Arlington Park race 6: LIZ PENDENS looks like a threat as the lone legit speed, but she absolutely appears to need the lead and she may not get it with SOME TEMPER breaking from the rail. MY OPTION has the most class in the field, has won her only try on grass (back in October of last year), and likely wins if she runs back to her G3 triumph in the Arlington Oaks on polytrack. But who knows? I find it curious that she hasn't run on grass more than once, so that seems to tell me that her trainer thinks she's better on the poly. She may very well be good enough regardless, but at a short price, I'll pass. BOLD KITTEN is similar in that she has only run on the turf once, but I think she has a better turf pedigree and I would prefer her at a slightly longer price. Still, she'll be the second choice and not a great price for a horse with questions. I'M ALREADY SEXY is probably the most proven play, and she appears razor sharp after a 46.8 second work at Arlington on Tuesday. She has put up very strong speed figures on the turf time and time again and lost her last start by just half a length despite being checked badly in the first turn. She's the third choice on the morning line but likely the best value. I think BELLE CHAUSSEE is an intriguing longshot. After two unsuccessful tries against older horses this year, she gets a new trainer and a try against only her peers. Neither of those races were good trips, either, and she still ran respectably. I give her a good shot here.
Arlington Park race 7: The American St. Leger is a bizarre race at 1 11/16 miles. WIGMORE HALL could certainly win, but I think he would prefer softer ground and didn't run particularly well in the Million last year on his first start after shipping from England. All DARK COVE has done this year is won at 1.5 miles on the turf. He has won three straight and at 3/1 offers a modicum of value here. IOYA BIGTIME figures to contend but hasn't won since last September and appears outclassed here. He has been beaten by DARK COVE by at least eight lengths in those past three races. SUNTRACER was coming at DARK COVE late in the last race and only lost by 1.75 lengths, but he only wins when presented with a really fast pace to close into, and I don't see the pace being too hot in this one. NAJJAAR is winless in six starts on turf but should absolutely love the distance -- he put up a 110 speed figure in his only 1.5 mile start and this race will be his second off the layoff. He has worked lights out on turf recently and I think offers the best value among horses with established American form. This race likely comes down to how good DANDINO is, a shipper who was second in the G2 Hardwicke at Ascot last out. He ran pretty huge in a second at Woodbine last fall (111 speed fig), but in the past year he has now been from England to Canada to Hong Kong to England to Chicago. And as good as his form looks, he has won just once in his last 10 starts, and that wasn't on turf. I'm comfortable taking a shot with NAJJAAR here. UPDATE: DARK COVE scratched, which is probably best for my NAJJAAR wager as I thought DARK COVE had a real shot at going all the way on the lead. IOYA BIGTIME probably becomes more of a threat without DARK COVE to battle with on the front end.
Arlington Park race 8: I might be more excited for this race than the Million. The general impression of this race seems to be that it's wide open, but I'm not sure I subscribe to that notion. None of the Euros jump out enough for me to seriously consider them, and there are some clearly outclassed horses here, as well. JACK MILTON will likely be the post time favorite, but I think he'll have value. I like RYDILLUC somewhat as I think the pace will be relatively soft, but I really think 1 1/4 miles is too far for him. I also think ADMIRAL KITTEN would prefer shorter and won't get the pace he would be best closing into. STORMY LEN's only non-maiden win came at the head of a very slow race, and he won't get that with RYDILLUC in the field. DRAW TWO appears to be a different horse on softer going, but he won't get that and looks like a big underlay to me at 6/1. JACK MILTON just seems by far the best any way you measure it -- his third last time should have been a win if not for traffic issues, and Rosario is in for the ride. If I was trying to beat JACK MILTON, I would go with either TATTENHAM or AMEN KITTEN. AMEN KITTEN was only beaten by 4.25 lengths by JACK MILTON in April at Keeneland and he always seems to show up -- he hasn't been beaten by more than five lengths in any of his last five starts. The biggest knock for him is that his best performances have come, as you would expect, against stronger paces, and that's unlikely in this one. TATTENHAM is probably more defensible as he comes in off a narrow second against older horses going 1 1 1/4 miles. Of note is that he was beaten by HANGOVER KID two starts back, a horse that finished third in the G1 United Nations and won his last start Thursday against stakes company. I still think JACK MILTON is the standout here, but if he drifts down in price rather than up, I will be tempted to play against him.
Arlington Park race 9: MARKETING MIX is the clear draw and favorite in the Beverly D, but her last effort was huge and I wouldn't be all that surprised if she bounces a bit. STARFORMER has run well with any pace, and she's working lights out for Bill Mott recently and I don't take him shipping her in to face MARKETING MIX lightly. He's pretty conservative when he places horses and he doesn't run unless he thinks he has a real shot. Of the Euros, I prefer DANK over DUNTLE because she has exhibited more success going longer. At a mile, I would take DUNTLE, but at 1 3/16, it's DANK out of that group. Still, STARFORMER would be my play here as the likely fourth or fifth choice.
Arlington Park race 10: Who knows. And I say that because I really don't know what will happen up front. Dale Romans says he wants LITTLE MIKE to be on the lead, but he's going to have to absolutely go nuts to beat NATES MINESHAFT to it. If he does, neither horse has any chance. Actually, NATES MINESHAFT has no chance regardless, but I think those two will battle to some extent and create a quicker than average pace. A lot of people are giving INDY POINT a lot of love and he's undoubtedly the wise guy horse, but I think he's going to be pretty close to this early pace, too, based on how he pulled in his last race against inferior competition. I love RAHYSTRADA but he's just not good enough for this level. A true warrior, but just not good enough for these. THE APACHE has garnered a lot of attention as a Euro shipper but I don't think he has been as good going this long, period. REAL SOLUTION, HUNTER'S LIGHT and GRANDEUR are the three that I view as real contenders. If it magically rains, REAL SOLUTION might be the play, but otherwise I don't think he's as good on firm turf. As of March, HUNTER'S LIGHT was pretty much considered the best horse in the world as the favorite for the Dubai World Cup. He appears to be better on synthetic, but he has had plenty of success on turf, too, and hasn't exactly been embarrassed on turf in either of his last two starts in Signapore or Germany. In fact, it's all that travel that's probably my biggest concern. I like GRANDEUR despite his likely role as the favorite here. He won at 1 1/8 and 1 1/2 miles at Hollywood Park last winter, and was second by 1.5 lengths in another despite getting no pace to close into. MIDNIGHT EDIT: I may live to regret this, but HUNTER'S LIGHT seems like the value play here. I'd rather play him at 8/1 than GRANDEUR from post 13 at 7/2.
Del Mar race 2: Oh boy, 2-year-old fillies. There are five first-time starters and I would normally look primarily at one of them to win because the second-time starters here didn't do much in their debuts, but there's not a lot to look at. The first-time starter I like the most is NATIVE EMPRESS on the rail, but she certainly doesn't do a lot for me. Her trainer only wins with 5% of his first-time starters, so that's not a great track record to bet into. I'm totally split on CAL GAL vs. MEINERTZHAGENI. The latter put up a better speed figure and has a better trainer for second-time starters, but CAL GAL dueled on the lead and still held on for third in her debut. Gun to my head, I'm taking CAL GAL as speed has been good at 5.5 furlongs at Del Mar, but if there's a big odds disparity, I may go with MEINERTZHAGENI.
Del Mar race 3: My initial impression was that this race would be fairly slow up front, but upon further examination, even though there are only two real speed horses, it seems likely they will both go for the lead with all they have. BENCH BEAUTY is interesting as a horse who may have "finally figured it out" with back-to-back speed figs of 80+ here at Del Mar, but she hasn't ever run well at a mile. My three top contenders are HARD BUNS, CHESTNUT MOON and JERRY'SHONEYCAROL. I would guess that CHESTNUT MOON will be the favorite based on a class drop just three starts removed from a second-place finish in a $40,000 optional claimer, but HARD BUNS also figures to battle for favoritism. I don't like either as much as JERRY'SHONEYCAROL at what figures to be a much larger price. The former two are either on or close to the pace runners, and in addition to what I see being a fairly hot pace, the front hasn't been the place to be in Del Mar routes. JERRY'SHONEYCAROL gets back to a route after three unsuccessful tries going 6 or 5.5 furlongs. Her best effort came on Jan. 13 when she went a mile at Golden Gate in a $50,000 optional claimer and was beaten just two lengths. Getting back to her preferred distance at this much lower level should work and offers great value at a 15/1 ML. UPDATE: Well, that sucks. JERRY'SHONEYCAROL has scratched. I like CHESTNUT MOON better than HARD BUNS, but shit, I felt good about this one.
Saratoga race 7: The pace is HOT HOT HOT in this one. ALE has had bad trips in his last two races yet only lost both by a combined five lengths. Only two horses are listed as true off the pace horses -- LIQUIDITY TRAP and GOLD MEGILLAH -- but I'm not overly taken by either of those. GOLD MEGILLAH has made a habit of finishing well but not well enough, so I have little interest there at 7/2 in the favorite's role. LIQUIDITY TRAP is tempting if only because he's yet to get a strong pace to close into, yet he still has ran very well. The one race he did get a *little* early pace in was a $25,000 claimer that he won two starts back. I still like ALE. This is an improving 3-year-old who is dropping this low on the claiming ladder for the first time -- he was in a $75,000 optional claimer last time and a $50,000 race before that. He'll sit off the pace and get first run on the other late runners. UPDATE: LIQUIDITY TRAP scratched, so I feel even better about ALE.
Saratoga race 8: This race is basically the opposite of the last -- should be a SLOW PACE up front. If NOW AND THEN's dirt form transfers to this first try on dirt, I think he walks on the lead and draws off to win by open lengths. But I just generally find the way this horse has been campaigned as confusing. I don't think he's going to be as good on turf, period. I have no interest in him in the favorite's role. I like three horses here to some extent: HAILSTONE, LEAD SINGER and KATHY'S KITTEN. HAILSTONE is the "back class" pick -- last year at this time, he was running third in the John's Call while notching a 105 speed fig, and he even ran a somewhat decent sixth in the Grade 1 Sword Dance exactly a year ago Sunday. But he has been off his game recently and was no threat in an eighth-place finish in his last start against lesser competition than these. I have a fairly hard time separating LEAD SINGER and KATHY'S KITTEN, but I do think LEAD SINGER has a higher ceiling than KATHY'S KITTEN as this is just his sixth start, and he sold for $315,000 last February as a 2-year-old. He worked a bullet on the turf on Monday and is double the odds of KATHY'S KITTEN on the morning line. He seems worth a shot. UPDATE: HAILSTONE scratched, so I feel better about ignoring his back class.
Saratoga race 9: The Sword Dancer! Great name for a race. STORMY LORD and OPTIMIZER are the only two pace players in this race, and there's a chance STORMY LORD will scratch, although I think he's likely to run as somewhat of a rabbit for entrymate BIG BLUE KITTEN. Therefore, I think the pace will be decent for this 1.5 mile race on the turf. My general reaction to this race is that I think there's a solid chance for a big price. Most of the horses in this race have run well enough at some point to win a race of this caliber, so it just comes down to who shows up today. BOISTEROUS and BIG BLUE KITTEN, in that order, do indeed win if they run back to their last races. But both of those races were the best of their careers. If they run their "norm," so to speak, they're eminently beatable. And that's what I'll try to do here. TWILIGHT ECLIPSE is sort of interesting as I have him ranked "next best," but taking 5/1 on him when he was soundly beaten by BOISTEROUS last out and beaten by OPTIMIZER before that is hard to justify. TANNERY is interesting to me. His last race is a complete throwout due to the extremely slow pace there, and he hasn't been beaten by more than 2.5 lengths in any race with a better than average pace. At 20/1, he seems worth a shot. OPTIMIZER is the other horse I would take just mainly based on the projected slow pace, but this horse probably really needs a break -- he runs almost every month and he hasn't won since February. If STORMY LORD does scratch, he's the play, but otherwise I'm happy to go elsewhere. Additionally, if I had to decide between BOISTEROUS and BIG BLUE KITTEN, the decision is fairly easy: BOISTEROUS is quite a bit better in my book.
To recap:
SAR7: ALE (8/1 ML)
AP6: I'M ALREADY SEXY (5/1 ML)
SAR8: LEAD SINGER (12/1 ML)
AP7: NAJJAAR (6/1 ML)
SAR9: TANNERY (20/1 ML)
AP8: JACK MILTON (3/1 ML)
DMR2: CAL GAL (5/2 ML)
AP9: STARFORMER (8/1 ML)
DMR3: JERRY'SHONEYCAROL (15/1 ML)
AP10: HUNTER'S LIGHT (8/1 ML)
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