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| I'm taking my chances with DEPARTING to be looking back at ORB's failed Triple Crown bid. |
There are places overseas that allow you to make bets on horses DURING a race, which is such a crazy concept I can't even begin to wrap my head around it. Anyway, if I was able, I would have dropped a mortgage payment on ORB after I saw PALACE MALICE run off to set the pace and lay down a 45.33 half mile.
All of my pre-race analysis was based upon the fact that the race was "more likely to have a reasonable half-mile split (I’m calling reasonable :47 and up) than not."
I ultimately played win bets on PALACE MALICE (bigger), OVERANALYZE, VERRAZANO, VYJACK, ITSMYLUCKYDAY (smaller), and then played exactas with ORB, REVOLUTIONARY, NORMANDY INVASION and MYLUTE over the above.
It's easy to say, in retrospect, that I should have played the field under my exacta horses after GOLDEN SOUL paid something like $900 underneath ORB, but that would have increased the cost quite a bit and I really thought GOLDEN SOUL had little chance (and he didn't unless the pace fell apart like it did). There was some stat that the horses running 1-2-3-4-5 at the second call finished 15-6-17-18-19 or something crazy like that, and I had four of those five horses. Extremely impressive.
So, obviously, I was just way off on this race. That happens. You hope it doesn't happen in a race that you wrote 12 pages about and publicized to the world, but it happens. And, of course, I did note that there was a *chance* that it might be hotter than expected. That said, I would have bet just about anything against PALACE MALICE being on the lead. I thought he, along with OVERANALYZE, would be the two that would benefit the most from the hot pace up front.
But, hey, I was just completely wrong. Dead, dead wrong.
Given the various question marks around ORB, I don't regret looking elsewhere. That said, you can look at his win in one of two ways:
1. ORB was much, much, MUCH the best. He went something like three-wide in the first turn and six-wide turning for home and still won pretty darn easily. He overcame a huge crowd, the slop in his face, the distance ... and won with style. He didn't seem to be tiring at all — he just rolled around the rest of the horses and won without a problem.
2. He got a perfect setup. He sat well back off that radioactive (credit: Randy Moss) pace, stayed out of traffic on the inside, and made his move on the best (fastest) part of the track. As was noted before the race, the rail and then paths 6 on out seemed to be the best. It seemed much more thick in paths 2-5.
Now, look. I think ORB is very good. I doubted him before the Derby and he proved me wrong. I think there's a solid chance that he may just be much better than any of the horses slated to meet him this Saturday. He also turned in a workout so great Monday that everyone who witnessed it apparently now worships at the altar of ORB.
But since ORB will probably be even money (I would be shocked if he was 2-1 and think it's likely that he goes off at 4-5 or so), I'm going to look elsewhere once again.
It was obvious that no horse close to the pace in the Derby had even half of a chance. Speed often carries in the slop, and it's possible that Mike Smith was going for that (the official explanation is that the blinkers caused PALACE MALICE to just gun it on his own and Smith was powerless to fight him, but there's also an interesting conspiracy theory that PALACE MALICE, trained by Todd Pletcher, was set up as a "rabbit" to set the fast pace to benefit fast-closing REVOLUTIONARY, also trained by Pletcher, but that seems a bit out there to me), but seriously, no horse near the pace had a hope. OXBOW was the only horse close that ran on well (finished sixth), but he was on the rail the whole way and probably benefitted from a sloppy track pedigree-wise. Everyone else was TOAST.
The fact that GOLDEN SOUL ran second tells me that this race probably wasn't all that representative of reality. Yes, there's a good chance that ORB would have won even with a slower pace, but the Derby completely fell apart. When horses like GOLDEN SOUL clunk up to run second, I'm willing to hold the full results in question.
Addtionally, the final time of the Derby was SLOW. The first three quarters went in 1:09.8. That's flying. The final half mile? An interminable 53 seconds. Granted, it was ORB's turn move that made the difference and was much faster than the field as a whole, but ORB still ran the final quarter in 25.88 seconds. NOW, that was better than any other horse in the field, of course, but that's not the mark of a super horse by any means.
The bottom line is that ORB strikes me as good, not great. So I'm looking for other "good" horses.
I do have one toss right off the bat:
TITLETOWN FIVE is one I'm definitely willing to leave off my tickets. He should be on or right near the lead, and his only win to date was in a maiden race. He finished ninth in the Derby Trial on April 27, which was a last-ditch effort by his connections to make the Derby. If anything gives me pause, it's that he has Julien Leparaoux aboard, who is generally known for his skill in getting horses to relax off the pace, but it's not as if his horses are never on the lead. Whatever this horse does, he has no shot.
As for the rest of the field ... you could probably make a case for pretty much every horse. That said, I'm breaking down this race with the idea that the pace will be FAST. Pimlico is known as a speed-favoring track (overplayed, but it's the widely-held belief and there's some merit to it), and I think TITLETOWN FIVE's presence all but ensures a fast pace unless they just let him go. They very well might do that, but I think a number of horses will want to be on the lead here.
So, I'll move on to a few others I'm tossing right away:
GOLDENCENTS appeared to hate the sloppy going and more or less lost the race at the break when he got shuffled back and took some mud in his face. He was 17th by the time the field hit the stretch and was eased late. For that reason, I guess, he's running back here. Well ... I don't really get it. Granted, he was close to that crazy pace scenario, but as I repeat every year, the Preakness is not that much shorter than the Derby. 1 3/16 vs. 1 1/4 miles. Everyone always treats it like it's SO much shorter. Sure, results at 1/8 mile are more predictive than results at 1 1/4 miles for this tweener distance, but I'LL HAVE ANOTHER caught BODEMEISTER in that final sixteenth last year, so it's still additional ground and not much shorter than the Derby. And I didn't think GOLDENCENTS could get the Derby distance, so I don't think he can get the Preakness distance ... especially not while fighting for the lead.
I thought GOVERNOR CHARLIE might be interesting at a price in the Derby, but then he had a foot problem that caused Bob Baffert to skip the race. He has had some nice workouts since -- :59.6 for five furlongs on May 2, 1:11.4 for six furlongs on May 7, 1:10.8 for six furlongs on Monday. But that tells me he might be OVERLY sharp. His two career wins (in three starts) have been frontrunning victories, so he'll either be battling with TITLETOWN FIVE and GOLDENCENTS, or he'll be trying to do something he has never done at a distance he's never run. It's a big ask at a price that won't be as high as it would have been in the Derby.
ITSMYLUCKYDAY was the grossest Derby disappointment to me. I had bet him for smaller because his odds dropped to what I deemed almost unacceptable, but he seemed to get a fairly dreamy trip. He sat a bit off the pace, seventh and seven lengths back at the second call, but he just chucked it in late. I did note, however, that his sloppy track form came at five furlongs, which makes it somewhat hard to judge affinity for surface, and his breeding indicated he would not like it. That said, I think his price will be too low again, and ORB has comfortably beaten him twice in two very different pace scenarios. I'll be pretty disappointed if he wins this time and I didn't stick with him, but I think I'm more likely to save money by looking past him. I think he'll run fairly better than in the Derby and is a lower-end exotics contender, but he's off-form and I would be pretty surprised if he won.
Now, some horses I'm not willing to dismiss right away:
OXBOW, to me, ran the most impressive race in the Derby. He was second at the second call despite that ridiculous pace and ran on really well to finish sixth. Of those top-five Derby horses, he was the one that stayed on. There's a decent chance he's just a mud-lover, but I can't discount what he did there. Of the horses that figure to be close to the pace here, he's the one I like the most -- and he'll likely be the highest price, too. I'll be betting him.
There was also a lot to like about WILL TAKE CHARGE's Derby run. He was moving more or less together with ORB around the turn and into the stretch before getting checked BADLY when running into a fading VERRAZANO. He finished eighth but deserved much better. Additionally, he did all of that on a track that we previously thought he hated. He bounced out of the Derby, too, with a stronger four furlong work than we have ever seen from him, covering four furlongs in :48.2 on Monday. He's the definite "wise guy" play, but I also think he was just going to be passing tiring horses in the stretch.
If I had to come out and name the "second-best" horse in the field, I'd say it's DEPARTING. If ORB possibly has a "peer" in this field, it's DEPARTING. They strike me as incredibly similar horses. DEPARTING has won four of five starts and patiently skipped the Derby to instead run in the Illinois Derby (a comfortable win) and run in the Preakness. So, he's a fresher ORB in my opinion, and the race should set up perfectly for him. My only black mark against him is a 50.4 second workout Monday, but he's done that occasionally in the past and still gone on to win races. His third-place finish in the Louisiana Derby (beaten by REVOLUTIONARY and MYLUTE) is excusable because he was just 2.75 lengths off a hot pace and four-wide in the second turn. Yeah, I'll be betting this one.
MYLUTE more or less paired up speed figs in the Derby, backing up his 105 in the Louisiana Derby with a 107 in the Derby. He flattened out late a bit, but it was still a pretty impressive and even run to finish fifth, beaten less than four lengths.
So, I'm not betting TITLETOWN FIVE, GOLDENCENTS, GOVERNOR CHARLIE, ITSMYLUCKYDAY or ORB to win.
I am betting DEPARTING and OXBOW.
I'm somewhat uncertain of what to do with WILL TAKE CHARGE and MYLUTE. I think they're both good horses and contenders for the exotics, but it's hard for me to see them getting up to win the dang thing. They're the same kind of mid-rear pack horse that DEPARTING and ORB are -- in other words, the same things that could benefit WILL TAKE CHARGE and MYLUTE will benefit ORB and DEPARTING -- so I find it difficult to envision a scenario in which WILL TAKE CHARGE or MYLUTE wins.
That said, here is how I expect the race to shape up:
TITLETOWN FIVE breaks on top and is pressed by GOVERNOR CHARLIE as they head into the first turn. The first quarter mile goes in less than 23 seconds as GOLDENCENTS follows closely behind and OXBOW is just off his flank in fourth.
ITSMYLUCKYDAY is next with DEPARTING on his outside in the clear. Then it's WILL TAKE CHARGE and ORB together, with MYLUTE trailing the field.
As the field enters the far turn, TITLETOWN FIVE shows signs of fading after three quarters in 1:11 flat while GOVERNOR CHARLIE goes on to take the lead. OXBOW is moving well as he moves clear of GOLDENCENTS, who is also fading a bit. ITSMYLUCKYDAY appears even-paced as DEPARTING looms ominously. ORB is still patiently ridden, as is WILL TAKE CHARGE. MYLUTE still trails.
A new leader takes over at the top of the stretch as OXBOW has moved to the outside and clear of a tiring GOVERNOR CHARLIE while the rest of the pacesetters start to tire. In fact, OXBOW leads by two lengths as DEPARTING assumes second but had to go wide going around GOLDENCENTS and ITSMYLUCKYDAY. GOVERNOR CHARLIE is still third, but not for long as ORB swings even wider as he commences his bid. WILL TAKE CHARGE has fallen behind ORB now, and MYLUTE is launching a trip up the rail but gets stopped by the badly fading TITLETOWN FIVE.
As they enter the final furlong, OXBOW is still there at the front, and DEPARTING is just a length back, desperately trying to get to him. ORB has just about drawn even with DEPARTING but is still a neck behind. It's clearly a three-horse race, with WILL TAKE CHARGE now three lengths behind ORB and the one-paced ITSMYLUCKDAY appearing to battle with MYLUTE for fifth.
But OXBOW has done all he can do. DEPARTING takes the lead with 100 yards to go and ORB is still a head behind. ORB digs in with the heart of a champion and gets a bit closer with every lunge. They hit the wire noses apart.
The photo shows that DEPARTING held on by the slimmest of margins. OXBOW is two lengths back in third, holding on by a head to beat WILL TAKE CHARGE. MYLUTE crosses another length back to take fifth, a length clear of ITSMYLUCKYDAY. GOVERNOR CHARLIE fades to seventh but ran respectably, while GOLDENCENTS was again eased coming down the stretch, which is at least more than TITLETOWN FIVE, who didn't even finish the race after being eased at the top of the lane.
Regarding how to bet this race, I'll definitely have win bets on DEPARTING and OXBOW. Beyond that, I *may* play ORB in an exacta over the field, but I don't know that it will pay with such a heavy favorite. As for a possible trifecta/superfecta, I feel pretty good about DEPARTING, OXBOW, ORB, WILL TAKE CHARGE, and MYLUTE, but I probably won't bet that, so there's a guaranteed winner right there.
Overall, I'll bet this race pretty lightly compared to the Derby. The Preakness generally plays pretty true to form -- you don't get a lot of longshots winning this leg of the Triple Crown, and I really think DEPARTING or ORB win this race 60+% of the time.
*****5/17 UPDATE: I ended up playing the Pimlico Special/Preakness Double with RICHARD'S KID/LAST GUNFIGHTER paired with DEPARTING/OXBOW. LAST GUNFIGHTER won, so I effectively have DEPARTING at 28-1 and OXBOW at 50-1 for tomorrow (that's ignoring the few bucks I lost on the RICHARD KID's legs, which you really can't do if we're talking real math here, but I'm going to do, anyway). Kind of hate myself for not getting more down on that bet now, but ... oh well. They load too f'ing fast at Pimlico.*****
TITLETOWN FIVE ought to be 99-1 (1% chance of winning). I'll peg GOLDENCENTS and GOVERNOR CHARLIE at 25-1 each (4% for a total of 8% -- NOTE: compared to the real odds, these in particular are way off ... I just don't see what people are in GOLDENCENTS). ITSMYLUCKYDAY at 20-1 (5%). WILL TAKE CHARGE, OXBOW and MY LUTE at 15-1 (7% for a total of 21%).
I really do think both DEPARTING and ORB should be about the same; I'll say 2-1 for ORB (33%) and 5-2 for DEPARTING (29%).
That's a little bit shy of 100%, but given the track's take, I don't mind that. If a horse is going off at odds higher than I have him, I'll include him as a bet. Pretty simple here.
*****5/17 UPDATE:
Here's how early betting as of Friday afternoon looks:
1. Orb 4-5
2. Goldencents 7-1
3. Titletown Five 23-1
4. Departing 11-1
5. Mylute 7-1
6. Oxbow 14-1
7. Will Take Charge 12-1
8. Govenor Charlie 11-1
9. Itsmyluckyday 9-1
ORB is low to me at 4-5, but the willpays on that Pimlico Special/Preakness Double indicate that he'll go off at even less than that tomorrow. That just seems nuts. He very well may be great, and there's a general fan part of me that wants him to be, but I don't want any part of betting that.
TITLETOWN FIVE at 23-1 is a joke. He'll go off much higher ... or people are a lot dumber than I thought.
How in the hell is DEPARTING the sixth choice? He's nearly the seventh choice, actually! I find that patently absurd. My whole speech about betting this race pretty lightly was based upon the premise that DEPARTING would go off around 5-1. If he sticks around near 11-1, I'll end up with more skin in the game than I expected.*****
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