2014 WOTHISM BC TURF PREVIEW

PACE OUTLOOK: The pace should be slow, and that might be the only hope the American have — that a horse like IMAGINING can pull a coup like LITTLE MIKE a few years back. On the other hand, the Europeans are used to slowly run races and then powering home, so I would almost say the pace doesn't matter here.

GENERAL OUTLOOK: It's all about the Euros: current Euros and former Euros. The defection of MAGICIAN sucks, but it doesn't change the fact that anything other than a win from a European or former European MAIN SEQUENCE would be a shocker. Throw in the European style of training that HARDEST CORE gets and it seems any true American horse is juuuust about hopeless.

1. Telescope (Moore/Stoute) 4-1: If Ryan Moore doesn't get him stopped, it's between him and FLINTSHIRE. These two are just head and shoulders above all others.

2. Twilight Eclipse (Castellano/Albertrani) 12-1: Less than a length back in his last three races, but always to MAIN SEQUENCE and once to IMAGINING. I think he'll be a better bet at the likely odds than MAIN SEQUENCE, but I'd still rather bet ...

3. Imagining (Rosario/McGaughey) 12-1: I said it before — the best American hope is for IMAGINING to get away on the lead, relax, and have enough left to hold off the onslaught at the end.

4. Brown Panther (Kingscote/Dascombe) 8-1: This race actually feels too short for him. I question whether he has the requisite kick at this distance, and I also don't like how he was redirected here after his late scratch at Woodbine two weekends ago.

5. Hangover Kid (Lezcano/Servis) 30-1: No way.

6. Finnegans Wake (Talamo/Miller) 30-1: The absolute best race of his life might put him in the superfecta. That's about it.

7. Flintshire (Guyon/Fabre) 7-2: He has three seconds in four races in 2014. They have been by 2 lengths to TREVE, 1.5 lengths to RULER OF THE WORLD, and 2 lengths to CIRRUS DES AIGLES. These are all *fantastic* horses. The only reason for pause is that his last race was the Arc de Triomphe, and the Breeders' Cup Turf is very much an afterthought compared to that $6.2 million race. So if he was fully cranked for that one, ran his heart out to be second, then had to fly to California four weeks later ... hmm.

9. Hardest Core (Vaz/Graham) 10-1: Just a fascinating horse but one that, in my estimation, got really lucky that nobody else showed up in the Arlington Million. He has a track record of success going long-ish on the grass, but his wins in races at 1 1/4 miles or longer have been aided by being on a slow pace. That could happen again here, no doubt, but he'd have to be a much bigger price.

10. Star Spangled Heat (Nakatani/Abrams) 30-1: If this horse wins, I will demand the immediate inspection of his bloodstream.

11. Chicquita (Dettori/O'Brien) 8-1: This filly sold for $8 million last November. Yes, $8 million. She then didn't run until Sept. 14, finishing a close 2nd in a Group 2 for females. Then she was a well-beaten 15th in the Arc on Oct. 5. And then, most recently, she was 3rd on Oct. 18. This will be her third race in four weeks and her fourth race in seven weeks. On the plus side, she won the Group 1 Irish Oaks in July 2013. There are just far too many questions with this one at a somewhat short price.

12. Main Sequence (Velasquez/Motion) 6-1: Undefeated in America this year, BROWN PANTHER defeated him by 13 lengths last summer, and he was defeated by the same margin in his last start in Europe last fall. Additionally, he's been winning by narrow margins here, so it's not as if he's head and shoulders the best. This is perhaps the worst horse to bet in the field.

13. Big John B (Smith/D'Amato) 20-1: Left himself way too much to do last time and was running in a $40k claimer as recently as May. Nope.

SUMMARY: I primarily like TELESCOPE because it feels like he's been pointed to this race rather than just tossed in as an afterthought like FLINTSHIRE. I could see including IMAGINING in exotics with these two with the hope that he gets brave on the lead.