2025 Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) (Race 8)
This is the $5,000,000 Longines Breeders' Cup Turf (G1), featuring a large international field set to go 1 1/2 miles on the turf. The model has identified a heavy favorite as a poor value bet and finds positive edges on seven other horses, including one "insanity insurance" play.
The Most Likely Winners (But Bad Bets)
#8 Minnie Hauk (Projected Odds: 1.9/1)
The model's most likely winner with a 30% Win Probability. She is a European superstar, a 3-year-old filly who won the G1 Epsom Oaks, G1 Irish Oaks, and G1 Yorkshire Oaks in succession. She was just beaten by a head in the G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. Despite her credentials, the model finds a -40.71% negative edge, making her a terrible value at her short price.
#1 Rebel's Romance (Projected Odds: 4/1)
The model's second-most-likely winner (25% Win Prob) and a globetrotting veteran. He is attempting to become the first horse to win the Breeders' Cup Turf three times. He won the G1 Grosser Preis von Berlin this year and the G1 Turf Classic last out. His trainer reports he is in "great form" and "pitch perfect". The model finds a slight +3.43% positive edge, making him a key play.
The Best Value Bets
With the favorite being a poor value, the win budget is spread across the seven positive-edge horses.
Top Value: #1 Rebel's Romance (Projected Odds: 4/1)
He is the only horse to be both a top-two win probability and a positive edge. This makes him the cornerstone of the betting plan.
#7 Silawi (Projected Odds: 31.8/1)
This horse shows the model's second-best edge at +43.22%. He is a G1 winner, having just won the G1 Canadian International at Woodbine in his last start.
#10 El Cordobes (Projected Odds: 31.8/1)
A strong value play with a +18.80% positive edge. He is a G1 winner, having captured the Sword Dancer Stakes at Saratoga this summer, earning a "Win and You're In" berth. He finished 3rd, just behind #1 Rebel's Romance, in the Turf Classic.
#14 Ethical Diamond (Projected Odds: 24.3/1)
A solid value with a +7.29% positive edge. This horse is trained by the legendary Willie Mullins. He comes in off back-to-back wins in two of Europe's biggest handicaps: the Duke of Edinburgh at Royal Ascot and the Ebor Handicap at York.
Other Positive Edge Horses: The model also finds smaller edges on #13 Hill Road (+6.86%), #12 Tawny Port (+1.08%), and #11 Rashabar (+0.67%).
Recommended Betting Plan (Race 8)
"Insanity Insurance" Bet:
The model shows an extreme +64.41% edge on #3 Amiloc. This indicates the model is likely missing a key piece of data; for instance, he is facing G1 company after a 2nd place finish in the G1 Irish St Leger. Per our rules, this horse receives a minimum bet and is excluded from all other wagers.
$2.00 Win on #3 Amiloc
Total Win Spend: $74.00
| Horse | Bet Amount |
| #1 Rebel's Romance | $42.00 Win |
| #10 El Cordobes | $12.00 Win |
| #14 Ethical Diamond | $10.00 Win |
| #7 Silawi | $4.00 Win |
| #11 Rashabar | $2.00 Win |
| #12 Tawny Port | $2.00 Win |
| #13 Hill Road | $2.00 Win |
Total Exacta Spend: $23.00
(Based on proportional scaling of the model's exacta BET SIZER values, rounded to the nearest dollar. #3 Amiloc is excluded.)
| Amount | Type | Selections | Total Cost |
| $13.00 | Exacta | 1 / 2 | $13.00 |
| $3.00 | Exacta | 1 / 8 | $3.00 |
| $3.00 | Exacta | 1 / 14 | $3.00 |
| $1.00 | Exacta | 14 / 2 | $1.00 |
| $1.00 | Exacta | 10 / 2 | $1.00 |
| $1.00 | Exacta | 14 / 4 | $1.00 |
| $1.00 | Exacta | 2 / 4 | $1.00 |
