The Green Bay Packers Pain Pyramid

To understand the psyche of a Green Bay Packers fan, you have to understand that there is a distinct difference between "suffering" and "misery."

Most NFL fanbases suffer from irrelevance. They endure 4-13 seasons, quarterback carousels, and meaningless December football. That is numbing, but it is not painful.

Pain requires hope. And for the last 30 years, no franchise has manufactured more hope—and subsequently destroyed it in more creative ways—than the Green Bay Packers.

Consider the Denver Broncos as a control group. Since 1996, the Broncos have endured long stretches of mediocrity. They’ve started quarterbacks like Paxton Lynch, Trevor Siemian, and Drew Lock. They have been unwatchable for years at a time. And yet, in that same span, they have won three Super Bowls to Green Bay's two. When the Broncos were great, they usually finished the job. When they were bad, they were just bad. You can sleep when your team is bad.

The Packers, conversely, have been blessed with 30 years of uninterrupted Hall of Fame quarterback play—from Favre to Rodgers to Love. This creates a "championship-or-bust" expectation every single September. Being constantly in contention means you are constantly available to be hurt. You don't get the anesthesia of a 5-12 season; you get the adrenaline of a 13-3 season, only to have it end via a fumble that wasn't a fumble, a 4th-and-26, a botched onside kick, or a blocked punt.

The Packers don't just lose; they invent new, statistically improbable ways to lose that leave scars on the local culture. They are the Icarus of the NFL—flying higher than everyone else for four months, only to melt in the most spectacular fashion possible right when it matters most.

Here is the definitive hierarchy of that pain.

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Tier 4: Bad, But Liveable

These sting, but you can rationalize them. The better team might have won, or at least you got a cool moment out of it.

14. The Jordan Love "Welcome to the Club" (2023 NFC Divisional)

• Final Score: 49ers 24, Packers 21
• The Pain: You outplayed the #1 seed for 55 minutes. Anders Carlson missed a 41-yard field goal that would have put you up 6, and Love threw a Favre-esque pick across his body on 1st-and-10 with 52 seconds left to end it.
• Why it's liveable: Nobody expected you to be there. It was a "house money" season with the youngest roster in the league.

13. The Dynasty That Wasn't (Super Bowl XXXII)

• Final Score: Broncos 31, Packers 24
• The Pain: You were 11-point favorites to cement a dynasty. You let a 37-year-old John Elway scramble for 8 yards on 3rd-and-6, helicoptering through the air after a hit from LeRoy Butler to keep the go-ahead drive alive.
• Why it's liveable: You won the Super Bowl the year before. The ring from 1996 acts as a powerful anesthetic for this loss.

12. Ice Bowl II (2013 NFC Wild Card)

• Final Score: 49ers 23, Packers 20
• The Pain: In sub-zero temperatures at Lambeau, you had the game in your hands. With 4:19 left and the game tied 20-20, Kaepernick threw a pass right into the hands of Micah Hyde near the sideline. It would have been a game-sealing interception. Hyde dropped it.
• Why it's liveable: The team was 8-7-1 and Rodgers was playing on a half-healed collarbone. You were barely supposed to be in the playoffs, but the "what if" of that dropped interception still nags.

11. The Hail Mary Tease (2015 NFC Divisional)

• Final Score: Cardinals 26, Packers 20 (OT)
• The Pain: Aaron Rodgers makes arguably the two greatest throws in NFL history on the same drive to force OT. First, a 60-yard bomb on 4th-and-20, followed immediately by a 41-yard fading Hail Mary to Jeff Janis as the clock hit 0:00. It felt like destiny.
• Why it's liveable: You never touched the ball in overtime. Larry Fitzgerald just went superhuman, taking the first play from scrimmage 75 yards down the sideline. It felt less like a "choke" and more like you got beat by a legend.

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Tier 3: The "Wait, What Just Happened?" Games

These are the losses that involve a single play or moment that defies statistical probability.

10. The Jerry Rice Fumble (1998 NFC Wild Card)

• Final Score: 49ers 30, Packers 27
• The Pain: Jerry Rice fumbled on the 49ers' final drive. It was clear. He was standing up, the ball came out, and the Packers recovered. But there was no instant replay. The refs said "down by contact," and Terrell Owens caught the 25-yard game-winning touchdown moments later with 0:03 remaining.
• The Trauma: You weren't beaten; you were robbed by the lack of technology.

9. The Facemask Shootout (2009 NFC Wild Card)

• Final Score: Cardinals 51, Packers 45 (OT)
• The Pain: In Rodgers' first playoff start, he was perfect (423 yards, 4 TDs), rallying the team from a 31-10 deficit to tie the game.
• The Moment: On the first possession of OT, Rodgers was strip-sacked by Michael Adams. Karlos Dansby returned it 17 yards for the winning TD. Replays clearly showed Adams twisting Rodgers' facemask, which caused the fumble. It should have been a 15-yard penalty and a fresh set of downs. Instead, the game was over.

8. 4th and 26 (2003 NFC Divisional)

• Final Score: Eagles 20, Packers 17 (OT)
• The Pain: With 1:12 left and the Eagles on their own 26, the Packers played a coverage so soft it was practically a prevent defense. Freddie Mitchell—a man who had only 35 catches all season—caught a pass right down the middle for 28 yards to keep the drive alive.
• The Trauma: "4th and 26" is a phrase that can silence a room in Wisconsin instantly.

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Tier 2: The Myth-Busters

These losses didn't just end a season; they destroyed a core belief about the franchise.

7. The End of the Mystique (2002 NFC Wild Card)

• Final Score: Falcons 27, Packers 7
• The Pain: The Packers had never lost a home playoff game. 13-0 all-time. It was a rule of physics: You cannot beat Green Bay at Lambeau in January. Michael Vick didn't care about physics, causing a landslide early and handing the Packers their first-ever home playoff loss.
• The Trauma: It was the first time you realized, "Oh no, Lambeau Field doesn't actually tackle people."

6. The Frozen Tundra Funeral (2007 NFC Championship)

• Final Score: Giants 23, Packers 20 (OT)
• The Pain: It was -23 degrees with wind chill. Favre was having a renaissance. The Giants missed two field goals in regulation (Lawrence Tynes from 36 and 43 yards) to keep you alive. And then... on the second play of overtime, Favre throws a lazy, floating interception to Corey Webster.
• The Trauma: It was the last pass Brett Favre ever threw as a Packer. The hero lived long enough to become the villain.

5. The 15-1 Waste (2011 NFC Divisional)

• Final Score: Giants 37, Packers 20
• The Pain: This was Rodgers at his absolute peak (122.5 passer rating, 45 TDs, 6 INTs). The team went 15-1. They looked unstoppable. But the backbreaker came right before halftime: Hakeem Nicks caught a 37-yard Hail Mary as time expired to put the Giants up 20-10.
• The Trauma: It proved that having the best QB in the world doesn't guarantee you anything.

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Tier 1: Oh My God, I May Never Sleep Again

The darkest timeline. These are the losses that require therapy.

4. The Scotty Miller Game (2020 NFC Championship)

• Final Score: Buccaneers 31, Packers 26
• The Pain: This was the best team of the Rodgers era. You were at home. You picked off Tom Brady three times in the second half.
• The Nightmare:
• The Lapse: With 0:08 left in the first half and no timeouts, the Packers played man coverage with no safety help. Scotty Miller burned Kevin King for a 39-yard TD as time expired.
• The Decision: Trailing by 8 with 2:05 left, Matt LaFleur kicked a field goal on 4th-and-Goal from the 8, voluntarily giving the ball back to Tom Brady to ice the game.

3. The Special Teams Disaster (2021 NFC Divisional)

• Final Score: 49ers 13, Packers 10
• The Pain: Your defense played a perfect game. They did not allow an offensive touchdown and sacked Garoppolo 4 times. You were the #1 seed at home in the snow.
• The Nightmare: You had a field goal blocked before half. Then, with 4:41 left and leading 10-3, you had a punt blocked by Jordan Willis and returned for a touchdown. To cap it off, you had only 10 men on the field for the 49ers' winning field goal. It is the most incompetent loss in NFL history.

2. The Soldier Field Collapse (2025 NFC Wild Card)

• Final Score: Bears 31, Packers 27
• The Pain: You held an 18-point lead (21-3) at halftime and still led 27-16 midway through the 4th. You were facing the Bears, a team you have owned for three decades.
• The Nightmare:
• The Kicks: Brandon McManus missed an extra point (wide left) and then a critical 44-yard field goal (wide right) that would have iced it.
• The Collapse: You gave up 25 points in the 4th quarter. Caleb Williams hit DJ Moore for a 25-yard go-ahead TD with 1:43 remaining.
• The Symbolism: Losing a playoff game to your "little brother" via a massive comeback signifies a terrifying shift in the rivalry.

1. The Meltdown in Seattle (2014 NFC Championship)

• Final Score: Seahawks 28, Packers 22 (OT)
• The Pain: This is the Mona Lisa of choking.
• The Nightmare:
• Morgan Burnett slides on an INT with 5:04 left and infinite room to run.
• Three straight runs into the line, resulting in a punt.
• The Bostick botched onside kick with 2:09 remaining (it hit him squarely in the facemask).
• The Ha Ha Clinton-Dix 2-point conversion failure (Russell Wilson's desperation heave floated in the air for an eternity before landing in Luke Willson's hands).
• Why it’s #1: You were going to the Super Bowl. The reservations were made. The game was statistically over (99.9% win probability with 3 minutes left). You watched it dissolve in slow motion. It is the standard by which all other NFL pain is measured.

 

2025 Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) (Race 8)

 

2025 Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) (Race 8)

This is the $5,000,000 Longines Breeders' Cup Turf (G1), featuring a large international field set to go 1 1/2 miles on the turf. The model has identified a heavy favorite as a poor value bet and finds positive edges on seven other horses, including one "insanity insurance" play.

The Most Likely Winners (But Bad Bets)

• #8 Minnie Hauk (Projected Odds: 1.9/1)

  The model's most likely winner with a 30% Win Probability. She is a European superstar, a 3-year-old filly who won the G1 Epsom Oaks, G1 Irish Oaks, and G1 Yorkshire Oaks in succession. She was just beaten by a head in the G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. Despite her credentials, the model finds a -40.71% negative edge, making her a terrible value at her short price.

• #1 Rebel's Romance (Projected Odds: 4/1)

  The model's second-most-likely winner (25% Win Prob) and a globetrotting veteran. He is attempting to become the first horse to win the Breeders' Cup Turf three times. He won the G1 Grosser Preis von Berlin this year and the G1 Turf Classic last out. His trainer reports he is in "great form" and "pitch perfect". The model finds a slight +3.43% positive edge, making him a key play.

The Best Value Bets

With the favorite being a poor value, the win budget is spread across the seven positive-edge horses.

• Top Value: #1 Rebel's Romance (Projected Odds: 4/1)

  He is the only horse to be both a top-two win probability and a positive edge. This makes him the cornerstone of the betting plan.

• #7 Silawi (Projected Odds: 31.8/1)

  This horse shows the model's second-best edge at +43.22%. He is a G1 winner, having just won the G1 Canadian International at Woodbine in his last start.

• #10 El Cordobes (Projected Odds: 31.8/1)

  A strong value play with a +18.80% positive edge. He is a G1 winner, having captured the Sword Dancer Stakes at Saratoga this summer, earning a "Win and You're In" berth. He finished 3rd, just behind #1 Rebel's Romance, in the Turf Classic.

• #14 Ethical Diamond (Projected Odds: 24.3/1)

  A solid value with a +7.29% positive edge. This horse is trained by the legendary Willie Mullins. He comes in off back-to-back wins in two of Europe's biggest handicaps: the Duke of Edinburgh at Royal Ascot and the Ebor Handicap at York.

• Other Positive Edge Horses: The model also finds smaller edges on #13 Hill Road (+6.86%), #12 Tawny Port (+1.08%), and #11 Rashabar (+0.67%).

Recommended Betting Plan (Race 8)

"Insanity Insurance" Bet:

The model shows an extreme +64.41% edge on #3 Amiloc. This indicates the model is likely missing a key piece of data; for instance, he is facing G1 company after a 2nd place finish in the G1 Irish St Leger. Per our rules, this horse receives a minimum bet and is excluded from all other wagers.

• $2.00 Win on #3 Amiloc

Total Win Spend: $74.00

Horse	Bet Amount
#1 Rebel's Romance	$42.00 Win
#10 El Cordobes	$12.00 Win
#14 Ethical Diamond	$10.00 Win
#7 Silawi	$4.00 Win
#11 Rashabar	$2.00 Win
#12 Tawny Port	$2.00 Win
#13 Hill Road	$2.00 Win

Total Exacta Spend: $23.00

(Based on proportional scaling of the model's exacta BET SIZER values, rounded to the nearest dollar. #3 Amiloc is excluded.)

Amount	Type	Selections	Total Cost
$13.00	Exacta	1 / 2	$13.00
$3.00	Exacta	1 / 8	$3.00
$3.00	Exacta	1 / 14	$3.00
$1.00	Exacta	14 / 2	$1.00
$1.00	Exacta	10 / 2	$1.00
$1.00	Exacta	14 / 4	$1.00
$1.00	Exacta	2 / 4	$1.00

MINNESOTA VS. PENN STATE PREVIEW

With three experienced running backs and the bulk of the offensive line returning for Minnesota's football team this season, the expectation was that the Gophers would go only as far as young quarterback Tanner Morgan could take them.

As the upstart 8-0 squad prepares for its Game of the Century this Saturday at home against 8-0 Penn State, it remains up to Morgan -- only for a different reason than expected.

Morgan and his three future NFL wideouts (Tyler Johnson, Rashod Bateman and Chris Autman-Bell) have been the clear bright spot for a team that has struggled running the ball from time to time -- a struggle that's likely to rear its head against a Penn State run defense that has allowed just 3.19 yards per rush against teams that typically average 4.65 yards per rush. With Minnesota's rushing attack looking barely above average at 5.02 yards per rush against teams that typically allow 4.77 yards per rush, it's hard to see the Gophers clearing 4 yards per rush (The Chalice projects 3.72 yards per rush).

With tough sledding likely in the ground game, it's the passing game that Minnesota will need to be the difference maker. It's no secret that the Gophers haven't played a tough schedule to date, and Gophers opponents have typically given up 7.28 yards per pass play. But the Gophers have solidly exceeded that mark, averaging 8.95 yards per pass play. Meanwhile, although Penn State has played a much tougher schedule overall, they've actually faced a very weak schedule in regard to the passing game: their opponents have averaged just 5.65 yards per pass play. This is nearly a yard below the NCAA average as a whole, and it's no surprise when you think of the offensive statistics even generally "good" Penn State opponents like Iowa, Michigan State and Michigan have put up this year (not to mention Maryland, Purdue, Pittsburgh, Buffalo and Idaho).

While Penn State has allowed just 4.84 yards per pass to those teams (and as such rank fifth in passer rating allowed; coincidentally, Minnesota is fourth), it's clear that Minnesota's passing offense is unlike anything the Nittany Lions have faced in the past.

It's for that reason that the Gophers fans have reason to be hopeful against one of the top teams in the country.

While the stats overall are surely in favor of the Nittany Lions to win -- The Chalice projects 4.56 yards per rush and 7.7 yards per pass for Penn State to just 3.72 yards per rush and 7.34 yards per pass for Minnesota (full detail: Penn State averages 4.46 yards per rush against teams that allow 4.09 while Minnesota D allows 4.27 to teams that average 5.03; 7.4 yards per pass vs. teams that allow 5.87 yards per pass while Minnesota D allows 4.59 yards per pass vs. teams that average an almost impossibly poor 4.9 yards per pass) -- this is the biggest game Minnesota football has played in most people's lifetimes.

And it's at home. At 11 a.m. on what promises to be a crisp fall Saturday in Minneapolis. While Minnesota football fans have decades of PTSD from letdowns in big games, coach PJ Fleck's schtick-y yet inspiring ROW THE BOAT mantra has people believing that this year might finally be the one.

Prediction: ROW THE BOAT

Prediction: Minnesota 28, Penn State 27

2016 BELMONT STAKES PREVIEW

As difficult as the Kentucky Derby is to predict, the Belmont Stakes might be even harder in theory -- none of these horses will ever run this far again in their careers, and they're running at least two full furlongs further than they ever have before.

On the other hand, it's easier. The field is smaller, pedigrees matter more, and running style matters more -- very rarely is this race won by a true deep closer.

A Triple Crown was on the line the past two years, of course, and that depressed the fields a bit in those years. TONALIST was a very logical winner in 2014 based on his pedigree, and of course AMERICAN PHAROAH was brilliant in turning back FROSTED at the top of the stretch last year.

But it's the two years prior that I want to look to in order to decode this year's edition. 2013 saw Derby also-ran PALACE MALICE turn the tables on ORB, and 2012 saw Derby also-ran UNION RAGS wear down PAYNTER late.

That is admittedly a short sample, but I've seen other statistics that bear out a similar story -- horses that run in the Derby but skip the Preakness before returning for the Belmont have somewhat of a leg up on the competition. The Derby puts a good foundation into horses given that it's 10 furlongs, but the horses also get five weeks off -- that's a relatively "normal" period of time for horses these days, rather than running three times in five weeks like EXAGGERATOR and LANI will be doing, or running only three weeks apart like STRADIVARI and CHERRY WINE will be doing. That's not to say that none of those horses can win, but it puts them at a disadvantage in my mind.

You also have GETTYSBURG, who ran a non-impact third in his last race only a few weeks ago on May 26. I think he's likely entered primarily as a rabbit for CREATOR, so it's hard to take his chances seriously. More on that later. And then you have SEEKING THE SOUL and FOREVER D'ORO, two true longshots who just broke their maidens on May 29.

Horses coming out of the Peter Pan have also done well (see TONALIST), and it's easy to see why there, too -- it's a nine furlong race run over the same Belmont track, and it's four weeks before the final jewel of the Triple Crown. GOVERNOR MALIBU falls into this category. He runs like he'll run forever, and Clement of course trained TONALIST in 2014. He's also one of the more tactical horses in the race; he does his best running late, but he doesn't drop a mile out the back of the pack like many others. He must be considered.

Beyond that, we're left with the Derby horses who didn't run in the Preakness: DESTIN, BRODY'S CAUSE, SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS, CREATOR and TROJAN NATION.

I've had DESTIN in my gut as my pick really since the time I found out he was running here -- his style fits perfectly for this race, the Derby-Belmont layoff is in his favor, and he ran a better-than-it-seems sixth in the Derby despite coming into the race on a two-month layoff and being knocked around at the start. My only reservation is with the damside stamina; 12 furlongs is almost double the average winning distance for the offspring of SIBERIAN SUMMER.

BRODY'S CAUSE has never run a speed figure fast enough to win based on that alone, but throw the speed figures out in this race. The pedigree is strong for this distance, and what I like about him that separates him from some of the other S0 horses in this race (and there are six of them total, along with an S2 -- for the uninitiated, this means late speed horses), is that he's more of an intermediate closer as opposed to a truly deep closer like SUDDENBREAKINGNWES for instance. He's actually quite similar to EXAGGERATOR in that regard in my mind; he was only 11 lengths back at the first call of the Derby vs. 21 for a horse like CREATOR and 27 for SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS. He doesn't have the same eye-catching move, but he's very athletic and seems to just grind. That's perfect for Belmont, and he's obviously more well-rested than EXAGGERATOR and will be a much bigger price.

SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS was flying late in the Derby, so he should easily win with another 1/4 mile to run down the leaders, right? Well, no, you should know by now that it doesn't really work that way. The pedigree is kind of neutral. He'll get 12 furlongs, but I don't think he's truly "made for it." That late punch will be neutralized by the extra distance in my mind. Getting Mike Smith aboard may be a plus -- Mike knows he can't be so far back. He did pair up speed figures between the Kentucky and Arkansas Derby, so that would indicate to me that he'll move forward again. At the end of the day, it wouldn't surprise me if he won, but I'll bet against that late closer at Belmont every time.

CREATOR has a rabbit in GETTYSBURG (seriously, the owners gave the horse a new trainer -- CREATOR's trainer -- just so Pletcher didn't have to enter him against STRADIVARI and DESTIN), which may help him ... and it is of course going to also help those aforementioned five other late speed horses. So the late speed style is a detriment in my mind. On the other hand, he was commencing a withering late run in the Derby before getting knocked sideways (see this tweet: https://twitter.com/noneedtocallit/status/729866529316069376/photo/1), and I think he was moving just as well as EXAGGERATOR, only his jockey decided to go wide rather than staying inside. He also gets a new jockey -- Irad Ortiz, a perennial leading jockey in New York -- so that should move him up as well, and the pedigree is a plus with a Peruvian mare out of PRIVATELY HELD and TAPIT as the sire. TAPIT is sort of a neutral/minus influence for 12 furlongs in my mind, but the damside makes it overall good. So ... I don't know. Here again, I think you sort of have to toss based on principle, because otherwise you end up including every horse.

TROJAN NATION is still a maiden and while his pedigree for this is pretty strong, he's, you know, still a maiden for a reason. He didn't get away from the gate cleanly in the Derby, but he also never showed any inkling of running and was never better than 16th. No thank you.

With all of that said, it's pretty clear that I favor BRODY'S CAUSE, GOVERNOR MALIBU and DESTIN out of that group, and probably in that order. Now let's circle back to the horses that don't necessarily fit my "magic" profile and touch on them.

GETTYSBURG truly was entered as a rabbit. There's no other way around it. His presence does hurt the Pletcher horses, who otherwise figured to sit on the lead with no real pressure. My guess is that Winstar told Todd they wanted to enter him, Todd said absolutely not, and they took him away accordingly. Todd and Winstar have a pretty close relationship (they won the Derby together with SUPER SAVER), so there are a few ways to read this ... and none of them are good for GETTYSBURG. One way to read it is that Todd simply feels GETTYSBURG is clearly inferior to his other two entrants. Why run a horse against competition you don't think you can beat? Another way to read it is that Winstar really, really thinks highly of CREATOR, and they are desperate to give him every chance to win this race and become a highly sought-after stallion prospect as a son of TAPIT with some serious distance on his damside. Granted, those two theories could both be true .. and GETTYSBURG is not flattered by either interpretation. What's interesting about him, however, is that the pedigree is pretty solid, and he ran a darn good fifth in the Arkansas Derby, carving out fractions of :46 1/5 and 1:10 3/5 and still holding on reasonably well to finish only five lengths back. Still, I think even the most generous read here is that he's a rabbit they think might still be able to hit the board.

CHERRY WINE got a pretty great pace setup in the Preakness and powered home strongly, but he almost surely benefited from the mud based on his pedigree (his one other off-track race was his maiden-breaking nine-length tour de force last fall). Romans has said BRODY'S CAUSE is very likely the better horse (he trains both), but that CHERRY WINE is doing well and deserves a shot. Trainers say a lot of junk, but I believe Romans for the most part, and I do think BRODY'S CAUSE is better in this spot. CHERRY WINE's pedigree is rather "meh" -- I still think he belongs on turf long-term -- and while he does have a very similar running style to BRODY'S CAUSE in that he's generally not been a "from the clouds" closer, I think he is a bit later with his move, and he's also just not as talented in my view. Plus he only has the three week break, so he's a toss.

SEEKING THE SOUL and FOREVER D'ORO are coming off just two-week breaks, have both raced only three times, and have both won only once, and are both trained by Dallas Stewart and owned by Charles Fipke. SEEKING THE SOUL ran a fast mile in 1:34 flat last out, but that was set up by :22 2/5, :44 4/5 and 1:09 fractions; he came home in :25, which is surely not bad, but I think most of these would do better. The pedigree is OK, but not great for 1.5 miles, and he might belong on the turf long-term, too. FOREVER D'ORO hasn't run the speed figure that SEEKING THE SOUL has, but I like his chances a bit more. The pedigree is better, and he's lightly raced enough that we just don't really know yet. But this will be his third race since May 7 -- so basically he's run a full Triple Crown schedule. No thanks.

LANI is probably the best bred for this distance in the field and has been worked to run ten miles at a time, basically, so it always seemed like this would be his best chance for glory in America. He has apparently looked great at Belmont, too. The three races in five weeks bothers me, of course, and there's also the nagging feeling that he's just been passing tired horses in the prior two races. But maybe that's just it -- maybe they'll all be tired here except for him? He seems to be getting some people excited, but all the work and all the racing has to take a toll at some point. I'll pass at a price I deem likely too short.

STRADIVARI could very well win the Belmont. He ran relatively well and evenly in the Preakness, never getting closer than two lengths to the lead and never falling more than five behind. He seems to me to be the most promising horse in the field just based on what we've seen he's capable of. On the other hand, 12 furlongs is really stretching it with this pedigree, and the presence of GETTYSBURG does truly make it impossible to see him on an easy, uncontested lead. Unless he's really just that good, I don't think this is the optimal spot for him. I would have rested him and targeted the Haskell ... which, to play contrarian with myself briefly, Todd is generally a genius with placing his horses, so maybe he knows what he's doing after all here. Even so, I'll pass.

And so we come to EXAGGERATOR. I have repeatedly been on record saying I think he's just as good on a dry track as a wet track, so throw tha part out. He's extremely consistent, and even though he has been falling well back in many of his races, the outside post here and the track profile make me think he might be placed somewhat closer. But I still think he'll move early, and you have to wonder if the size of these turns will find him on the lead mid-turn with still three furlongs left to run. And then there was the report that he floated the turn and was on is wrong lead for a while; Kent tried to explain this away as his fault, but a horse as seasoned as this shouldn't do that unless he's not comfortable on the track and/or maybe something is bothering him? He hasn't had a break yet this year and despite what Keith will say, that takes a toll eventually. Finally, the pedigree is not STRADIVARI-level questionable, but the damside is nothing to hang your hat on. Too many questions with this one at a short price.

So, BRODY'S CAUSE, GOVERNOR MALIBU and DESTIN are the plays. Bet them to win, and box them in various ways. I would play against EXAGGERATOR entirely -- despite his consistency to date, he's due to throw in a clunker, and Kent is well-known (for better and for worse) for not really persisting with a horse when he sees the hope of winning is lost. CREATOR and SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS would be the other two that I would use if you want to spread more.

All of that said, this is a pretty darn good betting race -- there are a lot of options and I wouldn't be particularly surprised if 10 different horses won. GOOD LUCK.

The Eighth Annual Wothism Kentucky Derby Preview

Has a new home, of sorts:

http://noneedtocallit.weebly.com/the-2016-kentucky-derby-g1.html

THE BEST POOL EVER: 2016 EDITION

THE BEST MARCH MADNESS POOL EVER is back.

Here's a quick overview of the rules:

1. Each person gets a budget of $100 each week of the tournament (before the second/third rounds, before the Sweet 16/Elite 8, and before the Final 4/Championship).

2. Each person will select as many teams as they desire as long as said teams can fit in their budget.

3. Teams will earn points as follows:

Second round win = 1 point
Third round win = 3 points
Sweet 16 win = 2 points
Elite 8 win= 6 points
Final 4 win = 3 points
Championship win = 9 points

If you're wondering why the scoring works this way, it's because A) It's harder to pick the second game of the weekend than it is the first, B) It's harder to pick games later in the tournament, C) You need more points when there are less games to more properly even the scoring out (even though it's not necessarily completely even, it's a bit more distributed this way).

4. The most points at the end of the tournament wins. The winner will take 60% of the pot, second will take 30%, and third will take 10%.

5. The entry fee will be $30.

So, without further ado, here is the price list for week 1 (you'll note that I just guessed at play-in game winners; you only get the team I guessed below ... so you probably want to avoid those teams unless you feel super confident in Vandy, for instance):

KANSAS	41
VIRGINIA	40
NORTH CAROLINA	39
MICHIGAN ST.	39
OKLAHOMA	37
VILLANOVA	32
OREGON	32
WEST VIRGINIA	32
TEXAS A&M	30
MIAMI FL	26
DUKE	26
PURDUE	26
KENTUCKY	25
XAVIER	25
UTAH	25
MARYLAND	24
INDIANA	21
IOWA ST.	20
CALIFORNIA	19
BAYLOR	17
IOWA	16
TEXAS	16
PITTSBURGH	15
CINCINNATI	14
VANDERBILT	13
GONZAGA	13
ARIZONA	11
SETON HALL	10
WISCONSIN	9
MICHIGAN	8
VCU	7
USC	7
NOTRE DAME	7
SYRACUSE	7
CONNECTICUT	6
OREGON ST.	6
BUTLER	6
YALE	5
SAINT JOSEPH'S	4
NORTHERN IOWA	4
PROVIDENCE	4
TEXAS TECH	4
DAYTON	4
COLORADO	3
SOUTH DAKOTA ST.	3
HAWAII	3
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN	3
ARKANSAS LITTLE ROCK	3
UNC WILMINGTON	2
CHATTANOOGA	2
STONY BROOK	2
FRESNO ST.	2
BUFFALO	1
TEMPLE	1
UNC ASHEVILLE	1
WISCONSIN GREEN BAY	1
CAL ST. BAKERSFIELD	1
WEBER ST.	1
IONA	1
AUSTIN PEAY	1
HOLY CROSS	1
FLORIDA GULF COAST	1
HAMPTON	1
MIDDLE TENNESSEE	1

Again, you can construct a squad of however many teams you would like AS LONG AS YOU STAY AT OR UNDER $100. Do you want to take a few apparent near sure-things (like Kansas and Virginia?) and a few longer shots, or do you take a ton of longshots? Or try for some happy medium?

Whatever you do, remember that even if your teams flame out this week, you'll be supplied with new team prices next week and should still have a chance to win regardless of what happened (last year, everyone was still in contention after the first weekend and only one of 11 people was eliminated entirely heading into the Final Four).

You can have as many entries as you want. Feel free to share with friends.

If you want to be in, send me an email at bobwothe@gmail.com titled 2016 NCAA POOL WEEK 1 TEAMS with your teams and $30 via PayPal (this is preferred -- bobwothe@gmail.com) or check (32 Country Court, Fond du Lac, WI  54935) by Wednesday, 3/16, at 10 p.m. CST. If you haven't gotten me the money or made other arrangements by then, your entry will not count, PERIOD.

Last thing: In order to remove any issues with me knowing other people's picks before giving my own, I will send my picks to a new email account each week before 11:59 p.m. CST Monday of that week. You will then need to get your picks to me by 11:59 p.m. CST Tuesday of that week. Then, Wednesday night/Thursday morning of each week, I will send out an email with a spreadsheet containing everyone's picks AS WELL AS the login credentials to the email account that I create. This will provide a timestamped version of my picks so that you can rest assured that I am not cheating.

As for this first week, I have already sent my entry on to this new email address, so you may send in your entries whenever you wish.

Let me know if you have any questions. Again, feel free to share this with others! 

2015 WOTHISM BREEDERS' CUP PREVIEW

I'm so giddy.

For a guy who's undergoing willful injury to his pelvic region (read: I'm getting a vasectomy) on Thursday, I couldn't be much more excited about this week. One hundred and forty hours to go to the Breeders' Cup Classic and an absolutely epic showdown between the likes of AMERICAN PHAROAH and BEHOLDER (and plenty of others that I'll probably actually bet rather than those two, but we'll get to that later).

The post position draw is tomorrow, Oct. 26, so I won't get too in-depth with my previews just yet. But given my level of excitement, I need to blow off some steam here, so what follows is a reverse 13-1 ranking of the races I'm most excited for:

#13 JUVENILE TURF: Listen, I watch a lot of horse racing. And the list of names on the pre-entries list is almost wholly unfamiliar to me. Some of the Euros making the trip over seem to be pretty good at first glance, but if this wasn't a Breeders' Cup race, I would think about not betting it at all.

#12 JUVENILE FILLIES TURF: This race at least has some recognizable "bigger" names in line to run against the strong Euro contingent. I'm still not too excited about betting a number of juveniles going long on the turf for the first or second time, but it's one of the better juvenile fillies turf renditions I can remember.

#11 TURF SPRINT: Don't get me wrong, I like some of the horses here, but this doesn't do much more for me than any other random G3 turf sprint across the nation on any other random Saturday. This was one of the most exciting races last year with BOBBY'S KITTEN storming from well back late to claim the title, but that was also on the downhill turf course at Santa Anita vs. a rather pedestrian 5.5 furlongs at Keeneland.

#10 F&M TURF: It's nice to see STEPHANIE'S KITTEN keep rolling along and all, and seeing her against the seemingly top-notch Euros that are coming will be nice, but the rest of the American contingent is like the rest of this division ... uninspiring.

#9 JUVENILE: Maybe NYQUIST will show us that we have an incredible Kentucky Derby candidate on our hands. But I doubt it given the pedigree, and none of these others juveniles have really shown me all that much just yet. I hope we do see something transcendent, however, and that's always the fun part of this race.

#8 F&M SPRINT: This race might turn out to be better than I'm giving it credit for right now, but JUDY THE BEAUTY on real dirt is pretty "meh," I'm yet to be convinced that CAVORTING is doing anything other than beating up on subpar 3-year-old sprinters, and ARTEMIS AGROTERA hasn't run in a year. The nice thing about this race is that I think I'll get good betting value on whoever I ultimately like, but I'm just not blown away by the quality of the field at all.

#7 TURF MILE: I will always call it the *TURF* Mile simply because I don't understand why nobody else does. Calling it simply THE MILE just seems weird to me, but maybe they do that because the only people that seemingly care about sending good horses to it are the rest of the world. The defending champ KARAKONTIE is back along with a bunch of other top-notch foreigners, but it's hard to get *too* excited about horses you haven't seen all year long. But I'm still plenty excited.

#6 JUVENILE FILLIES: I'm more excited for this race than I have been in a while given how incredible SONGBIRD has looked to date and then the lineage of RACHEL'S VALENTINA and how good she has looked to date. In fact, I'm probably unreasonably excited for this one, but so be it.

#5 DIRT MILE: A lot of serious horse racing people seem to like to disparage the Dirt Mile as being unworthy of Breeders' Cup designation. But these same people love the Met Mile. Go figure. Anyway, we'll wait to see exactly who ends up here given that some of the bigger name horses are cross-entered, but while LIAM'S MAP will be strongly favored to be the next GOLDENCENTS here, horses like VALID and MR Z and BRADESTER are likely to make him work early, so TAPITURE/RED VINE/BARBADOS could be interesting late. Should be a fun one.

#4 TURF: Most of this ranking is based on seeing what GOLDEN HORN can do. And then there's THE PIZZA MAN, one of the all-around coolest horses in training, so those two alone sort of almost make up for the absence of FLINTSHIRE, who chose to go to Japan instead of coming back to the Breeders' Cup. A lot of the other American horses are your run of the mill Saturday Grade 1 turf stake types, but they're all hard-trying types you have to respect.

#3 DISTAFF: I'm really glad BEHOLDER is running in the Classic for a lot of reasons, but the Distaff benefits from it almost as much as the Classic. With BEHOLDER, the Distaff is essentially a walkover. Without her, there are probably 10 horses with a very reasonable chance of winning. I see a lot of very good horses, but no great horses (UNTAPABLE can't be called great at this point, sorry). The pace scenario will be interesting. Can't wait.

#2 SPRINT: This is American racing, so the Sprint is always super-competitive and intriguing. PRIVATE ZONE running here and not the Dirt Mile seems like a mistake to me, but alas, we'll see how things go for him against the rest of the top-notch speed signed on. I'm really interested to see what happens with RUNHAPPY. Other than his ruinous start in the one-mile LeComte, he has repeatedly impressed the hell out of me, and so far his sprint efforts have stamped him as one of the most incredible speed horses I've ever seen. Even just those two facing off would be exciting, so I can't wait to see what happens with all the rest.

#1 CLASSIC: Well, duh. This is simply a stupendous running of the Classic. You've got the boy vs. girl AMERICAN PHAROAH-BEHOLDER story line, and that alone would make this race absolutely awesome. But then you toss in GLENEAGLES, a superlative miler in Europe. Stout closers like TONALIST and HONOR CODE. Great 3-year-olds in FROSTED and KEEN ICE. And, finally, a lightly-raced 4-year-old in SMOOTH ROLLER who could be the most talented horse in the field somehow. (I'm not mentioning EFFINEX and HARD ACES for a reason, although it's worth noting that EFFINEX beat TONALIST at this distance in their last try on a fast track!) Anyway, I have a million words to come on this race, but I'll tease it by saying that I see the winner coming from off the pace ...

All in all, I'd say I'm truly *excited* for six races, *looking forward* to three, and then sort of just *along for the ride* with the other four. Saturday is of course the best day with nine races of top-tier competition, but Friday notches two of the top five despite only having four races (unfortunately, it also has the bottom two). That's all for now -- volumes more on the way in the next few days!