Triple Crown fever is upon us.
As such, this will lack the pomp and circumstance that typically accompanies my previews. Let's just jump right in with an 8-1 reverse order of win likelihood:
8. FRAMMENTO: I will admit that I drank the Nick Zito Kool-Aid before the Derby. He was so high on him and said so many good things that I ignored the raw numbers and said that he actually had a reasonable shot. Well, no. Zito said he's a "true stayer," and based on how evenly he ran in the Derby, maybe that's true. But the idea that he could fall 14 lengths back and then come with a big run late here is just really hard to fathom. I don't even think I would use him in exotics at this point.
7. KEEN ICE: The pedigree is one of the better ones as he's by CURLIN out of an AWESOME AGAIN mare. And, given that, I would say you should use him at the bottom of your exotic plays. That said, there are plenty of horses that can run 1.5 miles ... but can he run fast enough to be competitive here? He's 1-for-8 lifetime, and given how poorly his type of late speed plays in races that are this long, it's hard to imagine him closing with aplomb to win no matter how fast they go early.
6. MUBTAAHIJ: Remains a total mystery to me. A very ho hum Derby that may have been impacted by a dead-ish rail, or maybe not. The positive way to look at him is to say that he needed a race in this country and some time to adjust before being ready to fire his best shot, and his distance pedigree looks great. The negative way to look at him is to say that the distance pedigree is inflated by most of those offspring running in longer races to begin with, and that the Derby showcased that all he really ever did overseas was beat up on inferior horses. Gun to my head, I think the performance of DORTMUND in the Preakness kind of threw out the idea that the rail was that bad a place to be on Derby day, and MUBTAAHIJ just isn't quite good enough at this level.
5. TALE OF VERVE: This horse, along with the previous two, could all be swapped depending on my mood, but ultimately I think there's more potential here. He has a similar solid pedigree; even though TALE OF EKATI has mostly thrown sprinting types, 2008-era Bob Wothe picked the eventual sixth-place Belmont finisher to win the Belmont in the pages of the Washington County Daily News given his own pedigree, so I think there's hope here. Additionally, he's flashed more early pace than KEEN ICE (and been faster in the mornings), had to go wide and check in the Preakness, and still made up 10 lengths on AMERICAN PHAROAH in the final mile or so of that race. Rosario knows Belmont very well, so that's another advantage here. Of the true longshots, this is definitely my preference.
4. MATERIALITY: Upsetting the apple cart again here a bit with my dim view of this one. He had a horrible start in the Derby that put him behind horses where he's never been before, and then he had to go wide as he picked off horses coming down the stretch, making up more than three lengths on the leaders to finish a solid sixth. As one of the lone horses to close at all in the Derby, that's noteworthy. The pedigree also looks very nice. But for whatever reason, I felt like the Preakness would have been a better shot for him, and I think the race dynamics don't work out so well for him here. He's probably the truest pace challenger for AP, so he sort of *has* to go early. AP and others might let another longer shot go on the lead if someone else went for it, but I don't see MATERIALITY getting free lunch if he looks like he might be all alone. From that pedigree perspective he does look great, but I think he's more likely to act as a sacrificial lamb than be the winner.
3. MADEFROMLUCKY: Huh? How is Pletcher's other horse ahead of MATERIALITY? Simple: I think he has every bit as good a shot at likely three times the price. In fact, I think it's more likely that MATERIALITY and AMERICAN PHAROAH burn each other out on the lead and MADEFROMLUCKY comes from in behind them to pick up the pieces than MATERIALITY somehow putting away AMERICAN PHAROAH and rolling on home to win. I also think, depending on the draw, that MADEFROMLUCKY gets the "Commissioner trip" from last year where the rest of the field lets a longer shot lope along on the lead and he takes them all the way. I don't think other horses will let MATERIALITY get away on the lead by himself, but they might let MADEFROMLUCKY go if things work out that way. Speed figure wise, his 99 fig in the last race was on par with what AP did in the Derby and Preakness, and other than a 107 from FROSTED in the Wood and a 105 from MATERIALITY in the Florida Derby (p.s. I don't buy that number for MATERIALITY at all), that's on par with their best performances, too. At 15-1(ish), MADEFROMLUCKY is the value play if you buy into his continual improvement with Pletcher's impeccable Belmont record.
2. AMERICAN PHAROAH: OK, stop scoffing. Throw away all of the hype and superlatives and I have some serious questions. 1) Can Victor Espinoza actually win at Belmont? He's 4/73 lifetime? Granted, numbers can say a lot things, and maybe of his 73 mounts, you would only expect him to win about 4 times. But ... that's unlikely given the quality of mounts a jockey of his caliber gets? Is it statistically significant either way? Probably not, but it's something to keep in mind. 2) Can AMERICAN PHAROAH run 1.5 miles on a dry track? Listen, if the track comes up sloppy, he might as well be 1/9 as he obviously loves the stuff. But on a fast track, I have serious questions about his pedigree getting him the distance. 3) Does Baffert know what he's doing? Not training him over the Belmont surface was officially due to the fact that he liked Churchill and didn't get sore running over it, so why run the risk that he wouldn't like Belmont and get sore? On its face, it actually makes a lot of sense to me. But others aren't so sure. Does this mean he actually *is* a bit sore? Will he show up and not be comfortable by race time? 4) Who did he beat in the Preakness? FIRING LINE hated the slop just as much as you would have expected him to. DORTMUND looked over the top and not totally comfortable. TALE OF VERVE, a horse still eligible for a N2L, ran second, narrowly beating out a G3 winner in DIVINING ROD. So, you know ... he didn't really beat anyone.
With all of that said, let's bring the hype back in. Baffert has been saying since before the Derby that this horse is "different," and all along the whispers about how he always knew AP was better than DORTMUND have been there. His workouts have continued to be absolutely amazing, and there are no whispers of weight loss like there were with CALIFORNIA CHROME last year. Just watching him run ... it's quite literally like he's floating or skipping or whatever you want to call it. He just barely seems to touch the ground. He's surely not the only horse in history to look that good, but he's the best mover I can remember seeing. I can't advocate betting him at what will likely be 3/5 or so, but I'll be there, and I would love to celebrate history. And yet ...
1. FROSTED: He had a generally horrible trip in the Derby, getting shuffled back early and then going impossibly wide turning for home, yet he only finished three lengths back of AP. He should relish the extra distance being by TAPIT out of a DEPUTY MINISTER mare, he ran well in a Belmont start last fall (i.e. he doesn't mind the track), he has a very strong Belmont-based rider in Rosario, a great trainer .. what's not to like? I think the "public" will knock him from being a "closer," but really, when you look at his form, that's not really the case. He was four lengths off the pace in the Wood — that's not exactly a deep closer's territory. The Derby doesn't really count for the same reason that we're not calling MATERIALITY a closer heading into this race. He has been working lights out. He's more rested than AP. His best speed figure is higher than AP's. And the Derby performance can be excused due to a) the trip and b) the possibility of a slight bounce after that Wood performance (he went from 107 to 96 in speed fig). On his best day, at least by the numbers, he has been better than AP. And given that he's had a month-long break and AP hasn't, along with all of the above ... I truly think he has a better chance of winning this race.
RECAP:
It feels a little bit silly to put FROSTED ahead of AMERICAN PHAROAH, but my ultimate rationale was this: If I put these two horses side by side in a blind comparison (Horse A vs. Horse B style), who would I take? And the answer is undoubtedly FROSTED. I just think he'll like the distance so much more than AP will, and there are so many fewer questions coming into the race, as well. He's not running his third race in five weeks, etc.
From a gambling perspective, all I can really advocate for is win bets on FROSTED and MADEFROMLUCKY, and maybe an exacta box with those two and MATERIALITY. In the long-term, I have little doubt that exotics with AP out of the tri are winners, but good luck filling those, and good luck winning.
Theoretically, my trifecta would be:
FROSTED-MADEFROMLUCKY-MATERIALITY with FROSTED-MADEFROMLUCKY-MATERIALITY with ALL
That's only an $18 bet, so maybe I will give that a shot. Even throwing AP into the second spot would be $27, so that's also reasonable. I would not put AP in the top spot because I can guarantee plenty of people are playing AP-ALL-ALL for $21 and hoping a few longshots come in for the scraps. You might "win" that bet and still lose money.
To review last year's payouts, the $1 exacta of 9-1 TONALIST over 27-1 COMMISSIONER paid $174, whereas the $0.50 trifecta of TONALIST-COMMISSIONER and 26-1 MEDAL COUNT was $1695.25. Of course, that was an 11-horse field — so the payouts should be more muted no matter what happens this year — but it seems like it's worth the extra bucks to play the trifecta than the exacta. The 10-cent super last year was $380,80 with CALIFORNIA CHROME in fourth and $572.85 with WICKED STRONG (you may remember that they dead heated).
So, OK, I will play that trifecta I suppose (that's called stream of conciousness bet structuring). Official plays:
WIN: $50 FROSTED
WIN: $50 MADEFROMLUCKY
TRIFECTA: $27 FROSTED-MADEFROMLUCKY-MATERIALITY with AMERICAN PHAROAH-FROSTED-MADEFROMLUCKY-MATERIALITY with ALL
1 comment:
Silly doesn't even begin to describe the idea that the floating horse doesn't have the best chance to win Saturday. Best of luck on your wagers, friend.
Post a Comment