2013 Breeders' Cup Friday

It's finally here — the best two days of racing all year.

CLOSE HATCHES is my pick to
upset the Breeders' Cup Distaff.

This will be plenty long as it is, so there's no need to get too lengthy in the preamble. For previous writings about this year's Breeders' Cup, click here and here. Here's my breakdown of the five Breeders' Cup races on Friday:

Marathon: I see a good deal of speed in this race. After taking a closer look, I'm pretty much ready to dismiss my initial thought of OLD TIME HOCKEY in this one. Between exiting a turf race and nothing a lifetime top in that turf race, I just don't know that he's worth the risk. COMMANDER is my top early speed selection, but I think he'll have plenty of company up top. WORLDY is my overall top pick due to his recent performances and getting beaten by FORT LARNED, PRAYER FOR RELIEF and GOLDEN TICKET in his last three. I really don't like POOL PLAY, INDIAN JONES or CEASE. BLUESKIESNRAINBOWS is sort of interesting, and I really have no idea what to make of LONDON BRIDGE or EVER RIDER. Yeah, so ... I am really just grasping at straws here. It's completely inscrutable. When you ask a random allotment of horses to run further than they ever have on a surface they may not be familiar with, how do you predict what happens?!? I'm tempted to try a WORLDLY-EVER RIDER-COMMANDER-SUNS OUT GUNS OUT-BLUESKIESNRAINBOWS superfecta, but then I think about POOL PLAY and INDIAN JONES coming late and getting a piece ... and, really, forget getting cute or betting this one too hard.

THE PLAY: $4 to win/place/show on WORDLY (insanely light, but really, I just don't have much of a feeling on this!) I'll also play a $1 exacta box of WORDLY, COMMANDER, SUNS OUT GUNS OUT and EVER RIDER. Why not. Total bet: $24

Juvenile Turf: This race, on the other hand, looks pretty slow to me on the front end. In other words, I think it will be run very much like a European turf race, which I think clearly favors the Euros -- as if they weren't already fairly clearly better. GIOVANI BOLDINI looks quite dangerous here, as does OUTSTRIP. Gun to my head, I would take OUTSTRIP of these two -- but narrowly. Due to the pace dynamic, BOBBY'S KITTEN may just obliterate this field. He was right on a blistering pace in the G3 Pilgrim, but that was no worry ... he just kept right on going, and I don't think the cutback in distance will hurt him any. I don't know that BON ACCORD will necessarily win, but I do like him to run better than what many might expect. He has only been on the turf once, a win at 5 furlongs in the Calder Dash at odds of 46-1. He's 20-1 on the morning line and could spice up my exotics.

THE PLAY: $1 Exacta and $.50 trifecta box with BOBBY'S KITTEN-BON ACCORD-OUTSTRIP-GIOVANI BOLDINI ($12 and $12); $4 Win-place-show on BON ACCORD. Total bet: $36

Dirt Mile: I think the pace here will be quite fast, although perhaps not quite blistering, whereas he has it between moderate and soft, while his late speed rating average is only "fair." I mentioned in an earlier thoughts post that I think this race is fantastic, and after running my numbers on it, I have not changed my position on that whatsoever. I'm comfortable throwing out the following right away: ALPHA (hasn't won without a slow pace and/or sloppy track), CENTRALINTELIGENCE (not sure why he would choose this race instead of the sprint; mile seems too far for him), FED BIZ (hasn't been good enough at this level), HOLY LUTE (stepping up too far in class).

But I really should come at this race first from a different perspective. VERRAZANO is an absolute standout when I laid out all of the numbers. He has both the best early and sustained pace, and he's my clear-cut winner. 

The worry, of course, is that they go too fast up front, so that's why I'm going to look a little bit deeper. PANTS ON FIRE and GOLDENCENTS both have shown the capability of coming from a bit off the pace, and GOLDEN TICKET is my top late running horse. I was actually pretty surprised at this, but I can make a much better case for him than HYMN BOOK. 

The horses I'm really struggling with are: BROADWAY EMPIRE, BRUJO DE OLLEROS and TAPTOWNE. I'm pretty comfortable tossing BROADWAY EMPIRE and TAPTOWNE overall -- I think they're the speed of the speed, and it would really take a herculean effort to go as fast as I think they will and still hold on since they're both taking steps up in class. That said, TAPTOWNE has run triple-digit figures in 6 of his last 8 starts and always seems to hang around for a piece. BRUJO DE OLLEROS is the most difficult because he really hasn't had a suitable running line to compare against the likely pace dynamic of this race. I don't think he can win, but he can certainly run into the exotics.

THE PLAY: $10 VERRAZANO to win/place/show ($30); exacta/trifecta box VERRAZANO-GOLDENCENTS-PANTS ON FIRE-GOLDEN TICKET ($12 and $12); those four on top and boxed below with TAPTOWNE and BRUJO DE OLLEROS in a superfecta ($12 24 ). 

(UPDATE: TAPTOWNE has scratched, so just including BRUJO DE OLLEROS in that super for a $12 bet. Total bet: $66)

Juvenile Fillies Turf: This just smells like another absolute blanket finish with the strongest late kick winning. That smells like another recipe for a Euro to win if you ask me, although I wouldn't ignore a frontrunner getting loose and holding on if I can find one.

And guess what? I did. I found two, actually -- NESSO and READY TO ACT. NESSO has set fairly quick paces in her last two starts yet has held on for second-place finishes to CLENOR. If she doesn't have to run so fast this time, I like her chances. Then there's READY TO ACT, who I think will be a good price after bolting in her last and dumping her rider while two lengths in front in the stretch. 

The Euros are almost impossible for me to separate. AL THAKIRA seems like an open book -- she has won 2-of-2, with one of those field being very high quality, but who knows. CHRISELLIAM won her last at a higher class than any American by far. I'd rather have her than VORDA, who has never run a full mile, but she seems really tough, too. 

TESTA ROSSI is the one American closer (former Euro herself) that I like because she closed strongly into a slow pace to win her last. 

THE PLAY: $1 Exacta box NESSO-READY TO ACT-AL THAKIRA-CHRISELLIAM-VORDA-TESTA ROSSI (seems kind of silly to box up six horses in the exacta, but I don't really want to leave any of them out, and the costs of some of the other exotics get prohibitive with that many horses). Total bet: $30

Distaff:  It's pretty clear right off the bat that STREET GIRL is extremely outclassed, and she has never run beyond 1 1/16 miles. But I can almost make a case for her -- only beaten two lengths in the Cotillion after stumbling at the start and only beaten 1 3/4 lengths in the Ballerina despite a slow pace. She hasn't ever ran a better speed figure than 96 on a fast track, and that's just about the equivalent of ROYAL DELTA's worst race, ever. STREET GIRL will not win, but I do think she may close into a slow pace and get a piece.

AUTHENTICITY seems to be getting some talk as a darkhorse in this one, but I don't really see it. She has been soundly defeated by BEHOLDER and ROYAL DELTA in her last two starts without any real excuse -- she sat right off of each and just couldn't produce the required run to go by in the stretch. 

BEHOLDER has run huge in the past, and is 5-of-6 at Santa Anita. But she really hasn't beaten anyone beyond AUTHENTICITY, and when she has been pressed to fractions above the par, she's only batting 1-for-3. I don't know what kind of odds she'll go off at, but they'll be too low for me to consider.

PRINCESS OF SYLMAR has the look of a horse that should have taken the rest of the year off as originally planned. After winning the Beldame, that's what everyone assumed was in store ... but then the connections changed course and decided to run her after all. What's interesting with her is that she has this perception of being well off the pace, but really she has been within four lengths at the first call in every race but the Oaks, and within 2.5 lengths at the second call in every race but her debut. That's not necessarily bad, but food for thought when you consider her being close to a fast, fast pace. What really has me against her here is just the intent -- she already looked "over the top" in the Beldame based on a 99 speed fig, and I just wonder if she really wants another race against these. I'll bet against at a low prices as one of the "big three."

If I had to bet one of the favorites, ROYAL DELTA would be it. At her best, she'll blow this field away. If she's anywhere near even money, I'll bet on her to win-place-show. She's just the best there is.

But the horse nobody is talking about is her barnmate CLOSE HATCHES. She beat PRINCESS OF SYLMAR at this distance back in April, and after poor showings in the Kentucky Oaks and Acorn, she bounced back to dominate the Mother Goose and Cotillion. The speed figs are unremarkable, but with five wins and a second in seven starts, she should be primed for a big step up in her second off a layoff in the fall of her 3-year-old year. She likes to sit just a bit off the pace, too, so she may be in that proverbial garden spot. 

The final piece is the trainer intent. Two trainers have two horses in this race -- Todd Pletcher has PRINCESS OF SYLMAR and AUTHENTICITY, while Bill Mott has CLOSE HATCHES and ROYAL DELTA. For everything I just said about ROYAL DELTA possibly not being fully cranked in her last race, I don't think Mott would run CLOSE HATCHES here if he didn't think she had a real shot. And, likewise, I don't think Pletcher would necessarily run AUTHENTICITY if he thought there was no chance she would beat PRINCESS OF SYLMAR. So, I think there's real reason to be skeptical of the chances of the two best horses in here, and I like CLOSE HATCHES better than AUTHENTICITY -- I just think the ceiling is higher.

And she'll be a good price.

THE PLAY: $10 CLOSE HATCHES to win-place-show, $2 wheel CLOSE HATCHES with the field in the exacta ($20) and $.50 trifecta wheel ($30). Total bet: $80