With three experienced running backs and the bulk of the offensive line returning for Minnesota's football team this season, the expectation was that the Gophers would go only as far as young quarterback Tanner Morgan could take them.
As the upstart 8-0 squad prepares for its Game of the Century this Saturday at home against 8-0 Penn State, it remains up to Morgan -- only for a different reason than expected.
Morgan and his three future NFL wideouts (Tyler Johnson, Rashod Bateman and Chris Autman-Bell) have been the clear bright spot for a team that has struggled running the ball from time to time -- a struggle that's likely to rear its head against a Penn State run defense that has allowed just 3.19 yards per rush against teams that typically average 4.65 yards per rush. With Minnesota's rushing attack looking barely above average at 5.02 yards per rush against teams that typically allow 4.77 yards per rush, it's hard to see the Gophers clearing 4 yards per rush (The Chalice projects 3.72 yards per rush).
With tough sledding likely in the ground game, it's the passing game that Minnesota will need to be the difference maker. It's no secret that the Gophers haven't played a tough schedule to date, and Gophers opponents have typically given up 7.28 yards per pass play. But the Gophers have solidly exceeded that mark, averaging 8.95 yards per pass play. Meanwhile, although Penn State has played a much tougher schedule overall, they've actually faced a very weak schedule in regard to the passing game: their opponents have averaged just 5.65 yards per pass play. This is nearly a yard below the NCAA average as a whole, and it's no surprise when you think of the offensive statistics even generally "good" Penn State opponents like Iowa, Michigan State and Michigan have put up this year (not to mention Maryland, Purdue, Pittsburgh, Buffalo and Idaho).
While Penn State has allowed just 4.84 yards per pass to those teams (and as such rank fifth in passer rating allowed; coincidentally, Minnesota is fourth), it's clear that Minnesota's passing offense is unlike anything the Nittany Lions have faced in the past.
It's for that reason that the Gophers fans have reason to be hopeful against one of the top teams in the country.
While the stats overall are surely in favor of the Nittany Lions to win -- The Chalice projects 4.56 yards per rush and 7.7 yards per pass for Penn State to just 3.72 yards per rush and 7.34 yards per pass for Minnesota (full detail: Penn State averages 4.46 yards per rush against teams that allow 4.09 while Minnesota D allows 4.27 to teams that average 5.03; 7.4 yards per pass vs. teams that allow 5.87 yards per pass while Minnesota D allows 4.59 yards per pass vs. teams that average an almost impossibly poor 4.9 yards per pass) -- this is the biggest game Minnesota football has played in most people's lifetimes.
And it's at home. At 11 a.m. on what promises to be a crisp fall Saturday in Minneapolis. While Minnesota football fans have decades of PTSD from letdowns in big games, coach PJ Fleck's schtick-y yet inspiring ROW THE BOAT mantra has people believing that this year might finally be the one.
Prediction: ROW THE BOAT
Prediction: Minnesota 28, Penn State 27
Friday, November 8, 2019
Thursday, June 9, 2016
2016 BELMONT STAKES PREVIEW
As difficult as the Kentucky Derby is to predict, the Belmont Stakes might be even harder in theory -- none of these horses will ever run this far again in their careers, and they're running at least two full furlongs further than they ever have before.
On the other hand, it's easier. The field is smaller, pedigrees matter more, and running style matters more -- very rarely is this race won by a true deep closer.
A Triple Crown was on the line the past two years, of course, and that depressed the fields a bit in those years. TONALIST was a very logical winner in 2014 based on his pedigree, and of course AMERICAN PHAROAH was brilliant in turning back FROSTED at the top of the stretch last year.
But it's the two years prior that I want to look to in order to decode this year's edition. 2013 saw Derby also-ran PALACE MALICE turn the tables on ORB, and 2012 saw Derby also-ran UNION RAGS wear down PAYNTER late.
That is admittedly a short sample, but I've seen other statistics that bear out a similar story -- horses that run in the Derby but skip the Preakness before returning for the Belmont have somewhat of a leg up on the competition. The Derby puts a good foundation into horses given that it's 10 furlongs, but the horses also get five weeks off -- that's a relatively "normal" period of time for horses these days, rather than running three times in five weeks like EXAGGERATOR and LANI will be doing, or running only three weeks apart like STRADIVARI and CHERRY WINE will be doing. That's not to say that none of those horses can win, but it puts them at a disadvantage in my mind.
You also have GETTYSBURG, who ran a non-impact third in his last race only a few weeks ago on May 26. I think he's likely entered primarily as a rabbit for CREATOR, so it's hard to take his chances seriously. More on that later. And then you have SEEKING THE SOUL and FOREVER D'ORO, two true longshots who just broke their maidens on May 29.
Horses coming out of the Peter Pan have also done well (see TONALIST), and it's easy to see why there, too -- it's a nine furlong race run over the same Belmont track, and it's four weeks before the final jewel of the Triple Crown. GOVERNOR MALIBU falls into this category. He runs like he'll run forever, and Clement of course trained TONALIST in 2014. He's also one of the more tactical horses in the race; he does his best running late, but he doesn't drop a mile out the back of the pack like many others. He must be considered.
Beyond that, we're left with the Derby horses who didn't run in the Preakness: DESTIN, BRODY'S CAUSE, SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS, CREATOR and TROJAN NATION.
I've had DESTIN in my gut as my pick really since the time I found out he was running here -- his style fits perfectly for this race, the Derby-Belmont layoff is in his favor, and he ran a better-than-it-seems sixth in the Derby despite coming into the race on a two-month layoff and being knocked around at the start. My only reservation is with the damside stamina; 12 furlongs is almost double the average winning distance for the offspring of SIBERIAN SUMMER.
BRODY'S CAUSE has never run a speed figure fast enough to win based on that alone, but throw the speed figures out in this race. The pedigree is strong for this distance, and what I like about him that separates him from some of the other S0 horses in this race (and there are six of them total, along with an S2 -- for the uninitiated, this means late speed horses), is that he's more of an intermediate closer as opposed to a truly deep closer like SUDDENBREAKINGNWES for instance. He's actually quite similar to EXAGGERATOR in that regard in my mind; he was only 11 lengths back at the first call of the Derby vs. 21 for a horse like CREATOR and 27 for SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS. He doesn't have the same eye-catching move, but he's very athletic and seems to just grind. That's perfect for Belmont, and he's obviously more well-rested than EXAGGERATOR and will be a much bigger price.
SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS was flying late in the Derby, so he should easily win with another 1/4 mile to run down the leaders, right? Well, no, you should know by now that it doesn't really work that way. The pedigree is kind of neutral. He'll get 12 furlongs, but I don't think he's truly "made for it." That late punch will be neutralized by the extra distance in my mind. Getting Mike Smith aboard may be a plus -- Mike knows he can't be so far back. He did pair up speed figures between the Kentucky and Arkansas Derby, so that would indicate to me that he'll move forward again. At the end of the day, it wouldn't surprise me if he won, but I'll bet against that late closer at Belmont every time.
CREATOR has a rabbit in GETTYSBURG (seriously, the owners gave the horse a new trainer -- CREATOR's trainer -- just so Pletcher didn't have to enter him against STRADIVARI and DESTIN), which may help him ... and it is of course going to also help those aforementioned five other late speed horses. So the late speed style is a detriment in my mind. On the other hand, he was commencing a withering late run in the Derby before getting knocked sideways (see this tweet: https://twitter.com/noneedtocallit/status/729866529316069376/photo/1), and I think he was moving just as well as EXAGGERATOR, only his jockey decided to go wide rather than staying inside. He also gets a new jockey -- Irad Ortiz, a perennial leading jockey in New York -- so that should move him up as well, and the pedigree is a plus with a Peruvian mare out of PRIVATELY HELD and TAPIT as the sire. TAPIT is sort of a neutral/minus influence for 12 furlongs in my mind, but the damside makes it overall good. So ... I don't know. Here again, I think you sort of have to toss based on principle, because otherwise you end up including every horse.
TROJAN NATION is still a maiden and while his pedigree for this is pretty strong, he's, you know, still a maiden for a reason. He didn't get away from the gate cleanly in the Derby, but he also never showed any inkling of running and was never better than 16th. No thank you.
With all of that said, it's pretty clear that I favor BRODY'S CAUSE, GOVERNOR MALIBU and DESTIN out of that group, and probably in that order. Now let's circle back to the horses that don't necessarily fit my "magic" profile and touch on them.
GETTYSBURG truly was entered as a rabbit. There's no other way around it. His presence does hurt the Pletcher horses, who otherwise figured to sit on the lead with no real pressure. My guess is that Winstar told Todd they wanted to enter him, Todd said absolutely not, and they took him away accordingly. Todd and Winstar have a pretty close relationship (they won the Derby together with SUPER SAVER), so there are a few ways to read this ... and none of them are good for GETTYSBURG. One way to read it is that Todd simply feels GETTYSBURG is clearly inferior to his other two entrants. Why run a horse against competition you don't think you can beat? Another way to read it is that Winstar really, really thinks highly of CREATOR, and they are desperate to give him every chance to win this race and become a highly sought-after stallion prospect as a son of TAPIT with some serious distance on his damside. Granted, those two theories could both be true .. and GETTYSBURG is not flattered by either interpretation. What's interesting about him, however, is that the pedigree is pretty solid, and he ran a darn good fifth in the Arkansas Derby, carving out fractions of :46 1/5 and 1:10 3/5 and still holding on reasonably well to finish only five lengths back. Still, I think even the most generous read here is that he's a rabbit they think might still be able to hit the board.
CHERRY WINE got a pretty great pace setup in the Preakness and powered home strongly, but he almost surely benefited from the mud based on his pedigree (his one other off-track race was his maiden-breaking nine-length tour de force last fall). Romans has said BRODY'S CAUSE is very likely the better horse (he trains both), but that CHERRY WINE is doing well and deserves a shot. Trainers say a lot of junk, but I believe Romans for the most part, and I do think BRODY'S CAUSE is better in this spot. CHERRY WINE's pedigree is rather "meh" -- I still think he belongs on turf long-term -- and while he does have a very similar running style to BRODY'S CAUSE in that he's generally not been a "from the clouds" closer, I think he is a bit later with his move, and he's also just not as talented in my view. Plus he only has the three week break, so he's a toss.
SEEKING THE SOUL and FOREVER D'ORO are coming off just two-week breaks, have both raced only three times, and have both won only once, and are both trained by Dallas Stewart and owned by Charles Fipke. SEEKING THE SOUL ran a fast mile in 1:34 flat last out, but that was set up by :22 2/5, :44 4/5 and 1:09 fractions; he came home in :25, which is surely not bad, but I think most of these would do better. The pedigree is OK, but not great for 1.5 miles, and he might belong on the turf long-term, too. FOREVER D'ORO hasn't run the speed figure that SEEKING THE SOUL has, but I like his chances a bit more. The pedigree is better, and he's lightly raced enough that we just don't really know yet. But this will be his third race since May 7 -- so basically he's run a full Triple Crown schedule. No thanks.
LANI is probably the best bred for this distance in the field and has been worked to run ten miles at a time, basically, so it always seemed like this would be his best chance for glory in America. He has apparently looked great at Belmont, too. The three races in five weeks bothers me, of course, and there's also the nagging feeling that he's just been passing tired horses in the prior two races. But maybe that's just it -- maybe they'll all be tired here except for him? He seems to be getting some people excited, but all the work and all the racing has to take a toll at some point. I'll pass at a price I deem likely too short.
STRADIVARI could very well win the Belmont. He ran relatively well and evenly in the Preakness, never getting closer than two lengths to the lead and never falling more than five behind. He seems to me to be the most promising horse in the field just based on what we've seen he's capable of. On the other hand, 12 furlongs is really stretching it with this pedigree, and the presence of GETTYSBURG does truly make it impossible to see him on an easy, uncontested lead. Unless he's really just that good, I don't think this is the optimal spot for him. I would have rested him and targeted the Haskell ... which, to play contrarian with myself briefly, Todd is generally a genius with placing his horses, so maybe he knows what he's doing after all here. Even so, I'll pass.
And so we come to EXAGGERATOR. I have repeatedly been on record saying I think he's just as good on a dry track as a wet track, so throw tha part out. He's extremely consistent, and even though he has been falling well back in many of his races, the outside post here and the track profile make me think he might be placed somewhat closer. But I still think he'll move early, and you have to wonder if the size of these turns will find him on the lead mid-turn with still three furlongs left to run. And then there was the report that he floated the turn and was on is wrong lead for a while; Kent tried to explain this away as his fault, but a horse as seasoned as this shouldn't do that unless he's not comfortable on the track and/or maybe something is bothering him? He hasn't had a break yet this year and despite what Keith will say, that takes a toll eventually. Finally, the pedigree is not STRADIVARI-level questionable, but the damside is nothing to hang your hat on. Too many questions with this one at a short price.
So, BRODY'S CAUSE, GOVERNOR MALIBU and DESTIN are the plays. Bet them to win, and box them in various ways. I would play against EXAGGERATOR entirely -- despite his consistency to date, he's due to throw in a clunker, and Kent is well-known (for better and for worse) for not really persisting with a horse when he sees the hope of winning is lost. CREATOR and SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS would be the other two that I would use if you want to spread more.
All of that said, this is a pretty darn good betting race -- there are a lot of options and I wouldn't be particularly surprised if 10 different horses won. GOOD LUCK.
On the other hand, it's easier. The field is smaller, pedigrees matter more, and running style matters more -- very rarely is this race won by a true deep closer.
A Triple Crown was on the line the past two years, of course, and that depressed the fields a bit in those years. TONALIST was a very logical winner in 2014 based on his pedigree, and of course AMERICAN PHAROAH was brilliant in turning back FROSTED at the top of the stretch last year.
But it's the two years prior that I want to look to in order to decode this year's edition. 2013 saw Derby also-ran PALACE MALICE turn the tables on ORB, and 2012 saw Derby also-ran UNION RAGS wear down PAYNTER late.
That is admittedly a short sample, but I've seen other statistics that bear out a similar story -- horses that run in the Derby but skip the Preakness before returning for the Belmont have somewhat of a leg up on the competition. The Derby puts a good foundation into horses given that it's 10 furlongs, but the horses also get five weeks off -- that's a relatively "normal" period of time for horses these days, rather than running three times in five weeks like EXAGGERATOR and LANI will be doing, or running only three weeks apart like STRADIVARI and CHERRY WINE will be doing. That's not to say that none of those horses can win, but it puts them at a disadvantage in my mind.
You also have GETTYSBURG, who ran a non-impact third in his last race only a few weeks ago on May 26. I think he's likely entered primarily as a rabbit for CREATOR, so it's hard to take his chances seriously. More on that later. And then you have SEEKING THE SOUL and FOREVER D'ORO, two true longshots who just broke their maidens on May 29.
Horses coming out of the Peter Pan have also done well (see TONALIST), and it's easy to see why there, too -- it's a nine furlong race run over the same Belmont track, and it's four weeks before the final jewel of the Triple Crown. GOVERNOR MALIBU falls into this category. He runs like he'll run forever, and Clement of course trained TONALIST in 2014. He's also one of the more tactical horses in the race; he does his best running late, but he doesn't drop a mile out the back of the pack like many others. He must be considered.
Beyond that, we're left with the Derby horses who didn't run in the Preakness: DESTIN, BRODY'S CAUSE, SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS, CREATOR and TROJAN NATION.
I've had DESTIN in my gut as my pick really since the time I found out he was running here -- his style fits perfectly for this race, the Derby-Belmont layoff is in his favor, and he ran a better-than-it-seems sixth in the Derby despite coming into the race on a two-month layoff and being knocked around at the start. My only reservation is with the damside stamina; 12 furlongs is almost double the average winning distance for the offspring of SIBERIAN SUMMER.
BRODY'S CAUSE has never run a speed figure fast enough to win based on that alone, but throw the speed figures out in this race. The pedigree is strong for this distance, and what I like about him that separates him from some of the other S0 horses in this race (and there are six of them total, along with an S2 -- for the uninitiated, this means late speed horses), is that he's more of an intermediate closer as opposed to a truly deep closer like SUDDENBREAKINGNWES for instance. He's actually quite similar to EXAGGERATOR in that regard in my mind; he was only 11 lengths back at the first call of the Derby vs. 21 for a horse like CREATOR and 27 for SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS. He doesn't have the same eye-catching move, but he's very athletic and seems to just grind. That's perfect for Belmont, and he's obviously more well-rested than EXAGGERATOR and will be a much bigger price.
SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS was flying late in the Derby, so he should easily win with another 1/4 mile to run down the leaders, right? Well, no, you should know by now that it doesn't really work that way. The pedigree is kind of neutral. He'll get 12 furlongs, but I don't think he's truly "made for it." That late punch will be neutralized by the extra distance in my mind. Getting Mike Smith aboard may be a plus -- Mike knows he can't be so far back. He did pair up speed figures between the Kentucky and Arkansas Derby, so that would indicate to me that he'll move forward again. At the end of the day, it wouldn't surprise me if he won, but I'll bet against that late closer at Belmont every time.
CREATOR has a rabbit in GETTYSBURG (seriously, the owners gave the horse a new trainer -- CREATOR's trainer -- just so Pletcher didn't have to enter him against STRADIVARI and DESTIN), which may help him ... and it is of course going to also help those aforementioned five other late speed horses. So the late speed style is a detriment in my mind. On the other hand, he was commencing a withering late run in the Derby before getting knocked sideways (see this tweet: https://twitter.com/noneedtocallit/status/729866529316069376/photo/1), and I think he was moving just as well as EXAGGERATOR, only his jockey decided to go wide rather than staying inside. He also gets a new jockey -- Irad Ortiz, a perennial leading jockey in New York -- so that should move him up as well, and the pedigree is a plus with a Peruvian mare out of PRIVATELY HELD and TAPIT as the sire. TAPIT is sort of a neutral/minus influence for 12 furlongs in my mind, but the damside makes it overall good. So ... I don't know. Here again, I think you sort of have to toss based on principle, because otherwise you end up including every horse.
TROJAN NATION is still a maiden and while his pedigree for this is pretty strong, he's, you know, still a maiden for a reason. He didn't get away from the gate cleanly in the Derby, but he also never showed any inkling of running and was never better than 16th. No thank you.
With all of that said, it's pretty clear that I favor BRODY'S CAUSE, GOVERNOR MALIBU and DESTIN out of that group, and probably in that order. Now let's circle back to the horses that don't necessarily fit my "magic" profile and touch on them.
GETTYSBURG truly was entered as a rabbit. There's no other way around it. His presence does hurt the Pletcher horses, who otherwise figured to sit on the lead with no real pressure. My guess is that Winstar told Todd they wanted to enter him, Todd said absolutely not, and they took him away accordingly. Todd and Winstar have a pretty close relationship (they won the Derby together with SUPER SAVER), so there are a few ways to read this ... and none of them are good for GETTYSBURG. One way to read it is that Todd simply feels GETTYSBURG is clearly inferior to his other two entrants. Why run a horse against competition you don't think you can beat? Another way to read it is that Winstar really, really thinks highly of CREATOR, and they are desperate to give him every chance to win this race and become a highly sought-after stallion prospect as a son of TAPIT with some serious distance on his damside. Granted, those two theories could both be true .. and GETTYSBURG is not flattered by either interpretation. What's interesting about him, however, is that the pedigree is pretty solid, and he ran a darn good fifth in the Arkansas Derby, carving out fractions of :46 1/5 and 1:10 3/5 and still holding on reasonably well to finish only five lengths back. Still, I think even the most generous read here is that he's a rabbit they think might still be able to hit the board.
CHERRY WINE got a pretty great pace setup in the Preakness and powered home strongly, but he almost surely benefited from the mud based on his pedigree (his one other off-track race was his maiden-breaking nine-length tour de force last fall). Romans has said BRODY'S CAUSE is very likely the better horse (he trains both), but that CHERRY WINE is doing well and deserves a shot. Trainers say a lot of junk, but I believe Romans for the most part, and I do think BRODY'S CAUSE is better in this spot. CHERRY WINE's pedigree is rather "meh" -- I still think he belongs on turf long-term -- and while he does have a very similar running style to BRODY'S CAUSE in that he's generally not been a "from the clouds" closer, I think he is a bit later with his move, and he's also just not as talented in my view. Plus he only has the three week break, so he's a toss.
SEEKING THE SOUL and FOREVER D'ORO are coming off just two-week breaks, have both raced only three times, and have both won only once, and are both trained by Dallas Stewart and owned by Charles Fipke. SEEKING THE SOUL ran a fast mile in 1:34 flat last out, but that was set up by :22 2/5, :44 4/5 and 1:09 fractions; he came home in :25, which is surely not bad, but I think most of these would do better. The pedigree is OK, but not great for 1.5 miles, and he might belong on the turf long-term, too. FOREVER D'ORO hasn't run the speed figure that SEEKING THE SOUL has, but I like his chances a bit more. The pedigree is better, and he's lightly raced enough that we just don't really know yet. But this will be his third race since May 7 -- so basically he's run a full Triple Crown schedule. No thanks.
LANI is probably the best bred for this distance in the field and has been worked to run ten miles at a time, basically, so it always seemed like this would be his best chance for glory in America. He has apparently looked great at Belmont, too. The three races in five weeks bothers me, of course, and there's also the nagging feeling that he's just been passing tired horses in the prior two races. But maybe that's just it -- maybe they'll all be tired here except for him? He seems to be getting some people excited, but all the work and all the racing has to take a toll at some point. I'll pass at a price I deem likely too short.
STRADIVARI could very well win the Belmont. He ran relatively well and evenly in the Preakness, never getting closer than two lengths to the lead and never falling more than five behind. He seems to me to be the most promising horse in the field just based on what we've seen he's capable of. On the other hand, 12 furlongs is really stretching it with this pedigree, and the presence of GETTYSBURG does truly make it impossible to see him on an easy, uncontested lead. Unless he's really just that good, I don't think this is the optimal spot for him. I would have rested him and targeted the Haskell ... which, to play contrarian with myself briefly, Todd is generally a genius with placing his horses, so maybe he knows what he's doing after all here. Even so, I'll pass.
And so we come to EXAGGERATOR. I have repeatedly been on record saying I think he's just as good on a dry track as a wet track, so throw tha part out. He's extremely consistent, and even though he has been falling well back in many of his races, the outside post here and the track profile make me think he might be placed somewhat closer. But I still think he'll move early, and you have to wonder if the size of these turns will find him on the lead mid-turn with still three furlongs left to run. And then there was the report that he floated the turn and was on is wrong lead for a while; Kent tried to explain this away as his fault, but a horse as seasoned as this shouldn't do that unless he's not comfortable on the track and/or maybe something is bothering him? He hasn't had a break yet this year and despite what Keith will say, that takes a toll eventually. Finally, the pedigree is not STRADIVARI-level questionable, but the damside is nothing to hang your hat on. Too many questions with this one at a short price.
So, BRODY'S CAUSE, GOVERNOR MALIBU and DESTIN are the plays. Bet them to win, and box them in various ways. I would play against EXAGGERATOR entirely -- despite his consistency to date, he's due to throw in a clunker, and Kent is well-known (for better and for worse) for not really persisting with a horse when he sees the hope of winning is lost. CREATOR and SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS would be the other two that I would use if you want to spread more.
All of that said, this is a pretty darn good betting race -- there are a lot of options and I wouldn't be particularly surprised if 10 different horses won. GOOD LUCK.
Wednesday, May 4, 2016
Sunday, March 13, 2016
THE BEST POOL EVER: 2016 EDITION
THE BEST MARCH MADNESS POOL EVER is back.
1. Each person gets a budget of $100 each week of the tournament (before the second/third rounds, before the Sweet 16/Elite 8, and before the Final 4/Championship).
2. Each person will select as many teams as they desire as long as said teams can fit in their budget.
3. Teams will earn points as follows:
Second round win = 1 point
Third round win = 3 points
Sweet 16 win = 2 points
Elite 8 win= 6 points
Final 4 win = 3 points
Championship win = 9 points
If you're wondering why the scoring works this way, it's because A) It's harder to pick the second game of the weekend than it is the first, B) It's harder to pick games later in the tournament, C) You need more points when there are less games to more properly even the scoring out (even though it's not necessarily completely even, it's a bit more distributed this way).
4. The most points at the end of the tournament wins. The winner will take 60% of the pot, second will take 30%, and third will take 10%.
5. The entry fee will be $30.
So, without further ado, here is the price list for week 1 (you'll note that I just guessed at play-in game winners; you only get the team I guessed below ... so you probably want to avoid those teams unless you feel super confident in Vandy, for instance):
Again, you can construct a squad of however many teams you would like AS LONG AS YOU STAY AT OR UNDER $100. Do you want to take a few apparent near sure-things (like Kansas and Virginia?) and a few longer shots, or do you take a ton of longshots? Or try for some happy medium?
Whatever you do, remember that even if your teams flame out this week, you'll be supplied with new team prices next week and should still have a chance to win regardless of what happened (last year, everyone was still in contention after the first weekend and only one of 11 people was eliminated entirely heading into the Final Four).
You can have as many entries as you want. Feel free to share with friends.
If you want to be in, send me an email at bobwothe@gmail.com titled 2016 NCAA POOL WEEK 1 TEAMS with your teams and $30 via PayPal (this is preferred -- bobwothe@gmail.com) or check (32 Country Court, Fond du Lac, WI 54935) by Wednesday, 3/16, at 10 p.m. CST. If you haven't gotten me the money or made other arrangements by then, your entry will not count, PERIOD.
Last thing: In order to remove any issues with me knowing other people's picks before giving my own, I will send my picks to a new email account each week before 11:59 p.m. CST Monday of that week. You will then need to get your picks to me by 11:59 p.m. CST Tuesday of that week. Then, Wednesday night/Thursday morning of each week, I will send out an email with a spreadsheet containing everyone's picks AS WELL AS the login credentials to the email account that I create. This will provide a timestamped version of my picks so that you can rest assured that I am not cheating.
As for this first week, I have already sent my entry on to this new email address, so you may send in your entries whenever you wish.
Let me know if you have any questions. Again, feel free to share this with others!
Here's a quick overview of the rules:
1. Each person gets a budget of $100 each week of the tournament (before the second/third rounds, before the Sweet 16/Elite 8, and before the Final 4/Championship).
2. Each person will select as many teams as they desire as long as said teams can fit in their budget.
3. Teams will earn points as follows:
Second round win = 1 point
Third round win = 3 points
Sweet 16 win = 2 points
Elite 8 win= 6 points
Final 4 win = 3 points
Championship win = 9 points
If you're wondering why the scoring works this way, it's because A) It's harder to pick the second game of the weekend than it is the first, B) It's harder to pick games later in the tournament, C) You need more points when there are less games to more properly even the scoring out (even though it's not necessarily completely even, it's a bit more distributed this way).
4. The most points at the end of the tournament wins. The winner will take 60% of the pot, second will take 30%, and third will take 10%.
5. The entry fee will be $30.
So, without further ado, here is the price list for week 1 (you'll note that I just guessed at play-in game winners; you only get the team I guessed below ... so you probably want to avoid those teams unless you feel super confident in Vandy, for instance):
| KANSAS | 41 |
| VIRGINIA | 40 |
| NORTH CAROLINA | 39 |
| MICHIGAN ST. | 39 |
| OKLAHOMA | 37 |
| VILLANOVA | 32 |
| OREGON | 32 |
| WEST VIRGINIA | 32 |
| TEXAS A&M | 30 |
| MIAMI FL | 26 |
| DUKE | 26 |
| PURDUE | 26 |
| KENTUCKY | 25 |
| XAVIER | 25 |
| UTAH | 25 |
| MARYLAND | 24 |
| INDIANA | 21 |
| IOWA ST. | 20 |
| CALIFORNIA | 19 |
| BAYLOR | 17 |
| IOWA | 16 |
| TEXAS | 16 |
| PITTSBURGH | 15 |
| CINCINNATI | 14 |
| VANDERBILT | 13 |
| GONZAGA | 13 |
| ARIZONA | 11 |
| SETON HALL | 10 |
| WISCONSIN | 9 |
| MICHIGAN | 8 |
| VCU | 7 |
| USC | 7 |
| NOTRE DAME | 7 |
| SYRACUSE | 7 |
| CONNECTICUT | 6 |
| OREGON ST. | 6 |
| BUTLER | 6 |
| YALE | 5 |
| SAINT JOSEPH'S | 4 |
| NORTHERN IOWA | 4 |
| PROVIDENCE | 4 |
| TEXAS TECH | 4 |
| DAYTON | 4 |
| COLORADO | 3 |
| SOUTH DAKOTA ST. | 3 |
| HAWAII | 3 |
| STEPHEN F. AUSTIN | 3 |
| ARKANSAS LITTLE ROCK | 3 |
| UNC WILMINGTON | 2 |
| CHATTANOOGA | 2 |
| STONY BROOK | 2 |
| FRESNO ST. | 2 |
| BUFFALO | 1 |
| TEMPLE | 1 |
| UNC ASHEVILLE | 1 |
| WISCONSIN GREEN BAY | 1 |
| CAL ST. BAKERSFIELD | 1 |
| WEBER ST. | 1 |
| IONA | 1 |
| AUSTIN PEAY | 1 |
| HOLY CROSS | 1 |
| FLORIDA GULF COAST | 1 |
| HAMPTON | 1 |
| MIDDLE TENNESSEE | 1 |
Again, you can construct a squad of however many teams you would like AS LONG AS YOU STAY AT OR UNDER $100. Do you want to take a few apparent near sure-things (like Kansas and Virginia?) and a few longer shots, or do you take a ton of longshots? Or try for some happy medium?
Whatever you do, remember that even if your teams flame out this week, you'll be supplied with new team prices next week and should still have a chance to win regardless of what happened (last year, everyone was still in contention after the first weekend and only one of 11 people was eliminated entirely heading into the Final Four).
You can have as many entries as you want. Feel free to share with friends.
If you want to be in, send me an email at bobwothe@gmail.com titled 2016 NCAA POOL WEEK 1 TEAMS with your teams and $30 via PayPal (this is preferred -- bobwothe@gmail.com) or check (32 Country Court, Fond du Lac, WI 54935) by Wednesday, 3/16, at 10 p.m. CST. If you haven't gotten me the money or made other arrangements by then, your entry will not count, PERIOD.
Last thing: In order to remove any issues with me knowing other people's picks before giving my own, I will send my picks to a new email account each week before 11:59 p.m. CST Monday of that week. You will then need to get your picks to me by 11:59 p.m. CST Tuesday of that week. Then, Wednesday night/Thursday morning of each week, I will send out an email with a spreadsheet containing everyone's picks AS WELL AS the login credentials to the email account that I create. This will provide a timestamped version of my picks so that you can rest assured that I am not cheating.
As for this first week, I have already sent my entry on to this new email address, so you may send in your entries whenever you wish.
Let me know if you have any questions. Again, feel free to share this with others!
Sunday, October 25, 2015
2015 WOTHISM BREEDERS' CUP PREVIEW
I'm so giddy.
For a guy who's undergoing willful injury to his pelvic region (read: I'm getting a vasectomy) on Thursday, I couldn't be much more excited about this week. One hundred and forty hours to go to the Breeders' Cup Classic and an absolutely epic showdown between the likes of AMERICAN PHAROAH and BEHOLDER (and plenty of others that I'll probably actually bet rather than those two, but we'll get to that later).
The post position draw is tomorrow, Oct. 26, so I won't get too in-depth with my previews just yet. But given my level of excitement, I need to blow off some steam here, so what follows is a reverse 13-1 ranking of the races I'm most excited for:
#13 JUVENILE TURF: Listen, I watch a lot of horse racing. And the list of names on the pre-entries list is almost wholly unfamiliar to me. Some of the Euros making the trip over seem to be pretty good at first glance, but if this wasn't a Breeders' Cup race, I would think about not betting it at all.
#12 JUVENILE FILLIES TURF: This race at least has some recognizable "bigger" names in line to run against the strong Euro contingent. I'm still not too excited about betting a number of juveniles going long on the turf for the first or second time, but it's one of the better juvenile fillies turf renditions I can remember.
#11 TURF SPRINT: Don't get me wrong, I like some of the horses here, but this doesn't do much more for me than any other random G3 turf sprint across the nation on any other random Saturday. This was one of the most exciting races last year with BOBBY'S KITTEN storming from well back late to claim the title, but that was also on the downhill turf course at Santa Anita vs. a rather pedestrian 5.5 furlongs at Keeneland.
#10 F&M TURF: It's nice to see STEPHANIE'S KITTEN keep rolling along and all, and seeing her against the seemingly top-notch Euros that are coming will be nice, but the rest of the American contingent is like the rest of this division ... uninspiring.
#9 JUVENILE: Maybe NYQUIST will show us that we have an incredible Kentucky Derby candidate on our hands. But I doubt it given the pedigree, and none of these others juveniles have really shown me all that much just yet. I hope we do see something transcendent, however, and that's always the fun part of this race.
#8 F&M SPRINT: This race might turn out to be better than I'm giving it credit for right now, but JUDY THE BEAUTY on real dirt is pretty "meh," I'm yet to be convinced that CAVORTING is doing anything other than beating up on subpar 3-year-old sprinters, and ARTEMIS AGROTERA hasn't run in a year. The nice thing about this race is that I think I'll get good betting value on whoever I ultimately like, but I'm just not blown away by the quality of the field at all.
#7 TURF MILE: I will always call it the *TURF* Mile simply because I don't understand why nobody else does. Calling it simply THE MILE just seems weird to me, but maybe they do that because the only people that seemingly care about sending good horses to it are the rest of the world. The defending champ KARAKONTIE is back along with a bunch of other top-notch foreigners, but it's hard to get *too* excited about horses you haven't seen all year long. But I'm still plenty excited.
#6 JUVENILE FILLIES: I'm more excited for this race than I have been in a while given how incredible SONGBIRD has looked to date and then the lineage of RACHEL'S VALENTINA and how good she has looked to date. In fact, I'm probably unreasonably excited for this one, but so be it.
#5 DIRT MILE: A lot of serious horse racing people seem to like to disparage the Dirt Mile as being unworthy of Breeders' Cup designation. But these same people love the Met Mile. Go figure. Anyway, we'll wait to see exactly who ends up here given that some of the bigger name horses are cross-entered, but while LIAM'S MAP will be strongly favored to be the next GOLDENCENTS here, horses like VALID and MR Z and BRADESTER are likely to make him work early, so TAPITURE/RED VINE/BARBADOS could be interesting late. Should be a fun one.
#4 TURF: Most of this ranking is based on seeing what GOLDEN HORN can do. And then there's THE PIZZA MAN, one of the all-around coolest horses in training, so those two alone sort of almost make up for the absence of FLINTSHIRE, who chose to go to Japan instead of coming back to the Breeders' Cup. A lot of the other American horses are your run of the mill Saturday Grade 1 turf stake types, but they're all hard-trying types you have to respect.
#3 DISTAFF: I'm really glad BEHOLDER is running in the Classic for a lot of reasons, but the Distaff benefits from it almost as much as the Classic. With BEHOLDER, the Distaff is essentially a walkover. Without her, there are probably 10 horses with a very reasonable chance of winning. I see a lot of very good horses, but no great horses (UNTAPABLE can't be called great at this point, sorry). The pace scenario will be interesting. Can't wait.
#2 SPRINT: This is American racing, so the Sprint is always super-competitive and intriguing. PRIVATE ZONE running here and not the Dirt Mile seems like a mistake to me, but alas, we'll see how things go for him against the rest of the top-notch speed signed on. I'm really interested to see what happens with RUNHAPPY. Other than his ruinous start in the one-mile LeComte, he has repeatedly impressed the hell out of me, and so far his sprint efforts have stamped him as one of the most incredible speed horses I've ever seen. Even just those two facing off would be exciting, so I can't wait to see what happens with all the rest.
#1 CLASSIC: Well, duh. This is simply a stupendous running of the Classic. You've got the boy vs. girl AMERICAN PHAROAH-BEHOLDER story line, and that alone would make this race absolutely awesome. But then you toss in GLENEAGLES, a superlative miler in Europe. Stout closers like TONALIST and HONOR CODE. Great 3-year-olds in FROSTED and KEEN ICE. And, finally, a lightly-raced 4-year-old in SMOOTH ROLLER who could be the most talented horse in the field somehow. (I'm not mentioning EFFINEX and HARD ACES for a reason, although it's worth noting that EFFINEX beat TONALIST at this distance in their last try on a fast track!) Anyway, I have a million words to come on this race, but I'll tease it by saying that I see the winner coming from off the pace ...
All in all, I'd say I'm truly *excited* for six races, *looking forward* to three, and then sort of just *along for the ride* with the other four. Saturday is of course the best day with nine races of top-tier competition, but Friday notches two of the top five despite only having four races (unfortunately, it also has the bottom two). That's all for now -- volumes more on the way in the next few days!
For a guy who's undergoing willful injury to his pelvic region (read: I'm getting a vasectomy) on Thursday, I couldn't be much more excited about this week. One hundred and forty hours to go to the Breeders' Cup Classic and an absolutely epic showdown between the likes of AMERICAN PHAROAH and BEHOLDER (and plenty of others that I'll probably actually bet rather than those two, but we'll get to that later).
The post position draw is tomorrow, Oct. 26, so I won't get too in-depth with my previews just yet. But given my level of excitement, I need to blow off some steam here, so what follows is a reverse 13-1 ranking of the races I'm most excited for:
#13 JUVENILE TURF: Listen, I watch a lot of horse racing. And the list of names on the pre-entries list is almost wholly unfamiliar to me. Some of the Euros making the trip over seem to be pretty good at first glance, but if this wasn't a Breeders' Cup race, I would think about not betting it at all.
#12 JUVENILE FILLIES TURF: This race at least has some recognizable "bigger" names in line to run against the strong Euro contingent. I'm still not too excited about betting a number of juveniles going long on the turf for the first or second time, but it's one of the better juvenile fillies turf renditions I can remember.
#11 TURF SPRINT: Don't get me wrong, I like some of the horses here, but this doesn't do much more for me than any other random G3 turf sprint across the nation on any other random Saturday. This was one of the most exciting races last year with BOBBY'S KITTEN storming from well back late to claim the title, but that was also on the downhill turf course at Santa Anita vs. a rather pedestrian 5.5 furlongs at Keeneland.
#10 F&M TURF: It's nice to see STEPHANIE'S KITTEN keep rolling along and all, and seeing her against the seemingly top-notch Euros that are coming will be nice, but the rest of the American contingent is like the rest of this division ... uninspiring.
#9 JUVENILE: Maybe NYQUIST will show us that we have an incredible Kentucky Derby candidate on our hands. But I doubt it given the pedigree, and none of these others juveniles have really shown me all that much just yet. I hope we do see something transcendent, however, and that's always the fun part of this race.
#8 F&M SPRINT: This race might turn out to be better than I'm giving it credit for right now, but JUDY THE BEAUTY on real dirt is pretty "meh," I'm yet to be convinced that CAVORTING is doing anything other than beating up on subpar 3-year-old sprinters, and ARTEMIS AGROTERA hasn't run in a year. The nice thing about this race is that I think I'll get good betting value on whoever I ultimately like, but I'm just not blown away by the quality of the field at all.
#7 TURF MILE: I will always call it the *TURF* Mile simply because I don't understand why nobody else does. Calling it simply THE MILE just seems weird to me, but maybe they do that because the only people that seemingly care about sending good horses to it are the rest of the world. The defending champ KARAKONTIE is back along with a bunch of other top-notch foreigners, but it's hard to get *too* excited about horses you haven't seen all year long. But I'm still plenty excited.
#6 JUVENILE FILLIES: I'm more excited for this race than I have been in a while given how incredible SONGBIRD has looked to date and then the lineage of RACHEL'S VALENTINA and how good she has looked to date. In fact, I'm probably unreasonably excited for this one, but so be it.
#5 DIRT MILE: A lot of serious horse racing people seem to like to disparage the Dirt Mile as being unworthy of Breeders' Cup designation. But these same people love the Met Mile. Go figure. Anyway, we'll wait to see exactly who ends up here given that some of the bigger name horses are cross-entered, but while LIAM'S MAP will be strongly favored to be the next GOLDENCENTS here, horses like VALID and MR Z and BRADESTER are likely to make him work early, so TAPITURE/RED VINE/BARBADOS could be interesting late. Should be a fun one.
#4 TURF: Most of this ranking is based on seeing what GOLDEN HORN can do. And then there's THE PIZZA MAN, one of the all-around coolest horses in training, so those two alone sort of almost make up for the absence of FLINTSHIRE, who chose to go to Japan instead of coming back to the Breeders' Cup. A lot of the other American horses are your run of the mill Saturday Grade 1 turf stake types, but they're all hard-trying types you have to respect.
#3 DISTAFF: I'm really glad BEHOLDER is running in the Classic for a lot of reasons, but the Distaff benefits from it almost as much as the Classic. With BEHOLDER, the Distaff is essentially a walkover. Without her, there are probably 10 horses with a very reasonable chance of winning. I see a lot of very good horses, but no great horses (UNTAPABLE can't be called great at this point, sorry). The pace scenario will be interesting. Can't wait.
#2 SPRINT: This is American racing, so the Sprint is always super-competitive and intriguing. PRIVATE ZONE running here and not the Dirt Mile seems like a mistake to me, but alas, we'll see how things go for him against the rest of the top-notch speed signed on. I'm really interested to see what happens with RUNHAPPY. Other than his ruinous start in the one-mile LeComte, he has repeatedly impressed the hell out of me, and so far his sprint efforts have stamped him as one of the most incredible speed horses I've ever seen. Even just those two facing off would be exciting, so I can't wait to see what happens with all the rest.
#1 CLASSIC: Well, duh. This is simply a stupendous running of the Classic. You've got the boy vs. girl AMERICAN PHAROAH-BEHOLDER story line, and that alone would make this race absolutely awesome. But then you toss in GLENEAGLES, a superlative miler in Europe. Stout closers like TONALIST and HONOR CODE. Great 3-year-olds in FROSTED and KEEN ICE. And, finally, a lightly-raced 4-year-old in SMOOTH ROLLER who could be the most talented horse in the field somehow. (I'm not mentioning EFFINEX and HARD ACES for a reason, although it's worth noting that EFFINEX beat TONALIST at this distance in their last try on a fast track!) Anyway, I have a million words to come on this race, but I'll tease it by saying that I see the winner coming from off the pace ...
All in all, I'd say I'm truly *excited* for six races, *looking forward* to three, and then sort of just *along for the ride* with the other four. Saturday is of course the best day with nine races of top-tier competition, but Friday notches two of the top five despite only having four races (unfortunately, it also has the bottom two). That's all for now -- volumes more on the way in the next few days!
Tuesday, June 2, 2015
The Pre-Post Draw 2015 Belmont Stakes Preview
Triple Crown fever is upon us.
As such, this will lack the pomp and circumstance that typically accompanies my previews. Let's just jump right in with an 8-1 reverse order of win likelihood:
8. FRAMMENTO: I will admit that I drank the Nick Zito Kool-Aid before the Derby. He was so high on him and said so many good things that I ignored the raw numbers and said that he actually had a reasonable shot. Well, no. Zito said he's a "true stayer," and based on how evenly he ran in the Derby, maybe that's true. But the idea that he could fall 14 lengths back and then come with a big run late here is just really hard to fathom. I don't even think I would use him in exotics at this point.
7. KEEN ICE: The pedigree is one of the better ones as he's by CURLIN out of an AWESOME AGAIN mare. And, given that, I would say you should use him at the bottom of your exotic plays. That said, there are plenty of horses that can run 1.5 miles ... but can he run fast enough to be competitive here? He's 1-for-8 lifetime, and given how poorly his type of late speed plays in races that are this long, it's hard to imagine him closing with aplomb to win no matter how fast they go early.
6. MUBTAAHIJ: Remains a total mystery to me. A very ho hum Derby that may have been impacted by a dead-ish rail, or maybe not. The positive way to look at him is to say that he needed a race in this country and some time to adjust before being ready to fire his best shot, and his distance pedigree looks great. The negative way to look at him is to say that the distance pedigree is inflated by most of those offspring running in longer races to begin with, and that the Derby showcased that all he really ever did overseas was beat up on inferior horses. Gun to my head, I think the performance of DORTMUND in the Preakness kind of threw out the idea that the rail was that bad a place to be on Derby day, and MUBTAAHIJ just isn't quite good enough at this level.
5. TALE OF VERVE: This horse, along with the previous two, could all be swapped depending on my mood, but ultimately I think there's more potential here. He has a similar solid pedigree; even though TALE OF EKATI has mostly thrown sprinting types, 2008-era Bob Wothe picked the eventual sixth-place Belmont finisher to win the Belmont in the pages of the Washington County Daily News given his own pedigree, so I think there's hope here. Additionally, he's flashed more early pace than KEEN ICE (and been faster in the mornings), had to go wide and check in the Preakness, and still made up 10 lengths on AMERICAN PHAROAH in the final mile or so of that race. Rosario knows Belmont very well, so that's another advantage here. Of the true longshots, this is definitely my preference.
4. MATERIALITY: Upsetting the apple cart again here a bit with my dim view of this one. He had a horrible start in the Derby that put him behind horses where he's never been before, and then he had to go wide as he picked off horses coming down the stretch, making up more than three lengths on the leaders to finish a solid sixth. As one of the lone horses to close at all in the Derby, that's noteworthy. The pedigree also looks very nice. But for whatever reason, I felt like the Preakness would have been a better shot for him, and I think the race dynamics don't work out so well for him here. He's probably the truest pace challenger for AP, so he sort of *has* to go early. AP and others might let another longer shot go on the lead if someone else went for it, but I don't see MATERIALITY getting free lunch if he looks like he might be all alone. From that pedigree perspective he does look great, but I think he's more likely to act as a sacrificial lamb than be the winner.
3. MADEFROMLUCKY: Huh? How is Pletcher's other horse ahead of MATERIALITY? Simple: I think he has every bit as good a shot at likely three times the price. In fact, I think it's more likely that MATERIALITY and AMERICAN PHAROAH burn each other out on the lead and MADEFROMLUCKY comes from in behind them to pick up the pieces than MATERIALITY somehow putting away AMERICAN PHAROAH and rolling on home to win. I also think, depending on the draw, that MADEFROMLUCKY gets the "Commissioner trip" from last year where the rest of the field lets a longer shot lope along on the lead and he takes them all the way. I don't think other horses will let MATERIALITY get away on the lead by himself, but they might let MADEFROMLUCKY go if things work out that way. Speed figure wise, his 99 fig in the last race was on par with what AP did in the Derby and Preakness, and other than a 107 from FROSTED in the Wood and a 105 from MATERIALITY in the Florida Derby (p.s. I don't buy that number for MATERIALITY at all), that's on par with their best performances, too. At 15-1(ish), MADEFROMLUCKY is the value play if you buy into his continual improvement with Pletcher's impeccable Belmont record.
2. AMERICAN PHAROAH: OK, stop scoffing. Throw away all of the hype and superlatives and I have some serious questions. 1) Can Victor Espinoza actually win at Belmont? He's 4/73 lifetime? Granted, numbers can say a lot things, and maybe of his 73 mounts, you would only expect him to win about 4 times. But ... that's unlikely given the quality of mounts a jockey of his caliber gets? Is it statistically significant either way? Probably not, but it's something to keep in mind. 2) Can AMERICAN PHAROAH run 1.5 miles on a dry track? Listen, if the track comes up sloppy, he might as well be 1/9 as he obviously loves the stuff. But on a fast track, I have serious questions about his pedigree getting him the distance. 3) Does Baffert know what he's doing? Not training him over the Belmont surface was officially due to the fact that he liked Churchill and didn't get sore running over it, so why run the risk that he wouldn't like Belmont and get sore? On its face, it actually makes a lot of sense to me. But others aren't so sure. Does this mean he actually *is* a bit sore? Will he show up and not be comfortable by race time? 4) Who did he beat in the Preakness? FIRING LINE hated the slop just as much as you would have expected him to. DORTMUND looked over the top and not totally comfortable. TALE OF VERVE, a horse still eligible for a N2L, ran second, narrowly beating out a G3 winner in DIVINING ROD. So, you know ... he didn't really beat anyone.
With all of that said, let's bring the hype back in. Baffert has been saying since before the Derby that this horse is "different," and all along the whispers about how he always knew AP was better than DORTMUND have been there. His workouts have continued to be absolutely amazing, and there are no whispers of weight loss like there were with CALIFORNIA CHROME last year. Just watching him run ... it's quite literally like he's floating or skipping or whatever you want to call it. He just barely seems to touch the ground. He's surely not the only horse in history to look that good, but he's the best mover I can remember seeing. I can't advocate betting him at what will likely be 3/5 or so, but I'll be there, and I would love to celebrate history. And yet ...
1. FROSTED: He had a generally horrible trip in the Derby, getting shuffled back early and then going impossibly wide turning for home, yet he only finished three lengths back of AP. He should relish the extra distance being by TAPIT out of a DEPUTY MINISTER mare, he ran well in a Belmont start last fall (i.e. he doesn't mind the track), he has a very strong Belmont-based rider in Rosario, a great trainer .. what's not to like? I think the "public" will knock him from being a "closer," but really, when you look at his form, that's not really the case. He was four lengths off the pace in the Wood — that's not exactly a deep closer's territory. The Derby doesn't really count for the same reason that we're not calling MATERIALITY a closer heading into this race. He has been working lights out. He's more rested than AP. His best speed figure is higher than AP's. And the Derby performance can be excused due to a) the trip and b) the possibility of a slight bounce after that Wood performance (he went from 107 to 96 in speed fig). On his best day, at least by the numbers, he has been better than AP. And given that he's had a month-long break and AP hasn't, along with all of the above ... I truly think he has a better chance of winning this race.
RECAP:
It feels a little bit silly to put FROSTED ahead of AMERICAN PHAROAH, but my ultimate rationale was this: If I put these two horses side by side in a blind comparison (Horse A vs. Horse B style), who would I take? And the answer is undoubtedly FROSTED. I just think he'll like the distance so much more than AP will, and there are so many fewer questions coming into the race, as well. He's not running his third race in five weeks, etc.
From a gambling perspective, all I can really advocate for is win bets on FROSTED and MADEFROMLUCKY, and maybe an exacta box with those two and MATERIALITY. In the long-term, I have little doubt that exotics with AP out of the tri are winners, but good luck filling those, and good luck winning.
Theoretically, my trifecta would be:
FROSTED-MADEFROMLUCKY-MATERIALITY with FROSTED-MADEFROMLUCKY-MATERIALITY with ALL
That's only an $18 bet, so maybe I will give that a shot. Even throwing AP into the second spot would be $27, so that's also reasonable. I would not put AP in the top spot because I can guarantee plenty of people are playing AP-ALL-ALL for $21 and hoping a few longshots come in for the scraps. You might "win" that bet and still lose money.
To review last year's payouts, the $1 exacta of 9-1 TONALIST over 27-1 COMMISSIONER paid $174, whereas the $0.50 trifecta of TONALIST-COMMISSIONER and 26-1 MEDAL COUNT was $1695.25. Of course, that was an 11-horse field — so the payouts should be more muted no matter what happens this year — but it seems like it's worth the extra bucks to play the trifecta than the exacta. The 10-cent super last year was $380,80 with CALIFORNIA CHROME in fourth and $572.85 with WICKED STRONG (you may remember that they dead heated).
So, OK, I will play that trifecta I suppose (that's called stream of conciousness bet structuring). Official plays:
WIN: $50 FROSTED
WIN: $50 MADEFROMLUCKY
TRIFECTA: $27 FROSTED-MADEFROMLUCKY-MATERIALITY with AMERICAN PHAROAH-FROSTED-MADEFROMLUCKY-MATERIALITY with ALL
Saturday, May 16, 2015
The 2015 Wothism Preakness Preview
 |
| The top three finishers in the Derby meet again in the Preakness. It only takes one horse (the Derby winner) to win one race (the Preakness) for a Triple Crown to be on the line in the Belmont Stakes. Can AMERICAN PHAROAH do it? |
"It only takes one horse (the Derby winner) to win one race (the Preakness) for a Triple Crown to be
on the line in the Belmont Stakes."
That's a paraphrased version of a great quote I read within the last week but whose source has now escaped me. And we're just one race away from AMERICAN PHAROAH being the horse with a chance to capture the first Triple Crown since AFFIRMED in 1978.
This year's Preakness field has shaped up to be extraordinary in some — four of the top five finishers from the Derby are running — and disappointing in others — the total field size is just eight, and the fourth- and sixth-place finishers (FROSTED and MATERIALITY, respectively) are not running. That's a shame because I think those two ran the best races of any horse not named AMERICAN PHAROAH and would have been prime upset candidates in this race.
With that said, you can't rationally evaluate the Preakness without taking a look at the Derby. So let's start there. (If you would prefer an audio preview, here's a link to a podcast with myself and noted experts Zach Trexler and Ed Ronsman: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bxd6tcpYiDOha1ZkX2tfalpkdkk/view?usp=sharing)
KENTUCKY DERBY RECAP
"They didn't even run a damn race."
Those were my words in the immediate aftermath of the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby. In retrospect, maybe the pace wasn't *that* slow — 47.34 isn't fast by any means in comparison to previous runnings of the Derby but it's not necessarily crawling when we're talking about going 1 1/4 miles — but the "merry go round" nature of the race certainly supported the notion that the front running horses benefited from the pace. On the other hand, you could argue that the three horses in front that stayed there were clearly the best horses in the race — and the off odds agreed — so there was no real evidence of pace or track bias after all.
Personally, I have to trust my gut and stick with my initial assessment that between the track (I believe every winner on the main track was less than three lengths off the lead at the half-mile pole) and the pace, horses coming from further back were severely disadvantaged. That's not to say that the eventual top-three finishers were necessarily lucky or didn't run good races or anything like that, but they were definitely not hurt by the way the track was playing in the way that some of the others were.
With that said, probably the biggest Derby disappointment was DORTMUND. He got away with those relatively soft fractions and still folded up his tent at the eighth pole. As they hit the second turn after 3/4 in 1:11.29, DORTMUND led FIRING LINE and AMERICAN PHAROAH, with CARPE DIEM fourth and DANZIG MOON fifth (note now that the only changes in finishing order were FROSTED running on late while covering a ton of ground wide in the turn for fourth and DORTMUND and AMERICAN PHAROAH swapping spots). By the time they hit the top of the stretch, the three were about on even terms, with FIRING LINE and AMERICAN PHAROAH definitely going better than DORTMUND.
And then the stretch run was on. DORTMUND never looked like a winner, but stayed on rather well. As has been well-documented by now, AMERICAN PHAROAH had to be whipped 32 times down the stretch, and it just generally seemed like both the horse and jockey were working a lot harder FIRING LINE and his human counterpart. A lot of that is surely to do with jockey style — Gary is just more of a smooth operator than Victor — but it's fair to question if that kind of beating (I don't necessarily mean that derisively, but it really was some serious stick work from Victor) would take more out of AMERICAN PHAROAH than it did FIRING LINE as we head into the Preakness only two weeks later.
FIRING LINE drifted out a bit late as AMERICAN PHAROAH came in just a bit, but even Gary noted that he was doing some acting work as he "steadied" FIRING LINE in deep stretch when he knew he wasn't going by the eventual winner.
After surviving the mad rush early and getting beat around a bit, DANZIG MOON settled pretty nicely and ran the most even race ever. In my eyes, he took fifth almost by default as no other horses were able to close into the pace on that track.
I'll get into some more horse-by-horse specifics below as I detail the chances of the field. But first ...
OVERALL PREAKNESS FEELINGS
This race reeks of the 2012 edition. That's not a bad thing in terms of race quality — the 2012 edition was an absolute thriller (seriously, click here and go watch right now (note: somehow finding an HD version of this race is impossible)), but that makes it a pretty weak betting race. The 2012 Preakness was a rematch of I'LL HAVE ANOTHER and BODEMEISTER, with CREATIVE CAUSE the fifth-place Derby finisher. They ultimately finished in that order 1-2-3 in the Preakness, and it's really tough to see anything else happening in this year's Preakness. DIVINING ROD or DANZIG MOON could maybe fill out the bottom of the trifecta if one of the big three doesn't fire, but any other result seems nearly impossible to fathom. The Preakness almost always plays very true to form — the best horse usually does win (unlike the Derby, which is often won by the horse that gets the best trip). OK, here goes:
WHY BOTHER?
8. BODHISATTVA: He grabbed an easy lead in his last race, a $100k stake at Pimlico, walked through fractions of :49 and 1:13 3/5, and won by 1.5 lengths against weak competition. The last time he raced in graded competition, he went off at odds of 114-1 in the Grade 2 Remsen last November, and ultimately ran fifth, beaten 11 lengths. He may well have improved some since then, but he flattened out when he went 1 1/8 miles two starts back despite getting a nice pace to close into, and there's simply not a lot here to get excited about. He is the hometown hopeful, but there's not much hope to go around here.
7. MR Z: I am tickled by the way this all played out. For the past week or so, or at least for the past few days, D. Wayne Lukas has been adamant that MR Z would be running in the Preakness. Meanwhile, owner Ahmed Zayat seemed exasperated on Twitter, repeatedly saying HE WILL NOT RUN. Suddenly, earlier today (Wednesday, May 13), news broke that MR Z would be sold to Calumet Farm and that he *will* run in the Preakness. The lesson: Never doubt Coach Lukas. MR Z had a miserable Derby trip and actually ran on fairly well in the end to finish 13th of 18 horses. Lukas calls the race a throw out and says he has MR Z as good as he's ever been. Which, you know, is fine ... but I ranked him 19/19 in the Derby, and only put him at No. 7 here in the very, very unlikely case that Lukas is right (someone said "Lukas doesn't kidnap horses for the hell of it, you know") and MR Z uses the speed-favoring Pimlico strip to his advantage and runs back to his Los Alamitos performance from last year when he was nip and tuck with DORTMUND and FIRING LINE to the wire.
6. TALE OF VERVE: The case for him, I suppose, is that he won a race at Keeneland going 1 3/16 miles while closing into a very slow early pace despite being six lengths back. And that late kick was good enough to give him a 114 late pace figure, which is rivaled only by AMERICAN PHAROAH's 109 in the Rebel earlier this year. So what happens if get gets a faster pace to run into? Will he close even more strongly and make up even more ground? No, for three reason: 1. When a race is as slow as TALE OF VERVE's maiden breaking win was (they went the first 3/4 miles in 1:14 2/5), every horse in the race will have a mammoth late pace figure because they all have plenty of energy left. 2. While 114 is impressive no matter the early pace, he won solely because of the competition he faced — he was a 3/5 favorite in a six-horse field that got a race rating of 109 (by comparison, the Derby's race rating was 119). 3. Pimlico is a speed-favoring track. You just don't close successfully from that far back, not against these kinds of horses. So why run him? My guess is that it's because this horse was a $440,000 purchase last April and the owner is hoping against hope that his purchase can be somewhat justified. Good luck, Mr. Fipke.
THE MILDLY LESS HOPELESS
5. DANZIG MOON: I kind of summed up my thoughts on DANZIG MOON earlier, and I will copy and paste them here: "After surviving the mad rush early and getting beat around a bit, DANZIG MOON settled pretty nicely and ran the most even race ever. In my eyes, he took fifth almost by default as no other horses were able to close into the pace on that track." He was never sniffing even DORTMUND, who of course looked weary late as the two others ran by him. Despite the early action in the Derby, he was still more forwardly placed than he had been in any other start sans his maiden win, which by the way is still the only time he crossed the wire first. In this field, he sets up as being further back, and I really have to say that they should have awaited the Belmont, where his completely one-paced style and nice distance pedigree would have played pretty well. At the Preakness, I'll be quite surprised if he runs any better than third.
THE "WISE GUY" CHOICE
4. DIVINING ROD: He's the only horse in the race with anything close to the talent of the Derby runners, plus he's fresh, which puts him clearly ahead of DANZIG MOON. He looked like a real talent in winning the Lexington in dominating fashion, and let's not forget that he only lost the Tampa Bay Derby by a neck. But he got the quintessential perfect trip in the Lexington, and after that Tampa performance, he went on to finish 7.5 lengths back of CARPE DIEM in the Tampa Bay Derby. So you can play both sides here. What I like about him is that he showed the versatility to sit off the pace and inside of horses in the Lexington; even though the trip was perfect, he still was able to settle. The fun scenario for his backers is that the top three go too fast while being pressured by the likes of MR Z and BODHISATTVA (who I honestly doubt is quick enough to put real pressure on, but the connections may deem that suicide mission their best chance to win), and he settles in 2-3 lengths off the pace and has first run on the likes of DANZIG MOON. Even with that said, it's hard to envision him being good enough to win, but I think he'll get some solid support. One interesting subplot here is that Julien Leparoux — who rode DIVINING ROD in the Lexington and DANZIG MOON in the Derby — will stick with DANZIG MOON. Some might read that as Leparoux thinking DANZIG MOON is the superior horse, but I mostly read it as Leparoux sticking with a trainer (Casse) who gives him more business. Additionally, DIVINING ROD gets Castellano aboard, who I think is miles better, anyway.
THE DERBY TRIFECTA
3. FIRING LINE: The case for FIRING LINE is relatively simple in my mind, and it goes something like this: DORTMUND is a tired horse who didn't have an excuse for stopping like he did in the Kentucky Derby. He's "over the top" (to borrow some horse parlance) and needs a break to regain his best form. As I noted earlier, AMERICAN PHAROAH got hit 32 times in the stretch of the Derby — after barely, if ever, getting whipped in previous races — and it's fair to think that might have taken some starch out of him. FIRING LINE, on the other hand, had 40 days of rest before the Derby, and should be the freshest horse of the three. And staying the 1 1/4 miles like he did with that kind of rest between races bodes well for his second race back. Gosh, I have to say — I've almost talked myself into him! And Gary Stevens said he's learned a lot about him in riding him the past three races now ... very interesting. And -- AND -- he also never switched leads down the entire stretch, which some would say that, had he done, he would have won (others would say that it's a sign of a physical problem or extreme fatigue, but I digress). So what's the case against him? Simply that I don't think he's quite as good as the two above him. DORTMUND beat him twice and AMERICAN PHAROAH of course beat him last time. Betting on FIRING LINE to win, in my opinion, is betting that neither of those horses are at their best. And, you know, maybe that's true. But Baffert has no reason to run DORTMUND if he's not 100 percent — why put your chances of a Triple Crown at risk? — and AMERICAN PHAROAH appears no worse for the wear by all accounts. Another subplot here that is in my mind is that Gary Stevens won the Preakness on OXBOW in 2013 by walking the dog on the front end, and FIRING LINE has never been more than a head off the early pace in his last four starts. If DORTMUND doesn't break well or switches tactics in the smaller field, is he on the lead? Is he the one fending off early challenges from the longer shots? Is he the one potentially softening up a rating AMERICAN PHAROAH? The post position for FIRING LINE out at No. 8 certainly helps him as he can make his own race whereas AMERICAN PHAROAH and DORTMUND sort of have to go from down there, but in the end, there are too many questions at what I would guess will be the second choice price.
2. DORTMUND: So what happened? While I ultimately bet FROSTED to win most heavily, DORTMUND was the most likely winner in my mind. and when he got away with the fractions he did, it looked even better. But when FIRING LINE and AMERICAN PHAROAH made their moves, DORTMUND was empty-ish. He couldn't stick with them, but at the same time, he didn't throw in the towel. So did the track carry him home? Usually when you see a frontrunner throw in the towel at the top of the stretch, they throw it in completely and finish further back in the pack. And make no mistake, DORTMUND has run faster in past races and still finished more strongly, no matter which metric you use — his Santa Anita Derby was his best race speed figure wise, when he posted a 106 after fractions of :46 1/5, 1:10 2/5, and 1:35 3/5. Now, to be fair, I wondered aloud in my Derby preview if he might have trouble with the final quarter mile ... and maybe he did. But he was already third by the time they hit the stretch, and this was after fractions of :47 1/5, 1:11 1/5, and 1:36 2/5. Nearly a second slower at all calls, but instead of coming home in 13 seconds like he did in the Santa Anita Derby, Was the rail dead? MUBTAAHIJ and CARPE DIEM both had nice rail trips and backed up in a big way. DORTMUND galloped out past FIRING LINE and AMERICAN PHAROAH, which sort of runs counter to the idea that he ran out of gas, too. And then there's the noise at the Derby, which is surely unlike anything he's ever heard before, and the fact that he doesn't run with ear plugs, but wears them before the race. Also that he needed to get saddled in the tunnel as opposed to a stall. And look — it's easy to look at all of this stuff and say, "It sounds like excuse after excuse, Bob." And it is. The easy thing to do is to toss him. That's why I believe that he'll offer some nice value on a track that will play more to his strengths, and in post No. 2, he might get a sweet rating trip while hanging FIRING LINE wide.
1. AMERICAN PHAROAH: I thought about being cheeky and putting DORTMUND on top again, but that would just be kind of silly at this point. There's no doubt which horse should be the favorite, and in a race that is typically won by the best horse, AMERICAN PHAROAH should win the Preakness. He covered a lot more ground than the horses that ran behind him (29 more feet than FIRING LINE and 69 more feet than DORTMUND), and even if the outside was a better part of the track, that's significant. He also actually put away FIRING LINE late as opposed to just barely holding on; it's hard to watch the race and say that you think FIRING LINE was ever going past him. The post position draw added some intrigue to the race because if he happens to not get off to a great start, he'll have to work his way out to the clear ... but on the other hand, it reminds me very much of the Santa Anita Derby where DORTMUND broke from post No. 1 and ONE LUCKY DANE effectively operated as a force field, floating any other challengers pretty wide and giving DORTMUND the run of the race. I'm not saying that DORTMUND will function only in that capacity here, but he's certainly not going to purposefully shut the door on AMERICAN PHAROAH. What hurts the most is the presence of MR Z in post No. 3. I expect him to be going for the lead, and if he gets off to a better start, we know he has some serious speed, and we know Lukas really wants to run him ... so I don't think he's just laying back, and he could pose some problems for the big two here if he gets in front of them. But at the end of the day, he's just clearly the best horse. He has the speed to go to the lead, and I think he will, and I don't think they'll catch him. If you can get even money, that's a hand over first bet.
WAGERING THOUGHTS
Overall, don't get too cute here. As I mentioned earlier, this is extremely reminiscent of the 2012 running, and I actually hit the superfecta in that race. I'LL HAVE ANOTHER won at odds of 5-2, beating BODEMEISTER at odds of 8-5, CREATIVE CAUSE at odds of 6-1, and ZETTERHOLM at odds of 20-1. I boxed the big three with three others in a superfecta and hoped for some weird things to happen. The cost of the box was $36. The bet returned $42.40.
So yeah, don't get too cute chasing a big payout here, because it's not happening unless things go completely crazy. If, say, BODHISATTVA beats MR Z and TALE OF VERVE fills out the trifecta, yes, that will pay roughly $1 million USD. And maybe such a result is technically an overlay ... but it's the sort of overlay that you could bet a million times and never realize. If you're the sort that plays the lottery (I am not), then boxing up DANZIG MOON-TALE OF VERVE-BODHISSATVA-MR Z in a trifecta for $12 is probably some nice entertainment if you're OK with never seeing that money again. But I wouldn't bother trying to figure out who's going to run 3rd or 4th behind a couple of the big three here — that's what everyone else is doing, and it's not going to pay a thing. Horses like TALE OF VERVE in the third spot will be massive underlays in relation to their actual probability of finishing there.
At the end of the day, I think this is just simply a race where you roll old school and plop down a nice win bet on whichever of the three you think offers the most value. I think one of these three horses wins about 95% of the time, so you need some serious odds on the rest of the field to consider any of them for the top spot. And it's a Triple Crown race, so you get some more "public" money than you do normally, which means that you have people betting simply because they like the name, or the color, etc.
With all of that said, I'll play this one pretty straight. I might play some multi-race wagers heading into the Preakness, but the race itself will be pretty boring. If I can get the below odds or better at post time, I will bet the horse in question:
AMERICAN PHAROAH 1/1
DORTMUND 5/2
FIRING LINE 5/1
What this likely adds up to is simply a bet on DORTMUND, and me nervously watching to see if his last race was a fluke or a sign of true regression. Should be fun!
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