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| PALACE MALICE is my pick to win the 2013 Kentucky Derby. In other words, you should probably avoid betting on him. |
(5/3 update, 11:34 a.m.: I added a bit of analysis for each horse regarding whether I would upgrade or downgrade him if the track comes up muddy or sloppy.)
(5/3 update, 10 p.m.: Here are a few horse vs. horse matchups I like if you're so inclined: FRAC DADDY +110 vs. LINES OF BATTLE; CHARMING KITTEN +180 vs. MYLUTE; PALACE MALICE +105 vs. WILL TAKE CHARGE; VYJACK -115 vs. JAVA'S WAR)
(5/4 update, 4:17 p.m.: Here's how I'm playing the Derby: $30 to win on: PALACE MALICE; $20 on OVERANALYZE, VERRAZANO, VYJACK; $10 on ITSMYLUCKYDAY = $100. $1 exactas with ORB, REVOLUTIONARY, NORMANDY INVASION and MYLUTE over the five horses above = $20. The idea is that the exactas will function as a "saver" if one of these potential winners at prices I don't necessarily like gets up to beat one of my horses.)
Another year, another insanely long Kentucky Derby Preview. Some things never change.
If you came back after last year’s HANSEN debacle, well, thanks. I’m still trying to forget about that and will attempt to continue to ride my half-hearted endorsement of ANIMAL KINGDOM in 2011 for a few years.
Every year, I try to figure out the best way to attack this preview. My main goal is to get other people interested in watching the race, but I also do this to get my own thoughts and mental notes from the past 10 or so months of horse racing organized.
In other words, it's kind of a struggle to figure out how technical I want to get and how much I should explain certain concepts. For the most part, though, I’m just going to use my own lingo and terminology … if you’re not familiar with it, you can ask me directly and I would be happy to explain.
This is my FIFTH Annual Kentucky Derby Preview, and my appreciation of horse racing continues to grow. What I love about horse racing is that I'm always learning new things and adding to my knowledge bank. Even compared to a year ago at this time, I feel like I'm a much better handicapper. Compared to the first Derby Preview, I'm just mostly embarrassed at how little I understood the game. Five years from now, I’ll probably be embarrassed of this preview, too. But … here goes anyway.
In the lead-up to this year’s Derby, Churchill Downs introduced a new wrinkle into this year's Derby. In the past, the field would be composed of the top 20 horses in terms of graded earnings. This year, Churchill Downs used a system that awarded points based on the strength of preps and their relative closeness to May 3, 2013. So, for example, the Arkansas Derby three weeks ago was worth 100 points to the winner, while the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall was worth a whopping 10 points to the winner.
More than anything, this new system rewarded recent form and devalued many of the two-year-old races that have been overly represented in past years (the $1 million Delta Downs Jackpot comes to mind). So, that's a plus in terms of overall competitiveness. Additionally, it didn't award points for any races under a mile, so some of the sprinters that made it in past years won't be here (Trinniberg last year comes to mind).
Overall, these changes are for the best. The only thing I saw wrong with the changes was the petty exclusion of the Illinois Derby (Churchill Downs also owns Arlington Park, so they compete with Hawthorne for racing dates), but overall I think devaluing two-year-old races and sprint wins is a step in the right direction.
HOWEVER, while I think these changes have given us a more competitive field than in the past, it makes handicapping that much more difficult. Additionally, the lack of sprint horses means we'll likely have a softer pace than in recent years. I don't see an opening quarter of 22.32 and an opening half of 45.39 this year like Bodemeister put up last year while being pressed by eventual Breeders' Cup Sprint Champion Trinniberg.
The lack of sprint horses also means that we have somewhat less distance questions than in year's past. Now, nine furlongs is something many of these horses have done -- the major preps are all nine furlongs -- and that's still a whole different ballgame than ten furlongs. But knowing that these horses can at least go nine furlongs versus basically tossing some horses in past years due to what seemed like an obvious inability to get the distance (again, Trinniberg was a prime example) makes this a more difficult exercise.
So, we have a pretty evenly matched field with a decent likelihood of not much pace. My reaction before the post draw was that this is even more of a crapshoot than usual. And in a race that always has 19-20 horses, that's obviously saying something.
However, after seeing the post draw, I think the likelihood of a fast pace went up a fair amount. The real kickers, to me, were OXBOW drawing the No. 2 post and VYJACK drawing the No. 20 post. I expected OXBOW to be sent to the front due to his inability to rate (I’ll get into this more in his section) -- so the No. 2 post only cemented that he HAS to go -- but I thought VYJACK would find himself further back. Now, I don’t know that VYJACK has the option to not go for the lead without being hung eight-wide throughout that first turn. He almost has to go for it.
Everyone expects FALLING SKY to be the pace of the pace, and he’s in post No. 13. VERRAZANO drew a perfect post for the most part in No. 14, and he would prefer to be out in the clear on FALLING SKY’S flank. But if VYJACK is crashing in from No. 20, VERRAZANO might have to go a little faster to avoid getting squeezed back. And that might push FALLING SKY faster! And all of this ignores that GOLDENCENTS has never been more than a half-length off fast paces at the second call of races, and he’s in post No. 8 … so if he doesn’t want to be squeezed back, he also may need to be sent forward! Oh, and hey, GIANT FINISH in post No. 7 hasn’t been more than a length back of the lead at the first call in his last three starts!
All in all, what I viewed to be a fairly paceless race originally seems a lot more open to interpretation now. My original thought was that FALLING SKY would set the pace and you’d have a solid crew of pressers happy to lay a length or two back, but now, I could see it playing out pretty much any possible way. Could the pace be blistering? Sure. Could it be tepid? Yep. Could it be fairly typical? You bet!
To have any hope of handicapping a race, though, you have to somewhat sort out what the pace will be. And, ultimately, this group of horses just isn’t that fast. In fact, if you look at the adjusted figures for the first quarter and half-miles of the races this field has run, it’s actually GOLDENCENTS that has laid down the fastest splits. And I have no doubt that he will be as restrained as possible to sit back even just a little bit. The others just don’t appear to have the great natural speed. They’ve been on the lead in what have been slow races. OXBOW, for instance, led the LeComte, Risen Star and Rebel despite only running times of :48.4, :48.2 and :47.
So, I’m sticking to the overall premise that this race is more likely to have a reasonable half-mile split (I’m calling reasonable :47 and up) than not. And, generally speaking, the slower the pace is up front, the better off horses near the front are -- they have more energy for the final kick. The faster the pace is up front, the better for horses near the rear -- likewise, they have saved more energy.
Just keep that in mind as I go through and evaluate each horse below. All things being equal, I will prefer horses near the front to horses typically near the back.
And now, without further ado, my horse by horse breakdown (in order of post position) of the field. Please note that it now looks like it will rain on Saturday, so I'll have some caveats to add to my analysis in the coming days. I will call out my added off-track analysis in italics as I get through it:
2. OXBOW (30/1): This is my sentimental pick as 50ish-year-old Gary Stevens is the jockey in another Derby after making a return to riding just a few short months ago after a seven-ish year retirement. I thought he was outstanding as a down-on-his-luck jockey in the sublime “Luck” on HBO, and he’s always been a very likeable and knowledgeable analyst on broadcasts over the years. However, if Gary pulls it out, I won’t benefit financially. Even though I’m willing to draw a line through his last race in the Arkansas Derby, I don’t see the quality or ability to go longer. Gary tried to take OXBOW back a bit in the Arkansas Derby thinking he could harness his “one run” ability, but that was a terrible mistake. He was never involved in a fifth-place finish after looking extremely uncomfortable with dirt in his face. So, this guy will be on or near the lead, especially breaking from the No. 2 post. He has no other choice, really, and yet I don’t see any real possibility that he can take this field all the way. He shows a big drop-off toward the end of much shorter races than he’ll see in the Kentucky Derby, so thinking that he’ll suddenly sustain his run for an extra few furlongs is a real longshot indeed. He’s also trained by D. Wayne Lukas, who is becoming/has become infamous for never winning stakes anymore. With a lot of these longer shot horses I’m somewhat willing to say, “Well, if this happens and this happens, they could have a real chance.” Heck, that’s even true for the horse we just covered, BLACK ONYX -- there’s the possibility that Breen has improved him greatly and that he really loves Churchill. But I just don’t see any other options for OXBOW than the same thing that hasn’t worked in the past, and some relatively lackluster training efforts are enough to keep me away entirely. OFF-TRACK ANALYSIS: I would upgrade OXBOW slightly if the track comes up muddy or sloppy, but not enough to consider betting on him.
3. REVOLUTIONARY (10/1): It took this horse four tries to break his maiden, but he is undefeated in three starts since, taking the G3 Withers in February and the G2 Louisiana Derby in March. His Withers win was pretty breathtaking, as he got a horrible trip and barely had any chance to run until the very end, when he spurted through a tiny hole to win by a neck. That kind of spurtability and maneuverability can be very important in the Derby, so that's a plus. He earned a solid 105 speed figure in the Louisiana Derby, circling five wide to win that one by a neck. In the process, he beat DEPARTING, a horse that came back to win the Illinois Derby last week. All in all, REVOLUTIONARY is the real deal. He comes from off the pace, but he's not a true deep closer -- he hasn't been more than four lengths back at the second call of any of his last five races. So that should help in the sense that even if the pace is slow, he'll still be enough in it to have a chance. The X factor here is the jockey. CALVIN BOREL. He's extremely average at this point of his career everywhere but Churchill, and he's obviously the master of the Kentucky Derby at this point. But here's the thing ... EVERYONE KNOWS THAT. The odds on every Derby horse he rides are simply unacceptably low these days. In most of the horse races I bet, I use the betting patterns to my advantage -- for example, if a first-time starter is getting a lot more play than I would have expected, he's likely a much better contender than I would have given him credit for, and I'll sometimes even bet a horse like that based solely on the betting patterns. In the Derby, however, there's so much dumb money because everyone has to have "a horse." And what better horse to take than the one being ridden by the one jockey everyone seems to recognize? In other words, I don’t think REVOLUTIONARY will be at 10/1 come race day. If he is, heck, I’ll plunk something down on him. But since he has also trained so strongly coming into this race, I think he’ll be at lower odds than I’d like, and I don’t think he’s the best horse in this field, so I’ll likely try to beat him. OFF-TRACK ANALYSIS: REVOLUTIONARY has taken a lot of early money in the pools and is actually currently a co-favorite, and I think it's largely because of the rain in the forecast. He has already run a 103 speed figure on an off track, so he definitely moves up on my list -- again, the problem with this guy is that he appears to be high on everyone else's list, too.
4. GOLDEN SOUL (50/1): To his credit, he has apparently looked great at Churchill Downs. So, there’s that. And although he was only fourth in the Louisiana Derby, at least he was sixth in the Risen Star and second in the LeComte, beaten 11.5 lengths by OXBOW. And since I don’t like OXBOW … come on. No chance. He was a late entry only announced a few days ago officially, so it’s an obvious case of, “Hey, we can get a free box at the Derby” from the owners. Oh well. OFF-TRACK ANALYSIS: Based on breeding, I would probably downgrade this guy even further, if that's even possible.
5. NORMANDY INVASION (12/1): For a brief time, NORMANY INVASION was gaining buzz as the “wise guy” horse and one who may even ultimately threaten for favoritism. But this horse … how many excuses can we make for him? He broke his maiden in his second start last November, and then wheeled back in three weeks for the G2 Remsen. That race was hailed as really strong for a while, then really weak, and now again really strong. In that one, NORMANDY INVASION was seven lengths off a 48-second half mile pace and closed through the turn to be just a half-length back entering the stretch. But he couldn’t get by OVERANALYZE. Hmm. His speed fig came out at 104 with 79-90-114 internal figs, and that was extremely close to what he did last-out in the Wood Memorial when he couldn’t get by VERRAZANO -- 99 speed fig with 71-80-114 internally. Both were at 1 1/8 miles, both were run at Aqueduct. Hmm. He was well back in his lone non-Aqueduct race since then and had a fairly rough trip, but not so rough in my eyes that it really excused his fifth-place finish. I know he’ll be coming at the end, but I’ve now heard conflicting reports at Churchill. On one hand, he ripped off a :59 five furlong work on Saturday morning and reportedly looked great doing it. But I also have heard and seen that he has lost weight recently, which typically isn’t a good sign. I really don’t see him being as high as 12/1, either. All in all, too many questions, not enough value for me. OFF-TRACK ANALYSIS: I think NORMANDY INVASION would move up on a tiring, muddy track, but not so much on a sloppy, fast track. Hard to figure.
6. MYLUTE (15/1): The second son of MIDNIGHT LUTE missed by just a neck to REVOLUTIONARY in the Louisiana Derby and turned in a very strong work on April 21 at Churchill, covering four furlongs in 47.8 seconds, second best of 81 runners at the distance that day. I loved the Louisiana Derby he ran. 97-109-96 is a great race shape as far as I’m concerned -- if he runs back to that, he’s right there with the best of them. I love his pattern of improvement, as well -- dating back to the race in which he broke his maiden last August at Arlington Park (in which he actually mildly regressed from his prior race), his speed figs: 79-87-90-91-94-95-105. I love that he’s a just-off-the-pace runner. So, what don’t I like? Well, there’s enough of that, too. For one, I worry that he may have peaked one race too early. Jumping 10 points like that makes me worry quite a bit about him bouncing (handicapping terminology for following up a very good race with a clunker). I worry that Tom Amoss is his trainer -- he has a pretty poor history running in graded stakes, although honestly that isn’t a huge factor for me ... generally speaking, if a horse can run, a horse can run, and this horse can run. The better trainers typically just end up getting lucky and get better and better horses. I worry that Rosie Napravnik is aboard. Now, I think Rosie is actually one of the top 10 jockeys out there, but there mere fact that she’s a woman is going to attract a lot of female action in support of her. This happened with PANTS ON FIRE a few years back -- if I recall correctly, PANTS ON FIRE was bet down to something like 12/1 when he should have been more like 25/1. And that’s basically what happened here, too. Before it was announced that Rosie was the jockey, he was listed as 45/1. Now 15/1? Finally, there’s the whole, “Would MIDNIGHT LUTE really have been good going long?” question. Bob Baffert trained MIDNIGHT LUTE and always maintained he would have been a monster going long if not for a breathing problem. MYLUTE’s pedigree looks awfully short based on average winning distance alone because of that, and it was somewhat backed by the fact that he had every chance to go by REVOLUTIONARY in the Louisiana Derby but seemed to flatten out a bit. He was my favorite play in the race at 45/1 … but gosh, 15/1 is a tough sell. OFF-TRACK ANALYSIS: Definite upgrade on an off-track. His daddy was a monster on off-tracks, and his grandpappy was similarly skilled when the going was off.
7. GIANT FINISH (50/1): The quote from trainer Tony Dutrow says it all: “My clients wish to race, and obviously I’m going to honor their decision.” GIANT FINISH was the last and most surprising entrant to the race … he had not come up in the discussions at all and was being pointed to an allowance race at Belmont Park. Now he’s running here? YIKES. Deep water, pal. If I was desperate to make a case for him, I would argue that he has paired up 93 speed figs in his past two races and could make a step forward. But he’s a frontrunner, and the two races that he’s won in his five-race career have been extremely slow races early. We might get slow at the Derby, but we’re not getting extremely slow. No chance. OFF-TRACK ANALYSIS: Maybe a slight upgrade on an off-track, but you would still never bet him to win.
8. GOLDENCENTS (5/1): Hey look, it's the same team that won last year's Derby with the Santa Anita Derby winner! Trainer Doug O'Neill is back with Reddam Racing, only this time with another unheralded jockey in Kevin Krigger. The feel-good story of Krigger getting a Derby mount/sort-of-feel-good story of O'Neill/Reddam getting another shot after I'LL HAVE ANOTHER was scratched the day before Belmont last year aside (sort-of-feel-good because O'Neill has had questions surrounding his use of drugs and Reddam owns a company that basically defines what's wrong with America), GOLDENCENTS is a horse that tricked me in his last race. I didn't think he could go nine furlongs as all of his races have shown a fast-early, slow-late profile, and his breeding doesn't seem to show stamina as a strength. So I, along with many others, dismissed him at 6-1, and of course he won by 1.25 lengths. But this was a horse that beat an ultimately injured horse (favorite FLASHBACK) and a speed horse in SUPER NINETY NINE. O'Neill is excited about GOLDENCENTS because he relaxed for the first time in the SA Derby, but let's put that in context. In his previous start in the San Felipe, GOLDENCENTS tugged like a psycho and battled FLASHBACK through 22.8 and 45.8 fractions. In the SA Derby, he was just a half-length off of S99 after a half in 46.4. He wasn't pulling, true, but it's not exactly as if he truly SETTLED into a spot behind the leaders. Additionally, the fact that his final Derby prep was 1:16 for six furlong is really puzzling. O’Neill wants to slow him down, but wow. Overall, though, I just don’t see this horse getting the distance at all, so I will base my entire decision about him on that belief. But what interests me about GOLDENCENTS is the role he might play in the pace. Most of the horses in the field, even the few horses that do seem to like being on the lead, have shown that they'll run well despite being off the lead. I can absolutely see him rushing up, and maybe we get a bit more pace than expected. If there's one horse that's going to screw up my plans for this race, it's GOLDENCENTS. OFF-TRACK ANALYSIS: If it's a sloppy fast track where speed seems to be holding, then I might consider him at a slightly higher price than his morning line.
9. OVERANALYZE (15/1): The knock on this guy currently is that the Arkansas Derby he won on April 13 was pretty weak. And, yeah, it was. But he won with general aplomb, cruising to a 4.25-length win. The speed fig was lower than you'd like to see, but if you also excuse his fifth-place Gotham finish due to it being his first race in nearly four months, you find yourself back looking at his Remsen victory over NORMANDY INVASION last fall, which looked great for a while, then horrible, and now great again. He appears to be improving at the right time and has run big figures before, but can he get back to that level or beyond it just three weeks after the Arkansas Derby? He pounded out a bullet workout at Churchill on Saturday, covering four furlongs in :47, so he appears primed for the race. He seems overlooked to me and with solid tactical speed -- he has never been more than four lengths off the pace -- I think he’s kind of a great fit for the Derby. OFF-TRACK ANALYSIS: I would downgrade OVERANALYZE slightly on an off-track. His breeding doesn't appear to support the idea that he's a strong off-track runner, so this would just be just another question that might be enough to push me off of him, especially if he gets bet down at all.
10. PALACE MALICE (20/1): This horse is extremely intriguing. Is he an uber-talented freak with good excuses for every loss, or is he simply not good enough to win most of the races he’s in after a 1-for-6 start to his career? He was second by a neck to Java’s War off of two weeks’ rest in the Blue Grass at Keeneland, a placing that got him enough points to get into the Derby, but I can’t take too many lessons from that race. While its form has held up pretty well in the Derby, it’s more of a turf race than dirt. I would rather focus on his run in the race before, the G2 Louisiana Derby. After a slow start, he made an extremely strong middle move to get into fourth at the second call. And then ... TRAFFIC. The notes say he was “stymied” ... I would go a step further and say he was STOPPED. BLOCKADED. Edgar Prado had to slam the brakes hard, many times, and simply had nowhere to run even though PALACE MALICE looked like he was about ready to sprout wings. He may have been the most impressive seventh-place finisher I’ve ever seen. Before that, he was third, a half-length back from upset winner I’VESTRUCKANERVE. He was wide throughout in that race, although his inability to pull it out over such a longshot worries me. Prior to that he posted a 101 fig in a second-place finish at seven furlongs to a crack sprinter in the slop. No embarrassment there. He broke his maiden at Saratoga last August with a 93 speed fig, and his career debut last July at Belmont was a 102 fig. As a son of Curlin, he obviously has tons of class and ability to win going long, and his dam even had more staying power. He gets Mike Smith on board for this race, too, and he’s known for his sometimes overly sweeping moves (he avoids traffic at all costs, typically), so I trust him to keep PALACE MALICE out of trouble. I believe he’ll be right there at the end, and at a price I’m willing to accept. OFF-TRACK ANALYSIS: If he hadn't already run a 101 speed figure on a sloppy track, I would have downgraded him a bit since he's not really bred for it. But since he already put in a strong showing on the slop, I feel pretty comfortable staying true to him rain or shine.
11. LINES OF BATTLE (30/1): Beyond the fact that this horse has won a race at the longest distance of any horse in the field (1 3/16 miles), I don't have much to say. His 100-point win came in the UAE Derby in Dubai, a race contested over a synthetic surface that hasn't produced any real Derby contender of import, ever. MASTER OF HOUNDS was sixth a few years back, but I think he's the best finisher Aidan O'Brien has shipped over. I don't see LINES OF BATTLE being anywhere close to that quality. His two previous wins had been in sprint races, and he was a well-beaten seventh in his lone U.S. try to date, the BC Juvenile Turf last fall. If you feel like taking a total stab in the dark at something like 50/1, you could probably do worse -- in addition to being bred and already handling a similar distance, he has never run on dirt, so it's possible that he would love it and freak. But you could also buy a lottery ticket with that money, because that’s all you’re doing with LINES OF BATTLE. OFF-TRACK ANALYSIS: Yeah, I'd downgrade this one even more on an off-track. No thanks.
12. ITSMYLUCKYDAY (15/1): In terms of the *best* race any horse in this field has run, ITSMYLUCKYDAY takes the honors as far as I'm concerned. He turned in a speed fig of 111 back on New Year's Day, romping in the one-mile Gulfstream Park Derby. He followed it up with a two-length win in the Holy Bull before taking 60+ days off. He returned as the favorite in the Florida Derby and ultimately finished second to ORB by 2.75 lengths. I don't really view that as a negative, though. At this level of racing, horses coming back and winning off a layoff is tough. Even the "worse" horses are still pretty darn good, so it means a lot that ITSMYLUCKYDAY ran so well and was so well-regarded by bettors in that race. I always like to look at how a horse fares in his second and third races off a layoff, if applicable. For ITSMYLUCKYDAY, the issue is somewhat confused in that he went from dirt to grass, but even with that surface change, he moved up from an 86 fig to a 91 fig. Now, assuming he definitely prefers dirt to turf, you expect an even larger jump had he stayed on dirt. And given the fact that ITSMYLUCKYDAY has already hit such lofty heights, I think he's got plenty of license to improve in the Derby. And he should be close to that likely slow pace. Poking holes in all of that, though, is the fact that he hasn't really beaten anyone of true import. SHANGHAI BOBBY was generally outed as distance-challenged in the Holy Bull and especially the Florida Derby, so, basically, big deal. I'm also not a big Elvis Trujillo guy and wish they had grabbed another jockey. I also have my doubts about him getting the 1.25-mile distance -- his daddy, LAWYER RON, otherwise a pretty darn great horse, was 12th in the 2006 Derby and ninth, second and seventh in subsequent tries at the distance of champions (1.25 miles). He didn't finish worse than third in any other race in his entire career, so you have to hope that the invisible wall LAWYER RON seemed to hit didn't get passed down to his son. Finally, ITSMYLUCKYDAY has been beaten by ORB, GOLDENCENTS and MYLUTE on dirt and CHARMING KITTEN on turf. I like most of what I see on paper here, but he hasn't exactly proven it on the track against the upper echelon of competition. I'm mixed on this one. What might push me over the edge is the report that he has absolutely loved the cooler weather in Kentucky as opposed to what he’s seen in Florida. This is another horse that I just feel is getting somewhat overlooked. OFF-TRACK ANALYSIS: He ran a 103 figure on the slop already. But that was at five furlongs, and his breeding doesn't look good for an off-track. All in all, I can't upgrade or downgrade this one.
13. FALLING SKY (50/1): This horse is fast, sure, but has shown even less staying power than OXBOW. He has finished well back of VERRAZANO and OVERANALYZE in his last two starts. I just don’t really have anything else to say about FALLING SKY. I would pass out from shock if he somehow won. OFF-TRACK ANALYSIS: If it's sloppy fast and speed is holding, I could potentially support taking a flyer on this guy at upwards of 50/1. I would still maybe pass out in shock, but he's already scored his highest speed figure on an off-track, and all of the horses that have beat him listed above came on fast tracks ... so if he's going to be on the lead and the speed is holding and the others regress a bit on the slop ... it's possible.
14. VERRAZANO (4/1): As a horse racing fan that likes buzz around the sport, this is the horse that I would be happy to see dominate and run his career record to 5-for-5. But after his last race, I have questions. He sat just off the pace early but held a length lead by the second call, one that he maintained all the way to the wire, ultimately winning by .75 lengths over a late-charging Normandy Invasion. He did run relatively fast late -- 36.8 seconds over the final three furlongs is by no means blazing, but it's solid enough -- so maybe this race speaks more well of NORMANDY INVASION than it does poorly of VERRAZANO. But I think the general feeling was that VERRAZANO was more than that. After sitting off of slow fractions, he had to fight tooth and nail to win. So that's cause for concern. HOWEVER, I like everything else I see here. He's an on/very-near the pace horse, which is something I deem pretty important in this year's edition of the Derby. He has paired up speed figures in his last two starts, something that's TYPICALLY indicative of another step forward forthcoming (ANIMAL KINGDOM showed this same pattern before the Derby a few years ago). Most importantly, he's one of the few horses that seems at least CAPABLE of brilliance in this field, even if he didn't achieve it in his last race. All reports are that he’s looking great, and he worked strongly with a :59.4 five furlong workout on Saturday. I really have no doubt that he should be the favorite, so the fact that he’s not makes me think he’s worth betting. Some people are knocking his ability to get the distance, but his maternal grandfather was GIANT’S CAUSEWAY, so I don’t get that argument at all. OFF-TRACK ANALYSIS: Seems pretty neutral. Hasn't run on an off-track, though, so if I'm taking a really short price with that question still hanging around, I might pass or at least bet more passively.
15. CHARMING KITTEN - 20 (20/1): Well, OK. This horse hasn’t run on dirt AT ALL. This appears to be a pure case of Derby fever from the owners. Why he’s 20/1 on the morning line is a real head scratcher. I mean, he was sent off at odds of 22/1 in the Blue Grass. CHARMING KITTEN rallied five wide to finish third to JAVA’S WAR. It’s almost impossible to evaluate this horse without any dirt starts, but he is CLEARLY a turf horse and superior on that surface. The best thing I can say about this horse is that he shouldn’t have any issues with the distance and should be coming with some semblance of run at the end. If I thought the pace would be hot I might be willing to take a stab in the dark, but again, I think it will be pretty moderate. I’d bet this one finishes something like seventh just because he does seem like he’ll just keep plodding along. OFF-TRACK ANALYSIS: Doesn't scream upgrade or downgrade either way. Doesn't matter, anyway.
16. ORB (7/2): It took this horse a while to get on track, as he dropped his first three races. Since then, he's 4-for-4, with his first win at a mile to break his maiden. He then won a slow optional claimer before upsetting then-Derby favorite Violence after Violence engaged in a suicidal pace. A nice win, but ORB only was able to win by a half-length, and VIOLENCE came out of the race with a serious injury. So, while VIOLENCE may have indeed just have been that great, it wasn't exactly a great performance from ORB. Winning this race didn't tell me that much. If you're going to back ORB in the Derby, you'd point to his Florida Derby win as all the evidence you need. After sitting fifth and four lengths back at the first call, ORB made a steady move to the front throughout despite a slow pace (like my predicted Derby pace, hint hint) in front of him, winning by 2.75 lengths. That said, ORB has been favored just ONCE in his career, and that was back in his second start. Even though he has proven the bettors wrong four times in a row now (I would like to note that I actually did bet on ORB in the Florida Derby), there's a certain lack of brilliance with this one to me. He's a solid horse, but he's just a grinder. When you watch the Florida Derby, MERIT MAN got a slow pace and couldn't do anything with it, so he didn't exactly beat much there. In fact, ORB looks beaten at the top of the stretch as ITSMYLUCKYDAY spurts away. I think fairly highly of ITSMYLUCKYDAY, but my excuse for that performance is that it was his first race off of a layoff. All in all, ORB's "crowning moment" wasn't really that impressive to me due to that, and as the favorite in the field, it just seems insane. I like his trainer, but so does everyone else, and he’s looked good and shot off a 47.8 half mile without any sweat, but, well, so has everyone else. The final factor is that he’s a high strung horse and already freaked out once on the grounds (apparently kicking the shit out of his stall repeatedly after a loud engine backfired nearby), and he may not handle the enormous crowd all that well. OFF-TRACK ANALYSIS: Same story as VERRAZANO here -- breeding doesn't say upgrade or downgrade, but he's never run on it, so it's hard to take a short price with that question hanging out there.
17. WILL TAKE CHARGE (20/1): He did take a nice step forward in winning the G2 Rebel, posting a 101 speed fig, which was highest by 8 points to date. He was 28-1 there, however, so there's good reason to a) think it may have been a fluke and b) question why anyone would take him at 20/1 in the Kentucky Derby. That race came on March 13, so he'll have been off for 49 days by the time the Derby rolls around. For some trainers, this might not be a huge deal, but D. Wayne Lukas is pretty poor with returning horses who have been away from the track a while. That said, this horse is well-bred and has been clicking off mile workouts, so he might be fit enough. So, let's give him the benefit of the doubt. And let's cross out the sixth-place finish in the Southwest due to the sloppy track. If you do that, you see his speed figs have progressed 91-93-101. He's on the improve, or so it seems. He'll have to take another jump, though, to win, and that's somewhat rare when a horse hits a career high like that. I don't know how he'll handle the distance, either. Seems pretty iffy. The layoff, the fact that the best horse he has beaten is OXBOW, the fact that he hasn’t run at more than 1 1/16 miles … just too many questions here, especially with the wide post. OFF-TRACK ANALYSIS: Well, let's not cross out the sixth-place finish in the Southwest. You would think he likes off tracks due to his breeding, but you have to downgrade him off of that pathetic performance.
18. FRAC DADDY (50/1): My Uncle Bob is on record saying that he will be betting this horse in the Derby, so that should be reason enough for everyone else reading this to think, “AVOID AVOID AVOID!” Anyway, this horse is pretty lucky to be here in my estimation. The first two starts of his three-year-old season were real clunkers -- sixth and seventh-place finishes in the Holy Bull and Florida Derby, where he was beaten by a combined 34.75 lengths and ran figs of 86 and 77, respectively. He got in on the strength of a second-place finish in the Arkansas Derby, where he was 4.25 lengths back of OVERANALYZE. His speed fig? A paltry 92. If you’re backing FRAC DADDY like my Uncle Bob, you’re betting that he’s simply a horse for the course. In two starts at 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs last November -- first in a maiden race on Nov. 3 and then in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes on Nov. 24 -- he ran figs of 101 and 93. The first was a nearly 10-length win to break his maiden, the second was a neck miss to UNCAPTURED. He appeared to back the “horse for the course” idea up in early works and gallops at Churchill last month, but then he’s had a few not-as-impressive days, so who knows at this point. Another positive is that he’s bred to like more ground ... but the negative is that he really hasn’t run like it, losing ground to the winner in the stretch in all but, well, the one race he won. Finally, I’m very much a novice when it comes to evaluating a horse’s stride and matching that up to its preferred surface, but FRAC DADDY has incredibly high motion. I have little doubt that this horse is better suited for turf, and I’m not betting a turf horse to win the Kentucky Derby. OFF-TRACK ANALYSIS: He was second in his lone off-track start, but his daddy really was pretty poor on off tracks, winning just 8% of starts. I'd have to downgrade him even further if it comes up messy.
19. JAVA'S WAR (18/1): This horse is ranked so highly due to the 100 points he earned for winning the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 13. If you decide to back this horse in the Derby, you'll do so because he ran just three lengths behind VERRAZANO in the Tampa Bay Derby and should run all day long. You'll back him because ANIMAL KINGDOM won the Derby in 2011 despite never having run on a dirt surface (to date, Java's War has run on a dirt surface just twice, finishing sixth and then the aforementioned second to VERRAZANO). However, if you're smart, you won't back him. The Blue Grass win at Keeneland is a prestigious race, but it's mostly a turf race -- that's just how the synthetic surface at Keeneland plays. So, essentially, I view this horse as having three turf wins in a total of seven career starts. He was never really close to VERRAZANO in the Tampa Bay Derby, so it's not as if it was a battle to the wire. He was also 32-1 in that race, which you can argue was proven wrong, but I would more happily argue that he just ran past a lot of crappy horses. I wouldn't mind using JAVA'S WAR in exotics just because I think he'll be coming late -- as mentioned, the distance shouldn't bother him whatsoever -- but why would I think he can beat an accomplished group of dirt horses? Post No. 19 isn’t great, but hey -- I’LL HAVE ANOTHER won from there last year, and JAVA’S WAR will likely fall toward the rear of the field, anyway … he’s had humorously bad starts in most of his races, literally walking out of the gate for a few steps. OFF-TRACK ANALYSIS: His daddy, WAR PASS, loved the off tracks, but overall his family history indicates he won't like it so much. I can't move him either way, although if it becomes a cuppy, drying out, tiring surface like what MINE THAT BIRD won on back in 2009, I'd consider this late runner.
20. VYJACK (15/1): The human element surrounding VYJACK screams STAY AWAY. His trainer had a drug-related suspension and couldn't train him for the most part up to his last race, and then his workout schedule got a little screwed up because he couldn't get licensed in Kentucky right away. Then there was an illness that required a course of antibiotics (for VYJACK, not the trainer). Additionally, when he DID get licensed, he had to agree to round-the-clock surveillance. And THEN, when he did finally work, he only managed four furlongs in 51.6 seconds. Sloooow. He later clicked off a 1:00.4 workout at Churchill and made a good initial impression, but he was apparently being coaxed very hard to do that. Oh, and guess what? His half-brother is GOLDENCENTS, with both sons of INTO MISCHIEF with HARLAN'S HOLIDAY their grandpappy. So there's the distance question with him, as well. ON THE OTHER HAND, he does have a better foundation for distance on his damside, and he has finished all his races much more strongly than GOLDENCENTS, so I don't feel as if I can toss him out due to distance by any means. Additionally, he was undefeated before his length defeat to VERRAZANO in the Wood Memorial, so this is a serious racehorse. If he had gotten a faster pace to run into, maybe he gets there. Granted, NORMANDY INVASION ran by him, anyway, but I still thought VYJACK was more impressive on the whole than VERRAZANO. VYJACK is also in his third race off the layoff and paired speed figures in his first two races, so I think he's ready to take another step forward. Finally, he changes jockeys from Joel Rosario to Garrett Gomez. Rosario is a great jockey, but Gomez is a great mid-pack guy. He just is. I think he fits this horse beautifully. The problem with all of that … post No. 20. Yikes. I truly had pretty much talked myself in to VYJACK, and then he got hung out wide. Now I think he almost has to go early and be closer than I would have preferred, and all of those negatives are sticking a lot more strongly in my mind. Ugh. Tough one to figure. OFF-TRACK ANALYSIS: I'd upgrade this one as he has run his best race on a sloppy track, and again, if he guns for the lead from post 20 and the speed is holding, he could certainly go all the way.
So, let’s start with what I view as pure tosses (i.e. horses with no chance to win the race):
BLACK ONYX
OXBOW
GOLDEN SOUL
GIANT FINISH
LINES OF BATTLE
FALLING SKY
CHARMING KITTEN
Now, the longer shots that I could see maybe winning but are unlikely to be worth betting:
WILL TAKE CHARGE
FRAC DADDY
JAVA’S WAR
Overbet horses that could certainly win but aren’t as likely to win as the odds imply:
REVOLUTIONARY
NORMANDY INVASION
GOLDENCENTS
ORB
Horses that I kinda sorta maybe like:
MYLUTE
VYJACK
My “best bets:”
ITSMYLUCKYDAY
OVERANALYZE
PALACE MALICE
VERRAZANO
Someone asked me the other day, “So, who do you think is going to win the Derby?” My response was, “Gosh, if I have to pick just one horse, regardless of value? It has to be VERRAZANO. He’s the most likely winner, so I guess that makes him my ‘pick.’”
There’s a brilliance about him and a determination about him that I certainly respect. I would be really surprised if he didn’t at least finish close -- being a horse that figures to be near the pace, he’s not the type that should need to worry about “getting a trip” like last year’s favorite, UNION RAGS, a horse that struggled with traffic en route to a mid-pack finish.
I do find it relatively insane that he’s not the morning line favorite. But hey, I love it. I have little to no doubt that your most likely path to winning “some” money on the Derby is by betting VERRAZANO.
That said, betting is really about VALUE, i.e. what rate of return can you get on your money? And to that question I would have to say PALACE MALICE. His potential appears boundless, his tactical speed seems perfect, his running style and pedigree are there … I kind of love it that he HASN’T put it together on the track yet, because we’re getting an insane price on what may be the most talented horse in the field.
So, yeah, I have three Pletcher horses in my top four. But obviously I’ll be closely watching the odds … I do think REVOLUTIONARY, for instance, is more likely to win than OVERANALYZE … but since I see OVERANALYZE going off in that 15/1 range whereas I see REVOLUTIONARY going off at more like 7/1 or 8/1, OVERANALYZE offers more value.
All in all, then, if you ask me "who's your Derby horse?" I will respond by saying PALACE MALICE.
BONUS: Kentucky Oaks Breakdown!
For a second straight year, the Kentucky Oaks is much more interesting than the Kentucky Derby. There are any number of fillies that might have been the favorites in the Derby had their connections elected to run them against the boys and earn the points necessary to get in. If this were like past years when only graded stakes winnings would matter, I’m pretty sure we would have at least two and possibly up to four or even five fillies interested in trying the Derby. That’s how good this group is. To wit:
UNLIMITED BUDGET is undefeated in four starts and has never won by less than 1.25 lengths.
MIDNIGHT LUCKY is undefeated in two starts and has never won by less than SEVEN lengths. Granted, she hasn’t beaten much in these two starts, but she also destroyed POWER BROKER in a recent work. POWER BROKER has ultimately been disappointing, but he was a Derby contender until recently.
DREAMING OF JULIA ran one of the best races you’ll ever see in her last-out, destroying a strong field by 21.75 lengths. I heard it called the most impressive performance seen in 20 years, period, so that’s obviously saying a lot.
CLOSE HATCHES is undefeated in three starts.
BEHOLDER was the 2-year-old filly champion and has won 4 of her last 5.
Yeah, this race is absolutely unbelievable. You’re going to get some insane prices on some really good horses. People are going to say, “I can’t believe was 12/1!”
Anyway, no horse by horse breakdown for this one because people just generally don’t care as much, but here’s my overall take:
As questionable as the Derby pace might be, there is no question in this one: It’s going to be FAST FAST FAST. As many as eight horses figure to at least contest it.
So, my first order of business is to eliminate any horse that hasn’t won without being on or within a length of the lead at the second call. Goodbye to:
SILSITA, MIDNIGHT LUCKY, BEHOLDER, DREAMING OF JULIA, ROSE TO GOLD
Yes, I realize that I just eliminated the three probable favorites in DREAMING OF JULIA, MIDNIGHT LUCKY and BEHOLDER. But again, this pace is going to be so hot, and none of these horses have won from off the pace before. So if they’re on the pace, they’ll get cooked, and if they’re off it, will they like dirt in their face? Past results say no, or at least that we don’t know, but it’s enough for me to toss them.
That leaves us with:
UNLIMITED BUDGET, SEANEEN GIRL, PRINCESS OF SYLMAR, PURE FUN and CLOSE HATCHES.
I’m comfortable tossing PRINCESS OF SYLMAR because her speed figures have been relatively poor and she’s not exactly a “sit back” type, so she’ll be close enough to the pace for it to do her in.
SEANEEN GIRL is a little better off and if I was looking for a price in exotics I might include her, but she lost ground in the stretch to UNLIMITED BUDGET last out despite being further off a hot pace, so it’s hard to see her suddenly beating that one, especially since she’s still generally been somewhat close up.
CLOSE HATCHES won her last out 1 1/8 while on the lead in a hotly paced race, but so have other horses here. She only made the first cut due to her maiden debut win, but since she has been on the lead in her last two, I’m pretty comfortable tossing her — although she at least has shown that she can win in a fast race at this distance, so that puts her a cut above many of the others to me.
That leaves us with two horses: UNLIMITED BUDGET and PURE FUN.
UNLIMITED BUDGET has already won at 1 1/8 miles, but that was on the lead last fall. Instead, I’m looking at the G2 Rachel Alexandra as reason to bet her. She sat back nine lengths off a blistering pace early, moved up to be within three lengths at the second call, led by four at the top of the stretch and sustained that lead to the wire. I think she wins if she can duplicate that move again and is definitely my “most likely to win” horse.
PURE FUN is … interesting. This is the ONLY horse in the field that I would trust to definitely be 5+ lengths off the pace. Of course, in her lone dirt route try at a mile at Churchill, she was on the lead by the second call, so … maybe not. But that dirt race was arguably the best of her career, so maybe she loves Churchill and maybe she loves the dirt. And since she figures to be well out of it early, I don’t see how you could ignore her.
So, those are my two horses for the Kentucky Oaks. I’ll probably just do small win bets on each, but if I wanted to try something exotic, I’d go with those two and MIDNIGHT LUCKY just because that’s one incredibly talented filly who hasn’t run much, so she may be able to do something she just hasn’t had to yet. My next horse would be DREAMING OF JULIA on top of those three in some exotic — she was just too good in her last race to leave out and get beat by her.
