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| Soldat is my pick to win The Run for the Roses this year. |
The truth is, however, that I've learned a lot in these three years. In the past year alone, I've read a handful of handicapping books and nearly ended up giving my daughter the middle name "Zenyatta" (yes, her name would be Clara Zenyatta Wothe if Zenyatta had gotten past Blame in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last November). I watch as many stakes races as I can, and I watch far more bottom barrel races than I care to admit.
As for the horses in this year's Kentucky Derby, I've known about most of them since they debuted last summer or fall. I've seen the majority of them run live multiple times, and I've watched replays of the few I haven't.
All of which is a short way to say that I FEEL like I should have a fairly good grasp on these horses and what they're capable of.
And all of which is a short way to say that I probably don't.
In fact, my increased knowledge probably only serves to make this preview harder to read for others. I'll talk about speed figures and pace and rating and splits and it will absolutely confuse most of the people who read this. So, in an effort to combat that, allow me to give a brief overview of SPEED FIGURES, PACE and WEATHER:
SPEED FIGURES: There are a few different sources for speed figures, but I use BRISnet's numbers. Speed figures exist to represent how fast a horse ran in a given race based upon how fast all other races at that track were run that day. Confused yet? Well, they exist because running one mile in 1:36 might actually be more impressive than running one mile in 1:35 depending on the track. For instance, Animal Kingdom won a race at Turfway Park at 1 1/8 miles in a time of 1:52 and received a speed figure of 97. Meanwhile, at Santa Anita, Anthony's Cross (a horse that ultimately didn't make the trip for the Derby) won a race at 1 1/8 miles in a time of 1:48. Yet Anthony's Cross had a speed figure of just 93! How can this be? Well, the Turfway track is just that much slower than Santa Anita. Speed figures allow us to account for the fact that some tracks are faster or slower than others on given days or all days depending on what the track consists of, how hot or cold it is, etc. The caveat with these figures is that they can sometimes be controversial (different methods for calculating them exist and don't always paint the same picture) and overemphasized by the public, but they give you at least a reasonable idea of how a horse performs on a race to race basis. The average winning speed figure in the Kentucky Derby is 107, which is in elite territory. To really over generalize, anything above 100 is great. 90-99 is good. 80-89 is OK. 70-79 is below average, and below 70 is generally garbage.
PACE: You may have heard the expression, "Pace makes the race." As it pertains to horse racing, we're talking mainly about early speed -- which will get to the front first, and how fast will they run for the first half of the race? Think of it this way: Imagine you have a friend who is a great sprinter and will always beat you in a 100 meter dash. But by yourselves, this same friend's best mile time is 9 minutes, whereas you can run it in 8 minutes. So you challenge your friend to a mile race. If you keep pressing his pace -- in other words, forcing him to continue to run fractions of two minutes per quarter mile -- he's going to wear out, and you'll eventually pass him around the 3/4 mile mark. However, if you lay back and let him run each fraction at 2:15, meaning that you've still got ground to make up at that 3/4 mile mark ... you're screwed. You're not going to outsprint your friend to the finish line. The same concept applies in horse racing. If you let a fast horse get away with an easy lead ... you're screwed. That fast horse will get to the lead, and then his jockey will pull him back to keep his lead within a length of the next horse -- the slower the better. That forces the horse to save his energy for the stretch run, and if he can save enough -- if nobody's pushing him along -- he's going to win. So, if there are a lot of fast horses in the race vying for the lead, that usually means one thing: they're all going to wear themselves out! Finally, I'll mention the opening quarter mile and half mile times often. Use the following as a frame of reference on a fast track: For the first quarter mile in a race at 1 1/4 miles, 22 seconds is blazingly/suicidally fast, 23 seconds is pretty quick, 24 seconds is probably slightly on the slow side, and 25 seconds would be pretty darn slow. For the half at 1 1/4 miles, 45 seconds would be ridiculously fast, 46 is quick/grueling, 47-48 is rather neutral and 48+ is pretty slow. Fast early splits favor closers, and slow early splits favor frontrunners.
WEATHER: Do I really need to define weather for you? In this case, yes. The Derby is fairly like to come up with a wet track on Saturday, and there are a few tools to handicap such a possibility. One is Tomlinson figures, which "rate a horse's off-track potential based on progeny of the sire and maternal grandsire. The higher the number, the better. A rating of 320+ means the horse merits further consideration as one that could run particularly well over a wet track."
Based on the Tomlinson figures, there are quite a few horses you could reasonably upgrade if it's raining in Louisville. Twice The Appeal is best in the field at 423, and he's followed by Uncle Mo at 419, Shackleford at 418, Mucho Macho Man at 415, Soldat at 407 and Watch Me Go at 402.
The lowest ranked runners in the field are Animal Kingdom at 260, Decisive Moment at 262, and Comma to the Top at 305.
All others are sandwiched between 398 (Archarcharch) and 334 (Master of Hounds).
Another way of approaching the weather is to use BRISnet's pedigree ratings to compare a horse's past performances on a fast track to what they might do on a wet track. Using this approach ...
Horses expected to improve on a west track are: Mucho Macho Man
Horses expected to fall off at least slightly are: ArchArchArch, Twice The Appeal, Decisive Moment, Dialed In, Derby Kitten, Twinspired, Master of Hounds, Santiva, Shackleford, Midnight Interlude, Animal Kingdom, Nehro, Watch Me Go
All others are expected to be no better or worse.
So, as you can see, this is far from an exact science. BRISnet would expect Twice The Appeal, the best Tomlinson-rated horse and a horse that has already won his only race on a wet track, to actually not do as well on an off track as he would on a fast track.
And just when you might be ready to throw out Animal Kingdom, note that some people expect him to improve on a wet track due to the clay content of the Churchill Downs strip giving off less kickback (which could be a problem on dry dirt) when it's wet. Yeesh.
All that considered, I would upgrade/downgrade horses on a make on a wet track as follows. If they're not mentioned, I either don't think they're necessarily better or worse on one or the other or I simply don't know.
Upgrade: Soldat, Mucho Macho Man, Pants On Fire, Stay Thirsty and Shackleford
Downgrade: Nehro, Santiva, Master of Hounds, Derby Kitten, Dialed In
So, keep all of that in the back of your mind as you read on. And, if the track comes up fast, forget about this portion entirely.
OK, enough of that. I'll sum up how I think the race will play out at the end, so if you want to skip the horse-by-horse breakdown, start scrolling. And scroll some more. And keep scrolling. Because this is LONG.
The one note I will make now about the complexion of this race is this: There are a number of horses in this race who seem to be unable to win from more than a length or two off the pace -- in other words, they're essentially NEED THE LEAD types. My belief is that there will be a number of horses gunning for that early lead, which would seem to indicate a pretty good possibility of a pace meltdown, not too unlike the Breeders' Cup Classic last year where four horses went nuts on the lead and all ran each other into the ground. So, keep that in mind as I break down the contestants.
FINALLY, before I get started: I opted to use odds from thegreek.com first (which are probably more accurate due to the fact that they have at least been determined through somewhat of a marketplace as opposed to one man's opinion) followed by the morning line. So, Archarcharch is 16-1 at Greek and 10-1 on the morning line.
Here we go:
1. Archarcharch (16-1/10-1): One of the few horses that should love the distance, ARCHARCHARCH has probably the perfect running style. He has won from close up and far back, so he should offer a fair amount of versatility. In three graded stakes tries, he has two wins and one third. The one subpar speed fig -- a 69 -- on his resume can be thrown out due to some dense fog that makes you question why they were even racing. Other than that, he's went 89-96-93-98-99. This is a game horse that seems to be on the uptick. There are two question marks. The first is the post position: Last year, the favorite, LOOKIN’ AT LUCKY, got hammered around as the rest of the field crashed over on him to get to the rail. ARCHARCHARCH probably won't try to be as forwardly placed, so that might help, but the one hole is pretty darn tough. The other big question I have is if ARCHARCHARCH is capable of the greatness that winning a Kentucky Derby requires. We know he's a solid horse, but that's all he may be -- he may lack that special IT factor. He's bred well enough, but he just hasn't submitted any eye-popping performances. Still, I can't find anything wrong here. I won't be betting him to win at this price, but he could round out some exotics.
2. Brilliant Speed (30-1/30-1): This horse won the Bluegrass on April 16, but man, that race was a joke. It played out like a turf race -- :50.2 for the first half mile -- and considering that BRILLIANT SPEED has made five of his eight career starts on turf, that's probably why he won it. He's bred for turf and is only in the Derby due to it being the Derby. The 97 speed fig in the Bluegrass was nice, but his only two actual dirt starts yielded speed figs of 74 and 60, which resulted in well-beaten 4th and 7th place finishes. This is one I feel pretty darn comfortable throwing out altogether.
3. Twice the Appeal (40-1/20-1): It took this horse SEVEN tries before he won a race. That’s a pretty bad sign. In his three-year-old season, though, he has two firsts and one second, all on dirt. That’s a pretty bad sign. In his three-year-old season, though, he has two firsts and one second, all on dirt. That’s more than you can say for many of the horses in this field. HOWEVER, the competition was surely the worst of any horse in the field. If the competition in the Derby is like the NFL, then the competition that most horses faced was like the SEC ... and TWICE THE APPEAL was playing Sun Belt teams. Or something like that. It's a huge class jump, and just because you can beat the Florida Atlantic's and Middle Tennessee's of the world does not mean you can beat the Florida's and Tennessee's. That's basically what you're looking at with TWICE THE APPEAL. The speed figs aren't great, but they do show steady improvement since he finally won -- 86-88-86-95 -- so you can make the argument that he's capable if he runs his best race. He has a favorable running style for the Derby, as he's rallied from fourth or worse in all of his wins. And the X factor for this horse is that Calvin Borel has the mount. Borel, as even my grandma knows, is the master of the Kentucky Derby. He has won three of the last four runnings of the Derby, including with MINE THAT BIRD in 2009. Both MTB and TWICE THE APPEAL came out of the Sunland Derby, a generally overlooked prep race. But TWICE THE APPEAL actually WON that race, while MTB finished fourth. Believe it or not, though, that's exactly why I won't bet TWICE THE APPEAL. The public knows Borel and will overbet him. I would bet that, as the morning line indicates, this closes under 30-1 simply due to the Borel factor. And so an intriguing longshot will lose all of its value.
4. Stay Thirsty (22-1/20-1): Horse racing is a funny game. When Mike Repole dished out $500,000 to buy STAY THIRSTY in Feb. 2010, he thought he was buying the next Derby winner. The only other horses that were purchased for more than $200,000 were UNCLE MO and DIALED IN ... you know, the two favorites. STAY THIRSTY even has the same trainer as UNCLE MO: supertrainer Todd Pletcher. He's regally bred by BERNARDINI and has the finest trainer money can buy. And somehow he's been totally average. Two wins and two seconds in six starts isn't bad, but his flop in the Florida Derby was pretty pathetic -- a 7th place finish and an 82 speed fig. He was also an even 5th at last year's BC Juvenile, and considering that those two races are the most indicative of the competition he'll face in the Derby, it's hard to believe he'll become the first horse since 1957 to finish worse than fourth in his final Derby prep to win the Roses. On the other hand, he has the pedigree. He should love the distance. He rallied from 4th to win the Gotham over TOBY'S CORNER. He has been working extremely well at Churchill Downs in the past week. I'm not sure I like it in the 20-1 range, but STAY THIRSTY could be an interesting longshot at 25-1 or 30-1.
5. Decisive Moment (60-1/30-1): A speedball who figures to go out for the early lead and not much else. If COMMA TO THE TOP doesn’t drive him into the ground by the half mile, another horse will run by him after that. DECISIVE MOMENT did run a solid second in the Spiral, but that was on the fake stuff. His most Derby-like race to date was the Risen Star, where he finished fifth, well-beaten by MUCHO MACHO MAN and SANTIVA. I don’t see how he belongs in this field at all.
6. Comma to the Top (30-1/30-1): I took a chance on a horse like this last year -- CONVEYANCE. Like CONVEYANCE, COMMA TO THE TOP will almost absolutely make the lead early and set a blistering pace. CONVEYANCE led at the midway point, and even at the 3/4 mile mark. And then he fell apart. COMMA TO THE TOP sure appears to be the exact same kind of horse, and he is 100 percent bred for sprint races. On top of that, quite frankly, COMMA TO THE TOP isn't even that well-bred in the grand scheme of things. COMMA TO THE TOP has shown some grit in past races and might have a BIT more fight in him than CONVEYANCE, but seeing as how he was stopping badly in the Santa Anita at 1 1/8, I see absolutely no way he gets 1 1/4.
7. Pants On Fire (35-1/20-1): At first glance, PANTS ON FIRE seems rather overlooked to me. He beat NEHRO and MUCHO MACHO MAN in the Louisiana Derby while nearly on the lead with some pretty fast fractions. So, naturally, part of you says, well, if you like NEHRO or MUCHO MACHO MAN, why not take a horse that beat both in his last race and has a better price? The speed figs are strong enough: 102-91-92-89-97. I start to get excited. Then I consider the negatives. He WAS beaten by MUCHO MACHO MAN in the Risen Star, and it was so soundly, at 7 1/4 lengths back, that it's hard to give him any benefit for being extremely wide in both turns. There's also a concern about PANTS ON FIRE's layoff, as that Louisiana Derby win came all the way back on March 26. Then there's my real concern: He hasn't really passed horses since his first-ever race. If you look at his first call position (after two furlongs in sprints – less than a mile – and four furlongs in routes – more than a mile) to his finishing position in each of his eight races, it's a bit sobering: the first race, he moved up from 7th to 2nd. Second: 4th to 4th. Third: 1st to 1st. Then 1st to 2nd, 1st to 3rd, 1st to 2nd, 7th to 6th, and 2nd to 1st. In other words, he just doesn’t pass other horses late in races. He does his best early and then holds on. So, realistically, we know this colt is going to have to be on or almost on the lead for 1 1/4 miles to win -- and he hasn't run for quite a while, so it would seem he might not be as sharp as a horse that ran more recently. And in a race with pace like this one figures to have, not being quite as sharp as perhaps he could be and then trying to run on the lead just seems nearly impossible. Finally, he's also not as well-bred as many others in the field, and it's just really hard to envision PANTS ON FIRE getting the race he needs to win. Women should note that the jockey for PANTS ON FIRE is a female. A woman has never won the Kentucky Derby, but they also rarely get a chance to ride -- Rosie Napravnik is just the sixth female jockey to ever get a Derby mount and the first since 2003. It should also be noted that the best finish by a female jockey in six starts to date (Julie Krone had two mounts) is 11th. That said, my second biggest problem with this horse is the fact that he has a female jockey, and it has nothing to do with sexism. Rather, it’s because I would expect your average female fan to find out that there's a woman jockey and say, "Hey, there's a girl in this race? Let's bet on her!" It happens with fillies in the race every year, and a jockey will likely be much the same. Combined with the apparent inability to pass horses, this might not be great value.
8. Dialed In (4-1/4-1): This horse has done nothing wrong, and yet has proven nearly nothing. His best speed figures of 101 and 104 are among the best in the field, but with just four races under his belt, there are plenty of questions. He beat a few good horses in winning the Florida Derby (SOLDAT, TO HONOR AND SERVE and SHACKLEFORD), but the race absolutely couldn't have set up better for him. DIALED IN is a closer that will be well back early and needs a quick early pace to run into, so he does at least have that going for him. In four lifetime starts -- three at a mile or longer -- he has won three, with the lone loss coming on March 6 at 1 1/8. The difference between that race and his three wins? The early splits. In the three wins, the pace after half a mile was 45.4 seconds, 46.2 and 46.2. In the loss, which came against much lesser competition, the pace after half a mile was 49.4 seconds. As previously stated, I think this race will have a pretty blistering early pace, so the fractions will almost certainly be closer to 46 than 49. However, even with fast early fractions (half mile in 46.2), DIALED IN was barely able to overtake front running longshot SHACKLEFORD in the Florida Derby win. I like SHACKLEFORD a lot and Gulfstream Park (where the Florida Derby is contested) favors frontrunners, but that makes you wonder just how good DIALED IN actually is. They say you can't fault a horse for winning, but that doesn't mean you have to bet on an overbet favorite. I might use DIALED IN on the bottom of some exotics, but there’s too much traffic to negotiate in the Derby to play a closer at this price.
9. Derby Kitten (52-1/30-1): Considering that this horse only got into the field with the defection of TOBY’S CORNER, a horse that would have been a fairly legit contender but was withdrawn with an injury, it's hard to give him DERBY KITTEN much consideration. DERBY KITTEN’s lone career race on real dirt resulted in a speed fig of 68 and a seventh-place finish. This looks like a potentially decent turf horse, and his win on the fake stuff in the Lexington on April 23 serves to bolster that theory. The one good thing I can say about this horse is that he shouldn't have a problem with the distance. That's all.
10. Twinspired (52-1/30-1): Since we decided we’re throwing out the Blue Grass (see BRILLIANT SPEED) TWINSPIRED’s other best speed figure is among the worst “bests” in the field at 90 … and even that was on the fake stuff. His lone dirt start came against pretty weak competition back in December, and he posted a speed fig of 80 while finishing eighth. As for the Blue Grass, you do have to say that he lost it in fairly impressive rallying fashion … but whatever. It was just a joke 100 times over. And-considering that it was TWINSPIRED’s best performance – his other was a well-beaten third place finish in the Spiral Stakes, where he was bested by Animal Kingdom and Decisive Moment – you can’t hang your hat on the Blue Grass at all. This is another one that should like the distance better than many of the other horses in the field, but it’s asking way too much to think Twinspired could win. Forget about it.
11. Master of Hounds (14-1/30-1): Certainly the hardest read in the field, as past performances tell us little to nothing in the first place -- he's a shipper from England, so the usual data about splits and positions is not on the past performance sheets -- and even less about this horse's ability to handle dirt, as he's never run on the real stuff. His only non-turf start was actually quite impressive: a second-place finish in the UAE Derby, which is run at 1 3/16 miles and contested over the Tapeta surface in Dubai. The tough thing with this horse is that he has TONS of class in his bloodlines, so there's something to be considered here. Normally, a Euro shipper can be pretty much summarily tossed – no Euro invader has ever won the Derby – but he’s pretty easily the classiest horse in the field. Additionally, we CAN tell from the notes that he will likely be placed anywhere from 3rd to 8th or so, which I still do believe is theoretically the best spot to be in the Derby (I prefer mid-pack to way back because of the myriad traffic issues in this race). So these are all positive things. In watching the UAE Derby, though, it becomes obvious that it was run completely differently than the Kentucky Derby will be. The first quarter was run in TWENTY SIX seconds! Truly slow. You can't entirely discount his second-place finish, but he was basically jogging around out there in a forwardly-placed position in third, about a length off the lead. It set up perfectly for him. So it's not quite as impressive as it would be at first glance. Additionally, this is a horse with just one win in seven starts. In his lone U.S. start to date, the BC Juvenile Turf last November, he was sixth, beaten by SOLDAT on a surface that he really SHOULD be better on. At 14-1, I’ll probably pass. At 30-1 like the morning line indicates? Uh, yes, please.
12. Santiva (32-1/30-1): For the last time: Let's just agree to toss out the Blue Grass as a race that can teach us anything. And if you ignore that ninth-place finish as a favorite, SANTIVA is an interesting horse. He ran a pretty impressive race in finishing second in the Risen Star – and if he hadn't given up so much ground going 4-5 wide in both turns, you can definitely argue that he would have beaten MUCHO MACHO MAN. SANTIVA is pretty well-bred and should love the Derby distance. The biggest concern with this one would be the lack of an eye-popping speed figure, as his best was 96 in the Risen Star. I also have concerns about the light race schedule, but that’s not so unlike many others in this field. Finally, SANTIVA has shown the ability to rate (sit back behind other speed horses rather than just go all out early trying to beat them), and he also showed early speed and the ability to carry it through 1 1/16 in the Jockey Club at Churchill last November. I love that versatility in this race. Ultimately, the only race I really care to draw any conclusions from is the Risen Star. And given that long route he took around both turns, I would posit that SANTIVA is around the same level as MUCHO MACHO MAN, a horse you’ll read more about in a minute. MUCHO MACHO MAN is in the 12-1 to 14-1 range. At 20-1 or better, SANTIVA is worth a look.
13. Mucho Macho Man (14-1/12-1): This horse is tough to figure for a few reasons. MUCHO MACHO MAN has only two wins in eight starts despite not always facing the greatest competition, and he has already been beaten by PANTS ON FIRE, NEHRO and DIALED IN. On the surface, it's hard to envision that third win coming against the Derby field. I’m not terribly impressed with his breeding and I don't think the distance is his forte. Finally, this is the youngest horse in the field. All horses age another year on January 1 – so even if a horse is born in the summer or fall, they turn 1 year old at the New Year. Because of that, most Derby horses are foaled early in the year, or at least spring. This one is a June colt. Even a non-fan could look at MUCHO MACHO MAN next to some of the other horses here and notice that he looks young and a bit undeveloped physically. That said, the speed figs have been consistently good since last November -- 97-101-98-97-96 -- and he's a near-the-lead-but-not-on-it type that figures to do well here. In all of his starts in 2011, the PP comments indicate at least mildly troubled trips: "Bumped hard chute" "3-4 w2nd trn" "3w turns." That makes me interested. I like horses that have experienced some trouble but still performed well. And yet … in his two wins, he was within a length and a half of the lead the entire race. That’s going to be too close in this race. Can he rate and come from 5-8 lengths back? I’m not betting on it unless I can get 20-1 or higher. That said, if MUCHO MACHO MAN does happen to win the Derby, look out -- he's only going to mature and get better.
14. Shackleford (12-1/12-1): Argh. 12-1?!?!? Even just last week, the “predicted” morning line for SHACKLEFORD was 40-1. I LOVED that idea. At 12-1, my whole approach to writing this horse up has changed. In his first actual dirt start, he broke his maiden at Churchill last fall with a speed fig of 93 at 25/1. After winning an allowance race at 1 1/8 miles in his first start of the year off the layoff (speed fig 94), SHACKLEFORD didn't get much respect in the Fountain of Youth (he was sent off at 17-1) and eventually finished 5th in a race that Soldat won. SHACKLEFORD only turned in a speed fig of 77 there after running a very pedestrian race. In the Florida Derby, he impressed the hell out of me, though. At 68-1, he ran a ridiculously great race on the lead and was only narrowly beat by DIALED IN at the wire. The fractions were quite honest in that race, too -- 23.3 for the quarter and 46.35 for the half -- and yet he just kept pushing on and put away other competitors at the top of the stretch. He should love this distance. He has looked amazing in his tune-up workouts for the Derby. On the other hand, Gulfstream was a frontrunner’s paradise and that Florida Derby performance may be more of an indictment of DIALED IN than anything. He was sent off at 68-1 in his last race against overall competition much worse than this. The betting public is often wrong, but THIS wrong? I don’t think so. I need at least 25-1 and I’m praying that I get it.
15. Midnight Interlude (8-1/10-1): I'm pretty sure that all of the California runners are frauds this year, and MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE was 11-1 in the Santa Anita Derby before winning it by beating COMMA TO THE TOP in somewhat hilarious fashion – COMMA TO THE TOP was basically falling all over himself trying to get to the line, and MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE almost ran him over from behind before being sharply corrected mid-stretch and nosing him out. The speed figs are OK at 83-93-92-98, but that first race came on January 11, and I have to wonder if this horse couldn't use a break at this point. In any event, expecting Midnight Interlude to ship across the U.S. and beat far better horses than he's ever faced at less than 10-1 is silly. (I will now guarantee that this horse wins after I totally dismissed him.)
16. Animal Kingdom (25-1/30-1): One of the most lightly raced horses in the field with only four career starts, ANIMAL KINGDOM appears to be quite well-bred, and the speed figs are strong at 70-93-96-97. I like that show of steady improvement, and he is coming off a win at 1 1/8 miles in the Spiral. So why is he here at 25-1? Well, three of the four starts -- and all of the 90+ speed fig starts -- came on polytrack or turf. That's a definite concern and question mark, but he did handle the dirt well in a 6 furlong work last Saturday in 1:13. His running style seems to fit the preferred profile, as he has been 10th, 2nd, 4th and 7th at the first call in his starts before rallying for 2nd, 1st, 2nd and 1st. He also looked extremely visually impressive in winning the Spiral, where he defeated TWINSPIRED and DECISIVE MOMENT. But if you’ve been paying attention, you already know that's the problem: beating those two doesn’t say much, and those are the best that ANIMAL KINGDOM has faced. So even if you’re comfortable declaring that he's obviously better than those two, it's a long leap to say that this apparent turf horse can win this race. Then again, the competition is not exactly stout this year, and the same legitimate questions apply to MASTER OF HOUNDS. As with MASTER OF HOUNDS, 30-1 with this horse is a yes, please.
17. Soldat (14-1/12-1): If I could make just one bet in this race, it would be on SOLDAT. After one bad race after he washed out (got extremely hot and sweaty) pre-race as the favorite in the Florida Derby (over DIALED IN, by the way), SOLDAT is up here at 12-1 or 14-1? I love it! So that I don’t get too over-exuberant, I should note that SOLDAT didn't have much of an excuse for his fifth-place finish in the race itself. He had no problems with the trip, had room to run at the top of the stretch ... and just didn't. So, that's a concern, but all indications are that this horse LOVES the cooler weather in Kentucky and looks like a million bucks. My other semi-concern with SOLDAT, once again, is that this may actually be a horse that’s better on turf! He ran second to PLUCK in the BC Juvenile Turf last year. The fact is, though, that SOLDAT has proven himself on dirt. He was favored in each of his last three races, and went on to win two of them with extremely impressive speed figs of 104 and 108. In eight career starts, he has three wins and four seconds. All that said, I do have one major worry: those two huge speed figs came in front running efforts, and he hasn’t shown the ability to pass horses late on dirt. And I don’t want anything to do with frontrunners in this race. The real question is this: If SOLDAT is cool on Derby day, can he sit fifth like he did in the Florida Derby, but this time explode home when he’s called upon? That remains a pretty big question, but sometimes you just have a hunch. I don’t love the post position, especially if Uncle Mo gets the jump on him and gets in front of him, but I don’t think there’s a horse in the field that has proven more in his three-year-old season to date than SOLDAT. That’s a risk I’m willing to take at 12-1.
UPDATE 5/6: UNCLE MO HAS BEEN SCRATCHED (See end of post for details)! 18. Uncle Mo (5-1/9-2): There is now some doubt whether UNCLE MO will even make the start on Saturday, adding to the intrigue with this horse. Last fall, he looked like the next great horse. UNCLE MO won every race he ran last year (he ran three), including the Breeders Cup Juvenile, by at least four lengths (including his maiden by 14 lengths). Then, he debuted in 2011 with another comfortable win, although it was only by 3 3/4 lengths. And then came his collapse as a 1-10 favorite in the Wood Memorial. Later, it came out that he had an infection -- at least according to his connections. So, is he SECRETARIAT or just a horse that everyone else caught up to? His speed figures went from 110-102-110 in his sophomore year to 95-96 this year. Was he sick in the Wood? Maybe, maybe not. Does he have the highest ceiling in this field? Probably. If he can give his best (accusations of pin firing this horse and medications are swirling like crazy), he should win. That’s something you can’t discount, and his last workout at Churchill Downs was outstandingly good. The issues are that we don’t know if he can give his best. Despite the big speed figs at more than a mile last year, 1 1/16 is a whole different game than 1 1/4 in horse racing, and UNCLE MO isn’t bred for this distance. Additionally, even if he can make the distance, he’s either been on the lead at the first call or in second in every race he’s ever ran. Can he battle with COMMA TO THE TOP and DECISIVE MOMENT and SHACKLEFORD, put them away, and still have enough left in the tank to hold off DIALED IN and NEHRO? That’s a darn tough sell at 5-1 with the distance and health questions. There’s a part of me that is screaming that this horse could absolutely destroy this field. And he could. But I have too many questions to bet this horse at single digits.
19. Nehro (14-1/6-1): People are in love with this horse, and I just don't see it. NEHRO didn't run at all until December, and then finished fourth and tenth in his first two starts. He finally won his third start before closing like a freight train in his past two starts to finish second by a neck both times. But that's just it -- SECOND. His speed figures have been 80-57-88-96-99. So, sure, you see the improvement. I suppose you could argue that if he keeps improving, he’ll run in the 105 range and be right there. He is fairly well-bred and should like the distance, and it’s easy to see why folks think he’ll only get better with more room to run. But that usually doesn’t happen in the Derby. I used to be smitten by horses like these -- the TIAGO's and PYRO's of the world that came with tremendous runs late from deep in the pack -- but there's so much traffic in the Derby that it's really asking a lot for a deep closer to get there. ICE BOX closed like no other in last year's Derby and just ran out of time. NEHRO can hit the board, for sure, but he'd have to get awfully lucky to get the win.
20. Watch Me Go (102-1/50-1): Last May 22, this horse put up a 100 speed fig in its first start and appeared like it might be one to watch. Instead, it's a performance that simply hasn't been matched. Since that maiden win, WATCH ME GO has three wins in nine starts, with the most impressive coming in the Tampa Bay Derby at odds of nearly 44-1. That race at 1 1/16 aside, though, this looks like a sprint horse to me. Every other win came at 6 1/2 furlongs or less, and a fading sixth place finish at 1 1/8 in the Illinois Derby, hardly a hotbed for Derby talent in the first place, seems to bolster that view. Finally, much like Twice the Appeal, Watch Me Go is making a big class jump. I'm pretty comfortable tossing this one out.
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Whether you’re still with me or just skipped ahead, I appreciate it. So where does this all leave us? Let’s break this down by where I expect certain horses to be at the first call of the race:
PACE SETTERS: COMMA TO THE TOP, DECISIVE MOMENT, SHACKLEFORD
SECOND TIER: UNCLE MO, SOLDAT, PANTS ON FIRE
THIRD TIER: MUCHO MACHO MAN, MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE, SANTIVA, MASTER OF HOUNDS, STAY THIRSTY
FOURTH TIER: WATCH ME GO, ANIMAL KINGDOM, TWICE THE APPEAL, ARCHARCHARCH
WELL BACK: TWINSPIRED, BRILLIANT SPEED, DERBY KITTEN, DIALED IN, NEHRO
It’s tough because many of the horses in that second and third tier could be sent forward based on past failures to rate. Or they could be held back because everyone knows COMMA TO THE TOP and DECISIVE MOMENT are just cheap speed in this race. Frankly, I think it’s suicide for horses to get involved in that early duel, and I think most of the connections realize this.
As the field hits the final turn and things start to happen, I expect COMMA TO THE TOP and DECISIVE MOMENT to make fairly quick exits, with SHACKLEFORD getting tackled by UNCLE MO and SOLDAT. PANTS ON FIRE won’t be much of a match as MUCHO MACHO MAN, SANTIVA, MASTER OF HOUNDS and STAY THIRSTY begin to roll.
Somewhere along the way as some of these early pacesetters fall back like they’re dying, one or more of that fourth tier or the closers is going to be forced to check and ruin their momentum. In that moment, their race will be lost.
SHACKLEFORD gets overtaken by UNCLE MO and SOLDAT midway through the turn and begins his own descent back in the field.
At the top of the stretch, I expect UNCLE MO, SOLDAT, SANTIVA and MUCHO MACHO MAN to be the clear contenders heading the field with ANIMAL KINGDOM and ARCHARCHARCH looking like the main threats to run them down from behind.
As he did in the Wood Memorial, UNCLE MO will be asked for more and come up empty. MUCHO MACHO MAN will continue to run hard but lack that extra kick. SANTIVA will soldier on for home with vigor, but SOLDAT will begin to pull away.
ARCHARCHARCH will run past a few of the fading horses but lack the full closing ability to make up the gap. ANIMAL KINGDOM will be closing furiously, but SOLDAT will stay on as the wire draws near.
I’m truly assuming that either DIALED IN or NEHRO, or both, will run into serious traffic issues. That said, the early pace should set up well for them and I think they can certainly make it interesting late with a huge late run, a la ICE BOX last year.
With a looping run, DIALED IN or NEHRO will enter the picture on the outside and threaten late, but it’s SOLDAT holding off one of that duo and ANIMAL KINGDOM to win the Kentucky Derby.
At least that's how I roughly expect it to play out. Last year, I was pretty close to spot on with Noble's Promise striking the front as the field turned for home ... only he hung as Super Saver rolled by him on the inside. So close.
Anyway, taking ALL of the above into account, my HOTLY ANTICIPATED picks are:
Currently worthy of win bets:
SANTIVA
ANIMAL KINGDOM
SOLDAT
Close to worthy:
MASTER OF HOUNDS
STAY THIRSTY
I’ll consider these if prices change significantly:
PANTS ON FIRE
MUCHO MACHO MAN
ARCHARCHARCH
TWICE THE APPEAL
SHACKLEFORD
UNCLE MO
Horses I won’t bet under any circumstances:
WATCH ME GO
NEHRO
DIALED IN
MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE
TWINSPIRED
DERBY KITTEN
BRILLIANT SPEED
DECISIVE MOMENT
COMMA TO THE TOP
I don't much get into the idea of exotics in a 20-horse race, but for the hell of it, my superfecta is SOLDAT-ANIMAL KINGDOM-DIALED IN-ARCHARCHARCH.
And after writing more than 7,100 words and filling 13 pages of a Word document, that's all I've got. I have bestowed every bit of my useless insight unto you. You can now regale other people who don't care about horse racing with your newfound knowledge.
If you're betting on the race, good luck. If you're betting on any of my selections, you'll need even more luck.
Finally, remember: Derby Day is the best day of the year. Live it up!
UPDATE 5/6: UNCLE MO has officially scratched. That's actually kind of too bad, as he was certain to attract plenty of money just for being the biggest name in the Derby. On the other hand, that's one less big question mark we have to deal with. I like SOLDAT even more now, however. As I mentioned, I felt he was the most talented colt in the field other than UNCLE MO. The health question that hung over UNCLE MO made me a bit hesitant: If he was healthy and at his best, he could take down SOLDAT. Now, I think if SOLDAT gets his trip, he's the best colt here.
UPDATE 5/7: The forecast is for scattered showers throughout the day at Churchill Downs, but Track Superintendent Butch Lehr says that he should be able to keep the track labeled FAST if the predicted amount of precipitation is what actually falls. I love SOLDAT regardless, but some would argue he's only deserving of an upgrade if the track comes up sloppy.
The other thing of note is that the odds are unbelievably nutty. TWICE THE APPEAL is at 9-1 currently. PANTS ON FIRE is at 7-1. I sort of liked PANTS ON FIRE at 15-1 or 20-1, but my goodness. Hilarious. Now at 22-1, I'll likely take a shot on SHACKLEFORD.
SANTIVA remains juicy at 32-1 and SOLDAT is currently at 14-1. ANIMAL KINGDOM, unfortunately, has been bet down a bit to 20-1.
Those are my final four, though: SOLDAT, SANTIVA, ANIMAL KINGDOM and SHACKLEFORD.
The bets on SANTIVA, ANIMAL KINGDOM and SHACKLEFORD will be relatively small.
In a 20-horse field, nothing is a sure thing. Far from it. But I just love SOLDAT. Yeah, he might not win. He might not even come close. But I feel really good about this one. In year's past, I've ended up with a good bit of action in the Derby based on matchups, exactas, trifectas, etc. This year, I'm skipping all of that. It all goes to SOLDAT.
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