WPS SOCIAL INCLUSION
Trifecta: CAL CHROME/SOCIAL INCLUSION over CAL CHROME, SOCIAL INCLUSION, BAYERN, BAYERN, RIA ANTONIA, KID CRUZ, RIDE ON CURLIN over CAL CHROME, SOCIAL INCLUSION, BAYERN, BAYERN, RIA ANTONIA, KID CRUZ, RIDE ON CURLIN
The good news today is that I'm not going to be all that pissed at myself no matter what happens because I pretty clearly have no clue here. SOCIAL INCLUSION is the play because he's the only real value I see at the current odds -- if it wasn't *THE PREAKNESS* I would expect CALIFORNIA CHROME to be even money (not 3/5) and SOCIAL INCLUSION to be 2-1 or 3-1.
5/16 update: After reviewing the form, I actually can't really see RIA ANTONIA winning this thing. I still she's useful in exotics, but she hasn't even closed that strongly in any of her races. A lot of folks seem to like KID CRUZ because of his late punch, but I'd actually rather upgrade RIDE ON CURLIN — KID CRUZ is jumping in the deep end here, and for him to win against these at first asking would be pretty amazing. RIDE ON CURLIN, on the other hand, has run quite respectably and had a ton of trouble in the Derby yet still ran on admirably. I'm swapping RIDE ON CURLIN and RIA ANTONIA.
Some fairly quick Preakness thoughts (at least by my standards) in case my second child is born at some point this week and I don't have the opportunity to get more in-depth:
Prior to the Kentucky Derby, I told everyone who would listen that I thought if California Chrome won the Derby, we would be looking at a possible Triple Crown at the Belmont because there was no way he would lose at Pimlico with the speed-favoring nature of that track and his style.
Well ... I kind of sort of changed my mind on that one.
The probable Preakness field is *loaded* with speed, and the speed in this race is -- to me -- of a higher caliber than the speed that signed on for the Derby. While I happily dismissed horses like WILDCAT RED and GENERAL A ROD and so on in the Derby, I can't do that quite so easily with horses like SOCIAL INCLUSION and BAYERN. Those are real horses. And that's to say nothing of PABLO DEL MONTE, who actually had the chance to run in the Derby but skipped it due to post position #20 with the idea being to point to this spot. And then there's RING WEEKEND, an impressive front running victor in the Tampa Bay Derby earlier this year.
And then there's truly *new shooters* in terms of stepping on the big stage like KID CRUZ and DYNAMIC IMPACT, both of whom I think just clearly lack the flat-out class.
All in all, the good news for CALIFORNIA CHROME is that all of the speed means he doesn't have to do the dirty work and keep a horse honest on the lead -- he should be able to sit the same sort of trip he did in the Derby.
The bad news is that he could get caught up in it anyway, and also that Pimlico has been speed-favoring enough in the past that I could see SOCIAL INCLUSION battling off other early speed types and still holding on (see SHACKLEFORD in 2011 after setting splits of 22 and 46 and change).
Again, not a ton of time here, so I'll break it into tiers as far as *win probability* once again. Listed along with each horse is the current Vegas odds:
FORGET IT:
10. DYNAMIC IMPACT 8/1: Coooome on. 8/1, really?!? There's no way. He beat a decent MIDNIGHT HAWK to win the Illinois Derby by a nose, but that was on the lead with a moderate pace. I'd need 28/1 to consider this one.
9. GENERAL A ROD 12/1: There seems to be some school of thought that he's going to run much better at Pimlico with a better trip, but I think all a better trip gives him is a chance to be in a speed duel against better horses. My thoughts from the Derby remain the same on this one.
8. RING WEEKEND 30/1: Very disappointing effort last out at Calder against much lesser than these. He still would have made the Derby field but spiked a fever and ultimately skipped it, leaving him pointed here. Even on his best day, I don't know that he belongs at this level. His win in the Tampa Bay Derby was over VINCEREMOS, who was 17th in the Derby. That said, Graham Motion is a genius and can do wonders with that kind of time off; the question is if he's ready for 1 3/16 miles off the bench, and even if he is, does it make a difference? I highly doubt it, but I'll give him a better shot than the other two here.
POSSIBLE EXOTIC USE:
7. KID CRUZ 20/1: Came with a withering run to win the Private Terms stakes at Laurel in last-to-first fashion, then sat off a slow pace and won the Federico Tesio stakes at Pimlico with ease. But the pace in both of those races was so incredibly slow ... to think he'll go much longer and much faster early and have the same punch at the end is pretty silly.
6. RIDE ON CURLIN 8/1: He again belongs on exotics -- especially with his style in this pace-laden field -- but I can't imagine him winning this race. His daddy did win the Preakness many years ago, but again, he's just lacked that brilliance, and there are actually more brilliant horses here than there were in the Derby. The other questionable thing here is that it sounds like he'll be closer to the pace -- the trainer was unhappy with the ride he got from Calvin Borel in the Derby -- so I still don't have a ton of confidence in this one.
5. PABLO DEL MONTE 20/1: Might be kind of interesting in a field with no pace, but as it is ... it's hard to see. His effort on the lead in the Blue Grass was fairly impressive, but ultimately it reminded me of HANSEN a few years back -- well run given the surface and shape of the race, but ultimately likely a red herring. He may have more in the tank and run huge here, but again, even if he does, I doubt he wins. His two dirt efforts to date have been on the speed-favoring Gulfstream strip, but he hasn't been capable of getting to the lead there ... so, in general, his dirt starts haven't shown he has the legit ability on dirt to belong here. But if his connections had enough sense to skip the Derby (which is almost unheard of these days), they're at least being sensible about it and I'll give him a solid *possibly.*
THE INTRIGUING PROSPECTS:
4. BAYERN 10/1: He was all out to win the Derby Trial the week prior to the Derby, and that was against much lesser competition than he'll face here (and he ultimately got DQ'd due to drifting out and impeding his competition in the stretch. Baffert is awfully high on him and seemed to want to run him in the Derby as opposed to CHITU ... but I'm not sold on his chances. Not with this pace set up and this competition. Baffert ran in the Trial in the hopes of getting enough points to make the Derby, so it's not as if we can use the "not fully cranked" excuse. As the fifth choice at 10/1, I don't hate him, but he's just really up against it here.
3. RIA ANTONIA 50/1: 50/1! 50/1! A filly taking on the boys. Why is the sixth-place finisher in the Kentucky Oaks trying the boys here? Well, I'm not exactly sure -- and as I'm writing this, I'm kind of asking myself, "Do I really think she can win this?" And I'm going to say YES. The case against her is pretty simple: She hasn't beaten anywhere near these kinds of colts, her only real big win to date was in a race that completely fell apart, she is, again, a filly trying the boys, etc. If you follow horse racing like I do, you'll find a million people saying she has no shot and that they hope she won't be hurt. Even her new trainer is sounding pessimistic, saying something like, "Whatever the plan for her is, we think she's doing great." In other words, it sounds like the owner is pushing for this for no real reason ... possibly why he took her from Baffert after the Oaks and gave her to Tom Amoss.
The case for her is also pretty simple: I think she's the only *true* closer in this field. KID CRUZ did in one race, but was more of a pressing position in his last. She'll likely be the longest shot in the field -- her Oaks effort was so uninspiring that I just can't believe most will give her a second look. And, finally, it's just such a weird move that it's either completely dumb or dumb like a fox. No filly has run in this race since the incomparable Rachel Alexandra won it in 2009 (awesome race, by the way -- "MINE THAT BIRD runs at her late" is one of my all-time favorite calls), so it's not like most owners/trainers go around tossing random fillies into this race. I'm willing to take a chance that these connections know something or at least know what they're doing somewhat and a have a good feeling that she'll run well. She continues to work very well as she did in the days leading up to the Oaks; not sure if that's a good sign or a bad sign, then, given the flop that was her Oaks run.
2. SOCIAL INCLUSION 6/1: This is the one horse I could see just being legit *better* than CALIFORNIA CHROME even with both of them on their best days. He has only lost once, and that was his first time facing a bunch of adversity and a field of real quality. He looked like he was gone at the top of the stretch but grew weary. That said, he romped so impressively in his first few starts that it's possible he's just amazingly good. The negatives: Had a foot problem that kept him out of a prep race on Derby Day; has the same hurdle of RING WEEKEND in terms of going 1 3/16 off the bench. Figure to be right on/very close to the lead in a hotly contested pace. Should absolutely be the second choice, but I'm not sure exactly how short is *too* short. If he hadn't had the foot problem and layoff, I think I would actually make him my stone cold pick here; those issues, however, are concerning enough to say he just belongs in the conversation.
SUMMARY: The Preakness is, historically speaking, won by the best horse. The best example that comes to mind is LOOKIN AT LUCKY in 2010; after a miserable trip in the Kentucky Derby, he showed up at Pimlico and won without much doubt. There have been so many Triple Crown tries recently because that's just how the track plays -- very true. The best horses win the most races at Pimlico.
The best horse is very likely CALIFORNIA CHROME. But SOCIAL INCLUSION is pretty interesting at 6/1 vs. 3/5. In fact, if he wasn't having the foot issue and/or had a race in him recently, I would be inclined to almost call it a tossup.
But he is, and so I generally don't have a ton of doubt that CALIFORNIA CHROME will win this race relatively easily. He should sit 5th or so, maybe 4-5 lengths off of the early leaders as they beat each other up on the front end. He'll respond willingly, open up on them as everyone else falls apart, and won't find much of anything running at him late.
I've liked the idea of RIA ANTONIA since I heard she was running, but I'll admit that I've cooled on her in recent days. The owner just seems insane.
With that said, the preliminary play in my head is:
Exacta wheel RIA ANTONIA with the field = $36
Trifecta: Intriguing Prospects over Intriguing Prospects + It Could Maybe Happen? + Possible Exotic Use over Intriguing Prospects + It Could Maybe Happen? + Possible Exotic Use = $60
Superfecta: Intriguing Prospects over Intriguing Prospects + It Could Maybe Happen? + Possible Exotic Use over Intriguing Prospects + It Could Maybe Happen? + Possible Exotic Use over Intriguing Prospects + It Could Maybe Happen? + Possible Exotic Use = $48
In other words, the idea is pretty much to play against DYNAMIC IMPACT, GENERAL A ROD and RING WEEKEND. What could possibly go wrong?
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