Thursday, November 3, 2011

The First Annual Wothism Breeders' Cup Preview (Part I)

HAVRE DE GRACE hopes to become just the
second-ever filly to win the Breeders' Cup Classic.
I've been putting together an annual Kentucky Derby preview for the past three years now (and I finally a picked a winner this year with 20-1 ANIMAL KINGDOM), but this is the first year that I'm tackling on the Breeders' Cup.

Since this guide is primarily geared toward casual fans or even outright non-fans, I'd like to run through a few frequently asked questions about the Breeders' Cup:

Question: What the hell is the Breeders' Cup?

Answer: The Breeders' Cup is a 15-race event that takes place on the first Friday and Saturday in every November and is essentially the world championship for horse racing. The Breeders' Cup Classic is truly the Super Bowl of horse racing -- the best of the best.

Question: Uh, isn't the Kentucky Derby the Super Bowl of horse racing? 

Answer: No. I mean, kind of. The Kentucky Derby has more pomp and circumstance, but the Kentucky Derby is a race limited to only three-year-olds. The Breeders' Cup Classic is an event with no age limits on any races except for the four races limited to just two-year-olds. In other words, while the Derby winners are the horses who will be remembered by the general public, the winners of the Breeders' Cup races -- particularly the Classic -- are truly the best in the world.

Question: So, why the hell do they need 15 races to figure this out?

Answer: It's a question many people much smarter than you or I have asked. The simple answer is: More races = more handle = more money. But many of the races make good sense, especially when you consider that many horsemen simply don't like to run females against males if at all possible (you can draw your own sexual bias conclusions here, but the general feeling is that the ladies are often too stubborn and push themselves harder than they ought to, which leads to more injuries ... which is obviously the worst case scenario in horse racing). For instance, while the Classic is run on dirt at 10 furlongs (1 1/4 miles) -- the classic distance and what most folks in the industry believe is a true test of champions -- some horses simply weren't built to go that far or to race on dirt. So there are turf races (at varying distances) and dirt races (at varying distances) so that all types of horses have a chance to prove their mettle. Some races -- the Breeders' Cup Marathon, in particular -- are widely panned by critics as being unnecessary or even entirely meaningless, but most of the races make good sense and help to settle scores that may have not been settled throughout the year. (In horse racing, one of the most fun/irritating points of contention is East Coast vs. West Coast -- due to the amount of strain travel can impose on horses, some horsemen will only bring their horses East or West for the Breeders' Cup races, so it can help settle the score of who's the best.)

Question: OK ... when are these races and when can I see them?

Answer: Here's the list of post times (listed in CST ... because that's what I prefer, damnit) and the accompanying television coverage:

FRIDAY:

(Dirt) Juvenile Sprint -- 6 furlongs -- 3:10 p.m. -- ESPN2
Juvenile Fillies Turf -- 1 mile -- 3:50 p.m. -- ESPN2
(Dirt) Filly & Mare Sprint -- 7 furlongs -- 4:30 p.m. -- ESPN2
(Dirt) Juvenile Fillies -- 1 1/16 miles -- 5:10 p.m. -- ESPN2
Filly & Mare Turf -- 1 3/8 miles -- 5:50 p.m. -- ESPN2
(Dirt) Ladies' Classic -- 1 1/8 miles -- 6:30 p.m. -- ESPN2

SATURDAY:

(Dirt) Marathon -- 1 3/4 miles -- 12:20 p.m. -- TBD
Juvenile Turf -- 1 mile -- 1:02 p.m. -- ABC
(Dirt) Sprint -- 6 furlongs -- 1:37 p.m. -- ABC
Turf Sprint -- 5 furlongs -- 2:21 p.m. -- ABC
Dirt Mile -- 1 mile -- 3:01 p.m. -- ESPN
Turf -- 1 1/2 miles -- 3:45 p.m. -- ESPN
(Dirt) Juvenile -- 1 1/16 miles -- 4:25 p.m. -- ESPN
(Turf) Mile -- 1 mile -- 5:07 pm. -- ESPN
(Dirt) Classic -- 1 1/4 miles -- 6 p.m. -- ESPN

(As an aside, I just have to comment that I find it pretty foolish for ESPN to be showing the prime races and ABC to be showing races that basically will only appeal to hardcore fans. Even I have a hard time being excited about the Juvenile Turf, and the Turf Sprint is only slightly more appealing. The Sprint will be a solid race, but that's probably only the fifth or sixth most interesting race of the day. What a shame for a sport that really needs to grow its fan base.)

Question: My God, that's a long time to watch horses intermittently run around the track ... which races might actually be worth watching?

Answer: Pretty easy answer. The Classic is, without a doubt, the race to watch if you're only going to tune into one. Fortunately, the Breeders' Cup came up with a schedule that made sense this year and packaged the one other race that is REALLY worth watching right before the Classic. The Mile and Dirt Mile (the naming conventions in this event really irritate me -- observant readers will have noticed that there was a Sprint and then a Turf Sprint ... and now there's the Mile and the Dirt Mile ... even I can't give you a good answer as to why they don't just use Dirt and Turf in front of all the races) are the two other stellar events with a ton of tremendous horses ready to battle it out. I also have to mention the Juvenile (for two-year-olds on dirt) and the Ladies' Classic (on Friday) as noteworthy.

HAVRE DE GRACE. That's the easy angle. Then you have the woman jockey taking on the men on GAME ON DUDE. And you have UNCLE MO's stablemate, STAY THIRSTY, trying to top his buddy in the biggest race of them all. You must watch. I implore you. As heartbreaking as it is to share this video: Zenyatta just misses history, watch it and feel the excitement. That's what you'll see again this year. It gets no better.

The (Turf!) Mile is the other race that will probably most appeal to the average viewer, as the legendary GOLDIKOVA comes returns to the race in search of her fourth straight Breeders' Cup victory. However, she's coming off a two-race losing streak over in Europe, so there are signs of chinks in the armor. She's now six years old and this will be her last race -- win or lose -- so there's a great "human interest" element at play here. The old champ returns for one final shot at immortality. As hard as it is to not pull for her, betting against her might be hard to pass up as the last two runners-up in this race (GIO PONTI and COURAGEOUS CAT) return to take one last shot at the old gal.

As for the Dirt Mile, there is no field in the entire Breeders' Cup draw that looks more evenly matched and deeply talented from top-to-bottom. This year's Preakness winner SHACKLEFORD takes on a field of mostly older horses in an attempt to prove his merit after a campaign that has disappointed since the Preakness. CALEB'S POSSE nipped the possibly great UNCLE MO in the King's Bishop back in August, and those two will have to deal with the immensely talented TRAPPE SHOT and the immensely speedy THE FACTOR, two horses that have plenty of raw tools to win here. And that list doesn't even include WILBURN, a horse that beat CALEB'S POSSE in his last out. It's a loaded field.

The Breeders' Cup Juvenile is (again, not coincidentally) will showcase the main threats to win next May's Kentucky Derby in UNION RAGS, CREATIVE CAUSE and DRILL. There are so many unknowns/less story lines in this race, but it gives you a peek at the stars of tomorrow (UNCLE MO won this race in a romp last year). HANSEN is one in particular that remains an unknown after facing weaker competition and could turn out to be an absolute monster.

Finally, as mentioned, the one Friday race that strikes me as mention-worthy is the Ladies Classic. It's lacking a bit of the star power we had hoped it would have at the start of the year with BLIND LUCK taking a break after a horrific last start and HAVRE DE GRACE taking on the boys, but there are still plenty of talented ladies ready to slug it out in the Friday nightcap. In the field of 10, there are really only two that I'd feel comfortable throwing out right off the bat ... so it's pretty wide open in my estimation.

So, in short, the casual fan should plan on tuning into ESPN at 5 p.m. on Saturday and watching Goldikova make her run at history, spend the next 45 minutes watching some pre-race stories about the horses in the Classic, and then watch the grandaddy of them all (unlike The Rose Bowl, nobody actually calls it this).

That's it for this part of the preview. In parts 2 and 3 (to come tomorrow), I'll break down Friday and Saturday's races.

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