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| Animal Kingdom was one of my top three picks in the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago. Will he be a pick again? |
After ANIMAL KINGDOM won the Kentucky Derby at 20-1 as one of my top three picks, I should have been trumpeting my prowess at this game.
But it felt a bit hollow. Even though I had correctly called ANIMAL KINGDOM, SOLDAT was my top pick, and he floundered late despite a perfect trip to finish outside of the top 10.
Oh well. The Preakness field was drawn yesterday and I have another chance to prove just how intelligent I am. Here we go:
Many people try to say that the Preakness is SO MUCH different than the Kentucky Derby. It's really not that different. The Derby is perceived as SO CHALLENGING for horses who have never run 1 1/4 miles in their lives. The Preakness is indeed shorter ... but only one-half furlong shorter. It's still 1 3/16 miles. It's still further than most of these horses have run before, and it's still further than many will ever run again.
The other comment overplayed comment about the Preakness compared to the the Derby is that the turns at Pimlico are tighter than the turns at Churchill Downs. Not true. They SEEM tighter because there's less banking (aka wide trips are harder on horses because their speed wants to carry them out wider), but they're actually not tighter turns.
So we WILL downgrade outside posts and horses that will have wider trips, but not much. It's just an extra thought in the back of our minds as we look at the 14 horses in the field one-by-one.
NOTE: This will not be nearly as long as the Derby preview. You can all thank me later.
1. Astrology (15-1 ML): Interesting in the sense that there's a pattern of steady improvement this year. His first start off the layoff produced a 93 speed fig and his second produced a 98. The Preakness average winning speed fig is 107, but that's not a huge jump to take for a three-year-old. Having the rail and early speed could be huge. Should love the distance. Beat TO HONOR AND SERVE, perhaps a better horse than any other in this field, in a maiden race last summer. Hasn't finished worse than second in races at more than a mile and appears classy enough. Interesting prospect at 15-1.
2. Norman Asbjornson (30-1 ML): Finished second in the Gotham to Stay Thirsty before finishing fourth in the Wood this year. Speed fig left something to be desired in each (91/92), and now he's off a pretty big layoff. Don't think the distance fits. Breeding is pretty underwhelming. Definite pass.
3. King Congie (20-1 ML): Ah, another turf horse trying the dirt. He finished third in the Blue Grass behind Derby also-rans BRILLIANT SPEED and TWINSPIRED, but we're throwing that race out, anyway. Beyond that, he's won three turf races (ended up third in one due to disqualification). Distance could be an issue. Class could be an issue. Performance is a definite issue. No thanks.
4. Flashpoint (20-1 ML): This horse could be a legendary sprinter or miler one day, but this is probably too much for him. He's actually the top-ranked horse in the Brisnet's Prime Power Ranking (a composite ranking the horses in the field from top-to-bottom), but he faded late in the Florida Derby in his only try at more than a mile. He's now off a layoff since that race on April 3, and it's hard to believe he'll be fit enough to finish this longer race out.
5. Shackleford (12-1 ML): I won't be able to pass him up, but I'm hearing that he doesn't look nearly as good as he did before the Derby. He has no works since then, which certainly isn't a surprise -- needs the rest -- but it's worrisome. On the other hand, running half a furlong less would seem to be just what this horse needed in the Derby -- he didn't give way to NEHRO or ANIMAL KINGDOM until pretty darn late. The other way to look at it, of course, is that he has never been able to hold off late runners in any graded race ... but I won't take that chance. SHACKLEFORD will be on my radar.
6. Sway Away (15-1 ML): Of the horses coming out of the Arkansas Derby in this race, this wouldn't be my pick. He did post a 103 speed fig at 7 furlongs in his debut this year, but was sixth in the Rebel and then fourth in the Ark. Derby. He did have a bit of trouble in both races, though, so this is one to keep an eye on. A quick early pace would be useful for this one. More on how SWAY AWAY fits in this race later.
7. Midnight Interlude (15-1 ML): Some really interesting thoughts on this horse's inclusion in the race. Either it's trainer Bob Baffert's ego or the horse really simply did not like Churchill Downs. Word on the street is that MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE is doing much better now that he's no longer at Churchill, but even so, I'm not sure he seems worthy here. Even if you throw the 16th-place finish at the Derby out, there are only three maiden races and a second-place finish a narrow win in a weak Santa Anita Derby to go on. Too many questions on this one.
8. Dance City (12-1): A horse with early speed who I would like more if not for SHACKLEFORD's presence. Distance should be OK, breeding is good, a reluctant third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby was good, a May 15 workout was great ... there's not a whole lot to not like. On the other hand, even if going off at 30-1 (which I bet) in the Ark. Derby was too high, this field is much stronger than that one. Does 12-1 make sense after being 30-1 in a worse field? Interesting horse but questionable value.
9. Mucho Macho Man (6-1): I was hoping that NEHRO would enter because I would feel more comfortable fading him as the second or third choice than I do MUCHO MACHO MAN. There's the sense that this horse is only going to keep improving as he's not even 3 years old yet, and an improvement off of the third-place Derby finish would probably put him in the winner's circle here. The 102 speed fig he put up there was pretty good for a horse running off a pretty lengthy layoff, so the question now is if he'll bounce off of that huge effort (regress) or continue on that trajectory. Off of his previous two layoffs, he had promising results: improving from a 97 speed fig to a 101 speed fig in the first set, and improving from a fourth-place finish to a first-place finish in the second. And yet ... I don't know. This horse seems to have a case of not-quite-good-enough. The best horse he beat to win a race was SANTIVA. That's not a terrible horse, but he finished sixth in the Derby and isn't here today. I think others are probably better, but this is a major player, regardless.
10. Dialed In (9-2): Ugh, these outside posts are giving me a headache. My initial reaction to this line was, "OH BABY, GIMME SOME DIALED IN!" And then I thought ... "WAIT A MINUTE. I THOUGHT HE WAS WAY OVERVALUED IN THE DERBY, AND NOW I WANT TO BET HIM AT 9-2?" Like MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE, there are two lines of thinking for this horse. The first is that he's not as good as was advertised before the Derby, and that he's only running because he's eligible for a $5.5 million bonus if he wins (thanks to his previous Florida Derby win). The second is that his trainer, Nick Zito, never wanted to win the Florida Derby in the first place -- $5.5 million is a lot of ching, and this race was the one he was aiming for. In fact, those that believe the second line of thinking believe that he USED THE KENTUCKY DERBY AS A PREP RACE. An interesting line of thinking, to be sure. I'm going to say no. If he was really aiming at the Preakness, why even run a grueling race like the Derby two weeks prior. There were other options. Additionally, lots of horses win both legs of the Triple Crown, so there's no reason to not take both seriously. He was no doubt a victim of the slow early going in the Derby, and he certainly did close with aplomb from well-back. If the pace is really fast here, he could win ... but I'll stay away again. Other folks are saying he just looks flat-out sore, so I'll go back to what I said in the Derby preview: "In (his) three wins, the pace after half a mile was 45.4 seconds, 46.2 and 46.2. In the loss, which came against much lesser competition, the pace after half a mile was 49.4 seconds. As previously stated, I think this race will have a pretty blistering early pace, so the fractions will almost certainly be closer to 46 than 49. However, even with fast early fractions (half mile in 46.2), DIALED IN was barely able to overtake front running longshot SHACKLEFORD in the Florida Derby win. I like SHACKLEFORD a lot and Gulfstream Park (where the Florida Derby is contested) favors frontrunners, but that makes you wonder just how good DIALED IN actually is."
11. Animal Kingdom (2-1): After popping off a 105 speed fig and winning the Kentucky Derby in impressive fashion, ANIMAL KINGDOM is a deserving favorite. He closed on leaders that really "shouldn't" have been closed on due to the slow early fractions. He has one of the most likable trainers in the game. And, man, I would be beyond happy if he wins again and we have another potential Triple Crown winner. But at 2-1, I absolutely can not include him as worthy of a bet. 2-1 implies that he will win this race once in three runnings. With at least five other pretty darn good horses and 14 animals total, that's a pretty big leap of faith. I think ANIMAL KINGDOM is good ... I'm still not sure that he's great. Everyone wants to bet on the potential of greatness in this race. I want to, but I won't.
12. Isn't He Perfect (30-1): Amazingly irrelevant. I'm not sure why he's here. He hasn't finished better than fifth in three graded races. Figures to sit mid-pack and just hang out there for the whole race. I would be absolutely floored if this horse won.
13. Concealed Identity (30-1): Probably the least well-bred horse in the field, but at least this one has a fairly strong history of four wins in eight starts. Of course, all of his races have come against fairly poor competition. This is also a hometown favorite-type horse with all of his races to date having come in Maryland. In five non-graded stakes races, he has won two and finished out of the money in three others. Did post a 96 in his last start and has gone 92-89-94-92-96, but it's hard to imagine this one winning.
14. Mr. Commons (20-1): This is the only horse above 15-1 on the morning line that I think might have some chance. That said, his breeding is fairly suspect, and I think the distance might be a bit much. On the other hand, his trainer, John Shirrefs, is really quite averse to shipping horses out of his homebase in California, so there's the idea that he really thinks Mr. Commons has a chance. But ... no. He's on the outside, which is doubly bad, and I'd be surprised if he wasn't pressing the pace from be wide throughout. I'm tossing this one, as well.
Lots of carnage in my picks for this race. I'm crossing out a good bit of the field straight away.
The horses I'm considering at this point are:
ASTROLOGY
SHACKLEFORD
SWAY AWAY
DANCE CITY
MUCHO MACHO MAN
DIALED IN
I'll add the caveat that if ANIMAL KINGDOM were to be sent off at above 3-1, I'd take a piece of that.
Anyway, here's how I expect the race to play out:
FIRST TIER: DANCE CITY, FLASHPOINT, SHACKLEFORD
SECOND TIER: ASTROLOGY, MR. COMMONS
THIRD TIER: MUCHO MACHO MAN, NORMAN ABJORNSON, CONCEALED IDENTITY, MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE, ISN'T HE PERFECT
FOURTH TIER: ANIMAL KINGDOM, KING CONGIE, SWAY AWAY, DIALED IN
The expected pace duel never arose in the Derby, and I frankly think it's less likely to happen in this race.
SHACKLEFORD has been a stone-cold frontrunner in his last two races and I don't expect that to change. DANCE CITY and FLASHPOINT will provide some semblance of pressure, but I don't think FLASHPOINT, in particular, wants to go out too hard -- if he's going to have any hope at the end, it'll have to be a slow pace. I'll call for a first half-mile of :47.4 -- not as slow as the Derby's :48.6, but still pretty leisurely. The one wild card in all of this is how ASTROLOGY breaks from the rail -- he's going to want to break sharply, but not so sharply that he heads out to the lead. If that happens, I would expect SHACKLEFORD to press him hard and that could lead into a bit of a meltdown situation up top. I don't think it's likely, but you never know.
One other note on the tiers in general: After the poor showing from DIALED IN in the Derby, I would expect him to be closer up today and really try to stay right with ANIMAL KINGDOM.
Anyway, as the field hits the top of the stretch, I see FLASHPOINT falling away as SHACKLEFORD and DANCE CITY press on. ASTROLOGY and MUCHO MACHO MAN loom large in behind them, and SWAY AWAY is coming through near the fence while ANIMAL KINGDOM and DIALED IN are moving almost as one around the outside of the pack.
SWAY AWAY encounters some trouble, though, and he's essentially done. ANIMAL KINGDOM and DIALED IN are closing nicely, but they're still well-back of SHACKLEFORD, who puts away DANCE CITY with a furlong to go.
SHACKLEFORD is far from in the clear, though, as he's tackled by ASTROLOGY and MUCHO MACHO MAN. These three battle heads apart as DIALED IN and ANIMAL KINGDOM continue to close.
With 100 yards to go, SHACKLEFORD gives way. ASTROLOGY and MUCHO MACHO MAN are noses apart as the line approaches. Meanwhile, the crowd roars as ANIMAL KINGDOM is getting the best of DIALED IN as these two continue to close from just a few lengths back.
ASTROLOGY is edging clear of MUCHO MACHO MAN, but just barely. Meanwhile, it's ANIMAL KINGDOM a neck ahead of DIALED IN as these four approach the wire.
It's too close to call at the line. ASTROLOGY and ANIMAL KINGDOM finish noses apart, while MUCHO MACHO MAN and DIALED IN weren't much more than a neck back of those two.
In the end, it's ASTROLOGY edging ANIMAL KINGDOM, with MUCHO MACHO MAN third and DIALED IN fourth.
In closing:
HORSES CURRENTLY WORTHY OF WIN BETS:
ASTROLOGY 15-1 ML
POTENTIALLY WORTHY:
SHACKLEFORD 15-1 ML
DANCE CITY 12-1 ML (NEED 20-1)
DIALED IN (NEED 6-1)
ANIMAL KINGDOM (NEED 4-1)
MUCHO MACHO MAN (NEED 10-1)
SWAY AWAY (NEED 15-1)
HORSES I WON'T BET:
NORMAN ABJORNSON
KING CONGIE
FLASHPOINT
MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE
ISN'T HE PERFECT
CONCEALED IDENTITY
MR. COMMONS
And that's that. Frankly, I wouldn't be at all surprised if any of the top 7 horses won this race. Somehow, even with five less horses, this race seems tougher to handicap than the Derby.
I have a definite feeling that ANIMAL KINDOM or DIALED IN will be hard-pressed to catch whoever emerges out of the top five or six horses early. Routes at Pimlico are won in the middle part of the race. It's going to be tough for late horses, no doubt.
I'm still praying for a Triple Crown, and I think ANIMAL KINGDOM is extremely well-suited to winning the Belmont Stakes should he get this one. He's just going to be up against a slow pace and a speed-favoring racetrack that will make continuing his quest past Saturday will take something really special.
UPDATE 5/21/11: Everyone and their mother seems to believe that this is actually going to be a relatively fast pace. In fact, I was reconsidering that I might be downright wrong with my take until I saw Jerry Bailey give the same take that I had -- mid-47 seconds. He sees roughly the same race shape as I do, with the exception being that FLASHPOINT will go straight to the front and SHACKLEFORD will be the horse off the pace.
I don't know that I agree there -- despite claims to the contrary, SHACKLEFORD seems to be a need-the-lead type -- and if FLASHPOINT does go straight to the front, then I think we do have the speed meltdown that everyone is calling for.
As another point: we're only four races in, but every race (including a turf race, so we can disregard that one) has been won from off the pace. DIALED IN and ANIMAL KINGDOM are looking better and better.
If I'm taking a stand against one horse today, it's MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE. Bob Baffert is still saying he expects much better, but I see little to no chance of this horse competing. If he does, I'll be hurting by 6 p.m.
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