As difficult as the Kentucky Derby is to predict, the Belmont Stakes might be even harder in theory -- none of these horses will ever run this far again in their careers, and they're running at least two full furlongs further than they ever have before.
On the other hand, it's easier. The field is smaller, pedigrees matter more, and running style matters more -- very rarely is this race won by a true deep closer.
A Triple Crown was on the line the past two years, of course, and that depressed the fields a bit in those years. TONALIST was a very logical winner in 2014 based on his pedigree, and of course AMERICAN PHAROAH was brilliant in turning back FROSTED at the top of the stretch last year.
But it's the two years prior that I want to look to in order to decode this year's edition. 2013 saw Derby also-ran PALACE MALICE turn the tables on ORB, and 2012 saw Derby also-ran UNION RAGS wear down PAYNTER late.
That is admittedly a short sample, but I've seen other statistics that bear out a similar story -- horses that run in the Derby but skip the Preakness before returning for the Belmont have somewhat of a leg up on the competition. The Derby puts a good foundation into horses given that it's 10 furlongs, but the horses also get five weeks off -- that's a relatively "normal" period of time for horses these days, rather than running three times in five weeks like EXAGGERATOR and LANI will be doing, or running only three weeks apart like STRADIVARI and CHERRY WINE will be doing. That's not to say that none of those horses can win, but it puts them at a disadvantage in my mind.
You also have GETTYSBURG, who ran a non-impact third in his last race only a few weeks ago on May 26. I think he's likely entered primarily as a rabbit for CREATOR, so it's hard to take his chances seriously. More on that later. And then you have SEEKING THE SOUL and FOREVER D'ORO, two true longshots who just broke their maidens on May 29.
Horses coming out of the Peter Pan have also done well (see TONALIST), and it's easy to see why there, too -- it's a nine furlong race run over the same Belmont track, and it's four weeks before the final jewel of the Triple Crown. GOVERNOR MALIBU falls into this category. He runs like he'll run forever, and Clement of course trained TONALIST in 2014. He's also one of the more tactical horses in the race; he does his best running late, but he doesn't drop a mile out the back of the pack like many others. He must be considered.
Beyond that, we're left with the Derby horses who didn't run in the Preakness: DESTIN, BRODY'S CAUSE, SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS, CREATOR and TROJAN NATION.
I've had DESTIN in my gut as my pick really since the time I found out he was running here -- his style fits perfectly for this race, the Derby-Belmont layoff is in his favor, and he ran a better-than-it-seems sixth in the Derby despite coming into the race on a two-month layoff and being knocked around at the start. My only reservation is with the damside stamina; 12 furlongs is almost double the average winning distance for the offspring of SIBERIAN SUMMER.
BRODY'S CAUSE has never run a speed figure fast enough to win based on that alone, but throw the speed figures out in this race. The pedigree is strong for this distance, and what I like about him that separates him from some of the other S0 horses in this race (and there are six of them total, along with an S2 -- for the uninitiated, this means late speed horses), is that he's more of an intermediate closer as opposed to a truly deep closer like SUDDENBREAKINGNWES for instance. He's actually quite similar to EXAGGERATOR in that regard in my mind; he was only 11 lengths back at the first call of the Derby vs. 21 for a horse like CREATOR and 27 for SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS. He doesn't have the same eye-catching move, but he's very athletic and seems to just grind. That's perfect for Belmont, and he's obviously more well-rested than EXAGGERATOR and will be a much bigger price.
SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS was flying late in the Derby, so he should easily win with another 1/4 mile to run down the leaders, right? Well, no, you should know by now that it doesn't really work that way. The pedigree is kind of neutral. He'll get 12 furlongs, but I don't think he's truly "made for it." That late punch will be neutralized by the extra distance in my mind. Getting Mike Smith aboard may be a plus -- Mike knows he can't be so far back. He did pair up speed figures between the Kentucky and Arkansas Derby, so that would indicate to me that he'll move forward again. At the end of the day, it wouldn't surprise me if he won, but I'll bet against that late closer at Belmont every time.
CREATOR has a rabbit in GETTYSBURG (seriously, the owners gave the horse a new trainer -- CREATOR's trainer -- just so Pletcher didn't have to enter him against STRADIVARI and DESTIN), which may help him ... and it is of course going to also help those aforementioned five other late speed horses. So the late speed style is a detriment in my mind. On the other hand, he was commencing a withering late run in the Derby before getting knocked sideways (see this tweet: https://twitter.com/noneedtocallit/status/729866529316069376/photo/1), and I think he was moving just as well as EXAGGERATOR, only his jockey decided to go wide rather than staying inside. He also gets a new jockey -- Irad Ortiz, a perennial leading jockey in New York -- so that should move him up as well, and the pedigree is a plus with a Peruvian mare out of PRIVATELY HELD and TAPIT as the sire. TAPIT is sort of a neutral/minus influence for 12 furlongs in my mind, but the damside makes it overall good. So ... I don't know. Here again, I think you sort of have to toss based on principle, because otherwise you end up including every horse.
TROJAN NATION is still a maiden and while his pedigree for this is pretty strong, he's, you know, still a maiden for a reason. He didn't get away from the gate cleanly in the Derby, but he also never showed any inkling of running and was never better than 16th. No thank you.
With all of that said, it's pretty clear that I favor BRODY'S CAUSE, GOVERNOR MALIBU and DESTIN out of that group, and probably in that order. Now let's circle back to the horses that don't necessarily fit my "magic" profile and touch on them.
GETTYSBURG truly was entered as a rabbit. There's no other way around it. His presence does hurt the Pletcher horses, who otherwise figured to sit on the lead with no real pressure. My guess is that Winstar told Todd they wanted to enter him, Todd said absolutely not, and they took him away accordingly. Todd and Winstar have a pretty close relationship (they won the Derby together with SUPER SAVER), so there are a few ways to read this ... and none of them are good for GETTYSBURG. One way to read it is that Todd simply feels GETTYSBURG is clearly inferior to his other two entrants. Why run a horse against competition you don't think you can beat? Another way to read it is that Winstar really, really thinks highly of CREATOR, and they are desperate to give him every chance to win this race and become a highly sought-after stallion prospect as a son of TAPIT with some serious distance on his damside. Granted, those two theories could both be true .. and GETTYSBURG is not flattered by either interpretation. What's interesting about him, however, is that the pedigree is pretty solid, and he ran a darn good fifth in the Arkansas Derby, carving out fractions of :46 1/5 and 1:10 3/5 and still holding on reasonably well to finish only five lengths back. Still, I think even the most generous read here is that he's a rabbit they think might still be able to hit the board.
CHERRY WINE got a pretty great pace setup in the Preakness and powered home strongly, but he almost surely benefited from the mud based on his pedigree (his one other off-track race was his maiden-breaking nine-length tour de force last fall). Romans has said BRODY'S CAUSE is very likely the better horse (he trains both), but that CHERRY WINE is doing well and deserves a shot. Trainers say a lot of junk, but I believe Romans for the most part, and I do think BRODY'S CAUSE is better in this spot. CHERRY WINE's pedigree is rather "meh" -- I still think he belongs on turf long-term -- and while he does have a very similar running style to BRODY'S CAUSE in that he's generally not been a "from the clouds" closer, I think he is a bit later with his move, and he's also just not as talented in my view. Plus he only has the three week break, so he's a toss.
SEEKING THE SOUL and FOREVER D'ORO are coming off just two-week breaks, have both raced only three times, and have both won only once, and are both trained by Dallas Stewart and owned by Charles Fipke. SEEKING THE SOUL ran a fast mile in 1:34 flat last out, but that was set up by :22 2/5, :44 4/5 and 1:09 fractions; he came home in :25, which is surely not bad, but I think most of these would do better. The pedigree is OK, but not great for 1.5 miles, and he might belong on the turf long-term, too. FOREVER D'ORO hasn't run the speed figure that SEEKING THE SOUL has, but I like his chances a bit more. The pedigree is better, and he's lightly raced enough that we just don't really know yet. But this will be his third race since May 7 -- so basically he's run a full Triple Crown schedule. No thanks.
LANI is probably the best bred for this distance in the field and has been worked to run ten miles at a time, basically, so it always seemed like this would be his best chance for glory in America. He has apparently looked great at Belmont, too. The three races in five weeks bothers me, of course, and there's also the nagging feeling that he's just been passing tired horses in the prior two races. But maybe that's just it -- maybe they'll all be tired here except for him? He seems to be getting some people excited, but all the work and all the racing has to take a toll at some point. I'll pass at a price I deem likely too short.
STRADIVARI could very well win the Belmont. He ran relatively well and evenly in the Preakness, never getting closer than two lengths to the lead and never falling more than five behind. He seems to me to be the most promising horse in the field just based on what we've seen he's capable of. On the other hand, 12 furlongs is really stretching it with this pedigree, and the presence of GETTYSBURG does truly make it impossible to see him on an easy, uncontested lead. Unless he's really just that good, I don't think this is the optimal spot for him. I would have rested him and targeted the Haskell ... which, to play contrarian with myself briefly, Todd is generally a genius with placing his horses, so maybe he knows what he's doing after all here. Even so, I'll pass.
And so we come to EXAGGERATOR. I have repeatedly been on record saying I think he's just as good on a dry track as a wet track, so throw tha part out. He's extremely consistent, and even though he has been falling well back in many of his races, the outside post here and the track profile make me think he might be placed somewhat closer. But I still think he'll move early, and you have to wonder if the size of these turns will find him on the lead mid-turn with still three furlongs left to run. And then there was the report that he floated the turn and was on is wrong lead for a while; Kent tried to explain this away as his fault, but a horse as seasoned as this shouldn't do that unless he's not comfortable on the track and/or maybe something is bothering him? He hasn't had a break yet this year and despite what Keith will say, that takes a toll eventually. Finally, the pedigree is not STRADIVARI-level questionable, but the damside is nothing to hang your hat on. Too many questions with this one at a short price.
So, BRODY'S CAUSE, GOVERNOR MALIBU and DESTIN are the plays. Bet them to win, and box them in various ways. I would play against EXAGGERATOR entirely -- despite his consistency to date, he's due to throw in a clunker, and Kent is well-known (for better and for worse) for not really persisting with a horse when he sees the hope of winning is lost. CREATOR and SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS would be the other two that I would use if you want to spread more.
All of that said, this is a pretty darn good betting race -- there are a lot of options and I wouldn't be particularly surprised if 10 different horses won. GOOD LUCK.
