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| I'm banking on the removal of blinkers to help PALACE MALICE to settle back (unlike what he's doing here in the Derby) and make one strong run to win the Belmont Stakes. |
There’s really only one way to put it (earmuffs, children): The Belmont Stakes is a fucking mystery.That said, I have to give myself some kudos for solving the puzzle in last year's Belmont: In what remains my largest-ever bet on a single horse in a single race, UNION RAGS rallied up the rail to nip PAYNTER in the shadow of the wire as I went nuts while watching in my dad's living room.
Last year, of course, there was such great disappointment when I'LL HAVE ANOTHER scratched the day before the race and the Triple Crown dream died yet again.
There's a different vibe this year. Last year's edition wasn't exactly top-heavy -- I thought four of the 11 horses were real contenders, and two others weren't unreasonable -- but despite what ORB's trainer Shug McGauhey says, I only think there are three of 14 horses in this field that truly "don't belong."
I'll again borrow a bit from last year's preview:
The 12 furlongs in the Belmont Stakes is really nothing short of ridiculous for today’s racehorses.
Many of the recent Belmont Stakes winners have not been even “good” horses.
RULER ON ICE was 24-1 when winning in 2011.
DROSSELMEYER won at 13-1 in 2010. SUMMER BIRD (one of the few recent winners that turned out to be an outstanding horse) won at 11-1 in 2009. DA’ TARA shocked the world when BIG BROWN failed to fire in 2008 and paid 38-1.
Then there was BIRDSTONE at 36-1 in 2004 and the absolutely ridiculous SARAVA at 70-1 in 2002. Yes, 70-1.
In other words, you have to go beyond conventional handicapping when taking a look at the Belmont. Past performances are important to see how horses have performed as they stretch out, but dazzling speed figures are not. Horses need not be brilliant to win the Belmont Stakes … they need to be steady runners. It’s not which horse has the most burst at the end. It’s which horse falls off the least.A few overall thoughts on this year's edition before I dive in on a horse-by-horse basis:
There doesn't appear to be a ton of pace in this race, but the caveats are that a) everyone knows that, b) everyone knows this race favors horses closer to the pace and c) the track is likely to be at least "good" and may very well be "sloppy," which typically will favor horses on the lead (less kickback in their faces, etc.).
For instance, OXBOW and FREEDOM CHILD are two of the favorites, and both scored with front-running victories in their last races (OXBOW in the Preakness, of course, and FREEDOM CHILD in the G2 Peter Pan). Nobody expects PALACE MALICE to be on the lead without blinkers this time, but who knows? And FRAC DADDY's trainer, Ken McPeek, has already said he will be sending him to the front since he's on the rail and has performed best when up close.
In other words, trainers and jockeys alike don't see much pace in this race, and they know it may be advantageous to be closer to the pace ... so we just may see something quicker than anticipated. That said, I don't think any of those horses will cook each other up on the front end, though I do think they'll do enough to keep the other's honest. Ergo, while I don't think the pace is entirely irrelevant here, I expect it to be pretty moderate, and that the best horse will win pretty much regardless of running style. In my estimation, it probably sets up best for a horse three or so lengths off the pace.
I've seemed to do well in the past when I tier the horses rather than going through them in post position order, so that's what I'll do here, as well:
First, there are three horses that I consider clear non-contenders:
GIANT FINISH (Post Position #4, 40/1 odds per 5Dimes.com): I really don't see him being bred for this distance at all. He's been galloping miles upon miles every day, presumably to get his fitness up, but it almost seems like they're trying to overcompensate for something this horse just can't do. Even on his best day at his best distance, I don't think he can beat many of these on their worst day at his worst distance. He was a dull 10th in the Derby basically throughout the race -- never worse than 13th, never better than ninth at any call. This would be a SHOCKER.
MIDNIGHT TABOO (PP #8, 40/1): This one would actually appear to have a chance at getting the distance, but beyond that, he hasn't faced anything close to these in terms of class before. He's making a huge class jump and has never run a speed fig of better than 92 (ORB and OXBOW ran 111 and 112, respectively, in winning the Derby and Preakness). He would need to make a huge jump and the others would need to fall a good deal for this to happen.
INCOGNITO (PP #6, 30/1): See TABOO, MIDNIGHT. I guess I would say INCOGNITO has a slightly better chance based on a slightly better pedigree, but otherwise they both have basically the same likelihood of winning ... which is to say that they're not going to win.
Now, two other horses that I consider nearly hopeless:
WILL TAKE CHARGE (PP #10, 25/1): If not for the way he was moving with ORB when checked in the Derby, he would probably be on the "clear non-contenders" list. He was never better than seventh and finished 16 lengths back in the Preakness, and his breeding doesn't seem to support that he'd be better at 1.5 miles than he would going shorter. Had a very slow work on May 30. It's just that the way he was checked so badly in the Derby still gives me a bit of pause. There's no way I'm betting him, but I'm not going so far as to say he doesn't have any shot whatsoever.
VYJACK (PP #11, 25/1): I want to talk myself into this one since I bet on him in the Derby and will be ill if he comes back to win this, but he's just not bred to go this long at all. The talk was that they were going to put him on the turf for a while, but all of a sudden he's trying this again? His trainer has been in a terrible slump and his last work was fast but required a lot of urging, so I just can't see how I could justify putting money on him.
The overbet types:
GOLDEN SOUL (PP #14, 12/1): I nearly dumped him in as "nearly hopeless," and I do think he is that, but at least his breeding does appear to suit the distance, so I'll say there's a chance. That said, at a 12/1 morning line, no way. All he did was pick up the pieces in the Derby, and he really wasn't even running particularly fast late. Every other horse simply slowed down that much. Presented with a less insane pace, this horse seems very likely to finish mid-pack.
UNLIMITED BUDGET (PP #13, 10/1): In all honesty, RAGS TO RICHES beating CURLIN in the 2007 Belmont Stakes may be the race that catapulted me into following horse racing full-time more than anything else. I remember that outstanding stretch drive and call from Tom Durkin like no other, "AND AT THE TOP OF THE STRETCH, A FILLY IS IN FRONT OF THE BELMONT ... BUT CURLIN IS RIGHT THERE WITH HER ... THESE TWO ... IN A BATTLE OF THE SEXES AT THE BELMONT STAKES ... IT IS CURLIN ON THE INSIDE, RAGS TO RICHES ON THE OUTSIDE, A DESPERATE FINISH ... THEY'RE COMING DOWN TO THE WIRE, IT'S GONNA BE VERY CLOSE, AND IT'S GONNA BE ... A FILLY IN THE BELMONT! RAGS TO RICHES HAS BEATEN CURLIN AND OVER 100 YEARS OF BELMONT HISTORY ... THE FIRST FILLY TO WIN IT IN OVER A CENTURY." But UNLIMITED BUDGET is not RAGS TO RICHES. I was on her in the Kentucky Oaks where she ran a fairly respectable third in the first loss of her career, but pretty much everything about her tells me that she wants no part of 1.5 miles. Her breeding, her late fractions ... I just don't see it. Beyond all of that, I know she'll be bet fairly heavily as a filly against the boys, so no thanks.
REVOLUTIONARY (PP #9, 5/1): Every year, the public gets sucked into betting a horse like this at Belmont. There's an illusion that horses moving fast at the end of races want more ground -- that a horse flying at the end of a 1 1/4 mile race will undoubtedly be even better at a 1 1/2 mile race because he has more room to let that speed roll. Well, it doesn't really work that way all the time. It works sometimes, but more often than not, that late speed burst that a horse had for the final two furlongs of the Kentucky Derby isn't there for the final two furlongs of the Belmont Stakes. Take DULLAHAN last year for example. It seemed like he should love the longer distance, but when he came to the top of the stretch, he was completely empty. While REVOLUTIONARY's breeding does bode well for success at this distance, his deep closing running style just isn't likely to work here. He'd buck a lot of history if it did. The final straw for me is that he may not love the Belmont strip -- he was second as a .35-1 favorite back in his second start, which likely means nothing, but at odds of around 5-1 (I'll guess he closes even lower than that), he'll have to win without my backing. He also apparently hasn't trained all that well this week, so that's the final straw.
OXBOW (PP #7, 5.5/1): How great was seeing OXBOW turn back everyone at the top of the stretch in the Preakness? Fun race. I guess I don't really see him getting away with the same slow fractions here, though, and he's also going to be a fraction of the odds. I'm also not sold on his breeding to get the 1.5 miles, either. He did finish the Preakness with apparently a lot left in the tank (means more for frontrunners than closers), but again, that may have just been a function of the slow pace -- when you go slow early, almost everyone finishes comparatively faster. He worked pretty slowly in his last work, too, and you have to believe he's somewhat tired after running two great races back-to-back. At a short price, I'll pass, but I do think he's the most likely horse to win on the front end. If he drifts up a bit closer to 10/1, he might move from "overbet" to worth a small wager.
The completely weather-dependent group:
OVERANALYZE (PP #3, 16/1): Probably my biggest Derby disappointment in terms of just not showing ANYTHING. That said, he may have just not liked the slop, as he was never worse than 15th and never better than 11th. I liked him before the Derby, though, and if it's not sloppy, I'll bet him again in the Belmont for a little bit -- my big thing here is that his breeding isn't particularly great, but his sire *did* get a Belmont win last year with UNION RAGS, so it's not out of the question. At 16/1 on a non-sloppy track, I think he's worth a shot.
FREEDOM CHILD (PP #2, 9.5/1): If the track is sloppy, it would be tough to not include him. He won the Peter Pan by 13+ lengths after getting an easy early lead in the slop. Now, if it is indeed sloppy, he will likely be overbet -- and he did drift out in the Peter Pan, which typically means a horse is getting tired. And if he's getting tired at the end of 1 1/8 miles, then 1.5 miles probably isn't going to happen. So this isn't a ringing endorsement by any means -- if it's sloppy and he gets bet down to 5/1 or something, I'm not touching him and would much prefer ORB at 3/1 or thereabouts. But if it's sloppy and he's 10/1 ... I'll be in. His dry track form, on the other hand, is more like MIDNIGHT TABOO or INCOGNITO ... so he'd be a certain toss in that case.
Time for the three horses that I like to some extent.
First, the one longshot that I will half-heartedly endorse:
FRAC DADDY (PP #1, 33/1): The first horse I wrote about for this preview was FRAC DADDY, but I didn't finish his piece because I couldn't decide where to put him. I wanted to call him a no-chancer, but then I started to write about it and realized that I had more potentially positive things to say than negative. What I like: The pedigree is pretty strong, his trainer has had success with longshots in the Belmont, he's working well. What I don't like: He was one of the few horses that didn't advance from the rear of the field in the Derby (excuse: may have just hated the slop), he has generally tailed off at the end of races rather than finishing strong (but pace seems to have played a large role), and his bullet works in the past haven't necessarily been indicative of good results. So it's kind of a mixed bag. But the reason he earned my half-hearted endorsement at 33/1 is that his trainer has said he's going to the lead or near it this race, which he has done in four of seven starts (been within two lengths of the lead at the second call) ... and he has either won or finished second in all of those races. Combined with the pedigree, that's enough for me to say he might be worth a shot. He somewhat falls into the weather-dependent group since he ran so poorly in the slop at the Derby, but he had a previous solid off-track performance, and at 33/1, I would be willing to take the chance that the Derby was just a total aberration.
Time for my two best bets:
PALACE MALICE (PP #12, 14/1): This was my Derby horse, and he led for most of the race! HOORAY. Too bad he set ridiculously fast fractions out of nowhere with his blinkers on. Well, the blinkers are off, and I expect a big effort here. He has the perfect running style for this race (assuming he reverts to his non-blinkered performances), great breeding (by Curlin and even more stamina on his damside), and a good "blinkers off" angle for Pletcher. He has worked well since the Derby and it seems all systems are go. Time to see if he can live up to all the hype. One final piece for me is that, while handicapping is never just a one-number thing (i.e. I never look at JUST one factor and say THIS IS WHY I'M BETTING THIS HORSE), the closest to it for me is a horse's E2 time on the Bris sheets. Little-known fact: OXBOW had a higher E2 number in the Derby than ORB, checking in at 130 vs. 122. It worked in the Preakness. Now, granted, closers almost always have lower E2 ratings, so it's a bit skewed to speed, but I'm OK with that overall -- speed is key in American racing. Well, to get back to PALACE MALICE, his E2 rating in the Derby was 129. Sure, you can construe it as a function of a torrid and unsustainable pace, but I've found it to be a figure I can never ignore. I'm back on the PALACE MALICE train.
ORB (PP #5, 2.4/1): It turned out ORB wasn't a super horse after all. But he's apparently back to his "old self" on his home track at Belmont, and the breeding is there for the distance ... I can't really knock him this time around. Based on his Derby performance, it seems he loves the slop, too. Oh, and his last work was really good, drawing comparisons to his pre-Derby work. Additionally, the Derby notwithstanding, he has always been closer to the pace, so I don't see him as a deep closer like REVOLUTIONARY -- which sets up better in this race. His trainer wouldn't run him if he didn't think he had a good chance to win. I don't think his value is as good as PALACE MALICE, but I would be happy to get 3/1 on a fast track and 2/1 in the slop.
And there you have it. All in all, I won't be making any huge plays like I did last year with UNION RAGS. I'll likely bet both ORB and PALACE MALICE to win-place-show, and then make a smaller win-place-show bet on FRAC DADDY (and by small I likely mean SMALL).
Beyond that, I'm not quite sure yet. REVOLUTIONARY and OXBOW strike me as the two other real contenders, and then one of the OVERANALYZE/FREEDOM CHILD duo. I might key ORB and PALACE MALICE on top of those others in a superfecta box ... for $6 on each key box, it could be an enormous payday if PALACE MALICE wins and FRAC DADDY finds the money.
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