Now, I know some of you will wonder how the numbers below were created, but here's pretty close to the best explanation that I'm willing to give: through a lot of late nights and a lot of Excel programming.
It's not that I don't want to help you out if you're legitimately interested -- I'll be happy to run additional numbers for you or attempt to quantify the likelihood of various events in the tournament taking place -- but the development of many of the bits and pieces that go into the creation of these numbers has taken years. I'm not a generous enough man to simply give it all away. At least not yet.
If you want a window into what I'm doing here, visit kenpom.com. That scratches the surface, and I use some of the exact same statistics he does. In other cases, I have created some of my own metrics that have proven more useful than his.
How they all mingle together is what I won't explain. Feel free to inquire if you have a specific question, but you otherwise won't get much of an explanation from me.
Without further ado, here are my game lines for each of the upcoming 32 games already scheduled (there are four first-round games and then 28 currently scheduled second-round games; obviously there will be 32 once you toss in the first-round winners). Please note that NEU stands for NEUTRAL -- I have done this because you will have to make your own determinations where any slight "home court advantage" might apply. For the truly uninitiated, the team with the minus is the team that's favored -- for instance, I predict that North Carolina A-T will win by 2 points in a game with just less than 131 points; in other words, the final score will be roughly NC A-T 71, Liberty 69:
| NEU | ||
| 539 | LIBERTY | 130.95 |
| 540 | NORTH CAROLINA A&T | -2.12 |
| NEU | ||
| 541 | MIDDLE TENNESSEE | 130.96 |
| 542 | ST. MARY'S | -5.99 |
| NEU | ||
| 623 | LONG ISLAND | 142.33 |
| 624 | JAMES MADISON | -0.22 |
| NEU | ||
| 625 | LA SALLE | 139.16 |
| 626 | BOISE ST. | -4.17 |
| NEU | ||
| 709 | MISSOURI | 142.07 |
| 710 | COLORADO ST. | -1.19 |
| NEU | ||
| 711 | DAVIDSON | 136.11 |
| 712 | MARQUETTE | -7.47 |
| NEU | ||
| 713 | BUCKNELL | 122.32 |
| 714 | BUTLER | -2.84 |
| NEU | ||
| 715 | VALPARAISO | 126.96 |
| 716 | MICHIGAN ST. | -9.06 |
| NEU | ||
| 719 | AKRON | 136 |
| 720 | VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH | -4.08 |
| NEU | ||
| 721 | SOUTH DAKOTA ST. | 139.47 |
| 722 | MICHIGAN | -13.71 |
| NEU | ||
| 723 | SOUTHERN | 130.37 |
| 724 | GONZAGA | -18.64 |
| NEU | ||
| 725 | WICHITA ST. | 119.18 |
| 726 | PITTSBURGH | -3.08 |
| NEU | ||
| 727 | HARVARD | 123.7 |
| 728 | NEW MEXICO | -8.25 |
| NEU | ||
| 729 | BELMONT | 137.1 |
| 730 | ARIZONA | -7.05 |
| NEU | ||
| 731 | OREGON | 130.85 |
| 732 | OKLAHOMA ST. | -2.83 |
| NEU | ||
| 733 | NEW MEXICO ST. | 123.14 |
| 734 | ST. LOUIS | -2.45 |
| NEU | ||
| 735 | CALIFORNIA | 130.55 |
| 736 | NEVADA LAS VEGAS | -2.52 |
| NEU | ||
| 737 | MONTANA | 132.65 |
| 738 | SYRACUSE | -14.29 |
| NEU | ||
| 823 | ALBANY | 133.98 |
| 824 | DUKE | -18.93 |
| NEU | ||
| 825 | CINCINNATI | 132.62 |
| 826 | CREIGHTON | -0.99 |
| NEU | ||
| 827 | FLORIDA GULF COAST | 124.97 |
| 828 | GEORGETOWN | -11.99 |
| NEU | ||
| 829 | OKLAHOMA | 130.2 |
| 830 | SAN DIEGO ST. | -4.6 |
| NEU | ||
| 833 | TEMPLE | 149.6 |
| 834 | NORTH CAROLINA ST. | -3.04 |
| NEU | ||
| 835 | IONA | 146.04 |
| 836 | OHIO ST. | -12.58 |
| NEU | ||
| 837 | IOWA ST. | 151.32 |
| 838 | NOTRE DAME | -2.59 |
| NEU | ||
| 839 | WESTERN KENTUCKY | 136.34 |
| 840 | KANSAS | -16.32 |
| NEU | ||
| 841 | VILLANOVA | 136.7 |
| 842 | NORTH CAROLINA | -3.31 |
| NEU | ||
| 843 | MISSISSIPPI | 132.3 |
| 844 | WISCONSIN | -8.61 |
| NEU | ||
| 847 | NORTHWESTERN ST. | 142.43 |
| 848 | FLORIDA | -18.14 |
| NEU | ||
| 849 | MINNESOTA | -6.77 |
| 850 | UCLA | 137.15 |
| NEU | ||
| 851 | PACIFIC | 126.15 |
| 852 | MIAMI FL | -9.06 |
| NEU | ||
| 853 | COLORADO | 132.18 |
| 854 | ILLINOIS | -3.26 |
I know that's what most of you came looking for, so hopefully that will help to inform some of your early bracket decisions. As previously mentioned, I would be happy to run later matchups upon request.
I do have a few otherwise general comments on the selection process as a whole:
1. I have absolutely no problem with anything the Selection Committee did this year. Some of the seeding is truly bizarre, but I'm not even going to pretend to know (or care) about some of their geographic procedures. The bottom line is that every team that deserved to get in, got in. The team with the biggest gripe based on my numbers would be Kentucky, but those were numbers created mostly with Nerlens Noel. The Wildcats weren't the same team without him, and so I can't say the committee was wrong in leaving Kentucky out.
2. In other words, maybe the move to 68 teams hasn't been the biggest travesty ever. My initial thought when it happened was that it was a complete joke, but frankly, I'd have to say that it has worked out tremendously well. As much as I hated VCU getting in a few years ago (and, honestly, that was one of my biggest gripes with the committee EVER), they went from the First Four to the Final Four, so they showed that simply getting the right teams into the tournament period is the most important thing. The seeding doesn't necessarily matter as long as the teams that deserve a shot to play for the title get the shot they earned.
Now, here's a macro breakdown of what I see across the board to inform some of your later picks:
1. Everyone (including me) had the knee-jerk reaction that the Midwest was the toughest region, and everyone was right on some level (yep, I was right) -- at the top, the Midwest is the heaviest: three of the six best teams in the country are in that bracket: Louisville (#3), Duke (#4), Michigan State (#6). But on some level, everyone was wrong: the WEST has the most quality from top-to-bottom. The top teams speak for themselves: Gonzaga-Ohio State-New Mexico-Kansas State-Wisconsin-Arizona-Notre Dame-Pittsburgh, but the bottom teams are what make it: Wichita is really dangerous, Iowa State can beat anyone when they're hitting from outside, Belmont is incredibly efficient, Ole Miss is ... well, I think Ole Miss is garbage, but Marshall Henderson is really dangerous, and Boise State is easily the best No. 13 seed. Harvard is kind of "meh" at No. 14, but Iona is dangerous as a 15 seed and Southern is the second-best 16. So the MIDWEST may indeed be the "toughest" if you're talking about making it to the Final Four, but the games in the WEST are going to be the "toughest" if you're talking about closest. /Semantics-based discussion
2. The East is BY FAR the weakest region by pretty much any measure. I do have Indiana as the second-best team in the nation, but Miami-Marquette-Syracuse-UNLV-Butler-Illinois as your Nos. 2-7 seeds? Just awful. If you're in a multiply or add seed pool, this is the region where you pick Indiana and then all upsets and clean up.
3. There were plenty of head-scratchers in the seeding -- some of the Pac 12 teams getting 12 seeds while UCLA came up with a 6, for instance -- I only have three games in which the lower-seeded team is "better" than the higher-seeded team: Middle Tennessee/St. Mary's over Memphis (both teams are better), Boise State over Kansas State, and Minnesota over UCLA. So, again, more credit is due to the selection committee for incorporating at least some semblance of advanced metrics into their thought processes.
What follows now is a breakdown of other various outcome-based numerology I've created through a full tournament predictor. Again, this uses a proprietary metric and assigns probabilities for literally everything that might occur in this tournament. I can give you the likelihood that Team A will play Team B in the Sweet 16, and the likelihood that Team A will beat Team B in the Sweet 16, in just a few seconds.
In fact, just take a look at the below chart for the probabilities that each team wins the following number of games. As an example of what the chart means: Louisville is 66.87% likely to win both of their first two games, i.e. make the Sweet 16. They are 49.84% likely to make the Elite 8 and 29.33% likely to make the Final Four. Finally, they are 17.79% likely to make the championship game and have a 10.17% chance to win it all.
Here's the rest:
| winboth | win3 | win4 | win5 | win6 | |
| LOUISVILLE | 0.6687 | 0.498415 | 0.293286 | 0.177967 | 0.101764 |
| NORTH CAROLINA A-T | 0.000274 | 9.84E-06 | 1.77E-07 | 3.31E-09 | 5.45E-11 |
| COLORADO ST. | 0.201023 | 0.123253 | 0.053958 | 0.024581 | 0.01035 |
| MISSOURI | 0.130003 | 0.071613 | 0.026962 | 0.010596 | 0.003819 |
| OKLAHOMA ST. | 0.407285 | 0.148789 | 0.058759 | 0.0242 | 0.009163 |
| OREGON | 0.172292 | 0.04173 | 0.011122 | 0.003108 | 0.000786 |
| ST. LOUIS | 0.354312 | 0.107154 | 0.035339 | 0.012191 | 0.003835 |
| NEW MEXICO ST. | 0.066111 | 0.009036 | 0.001384 | 0.000223 | 3.2E-05 |
| MEMPHIS | 0.094997 | 0.0226 | 0.005919 | 0.001502 | 0.000344 |
| ST. MARY'S | 0.238526 | 0.084166 | 0.031844 | 0.011856 | 0.004039 |
| MICHIGAN ST. | 0.626329 | 0.336897 | 0.188208 | 0.10514 | 0.055001 |
| VALPARAISO | 0.040149 | 0.006386 | 0.001143 | 0.000195 | 2.98E-05 |
| CREIGHTON | 0.200745 | 0.094981 | 0.042161 | 0.018546 | 0.007526 |
| CINCINNATI | 0.167933 | 0.075137 | 0.031421 | 0.012988 | 0.004936 |
| DUKE | 0.629822 | 0.379755 | 0.21849 | 0.125827 | 0.068009 |
| ALBANY | 0.001501 | 7.81E-05 | 3.46E-06 | 1.42E-07 | 5.15E-09 |
| winboth | win3 | win4 | win5 | win6 | |
| GONZAGA | 0.575731 | 0.339992 | 0.201581 | 0.105889 | 0.055037 |
| SOUTHERN | 0.001583 | 7.85E-05 | 3.97E-06 | 1.53E-07 | 5.67E-09 |
| PITTSBURGH | 0.313836 | 0.172841 | 0.095595 | 0.046331 | 0.022191 |
| WICHITA ST. | 0.108851 | 0.042546 | 0.016722 | 0.005515 | 0.001787 |
| WISCONSIN | 0.494302 | 0.262549 | 0.154573 | 0.080533 | 0.041511 |
| MISSISSIPPI | 0.09035 | 0.024333 | 0.007834 | 0.002077 | 0.000539 |
| KANSAS ST. | 0.199895 | 0.074719 | 0.032327 | 0.011862 | 0.004283 |
| BOISE ST. | 0.215453 | 0.082941 | 0.036836 | 0.013918 | 0.005177 |
| ARIZONA | 0.394816 | 0.188761 | 0.082795 | 0.03459 | 0.014249 |
| BELMONT | 0.116125 | 0.034455 | 0.008923 | 0.002184 | 0.000523 |
| NEW MEXICO | 0.459031 | 0.212808 | 0.090198 | 0.036385 | 0.014464 |
| HARVARD | 0.030028 | 0.004515 | 0.000562 | 6.58E-05 | 7.48E-06 |
| NOTRE DAME | 0.202908 | 0.092287 | 0.032887 | 0.011117 | 0.003693 |
| IOWA ST. | 0.139997 | 0.055962 | 0.017127 | 0.004962 | 0.00141 |
| OHIO ST. | 0.633344 | 0.406813 | 0.22147 | 0.115585 | 0.059683 |
| IONA | 0.023751 | 0.004398 | 0.000566 | 6.88E-05 | 8.1E-06 |
| winboth | win3 | win4 | win5 | win6 | |
| KANSAS | 0.591331 | 0.306168 | 0.147101 | 0.074757 | 0.036158 |
| WESTERN KENTUCKY | 0.003251 | 0.00018 | 8.01E-06 | 4.04E-07 | 1.79E-08 |
| NORTH CAROLINA | 0.274947 | 0.122116 | 0.049674 | 0.021576 | 0.008824 |
| VILLANOVA | 0.130471 | 0.044079 | 0.013342 | 0.004375 | 0.001328 |
| VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH | 0.280567 | 0.126478 | 0.049014 | 0.020334 | 0.00792 |
| AKRON | 0.06358 | 0.015994 | 0.003317 | 0.000756 | 0.000157 |
| MICHIGAN | 0.643295 | 0.383584 | 0.203251 | 0.113233 | 0.060436 |
| SOUTH DAKOTA ST. | 0.012559 | 0.001401 | 0.000125 | 1.25E-05 | 1.11E-06 |
| UCLA | 0.094654 | 0.038013 | 0.013415 | 0.004683 | 0.001519 |
| MINNESOTA | 0.26037 | 0.144332 | 0.072379 | 0.035785 | 0.016806 |
| FLORIDA | 0.638084 | 0.433424 | 0.273175 | 0.169707 | 0.101824 |
| NORTHWESTERN ST. | 0.006892 | 0.00083 | 8.3E-05 | 8.32E-06 | 7.38E-07 |
| SAN DIEGO ST. | 0.360356 | 0.147861 | 0.070624 | 0.033268 | 0.014836 |
| OKLAHOMA | 0.130856 | 0.034957 | 0.011232 | 0.003574 | 0.001051 |
| GEORGETOWN | 0.501682 | 0.200181 | 0.093232 | 0.042832 | 0.018598 |
| FLORIDA GULF COAST | 0.007106 | 0.000403 | 2.84E-05 | 2E-06 | 1.24E-07 |
| winboth | win3 | win4 | win5 | win6 | |
| INDIANA | 0.757999 | 0.48862 | 0.341104 | 0.199876 | 0.117443 |
| JAMES MADISON | 0.001367 | 5.37E-05 | 2.64E-06 | 7.88E-08 | 2.35E-09 |
| NORTH CAROLINA ST. | 0.180625 | 0.072176 | 0.033095 | 0.011295 | 0.003864 |
| TEMPLE | 0.060008 | 0.015866 | 0.004979 | 0.001084 | 0.000237 |
| NEVADA LAS VEGAS | 0.24847 | 0.090696 | 0.045237 | 0.017127 | 0.0065 |
| CALIFORNIA | 0.116202 | 0.031398 | 0.012128 | 0.003367 | 0.000937 |
| SYRACUSE | 0.631688 | 0.301018 | 0.185509 | 0.092001 | 0.045748 |
| MONTANA | 0.00364 | 0.000171 | 1.26E-05 | 5.7E-07 | 2.58E-08 |
| BUTLER | 0.294871 | 0.108533 | 0.030533 | 0.008671 | 0.002468 |
| BUCKNELL | 0.115116 | 0.028222 | 0.005079 | 0.000917 | 0.000166 |
| MARQUETTE | 0.527918 | 0.24942 | 0.093335 | 0.035375 | 0.01344 |
| DAVIDSON | 0.062095 | 0.011387 | 0.001501 | 0.000198 | 2.61E-05 |
| ILLINOIS | 0.251755 | 0.144884 | 0.053781 | 0.020218 | 0.007619 |
| COLORADO | 0.195996 | 0.105102 | 0.035202 | 0.011928 | 0.004051 |
| MIAMI FL | 0.524294 | 0.345404 | 0.157608 | 0.072928 | 0.033832 |
| PACIFIC | 0.027955 | 0.007048 | 0.000893 | 0.000113 | 1.43E-05 |
If you can't make sense of that chart and just want to know who I think is most likely to win it all, the answer is Indiana. I give them an 11.7% chance of winning the title.
Beyond all of that, if you're in a larger pool or have the ability to bet on the winner of the NCAA tournament, I like the following squads: Michigan, Minnesota, San Diego State and Colorado State. Michigan is a team that isn't that far removed from the upper echelon, yet you can grab them at a whopping 30/1 in some places. The biggest argument against them is probably the tough potential second-round matchup against VCU, but they get Kansas -- the weakest 1 to my system -- and maybe even Georgetown -- the weakest 2.
In fact, you'll notice that the first three teams I listed there were all from the South regional. Minnesota figures to benefit greatly from getting outside of the Big 10 and has an easy matchup (for an 11 seed) against UCLA to open the tourney. Florida presents the biggest hurdle for them in round 2. Minnesota at 85/1 is not bad.
San Diego State is not as good as either of the above teams, but I think the odds you can get on them currently are totally out of line. 220/1! Compare that to 15/1 on New Mexico and, well ... the Lobos are not that much better than the Aztecs. Granted, I don't think they ought to be equal odds, but there's a solid overlay on San Diego State. Yeah, it's hard to see them going all the way, but if they can win a few, you could start hedging out of the position with ease.
I'm not going to get into detailed odds discussions about the following, but if you're looking for some longer shots to win various regions, I don't hate the following:
TO WIN MIDWEST REGION: CINCINNATI, COLORADO STATE, MICHIGAN STATE, OKLAHOMA STATE, ST. MARY'S
TO WIN SOUTH REGION: MICHIGAN, MINNESOTA, SAN DIEGO STATE
TO WIN WEST REGION: BOISE STATE, WISCONSIN
TO WIN EAST REGION: COLORADO, ILLINOIS, MARQUETTE
Finally, here's some specific prop-based analysis that may vary depending on your betting outlet of choice:
TOTAL #1 SEEDS TO MAKE THE FINAL FOUR: I come up with .98 No. 1 seeds making the Final Four.
Total ACC wins = 8.813
Duke 2.39
UNC 1.09
Miami 1.99
NC State .95
Total Big East wins = 12
Louisville 2.73
Cincinnati .76
Pittsburgh 1.31
Notre Dame .90
Villanova .58
Georgetown 1.78
Syracuse 2.21
Marquette 1.73
Total Big 10 wins = 13.72
Michigan St. 2.18
Wisconsin 1.79
Ohio St. 2.33
Michigan 2.33
Minnesota 1.18
Indiana 2.89
Illinois 1.02
Total Big 12 wins = 5.39
Oklahoma St. 1.29
Kansas St. .81
Iowa St. .66
Kansas 2.11
Oklahoma .52
Total Pac 12 wins = 3.85
Oregon .58
Arizona 1.41
UCLA .5
Cal .55
Colorado .81
Total SEC wins = 3.61
Missouri .68
Ole Miss .37
Florida 2.56
Will a 12 seed win at least one game?
I give Cal a 38.4% chance of beating UNLV. Akron a 28.7% chance of beating VCU. Ole Miss a 24.2% chance of beating Wisconsin. Oregon a 35.3% chance of beating Oklahoma State.
We first need to calculate the likelihood none of the events occur, i.e. they all lose. So that’s .616 * .713 * .758 * .647 = .215. 1-.215 = .785 or a 78.5% chance that at least one No. 12 seed will win.
Will a 14, 15 or 16 seed win at least one game?
If you want exact probabilities on these, too bad. Suffice to say, using the same procedure as above, there is a 34.2% chance that a 14, 15 or 16 seed WILL NOT win at least one game; ergo, there is a 65.8% chance that at least one 14, 15 or 16 seed WILL win a game.
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