closing kick into what should be a strong pace.
FORCE FREEZE looks like a potential monster at 10/1. Spent a lot of time in Dubai before coming to America and putting up back-to-back 107 speed figs in a first in the Teddy Drone and second in the Vosburgh. Absolutely has to be considered a threat.
AMAZOMBIE looks tough on dirt with three wins and one second in four recent tries.
BIG DRAMA has too many questions at too low of odds -- fairly flat effort in his September prep was his only race since January and he's not training well.
SUMMARY: I'm having a hard time deciding between JACKSON BEND, FORCE FREEZE and AMAZOMBIE. I think they're all capable of laying off a pace set by EUROEARS, BIG DRAMA and GIANT RYAN, but I think AMAZOMBIE might lack the requisite brilliance to win at this level. I'll probably end up betting both JACKSON BEND and FORCE FREEZE because while I like JACKSON BEND more, FORCE FREEZE seems to offer great value.
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint
1 Grand Adventure Javier Castellano Mark R. Frostad 20/1
2 Holiday for Kitten Joel Rosario Wesley A. Ward 30/1
3 Broken Dreams Garrett Gomez Thomas F. Proctor 20/1
4 Perfect Officer Kendrick Carmouche Michael Pino 12/1
5 Great Attack Jeffrey Sanchez Wesley A. Ward 20/1
6 California Flag Patrick Valenzuela Brian J. Koriner 15/1
7 Hoofit (NZ) Edgar Prado H. Graham Motion 15/1
8 Regally Ready Corey Nakatani Steven M. Asmussen 3/1
9 Rapport Brian Hernandez Ronny W. Werner 30/1
10 Havelock Robby Albarado Darrin Miller 9/2
11 Country Day James Graham Stephen R. Margolis 20/1
12 Camp Victory Julien Leparoux Mike R. Mitchell 12/1
13 Caracortado Joe Talamo Michael Machowsky 4/1
14 Chamberlain Bridge Jamie Theriot W. Bret Calhoun 5/1
Might as well just roll the dice with these turf sprints a lot of times. They're always huge fields and it's almost impossible to recover from any mistake.
PERFECT OFFICER is coming off back-to-back second-place finishes in G3 races, both of which were triple digit speed figs and the latter of which he was just a length back of 9/2 Havelock. At 12/1 seems to offer value.
REGALLY READY is obviously logical but at 3/1 is highly questionable after tossing in a clunker 10th-place a few races back.
HAVELOCK had a nice win last out but that was at 5.5 furlongs and hasn't been quite as good at 5 furlongs.
CARACORTADO is a classy horse that hasn't run at less than a mile since last December. Curious race choice.
Summary: Nobody really knows in the Breeders' Cup version of bumper cars. At double-digit odds, PERFECT OFFICER seems as good a choice as any.
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
1 The Factor Martin Garcia Bob Baffert 7/2
2 Shackleford Jesus Castanon Dale L. Romans 7/2
3 Tapizar Garrett Gomez Steven M. Asmussen 20/1
4 Tres Borrachos Joel Rosario Martin F. Jones 30/1
5 Wilburn Julien Leparoux Steven M. Asmussen 4/1
6 Irrefutable Rafael Bejarano Bob Baffert 12/1
7 Jersey Town Cornelio Velasquez Barclay Tagg 15/1
8 Caleb's Posse Rajiv Maragh Donnie K. Von Hemel 5/1
9 Trappe Shot John Velazquez Kiaran P. McLaughlin 3/1
This race may be even more difficult to handicap than the Turf Sprint. As mentioned in Part I, this is probably the most evenly matched and deeply talented field from top-to-bottom.
Here's my attempt to make sense of it:
I'm OK with tossing the longshots TAPIZAR and TRES BORRACHOS. IRREFUTABLE is stretching out to a mile for the first time on dirt, and since a similar experiment on turf did not go well, I can toss him as well.
The other longest shot, JERSEY TOWN, has one win, one second and two thirds at the mile distance. He was soundly defeated by UNCLE MO on a muddy track in the Kelso last out, but won the Cigar Mile last November over HAYNESFIELD, so he's capable of beating top-grade horses. If he approaches 20-1, he becomes very interesting.
THE FACTOR is an absolute speedball and will undoubtedly go straight to the front from the rail. It's very interesting that SHACKLEFORD is right next to him in post No. 2 -- it just reeks of a speed duel that will bury both horses. SHACKLEFORD is a solid horse that is pure grit, but he hasn't won since the Preakness upset and just doesn't seem good enough against these, but I do believe he will melt THE FACTOR. Cutting back to a mile might be just what SHACKLEFORD needs, but he was even beat by WILBURN at 1 1/16 in his last out.
WILBURN has won three straight and the $625,000 colt is finally living up to his considerable promise after flounder earlier this year in the Matt Winn and Long Branch. His last score was huge and dominant against SHACKLEFORD and CALEB'S POSSE, but those horses don't strike me as the class of the field, anyway, and I believe WILBURN could bounce.
I might have picked the sprint for CALEB'S POSSE. His two biggest speed figs came when he upset UNCLE MO in the King's Bishop at 7 furlongs and in the Amsterdam at 111 and 108, respectively. At a mile and up, he hasn't come close to those numbers.
TRAPPE SHOT has been favored in 9 of his last 10 starts -- delivering wins in 6 of those races -- and that appears to be the case once again here. He has focused solely on 6 furlongs this year, though, and hasn't run a mile since last August. He's almost definitely the most talented colt and should be fine with the distance overall, but it poses an important question at odds of 3/1.
SUMMARY: This is a fascinating race with a lot of really talented horses. I really like JERSEY TOWN, who I believe can sit off the pace from post No. 7 and pounce at the top of the stretch. Failing that, the amount of pace in this race really would seem to benefit CALEB'S POSSE running late.
Breeders' Cup Turf
1 St Nicholas Abbey (IRE) Joseph O'Brien Aidan P. O'Brien 9/2
2 Sarafina (FR) Christophe Lemaire Alain De Royer-Dupre 5/2
3 Dean's Kitten Ramon Dominguez Michael J. Maker 10/1
4 Stately Victor Mike Smith Michael J. Maker 30/1
5 Teaks North Javier Castellano Justin Sallusto 20/1
6 Await the Dawn Julien Leparoux Aidan P. O'Brien 7/2
7 Sea Moon (GB) Ryan Moore Sir Michael R. Stoute 4/1
8 Brilliant Speed John Velazquez Thomas Albertrani 20/1
9 Midday (GB) Tom Queally Sir Henry Cecil 4/1
The British are coming! While it would be an absolute shocker if an American horse won this one, the same was true of the Filly & Mare Turf -- and PERFECT SHIRL came home at 30ish/1 in that one today. Still, the only impact that result really has in my mind is that we might see slightly better odds on the Euros.
SARAFINA had won three straight before floundering to a seventh-place finish in the Arc last out. Worrisome is that she comes from well back and would have a lot of work to do on the Churchill Downs stretch, which is short by European standards.
AWAIT THE DAWN had won four straight before a third-place finish last out, but his competition was a good deal worse than SARAFINA's.
SEA MOON gets to carry four pounds less than his elders and is yet another Euro who had won three straight -- including an 8 length romp against a G2 field two races back -- before a third-place finish at 1 3/4 miles. This race is still a step up from that G2 field, though.
BRILLIANT SPEED has become a decent turf horse and, if I had to bet on an American horse, this would be the one in hopes of a continued improvement from the three-year-old. Still, I don't have to bet an American.
MIDDAY opted for this race over the F&M option, and why not! She may have lost a step from last year, though, and was also beaten by St. Nicholas Abbey at this distance in June.
SUMMARY: MIDDAY seems to be the choice among many of my sources, but I'll side with SEA MOON as an improving three-year-old in great shape. MIDDAY is a close second choice.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile
1 Take Charge Indy James Graham Patrick B. Byrne 30/1
2 Dullahan Kent Desormeaux Dale L. Romans 8/1
3 Crusade Julien Leparoux Aidan P. O'Brien 12/1
4 Drill Martin Garcia Bob Baffert 8/1
5 Hansen Ramon Dominguez Michael J. Maker 10/1
6 Prospective Luis Contreras Mark E. Casse 30/1
7 Creative Cause Joel Rosario Mike Harrington 7/2
8 Speightscity Corey Nakatani Gary Contessa 20/1
9 Alpha Garrett Gomez Kiaran P. McLaughlin 15/1
10 Union Rags Javier Castellano Michael R. Matz 2/1
11 Daddy Long Legs Ryan Moore Aidan P. O'Brien 12/1
12 Fort Loudon Luis Jurado Stanley Gold 20/1
13 Optimizer Robby Albarado D. Wayne Lukas 15/1
People like to get excited about this race because it's really all about the next big thing. UNCLE MO won this race last year and look where he's at now.
UNION RAGS is everyone's clear-cut favorite after laying three straight beatdowns on talented fields. He won his debut on July 12 by 1 3/4 lengths, then a G2 by 7 1/4 lengths on August 15 and then at a mile by 5 1/4 lengths on October 8 in a G1. He doesn't need the lead. There is little to poke holes in here.
DRILL looked like the main contender in this race until getting soundly beaten by CREATIVE CAUSE in his last out at 1 1/16 miles, which was also his first try on dirt. Until further notice, I'm going to say he's not quite as good on dirt as he is on an artificial surface. CREATIVE CAUSE, on the other hand, solidly won that race has popped off two bullets in the past few weeks.
HANSEN is the most intriguing option to me. Two races. Two 94 speed figs. Two wins by a combined 25 1/2 lengths. He hasn't really faced anyone but that second race was at a 1 1/16 and saw splits of 23 2/5 and 46 2/5 -- very honest -- and still spurted away down the stretch.
ALPHA was soundly beaten by UNION RAGS in the Champagne but has speed figs of 96 and 92 in two races to date.
SUMMARY: HANSEN may very well be a freak, but there's a lot of early pace here that will press him harder than he ever has been pressed before. If he runs huge like he has and wins it, I'll drop my jaw in awe and applaud. UNION RAGS is a deserving favorite, but I don't rate him that highly above CREATIVE CAUSE to justify the lower odds. but even more than that, ALPHA seems to offer outstanding value. This BERNARDINI colt should appreciate a bit of extra distance and has the running style I'd prefer against these. ALPHA it is.
Breeders' Cup Mile
1 Goldikova (IRE) Olivier Peslier Freddy Head 7/5
2 Zoffany (IRE) Ryan Moore Aidan P. O'Brien 20/1
3 Courageous Cat Patrick Valenzuela William I. Mott 8/1
4 Mr. Commons Mike Smith John A. Shirreffs 20/1
5 Gio Ponti Ramon Dominguez Christophe Clement 4/1
6 Get Stormy Garrett Gomez Thomas M. Bush 15/1
7 Jeranimo Martin Garcia Mike Pender 20/1
8 Byword (GB) Maxime Guyon Andre Fabre 12/1
9 Court Vision Robby Albarado Dale L. Romans 30/1
10 Sidney's Candy John Velazquez Todd A. Pletcher 15/1
11 Strong Suit Richard Hughes Richard Hannon 10/1
12 Compliance Officer Alex Solis Bruce Brown 50/1
13 Turallure Julien Leparoux Charles Lopresti 8/1
Rumors of Goldikova's demise may be greatly exaggerated. Sure, she has won only two of five starts this year, but she finished second in the three others by a combined two lengths and a head. One loss came to CANFORD CLIFFS -- who some thought was the best horse in the world before he suffered an injury that ended his career -- and another came to IMMORTAL VERSE, another heck of a horse. The final loss came to DREAM AHEAD, which would give me more pause if the race wasn't run at only 7 furlongs -- definitely shorter than GOLDIKOVA' preferred one-mile distance. Has she lost a step? Maybe. Does it really matter?
ZOFFANY ran second to the amazing FRANKEL in June but hasn't won since last August and is definitely off form with 8th and 12th place finishes in her last two out.
COURAGEOUS CAT gave GOLDIKOVA all she could handle in 2009 but hasn't appeared special since February 2010 and was second to TURALLURE in his last out.
MR. COMMONS is pretty interesting at 20/1 coming off a 105 speed fig in his last out. He should only be getting better as a 3-year-old and is worthy of consideration at this price.
GIO PONTI finally won for the first time in nearly a year in his last out. This horse is nothing but consistent and shows up all the time, but the speed figs this year are down from last year and I think, like GOLDIKOVA, he may have lost a step.
GET STORMY finished just behind GIO PONTI and provides much better value at 15/1. The big worry is that she was a well-beaten 11th in this race last year.
JERANIMO ran huge last out to beat MR. COMMONS but had only won 2 of 13 prior races and is much easier to dismiss.
BYWORD is coming off of two straight wins and is 3 for 4 lifetime at the mile distance but finished 7 lengths behind GOLDIKOVA at 1 1/8 miles in May.
SIDNEY'S CANDY should get a fairly easy lead and could be dangerous if it's too easy.
COMPLIANCE OFFICER has won five straight against better-than-you-think competition. Another interesting longshot proposition.
SUMMARY: This is what people like to call a great betting race. You've got the big name, probably overbet favorites in GOLDIKOVA and GIO PONTI, and then a host of other possibilities. I find MR. COMMONS to be the most interesting longshot option of those mentioned above ... he's an improving colt that could be sitting on a big one. Period.
Breeders' Cup Classic
2 Flat Out Alex Solis Charles L. Dickey 6/1
3 Drosselmeyer Mike Smith William I. Mott 15/1
4 Ruler On Ice Garrett Gomez Kelly J. Breen 30/1
5 So You Think (NZ) Ryan Moore Aidan P. O'Brien 5/1
6 Ice Box Corey Nakatani Nicholas P. Zito 30/1
7 Rattlesnake Bridge Calvin Borel Kiaran P. McLaughlin 30/1
8 Game On Dude Chantal Sutherland Bob Baffert 10/1
9 Stay Thirsty Javier Castellano Todd A. Pletcher 12/1
10 Havre de Grace Ramon Dominguez J. Larry Jones 3/1
11 Headache Paco Lopez Michael J. Maker 30/1
12 Uncle Mo John Velazquez Todd A. Pletcher 5/2
13 To Honor and Serve Jose Lezcano William I. Mott 12/1
I find it very easy to toss out four horses right off the bat: ICE BOX (hasn't actually ever won a race of consequence), HEADACHE (ditto), RATTLESNAKE BRIDGE (again), DROSSELMEYER (hasn't won anywhere but Belmont).
RULER ON ICE will end up attracting more attention and probably will go off at closer to 20/1, but his one big win came on an off track against distance-challenged and far inferior colts at Belmont. Impossible to support as a win candidate, but he could hit an exotic if you're looking that way.
So there are seven horses to more seriously consider:
FLAT OUT is a horse that finally won a big race in his last out -- but he beat DROSSELMEYER and STAY THIRSTY. I'm sorry, but that doesn't impress me much. I love the story of his trainer coming out of retirement and guiding this fragile horse to the sport's pinnacle, but FLAT OUT's other win was ahead of Hymn Book and Rodman. He hasn't proved enough to me and I don't see him as talented enough to beat this field.
SO YOU THINK's connections obviously think he will handle dirt just fine ... but at 5/1, I can't see how you could bet on this one over other horses that you KNOW can handle dirt.
GAME ON DUDE will certainly shoot to the lead and has to be on the pace. That strategy could work in this race, but with his biggest wins coming over distance-challenged TWIRLING CANDY, I have a hard time believing this colt is special enough to win the sport's biggest race.
STAY THIRSTY gives me the same feeling that GAME ON DUDE does ... he's going to give it his all and he's a fine horse, but you have to be great to win this race. I don't believe STAY THIRSTY is ... at least not away from his beloved Saratoga.
UNCLE MO poses the same general question that arises with SO YOU THINK applies here -- we don't know if UNCLE MO can actually get this distance. His pedigree would indicate he can not. His history would indicate that he can not. He's almost certainly the most talented horse in the field and he would have almost boringly romped in the dirt mile -- so you can't fault the connections for taking a shot -- but at 5/2, you're making a big assumption.
HAVRE DE GRACE has already beat FLAT OUT by 1 1/4 lengths, so there's that. That race was at 1 1/8, though, and, quite frankly, even though her only two races at this distance have been amazingly tight second-place finishes with the incredible BLIND LUCK, I think this is longer than she wants. She's not bred for this distance.
TO HONOR AND SERVE has questions of his own. But at 12-1, they are questions I'm willing to live with. He was the "other" Uncle Mo, if you will, back in January after some stellar wins last fall. He took down two Grade 2 races with ease before taking a break and coming back in February and April with two relatively lackluster third-place performances -- one was his first race off a break, so really nothing to be ashamed of -- and then he was injured in the second race. He returned to training in June and his first race back in August was the Amsterdam at 6.5 furlongs -- certainly too short for him -- and clearly needed a race as he finished sixth. Since then, though, he destroyed an optional claiming field at 1 1/8 miles on August 26 by 8 lengths and destroyed another field in the Pennsylvania Derby (including RULER ON ICE and RATTLESNAKE BRIDGE). Now, again, those horses weren't special ... but he led by five at the top of the stretch after a sweeping move and set a stakes record despite essentially being geared down. Out of BERNARDINI, he's absolutely bred for the distance. We obviously don't know if he can beat horses of this quality, but he's by far the best bet in the field if he goes off at greater than 10/1.
SUMMARY: The most interesting part of this race to me is the lack of TRUE speed. There are a lot of supposed early and pressing style runners, but GAME ON DUDE is the only horse that's really going to WANT that lead. That makes things pretty interesting. Does UNCLE MO try to go with him? (I can't see it at the distance.) I don't think HAVRE DE GRACE will.
Todd Pletcher was pleased to be outside the early speed -- you never want to be pinned down inside early speed when they cut over in front of you -- but I'd almost feel better about TO HONOR AND SERVE if he were inside and could keep GAME ON DUDE wide. As it is, if UNCLE MO shows any speed at all -- which he almost certainly will -- TO HONOR AND SERVE will have to either expend a lot of energy early getting in front of UNCLE MO or be content sitting at least two and potentially three or four wide into the first turn ... and possibly throughout. Then again, that's the exact route he took in the Pennsylvania Derby and it obviously didn't bother him there, so maybe that's OK.
However I look at this race, I come back TO HONOR AND SERVE. The one worry is that he carried 10 pounds less than Ruler On Ice in the Pa. Derby and only beat him by 2 lengths, but I feel fairly certain he was barely asked in that race. I think he has a lot more left in the tank and is capable of being special ... he's the clear pick.
My biggest worry at this point is that I wrote the above a few nights ago and then, today, all I heard on the broadcast was TO HONOR AND SERVE this and TO HONOR AND SERVE that. I'm more than a bit worried that he'll end up going off at much lower odds than 12/1.
Well, that's it. Let's hope Breeders' Cup Saturday is more profitable than Breeders' Cup Friday -- you may just want to bet all of my win bets to place.
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