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| IT'S TRICKY is my pick to win the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic. |
Armed with Brisnet's fantastic Breeders' Cup Handicapping package, I spent most of last night delving into the PPs.
We get six races today, all of varying intrigue. As a fan, I'm not tremendously excited about the juvenile races today ... but they offer some good betting opportunities. Each race has its own unique appeal.
Without further ado, here's your Breeders' Cup Friday rundown:
Juvenile Sprint:
Post Horse Jockey Trainer ML
1 Seeker Julien Leparoux Steven M. Asmussen 4/1
2 Sum of the Parts Rajiv Maragh Thomas M. Amoss 15/1
3 Blacky the Bull Patrick Valenzuela Jeffrey L. Bonde 20/1
4 Trinniberg Cornelio Velasquez Bisnath Parbhoo 9/2
5 Shumoos Garret Gomez Brian Meehan 15/1
6 Secret Circle Rafael Bejarano Bob Baffert 6/5
7 Holdin Bullets Jeffery Sanchez Wesley A. Ward 15/1
8 Jake Mo Mike Smith Allen Milligan 20/1
9 Vexor David Cohen John C. Kimmel DVM 5/1
Although officially six furlongs, the configuration of this course at Churchill Downs means this race is actually more like 6.25 furlongs.
SEEKER has been beaten by VEXOR at both 5.5 and 6 furlongs. Has looked good in the morning but unless the track comes up sloppy, PASS.
SUM OF THE PARTS hasn't won since his debut and was fourth and fifth in two grade 3's. PASS.
BLACKY THE BULL appears outclassed but is one of the few to go 6.5 furlongs and win. Ability to come off the pace is also somewhat interesting, but a poor Sunday morning makes this a PASS.
TRINNIBERG has finished second in his last two races, a G2 and a G1. Though beaten 3/4 of a length by VEXOR, must be considered as he appears to like Churchill Downs. In multi-race tickets, INCLUDE.
SHUMOOS is a shipper who won his only race off the turf in Europe. At $375,000 SHE is more than double the next most expensive horse in the field. This trainer won with a horse at 10-1 last year in the Turf, but my international analysis doesn't think too highly of her. Either way, she looks very healthy and I say you have to INCLUDE.
SECRET CIRCLE is a deserving favorite after two huge speed figs of 103 and two huge wins by 5 and 7 lengths in his first two starts. The most promising part to me is that he sat third in his last race before exploding to the finish.
Not needing the lead is huge in this type of race at this level, and you can't help but make this a WIN BET.
HOLDIN BULLETS had a promising debut back in April but hasn't raced since. Has worked well but it seems like an awfully big jump to make from the sidelines to the winner's circle here. PASS.
JAKE MO won a very weak maiden race in monstrous fashion with a 94 speed fig and a 9 length margin, but was third behind SUM OF THE PARTS in second in his last out. The pedigree isn't particularly strong and the morning activity has been unimpressive. PASS.
VEXOR has beaten SEEKER twice and TRINNIBERG once (while getting bested by TRINNIBERG once as well) and his last two non-slop starts have been wins with speed figs of 98 and 93, respectively. Still think he's pretty clearly outclassed by SECRET CIRCLE but you must INCLUDE.
WIN BET: SECRET CIRCLE
EXOTICS/MULTI-RACE BETS (in order of preference): VEXOR, SHUMOOS, TRINNIBERG
Juvenile Fillies Turf:
Post Horse Jockey Trainer ML
1 My Gi Gi Rafael Bejarano Brian J. Koriner 20/1
2 Dayatthespa Ramon Dominguez Chad C. Brown 12/1
3 Up (IRE) Ryan Moore Aidan P. O'Brien 20/1
4 Stopshoppingmaria Javier Castellano Todd A. Pletcher 8/1
5 Stephanie's Kitten John Velazquez Wayne M. Catalano 12/1
6 Sweet Cat Garrett Gomez Todd A. Pletcher 10/1
7 Royal Bonnie Cornelio Velasquez George Weaver 30/1
8 Hard Not to Like Mike Smith Gail Cox 15/1
9 Pure Gossip Ryan Curatolo Philip M. Serpe 12/1
10 Elusive Kate William Buick John H.M. Gosden 2/1
11 Ann of the Dance Corey Nakatani Martin D. Wolfson 30/1
12 Dear Lavinia Christophe Lemaire Jean-Claude Rouget 30/1
13 Customer Base Julien Leparoux Thomas F. Proctor 12/1
14 Somali Lemonade Alex Solis Michael R. Matz 3/1
AE Bourbonstreetgirl Joe Talamo Gary Contessa 30/1
AE Karlovy Vary Garrett Gomez George R. Arnold II 30/1
MY GI GI appears to lack the class needed in this spot. PASS.
DAYATTHESPA was second in a grade 3 at Woodbine on Sept. 17 with a speed fig of 97. Given that the par is 94 and she's going well, it's hard to keep her out of contention. INCLUDE.
UP is apparently the smallest thoroughbred ever and she won her last race ... on an artificial surface. Was 11th against a weak field in her only turf try to date. PASS.
STOPSHOPPINGMARIA hasn't run on turf yet, but she's absolutely bred for it. A second-place finish in the G1 Frizette as the favorite and speed figs of 96-105-93 make this one a true contender. WIN BET.
STEPHANIE'S KITTEN is another that figures to be better on turf, though she won her last race on the polytrack at Keeneland with a speed fig of 96. In her one real test on turf to date, she ran a speed fig of 95 in a third place finish behind DAYATTHESPA. Did not seem to relish the Churchill grass when running here on Oct. 29 so I think this is a PASS.
SWEET CAT was second in a G3 last out, beaten by Somali Lemonade. She stalked the pace and was clear before being run down, so I don't see how you could toss this one. INCLUDE.
ROYAL BONNIE is making a huge step up in class even though she was second in a weak grade 3 to PURE GOSSIP last out. Too much to ask. PASS.
HARD NOT TO LIKE is actually sort of hard to like. Although she had an excuse -- bumping -- in her fifth place finish in her only G3 try, it came against largely inferior competition at Woodbine. I think this daughter of HARD SPUN will actually end up on dirt someday. PASS.
PURE GOSSIP won the G3 Miss Grillo by 6 lengths at 23-1 odds, but the field was undeniably weak and the course soft. She might very well be the real deal, but this is another one who will probably end up on dirt. PASS.
ELUSIVE KATE is pretty easily the horse to beat. She has now won four straight, including a G3 and her first G1 by three lengths at 1 mile in her last out. Given that Euros have had a clear upper hand on turf in just about every division for quite some time, it's hard to pick against her. WIN BET.
ANN OF THE DANCE tries her first on grass and does have license to improve with a grass-favoring pedigree ... but her only wins so far have come in a maiden and optional claimer. No chance. PASS.
DEAR LAVINIA is another Euro invader that has three wins in five starts. ELUSIVE KATE beat her by 2.5 lengths back on July 30, but it would be impossible to not include her in some fashion. WIN BET.
CUSTOMER BASE tries turf for the first time after two wins from two starts in a maiden and allowance race on the dirt. Appears very sharp right now after firing a bullet on Halloween, but this trainer doesn't have a good record with horses trying turf for the first time. PASS.
SOMALI LEMONADE is America's best hope against the Euros. Her two wins, though, were against inferior competition and they weren't exactly easy. She has made great sweeping moves in her two wins from deep, which should help her, but I don't see her kicking hope with enough gusto to beat out the Euros. INCLUDE.
WIN BETS: ELUSIVE KATE, DEAR LAVINIA, STOPSHOPPINGMARIA (this seems like a good race to NOT make a win bet on)
EXOTICS/MULTI-RACE BETS: DAYATTHESPA, SOMALI LEMONADE, SWEET CAT
Filly and Mare Sprint:
Post Horse Jockey Trainer ML
1 Irish Gypsy Martin Garcia Bob Baffert 20/1
2 Great Hot (BRZ) Chantal Sutherland Antonio C. Avila 20/1
3 Turbulent Descent David Flores Mike Puype 6/5
4 Champagne d'Oro Corey Nakatani Eric J. Guillot 30/1
5 Musical Romance Juan Leyva William A. Kaplan 20/1
6 Switch Joel Rosario John W. Sadler 3/1
7 Tar Heel Mom Alex Solis Stanley M. Hough 12/1
8 Tanda Joe Talamo Mike R. Mitchell 20/1
9 Golden Mystery Kendrick Carmouche Juan Carlos Guerrero 20/1
10 Tamarind Hall David Cohen Jeremiah C. Englehart 20/1
11 Her Smile John Velazquez Todd A. Pletcher 15/1
12 Pomeroys Pistol Javier Castellano Amy Tarrant 6/1
13 Shotgun Gulch Garrett Gomez C. R. Trout 30/1
IRISH GYPSY did win a G2 at this distance in July at Del Mar, but she's only cracked a speed fig of 100 once -- and that came at 5 furlongs back in May. Also comes off a layoff since August. Just asking too much against these. PASS.
GREAT HOT won a G2 at Keeneland on Oct. 22, but the speed fig was only 91. Too many other much better horses are set up to come from off the pace here. PASS.
TURBULENT DESCENT has lost just two races this year: To the very talented ZAZU back in February and then 1 mile Acorn on a muddy track to IT’S TRICKY in June. She ran huge back in August with a speed fig of 108 in the 7 furlong Test as the even money favorite. At 6/5, though, I don't think she offers enough value. We can do better. Still, INCLUDE.
CHAMPAGNE D'ORO was favored in this race last year! She finished fourth and hasn't done better than third since. Kind of sad, really. PASS.
MUSICAL ROMANCE is a quiet name who only first ventured out of Calder on September 11th to win a G2 at Presque Isle and then finished second in a G2 at Keeneland. She has run big before but I think this is longer than she wants. PASS.
SWITCH has spent much of the year running at much longer distances, but the cutback here makes sense. She has two wins, two seconds and one third in five lifetime races at this distance, and her most recent three were a second in last year's F&M Sprint here at Churchill and two wins last December and January at Santa Anita. Those wins were dominant, by the way, and against G1 competition. WIN BET.
TAR HEEL MOM was kind of a cute quiet success story for quite a while. She won a G3 in January, then a G2 in August when people started to realize she might be for real. She caught a bad break in the G1 Ballerina and stumbled at the start, but she was well-beaten by HILDA'S PASSION. I don't see a ton of pace pressure here so I could see her hanging on for a piece. INCLUDE.
TANDA has been OK. She has won three grade 3s and hasn't fared better than third in a G2 or G1. There's a reason for that. PASS.
GOLDEN MYSTERY makes a big jump in class. Speed figures dictate that she could hang just fine, but she has never once run in graded company. Like TAR HEEL MOM, she could benefit from not a lot of pace ... but this is asking a lot. PASS.
TAMARIND HALL ran huge at the 7 furlong distance back in July at Belmont, posting a 109 in her 5 length win of a G3. She has been second (to POMEROYS PISTOL) in a G2 and third (behind TAR HEEL MOM) since. Must INCLUDE.
HER SMILE has fooled me before with sharp works, but not this time from an outside post. I like to root for Bobby Flay's horses (because I hit a nice winner with one of them once, mainly), but she's in deep here. PASS.
POMEROYS PISTOL is one tough customer. She definitely lacks the background of many of these other gals, but she hasn't finished worse than second in four races since May, winning two of those. Her G2 win last out was by a solid four lengths over TAMARIND HALL and she has plenty of versatility to claim a piece here. INCLUDE.
SHOTGUN GULCH managed to win a G1 back in April at Keeneland at this very distance. She hasn't won since and has finished 5th-7th-3rd-6th. PASS.
WIN BET: SWITCH
EXOTICS/MULTI-RACE BETS: TURBULENT DESCENT, POMEROYS PISTOL, TAR HEEL MOM, TAMARIND HALL
Juvenile Fillies:
Post Horse Jockey Trainer ML
1 Questing (GB) William Buick John H.M. Gosden 20/1
2 Candrea Martin Garcia Bob Baffert 6/1
3 Rocket Twentyone Eddie Razo W.T. Howard 20/1
4 Miss Netta Rajiv Maragh Kiaran P. McLaughlin 15/1
5 Grace Hall Ramon Dominguez Anthony W. Dutrow 4/1
6 Self Preservation Joel Rosario Ben D. A. Cecil 15/1
7 Putthebabiesdown Alan Garcia Kenneth G. McPeek 30/1
8 Homecoming Queen (IRE) Ryan Moore Aidan P. O'Brien 15/1
9 My Miss Aurelia Corey Nakatani Steven M. Asmussen 5/2
10 Northern Passion Luis Contreas Mark E. Casse 12/1
11 Weemissfrankie Rafael Bejarano Peter A. Eurton 4/1
12 Frolic's Revenge John Velazquez Milton W. Wolfson 30/1
13 Say a Novena Elvis Trujillo Edward Plesa Jr. 30/1
14 Awesome Belle Luis Jurado Stanley Gold 20/1
QUESTING is another Euro invader, only this time trying dirt for the first time. A somewhat curious decision on the face, but as a daughter of HARD SPUN, I expect her to improve here. Still, too many questions, including if she can get the distance. PASS.
CANDREA was second in the G1 Oak Leaf but the amount of early speed in this race basically makes all of these types a toss. PASS.
ROCKET TWENTYONE has two wins in two starts but seems better suited to shorter distances. PASS.
MISS NETTA was third in the G1 Frizette and tossed up a huge workout on Oct. 29 -- something she hasn't done in the past. Impossible to ignore. INCLUDE.
GRACE HALL is undefeated in three starts, including a 2 length win in the G1 Spinaway. The fact that she came off the pace in that one is a huge plus to me. WIN BET.
SELF PRESERVATION was fifth in her last similar race -- the G1 Oak Leaf. No way. PASS.
PUTTHEBABIESDOWN has yet to run on dirt and doesn't seem to particularly love or hate it. Lacks the class and pedigree of many of the others. PASS.
HOMECOMING QUEEN is a Euro invader who should be much better on turf, so it's curious that they're trying her on dirt here. Third and sixth in past artificial surface starts. PASS.
MY MISS AURELIA has won all three starts, including the G1 Frizette, with speed figs of 101-99-99. She's in real trouble, though, in my opinion. She needs to basically be right on the lead and that is going to be an absolute bear of a task in this race. You probably have to include her in multi-race wagers in case she's just that good, but I'd be OK taking a shot against her and skipping her in exotics. INCLUDE.
NORTHERN PASSION should be running in the turf race. Tossed up a 99 in winning a G3 last out on turf. She has done fine in lower-level artificial races, but this is just a silly shot to take in my opinion. PASS.
WEEMISSFRANKIE won the G1 Oak Leaf I keep referencing, but the speed fig was a blah 94. Still, he's undefeated, and this one can really come from off the pace. Appears to be training stronger than ever, so WIN BET.
FROLIC'S REVENGE really has no business here. PASS.
SAY A NOVENA is another horse that figures to get caught in a speed duel and has never raced this far. PASS.
AWESOME BELLE will be gunning for that lead and hasn't raced against graded company yet. PASS.
WIN BETS: GRACE HALL, WEEMISSFRANKIE
EXOTICS/MULTI-RACE BETS: MISS NETTA, MY MISS AURELIA
Filly and Mare Turf:
Post Horse Jockey Trainer ML
1 Dubawi Heights (GB) Joel Rosario Simon Callaghan 8/1
2 Stacelita (FR) Ramon Dominguez Chad C. Brown 2/1
3 Harmonious Martin Garcia John A. Shirreffs 30/1
4 Cambina (IRE) Garrett Gomez Jeffrey L. Bonde 30/1
5 Nahrain (GB) Frankie Dettori Roger Varian 7/2
6 Announce (GB) Maxime Guyone Andre Fabre 9/2
7 Aruna Julien Leparoux H. Graham Motion 6/1
8 Perfect Shirl John Velazquez Roger L. Attfield 30/1
9 Shared Account Edgar Prado H. Graham Motion 30/1
10 Distorted Legacy Rajiv Maragh Angel Penna Jr. 30/1
11 Dynaslew Corey Nakatani Seth Benzel 30/1
12 Misty For Me (IRE) Ryan Moore Aidan P. O'Brien 10/1
DUBAWI HEIGHTS has claimed two G1 wins this year and one G3, but would seem to be better at a shorter distance than the 1 3/8 here. That said, with basically no pace in the race ... definitely could hold on for a piece. INCLUDE.
STACELITA is the best (now) U.S. based turf horse we have, but I'm worried about her ability on firm ground. Her last two smashing wins have come on yielding turf and, while it won't be rock hard Saturday, it should be fairly firm. She was third the last time she ran 1 3/8, although that certainly is not a limiting factor for her. I just think this race is too wide open to have this heavy a favorite. Can't recommend going all-in here -- but INCLUDE.
HARMONIOUS hasn't shown much since October 2010. She's winless since then. Hard to believe she can bounce back against these after finishing 10th here at 5-1 last year. PASS.
CAMBINA won a G1 in July by a head but has been fourth and fifth in a pair since. Worked poorly, as well. PASS.
NAHRAIN is an interesting option with four wins in four starts. Apparently looks great at Churchill, too. It's always somewhat hard to tell with Euros but this three-year-old looks to be the real deal and will run with Lasix for the first time. WIN BET.
ANNOUNCE lost by just a nose to NAHRAIN so you could potentially say she offers better value. However, she'll carry four more pounds (carried five more in the last race, so there's no big change there) and will not be adding Lasix. She has successfully won at 1 1/2 whereas NAHRAIN has been limited to 1 1/4 so far, but I'll rank her just a notch behind. INCLUDE.
ARUNA hasn't finished worse than second in five graded starts this year, but one of those wins was on the artificial stuff at Keeneland. Her second in the Diana was impressive due to traffic, but I have fairly serious doubts that she can get the distance here. PASS.
PERFECT SHIRL hasn't won since July 2010. PASS.
SHARED ACCOUNT won this race last year at odds of 46-1. Then she ran twice this year and finished fourth and sixth. Maybe she just loves this distance and course ... but I don't see it at all. PASS.
DISTORTED LEGACY finished second to STACELITA in her last out but had run her previous three on dirt. She has never won on turf in seven starts. PASS.
DYNASLEW has some potential pace advantage factors and ran a 103 speed fig at this exact distance in a September G3 at Saratoga. But she hasn't won since August 2010 and trained poorly recently. PASS.
MISTY FOR ME has won two G1s in Europe and might actually be a better value than the other two tough Euros here. She beat the fabulous MIDDAY by six lengths at 1 1/4 miles in June but was fifth at 1 1/2 miles in her prior start. On soft ground, she gets a major upgrade; otherwise, I'll take the advice of the workout reports and stay away since she looks stiff. PASS.
WIN BET: NAHRAIN
EXOTICS/MULTI-RACE BETS: ANNOUNCE, STACELITA, DUBAWI HEIGHTS
Ladies' Classic:
Post Horse Jockey Trainer ML
1 Miss Match (ARG) Garrett Gomez Neil D. Drysdale 10/1
2 Pachattack Rajiv Maragh Gerard A. Butler 12/1
3 It's Tricky Ramon Dominguez Kiaran P. McLaughlin 5/1
4 Satans Quick Chick Edgar Prado Eric R. Reed 30/1
5 Ask the Moon Javier Castellano Martin D. Wolfson 6/1
6 Royal Delta Jose Lezcano William I. Mott 5/2
7 Ultra Blend David Flores Art Sherman 8/1
8 Plum Pretty Rafael Bejarano Bob Baffert 2/1
9 Medaglia d'Amour Patrick Valenzuela Ben D. A. Cecil 30/1
10 Super Espresso John Velazquez Todd A. Pletcher 20/1
MISS MATCH hasn't shown much of anything since winning a G1 in May. Her best finish since then was a third in a G1 in June. Only 2-for-8 lifetime at this distance and is probably better at shorter.
PACHATTACK is an interesting option. After a career spent primarily on turf, she has found dirt and synthetic to be rather inviting, winning two of four tries this year. With all the attention on the big three of IT'S TRICKY, PLUM PRETTY AND ROYAL DELTA, this old lady could crash the party. INCLUDE.
IT'S TRICKY has been beaten by each of her main competitors here today in her last out -- one at a slightly longer distance and one at a slightly shorter distance. Her speed figures certainly label her a contender with figs of 106-98-101-109, but she was WELL beaten in both of those last two starts. Of course, she beat those same two at this very distance back in July. What a mess! Her ability to sit just off the pace is a major plus. At 5/1, I just think she offers better odds than ROYAL DELTA. WIN BET.
SATANS QUICK CHICK isn't quick enough to compete here. ROYAL DELTA beat her by six lengths in her last out and she hasn't won since January. PASS.
ASK THE MOON figures to go nuts after the lead and really muck things up for PLUM PRETTY. She has run huge before -- this mare put up a 107 at this distance in a five length G1 win in July -- but she absolutely needs the lead. PLUM PRETTY will almost certainly not allow her to have it, and I think that sets up poorly overall. PASS.
ROYAL DELTA lost nothing in losing to HAVRE DE GRACE by 8 lengths in her last out on a muddy track at this distance. After winning the Black Eyed Susan on Preakness Day, she has alternated between winning and not. She could be due here, and she can sit back. Huge plus. But I'd rather take IT'S TRICKY at 5/1 than ROYAL DELTA at 5/2. INCLUDE.
ULTRA BLEND might be the biggest beneficiary of the likely quick pace up front in this one ... but she has never run further than 1 1/16th before and grabbed a quarter in her last work. PASS.
PLUM PRETTY is going to have a hell of a time. She destroyed IT'S TRICKY in her last out, but she seems pretty intent on needing that lead -- and I think ASK THE MOON will force her to exert herself too much to do that. Maybe she can put her away and hold off these others, but I really think she's horrible value to win at 2/1. INCLUDE.
MEDAGLIA D'AMOUR spiked a fever and has been scratched. PASS.
SUPER ESPRESSO is owned by Bobby Flay! She won on Preakness Day in a great performance that netter here a 105 speed figure but has disappointed since and appears to be falling out of form. Has been beaten by ASK THE MOON and PACHATTACK twice each in her last four races. PASS.
WIN BET: IT'S TRICKY
INCLUDE: ROYAL DELTA, PACHATTACK, PLUM PRETTY
So, to review:
Juvenile Sprint:
WIN BET: SECRET CIRCLE
EXOTICS/MULTI-RACE BETS (in order of preference): VEXOR, SHUMOOS, TRINNIBERG
Juvenile Fillies Turf:
WIN BETS: ELUSIVE KATE, DEAR LAVINIA, STOPSHOPPINGMARIA (this seems like a good race to NOT make a win bet on)
EXOTICS/MULTI-RACE BETS: DAYATTHESPA, SOMALI LEMONADE, SWEET CAT
Filly and Mare Sprint:
WIN BET: SWITCH
EXOTICS/MULTI-RACE BETS: TURBULENT DESCENT, POMEROYS PISTOL, TAR HEEL MOM, TAMARIND HALL
Juvenile Fillies:
WIN BETS: GRACE HALL, WEEMISSFRANKIE
EXOTICS/MULTI-RACE BETS: MISS NETTA, MY MISS AURELIA
Filly and Mare Turf:
WIN BET: NAHRAIN
EXOTICS/MULTI-RACE BETS: ANNOUNCE, STACELITA, DUBAWI HEIGHTS
Ladies' Classic:
WIN BET: IT'S TRICKY
INCLUDE: ROYAL DELTA, PACHATTACK, PLUM PRETTY
That's it for Part II of the inaugural Wothism Breeders' Cup Preview.
Check back tonight and tomorrow morning for the THRILLING conclusion and a recap of today's action.
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